Russian special military operation in Ukraine #8

LMFS wrote:
Fully agree, such artificial country is doomed like a house built over a tectonic fault, not to talk about it being an antirussian device from its inception. Western part (the real one, not the one created through indoctrination) can be a neutral, non ideological and demilitarized region loosely associated to the West, that is Galicia. The rest is Russian in the broad sense of the term since the times of the Rus and has no future as some tool of the West.

LMFS wrote:Shown in the Polish TV:



https://en.topwar.ru/193936-polskoe-televidenie-pokazalo-kartu-razdela-ukrainy.html

flamming_python wrote:

Arrow wrote:Given the very tough fights in Mariupol, will Russia capture Odessa and Kharkiv?  These are much larger cities.  There will be huge losses of both military and civilian .  So what could be the future of Russia?  Currently, they are unable to overthrow the government in Kiev or capture Kharkiv or Odessa? Unless they reckon with huge losses.In addition, large damage to the city infrastructure.

Latest news I heard is that Russia won't try to capture cities outside the DNR/LNR

Rather it's removing the Ukrainian military's ability to fight and is focused on giving it no option other than to capitulate

flamming_python wrote:

par far wrote:

flamming_python wrote:Apparently Macron together with Turkey and Greece are organizing an evacuation mission for 'anyone willing' from Mariupol, and Macron will meet with Putin about it over the next 2-3 days

Well I don't think Azov will hold out another 2-3 days. But sure, they can lay down their arms, go to the port and wait to be picked up if they wish. Don't see the problem, if it means more lives and infrastructure can be saved

Azov and Nazis won't be allowed to leave, they need to stand for their war crimes.

Yeah I get that too

And that Azov will likely just be redeployed back to the Ukraine after a rest. There is no santiation zone for these types like in Idlib as yet.

The city is mostly destroyed now as they refused to leave when offered initially.

And now that the damage is done and lives lost, Macron swoops in with the offer

I dunno. It could still save Russian/DNR soldiers lives, civilian lives, and lessen the cost of reconstruction. And could open the door for more such deals later on. As the West is starting to come around to the idea of a negotiated settlement with Russia over the Ukraine.

Well, I'll leave it up to Putin. His call

d_taddei2 wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Wrong again dumbass. I just checked Wikipedia and my figures are not the same. Do some research. Your credibility on this forum is nil your were proved to be a fraud, so anything u say carries no Weight. The Merc figure was provided my western media and Ukraine the actual numbers we will never know and the level of professionalism we will never know all we know is that they are running away and dying. But I guess u being Mr green beret know it and will tell us the right figure

Border guards wasn't included in army numbers. U have never been to Ukraine, I have been multiple times police are everywhere in metro system your also tripping over them you think with a population of Ukraine has that the police force numbers are big (which clearly u haven't understood)   Clearly dumb.

And u got your figures straight out of your ass made up in that lying head of yours.

The national guard u think is at 20k now come don't get more dumb it was higher than that before the war.

Biggest dumb thing u did was failed to count the reserves, and the forced conscription.

And failed to remember when the prime minister signed a decree to increase armed forces years ago bringing the national guard and armed forces total to 360,000 (that's without territorial defence forces or border guards)

But you claim my figures are false maybe you can show me why they are wrong show me the evidence.

Had I provided a Russian source u would try to say it bias, post a Ukrainian or western media source u say the same, u turn things to whenever it suits u. Well I provided a UN source that's as about neutral source your going to get on the internet.

Many on here know you as the Walter Mitty of the forum who was caught lying and has zero credibility a sort of jester of the forum is the more fitting role for u on the forum.

Your bitter because USA who u clearly worship had failed all its military campaigns and killed more civilians than Russian campaigns ever did. And the USA had went from being run by trump to a senile corrupted democrat who's closest ally is a fat clown in downing Street. USA has become a laughing stock.

Your denial of Ukrainian numbers is troll like. If you really think Ukrainian combined forces at best (as you clearly stated) is at 330k then your severely addicted to the crack pipe. The Kiev post(news rag) had already confirmed that before forced conscription that 100,000 volunteers had joined the territorial defence forces.

Even CNN a d Reuters did articles saying Ukrainian combined forces at 360k (more than your at best figure) and around 900k combined reservists.

And let's not forget these forces were given 8yrs training by NATO forces, 8yrs to dig in, and billions in aid, weapons Inc anti tank and MANPADS. And slowly crumbling. Russia hasn't deployed it's full force or its reservists, and of course no border guards or police obviously in Ukraine.

Another point

As for police forces, one thing I have noticed in the ex Soviet countries I have been to they all have a high number of police forces, I put this down to most have a president who is corrupt and needs a large police force to maintain public order and it's also a hark back to the Soviet era where they had high police numbers. Police forces tend not to be based on landmass but rather population. Taking two ex Soviet large countries
Ukraine and Kazakhstan although the latters landmass is majority uninhabited, the population of Ukraine at around 40-43m depending on sources and Kazakhstan at around 20m. Kazakhstan some years ago reduced it's police force by 10% bringing down to around 84k

"Kasymov said that once the cutbacks had been implemented, there would be 424 policemen per 100,000 citizens, instead of the current 471. This would bring Kazakhstan closer to the United Nations-recommended ratio of 300 policemen per 100,000 citizens, he said."

And just out of interest if we applied the same formula on Ukraine
Let's say population of 41m and use the 300/100k formula
= 123,000 police so actually it's pretty accurate.

And let's not forget Ukraine increased is police recruitment after 2014. Which anyone would expect due to the circumstances.

https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-cuts-police-numbers-turns-to-public-for-help

In 2006, an analysis by the United Nations indicates an approximate median of 300 police officers per 100,000 inhabitants. Only nine countries disclosed values lower than 100 officers per 100,000 inhabitants. The highest median of police officers – around 400 – was observed in West Asia, Eastern and Southern Europe The median of police officers per population remained stable between 2002 and 2006, after an increase between 1995 and 2002

https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/Tenth-CTS-full.html

Enough said. Just because you don't want to accept figures and just because the figure u want it to be isn't what it is. Doesn't mean it's not real.

For me I don't care about the numbers, good quality and well supported troops are easily turn the tide of battle to a larger force which are untrained and poorly equipped. Having large numbers can slow things down only but it won't win the war. And let's face it zelensky has blood on his hands for sending untrained poorly equipped civilians into this war.

I only need to point out one fact to disprove all of your BS here.

You are taking Kazakhstan and trying to apply that to Ukraine when they are different countries and there is ABSOUTELLETY NO statistics to support Ukraine is running the same model.

Basically, you are making up figures which is a lie. So no "dumbass" You lied and your numbers are inaccurate and based upon, the knowledge you do not have and made up and yes your number are the same, depends which wiki you are using I guess.

Lol the Kiev post that is your source? xD that's a dam joke, like I wouldm't trust a thing that comes from  Keiv government paper.

Are you that ignorant? so you believe them when it suits you but then don't when it doesn't. You know there is a term for that and its not a nice one.

Ah so because I am from the west, I am salty, that's all people like you can resort it when your BS gets called out isn't it "because he is from the west, he mad therefore he wrong and I am right"

What a childish thing to say, where I am from has no bearing on the facts. I didn't lie you did, I didn't make up numbers based upon how a separate sovereign state is running their shit, you did. I did not take clearly propaganda from a Keiv backed newspaper which is clearly designed to make the civis believe all well have fact, YOU DID.

You want me to believe they are 20k mercs? THEN SHOW ME HARD ASS PROOF, Because has of right NOW NONE EXISTENTS TO SUPPORT THAT CLAIM.

So naw buddy, you made the fool of yourself not me

LMFS wrote:Fully agree, such artificial country is doomed like a house built over a tectonic fault, not to talk about it being an antirussian device from its inception. Western part (the real one, not the one created through indoctrination) can be a neutral, non ideological and demilitarized region loosely associated to the West, that is Galicia. The rest is Russian in the broad sense of the term since the times of the Rus and has no future as some tool of the West.

flamming_python wrote:

LMFS wrote:
Fully agree, such artificial country is doomed like a house built over a tectonic fault, not to talk about it being an antirussian device from its inception. Western part (the real one, not the one created through indoctrination) can be a neutral, non ideological and demilitarized region loosely associated to the West, that is Galicia. The rest is Russian in the broad sense of the term since the times of the Rus and has no future as some tool of the West.

No it's a real thing. Ukrainians as a people have long existed, and the idea of a Ukrainian national state was around in the Russian Empire, encouraged after the Polish revolt in 1861 began and with Polish agitation about the re-establishment of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. It was more a fringe intellectual movement at the time, but Ukrainians, the Ukrainian language, etc.. were all real

The trouble really began in 1991. The Galicians, the far Western Ukrainians, assumed control over ideology and nation-building, and spread their vile anti-Russian identity to the rest of the country with school education, political technologies, etc.. but this stuff and associated nationalists were not in overall command until 2014, until then they were used more as a tool and looked upon as a bit funky by the rest of the Ukraine.

Here Russia is at fault too, for taking the Crimea and thereby presenting itself as a threat, but that was kind of unavoidable. The Maidan shitheads only cemented themselves and their presentation of reality from then on.

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia counted on the "international" reaction (EU/US sphere), hence the sanction-proofing over the past half decade.

They aren't taking major cities because that's not the plan. They're destroying the UA military, it's a pacification. For now.

crod wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Arrow wrote:Given the very tough fights in Mariupol, will Russia capture Odessa and Kharkiv?  These are much larger cities.  There will be huge losses of both military and civilian .  So what could be the future of Russia?  Currently, they are unable to overthrow the government in Kiev or capture Kharkiv or Odessa? Unless they reckon with huge losses.In addition, large damage to the city infrastructure.

Latest news I heard is that Russia won't try to capture cities outside the DNR/LNR

Rather it's removing the Ukrainian military's ability to fight and is focused on giving it no option other than to capitulate

One wonders if that can be seen as a victory or even doable. From the outside it looks like Russia failed to take any major city.
The entire thing looks like a cluster **** from start to finish and has now left Russia completely isolated from the world. It underestimated at every turn: the Ukrainian response and capabilities, the scope of international sanctions and the resolve of the West. I’ve no idea how many are dead but was it worth it? Were 5 generals really killed? Problems run deep it would appear in the Russian military apparatus. What a mess. And here’s the thing, if the reports are accurate re scaling back ops, the Ukrainian military have more than enough anti armour and other weapons plus a shed load other support coming to them to wreak havoc in those sooner to be annexed districts.
What a bloody shambles. It can not be sold as anything but.



***Auslander, as a parent you have my deepest sympathy on the loss of your children***

crod wrote:

Dr.Snufflebug wrote:Russia counted on the "international" reaction (EU/US sphere), hence the sanction-proofing over the past half decade.

They aren't taking major cities because that's not the plan. They're destroying the UA military, it's a pacification. For now.

Then why were they attempting to break into Kiev et al. It looks like shifting goal posts to me. They’ve taken a hiding around the cities with news of some towns being retaken. The entire thing looks illplanned to me. Went too far with poor logistics, got stretched and met with very stiff resistance from a very determined and committed defence force.
Sanctions factored in? It’s causing re hardship for the Russian people and industry. Even Chinese industry pulling out of some projects. If you can’t see the long term hurt here you never will. I’m sure the Chinese will re-enter on those projects once the heat is off but the West won’t be too quick and it will hasten the need to remove dependency upon Russian gas.
The other irony is that the actor come president had an approval rating in the low 20s before this but now enjoys somewhere in the 80s and will be seen as the hero of the Ukrainian people and nation. They are emboldened now which makes them even more dangerous and capable.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Sumy is fortified, Ukie forces are much more concentrated around there, well Mari was very well fortified it wasn't has defended.

Sumy will be harder than Mari because the Ukies cannot afford to let it fall, they could afford to let Mari fall and it was better to. Sure Sumy is a bit smaller but its not a massive difference,

The population isn't really a factor here, all that matters is how many enemy forces are in the area and how hard they will fight to hold it. Given Sumy's size, tactical important to their defense strat, it will be much harder then Mari, they cannot allow Khakrov, Sumy nor Chen to fall.

My facts are not wrong.

TMA1 wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

LMFS wrote:
Fully agree, such artificial country is doomed like a house built over a tectonic fault, not to talk about it being an antirussian device from its inception. Western part (the real one, not the one created through indoctrination) can be a neutral, non ideological and demilitarized region loosely associated to the West, that is Galicia. The rest is Russian in the broad sense of the term since the times of the Rus and has no future as some tool of the West.

No it's a real thing. Ukrainians as a people have long existed, and the idea of a Ukrainian national state was around in the Russian Empire, encouraged after the Polish revolt in 1861 began and with Polish agitation about the re-establishment of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. It was more a fringe intellectual movement at the time, but Ukrainians, the Ukrainian language, etc.. were all real

The trouble really began in 1991. The Galicians, the far Western Ukrainians, assumed control over ideology and nation-building, and spread their vile anti-Russian identity to the rest of the country with school education, political technologies, etc.. but this stuff and associated nationalists were not in overall command until 2014, until then they were used more as a tool and looked upon as a bit funky by the rest of the Ukraine.

Here Russia is at fault too, for taking the Crimea and thereby presenting itself as a threat, but that was kind of unavoidable. The Maidan shitheads only cemented themselves and their presentation of reality from then on.

It is hard to say Russia is at fault for taking Crimea as it has vital army and especially navy presence protecting it's underbelly. Russia was already paying Ukraine for using the bases but with the western powers essentially taking control of Ukraine the russkies didn't have a lot of options. If say Cuba started talking about retaking Guantanamo bay I'd hope my country's leaders had the balls to push the Cubans back.

Hole wrote:Big difference here. Crimea was Russia for 200 years or so until some bald headed dumbass decided to give it to Kiev. Guantanamo bay is cuban soil. The regime in Washington made a deal with a dictator they installed and build a base there. Then the Cubans ended the contract but the regime in Washington declined to leave. The Cubans have every right to take Guantanamo back.

LMFS wrote:Shown in the Polish TV:



https://en.topwar.ru/193936-polskoe-televidenie-pokazalo-kartu-razdela-ukrainy.html

magnumcromagnon wrote:

kvs wrote:The Pentagon does not know where it's own ass is.   The claims about Russia running out of missiles prove this.

They went from saying Russia is unable to create, let alone mass produce PGM's and overly rely on dumb iron bombs, to Russia is over using PGM's and will run out soon.

They also went from saying China will invade Eastern Russia over the past 20 years, to saying China is propping up the Russian military. I guess China is the only country in the world capable of invading Siberia and propping up the Russian military all at the same time lmao!!!

TMA1 wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

LMFS wrote:
Fully agree, such artificial country is doomed like a house built over a tectonic fault, not to talk about it being an antirussian device from its inception. Western part (the real one, not the one created through indoctrination) can be a neutral, non ideological and demilitarized region loosely associated to the West, that is Galicia. The rest is Russian in the broad sense of the term since the times of the Rus and has no future as some tool of the West.

No it's a real thing. Ukrainians as a people have long existed, and the idea of a Ukrainian national state was around in the Russian Empire, encouraged after the Polish revolt in 1861 began and with Polish agitation about the re-establishment of the Polish-Lithuanian commonwealth. It was more a fringe intellectual movement at the time, but Ukrainians, the Ukrainian language, etc.. were all real

The trouble really began in 1991. The Galicians, the far Western Ukrainians, assumed control over ideology and nation-building, and spread their vile anti-Russian identity to the rest of the country with school education, political technologies, etc.. but this stuff and associated nationalists were not in overall command until 2014, until then they were used more as a tool and looked upon as a bit funky by the rest of the Ukraine.

Here Russia is at fault too, for taking the Crimea and thereby presenting itself as a threat, but that was kind of unavoidable. The Maidan shitheads only cemented themselves and their presentation of reality from then on.

It is hard to say Russia is at fault for taking Crimea as it has vital army and especially navy presence protecting it's underbelly. Russia was already paying Ukraine for using the bases but with the western powers essentially taking control of Ukraine the russkies didn't have a lot of options. If say Cuba started talking about retaking Guantanamo bay I'd hope my country's leaders had the balls to push the Cubans back.

TMA1 wrote:If say Cuba started talking about retaking Guantanamo bay I'd hope my country's leaders had the balls to push the Cubans back.

flamming_python wrote:The West will collapse, Russia will inherit a whole bunch of hostility and butthurt and probably lose Armenia and Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan, and China will become the new financial centre.