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    State Armaments Program 2011-2020

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    franco
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:43 pm

    Look at the 2018-2025 armament purchase program;

    MOSCOW, April 6 - RIA Novosti, Andrey Kots. In early July, the Russian Ministry of Defense will submit to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the public the final draft of the state arms program for 2018-2025 (GPV-2025). This document will determine the composition and volumes of new military equipment and technologies that will go into the troops in the next seven to eight years, and set the vector for the further development of our army, aviation and fleet in the 21st century. At the moment, the military is brought to mind the project and agree on the final details of a military-industrial complex (MIC) and the scientific community.
    Details of GPV-2025 are still kept secret. However, its general outlines in February, designated Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov. He said that the main task of the Russian defense industry - to bring to 2020 the level of equipment of the Armed Forces with modern equipment up to 70%. Traditionally, the priority will be given to nuclear deterrence forces and aerospace defense.

    Other directions will not be left aside. A source in the military department told RIA Novosti on March 10 that the GPO-2025 will include such significant weapons for our military-industrial complex as the S-500 air defense system, the fifth generation PAK FA fighter, combat machines on the Armata platform and others. However, many military experts note that, in the face of funding cuts, a number of ambitious projects can be postponed indefinitely or their implementation will be stretched over time.

    Recall, the new state program initially was to cover the period from 2016 to 2025, but it had to "move to the right." As explained in early February, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, the delay is due to the difficult economic situation in the country. At the current SPO 2011-2020 the state allocated 20 trillion rubles. Rogozin stressed that part of the unspent funds will be transferred to the next program. However, it can be judged only about the full amount of its financing.

    As Vedomosti newspaper reported in January referring to its own sources in the defense department, the first estimate for GPV-2025 was compiled in 2015. The military requested for the needs of rearmament first 55 trillion rubles, and later reduced the initial application to 30 trillion. The Ministry of Finance agreed to allocate for these needs no more than 12 trillion. The source of the publication believes that the final amount will be close to the figure of the Ministry of Finance. And this means that the military will have to adjust its initial plans.

    "I believe that the most affected by the reduction in funding will be the Navy," Andrei Frolov, editor-in-chief of the magazine Export of Arms, told RIA Novosti. "The reason is simple: in the current SPO, he received more funds for modernization than other types of Armed Forces. Undoubtedly, the pace of construction of the Borey nuclear submarine will continue - the strategic underwater missile fleet remains one of the main guarantors of our security: it is becoming increasingly difficult with surface ships. "It is obvious that the project of nuclear aircraft carriers will be postponed to a remote box "Storm". 2025 is unlikely to come into operation destroyers promising project "leader". "

    The expert stressed that, despite the reduced funding, the Russian defense industry is quite able to complete the prolonged repair of the Admiral Nakhimov heavy nuclear missile cruiser (TARKR) during this period, as well as modernize the Pyotr Veliky TARKR and the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser (TAKR) ) "Admiral Kuznetsov". In turn, the editor-in-chief of the magazine "Military-Industrial Courier" Viktor Nikolaev noted that the program of building ships for the Arctic is unlikely to be "curtailed".

    "This region is now of enormous geopolitical and economic value," Nikolayev emphasized, "The Ilya Muromets icebreaker should be commissioned in 2017 for the needs of the Navy." In addition, as early as 2016, the Ministry of Defense concluded with the Admiralty Shipyards "A contract for the construction of two universal patrol ships of the Arctic zone of Project 23550 until 2020. I think they will be completed within the framework of GPV-2025."

    According to the Aerospace Forces, experts believe that the cutback in funding will not hit hard. The emphasis will be placed on deliveries of Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-35 combat aircraft, Mi-8AMTSh, Mi-28N and Ka-52 helicopters, as well as S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, to the aircraft parts successfully tested by the Syrian war. But the debut of the promising S-500 may have to wait.The terms of the PAK DA project will shift due to the start of production of Tu-160M2
    "I believe that the samples of this system will appear more or less massively in the troops closer to the end of GPV-2025 or later," Andrei Frolov believes. "I would like to conclude first its development. I think that such rates for deliveries, as with S-400, For four or five regiments per year, we will not be able to reach this period within the specified period, I believe that within the framework of the GPV-2025 our military will refuse a number of promising but expensive projects, for example, from the PAK DA - a prospective long-range aviation complex. Now we are in full swing is developing a project of modernization The development of strategic missile carriers Tu-160 to the Tu-160M2 modification, they may go on to the series until 2025. But even the very rich countries can not afford two such projects simultaneously.And the first serial fighters PAK FA T-50 within the framework of the GPV -2025 should already be put into operation ".

    The leadership of the Ministry of Defense has repeatedly stated that in the coming years the troops will also receive new planes of military transport aviation. We are talking about light IL-112 (mass production start is planned for 2019) and medium Il-214 (the first flight is expected this year). In addition, the production of heavy IL-76 last modifications will continue.
    The pace of rearmament of the ground forces, experts believe, should remain at a fairly high level. The share of modern tanks, for example, for 2020, will be 70% in the troops. Mainly, due to the supply of modernized T-72B3 to the troops. However, on the approach and technology of a new generation.
    "With the promising T-14 tank based on the Armata platform, everything is going well," said Andrei Frolov, "Last year, the Defense Ministry concluded a contract for the supply of 100 cars, that is, we can already talk about mass production. And on this project, but there will be 20-30 new tanks a year, but in general I do not think that the Defense Ministry will completely abandon the projects ready or almost ready to go to the series.It can be pretty decent to save by simply cutting the purchased lots of equipment and Warlord zheny. This is true not only of the Land Forces, but also to the armed forces as a whole. But the samples will be tested in the army.
    The expert added that if the new tanks are already produced serially, then with the project of the prospective BMP "Kurganets-25" and the BTR "Boomerang" everything is not so good. Both cars had to refine according to the wishes of the military, and, according to Andrey Frolov, the troops they will go no earlier than 2019-2020 years.

    "Taking into account the current threats, I believe, in the framework of the GPV-2025, the air defense systems of the Ground Forces will significantly strengthen," military expert Viktor Murakhovsky said. "This applies primarily to the supply of Buk-M3, Tor-M2 air defense missile systems, , S-300 B. As for the ground component of our "nuclear triad", considerable efforts will be concentrated on the development of the Sarmat heavy rocket and the Barguzin combat railway complexes, as well as modernization of the systems already in service. "

    At the end of March, a source in the Military Industrial Commission told reporters that the emphasis in the new LG will be made, among other things, on "intelligent weapons systems" - communications, intelligence, control, electronic warfare, precision weapons and others. In such systems, all types and branches of the Armed Forces are needed.

    "The main emphasis should be made on the development of high-precision weapons," military expert and publicist Vladislav Shurygin told RIA Novosti. "Syrian experience has shown how effective it is." Secondly, we need to develop robotics-drone drones, ground complexes. Systems of control, communication and target designation, which allow you to tie all the weapons of destruction and reconnaissance on the battlefield into a single knot, and, finally, the fourth - in no case can you cut R & D financing (research and experiments but design works) Future development -. the future of the Armed Forces of Russia and pledge our continued status as one of the leading players in the global arms trade market. "
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  eehnie on Fri Apr 07, 2017 3:39 am

    About the previous article, I do not agree in some of the ideas explained.

    1.- First about the funding of the Plan. Really, it makes not sense to talk about the initial wishes of the Armed Forces. The realistic approach comes comparing the funding of the future plan with the funding of the current plan. It is necessary to take into account that the 2011-2020 plan was of 20 trillions for 10 years. It means 2 trillions per year in average. To keep the current rythm of spending the 2018-2025 plan should assure 16 trillions, of which 6 would be shared with the previous plan. The comment about 55 trillions does not justify the negative tone of the article. The amount of 55 trillions was more like wishful thinking.

    The article says that the finance minister is ready to give 12 trillions. If it is 12 trillions plus part of the funding of the current plan, it would mean to increase the rythm. If it includes all, it would not reach the 16 trillions that would allow to keep the rythm. I really do not expect a reduction of the 25% of the spending in relative terms.

    2.- The second point where I do not agree is in the comments about delays in some key projects underway. In overall terms today to complete the design and development of the key projects, until the production of at least the first unit, is more important for Russia than to force the rythm of procurement. The article said, citing Andrei Frolov, editor-in-chief of the magazine Export of Arms, somethings where I disagree, and even are wrong analysis in my opinion:

    "It is obvious that the project of nuclear aircraft carriers will be postponed to a remote box "Storm".

    This is full wrong. It breaks the recent Maritime Doctrine of the Russian federation, published in 2015, and this is something that a State Armament Program can not do, because it is a lower level document/plan. The State Armament Program is designed to assure between other things that the Maritime Doctrine of the Russian Federation is accomplished.

    Also to achieve in the shor/mid term the capabilities of building every type of ship in Russia, and this is only proved when the first unit of a project is commissioned, is a goal fairly more important for Russia than to have one or two ships more or less of some projects, and more if they are very low armed ships like those of the Project 23550 of patrol ship (if there is some cut, the Project 23550 is fairly one of the most likely candidates to be affected).

    Even this comment makes not sense from an economic point, because the project of Aircraft Carrier is expected to be exported. In fact when the Project 23000E was presented, it was presented the variant to export (E means variant to export), something habitual to keep some secrets of the variants for the Russian Armed Forces. No-one would cut a project that has a potential market outside.

    The terms of the PAK DA project will shift due to the start of production of Tu-160M2.
    ...
    I believe that within the framework of the GPV-2025 our military will refuse a number of promising but expensive projects, for example, from the PAK DA - a prospective long-range aviation complex.
    ...
    But even the very rich countries can not afford two such projects simultaneously.

    The return to production of the Tu-160 is perfectly compatible with the development of the Tu-PAK-DA, because in the first case, there is not a development of new technologies, there is only an update of the aircraft to the current technological level, and a rebuild of the capability of production of strategic bombers.

    in the case of the Tu-PAK-DA, the nature of the project finds new technologies. To cut this project, and the projects of the MiG-41/PAK-DP and Il-PAK-TA, that seem also affected by the comment of Frolov, means to cut totally the Russian investigation on modern aerial technologies, something that will not happen. It is fairly more likely the fall of the Il-112 project if there are some cuts, as explained here:

    http://www.russiadefence.net/t4312p75-russian-transport-aircraft-fleet-vta#189143
    http://www.russiadefence.net/t4312p75-russian-transport-aircraft-fleet-vta#189061

    With both projects, with the Tu-PAK-DA and the MiG 41-PAK-DP, Russia also finds, like for ships, the hability to build modern aircrafts of every type. And again to achieve this goal in the short/mid term, maybe before 2025, is fairly a more important goal than to have 10 aircrafts more or less of some types (MiG-35,...). It would be important for Russia to see the first unit of both finnished under the State Armament Program 2018-2025 and to reach the hability of building them completely.

    The Project of the Il-PAK-TA, finds to open a new way for air military transport. It is also important, and I expect to continue, but with a longer timeline.


    Last edited by eehnie on Fri Apr 07, 2017 6:54 am; edited 1 time in total
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    miketheterrible
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Apr 07, 2017 4:46 am

    franco wrote:Look at the 2018-2025 armament purchase program;

    MOSCOW, April 6 - RIA Novosti, Andrey Kots. In early July, the Russian Ministry of Defense will submit to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the public the final draft of the state arms program for 2018-2025 (GPV-2025). This document will determine the composition and volumes of new military equipment and technologies that will go into the troops in the next seven to eight years, and set the vector for the further development of our army, aviation and fleet in the 21st century. At the moment, the military is brought to mind the project and agree on the final details of a military-industrial complex (MIC) and the scientific community.
    Details of GPV-2025 are still kept secret. However, its general outlines in February, designated Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov. He said that the main task of the Russian defense industry - to bring to 2020 the level of equipment of the Armed Forces with modern equipment up to 70%. Traditionally, the priority will be given to nuclear deterrence forces and aerospace defense.

    Other directions will not be left aside. A source in the military department told RIA Novosti on March 10 that the GPO-2025 will include such significant weapons for our military-industrial complex as the S-500 air defense system, the fifth generation PAK FA fighter, combat machines on the Armata platform and others. However, many military experts note that, in the face of funding cuts, a number of ambitious projects can be postponed indefinitely or their implementation will be stretched over time.

    Recall, the new state program initially was to cover the period from 2016 to 2025, but it had to "move to the right." As explained in early February, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, the delay is due to the difficult economic situation in the country. At the current SPO 2011-2020 the state allocated 20 trillion rubles. Rogozin stressed that part of the unspent funds will be transferred to the next program. However, it can be judged only about the full amount of its financing.

    As Vedomosti newspaper reported in January referring to its own sources in the defense department, the first estimate for GPV-2025 was compiled in 2015. The military requested for the needs of rearmament first 55 trillion rubles, and later reduced the initial application to 30 trillion. The Ministry of Finance agreed to allocate for these needs no more than 12 trillion. The source of the publication believes that the final amount will be close to the figure of the Ministry of Finance. And this means that the military will have to adjust its initial plans.

    "I believe that the most affected by the reduction in funding will be the Navy," Andrei Frolov, editor-in-chief of the magazine Export of Arms, told RIA Novosti. "The reason is simple: in the current SPO, he received more funds for modernization than other types of Armed Forces. Undoubtedly, the pace of construction of the Borey nuclear submarine will continue - the strategic underwater missile fleet remains one of the main guarantors of our security: it is becoming increasingly difficult with surface ships. "It is obvious that the project of nuclear aircraft carriers will be postponed to a remote box "Storm". 2025 is unlikely to come into operation destroyers promising project "leader". "

    The expert stressed that, despite the reduced funding, the Russian defense industry is quite able to complete the prolonged repair of the Admiral Nakhimov heavy nuclear missile cruiser (TARKR) during this period, as well as modernize the Pyotr Veliky TARKR and the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser (TAKR) ) "Admiral Kuznetsov". In turn, the editor-in-chief of the magazine "Military-Industrial Courier" Viktor Nikolaev noted that the program of building ships for the Arctic is unlikely to be "curtailed".

    "This region is now of enormous geopolitical and economic value," Nikolayev emphasized, "The Ilya Muromets icebreaker should be commissioned in 2017 for the needs of the Navy." In addition, as early as 2016, the Ministry of Defense concluded with the Admiralty Shipyards "A contract for the construction of two universal patrol ships of the Arctic zone of Project 23550 until 2020. I think they will be completed within the framework of GPV-2025."

    According to the Aerospace Forces, experts believe that the cutback in funding will not hit hard. The emphasis will be placed on deliveries of Su-30SM, Su-34, Su-35 combat aircraft, Mi-8AMTSh, Mi-28N and Ka-52 helicopters, as well as S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, to the aircraft parts successfully tested by the Syrian war. But the debut of the promising S-500 may have to wait.The terms of the PAK DA project will shift due to the start of production of Tu-160M2
    "I believe that the samples of this system will appear more or less massively in the troops closer to the end of GPV-2025 or later," Andrei Frolov believes. "I would like to conclude first its development. I think that such rates for deliveries, as with S-400, For four or five regiments per year, we will not be able to reach this period within the specified period, I believe that within the framework of the GPV-2025 our military will refuse a number of promising but expensive projects, for example, from the PAK DA - a prospective long-range aviation complex. Now we are in full swing is developing a project of modernization The development of strategic missile carriers Tu-160 to the Tu-160M2 modification, they may go on to the series until 2025. But even the very rich countries can not afford two such projects simultaneously.And the first serial fighters PAK FA T-50 within the framework of the GPV -2025 should already be put into operation ".

    The leadership of the Ministry of Defense has repeatedly stated that in the coming years the troops will also receive new planes of military transport aviation. We are talking about light IL-112 (mass production start is planned for 2019) and medium Il-214 (the first flight is expected this year). In addition, the production of heavy IL-76 last modifications will continue.
    The pace of rearmament of the ground forces, experts believe, should remain at a fairly high level. The share of modern tanks, for example, for 2020, will be 70% in the troops. Mainly, due to the supply of modernized T-72B3 to the troops. However, on the approach and technology of a new generation.
    "With the promising T-14 tank based on the Armata platform, everything is going well," said Andrei Frolov, "Last year, the Defense Ministry concluded a contract for the supply of 100 cars, that is, we can already talk about mass production. And on this project, but there will be 20-30 new tanks a year, but in general I do not think that the Defense Ministry will completely abandon the projects ready or almost ready to go to the series.It can be pretty decent to save by simply cutting the purchased lots of equipment and Warlord zheny. This is true not only of the Land Forces, but also to the armed forces as a whole. But the samples will be tested in the army.
    The expert added that if the new tanks are already produced serially, then with the project of the prospective BMP "Kurganets-25" and the BTR "Boomerang" everything is not so good. Both cars had to refine according to the wishes of the military, and, according to Andrey Frolov, the troops they will go no earlier than 2019-2020 years.

    "Taking into account the current threats, I believe, in the framework of the GPV-2025, the air defense systems of the Ground Forces will significantly strengthen," military expert Viktor Murakhovsky said. "This applies primarily to the supply of Buk-M3, Tor-M2 air defense missile systems, , S-300 B. As for the ground component of our "nuclear triad", considerable efforts will be concentrated on the development of the Sarmat heavy rocket and the Barguzin combat railway complexes, as well as modernization of the systems already in service. "

    At the end of March, a source in the Military Industrial Commission told reporters that the emphasis in the new LG will be made, among other things, on "intelligent weapons systems" - communications, intelligence, control, electronic warfare, precision weapons and others. In such systems, all types and branches of the Armed Forces are needed.

    "The main emphasis should be made on the development of high-precision weapons," military expert and publicist Vladislav Shurygin told RIA Novosti. "Syrian experience has shown how effective it is." Secondly, we need to develop robotics-drone drones, ground complexes. Systems of control, communication and target designation, which allow you to tie all the weapons of destruction and reconnaissance on the battlefield into a single knot, and, finally, the fourth - in no case can you cut R & D financing (research and experiments but design works) Future development -. the future of the Armed Forces of Russia and pledge our continued status as one of the leading players in the global arms trade market. "

    already spotted BS. There is already training facilities for S-500 so it won't be delayed. As well, if it is 12T rubles, that is still quite a bit for rearming. But I doubt it will be there. Possibly around 19T or 17T after what's going on with US, doubt Russia is going to sit idle.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:15 am

    "Last year, the Defense Ministry concluded a contract for the supply of 100 cars, that is, we can already talk about mass production. And on this project, but there will be 20-30 new tanks a year..."

    20-30 a year!? Is he talking about long-term production or just about the initial order of 100?
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:09 am

    Kimppis wrote:
    "Last year, the Defense Ministry concluded a contract for the supply of 100 cars, that is, we can already talk about mass production. And on this project, but there will be 20-30 new tanks a year..."

    20-30 a year!? Is he talking about long-term production or just about the initial order of 100?

    its nothing short than hot air for airtime or a publication that has their names on it. In other words, gossip and made up rumors.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  eehnie on Fri Apr 07, 2017 9:27 pm

    I assume that when the article is talking about trillions means 1012 and not 1018 like should be. But well, note that:

    20 Trillions of Rubles are = 349.389.590.181,73 USD
    12 Trillions of Rubles are = 209.633.754.109,04 USD

    The estimation of the cost per unit of the Project 23000 is between 1.800.000.000,00 USD and 5.630.000.000,00 USD at the currency rate of the time (May 31, 2015: 1 USD = 52,3120 RUB).

    http://tass.com/russia/797980
    http://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-RUB-exchange-rate-history-full.html

    Returning the data to Rubles to compare it with the total budget of the plan, the cost per unit of the Project 23000 aircraft carrier would be between 94.161.600.000,00 RUB and 294.516.560.000,00 RUB.

    This would be between a 0,78% and a 2,45% of the 12 Trillions of Rubles. Plus the costs of development of the project (far lower), and the costs of adapting the shipyard.

    It is affordable for Russia by 2025, even in a situation of minimum funding for the State Armament Plan 2018-2025.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Fri Apr 07, 2017 10:57 pm

    The article is written by a reporter based on interviews with various military and MIC people plus some other comments already made publicly. Certainly not written in stone, their personal view point and open to interruption.

    On one side Putin is very clear that he will not bankrupt the economy to arm the military. It will be balanced out but rearming will continue.

    We are already seeing that new equipment development and production has slowed down. Again a balance will be maintained and the positive is hopefully a better product with a longer development period.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:34 pm

    franco wrote:The article is written by a reporter based on interviews with various military and MIC people plus some other comments already made publicly. Certainly not written in stone, their personal view point and open to interruption.

    On one side Putin is very clear that he will not bankrupt the economy to arm the military. It will be balanced out but rearming will continue.

    We are already seeing that new equipment development and production has slowed down. Again a balance will be maintained and the positive is hopefully a better product with a longer development period.

    we have? Such as....?
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Fri Apr 07, 2017 11:50 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    franco wrote:The article is written by a reporter based on interviews with various military and MIC people plus some other comments already made publicly. Certainly not written in stone, their personal view point and open to interruption.

    On one side Putin is very clear that he will not bankrupt the economy to arm the military. It will be balanced out but rearming will continue.

    We are already seeing that new equipment development and production has slowed down. Again a balance will be maintained and the positive is hopefully a better product with a longer development period.

    we have? Such as....?

    T-50, Armata, Kurganets, Boomerang, SA-350, SA-500, etc. etc.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Apr 08, 2017 8:28 am

    franco wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    franco wrote:The article is written by a reporter based on interviews with various military and MIC people plus some other comments already made publicly. Certainly not written in stone, their personal view point and open to interruption.

    On one side Putin is very clear that he will not bankrupt the economy to arm the military. It will be balanced out but rearming will continue.

    We are already seeing that new equipment development and production has slowed down. Again a balance will be maintained and the positive is hopefully a better product with a longer development period.

    we have? Such as....?

    T-50, Armata, Kurganets, Boomerang, SA-350, SA-500, etc. etc.

    What?
     Armata has been ordered and after first batches arrive, you know just as well as I do that it will be ordered more.  S-500 is presume you mean, is already slated and as I said, there is already a training center with the first crew being set up for training on new system.  T-50? Agreement for 12 of them by 2020 was slated for various reason - engines not ready is pretty much dead giveaway.

    You should know since you yourself mentioned it.  Russia orders aircrafts in 12's.  S-500 has been delayed more than once in the last 5 years (before economic restrictions).  But it is a priority for obvious reasons.  Maybe more so than PAK FA.

    And anyway, what you stated makes little sense because everything as of now form start of SAP2020 till 2020 has been approved.  As mentioned earlier, the 20T will end up being met by 2019 and that was approved by everyone even economic ministry.  So money being spent now for programs to be finished and purchased (S-500, Armata) are not affected by SAP2025 because it hasn't even started yet.  You may have forgotten, but it is only 2017.

    Putin even stated priorities for SAP2025 as S-500, Armata and PAK FA.  Or it was the ministry of defense.  Either way, these will end up with priority.  If any major cutbacks happen, it will be on large surface ships.  Which is understandable. But it was hinted before that PAK FA introduction is going to be spanned out longer.  MoD is expecting to purchase more Su-35's and Su-30's.  Probably because their cheap (last purchase for Su-35 came out to roughly $27M per aircraft, which is cheap).

    After recent events, they may keep it high, something like 3% of GDP per year, in order to prepare themselves for potential war.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:33 pm

    I'm not sure what we are arguing about dunno so won't Wink
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Benya on Mon May 15, 2017 6:43 pm

    RUSSIA’S STATE ARMAMENTS PROGRAMFOR 2018-2025

    Written by J.Hawk exclusively for SouthFront

    While Russia’s next State Armaments Program (GPV) will be officially revealed only in early July, its general outline is already known thanks to a number of official and unofficial announcements on the future direction of the Russian Armed Forces.  GPV’s priorities are a reflection of the perceived threat array facing the Russian Federation, and this GPV is clearly prioritizing the Ground Forces, which will sustain a rapid pace of modernization in spite of the recent economic crisis that has not yet been fully overcome. The political instability of the European Union, the rise of nationalists in Ukraine, the Baltics, and NATO’s overt hostility toward Russia, and the erratic foreign policy pursued by the Trump Administration compelled to take heed of the globalist faction of the US elite, all point to the need to bolster Russia’s ability to fight a large-scale land war in the foreseeable future. The other priority evident in the available information on the GPV is the desire to have “good enough” materiel in service now rather than “perfect” materiel later, as manifested by the deferred procurement of a number of systems currently under development.

    The Ground Forces will not only expand in size but will also continue to modernize and upgrade its equipment fleet. While by 2025 the most numerous main battle tank in regular service will be the T-72B3 or its upgraded version, Russian sources believe the T-14 MBT of the Armata family will be procured at the rate of 20-30 vehicles per year, with the initial order for 100 vehicles already in.

    The development of the Kurganets and Bumerang infantry fighting vehicles, on the other hand, has hit a few snags, so that they will not enter service before 2019 at the earliest. As a stop-gap measure, the Russian military will continue procuring Berezhok upgrade kits for the BMP-2 IFV, procure several hundred new BMP-3 IFVs, and overhaul the existing fleet. Land-based air and ballistic missile defense will also be a key priority, with the armed forces receiving Buk-M3, Tor-M2, and S-300V4 and S-400 missile systems. The prospective S-500, still in the development phase, will likely not be procured during the next GPV term.

    The biggest predicted change in the new GPV concerning the Aerospace Forces will be the postponement of the PAK-DA strategic bomber program which is seen as redundant in the foreseeable future due to the ongoing efforts to resume the Tu-160 bomber production with the aim of procuring 50-60 of the bombers, and the modernization of the existing fleet to the Tu-160M2 standard. The PAK-FA development will continue as before, and the aircraft will enter series production in the upcoming years. However, most of the aircraft procured under the new GPV will be the already existing tried and true designs seen in the skies over Syria, namely Su-35, Su-34, and Su-30, as well as a number of MiG-35 “lightweight” fighters, and of course the Ka-52 and Mi-28N attack helicopters.

    What the GPV will not skimp on is munitions procurement, and the recent statements by senior officials predicting that Russian military’s stock of precision-guided munitions will double in the upcoming years is a reflection of yet another lesson learned in Syria.

    Naval Forces, by contrast, have a relatively modest role in the new GPV. Neither the Shtorm aircraft carrier nor the Lider nuclear-powered destroyer are likely to appear “in metal” within the next GPV term. Instead the existing ships, including the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier and the heavy missile cruisers, will undergo major refits to include the fitting of new missile systems, and the role of an oceanic escort will be provided by an enlarged variant of the Admiral Gorshkov-class frigate optimized to provide area air defense, a solution adopted by many European navies which found destroyers too expensive for their budgets. The construction of missile corvettes and light frigates, ships which more than proved their worth in the context of the Syria conflict, will continue unabated, as will the procurement of both conventional and nuclear submarines. There will be no change to Arctic-specific naval procurement.

    The new GPV, in addition to being a response to Western actions and a reflection of lessons from recent conflicts, is also a tacit confirmation of the sad fact that Russia is perceived as a worthy partner for negotiations in the West only because it is relatively immune to political and military pressure. As before, these weapons are intended to be used only as a last resort.

    Source: Arrow https://southfront.org/russias-state-armaments-program-for-2018-2025/


    20-30 Armatas per year? Shocked  affraid

    I thought that they will procure them in regiment/brigade sets, at least for the units of the 1st Guards Tank Army. For me everything is fine and nice except this.

    The BMP procurement is great, it looks like that a lot of BMP-2s – if not all of them – will be equipped with Berezhok combat modules, and BMP-3s (plus maybe its modern variants, the BMP-3M "Dragun" or the upgunned "Derivatsiya", or even the unmaned "Udar") will be produced in decent numbers.

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    Simple Explanation

    Post  calripson on Mon May 15, 2017 6:55 pm

    Simple explanation: no money. At least as long as the neoliberal monetarists are in charge of Russian economic policy and the sanction regime intelligently imposed by the west retards Russia's ability to access debt markets. Couple that with US fracking, LNG and alternative pipelines in to Europe, and the noose will conveniently tighten over time.
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    miketheterrible
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Mon May 15, 2017 7:09 pm

    calripson wrote:Simple explanation: no money. At least as long as the neoliberal monetarists are in charge of Russian economic policy and the sanction regime intelligently imposed by the west retards Russia's ability to access debt markets. Couple that with US fracking, LNG and alternative pipelines in to Europe, and the noose will conveniently tighten over time.

    most of what you said is debunked. Go to economic section of this forum for more details. Oil and gas accumulated is very small to overall Russian budget. And Russia's gas pipelines are already going fine (Nord stream 2, Power of Siberia and the Turk Stream). Russia is also poised to become the largest LNG producer as Yamal first stage will be operational this year, Shakalhin to be upgraded, and then eventually Baltic LNG.

    Outlook is looking good. All that is being said right now is pure speculation as the armament program won't be shown or even signed until July this year.

    Hell, Russia's GDP PPP is poised to increase 2% this year. So there is no economic mouse around Russia. Its like the so called noise around South Africa in 1976. Only it didn't do anything but bolster South Africa.

    But, if you guys thought they will produce hundreds of tanks a year of Armata, think again. It is a huge system with potentially a lot of flaws. There will be years of rigorous testing and then possibly fixing. Same was with Su-35.

    Biggest flaw of the article is about S-500. It was mentioned a while back that S-500 is priority for this sap program to 2025.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Benya on Mon May 15, 2017 7:51 pm

    calripson wrote:Simple explanation: no money. At least as long as the neoliberal monetarists are in charge of Russian economic policy and the sanction regime intelligently imposed by the west retards Russia's ability to access debt markets. Couple that with US fracking, LNG and alternative pipelines in to Europe, and the noose will conveniently tighten over time.

    Simple explanation huh?

    As Mike said, there is an appropriate thread to discuss this. BTW if only this thing was in your mind, please read the full report again

    miketheterrible wrote:But, if you guys thought they will produce hundreds of tanks a year of Armata, think again. It is a huge system with potentially a lot of flaws. There will be years of rigorous testing and then possibly fixing.

    Speaking personally, I never thought that for a single moment.

    Of course, transferring the whole Russian tank force to the Armata platform (or even only a single part of it) will be a lenghty process. I was only thinking about the LRIP of the system. What I think that would be the most logical schedule for this is at first an Armata battalion or regiment in an armored brigade/division for field testing/evaluations, then a whole brigade and then a division, and if the results of these tests are good, the MoD can give the green light to full-scale production. This whole process from right now would take not really more than 6-8 years, which is good IMO (we are talking about a brand new, and very unique combat system BTW.)

    miketheterrible wrote:Biggest flaw of the article is about S-500. It was mentioned a while back that S-500 is priority for this sap program to 2025.

    I have also heard some similar things about it, but better later than never. Wink

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  par far on Mon May 15, 2017 9:15 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    calripson wrote:Simple explanation: no money. At least as long as the neoliberal monetarists are in charge of Russian economic policy and the sanction regime intelligently imposed by the west retards Russia's ability to access debt markets. Couple that with US fracking, LNG and alternative pipelines in to Europe, and the noose will conveniently tighten over time.

    most of what you said is debunked. Go to economic section of this forum for more details. Oil and gas accumulated is very small to overall Russian budget. And Russia's gas pipelines are already going fine (Nord stream 2, Power of Siberia and the Turk Stream). Russia is also poised to become the largest LNG producer as Yamal first stage will be operational this year, Shakalhin to be upgraded, and then eventually Baltic LNG.

    Outlook is looking good. All that is being said right now is pure speculation as the armament program won't be shown or even signed until July this year.

    Hell, Russia's GDP PPP is poised to increase 2% this year. So there is no economic mouse around Russia. Its like the so called noise around South Africa in 1976. Only it didn't do anything but bolster South Africa.

    But, if you guys thought they will produce hundreds of tanks a year of Armata, think again. It is a huge system with potentially a lot of flaws. There will be years of rigorous testing and then possibly fixing. Same was with Su-35.

    Biggest flaw of the article is about S-500. It was mentioned a while back that S-500 is priority for this sap program to 2025.


    Very well said, there are a lot of trolls on here. Another point is that it takes time to modernize a army(especially the size of Russia.)
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  eehnie on Tue May 16, 2017 1:12 pm

    About the newest weapons, it is logical to expect low activity of procurement in the 2018-2025 State Armament Program. But this is not a trouble, a rejection or a delay, this is only consequence of the development process of new weapons. It is easy to say and to explain. Some of the newest weapons will not be ready for mass production by 2025. Only that.

    What I expect of the 2018-2025 State Armament Program, was explained with decent detail, in the previous page of this topic (I improved some details with updates):

    http://www.russiadefence.net/t2358p325-state-armaments-program-2011-2020#190008

    In the refered to the procurement of new weapons, as said in the comment liked, it is likely more intense procurement of:

    1.- Self Propelled Air Defense systems. The main reason is the lack of saturation of the reserves. This type of weapons is of recent development, and has been in expansion in the Russian Armed Forces. Now seems to be reaching stable numbers in the active service, but the reserves today are very small, unlike for other types of weapons with longer history.

    2.- Infantry: With the recent process of rising in the standards for these weapons, speacially in the refered to the safety of the military personnel, this is the type of weapons where the new weapons developed have bigger difference in military terms with the current arsenals of weapons for the role. It is necessary intense procurement, to adapt the arsenals to the new standards on protection of the crew.

    Both cases are of land warfare. It makes likely then, to see more intense procurement on land weapons than on sea and air weapons. It is a need, not other thing, and it is a need in this two types of weapons, not in others.

    For the rest of types of land, air and sea armament, while there are some differences, the situation is stronger, and as consequence the procurement will be less intense than for Air Defense and Infantry, but also in agreement with the situation of every type of armament.

    Unlike in the case of the Air Defense, in the case of the Infantry vehicles for combat roles, there is previous warfare (BTR-60, BMD-1, BTR-70, BMP-1, BRDM-2) that can become a surplus. This is not a problem because the oldest vehicles can be used as help to allies that need them, or as vehicles for the Russian security forces (making less likely the purchase of other semiarmoured vehicles for them). Surely Russia will be focused in the procurement of powerful Infantry vehicles that meet the modern protection standards, based on Armata, Kurganets, Bumerang, BMD-4M and Typhoon 6x6 platforms. The Bulat 6x6 and the BMP-3 can remain also in production. The production of MT-LB and BTR-80(/82) can be ruled out.

    PS: Smaller projects of semiarmoured or unarmoured vehicles can have a chance to export or as land auxiliary vehicles for roles out of contested areas (land transport, light utility, engineering roles out of contested areas,...), if they prove to be better than the GAZ Tigr and the UAZ Patriot.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Wed May 17, 2017 6:30 pm

    That 20-30 Armatas per year figure is based one what? I would actually be quite happy with 50. Considering that Western European powers like France, the UK and Germany only have 200-300 each, not to mention that Armata is going to stay top of the line for decades to come.

    Most people don't even realize that Russia doesn't have 15,000 or 20,000 MBTs in actual active service (it's roughly 2500), the US with 6000 is equally BS. As an example, when is the successor of Abrams going to be revealed? 2030 at the earliest? That is what, a lifespan of more than 50 years? MBT generations are certainly not going to get any shorter (with upgrades, obviously).

    But 20-30? That is like 300 by 2030...

    Also, isn't S-500 "almost" ready? And indeed it has to be a priority.

    It's quite of an exaggeration to say that oil & gas are a very small part of the federal budget. And in that case I think the federal budget (in other words, the one that is 40% of oil & gas) is the most important indicator when it comes to military spending. That said, I do agree with the main point. Contrary to the western propaganda, it's clear that the Russian budget or military modernization have not been massively affected, largely because of the devaluation of the ruble.

    How exactly is that going to get worse in the future? Russian economy is growing already and IMO, oil prices are going to be quite a bit higher in the early 2020s than they are now. I'm not an expert, but global oil consumption will continue to grow, it's really that simple.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  George1 on Thu May 18, 2017 10:29 am

    A quarter of the funds of the new state armament program will be allocated to the army and airborne troops

    As Ivan Safronov and Alexandra Djordjevic write in the article "Landing troops and infantry will make financially sustainable," published in the newspaper Kommersant, on May 17, President Vladimir Putin discussed with the leadership of the Defense Ministry and directors of defense enterprises the development prospects for land and airborne forces in the formation of the state program Arms (GVP) for the years 2018-2025. According to "Kommersant", general attention will be paid to it in the field of general attention: up to a quarter of all funds pledged in the GPV can be used for rearmament. In the current program, the purchase of weapons for the Army and Airborne Forces was not a priority.

    The key issues of yesterday's meeting at the presidential residence Bocharov Ruchey were the state and prospects for the rearmament of the ground forces and airborne troops. Vladimir Putin said that by the end of 2017 the share of modern weapons in the ground forces should be 42%, and in the Airborne Forces - 58%. "It is important not only to continue to increase this indicator, but also to give the general-purpose weapons system a new quality," the president said. According to him, when implementing the planned plans, a scientific and technical reserve will be formed for the development of fundamentally new types of weapons. The main speakers were General Andrey Serdyukov, commander of the airborne forces, and General Oleg Salyukov, commander-in-chief of the ground forces, then representatives of industry expressed their comments in a closed mode for the press.

    The current SΑP 2011-2020, the volume of which by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation exceeded the record 19 trillion rubles, was adopted in December 2010. The largest expenditures were related to the acquisition of aviation equipment (about 4.5 trillion rubles), the rearmament of the fleet (4.7 trillion rubles), and the purchase of aerospace defense (3.4 trillion rubles). The remaining funds were to be spent on the modernization of strategic (About 2 trillion rubles) and carrying out research and development work. In this configuration, only 2.6 trillion rubles were left to equip the ground forces and airborne troops with new weapons. It was believed that this would be enough for the purchase of BTR-82A armored personnel carriers, BMP-3 infantry armored vehicles and BMD-4M armored vehicles, Iskander tactical missile systems, T-90S tanks (and modernization of T-72 tanks), Iveco LMV armored vehicles, "Tiger" and "Wolf", as well as small arms and communications.

    According to "Kommersant", in 2015 there was an adjustment: some funds were redistributed in favor of general-purpose forces. This was due to the situation in the southeast of Ukraine and the battles between the formations of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics with the Ukrainian military. To strengthen the border of the RF Ministry of Defense, it was necessary to shift the connections of constant readiness, which required serious investments. Then it became clear that the role in military conflicts assigned to the ground forces and airborne forces does not fully correspond to the means laid for their rearmament. The head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, Ruslan Pukhov, believes that the existing LG was initially heavily skewed towards the fleet and the nuclear deterrence forces: "The impression was that the ground forces and the Airborne Forces were a" Cinderella "who simply did not have the means to re-equip."

    According to a senior Kommersant source in the military department, a total of one quarter of all funds will be allocated to the general-purpose forces in 2018-2025, which will correct the bias of its predecessor (according to the Vedomosti newspaper, the total volume of the new SAP will be approved at 17 Trillion rubles). This money will go primarily to the purchase of military air defense systems (including within the framework of the ROC "Standard"), T-90 and T-14 "Armata" tanks (the first batch of 32 cars is now undergoing state testing), the armored vehicles of the infantry "Kurganets-25 "and armored personnel carriers" Boomerang ". Emphasis will also be placed on adaptation of armaments to the Arctic territories: in particular, it will deal with the S-300V4 anti-aircraft missile system and the Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile system. Colonel Viktor Murahovsky of the reserve is confident that in the new SAP 2018-2025 will also be purchased already in service with weapons such as BMD-4M armored vehicles, BTR-MDM armored personnel carriers and self-propelled anti-tank cannon "Sprut-SD". He also believes that the military will continue to improve the tactical management of the troops, and also take the sets of military equipment "Ratnik" in a configuration optimized for the airborne troops.

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2615909.html


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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Fri May 19, 2017 11:02 am

    20 trillion rearmament budget for 2011-2020 and 17 trillion rearmament budget for 2018-2025 sounds like the rearmament budget will remain around 2 trillion a year. So no let up in rearming just changes to distribution as is correct. Aerospace defense and strategic rocket forces have been the priority and are showing over 60% modernization by the end of 2016. Goal of 70% modernized equipment by end of 2020 remains with it sitting at 58.3% at the end of 2016. Another 4% growth is expected this year which if maintained could have the Armed Forces having 75% modern equipment by the end of 2020.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Fri May 19, 2017 6:19 pm

    Yeah, isn't that actually slightly more per year? Because originally that 19 trillion was supposed to last until the end of 2020? Also, I think they might even increase the spending by the mid-2020s, as long as the economy develops well. Let's say that it will grow by 3.5% per year on average. In that scenario 2 trillion roubles could actually be quite low (as % of GDP)... by the end of the program. How large is the Russian economy in roubles atm?

    One thing I also realized is that the program for 2018-2025 is very much the continuation of the current one. The main priority - as it should be - is to simply increase the share of modern equipment (as it's currently defined) from 2020's 70-80% to 100%, so that after 2025 they can fully focus on totally new generation equipment, like PAK-FA, MiG-41, Mikoyan LMFS (?), PAK DA, Lider, S-500 and Armata.

    So by 2025 they will have everything upgraded, and that stuff will last atleast until 2040s, or even longer... Of course it depends on the system, MiG-31s, Su-25s, the older SSNs and other ships like Slavas and Sovs must be replaced by the mid-2030s or earlier, while the new Su-30s are probably going to last until 2040s, and so on.

    That will give them another 2 decades (roughly 2025-2045) to equip... let's say 60-80% of the armed forces with next-generation equipment (on hand hand some of that will already be in service by 2025, while on the other some older equipment might last even until the 2050s).
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Fri May 19, 2017 7:17 pm

    1. GDP for 2016 was 84.12 trillion roubles
    2. Remember military budgets are for 10 years but are redone every 5 years. They are 2 years late due to the economic crisis so this one is for 8 years but will most likely be redone in 2020.
    3. Funds quoted in the 2011-2020 budget are obviously also partly in the 2018-2025 budget (2018-2020). Also there would be yearly variances re available funds and new equipment being able to be manufactured.
    4. What this 17 trillion figure shows me is that military spending will remain at it's present rate factoring in inflation through 2025.
    5. Goal is to get the modern equipment technology above 80-85% and maintain that going forward. Other goals are a military force of ~1,000,000 and equipment serviceability above 90-95%.
    6. The 17 trillion figure is still unofficial so still waiting to see for sure.
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Fri May 19, 2017 8:01 pm

    Correct. And yeah, I meant that those 19 trillion were supposed to last until the end of 2020, so when you calculate the average yearly spending, it's around 2 trillion, and that will remain the same going forward.

    And that 100% modern is indeed according to current standards... they will of course slightly change by 2025, but nothing dramatic. They'll will achieve 80% modernization, or close, by the end 2020, so they'll easily achieve "100%" by 2025, as they continue procuring 4++ generation aircraft, S-400s, corvettes, missile boats and submarines and so on...

    So I did a very simple calculation using my incredible math skills: Russian GDP could be around 115 trillion in 2025, which means that the military spending would be 1.7% of GDP!!! Okay, so that estimate is very rough, but yeah... Or let's be pessimistic and say that it will be 100 trillion roubles... even then that's only 2%! Even 4 trillion would only be around 3.5%, obviously.

    In a positive scenario, 2 trillion roubles would go below 2% by around 2022-23. So if nothing dramatic happens, the spending should and must increase above that 2 trillion by the mid-2020s.

    FAKE EDIT:

    Okay... I'm really confused here. I was just browsing through the military budget thread and noticed that the original projection for SAP-2020 was 23 trillion roubles... not 19 trillion, so around 19 trillion by 2018... not by 2020. Although that seems to include MICs modernization... So they don't have to do that anymore? That 2 trillion is the whole spending?

    In any case, that 2 trillion would indeed be very conservative as the economy grows... and very far from any kind of militarism (Western propaganda narrative). Far from 3% of GDP throughout the period on average, and actually could be even less than 2%... It just doesn't entirely add up.

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Fri May 19, 2017 11:08 pm

    1. There have been reductions in that due to the economy, replacement of foreign parts slowing production and new equipment being behind in mass production.
    2. Still missing data (final budget)
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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Fri May 19, 2017 11:58 pm

    Modernization rates envisioned by the end of 2017 (present budget):

    - Ground Forces 42%
    - Airborne Troops 58%
    - Aerospace Force 68%
    - Strategic Rocket Forces 72%
    - Naval Forces 55%


    - Overall 62.5%

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

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