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    State Armaments Program 2011-2020

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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:01 pm

    38 modernized T-72's? That's it? I imagine that cost peanuts but help, only 38?
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:30 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:38 modernized T-72's? That's it? I imagine that cost peanuts but help, only 38?

    Year is not done, one district out of 4 and focus seems to be on upgrading those T-80BVM's right now. Also some of those BVM's are replacing 72B3's that then replace the regular 72B's. All good in the march to have 2300 modern MBT's by end of 2020.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:44 pm

    franco wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:38 modernized T-72's? That's it? I imagine that cost peanuts but help, only 38?

    Year is not done, one district out of 4 and focus seems to be on upgrading those T-80BVM's right now. Also some of those BVM's are replacing 72B3's that then replace the regular 72B's. All good in the march to have 2300 modern MBT's by end of 2020.

    judging by recent comments about saving older equipment, and US growing presence out west, Russia will probably upgrading a hell of a lot more tanks than 2300, as that doesn't come close to what is needed. I forsee them coming up with an upgrade to T-72A's and upgraing maybe all T-80's or majority of them. Only makes sense.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:50 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    franco wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:38 modernized T-72's? That's it? I imagine that cost peanuts but help, only 38?

    Year is not done, one district out of 4 and focus seems to be on upgrading those T-80BVM's right now. Also some of those BVM's are replacing 72B3's that then replace the regular 72B's. All good in the march to have 2300 modern MBT's by end of 2020.

    judging by recent comments about saving older equipment, and US growing presence out west, Russia will probably upgrading a hell of a lot more tanks than 2300, as that doesn't come close to what is needed.  I forsee them coming up with an upgrade to T-72A's and upgraing maybe all T-80's or majority of them.  Only makes sense.

    Less then 3,000 are in active use, so with the T-14 coming (just like Christmas), don't see the need for too many more. If they field 350 T-90A's, 250 T-80U's and 300 T-80BVM's plus 1500 T-72B3's then they have over 70% modern plus the first 100 T-14's have already been ordered.


    Last edited by franco on Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:53 pm

    You seem to keep up to date. But as you may have noticed, nothing is in stone. If they agreed to not break apart all of their old systems, because they said due to the need of them and growing issues, then it leads me to believe they plan to end up fielding more. Even if they are not exactly in active use, having modernized tanks ready to fight in short notice is ideal.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:42 pm

    ^^^ Gospel

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    SeigSoloyvov

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:18 pm

    franco wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:
    franco wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:38 modernized T-72's? That's it? I imagine that cost peanuts but help, only 38?

    Year is not done, one district out of 4 and focus seems to be on upgrading those T-80BVM's right now. Also some of those BVM's are replacing 72B3's that then replace the regular 72B's. All good in the march to have 2300 modern MBT's by end of 2020.

    judging by recent comments about saving older equipment, and US growing presence out west, Russia will probably upgrading a hell of a lot more tanks than 2300, as that doesn't come close to what is needed.  I forsee them coming up with an upgrade to T-72A's and upgraing maybe all T-80's or majority of them.  Only makes sense.

    Less then 3,000 are in active use, so with the T-14 coming (just like Christmas), don't see the need for too many more. If they field 350 T-90A's, 250 T-80U's and 300 T-80BVM's plus 1500 T-72B3's then they have over 70% modern plus the first 100 T-14's have already been ordered.

    T-14 won't be around in sufficient numbers for years, T-72's will stay the main bulk of the Russian tank force for at least another 15 years. These are extremely expensive tank in the top 10.

    Russian budget is not also the biggest.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:06 am

    If one is stupid enough to compare it in USD, yes, its rather small all thanks to exchange rates.  But since Russia spends in Rubles, it has a rather high budget, especially in procurement.  But that is besides the point.  The point is, they have a large arsenal sitting away rotting and they are wanting to pinch every kopec that they can.  So if that is the case, then upgrade all the tanks.  All 5,000 of them to be ready for any conflict.  It will be a hell of a lot cheaper, especially spread out over a decade, than it is to build all brand new.

    You can still get life out of T-72A's and B's upgrading them to similar standard as T-90M. What they plan for T-80 is perfect. Once the Armata starts to come out in service, then it gives opportunity to start selling off the oldest of tanks modernized, to third parties whom would be interested in purchasing a rather modern but cheap tank for their armed forces. Helps reduce the overall costs in the long run. Rather than letting it sit there and rust away to nothing. What a waste of opportunities that it becomes a major question as to why retards like us on this forums knows this and they don't.
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    GarryB

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GarryB on Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:57 am

    The majority of tanks in Russia wont be Armata.

    They will have heavy tracked brigades and medium tracked brigades  and medium wheeled brigades.

    The medium tracked brigades and medium wheeled brigades will have Kurganets and Boomerang based tanks.

    And before you say they lack armour, they will have APS systems able to stop APFSDS rounds and also most HEAT types from 360 degrees so in many senses would be better protected than a current T-90 or Abrams tank.

    Tanks constitute only a small fraction of a brigade... most of the other vehicles are soft light variants of existing types like the BMP or BTR.

    A Kurganets division therefore with Kurganets based vehicles will have overall better armour than a current brigade for that reason.

    The lighter vehicles will be much easier and cheaper to produce...


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    eehnie

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  eehnie on Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:52 pm

    GarryB wrote:The medium tracked brigades and medium wheeled brigades will have Kurganets and Boomerang based tanks.

    More exactly, very likely they will have mobile antitank weapons of 125mm and 152mm.

    The key is in the balance between the units based on the different platforms. Russia will not lose strenght with the change, Russia will win strenght.
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    GarryB

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GarryB on Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:56 am

    The overall numbers of vehicles will decrease but the overhaul of units means there will be faster mobilisation and more men available if needed.

    The CFE agreement had something like 2,000 tanks in western european Russia with about 4,000 in storage.

    There were no limits for eastern Russia, but the changes would see more divisions available ready to be used faster, with much more modern and capable systems and equipment.


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    eehnie

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  eehnie on Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:00 am

    GarryB wrote:The overall numbers of vehicles will decrease but the overhaul of units means there will be faster mobilisation and more men available if needed.

    The CFE agreement had something like 2,000 tanks in western european Russia with about 4,000 in storage.

    There were no limits for eastern Russia, but the changes would see more divisions available ready to be used faster, with much more modern and capable systems and equipment.

    Not necessarily. I really do not expect a reduction. For it only is necessary a tie between procurement and exits.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Wed Nov 01, 2017 10:27 pm

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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:16 pm

    The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has received the first batch of armored bulldozers

    The engineering units of the Russian Army received the first batch of armored bulldozers designed and manufactured at the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant (ChTZ-URALTRAK LLC is a member of the Uralvagonzavod corporation). According to available information, personnel in the near future will begin its development.
    When creating this technique, the Syrian experience is fully taken into account. In the course of the military conflict in the Middle East, it became clear that in addition to engineering vehicles on expensive and heavy tank chassis, there is an urgent need to provide troops with simple and cheap bulldozers that have equipped armor to protect their personnel.
    In Syria, such machines are very often found, and on all sectors of the front of the fight against international terrorism.
    Considering the experience of military conflicts, the Russian defense industry also engaged in the creation of such equipment. Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant proposed a variant of the "armored" bulldozer B12. The car received an armored driver's seat capsule, a protected hood and a fuel tank.
    Thanks to these innovations, the caterpillar is not afraid of bullets and fragments. This will significantly reduce the losses of personnel and more effectively perform combat missions, reports RG-Sila.

    http://topwar.ru/


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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:00 pm

    https://twitter.com/Russian_Defence/status/930779434302476290

    Looks like our theories are correct. They will meet in middle. New agreement till 2025 is 19T
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:32 am

    miketheterrible wrote:https://twitter.com/Russian_Defence/status/930779434302476290

    Looks like our theories are correct. They will meet in middle. New agreement till 2025 is 19T

    till 20 if I read correctly Kommerasnt. This depends on if MoF and MoD agree on timeline of weapon shelters construction. ~$30 blns / yr is not that impressive. Apparently it is enough.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:19 am

    Actually, its 2018 to 2025 at 19T. Previous was 24T (4 - 5T in MiC rest in procurement) so that should give you an idea. This is around $80B a year if you use calculations based upon old currency exchange (when SAP 2020 started).

    Its actually a lot.
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    George1

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  George1 on Thu Nov 16, 2017 1:48 pm

    Putin to hold series of meetings next week with the Gov’t, MoD and MIC(VPK) representatives to discuss & agree on the new State Armaments Program(GPV) for 2018-27. Apparently ~19 trillion roubles ($320bn) have been allocated.

    https://bmpd.livejournal.com/2951071.html?utm_source=twsharing&utm_medium=social


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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:05 pm

    So it's actually until 2027, not -25? $32 billion per year? Bullshit. That is going to be what... less than 2% of GDP by the early 2020s? LMAO, not going to happen.

    As I've said earlier, that makes no mathematical, statistical sense. That sum would be unnecessarily low even with the current size of the economy. And obviously it will grow considerably by the mid-20s. So what the fuck... So they are going to spend less than 2 trillion roubles per year... It makes no sense. That's nothing.

    Now if the program is actually until 2025, then it makes a little more sense... But even then, only a little. That will still mean a unrealistically low % share of GDP by the second half of the "program". Can someone make some calculations? How many roubles is the Russian economy now? Let's say that the average growth will be a very conservative 2% per year until 2025 (it should actually be higher than that)... So what will be GDP share of military spending (around 2 trillion) by that time? Nothing, period. What the hell are they doing...
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:24 pm

    Kimppis wrote:So it's actually until 2027, not -25? $32 billion per year? Bullshit. That is going to be what... less than 2% of GDP by the early 2020s? LMAO, not going to happen.

    As I've said earlier, that makes no mathematical, statistical sense. That sum would be unnecessarily low even with the current size of the economy. And obviously it will grow considerably by the mid-20s. So what the fuck... So they are going to spend less than 2 trillion roubles per year... It makes no sense. That's nothing.

    Thats for rearmament program not Deference budget...



    Russia's defense spending approached $ 70 billion

    This is due to the ongoing rearmament program


    https://iz.ru/670905/alina-evstigneeva-aleksei-ramm/raskhody-rossii-na-oboronu-priblizilis-k-70-mlrd
    As explained to Izvestia by the scientific editor of the magazine Export of Armaments, Mikhail Barabanov, 2016 was not entirely indicative for Russia to judge the costs of defense.

    - Last years the annual defense spending did not exceed 2.9 trillion rubles. But last year the Ministry of Finance paid 800 billion rubles of state guarantees for loans to enterprises of the defense industry complex. Then the department paid an extra 200 billion rubles for these needs. It was this trillion rubles that led to an increase in spending on national defense in 2016 to 3.9 trillion rubles, "he explained.

    According to the expert, this year the expenses will return to the usual 2.9 trillion rubles and this amount will not change much in the next three years. According to the expert, because of Russia's growing geopolitical situation, it is necessary to increase defense spending - their reduction will lead to the disruption of the rearmament program.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:36 pm

    They are different? Shocked

    Anyway, I'll quote myself from May:

    So I did a very simple calculation using my incredible math skills: Russian GDP could be around 115 trillion in 2025, which means that the military spending would be 1.7% of GDP!!! Okay, so that estimate is very rough, but yeah... Or let's be pessimistic and say that it will be 100 trillion roubles... even then that's only 2%! Even 4 trillion would only be around 3.5%, obviously.

    In a positive scenario, 2 trillion roubles would go below 2% by around 2022-23. So if nothing dramatic happens, the spending should and must increase above that 2 trillion by the mid-2020s.

    So yeah, it doesn't add-up (if that's the actual military spending, that is). So the Russian economy will be over 100 trillion roubles in 2025, something like that... So indeed, 2 trillion roubles would be less than 2% of Russia's GDP. Absolutely BS all around.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:05 pm

    Procurement is different than overall budget. You can't mention in USD terms as its pointless but $35B a year in procurement is a lot.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:09 pm

    But $35 billion is only 2 trilion roubles, or actually even less, I think. Which going to be very little by the mid-2020s. The numbers just don't add up. My point basically is that by that time 2 trillion roubles will be way below 2.5-3% of GDP, in fact below 2%. For the whole period, for ten years, which is a very long time, the spending just can't be that low (2 trillion per year).

    Of course if that is only for procurement, then it's huge, but I don't think that is the case. During the current program atleast, that sum has been the whole spending, no? The official spending, that is.

    I don't know anymore...
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:21 pm

    Kimppis wrote:But $35 billion is only 2 trilion roubles, or actually even less, I think. Which going to be very little by the mid-2020s. The numbers just don't add up. My point basically is that by that time 2 trillion roubles will be way below 2.5-3% of GDP, in fact below 2%. For the whole period, for ten years, which is a very long time, the spending just can't be that low (2 trillion per year).

    Of course if that is only for procurement, then it's huge, but I don't think that is the case. During the current program atleast, that sum has been the whole spending, no? The official spending, that is.

    I don't know anymore...  


    You fixed yourself too much on supercomputers in Poland Razz Razz Razz Since you did not seem to read miketheterrible post I reiterate the same but with another wording :

    2 trillion rubles is for procurement plan (i.e. new equipment and R&D) and does not include money for paychecks, social sphere, renovating of tooling in factories or even preferential credits for MID or operations to my understanding ( like: War in Syria)
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:00 am

    That's why its called procurement plan. Lets not forget that Russian military spending itself is within 900B Rubles a year, while Rosvardi gets 1.2T

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