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    State Armaments Program 2011-2020

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    eehnie

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  eehnie on Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:07 am

    franco wrote:Going forward and the thought process;

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2369555.html

    The information of the article is understandable. Today the procurement is not the key part for Russia, it is more important to build some military capabilities related to the development of some armament that was not renoved since the last quarter of the previous century (more concretely since the time of the Soviet Union, and/or even then, was not done in Russia.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:35 am

    I read an article about how the next armament program will be much smaller - 12T rubles because that is what the liberals wanted as the Def Ministry wants 30T rubles.  I broke it down and at 12T rubles that is roughly $40B per year for armament which is still quite a bit compared to what I initially thought.  But of course, I imagine they will meet somewhere in the middle as the current armament program is 19.1T rubles and the remaining 3.9T rubles is for other stuff.  What was interesting though is that they mentioned that in 2017, they only expect to actually spend 40% of the current money allocated till 2020 (from 2011)

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2369555.html

    They said that they will concentrate on more purchases of current systems and the introduction of the newer stuff like T-50 and Armata will be slower and extended to later dates.

    This is of course not final and we will not know till the mid point of this year.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:44 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:I read an article about how the next armament program will be much smaller - 12T rubles because that is what the liberals wanted as the Def Ministry wants 30T rubles.  I broke it down and at 12T rubles that is roughly $40B per year for armament which is still quite a bit compared to what I initially thought.  But of course, I imagine they will meet somewhere in the middle as the current armament program is 19.1T rubles and the remaining 3.9T rubles is for other stuff.  What was interesting though is that they mentioned that in 2017, they only expect to actually spend 40% of the current money allocated till 2020 (from 2011)

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2369555.html

    They said that they will concentrate on more purchases of current systems and the introduction of the newer stuff like T-50 and Armata will be slower and extended to later dates.

    This is of course not final and we will not know till the mid point of this year.

    I was going to post on this... It's likely that the liberals also demanded a much smaller budget for the current program, right? So what's new? 12 trillion is not terrible, I guess, but it seems to be unnecessarily low. Russian economy is going to grow during that period, so by the early 2020s that would barely be 2% of the GDP, which is ridiculous. That would still be more than 2 trillion rubles per year (my math sucks)? (EDIT: Wait, no it wouldn't. 12 trillion in 8 years!? I didn't realize that is supposed to last all the way until 2025.) Indeed, there could easily be a compromise of around 20 trillion.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:11 pm

    Kimppis wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:I read an article about how the next armament program will be much smaller - 12T rubles because that is what the liberals wanted as the Def Ministry wants 30T rubles.  I broke it down and at 12T rubles that is roughly $40B per year for armament which is still quite a bit compared to what I initially thought.  But of course, I imagine they will meet somewhere in the middle as the current armament program is 19.1T rubles and the remaining 3.9T rubles is for other stuff.  What was interesting though is that they mentioned that in 2017, they only expect to actually spend 40% of the current money allocated till 2020 (from 2011)

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2369555.html

    They said that they will concentrate on more purchases of current systems and the introduction of the newer stuff like T-50 and Armata will be slower and extended to later dates.

    This is of course not final and we will not know till the mid point of this year.

    I was going to post on this... It's likely that the liberals also demanded a much smaller budget for the current program, right? So what's new? 12 trillion is not terrible, I guess, but it seems to be unnecessarily low. Russian economy is going to grow during that period, so by the early 2020s that would barely be 2% of the GDP, which is ridiculous. That would still be more than 2 trillion rubles per year (my math sucks)? (EDIT: Wait, no it wouldn't. 12 trillion in 8 years!? I didn't realize that is supposed to last all the way until 2025.) Indeed, there could easily be a compromise of around 20 trillion.

    My take is a little different;
    - the MoD have reduced their expectations to 30 trillion from 55 trillion but Finance wants it dropped to 12 trillion. It will be somewhere in between and Putin has already stated that it needs to be +3% of the GDP.
    - my read of the 40% is that of the budget allotted for new equipment 2011-2020, only just over 40% has been used heading into 2017.
    - and the priority has always been to have +70% of modern equipment by the end of 2020... it doesn't have to be brand new.
    - the military budget is always based on a soft 10-year plan with a more solid 5-year plan. This stage was actually put off by a year (2016) to see how the economy was going to develop.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:25 pm

    franco wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:I read an article about how the next armament program will be much smaller - 12T rubles because that is what the liberals wanted as the Def Ministry wants 30T rubles.  I broke it down and at 12T rubles that is roughly $40B per year for armament which is still quite a bit compared to what I initially thought.  But of course, I imagine they will meet somewhere in the middle as the current armament program is 19.1T rubles and the remaining 3.9T rubles is for other stuff.  What was interesting though is that they mentioned that in 2017, they only expect to actually spend 40% of the current money allocated till 2020 (from 2011)

    http://bmpd.livejournal.com/2369555.html

    They said that they will concentrate on more purchases of current systems and the introduction of the newer stuff like T-50 and Armata will be slower and extended to later dates.

    This is of course not final and we will not know till the mid point of this year.

    I was going to post on this... It's likely that the liberals also demanded a much smaller budget for the current program, right? So what's new? 12 trillion is not terrible, I guess, but it seems to be unnecessarily low. Russian economy is going to grow during that period, so by the early 2020s that would barely be 2% of the GDP, which is ridiculous. That would still be more than 2 trillion rubles per year (my math sucks)? (EDIT: Wait, no it wouldn't. 12 trillion in 8 years!? I didn't realize that is supposed to last all the way until 2025.) Indeed, there could easily be a compromise of around 20 trillion.

    My take is a little different;
    - the MoD have reduced their expectations to 30 trillion from 55 trillion but Finance wants it dropped to 12 trillion. It will be somewhere in between and Putin has already stated that it needs to be +3% of the GDP.
    - my read of the 40% is that of the budget allotted for new equipment 2011-2020, only just over 40% has been used heading into 2017.
    - and the priority has always been to have +70% of modern equipment by the end of 2020... it doesn't have to be brand new.
    - the military budget is always based on a soft 10-year plan with a more solid 5-year plan. This stage was actually put off by a year (2016) to see how the economy was going to develop.

    Has Putin said that it needs to be +3% past 2018-20? I hope that's the case. Or atleast like 2.5%. I'm obviously not saying that they need to spend more than they can afford or that they should be like the USSR, but they can afford that just fine, especially when the military (and military industry) is one the Russia's biggest strengths and it should be a priority.

    That's how I understood that 40% part too. (I read the article through Yandex translate.) It would make sense because the program is probably around 40-60% done atm.

    I guess having a lot of upgraded equipment was always going to be the plan and that's obviously fine. But I'd really like to see them purchase atleast around a squadron of PAK-FAs, like 2 squadrons of Su-35s and 150-250 T-14s every year after 2020.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:09 pm

    As for future purchases, they feel they need to purchase new around 100 aircraft plus 600 AFV per year. 600 AFV should get you enough to fit out;

    - brigade / regiment of Tanks with a battalion of T-15's in support
    - brigade / regiment of Kurganets with a battalion of T-14
    - brigade / regiment of Boomerangs with a battalion of T-14
    - brigade / regiment of BMD-4M's
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:23 pm

    100 aircraft? They need roughly 500 new aircraft.

    And even if procurement is $40B per year, that is far more than enough to purchase plenty of aircraft.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Sun Jan 15, 2017 11:28 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:100 aircraft? They need roughly 500 new aircraft.

    And even if procurement is $40B per year, that is far more than enough to purchase plenty of aircraft.

    I think he means per year. I think at this rate they're going to get around 500 new multirole aircraft by the end 2020 + hundreds of upgraded ones.

    To Franco: so that 100 includes helicopters? I thought that was supposed to be like 150 with helicopters? How many helicopters they even got last year? Because the overall attack helicopter numbers you posted are pretty impressive and I think the received around 50-60 new fighters last year. And that doesn't includes upgrades like MIG-31, right? Thanks.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:06 am

    Kimppis wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:100 aircraft? They need roughly 500 new aircraft.

    And even if procurement is $40B per year, that is far more than enough to purchase plenty of aircraft.

    I think he means per year. I think at this rate they're going to get around 500 new multirole aircraft by the end 2020 + hundreds of upgraded ones.

    To Franco: so that 100 includes helicopters? I thought that was supposed to be like 150 with helicopters? How many helicopters they even got last year? Because the overall attack helicopter numbers you posted are pretty impressive and I think the received around 50-60 new fighters last year. And that doesn't includes upgrades like MIG-31, right? Thanks.

    These are going forward figures to maintain a high standard of modern equipment, not present procurement plans.
    The figure includes helicopters and all other types of aircraft. Figure could be as high as 120 depending on types.
    Present plans are 600 new aircraft and 1000 plus new helicopters by end of 2020 (2011-2020)
    Yes, this would be new equipment not counting upgrades.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:51 am

    MOSCOW, February 24 - RIA Novosti. The share of modern tank in the Russian Ground Forces in 2020 will reach 70%, according to the Armed Forces Chief of Land Forces, Colonel-General Oleg Salyukov. Now the basis of military equipment combined arms formations and units make tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, said the commander in chief.

    "In the military units of permanent readiness of more than 50% of modern tanks T-72B3, T-80U and T-90A. Ongoing annual purchases of these machines, by fire damage and maneuverability, not inferior to the best foreign models in 2020 will provide a share of modern tanks to 70 % ", - the words Salyukova Department of information and mass communications of the Russian Defence Ministry.

    In the State Duma noted the outstripping the pace of rearmament of the Russian army
    Thus, in 2016 the military units of the Land Forces received more than 2 thousand basic modern weapons and military equipment, including combined-arms units - tanks T-72B3, infantry fighting vehicles BMP-3 and BTR-82A, he added .

    "Armed with the Ground Forces is BMP-3 and upgraded BMP-2 are underway to increase the volume of purchases of these machines, which already gives the results of 2020 the share of modern IFV will be 70%..", - Said the commander in chief.

    NOTE: Not exactly the envisioned result but the 70% is key IMO.

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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Sat Feb 25, 2017 10:40 am

    Why? I thought that was the plan from the beginning: upgraded equipment + some Armatas beginning from around 2018.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:14 pm

    Kimppis wrote:Why? I thought that was the plan from the beginning: upgraded equipment + some Armatas beginning from around 2018.


    A lot of people were expecting more brand new equipment, some people expected total new (of the 70%) but my read on it was 20-25% of the overall total. It now appears 10% will probably be all. On the positive side Putin has challenged them to make it closer to 80%.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Sat Feb 25, 2017 4:34 pm

    franco wrote:
    Kimppis wrote:Why? I thought that was the plan from the beginning: upgraded equipment + some Armatas beginning from around 2018.


    A lot of people were expecting more brand new equipment, some people expected total new (of the 70%) but my read on it was 20-25% of the overall total. It now appears 10% will probably be all. On the positive side Putin has challenged them to make it closer to 80%.

    True, but I don't think they were ever planning to have 70% brand new by the end of 2020. Totally unrealistic and unneccessary. It makes sense to spread the production over a longer period, so that it takes until the 2030s to replace everything. 80% is realistic, considering that that they are ahead of the plan in some ways atm.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Sun Feb 26, 2017 6:24 pm

    Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced to the lower house of parliament, on February 23 that Russia has tested a plethora of weapons in its fight against jihadist rebels in Syria.

    “We tested 162 types of contemporary and modernized weapons in Syria, which showed a high level of effectiveness,” Shoigu said.

    Only 10 weapons systems performed below expectations, he added, without specifying which weapons.
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    Isos

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Isos on Sun Feb 26, 2017 9:32 pm

    franco wrote:Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced to the lower house of parliament, on February 23 that Russia has tested a plethora of weapons in its fight against jihadist rebels in Syria.

    “We tested 162 types of contemporary and modernized weapons in Syria, which showed a high level of effectiveness,” Shoigu said.

    Only 10 weapons systems performed below expectations, he added, without specifying which weapons.

    Oniks is probably one of the 10. It was used against land target for the first time. On the other hand, they didn't talk about the Hermes results which is weird as they said that they send some of them on Kuz and it's their futur "top missile" which need some publicity before they offer it for export, we can assume the developement is not finished yet.
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    GarryB

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GarryB on Mon Feb 27, 2017 5:58 am

    Why would we assume Oniks was one of those that did not meet expectations?

    I would say the Su-25 and Su-35 got removed and upgraded, and the Kuznetsov also had some faults but there were 172 new and upgraded technologies tested of which 10 did not meet expectations and 162 that did what was expected... sounds damn good to me.

    When they list all the technology items they are talking about perhaps we can make some guesses, but just assumptions is not helpful here.


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    marcellogo

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  marcellogo on Mon Feb 27, 2017 9:59 pm

    GarryB wrote:Why would we assume Oniks was one of those that did not meet expectations?

    I would say the Su-25 and Su-35 got removed and upgraded, and the Kuznetsov also had some faults but there were 172 new and upgraded technologies tested of which 10 did not meet expectations and 162 that did what was expected... sounds damn good to me.

    When they list all the technology items they are talking about perhaps we can make some guesses, but just assumptions is not helpful here.

    Yes, that would means nothing, those ten could be some secondary things, total random ones or at the contrary the most important in the term of implementation of future russian military doctrine.
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    GarryB

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GarryB on Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:49 am

    I dare say the special forces on the ground likely tested the bulk of the new gear including probably three dozen odd new technologies in the version of Ratnik they used to detect targets for the air power that was used... not to mention new types of ammo for a range of new weapons likely tested too.

    I would guess at the very least they had trouble with batteries not performing to spec... you always get problems with new technology and batteries.

    The point is that this is a real test in a realistic environment so even the systems and equipment that didn't come up to spec will now be looked at and worked on to get it up to speed... this is a good thing.


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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Sat Mar 04, 2017 3:05 pm

    Some of those 160 weapons tested;

    http://valdaiclub.com/multimedia/infographics/testing-new-types-of-weapons-in-Syria/
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    George1

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  George1 on Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:04 pm

    Russia's Next Armament Program to Feature Armata Tanks, S-500 Missile Systems

    The Russia's state armaments program should include the production of iconic systems such as the S-500 surface-to-air missile system, the fifth-generation fighter aircraft Sukhoi PAK FA, the MiG-35 [fighter jet], the Armata platform and others, according to a Defense Ministry source.

    MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russia's 2018-2025 state arms procurement program includes supplying next-generation S-500 missile defense systems, Sukhoi PAK FA fifth-generation fighter aircraft and tanks based on the Armata Universal Combat Platform, a Defense Ministry source told Sputnik on Friday.

    "The state armaments program should include the production of iconic systems such as the S-500 surface-to-air missile system, the fifth-generation fighter aircraft Sukhoi PAK FA, the MiG-35 [fighter jet], the Armata platform and others," the source said.

    The 2018-2025 State Armaments Program, part of Russia's defense policy, is expected to be unveiled by mid-2017. The 10-year program should have been adopted in 2015, but this was delayed due to economic turbulence that hit the country the year before.

    The program is updated every five years. The current one runs until 2020 and was adopted in 2010. The program envisages massive military hardware upgrades, with the aim of 70-percent rearmament by 2020.

    https://sputniknews.com/military/201703101051439969-russia-defense-rearmament/


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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:27 pm

    franco wrote:Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, announced to the lower house of parliament, on February 23 that Russia has tested a plethora of weapons in its fight against jihadist rebels in Syria.

    “We tested 162 types of contemporary and modernized weapons in Syria, which showed a high level of effectiveness,” Shoigu said.

    Only 10 weapons systems performed below expectations, he added, without specifying which weapons.


    According to this article the Ka-52K was one of the 10;

    http://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/2017/march-2017-navy-naval-forces-defense-industry-technology-maritime-security-global-news/4985-russia-mod-problems-with-ka-52k-katran-naval-helicopter-following-mediterranean-trials.html
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    eehnie

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  eehnie on Sat Mar 18, 2017 4:29 pm

    Before the begin of the future State Armament Program 2018-2025, there are some questions that I would expect to be solved. First, the delivery of the first unit of the S-350, T-15 IFV, Mi-38, Ka-60/62 and Yak-152 seems assured this year (if has not been done at this point). Finally, the total decommission (including of the reserve) of the Il-14, An-8, Tu-124, Be-12 and AT-T, can be finnished before 2018.

    What I would expect of the State Armament Program 2018-2025:

    1.- To assure common standards in procurement and decommissions for land forces, common standards for sea forces, common standards for aerospace forces, common standards for land forces deployed by air and sea means, and common standards for military intelligence:

    Russian Army
    Russian Strategic Missile Troops
    Russian Military Police
    Russian Air Defence Troops
    Russian Coastal Troops

    Russian Aerospace Forces
    Russian Naval Aviation
    Russian Army Aviation

    Russian Navy

    Russian Airborne Troops
    Russian Naval Infantry
    Russian Navy Special Forces

    Main Intelligence Directorate

    2.- To exclude since the begin the procurement of the relatively weakest, less standard (including launched grenades) and less modern weapons (including the last variants) and auxiliary equipment in production:

    2A19/29 (M)T-12

    2A65 Msta-B

    GP-30

    SPG-9
    2B14 Podnos
    GM-93/94 (LPO-97)

    2S23
    SA-13
    MT-LB
    BTR-80

    3.- I would expect a militarization of some warfare that is now managed by non military security forces. It means the transference of low amounts of:

    Project 11351 (3 units from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
    Project 1265 (1 unit from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
    Project 1330 (5 units from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
    Project T-4 (3 units from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
    Project 1176 (2 units from R Coast Guard to R Navy)
    2S1 (12 units from Border Service of the FSB to R Army)

    4.- To finnish the process of replacement of foreign components, and a plan for the scrapping, sale or demilitarization of foreign material of the Russian Armed Forces. It would include foreign designs, but not Russian or Sovietic designs produced out of Russia.

    Dry cargo ships purchased for the operation in Syria

    Type Dora
    Type Dubna
    Project REF-675
    Project REF-100
    Project R-5757
    Project UK-3
    Project V92
    Project V820
    L-39
    L-410

    An-140
    Iveco LMV
    IC16M Project IC16MII
    An-148/158/178

    5.- Total retirement from active service of the last heavy towed weapons except the biggest Surface-Air (A-135) and Surface-Surface (SS-18 and SS-19) missiles. In the case of the (M)T-12 I expect a total decommission with a retirement also of the reserve:

    2A19/29 (M)T-12

    2B16 Nona-K
    2A36 Giatsint-B
    2A18 D-30
    2A65 Msta-B

    6.- Upgrade on self propelled Surface-Surface, Surface-Air and Artillery warfare, with the replacement of the tractor elements with unarmoured cabin by (more standardized) tractor elements with armoured cabin, according to the modern safety standards for the rest of the land warfare, and to make full mobile the SS-29 and SS-27. The retired unarmoured tractor elements can be used for military transport in non-contested areas:

    SS-29
    SS-27
    SS-25
    SS-26
    SS-21
    SS-1
    SS-C-7
    SS-C-6
    SS-C-5
    SS-C-1B
    BM-30
    BM-27

    SA-21
    SA-10/12/20/23
    SA-22
    SA-8

    A-222

    BM-21

    7.- Finalisation of the development of new weapons and non-combat equipment, and delivery of the first unit, to complete the new generation of equipment developed in the first quarter of the XXI century. Listed the key projects (except components, including ammunition) where the first unit is not in production in 2017. Bolded the projects where the timeline still assures not a first unit by 2025, and something elsethat I think would be interesting:

    New ammunition for the SA-4 tractors (I see not news despite a lack of projects for new surface-air systems/ammunition for the 15-50Km range, approximately the original range of the SA-4)
    New ammunition for the 125mm tanks of range over 17.5 Km to allow them to fight also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons of the adversary.
    New ammunition for the TOS-1 of range over 17.5 Km to allow them to fight also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons of the adversary.

    A-235
    SS-30/RS-28

    Project 23000E (multirole Aircraft Carrier)
    Project 23560 (multirole Cruiser/Destroyer)
    Project ????? Lavina or Project ????? Priboi (multirole Amphibious Ship)

    SA-??/S-500
    SA-??/Morphey
    SS-31/RS-26
    TOS BM2 with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. (Armata platform)
    SS-32/RS-27?
    2S?? 125mm Sprut SDM-1 with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons.(BMD-4M platform)
    2S?? 120mm Lotos (BMD-4M platform)
    2S?? 240mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. Successor of the 2S4. (Armata platform)
    2S?? 203mm for long range direct fire. Successor of the 2S7. (Armata platform)
    2S?? 203mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. New. (Armata platform)
    2S?? 152mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. New. (Armata platform)
    2S?? 152mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. Successor of the 2S34. (Kurganets platform)
    2S?? 152mm for agile direct fire, antitank role, with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. New.(Kurganets platform)
    2S?? 125mm for agile direct fire, antitank role, with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. Successor of the BMP-3 100mm. (Kurganets platform)
    2S?? 152mm that combines direct and indirect (mortar) fire. Successor of the 2S23. (Bumerang platform)
    2S?? 152mm for agile direct fire, antitank role, with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. New. (Bumerang platform)
    2S?? 125mm for agile direct fire, antitank role, with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. New. (Bumerang platform)
    T-14 152mm with some ammunition of range over 17.5 Km to be able to work also from outside of the range of man-portable weapons. (Armata platform)
    BMPT Terminator 3 with some weapon that allows to the project to work also outside of the range of the portable/man-portable weapons of the adversary. (Armata platform)
    T-15 APC (Armata platform)
    Kurganets-25 IFV (Kurganets platform)
    Kurganets-25 APC (Kurganets platform)
    Bumerang-25 IFV (Bumerang platform)
    Bumerang-25 APC (Bumerang platform)
    T-16 (Armata platform engineering vehicles)

    MiG-35
    Tu-PAK-DA
    MiG-41/PAK-DP

    Ka-92 or Mi-46 (in the An-24/26/30/32 size class with around 10 tons payload).
    Il-214 40 or Tu-330 (transport in the Tu-204/214 size class with around 40 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
    Ka-102 (in the An-72/74 size class with around 15 tons payload).
    Il-106/PTS 80 (transport in the An-22 size class with around 80 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
    Il-214 20 (transport in the An-10/12 size class with around 20 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
    PTS 160 (transport in the An-124 size class with around 160 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).
    Il-214 60 (transport in the Il-76/78 Be-A50 size class with around 60 tons payload, with the 3 sizes philosophy).

    Current key projects where a timeline longer than 2025 for the delivery of the first unit would not be a problem from a military point (bolded the most interesting and innovative projects for the next generation):

    Yak-135 as light supersonic trainer (plus FGA to export)
    Il-PAK-TA as supersonic transport
    Unmanned Long Range Shipborne Maritime Patrol VTOL aircraft/helicopter
    Unmanned Combat Helicopter compatible with all the branches of the Russian Armed Forces

    Frigate Ecojet (airliner in the Il-62 size class for double configuration: 1 mid passenger capacity + long range, 2 high passenger capacity + mid range).
    Comac C929 (airliner in the Il-86/80/96 size class for high passenger capacity + long range).
    MS-21/Yak-242 (airliner in the Tu-204/214 size class for mid passenger capacity + mid range).

    It is necessary to analyze if the rest of the manned projects of heavy equipment known publicly, not in production in 2017, maybe only distraction of efforts and funds.

    8.- Very intense procurement in relative terms on:

    Surface-Air systems (by lack os saturation of the reserve)

    Infantry Vehicles (to improve the fleet toward the modern standards)

    There is a potential decission to be made. It is about the adoption of standard calibers for launched grenades (30mm, 45mm and 73mm, the last likely to disappear in the future). For it the 40mm and 43mm grenades can be moved to the standard 45mm caliber. It would be an improvement in standardization and also in the power of the projectiles.

    In the following years, the total decommission (including of the reserve) of the relatively weakest, less standardized and/or less modern material, is likely to come (except in the case of the foreign material included in the point 4) by natural exhaustion after its use by the Russian armed forces, because of external demand or by transference to Russian non-military security forces in the case of the exceeding less modern infantry vehicles. With the likely apparition of Rocket Assisted Projectiles for 125mm (that should have longer range than the 120mm RAP) and longer range rockets of 220mm for the TOS-1, the (M)T-12 would be the alone remaining heavy equipment that must be always inside the range of portable/man-portable weapons of the adversary to do its work, and is likely to be used and totally disappear first.

    The updating of this message continues here:
    http://www.russiadefence.net/t2358p375-state-armaments-program-2011-2020#198050


    Last edited by eehnie on Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:15 am; edited 31 times in total
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    GarryB

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GarryB on Sun Mar 19, 2017 8:38 am

    I agree with most of what you are suggesting but we still disagree fundamentally on towed weapons.

    A towed weapon has features and capabilities no self propelled weapon of the same of better calibre.

    It is not like a new weapon is developed and starts in a towed version which is then replaces by a superior self propelled model after which all the towed models are replaced by self propelled models.

    In many situations a towed model is superior to any self propelled version.

    I do agree that the removal from service of obsolete calibres will make things much easier for the Russian military where all the different and very similar calibres just complicate logistics and potentially confuse matters.

    A good example is the 100mm calibre... there are smoothbore tank gun calibre rounds for the MT-12 anti tank gun, there are rounds for the rifled gun carried by the T-54 and T-55 tank, and there is the 100mm rifled gun for the stubby little medium velocity gun on the BMP-3... none of which are compatible with each other. In the similar performance range you have the 120mm rifled gun/mortar, you have the 122mm rifled artillery calibre, and you also have the 125mm smoothbore tank calibre.

    In my opinion getting rid of the MT-12 rifled 100mm calibre, the 122mm artillery calibre and the 100mm rifled tank gun and BMP gun removes 4 different rounds... they can all be replaced with a 120mm gun/mortar effectively enough where the anti armour performance of the MT-12 is replaced with guided missiles and the general HE power and range exceeds that of all the rounds listed to be replaced.

    That would leave the 120mm gun/mortar calibre, the 125mm calibre and the 152mm calibre for most front line units.

    Obviously new vehicles will add 57mm guns and 30mm cannon too.


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    eehnie

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  eehnie on Sun Mar 19, 2017 4:47 pm

    About reduction of calibers I do not expect explicit steps in the new Armament Program 2018-2025. There are some points where it is possible to advance in this timeline, like in the case of the (M)T-12 and its ammunition, but in overall terms I expect the decommissions coming from the exhausting of the use of the material. It would not be logical to destroy weapons in time of war.

    The situation is not bad in Russia, as explained here:

    http://www.russiadefence.net/t3465p150-ammo-calibres-for-russian-army-discussion#184106

    There are some redundancies but in overall terms Russia has a good, well distributed and stable basis of calibers, that is very difficult to move in the future (basically because the work finding new calibers would be redundant with the work done in the past). The current calibers are the survivors of a very long list of bids. There is not doubt that a few calibers of the listed in the link will disappear but the timeline for it is clear and is not short.

    In adition to the commented it is possible to work in the standardization inside some calibers, but again over the basis of the use of the oldest weapons.

    Leaving out the material that should be totally out of the Russian Armed Forces in the recent past and in the short term, likely by the begin of the Armament Program 2018-2025, that we can find in the following two comments:

    http://www.russiadefence.net/t1321p125-russian-arms-supplies-to-syria#186218

    The equipment most likely to be totally decommissioned (including of the reserve) by exhaustion after use, under the Armament Program 2018-2025, would be:

    (M)T-12

    Nona-K
    Giatsint-B
    D-30
    Msta-B

    SPG-9
    Podnos
    GM-93/94 (LPO-97)

    An-2

    BTR-60
    BMD-1
    Il-38

    PM-38

    Type Woljov auxiliary ship (like all of this group)
    Project 73 (433)
    Project 719
    Project 572 (modified to auxiliary ship)
    Project 437N
    Project 561
    Project 572
    Project 522
    Project 364
    Project 527
    Project 860
    Project 596P
    Project 577
    Project 733
    Project 1541 (1852)
    Type RBT (05T, 378)
    Project 870
    An-10/12
    Project 160
    Project 773 (modified to auxiliary ship)
    Project 861
    Project 737
    Project 871
    Project 1236
    Project 550
    An-22
    Project 1893
    Project 419
    Project 1549
    Project 852
    Mi-6/10
    Project 97
    Project 304

    T-80
    Project 641 conventional submarine (captured to Ukraine)
    Project 1134B cruiser ASW
    Project 61/01090 destroyer ASW
    Project 1204 missile boat
    Project 1332 minesweeper
    Project 1171 amphibious ship

    But nothing of this would mean the total retirement of some caliber. Even the 73mm caliber would remain still in the BMP-1, which is unlikely to be totally exhausted by 2025, because of the big reserves of this weapon. And more weakly still, the 82mm caliber would remain in some MT-LBs that can be retired or not.

    Note that despite the number of projects cited, there are few ships in the last group (that includes veteran combat equipment modern in concept). The total number of ships and submarines of these 6 projects would be 12.


    About the towed weapons, the alone key advantage that they provide is to allow a size that exceeds the possibilities of the mobile platforms, and it helps to take profit of the advantages of this very big size. This is the main reason of the existence of the A-135, SS-18 and SS-19, and why today there is a development of modern successors for these weapons, the A-235 and SS-30.

    The rest of the possible little advantages are not enough to continue with a military concept (heavy towed weapons) that is becoming out of time, in the scale where mobile platforms are possible. Russia is being clear about it. No new heavy towed projects emerge in the size where mobile platforms are possible, while the remaining weapons are becoming aged, and are being extensively used. And just this use is what make clear that Russia wants to exhaust them instead of keeping them stored long time. Russia thinks that the timeline for the use of the heavy towed weapons with equivalent self propelled weapons is shorter than the timeline for other types of weapons.

    The reason to include the remaining heavy towed weapons (except the biggest missiles) in the reserve is to allow its fast use without touch the active forces, that can continue doing its main mission.


    Last edited by eehnie on Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:50 am; edited 11 times in total
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:39 pm

    Some of the short falls for 2016. Total of 24 aircraft not modernized or repaired in time with Tupolev the biggest offender with 11. Also short 199 aerial munitions for the Air Force.

    http://in24.org/technology/26364

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

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