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    State Armaments Program 2011-2020

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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:03 am

    LOL.

    I know I was mostly repeating myself, but I'm really confused right now...

    So has the media been full of shit (as usual) all this time? So that "600 billion" (old exchange rate) was actually never the whole (well, most of the) budget? Then what was the real amount? How is the new armaments program any different?

    Also, the military wanted 55 trillion originally, or something like that. So are you people saying that 55 trillion, so over 5 trillion only for procurement was ever ever seriously considered by anyone!? Can Franco clear things up?

    But I'll repeat one last time that my main issue was not the current spending per se, a little over 2 trillion makes sense currently. Which is indeed something like $80 billion in 2013's exchange rate... so it's certainly the whole budget (just realized that). The issue was that it makes no sense in the long term, by the early 2020s, as the economy grows, not to mention inflation, etc.. Especially when it's seems to be slightly less than that (1.9 trillion per year, or so).

    24 trillion would've actually made much more sense, but that should've been the lowest realistic amount, and even then, only for the next 5 years (I mean 2.4t a year), not 10. Anything below that for the next 10 years is utter BS.

    I'll stop here for now, don't worry.  

    dunno dunno

    That's why its called procurement plan. Lets not forget that Russian military spending itself is within 900B Rubles a year, while Rosvardi gets 1.2T

    So 900B + the armaments program??
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:08 am

    Kimppis wrote:LOL.

    I know I was mostly repeating myself, but I'm really confused right now...

    So has the media been full of shit (as usual) all this time? So that "600 billion" (old exchange rate) was actually never the whole (well, most of the) budget? Then what was the real amount? How is the new armaments program any different?

    Also, the military wanted 55 trillion originally, or something like that. So are you people saying that 55 trillion, so over 5 trillion only for procurement was ever ever seriously considered by anyone!? Can Franco clear things up?

    But I'll repeat one last time that my main issue was not the current spending per se, a little over 2 trillion makes sense currently. Which is indeed something like $80 billion in 2013's exchange rate... so it's certainly the whole budget (just realized that). The issue was that it makes no sense in the long term, by the early 2020s, as the economy grows, not to mention inflation, etc.. Especially when it's seems to be slightly less than that (1.9 trillion per year, or so).

    24 trillion would've actually made much more sense, but that should've been the lowest realistic amount, and even then, only for the next 5 years (I mean 2.4t a year), not 10. Anything below that for the next 10 years is utter BS.

    I'll stop here for now, don't worry.  

    dunno dunno  

    Take this into perspective:

    http://www.russiadefence.net/t24p325-military-budget-of-the-russian-federation#205116

    Now it is starting to make a lot more sense.

    So they get about 1.8T - 2T rubles a year and the "Military" gets about 800B Rubles.  This pays for things like wages, training, housing, insurance or whatever, etc etc etc.  The procurement which is the larger part of paid for things like MiC retooling (4T out of the 24T Rubles), Rest for procuring of weapons, some new storage facilities, R&D, etc.  All broken down of course.  And their method of procurement has been rather very different than the west.  They will purchase for lets say, in 1 year, 50 Su-35's for 1 year for about $1.2B Dollars, another 48 of another kind, etc etc.  So in 1 year, they may spend about $10B on procurement, but that is stretched out till the orders are finished and then they go towards the next orders.

    Costs for sustaining the buildings, etc etc etc are all rather cheap in Russia.  It isn't like in the US were a toilet seat costs $800, or a hammer costs $400.  Thats why the smaller part of the budget that i was very curious about, is for everything else that isn't procurement or part of the SAP program.

    As for the 55T wanted or whatever, it was actually initially 30T rubles.  And no, no one actually ever took that seriously.  The government is split between the two sides - Finance and Defense.  And so the one side (defense) gives a very high amount in what they demand, and the Finance demands a low amount.  So that for the Defense ministry, the high amount that they claim (they cant go too overboard or people start questioning the MoD and they lose credibility), so that when negotiations happen, they still get a rather large amount that they need.  Everything else is already determined in prices for what the MoD needs to sustain what they already have, hence the 900B Rubles per year.  But the other set of money is really the "what can we get so that we can purchase".  Hence why they negotiate it.  They are not negotiating the 900B Rubles, they are negotiating the other set of money needed for procuring the weapons that they want.  Of course, they would want to build lots and lots of stuff that costs a lot, but they cant and wont.  Instead, they are going the route with "OK, we now get roughly about 1.5 - 1.8T Rubles a year in procurement funds.  What can we get with this amount? What is it that we are lacking? Where are the gaps that need to be filled? If we decide to go Route A - can we solve more issues going that route than Route B? Or is it better to leave some gaps open from Route A in order to be ahead with Route B?"  So on so forth.  Hence why they also mention what their intentions are: S-500, Strategic ICBM's like Rubez and the train ICBM system, SSBM's, Su-35's, 30's, MiG-35's, Su-57's etc.  So they know at this point - OK, this is what we are getting per year till x date.  Now we can determine with it, what we need.

    If you think this is convoluted as it is. Be prepared, its going to get even more convoluted in near future because (they extended it due to lack of funds) they are planning by then next year to early 2019 to militarize (in this case, add in to the military structure) the Rosgvardi (Russian National Guard). So in this case, some parts of the Russian National Guard will be a military force to be able to participate in wars either outside or inside the country. This also makes some sense since they absorbed OMON which was heavily used during the wars in Chechnya and are heavily used in Caucuses now. But now, can you imagine how that will look? Some parts of the Russian national guard who gets 1.2T Rubles, will be part of a military structure - which will then fall under the military branch? Which has their own budget. So now you will see how things are going to get even more confusing.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:23 am

    As for your other point, as why do they keep it at a set rate even if lets say the economy is much larger in 5 years time? It is that these are a set in stone for a base minimum.  Things can actually be adjusted after 5 years.  Actually, I think it is adjusted every couple of years.  Franco was the one that explained it to me as I was very curious about the same thing.  So its more of a guideline than anything else.  Hence why you see were they ended up spending way more than they initially claimed they were, only after the next year they mention it (see previous posts).  Because something comes up that makes them shell out more money.

    As you may have noticed over the years or even looking through a history book - 5 year plans were popular but rarely did they ever meet 100%. Or even 80%. A lot of times most of these soviet era 5 year plans were considered failures because "60% of it was met". What people are forgetting though, is that - that 60% is still being 60% Further ahead than they were before. And they also had set goals of what they wanted in that 5 years. So even if not all of them were successful, there was still some of it met and thus further head than before. I am actually particularly a fan of them but of course with me saying that, I will be investigated for being a Russian stooge and communist sympathizer Razz
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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:31 am

    Thanks. So the actual (official) spending is closer to 3 trillion? Yeah, now it's starting to make sense. The way media is reporting about these things is not helping at all...

    But even then, I think they will increase budget by the early 2020s anyway, because even 3 trillion won't be a lot by then, possibly. It simply doesn't make sense to keep the budget at the same level as the economy will most probably be much larger in 2025 than in 2018. These massive, decade long programs don't make much sense to me from that perspective... But I think Franco wrote earlier that they will "review" the program every 5 years, so there's that.  

    And as you said, it's obvious that their maintenance costs are ridiculously low compared to the west and the US in particular. Russia has been massively improving the social aspects as well as professionalizing the military with basically nothing (in dollar terms).

    Yes, very conservative plans indeed. I just find it problematic from "messaging" point of view... Some people will take those numbers too seriously. And also it can be used as a major part of anti-Russian propaganda. "Look at their pathetic economy, it's in tatters, that spending is so low (in dollar terms, of course), and it's not going to improve in all that time, blah blah..." Of course they're going to spin everything somehow, we have seen that, but still...
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:45 am

    Kimppis wrote:Thanks. So the actual (official) spending is closer to 3 trillion? Yeah, now it's starting to make sense. The way media is reporting about these things is not helping at all...

    But even then, I think they will increase budget by the early 2020s anyway, because even 3 trillion won't be a lot by then, possibly. It simply doesn't make sense to keep the budget at the same level as the economy will most probably be much larger in 2025 than in 2018. These massive, decade long programs don't make much sense to me from that perspective... But I think Franco wrote earlier that they will "review" the program every 5 years, so there's that.  

    And as you said, it's obvious that their maintenance costs are ridiculously low compared to the west and the US in particular. Russia has been massively improving the social aspects as well as professionalizing the military with basically nothing (in dollar terms).

    Yes, very conservative plans indeed. I just find it problematic from "messaging" point of view... Some people will take those numbers too seriously. And also it can be used as a major part of anti-Russian propaganda. "Look at their pathetic economy, it's in tatters, that spending is so low (in dollar terms, of course), and it's not going to improve in all that time, blah blah..." Of course they're going to spin everything somehow, we have seen that, but still...

    Its a rather difficult thing to understand on the ground. That is why SIPRI always states that Russia's defense spending is significantly more than they state it is. I would say it may not even be 3T rubles, it could very well be about 2.6T Rubles, but the budget for the Military (stuff not related to procurement) is about 800B Rubles so the rest is all procurement. May not sound a whole lot, but it actually is quite a bit when you consider that Su-35 jets are rather cheap and effective, while they don't purchase a new set every year. Instead, they set the amount (pay for it) for x amount of years till all order is set. This allows the money to be used rather smart and gives a lot of time for the MoD to change their demands and needs, without committing too much already. How US/NATO does it is that "We will purchase thousands of this and that" and then they drop tons of money to it. But in the end, a lot of that money is wasted. In Russia, the MiC has actually made many many many complaints in the last couple of years about how low their profit margin is for selling to the government - like 5% or so. To us that sounds good, but companies demand usually base of 10% profit margins.

    The next major issue that was hurting Russia's spending and may have either caused over run in costs or overall money lost was the corruption and the misuse of funds. They found that with the newer methods they introduced late last year, early this year that they have saved millions, if not billions of Rubles during the procurement or outright military spending. How? Well, now they introduce a new method of giving out contracts and tracking the contracts. They also now introducing methods of communication between the MiC and small private companies, etc etc etc. Helping find the alternatives to the more expensive stuff while not degrading in quality. Even going after MiC's through court of law for cost overruns and or theft of money. Almaz Antey was taken to court actually very recently by the MoD.

    In the west, like US and Canada - they throw money at it. Then if cost overruns happen or money is stolen, they throw more money at it. At what expense? Degrading social benefits and or borrowing more money. This method looks great on paper and on the news because "hey, we got the money, we can do anything" but then holes start to appear. Things become way too expensive. Things don't work as intended, etc etc etc. Russia's method is: It shouldn't cost this much, instead, it should be more like costing this much. And there are these and these problems. We need to fix it, and then procure it as soon as we know for sure it works as intended. So they don't get wrapped into something they cannot deal with. In this case, they are dead set on Su-57 simply because it is the next step - replacing the T-10 models (Su-27 and later) for the next couple of decades of a new line of aircrafts on its design. So that is why they pumped money into it. Not like US were they go in a design. Close it. Get another design. Close it. so on so forth.
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    franco

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  franco on Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:54 am

    That's why its called procurement plan. Lets not forget that Russian military spending itself is within 900B Rubles a year, while Rosvardi gets 1.2T


    Where did this come from?
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:00 am

    franco wrote:That's why its called procurement plan. Lets not forget that Russian military spending itself is within 900B Rubles a year, while Rosvardi gets 1.2T


    Where did this come from?


    - Last years the annual defense spending did not exceed 2.9 trillion rubles. But last year the Ministry of Finance paid 800 billion rubles of state guarantees for loans to enterprises of the defense industry complex. Then the department paid an extra 200 billion rubles for these needs. It was this trillion rubles that led to an increase in spending on national defense in 2016 to 3.9 trillion rubles, "he explained.

    According to the expert, this year the expenses will return to the usual 2.9 trillion rubles and this amount will not change much in the next three years. According to the expert, because of Russia's growing geopolitical situation, it is necessary to increase defense spending - their reduction will lead to the disruption of the rearmament program.

    https://iz.ru/670905/alina-evstigneeva-aleksei-ramm/raskhody-rossii-na-oboronu-priblizilis-k-70-mlrd

    IZvestia in this case
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Fri Nov 17, 2017 1:05 am

    Kimppis wrote:Thanks. So the actual (official) spending is closer to 3 trillion? Yeah, now it's starting to make sense. The way media is reporting about these things is not helping at all...
    .


    journos know and understand even less then we do that's why  lol!  lol!


    Kimppis wrote:
    But even then, I think they will increase budget by the early 2020s anyway, because even 3 trillion won't be a lot by then, possibly. It simply doesn't make sense to keep the budget at the same level as the economy will most probably be much larger in 2025 than in 2018..

    Not budget, procurement. If economy grows and percentagewise spending remains it automatically will grow.  If situation will get worse then it always can be increased. Investments in dual purpose technologies can also be hidden in numbers right?

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    Cyberspec

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Cyberspec on Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:04 am

    Thanks guys, for at least partially clearing the fog for those of us who don't enjoy accounting
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    GunshipDemocracy

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  GunshipDemocracy on Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:33 pm



    Actually NG to me is crap and agent of influence but I just wonder how much o f truth is here:
    So where were FSB and Rogozin before? Is it covering of corruption? there are too many cases they aare not bale to work proactively?



    http://www.ng.ru/kartblansh/2017-11-21/3_7119_kartblansh.html

    Nuclear submarines of Russia can remain without nuclear reactors
    In the disruption of the state defense order for the country's submarine fleet, an "Ukrainian trace"




    At two large Volgograd industrial enterprises connected with the execution of the defense order - the metallurgical combine Krasny Oktyabr and the metallurgical plant of the same name, an emergency situation developed. Under threat of failure of the state order on manufacturing of special products for the Russian Navy submarine fleet. Experts consider it necessary to intervene in the situation of the federal center and introduce temporary crisis management at enterprises.

    As NG sources told factory managers, in 2013 the plant and Krasny Oktyabr plant, long-standing partners of the Defense Ministry, received a state defense order for the manufacture of eight special buildings for nuclear reactors of nuclear submarines: "The project also involved an association Sevmash, the leading institute of metallurgy Prometheus and the Afrikantov OKBM. The execution of the state order was calculated for five years, the term of its implementation expires in May 2018. Volgograd enterprises immediately received an advance payment of 2.5 billion rubles. However, as of today, only three out of eight products are ready. The process of working on the remaining five is actually frozen. The defense order on the verge of failure, in time to fulfill it in the remaining time, according to experts, is almost unrealistic. "

    The critical situation at the plant and the Krasny Oktyabr plant was already of interest to law enforcement agencies, as well as the federal Center. According to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin was informed about the threat of disruption of the state defense order. "Now there is a search for options for responding to the current state of emergency," a source in the regional administration told NG. "The situation is complicated by the fact that Dmitry Gerasimenko, the main shareholder of both metallurgical enterprises engaged in the defense order, is not available for communication and is rumored to be either in Cyprus, whether in Italy, or in Ukraine."

    According to media reports, in August of last year Gerasimenko was arrested in absentia by the Tverskoi District Court of Moscow at the request of the Moscow Main Investigation Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and is suspected of involvement in the theft of a loan of $ 65 million allocated by VTB to replenish the working capital of the Krasny Oktyabr plant. Sources close to the management of the Volgograd metallurgical enterprises do not exclude that the disruption of the defense contract could turn out to be a kind of revenge on the part of Gerasimenko for his persecution by Russian law enforcers.

    The former head of the Red October enterprises Valery Yavetsky said in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta that "if the situation does not change very quickly, soon there will be no one to carry out the state defense order at the metallurgical enterprises": "At present, the plants are dismantling and cutting for scrap metal machine tools, directly involved in the production of special steels. At the same time, there are dismissals of workers of enterprises, and the remaining ones are reduced by wages. So, if in December 2016 the number of employees at the Red October factory was about 5200 people, in October 2017 it is already less than 4 thousand people. At the Krasny Oktyabr plant, the number of employees decreased from 1100 people to less than 800. The average salary for the same period fell by 20-30%, from 32.5 thousand to less than 27 thousand rubles. "

    Volgograd enterprises of the Red October, according to military experts, play a significant role in providing the Russian Army with artillery and tank guns. At the enterprises there are three unique machines of centrifugal casting, with the help of which artillery trunks of different calibres are made. However, in a few months it will not be possible to do so, as the plant management plans to carry the machines. Against this were the specialists of the profile CNIITMASH who believe that in this case the quality of military products will inevitably deteriorate and the percentage of marriage in production will grow.

    The threat of disruption of the state order for the Russian Navy's submarine fleet Valery Yavetsky links with the termination of repair of equipment in the workshop for the production of nuclear energy products: "Since April 2017, all types of repair work have been stopped to maintain hazardous production facilities in an efficient condition. The reason for this is the lack of funding and the dismissal of qualified specialists. "

    In history, with the disruption of the defense order, local observers familiar with the situation started talking about the "Ukrainian trace" as well. Sources of "NG" in the "Red October" companies have reported that in the absence of Dmitri Gerasimenko financial and economic issues of companies engaged in the mother Svetlana Gerasimenko owners who not only has the Ukrainian nationality, but supposedly resides in Dnepropetrovsk: "Svetlana Borisovna provides for telephone instructions, what figures to write in the reports, including those related to the execution of the defense order, manage the economy of both enterprises. " According to some employees of the plant "Red October", "the real management of enterprises today is in the hands of individuals with Ukrainian citizenship
    ."

    "Of course, in itself the presence of Ukrainian passports from real leaders of Volgograd metallurgical enterprises is not compromising," political expert Yevgeniy Kalinin commented on the situation. "However, given the complicated relationship between Moscow and Kiev, as well as the threat of disrupting the state defense order at the plant and the Krasny Oktyabr plant, we can assume that all this will interest not only the supporters of the conspiracy theory, but also the practically practical Russian security forces."

    Valery Yavetsky, however, believes that today we should not look for the "hand of Kiev" in a crisis situation at Volgograd enterprises, but by mobilizing all the resources and opportunities that can correct it as soon as possible: "I see no other way than intervention by the federal government and the introduction of temporary crisis management at the plant and the plant "Red October" - they need to be saved together, they are closed in a single technological chain. Without this, it is not necessary to count on the further successful work of the metallurgical enterprises in fulfilling the defense order. "

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    ZoA

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  ZoA on Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:52 pm

    Well... that's a disaster. This could easily delay production of key naval assets by several years.

    On another hand it is hardly surprising. Russian government is from top to bottom is full of liberal 5th column wreckers eager to commit treason first opportunity they get. And if government is that way you can imagine what kind of cluster fuck of backstabbing scum private oligarchs are that actually control much of Russian enterprises. It is time Putin gets his finger out of his ass, start arresting liberals and oligarchs, confiscate their property and line them up against the wall.

    Anonymous Fighter

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Anonymous Fighter on Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:06 pm

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    miketheterrible

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Nov 23, 2017 5:14 am

    https://vpk.name/news/198814_gosoboronzakaz2018_gryadut_peremenyi.html

    The state defense order-2018. Change is coming!

    Apparently, they "punished" the contractors who were purposely inflating prices because of bullshit excuses.

    Austin

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Austin on Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:43 pm

    The Ministry of Finance disclosed the amount of defense spending for the next three years

    For these purposes it is planned to spend almost 6.8 trillion rubles

    http://www.interfax.ru/business/589342


    Moscow. November 28. INTERFAX.RU - Nearly 6.8 trillion rubles in the next three years will be allocated from the budget for spending in the field of national defense, said Deputy Finance Minister Leonid Gornin.

    "The project of the federal budget in 2018-2020 cost in the field of national defense and national security, law enforcement activities recorded in the amount of 2 trillion 271 billion rubles, in 2019 - 2 trillion 228 billion rubles and 2020 - 2 trillion 295 billion rubles," - said Gornin during a meeting of the Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security.

    "The current maintenance of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, including food, transportation, infrastructure maintenance in 2018, we adjusted to the amount of more than 62 billion rubles, the implementation by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of certain measures in 2018 to the amount of more than 14 billion rubles, to pay for utilities and the provision of fuel and fuel, as well as food in 2018, was additionally provided for 23 billion rubles, "Gornin said. The Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security approved the draft budget.

    The State Duma last week adopted in the third and final reading the law on the federal budget for 2018-2020. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, commenting on the adoption of the budget in the third reading, said that its main indicator, "where we see development, is the growth of the gross domestic product."

    The budget revenues in 2018 will be 15.258 trillion rubles, expenditures - 16.529 trillion rubles, deficit - 1.3% of GDP. Revenues in 2019 are planned in the amount of 15.555 trillion rubles, expenses - 16.374 trillion rubles, deficit - 0.8% of GDP. In 2020, revenues are laid at 16.285 trillion rubles, expenditures - 17.155 trillion rubles, a deficit - 0.8% of GDP.

    According to the document, the base oil and gas revenues in 2018 will amount to 5.480 trillion rubles, in 2019 - 5.247 trillion rubles, in 2020 - 5.440 trillion rubles. In this case, non-oil revenues in 2018 will be equal to 9.779 trillion rubles, in 2019 - 10.307 trillion rubles, in 2020 - 10.845 trillion rubles.
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    Kimppis

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

    Post  Kimppis on Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:33 pm

    So the share of oil and gas revenues will drop from around 36% (which is already a considerable decrease compared to earlier) to barely, maybe even slightly below, 30%, while having a non-existent budget deficit? And once again, the budget and all those estimates are very conservative. A gas stations masquerading as a country, ladies and gentlemen!

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    Re: State Armaments Program 2011-2020

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