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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #27

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:36 pm

    zorobabel wrote:Where does Bandera go next?

    Since the AFU apparently have a large numerical advantage on this front, the question is where they go next. Probably will take some time to regroup, torture and kill locals who cooperated with allies.

    After that? Are they going to focus on clearing out the area west of the Zherebets river all the way up to the border with Russia? Or will they continue the drive northward from Dibrova and eastward from Kupyansk to attempt to collapse Russian lines all the way back to Svatovo?

    I'm thinking Russia is satisfied as long as they do keep coming

    They have launched a major offensive with this army they have been building up for 6 months and so far have to show for it some reconquered territory in Kharkov and a captured town in the Donbass.

    If they keep burning through their reserves at this rate, they should be spent in a few more weeks, and that would be it. Threat eliminated.

    I do second the opinion of others though that Krasnyj Liman should have been held, for both propaganda and humanitarian value. It's a very cynical move to not reinforce it given that this is now officially Russian territory, and Russia may find that the propaganda and morale damage will be serious enough to override whatever it wants to achieve in deception.

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    Post  Stealthflanker Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:37 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    It's quite possible Russia wants to draw the enemy further in, or its preparations for its own offensive aren't finished yet and it didn't want to discourage the enemy by reinforcing anywhere.

    Yeah. probably drawing out men from Odessa and Nikolaev.. then make push to capture Both Oblasts, cutting Ukraine entirely from Black Sea. One can look from that perspective. Maybe they wants to see Ukrainian going bold and throw everything at East.

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    Post  thegopnik Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:40 pm

    4-5 more days until 2weeks are up, avoid doom posters until than
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    Post  franco Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:41 pm

    Someone had posted something about the 58th Army commander but it see that it is gone... who was that?
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    Post  limb Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:41 pm

    Stealthflanker wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    It's quite possible Russia wants to draw the enemy further in, or its preparations for its own offensive aren't finished yet and it didn't want to discourage the enemy by reinforcing anywhere.

    Yeah. probably drawing out men from Odessa and Nikolaev.. then make push to capture Both Oblasts, cutting Ukraine entirely from Black Sea.  One can look from that perspective. Maybe they wants to see Ukrainian going bold and throw everything at East.

    That will overextend the frontline, which is now still barely manned. There needs to be a major frontline shortening. There has to be an offensive to zaporozhie and ugledar which bypasses the ukrainian fortifications in donbass.


    Rybar wrote scathing remarks about the Western military district:

    We add that it is illogical to blame the commander of the Central Military District for the failures of the Western Military District, since the results of the mistakes made were already visible in the first days of hostilities. This is confirmed by the huge losses of equipment, including the same 1st Guards Tank Army, and especially its 4th Guards Tank Kantemirovskaya Division, which significantly exceed the losses in manpower. In fact, the Ukrainian army was simply "gifted" tanks and other heavy equipment, which they had in short supply.

    Now, in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv direction, in addition to the delivered NATO equipment, you can find dozens of units of former Russian equipment, which they kindly left back in the spring. And the guards from these court formations of the Western Military District are long overdue.

    You should also not forget about the unsuccessful assault on Kharkov, when only one company of 2 ObrSpN was sent to capture the millionth city (the same assault with 4 tigers and 2 Kamaz trucks). And in April, the enemy even began to successfully push the units of the Western Military District from the city, which could not properly organize defense in an extremely important direction.

    All this and the recent failure in the region of the Kharkov region led to the fact that another commander was appointed to lead the troops of the "court" district.
    Hes blaming both the soldiers and the staff. I guess the rumors about the 4th and 1st armies abandoning large amounts of modern tanks which were captured might be true, although he may be exagerrating.

    Is he dooming too much here?
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    Post  limb Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:43 pm

    franco wrote:Someone had posted something about the 58th Army commander but it see that it is gone... who was that?
    This?

    A few notes from the frontline. About the generals. In the Kharkov direction, General Mykhailo Stepanovych Zusko also commands. His brother Mykola lives in Kyiv and is a colonel who works in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In Ukraine, Mykhail has a huge number of relatives. A bunch of brothers and sisters. Mykhailo is from Volhynia. Zusko is in command of our 58th army. In the course of our war, the 58th Army has always suffered catastrophic losses. Entire columns were burned as if it had been done on purpose. No conclusions were drawn on Zusko. He commanded in the Kharkov direction, where we had a rapid collapse of the front, he also covered one of the flanks of Krasny Liman. So it goes.

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    Post  Backman Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:44 pm

    Mir wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Difficult circumstances?

    They are supposed to be second most powerful military on the planet

    It wasn't even supposed to be close

    This is plain pussyfooting fuckup

    I can only imagine it would have been quite tough for those 500 guys to defend the town against the hordes of zombified nazis.
    I just watched a very short video on SF on Russian airstrikes in the area. Lots of foreign accents in the background.

    The US is hiring men around the world for $2000 a day. This idea that Russia can just fight on the cheap and wait till the me stop showing up doesnt look like a sound strategy anymore
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    Post  Backman Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:47 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    zorobabel wrote:Where does Bandera go next?

    Since the AFU apparently have a large numerical advantage on this front, the question is where they go next. Probably will take some time to regroup, torture and kill locals who cooperated with allies.

    After that? Are they going to focus on clearing out the area west of the Zherebets river all the way up to the border with Russia? Or will they continue the drive northward from Dibrova and eastward from Kupyansk to attempt to collapse Russian lines all the way back to Svatovo?

    I'm thinking Russia is satisfied as long as they do keep coming

    They have launched a major offensive with this army they have been building up for 6 months and so far have to show for it some reconquered territory in Kharkov and a captured town in the Donbass.

    If they keep burning through their reserves at this rate, they should be spent in a few more weeks, and that would be it. Threat eliminated.

    I do second the opinion of others though that Krasnyj Liman should have been held, for both propaganda and humanitarian value. It's a very cynical move to not reinforce it given that this is now officially Russian territory, and Russia may find that the propaganda and morale damage will be serious enough to override whatever it wants to achieve in deception.

    They are hiring around the world. $2000 a day.
    Stealthflanker
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    Post  Stealthflanker Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:52 pm

    limb wrote:

    That will overextend the frontline, which is now still barely manned. There needs to be a major frontline shortening. There has to be an offensive to zaporozhie and ugledar which bypasses the ukrainian fortifications in donbass.

    The thing is, how many men Ukrainian left with and they seem to do offensive in Kherson, Donbass and now Kharkov to Lugansk. Will they have enough to keep pressure at both fronts without being overextended themselves ?.

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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:53 pm

    Backman wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    zorobabel wrote:Where does Bandera go next?

    Since the AFU apparently have a large numerical advantage on this front, the question is where they go next. Probably will take some time to regroup, torture and kill locals who cooperated with allies.

    After that? Are they going to focus on clearing out the area west of the Zherebets river all the way up to the border with Russia? Or will they continue the drive northward from Dibrova and eastward from Kupyansk to attempt to collapse Russian lines all the way back to Svatovo?

    I'm thinking Russia is satisfied as long as they do keep coming

    They have launched a major offensive with this army they have been building up for 6 months and so far have to show for it some reconquered territory in Kharkov and a captured town in the Donbass.

    If they keep burning through their reserves at this rate, they should be spent in a few more weeks, and that would be it. Threat eliminated.

    I do second the opinion of others though that Krasnyj Liman should have been held, for both propaganda and humanitarian value. It's a very cynical move to not reinforce it given that this is now officially Russian territory, and Russia may find that the propaganda and morale damage will be serious enough to override whatever it wants to achieve in deception.

    They are hiring around the world. $2000 a day.

    You can't put together an effective fighting force composed of mercenaries from around the world lumped in.

    And the most experienced mercs will know to stay out of this whole thing

    At most you can use mercs to make up for casualties among existing ones

    The main force of this new Ukrainian army are the Ukrainians (plus prob. Poles and others) trained in NATO states. Once they're eliminated, they're eliminated

    Russia can afford to trade land for a better springboard for its own offensive. But now it's trading Russian territory and this doesn't sit right with anyone, because it shouldn't be necessary. They need to get a move on with whatever they're planning.

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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:55 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Mir wrote:Not to belittle anything but this is clearly a temporary setback for the Russians. They've tried valiantly to hold Krasny Liman under difficult circumstances but in the end they had to withdraw to straighten the line so to speak. Sure it is a ***up, but again it is only temporary. Also - Nothing wrong with constructive criticism, but what is becoming more and more apparent as we go along is the number of Nazi trolls coming out of the closet.

    Difficult circumstances?

    They are supposed to be second most powerful military on the planet

    It wasn't even supposed to be close

    This is plain pussyfooting fuckup


    They had 500 people there only (Rosgvardia) for a reason. If they wanted to deploy a VDV brigade to straighten out the front, they would have done so.

    No it's not a ****-up, just a cynical calculation

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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:01 pm

    Well, one thing needs to happen first. The military tells Putin "F you, we are tired of your hand tying BS we are going n with everything we got and we don't give a **** how much damage we cause".

    They also need to stop their dumb mistakes while you can blame the suits, the suits do not control every single thing.

    It baffles me to this day, the russians with all their intel and minds failed to see coming what I did and I am no General months ago when I saw how they where conducting this operation, its basic tactical stuff I have seen in the field commanding much lesser troops. This is like grade school level command and tactical shit they should know.

    I do not imagine Ukraine will get much further now, at this point Russia has to go all in, by annexing the regions they cannot let this situation carry on.

    Unless you're a general involved in the heat of the action writing your memoirs 20 years later, your account as to what Russian intel, minds, the general staff, etc... failed or didn't fail to see coming - means rather nothing

    No-one will tell Putin to F you. Not the least of which reason would be, is that he's not tying anyone's hands. He's the sort of guy who is smart enough to let the professionals of X, Y or Z do their job without his own interference.
    Yes there may be political imperatives and some rules set but those only he will decide whether to abolish or not. I doubt there is cause for it.

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    franco
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    Post  franco Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:02 pm

    limb wrote:
    franco wrote:Someone had posted something about the 58th Army commander but it see that it is gone... who was that?
    This?

    A few notes from the frontline. About the generals. In the Kharkov direction, General Mykhailo Stepanovych Zusko also commands. His brother Mykola lives in Kyiv and is a colonel who works in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In Ukraine, Mykhail has a huge number of relatives. A bunch of brothers and sisters. Mykhailo is from Volhynia. Zusko is in command of our 58th army. In the course of our war, the 58th Army has always suffered catastrophic losses. Entire columns were burned as if it had been done on purpose. No conclusions were drawn on Zusko. He commanded in the Kharkov direction, where we had a rapid collapse of the front, he also covered one of the flanks of Krasny Liman. So it goes.


    Yes, thanks.

    The 58th Army has been always on the Zaporizhzhia Oblast front over to the middle of the Donetsk southern front. Not sure how it got dragged into this mess and with Chechen nationals serving in it, Ramzan Kadyrov would have screamed loudly if not taken some punitive actions if Zusko's loyalty and competence were questioned.

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:08 pm

    Mir wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Difficult circumstances?

    They are supposed to be second most powerful military on the planet

    It wasn't even supposed to be close

    This is plain pussyfooting fuckup

    I can only imagine it would have been quite tough for those 500 guys to defend the town against the hordes of zombified nazis.
    I just watched a very short video on SF on Russian airstrikes in the area. Lots of foreign accents in the background.
    Really funny that the guy (PapaDragon) who talked for weeks that this is only the first year of the war, that Russia has to take her time to kill as many Nazis as possible, is always there with some dumb remarks about the utterly failing Russians.  Rolling Eyes

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    Post  Podlodka77 Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:08 pm

    Mercouris predicts the advance of the Russian army in the direction of the city of Zaporozhye or to the south - Nikolaev and Odessa.
    What do you think about that, General LIMB ?



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    Post  limb Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:09 pm

    franco wrote:
    limb wrote:
    franco wrote:Someone had posted something about the 58th Army commander but it see that it is gone... who was that?
    This?

    A few notes from the frontline. About the generals. In the Kharkov direction, General Mykhailo Stepanovych Zusko also commands. His brother Mykola lives in Kyiv and is a colonel who works in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In Ukraine, Mykhail has a huge number of relatives. A bunch of brothers and sisters. Mykhailo is from Volhynia. Zusko is in command of our 58th army. In the course of our war, the 58th Army has always suffered catastrophic losses. Entire columns were burned as if it had been done on purpose. No conclusions were drawn on Zusko. He commanded in the Kharkov direction, where we had a rapid collapse of the front, he also covered one of the flanks of Krasny Liman. So it goes.


    Yes, thanks.

    The 58th Army has been always on the Zaporizhzhia Oblast front over to the middle of the Donetsk southern front. Not sure how it got dragged into this mess and with Chechen nationals serving in it, Ramzan Kadyrov would have screamed loudly if not taken some punitive actions if Zusko's loyalty and competence were questioned.  
    This is unverified. Could be a psyop. However there were reports of Zusko being sacked back in june for the 58th having suffered disproportionate losses. I believe the 58th is around kharkov now though.


    The thing is, how many men Ukrainian left with and they seem to do offensive in Kherson, Donbass and now Kharkov to Lugansk. Will they have enough to keep pressure at both fronts without being overextended themselves ?.

    They have over 800000 counting volunteers and mercs. They can easily cover that frontline, because they have massive fortifications on hills and are not afraid of using cannon fodder to stop the advance. Russia cant.


    Last edited by limb on Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  franco Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:09 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    PapaDragon wrote:
    Mir wrote:Not to belittle anything but this is clearly a temporary setback for the Russians. They've tried valiantly to hold Krasny Liman under difficult circumstances but in the end they had to withdraw to straighten the line so to speak. Sure it is a ***up, but again it is only temporary. Also - Nothing wrong with constructive criticism, but what is becoming more and more apparent as we go along is the number of Nazi trolls coming out of the closet.

    Difficult circumstances?

    They are supposed to be second most powerful military on the planet

    It wasn't even supposed to be close

    This is plain pussyfooting fuckup


    They had 500 people there only (Rosgvardia) for a reason. If they wanted to deploy a VDV brigade to straighten out the front, they would have done so.

    No it's not a ****-up, just a cynical calculation

    Actually Luhansk reservist and Russian volunteers russia

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    Post  kvs Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:09 pm

    The only question is how many thousands of men did the Kiev regime lose to take an empty town with 500 defenders.

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    Post  limb Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:11 pm

    kvs wrote:The only question is how many thousands of men did the Kiev regime lose to take an empty town with 500 defenders.

    Most likely around 2000 dead and wounded at most.

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    Post  Hole Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:11 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Disappointing, but yes it was the other option as compared to the preferred one of simply holding the city.
    The toll on the civilian population there will be harsh. Cynical all of this is.

    Russia could obviously have held Krasnyj Liman had it wanted to, or launched an entire offensive to surround or drive-back the Ukrs. To postulate that the city fell because Russian forces couldn't secure its flanks is laughable. There are dozens of Russian brigades and regiments that could have been deployed where-ever.
    That anyone actually believes this version astounds me.

    It's quite possible Russia wants to draw the enemy further in, or its preparations for its own offensive aren't finished yet and it didn't want to discourage the enemy by reinforcing anywhere.
    All the dooming by these nationalists and right-wing groups (why haven't they signed up themselves?), and now with Kadyrov joining in, does make me wonder. Certainly Kadyrov wouldn't be doing it without agreement from above. He's even talking about using nukes (lol). It does seem like someone high-up wants to create the impression of disaster and mismanagement.
    But actually believing in that is possible only for a brainless doomer. When you count the amount of forces and firepower Russia has at its disposal, and its record in Kherson (which is a buffer for Russian proper territory - the Crimea).
    Kadyrov is a very emotional man. He is a great middleman between the High Command and the men on the ground but he is no Zhukov.

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    Post  caveat emptor Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:12 pm

    franco wrote:Someone had posted something about the 58th Army commander but it see that it is gone... who was that?
    Which one? Present commander or ex commander? Gurulyov was commanding 58th Army till 2016 and someone posted his comments on whole Lyman affair.
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    Post  limb Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:12 pm

    Podlodka77 wrote:Mercouris predicts the advance of the Russian army in the direction of the city of Zaporozhye or to the south - Nikolaev and Odessa.
    What do you think about that, General LIMB ?





    Just wishful thinking, like the all those other super-imminent 4D chess offensives.
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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:12 pm

    Zaporozhia obl. is not where the action is so the question of this Zusko's loyalty is not relevant to any matter being discussed

    More than anything I'm disappointed not in our commanders or soldiers or leadership, but just in our own people. If there are so many fking doomers, and people ready to run around like headless chickens before any serious crisis has even personally enveloped them - then how the f*** can you depend on these masses on anything?
    Are you guys really so susceptible to the alphabet of NATO psyops and propaganda stunts? They pull on you the most obvious tricks in the book and yet you fall for it.

    Pretty soon you people will be protesting in the streets, and then you'll be doing NATO's job for them.
    But screw Telegram and online forums, there are enough doomers and panickers in a city like St. Petersburg to threaten the government here if the West manages to manipulate and incite them the right way.

    Basically my disappointment is in that soft power and propaganda really does matter, you cannot just wish it away.
    No matter what the morale of units at the front, the home front can be seriously damaged unless Russia does start to take its image seriously and drive back the Ukrs from the land they've taken. And just in general, make a show of taking more land rapidly. Even if it gets more of our soldiers killed. I'm afraid this may be the only thing that can appease the chorus of chicken hawks and chicken littles.

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    Post  Backman Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:13 pm

    Some counter doom. Yay Neutral From ASBattlefield Insights

    It is reported that only 500 Lugansk Cossacks and Cuban Cossacks (volunteers from Russia) were defending Lyman / Krasny Liman for around 2 weeks.

    Russian Armed Forces 20th Guards Combined Arms Army were providing long range artillery support without any frontline presence, according to Russian reports over the weeks.

    Ukrainian forces attacking the settlement were numbering 6 to 9 thousand troops.

    Lyman / Krasny Lyman has received a disproportionate amount of attention. We have never focused on this settlement, not in May, not in September. We never reported on it in depth. In our opinion, there’s one far more important battle taking place, and that is the battle for Bakhmut.


    Lyman is another Snake Island. At the moment, it is the only place where the Ukrainian armed forces offensive succeeded: so it is being reported on extensively. The offensive has failed everywhere else along the entire frontline; especially in Kherson. This can always change, but factually, the only party at the moment capturing strategically important territory is the Russian side in the southern direction, specifically in Bakhmut.

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    Post  flamming_python Sat Oct 01, 2022 9:15 pm

    limb wrote:
    kvs wrote:The only question is how many thousands of men did the Kiev regime lose to take an empty town with 500 defenders.

    Most likely around 2000 dead and wounded at most.

    Considering that Krasnyj Liman's defenders successfully withdrew, that wouldn't be a bad trade.
    We have no idea however whether the Ukrainians lost 2000 or 8000

    But again, at this stage the propaganda battle starts to matter more. The Kremlin is making a mistake by ignoring it utterly.

    franco, d_taddei2, jon_deluxe and Belisarius like this post


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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #27 - Page 5 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #27

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