The Situation in the Ukraine. #32

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Not recognising the Donbass as independent at this point is not useful anymore.

Maybe Putin could officially say something like that:

7 years are gone and nothing has been done. If in the next 2 weeks the Ucraine does not start officially implementing the Minsk 2 agreement I will recognize the DNR and LNR as independent states.

In order to shift the responsibility to the Ukraine and the west

That will break the Minsk agreements and leave Russia as the belligerent party.

Kiev has been trying to wiggle itself out of Minsk for the past 7 years, and you propose to give them their prize on silver platter?

Russia's also not going to get another chance to anchor the Ukraine to a federal model.

Minks agreement isn't happening and it never will, Ukraine will never follow through with it.

That complete delusion to think its happening.

But very well, When Ukraine ends up in NATO and we park missiles down there, don't whine about it.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Minks agreement isn't happening and it never will, Ukraine will never follow through with it.

That complete delusion to think its happening.

But very well, When Ukraine ends up in NATO and we park missiles down there, don't whine about it.

Agree.

IMO the decision was made when US rejected russian proposals.

All the "diplomacy" since then is for gaining some time. The conditions to launch an attack must not be all reached so they wait a little more. It coukd be a weather issue or maybe they are producing missiles at full speed to replace stocks that will be fired at ukrainian targets.

The Lavrov's remarks about "there are some signs in US answer worth keeping the talk alive" are total bullshit. It's like getting 5$ when you ask for 1000$.

PapaDragon wrote:

ATLASCUB wrote:I thought there wasn't going to be an invasion, and if it were to be one it would be limited to just the Donbass cause that was the "smart" thing to do...

I see a lot of tap dancing from frequent users here... what's changed in 24 hrs?

https://media.giphy.com/media/fteggC27zIWZv6vPSi/giphy.gif

Any more funny gifs you'd like to share?

I mean we are not next 24 hours now...

You dumb or what.... scratch that I already know. There was obvious tap dancing. Moreover it can be 24, 48, a month, a year, a decade. I can share many more.

Is his opinion coming from a Kremlin toilet distillery?

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Minks agreement isn't happening and it never will, Ukraine will never follow through with it.

That complete delusion to think its happening.

But very well, When Ukraine ends up in NATO and we park missiles down there, don't whine about it.

Agree.

IMO the decision was made when US rejected russian proposals.

All the "diplomacy" since then is for gaining some time. The conditions to launch an attack must not be all reached so they wait a little more. It coukd be a weather issue or maybe they are producing missiles at full speed to replace stocks that will be fired at ukrainian targets.

The Lavrov's remarks about "there are some signs in US answer worth keeping the talk alive" are total bullshit. It's like getting 5$ when you ask for 1000$.

Russia will not leave the Ukraine be of course, but no such attack as you imagine it will happen

It could rather be a war between the LNR/DNR and Ukraine, or instead Russia trying to cut Zelensky's options and box him in through piling on pressure, so that his political opponents have the opportunity to seize power instead.

Arkanghelsk wrote:https://sputniknews.com/20220215/russian-state-duma-approves-draft-bill-on-recognition-of-dpr-and-lpr-1093049805.html

Welcome to Russia Donetsk and Lughansk !

As I understand it the United Russia party have submitted a similar bill but it is going to Ministries for comment. This new bill obviously overrides the old one.

Some view it as sending the issue into the long grass as strategically Russia, at least until Minsk is sorted one way or the other, needs the two Oblasts staying in Ukraine as a counterbalance.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Minks agreement isn't happening and it never will, Ukraine will never follow through with it.

That complete delusion to think its happening.

But very well, When Ukraine ends up in NATO and we park missiles down there, don't whine about it.

You forget the fundamental reality - no one is trading New York, DC, or London for Kiev, nor for that matter for Riga or Tallinn. NATO is a man holding a gun to his head saying don't do it, or I'll shoot! Russia simply has to apply Israel style logic to Ukraine. The first offensive weapon system deployed to Ukraine - NATO member or not, is destroyed day 1. Just as no one doubts Israel attacks any Iranian nuclear capability day 1. Russia only needs two things - to maintain the ability to deliver such military strikes and the willingness to do so.

Isos wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Minks agreement isn't happening and it never will, Ukraine will never follow through with it.

That complete delusion to think its happening.

But very well, When Ukraine ends up in NATO and we park missiles down there, don't whine about it.

Agree.

IMO the decision was made when US rejected russian proposals.

All the "diplomacy" since then is for gaining some time. The conditions to launch an attack must not be all reached so they wait a little more. It coukd be a weather issue or maybe they are producing missiles at full speed to replace stocks that will be fired at ukrainian targets.

The Lavrov's remarks about "there are some signs in US answer worth keeping the talk alive" are total bullshit. It's like getting 5$ when you ask for 1000$.

No Putin thought if he could get the EU to agree to a Neutral Ukraine then that'd be fine but its clear they never will.

But now its clear he only has the two choices take Ukraine by force or NATO moves in eventually.

calripson wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Minks agreement isn't happening and it never will, Ukraine will never follow through with it.

That complete delusion to think its happening.

But very well, When Ukraine ends up in NATO and we park missiles down there, don't whine about it.

You forget the fundamental reality - no one is trading New York, DC, or London for Kiev, nor for that matter for Riga or Tallinn. NATO is a man holding a gun to his head saying don't do it, or I'll shoot! Russia simply has to apply Israel style logic to Ukraine. The first offensive weapon system deployed to Ukraine - NATO member or not, is destroyed day 1. Just as no one doubts Israel attacks any Iranian nuclear capability day 1. Russia only needs two things - to maintain the ability to deliver such military strikes and the willingness to do so.

No, Russia will not start attacking NATO personnel in a NATO country NATO personal will only enter once Ukraine Joins, don't even waste my time with thoughts like you have because there are silly to say the least.

Putin needs to attack BEFORE Ukraine joins not after, after is far to late.

NATO showed that it is a paper tiger . Exactly a paper organisation for peace - time . As soon as any hint of war , it's members made their excuses and left the room . What you see lately , is no sign of unity . Moving a few hundred troops here or there or selling some planes , anyone can do . Anyone can stand shoulder to shoulder in a warm room . In reality UK troops left already . And this was a success for Russia . The NATO alliance , split up . So they may show a United front , when attacking a weak nation like Afghanistan or Libya . Here they may stay a short while , but attacking Russia !?

These European nations are in truth not United . They will not unite against a strong foe . No United land or Air Army or Sea navy , standing shoulder to shoulder , like their politicians . There are two areas of security concern : The first are the American Nukes under American control in Europe and the second is the Nazi units growing in Europe , we may call these the European ISIS. In the first case , similar Nukes can be stationed near American shores , on artificial Islands or of stationary Barges or platforms . In the second case , political parties and groups can be helped to push these Nazi elements out , in democratic elections . And these nations police their own nations .

So, when Russia is about to attack Ukraine, Shoigu goes to Syria

Maskirowka

I think many here are missing the big picture.

As long as the majority of Ukrainian population sees Russia as a hostile country Russia is battling an uphill battle.

Russia passively watched for 20 years (from early 1990s to 2010s) as Ukraine was slowly turned into an anti-Russian country. You have to remember that back in 1991 Ukraine actually voted to stay within the Soviet Union! Ukraine was not - and I believe still is not - a naturally anti-Russian country like Poland, Lithuania and Finland are. These three countries are anti-Russian countries to the core, and nothing can ever change that. But Ukraine is not.

A fundamental change inside Ukraine - driven by internal nationalist and external Atlanticist forces - slowly turned Ukraine into what it is today. Russia - as always - was too slow to react. In fact Russia did pretty much nothing to counter this development. All Russia did was to throw billions of dollars of money into Ukraine with gas transit payments and other subsidies without getting anything in return.

The positive side in this story is that if Ukraine was turned into an anti-Russian country in a relatively short time then this development also can be reversed. But how? Russia has shown little to prove that it is able to project any soft power. Russia is only good at projecting military power, but horrible at projecting soft and cultural power. Young Ukrainians look to the West and not to Russia. Only people in Ukraine with sympathies to Russia are the older generations.

Russia cannot afford to let Ukraine join the NATO, or that US military bases and missiles are put to Ukraine. Currently military means are the only way Russia can prevent this. How much better it would be if Ukrainians voluntarily wanted to align themselves with Russia and screw the West?

magnumcromagnon wrote:

https://twitter.com/RealPepeEscobar/status/1493635181370089472

If what's happing in Donbass is a genocide then why doesn't Putin stop this genocide by accepting Donetsk and Lugansk into RF?

- The glorious backers of 404's independence (the oligarchs and relatives)have left by their private jets
- The illustrious supporting NATO nations (USA, UK etc.) have left Kiev or relocated to Lvov
- The prestigious NATO powers did not sent a single soldier to defend 404
- The precious military assistance to 404 limited itself to a mere few container loads of Javelins and NLAWs
- The fabulous West has thrown 404 under the bus

Really hilarious, ridiculous and humorous.
You can see this kind of stuff only in movies.

The people living in 404 have witnessed all the above. Let them now think really hard (if there are still some unpolluted brain cells left).

Karl Haushofer wrote:

If what's happing in Donbass is a genocide then why doesn't Putin stop this genocide by accepting Donetsk and Lugansk into RF?

No advantage of having LDNR in Russia at this moment. That can happen later.
It is more advantageous to keep them in 404 for the time being.

The word "genocide" is being used by Putin for pressuring purposes on the West that has already chickened out.

owais.usmani wrote:

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
But very well, When Ukraine ends up in NATO and we park missiles down there, don't whine about it.

When those missiles are taken out within 24 hours of being deployed by precision strikes of Iskandars and Kalibers, don't whine about it.

and when russian forces get bombed for attacking NATO forces do not whine, your a fool for thinking how you are.

These aren't some jhadists no one cares dies, these are formal troops.