However it gives him that card in his hand.
It certainly is a card to play but for the moment he will want to keep that card in the hand.
He might even mention to Kiev and the west that he wont use this card if they get Minsk going again... worst case scenario and he is sick of the wests bullshit and it is clear Minsk is dead then he can get them to do this again and threaten to sign it or just sign it and when the west complains just say Minsk wasn't happening anyway...
This sort of things got traction and results in Georgia.
But who knew the tie eater would go full retard?
Watch and learn young padawan. Watch and learn
When Russia was relatively weak and fragile this is the way it had to be done, but it was still effective even then, but now Russia is stronger and much less fragile it is still a good way to do things because it works and the west thinks it is Russia being weak but it is actually Russia being smart.
Russia knows that the west doesn't want to allow them to solve the issue peacefully (and also the neonazi groups will seek the blood of the ucrainian politicians if they try to implement the Minsk agreement) so maybe Putin may actually decide to unilaterally recognize the indipendence of the Donbass (Kosovo style).
May have to do that later... but there is no rush at the moment...
What is clear is that Russia gained NOTHING with this build up. Ukraine got more weapons, NATO is reenforcing it eastern flank and Ukraine is still asking for nato membership which Stoltenberg welcomes warmly.
The US has said openly if Russia gets involved US troops are gone and will not take part. Ukraine has said it thinks it can take the rebels but would be crushed by Russia very quickly. Russia has said it has no intention to invade but if Kiev starts killing Russian citizens then it will respond.
It is all pretty clear to me.
Having the US as an ally is not all the US likes to crack that up to be.... no guaranteed win there...
Just a promise of sanctions and running away... not like the last superpower at all.
The weapons they got sent are time expired and largely useless... if they are attacking the Donbass and Lugansk those rockets are going to be used against houses and firing positions... if the guys using them are not sniped first... and assuming they even work in the cold.
So if they don't attack they will loose more than if they didn't send troops in the begining. As soon as they send back their troops in home bases, Ukraine will join NATO and they will quickly deploy nato air policing missions there.
They wont be joining HATO any time soon... no matter how bad the UK or US want it... but if they do their first demand from HATO is to help them get their territory back... namely Crimea... what are you going to tell them?
You are a HATO member so we can base missiles closer to Russia, but we are not interested in actually starting WWIII...
Wonder how they will take that?
Besides the Ukraine is broken.... it is going to take a lot of US and EU money to fix them... good luck with that.
After the conference, Putin now has to make a choice. Minsk agreement will not happen to believe that at this stage is silly.
1. Annex Ukraine
2. Allow it to Join NATO
Zelen made it clear he wants in and the German chancellor welcomed the idea, the clock is now ticking. There are no longer any other alternatives. It's come to war.
Option three... recognise the Donbass and Lugansk regions as independent states and open Russian borders to those states for full and open trade... when shells from the Ukraine start landing those regions might ask Russia for peace keeper troops to be located near its border with the Ukraine with orders to return fire when fired upon.
If Kiev tries what Tiblisi did to recover their lost regions... well this time Russia is ready... it will be a one sided blood bath.
Not recognising the Donbass as independent at this point is not useful anymore.
Maybe Putin could officially say something like that:
7 years are gone and nothing has been done. If in the next 2 weeks the Ucraine does not start officially implementing the Minsk 2 agreement I will recognize the DNR and LNR as independent states.
In order to shift the responsibility to the Ukraine and the west
And that might work, but if it doesn't it still works...
That will break the Minsk agreements and leave Russia as the belligerent party.
Kiev has been trying to wiggle itself out of Minsk for the past 7 years, and you propose to give them their prize on silver platter?
Russia's also not going to get another chance to anchor the Ukraine to a federal model.
The Minsk agreements are not being implimented... and Russia is not a party to the agreements... any country on the planet is free to acknowledge these new independent states if they want.... they are not parties to the Minsk agreement either.
The Minsk agreements are all about what Kiev has to do... Russia is not mentioned.
Minks agreement isn't happening and it never will, Ukraine will never follow through with it.
That complete delusion to think its happening.
But very well, When Ukraine ends up in NATO and we park missiles down there, don't whine about it.
Park your missiles where you please... you will do so anyway... some nuclear weapons parked in orbit above the US could be the obvious solution.... any shit from the Ukraine and US lights go out...
All the "diplomacy" since then is for gaining some time. The conditions to launch an attack must not be all reached so they wait a little more. It coukd be a weather issue or maybe they are producing missiles at full speed to replace stocks that will be fired at ukrainian targets.
The weather argument is bullshit... Russian artillery and cruise missiles all work just fine in cold or hot or dry or wet weather.
Maybe that is what it is all about... the US is hoping Russia will use a hypersonic missile so they can get samples to get their own version working...
Some view it as sending the issue into the long grass as strategically Russia, at least until Minsk is sorted one way or the other, needs the two Oblasts staying in Ukraine as a counterbalance.
Counterbalance would suggest these two regions have power and say in the future of the Ukraine, but they don't... they are appendages that Kiev wants to blend and chop up and then reattach as sausages, with the contents all minced up and pliable... and brainless.
No Putin thought if he could get the EU to agree to a Neutral Ukraine then that'd be fine but its clear they never will.
But now its clear he only has the two choices take Ukraine by force or NATO moves in eventually.
Turkey will get into the EU before Ukraine gets in to HATO.
No, Russia will not start attacking NATO personnel in a NATO country NATO personal will only enter once Ukraine Joins, don't even waste my time with thoughts like you have because there are silly to say the least.
Kiev believes Crimea is Ukrainian territory... will they do nothing when Kiev demands HATO helps them get their territory back?
Putin needs to attack BEFORE Ukraine joins not after, after is far to late.
Ukraine wont join HATO.
Putin does not need to attack anyone.
So, when Russia is about to attack Ukraine, Shoigu goes to Syria
The only sources suggesting a Russian invasion are in the west and they have a long tradition of getting such things wrong... because most don't understand the situation to begin with... Russia = aggressor... Russian troops on border with Ukraine... must be for invasion... first you hear 100,000 Russian troops there... now it is 200,000... call be when it gets to 1 million...
As long as the majority of Ukrainian population sees Russia as a hostile country Russia is battling an uphill battle.
Russia is not fighting at all... they let the US and the EU have the Ukraine because the Ukraine is no prize.
Russia passively watched for 20 years (from early 1990s to 2010s) as Ukraine was slowly turned into an anti-Russian country. You have to remember that back in 1991 Ukraine actually voted to stay within the Soviet Union! Ukraine was not - and I believe still is not - a naturally anti-Russian country like Poland, Lithuania and Finland are. These three countries are anti-Russian countries to the core, and nothing can ever change that. But Ukraine is not.
I would say... was not.
Russia - as always - was too slow to react.
Not Russias job to piss money away making their neighbours love them...
In fact Russia did pretty much nothing to counter this development. All Russia did was to throw billions of dollars of money into Ukraine with gas transit payments and other subsidies without getting anything in return.
While they were not openly hostile Russia traded normally with them and the Ukraine was the benefactor of that relationship by a wide margin... you could say their economy depended on the good will of Russia.
They have thrown that away... are they now supposed to give them a good bitch slap to wake them up and pour money down their throat and revive them and get them off their current crack addiction?
The Ukraine turned on Russia in the hope of living the good life with western money and western investment and it all turned to shit for them.
Russia doesn't have to invade and fix everything for them... let their new allies pay for that.
The positive side in this story is that if Ukraine was turned into an anti-Russian country in a relatively short time then this development also can be reversed. But how?
Is it positive? Because if they are so stupid that 5 billion dollars and some cookies will make them burn people to death for the crime of wanting to speak Russian then why bother... the US prints its own money and can always afford to throw more into the pot if it is forced to.
Let them enjoy their new found freedoms and democracy out from under the jackboot of Moscow.
Russia has shown little to prove that it is able to project any soft power. Russia is only good at projecting military power, but horrible at projecting soft and cultural power. Young Ukrainians look to the West and not to Russia. Only people in Ukraine with sympathies to Russia are the older generations.
Sounds like more of a problem for the Ukraine than for Russia to me.
Russia cannot afford to let Ukraine join the NATO, or that US military bases and missiles are put to Ukraine.
Ukraine wont join HATO any time soon... the US is pushing it as a threat to wind up Russia, but just like their promise not an inch to the east, it is meaningless.
Currently military means are the only way Russia can prevent this. How much better it would be if Ukrainians voluntarily wanted to align themselves with Russia and screw the West?
Their only chance is via the ballot box and they used it to vote in the clown who promised to talk to Russia and solve their problems... a bit like Trump promised better relations with Russia and to bring US troops home from the wars around the world they are engaged in... neither did very well.
If what's happing in Donbass is a genocide then why doesn't Putin stop this genocide by accepting Donetsk and Lugansk into RF?
They don't want to join the Russian federation... they are ukrainian.... they want autonomy, not to join the RF.
They just don't want to be ruled by Kiev.
and when russian forces get bombed for attacking NATO forces do not whine, your a fool for thinking how you are.
These aren't some jhadists no one cares dies, these are formal troops.
Withdrawing air power three months before withdrawing ground troops got a bare minimum 13 US troops killed in a single bombing at the air port... almost certainly others died.... but it was all used to discredit Biden or Trump... no one gave a shit about the soldiers or the people that helped them that were hung out to dry.
if it comes to Nuclear war, we all die together.
When HATO missiles go to the Ukraine the TOPOLs will likely go to Cuba... and Nicaragua and Venezuela.
I don't agree. There are no conditions for NATO membership.
Some europeans countries will not allow it.
There are european countries that want an Europe with Russia, not against Russia.
Forgive him... he is American and just assumes the EU does as it is told... normally he is right, but they are bitches... but not suicidal bitches...
Ukraine received Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems and ammunition from Lithuania
They will get good money from ISIS and Al quada for those missiles if they can change their use by dates to make them look like new stock.
I'm really wondering what will be the most painful for ukrainians. Russia blitzgrieging them or nato banks coming back for the money for all those equipements send there and loans given to them.
None of these weapons are free...
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