The Situation in the Ukraine. #32

The more strange and terrible news comes from over here in north America the more I think this is a distraction. I am probably wrong but I still dont think invasion will happen. There is nothing for Putin to gain in it right now, unless there are things we dont know about which is obviously going to be the case.

Still this is very convenient for my admin that has top cabinet members implicated in a coming grand jury. I mean crazy seditionist stuff and the worst political scandal and coverup in America in the 21st century. Looking at you Jake Sullivan. Even Biden and some others were briefed on what Clinton's lawyere were doing ffs.

https://sputniknews.com/20220215/russian-state-duma-approves-draft-bill-on-recognition-of-dpr-and-lpr-1093049805.html

Welcome to Russia Donetsk and Lughansk !

Nice. Some good results here. For one thing a ceasefire on the contact line that I expect will actually hold. For another thing, an undermining of trust among the Ukrainian population towards their preferred foreign partners and the political gains of the opposition there. And of course a little entertainment for the world's non-Western leaders as well.

But really the main thing is the strategic imperative. Putin and Shoigu have left the Ukrainian question open-ended, subject to further negotiations
And they both know that Zelensky and his people will aim to endlessly prolong these negotiations and beat around the bush just as they always have. Of course they do.

But this works to Russia's advantage, as it allows them re-escalate things here anytime they want, and probably with greater forces, especially near Poland in Belarus - justifying it by pointing to Kiev not taking the negotiations seriously. Thus in this way, pulling in US troops into the theater again and probably in greater amounts.

In the meantime Russia will move onto another theater I suspect. Still a while to go before D-Day Taiwan, and some more work has to be done.

Arrow wrote:It does not mean anything.  VVP must approve this.

Which he won't, as it would break Minsk.

And Putin certainly wouldn't abide that

flamming_python wrote:

Arrow wrote:It does not mean anything.  VVP must approve this.

Which he won't, as it would break Minsk.

And Putin certainly wouldn't abide that

However it gives him that card in his hand.

par far wrote:Ju89rsG7v9A

He makes a critical observation. The management class (including politicians) thinks that highly qualified personnel (HQP) is like
a book on a shelf which they can pick up any time. I saw this thinking first hand in Canada in the scientific research realm.
The clowns think that you can let people go to fend for themselves and then 10 or 20 years later you just restart the research
project. This retardation is apparent in the US in the nuclear industry as well. After 40 years they have to start from scratch
even if they have some documentation on 8 inch floppies.

franco wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Arrow wrote:It does not mean anything.  VVP must approve this.

Which he won't, as it would break Minsk.

And Putin certainly wouldn't abide that

However it gives him that card in his hand.

Yup, demonstrates to Kiev that he has it.

So they ought to take Minsk seriously.

PapaDragon wrote:

flamming_python wrote:...That part about asking our Southern Slavic bros for advice on conflicts with their neighbours

Yeah, the edict against it still stands I'm afraid

Edict against Eastern Slavic "bros" also stands

Unless you still claim that all that pussyfooting has been beneficial for y'a?

Because you are totally swimming in brotherly love on all sides thanks to your humanitarian bitch bullshittery

Watch and learn young padawan. Watch and learn

The build up keeping going on despite some reports of russians sending some units back to their home bases.

flamming_python wrote:Nice. Some good results here. For one thing a ceasefire on the contact line that I expect will actually hold. For another thing, an undermining of trust among the Ukrainian population towards their preferred foreign partners and the political gains of the opposition there. And of course a little entertainment for the world's non-Western leaders as well.

But really the main thing is the strategic imperative. Putin and Shoigu have left the Ukrainian question open-ended, subject to further negotiations
And they both know that Zelensky and his people will aim to endlessly prolong these negotiations and beat around the bush just as they always have. Of course they do.

But this works to Russia's advantage, as it allows them re-escalate things here anytime they want, and probably with greater forces, especially near Poland in Belarus - justifying it by pointing to Kiev not taking the negotiations seriously. Thus in this way, pulling in US troops into the theater again and probably in greater amounts.

In the meantime Russia will move onto another theater I suspect. Still a while to go before D-Day Taiwan, and some more work has to be done.

Arrow wrote:It does not mean anything.  VVP must approve this.

Which he won't, as it would break Minsk.

And Putin certainly wouldn't abide that

I don't know, the Minsk 2 agreements were signed in early 2015 (7 years ago) and not a single point was implemented from the Ukrainian government. Now they even say that they wanted to change the order of the actions (e.g take control of the border with Russia before actually new elections, amnistiy for the rebels, partial autonomy, official status to Russian language, etc) or ignore it completely.

Russia knows that the west doesn't want to allow them to solve the issue peacefully (and also the neonazi groups will seek the blood of the ucrainian politicians if they try to implement the Minsk agreement) so maybe Putin may actually decide to unilaterally recognize the indipendence of the Donbass (Kosovo style).

I do not believe they will reunite with it like it happened with Crimea, though, just that they will be able to more easily offer official protection to the newly recognized republic (and offer a new path for other eventual regione in the south east of Ucraine to join the newly created novorussian federation)

Putin also said US didn't provide any real solution and what's going on in Donbas is a genocide.

Diplomacy clearly failed and russian giving it a new chance is IMO only to buy some time. Why ? I don't know. Maybe it's a matter of weather or some supply lines issues...

What is clear is that Russia gained NOTHING with this build up. Ukraine got more weapons, NATO is reenforcing it eastern flank and Ukraine is still asking for nato membership which Stoltenberg welcomes warmly.

So if they don't attack they will loose more than if they didn't send troops in the begining. As soon as they send back their troops in home bases, Ukraine will join NATO and they will quickly deploy nato air policing missions there.

After the conference, Putin now has to make a choice. Minsk agreement will not happen to believe that at this stage is silly.

1. Annex Ukraine

2. Allow it to Join NATO

Zelen made it clear he wants in and the German chancellor welcomed the idea, the clock is now ticking. There are no longer any other alternatives. It's come to war.

Since when does the West impose choices on Russia?

In Georgia? In Syria? Maybe Kazakhstan?

US has no power to impose choices anymore, that much is clear

The bombastic declarations fizzled out, Duma passed resolution on recognition of the DPR and LPR

080808 is repeating, no attack can happen on Donetsk and Lughansk

As for US and NATO,  all US and western marionettes fled kiev for Lvov.

The US is abandoning its positions under agitpropaganda , in the end they cannot sustain their empire anymore

Theres no need to attack Kiev, the US has left

As for sanctions, well Nord Stream 2 will be up and running soon if Washington cannot get Kiev to go with the program

You clearly don't know how the Russian Gov works, those regions still aren't "recognized".

Your post also contains so many inaccuracies.

As for Zelensky , the sacrificial lamb withstood his ground well to sleepy joe

Joe's election chances going up in smokes

https://www.rt.com/russia/549444-zelensky-tells-elites-come-home/

If oligarchs do not return, maybe we will see Ukraine join EAEU

https://sputniknews.com/20220215/us-nato-positively-responded-to-russian-initiatives-they-have-been-rejecting-for-years-lavrov-says-1093049875.html

Ahhhh this is the kicker right here:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that in their response to Moscow's security proposals the US and NATO reacted positively to some of the initiatives that they have been rejecting for years. He namely referred to the bloc's readiness to discuss arms control treaties for Europe.

So they want to keep their open door revolving, well let it revolve. As long as they stay in Lvov and out of Kiev it's no problem, Ukraine is not joining NATO

And Lavrov says NATO is willing to discuss arms control. So the missiles are leaving

Where is the clown show that was declaring all was lost?

Not recognising the Donbass as independent at this point is not useful anymore.

Maybe Putin could officially say something like that:

7 years are gone and nothing has been done. If in the next 2 weeks the Ucraine does not start officially implementing the Minsk 2 agreement I will recognize the DNR and LNR as independent states.

In order to shift the responsibility to the Ukraine and the west

SeigSoloyvov wrote:You clearly don't know how the Russian Gov works, those regions still aren't "recognized".

Your post also contains so many inaccuracies.

DPR and LPR are safe as long as the beauties follow minsk 2

As Putin said, you may not like it, but you must put up with it my beauty 

If not, well then , there are no more flights out of kiev I think

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-nord-stream-2-would-cement-europes-energy-security-2022-02-15/

Why couldn't joe start the false flag everyone said would come?

Well maybe you did not evaluate recent history correctly, if Joe needed the war desperately even predicting Wednesday there would be an invasion, and categorically every wednesday I should mention there was to be an invasion

Then how come it never happened? With so many stingers and javelins why did the UAF shit its pants, and our lovely bandera friends never fire a shot?

Well..  my beauties, please visit exhibit A Kazakhstan for all information,  and take a souvenir with you when you leave

Joe has been needing a war for more than 1 year now, and he could not get Kazakhstan to spark, in fact their soft power was crushed under the weight of the CSTO

In Ukraine, it has become appalling the lack of soft power the West has to cancel nord stream 2, to start the war, and to cajole the globe to its call

It was obvious to those who observed events soberly , that in this case , if Joe could not get zelensky to jump off the cliff, that how could he get the likes of Scholz or even Macron to sniff his farts in the same room?

This is the guy who lost Kabul forever and now Kiev, the master chess player, who is barred from flights because he will fall down the stairs if the wind blows too hard

I will name drop because those who placed their bets on the Global Predictor were wrong, those like seig, Tsavo, Atlascub should have looked deeper into the crisis plaguing the foggy rotten bottom. 

The crisis which has Marco Rubio passing the HUNTER and PIPES act to stop Joe from selling crack to American partners, and the one which barred Wisconsin from allowing mail in voting, and yes the same one which galvanized truckers to shut Canada down

Yes it is the same crisis, which the west needed to die on any hill for, but sadly did not get a chance. It died without any bang only a whimper 

Good luck in midterms my friends, Lavrov and Putin will keep the game plan, whoever will occupy Pennsylvania Avenue next can do what they like, but they will have to face the music 

As for Ukraine, I feel we will have more meetings with our brotherly people sooner than many think

SeigSoloyvov wrote:After the conference, Putin now has to make a choice. Minsk agreement will not happen to believe that at this stage is  silly.

1. Annex Ukraine

2. Allow it to Join NATO

Zelen made it clear he wants in and the German chancellor welcomed the idea, the clock is now ticking. There are no longer any other alternatives. It's come to war.

LOL

The Minsk agreement is happening. It's either that, or NATO to produce an official document disavowing ever extending membership to several specific countries including the Ukraine.

And the clock is ticking for both the Ukraine and for NATO to chose which one it will be.
Russia has left the situation open. At this point it can either keep pressuring, creating problems for Zelensky and patronizing the opposition in the Ukraine - or it can lay off for a while to focus on the Middle East or whatever other region.
Either way, Zelensky's position will continue to weaken domestically, as he keeps to the tactic of avoiding implementing the Minsk provisions.
He tries to move towards agreeing with it and the radicals will mobilize.
He tries to avoid it and people will grow uneasy. Everyone knows that Russia will come back again and use Kiev's aboyance of the treaty to again build up massively on the borders, while NATO in the country has already proved what it's actually worth.

As for the German chancellor - look, the German chancellor is welcome any idea he wants. He also insists on the implementation of Minsk. Which would exactly preclude the Ukraine from joining.