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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #55

    Arkanghelsk
    Arkanghelsk


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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:18 am

    Some people just don't understand the scale of this war

    They just watch Binkov or read Forbes and draw uneducated conclusions based on propaganda written by some history major like David Axe

    The Russian strategy from 2023 to now has been to attrite the Ukrainian army

    That has happened through a poorly coordinated counter offensive, and a poor defensive strategy of trying to hold on to every inch of land

    With such a strategy, Russia has been able to inflict huge casualties on the Ukro army, by using standoff munitions on an enemy that has little mobility and is static at the mercy of 1500kg and soon 3000kg glide bombs , not to mention the artillery superiority of Russia as well

    Not only that, but Russia has successful diminished Ukrainian air defenses to the point that Tornado, Iskander, KH101, Kalibr, LMUR, Kh35, Kh59 and more are flying around with impunity not even being shot down anymore

    And su34 is flying now at a high rate just fabbing the Frontline anywhere at tiny villages like Orlovka or Tonenke

    The point is, there is a reason for sudden panic of western leaders and extreme measures like terrorism

    There is no chance for Ukraine anymore,  they can't hold minor villages and their last lines of defense aren't flanked by major fortifications as Donbass was

    We talk about the slavyansk line, and some heights around Ugledar,  and Oskol reservoir

    In the south, Ukros are using the same strategy, of just throwing their reserves on counterattack to hold Russia back

    Russia is going to take Chasov Yar faster than Avdeyevka, and the trend will just repeat until after rasputitsa season

    America is abandoning Ukraine, Nuland was fired, and rogue SBU is now off the leash

    Meanwhile European leaders are watching this with fear,  because sugar daddy USA is leaving them too to focus on China

    But the Europeans are done for - adding Sweden and Finland has added a whopping 50k troops...

    The British themselves have less than 75k troops

    Grant Schapps didn't even visit Odessa, and Macron doesn't either out of pure fear

    Borrell himself talks about the endgame being the next couple of months

    Meanwhile Britain no longer sends storm shadows, challengers, or anything, and the other European chihuahuas also have nothing left to give

    Scholz and Macron are arguing publicly

    Tusk just had a Russian missile take a detour over Polish airspace

    And they have empty talks about 800,000 155mm shells being delivered

    Let's get real, Europe has nothing to deliver without the USA

    And the reality is setting in all sides

    This rogue SBU has only infuriated Russia and is bringing their own demise this summer

    The Europeans will not do a single shit to save Ukraine, only hastening the demise of the former Ukrainian state


    Last edited by Arkanghelsk on Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:55 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  GarryB Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:45 am

    The fat lady is singing and they thought they could pull a superplay in the last second of the game but the score is 200 to 10 and even if they did manage to score it is still a lost game.

    They thought if they could send in HATO troops to fill the role of rear area troops then those rear area troops could be sent to the front line.

    The irony is that those rear area troops likely fought very hard to get and keep the jobs they have and have no interest in going anywhere near the front line... they are likely taking bribes and making a very good income in their roles and being thrown into the furnace of the front line will burn all the money in their pockets.

    The new terrorism tactics will appeal to nazis, but most western citizens have experienced such mindless violence and I suspect most will be disgusted by this new tactic.. and also the fear that Putin might respond in kind will mean western security will have to be boosted too.

    It is an act of desperation and it will just make the conditions of Kievs surrender worse and the terms with the west worse for kiev and the west.

    Russia has been given more reason to increase ammo production and also more importantly to use more ammo to destroy the beast.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:04 am

    GarryB wrote:The fat lady is singing and they thought they could pull a superplay in the last second of the game but the score is 200 to 10 and even if they did manage to score it is still a lost game.

    They thought if they could send in HATO troops to fill the role of rear area troops then those rear area troops could be sent to the front line.


    What is the most cynical part of this to me is that I don't even think NATO is mentioning intervention with a real intention to do so

    But says it only to reassure Kiev and keep them fighting for as long as they can

    But IMO, NATO is doing another afghanistan

    Ruthlessly abandoning Ukraine to the fate of its own lunacy

    While the USA packs up and moves on to the next zone of "managed chaos" - Pacific theater

    The Ukrainian elite were to inexperienced to manage any of the processes it took on, and in the end waged a war of annihilation, and annihilating itself in the process

    Even ex- Polish general Rajmund Andrzejczak had admitted Ukraines losses are in the millions when you factor in the emigration of most of its productive population

    It is a tragedy with a scale unheard of in modern times with the exception of Gaza

    Although Ukraine is a case study on national suicide rather than genocide

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    dionis


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    Post  dionis Mon Mar 25, 2024 3:17 am

    sepheronx wrote:I admit I am wrong.

    But I find it also interesting though that 600K troops are just...sitting there doing nothing.  With that many forces against what Ukraine has, they could roll over remainder of Ukraine rather easily.  And only around 40K dead or injured, Russian forces are massive in the area.  What exactly are they waiting for? especially in Kharkov?

    Well Zelensky also said Ukraine has about 800K troops right now around the entire country, which is believable, given their non-stop mobilization.

    And I guess they are all on the main line of contact.

    I have a pretty hard time believing that even if they had 50,000 troops north of Kharkov, that they would let Ukraine over the border or let them keep hitting Belgorod.

    I wouldn't be surprised if there was like 2 brigades in Belarus and then 3 between Sumy and Kharkov.
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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:58 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    But the Europeans are done for - adding Sweden and Finland has added a whopping 50k troops...


    and 1600 km more border, plus can only be reinforced by air or sea... i.e not in a real war.  Russian special military operation in Ukraine #55 - Page 5 1f44d


    Last edited by mnztr on Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:53 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  mnztr Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:02 am

    JohninMK wrote:S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y
    @Sprinterfactory
    The Armed Forces of Ukraine are warning about the preparation of a Russian air strike group of 14 Tu-95MS strategic bombers, 12 Tu-22M3 long-range bombers and 12(!) MiG-31K for a powerful missile strike
    7:11 PM · Mar 24, 2024
    ·
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    What loadouts are the TU-95 carrying? Seems to me they are flying with 4 or so missiles, vs the 12 they can carry. I would love to see maybe 4 TU-95s attack with full load, just to demonstrate the sheer power of the system.

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Mon Mar 25, 2024 8:37 am

    START precise the number of missile carriers and their type.
    Tu-95M was made in two variants - MS6 and MS16.
    MS6 carried one internal revolver launcher for 6 Ch-55 missiles.
    MS16 can carry 16 pcs of cruise missiles, 6 in bay and 10 externally, in 2x3 and 4x1 configuration.
    Tu-160 carries 12 pcs on two revolver launchers.
    New modification of Tu-95MSM is being observed with 4x2 external configuration, which would suggest that new standard for modernized pieces is 14 missiles.
    Considering that Russia has about 80 strategic bombers at the moment, they can quite easily unleash a 1000-missile salvo in one flow.
    The biggest war since Korea is carried out by Russia as extended maneuvers. Nothing more.

    Edit : and in the heat of Krokus event, we have almost missed probably the biggest attempt to attack Crimea, carried with the help of dozens of drones, S-200 missiles, Neptunes, Storm Shadows, WD160 decoys, HARMS ...
    All they have left. Up to 15 Ukro planes involved.
    They have tried to hit two 775 ships.
    One was probably slightly damaged by missile debris, as in both cases those were probably shoot down.
    The only clear hit was at Black Sea Fleet command historical building, which is empty at the moment.

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:35 am

    The Ukrainian Armed Forces unofficially report the arrival of new Zircon missiles.

    Several missiles covered a distance of 580 km from Crimea to Kyiv in 3 minutes, which allows us to estimate the speed of the missiles as 11,600 km/h, Ukrainian public monitoring reports.


    t.me/ForeignAgentIntel

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:36 am

    Multiple hits across all Kiev.
    Explosions started just after sirens, which indicates hypersonic missiles in use - probably P-800.
    A wing of Mykhaila Boichuka St, 32 building was completely demolished.
    Formally it is an art institute, but there are different businesses and activities at the same address.
    Some rumors that civil defense was using it for operational headquater.
    Tons of fully equipped and armed military personnel clearly visible at the location.

    Two Patriot systems reportedly hit at Zhuliany airport.

    An interesting part comes from Ukrainian reports.
    Missiels were supposedly launched from Crimea and covered the >600 km distance in ... 3 min.

    Almost twelve thousand km/h ...

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    Post  Eugenio Argentina Mon Mar 25, 2024 11:46 am

    🇷🇺🇺🇦 BREAKING: Explosions Rock Kiev Two Minutes After Raid Alarms Sound

    Initial reports indicate that "Zircon" missiles may have been deployed.

    Targets reportedly included the Patriot systems at Zhuliany Airport, with unconfirmed reports suggesting that the building of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine was also hit.

    Developing...

    https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1772187779557994697

    Cool

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    Walther von Oldenburg
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    Post  Walther von Oldenburg Mon Mar 25, 2024 12:49 pm

    💥💥💥Kiev's Zhulyany airport has been cleared of two Patriot air defense systems

    From there, missiles often flew into the homes of peaceful Kiev citizens. Our Russian air force has corrected this misunderstanding. Don't thank us.

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    Post  Hole Mon Mar 25, 2024 12:58 pm

    That means those troops have been rotated through Ukraine
    Same happened in Syria. Nearly all russian pilots made a tour to get some combat experience.
    That doesn´t mean that Russia used 1.000+ aircraft in that country. 

    The biggest war since Korea is carried out by Russia as extended maneuvers.
    Otherwise they would have send only 3 or 4 planes for that strike.
    Combat experience for the flight and ground crews.

    which indicates hypersonic missiles in use - probably P-800.
    P-800 is just supersonic.

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    Post  ucmvulcan Mon Mar 25, 2024 1:53 pm

    As others have said, Russia has had 600,000 troops in the combat zone but they rotate them through. It gives the troops valuable experience in combat (and allows them to be more effective in training new troops) and also keeps them well rested. A parallel of the Russian Army was seen in the air war in WWII where Japan and Germany (at least until 1943 had the best pilots and planes). However, Germany and especially Japan had a major problem. Their best pilots flew until they died and while their initally waves of pilots were elite, they had a terrible track record of training replacements. The Americans? We had pilots who were good enough (not as elite as the Luftwaffe and IJNAF and IJAAF, but good enough to accomplish the mission and come home alive) and while the Germans and Japanese pilots flew until they died, The Americans flew until they did so many missions and then they would return to the states, instruct new pilots in their techniques and then over time they'd cycoe back into the theater.

    Russia's army is doing similar. They are learning how to fight and defeat NATO standard trained forces using NATO weapons. In a direct war with NATO, this will be invaluable experience. It also explains why Russia is minimizing the use of new technologies in this war (and has no problems using Iranian and North Korean weapons, some built on license). Russian troops are learning how to defeat NATO's state ofnthe art and is collecting all sorts of intelligence about these weapons, and they are minimizing NATO's ability to collect similar intel.

    Lastly, lets talk about logistics. Artillery may be the king of battle, but logistics is the tyrant. As a modern combat force, Russia has to have a very large logistics tail. Food, fuel, hospitals, recovery and repair, truck to get supplies to the front and the wounded troops and damaged equipment back to the rear. So if Russia has 600,000 troops in theater, its possible, that's probably an effective combat force of only about 150,000 as you need at least 4 or 5 support personnel for every soldier you have in combat. Most conscript forces are probably not dumped at the front without training like the western corporate state controlled press likes to say. These are probably troops mainly doing reservist type work freeijg up more treops for the front. If we are going to see a drive on the Dniepr, Putin will need to call up about 3 or 4 times as many troops. So I think the plan is still to liberate Kherson, Zaprozhiye, Donetsk, and Lugansk completely and then dig new defense lines and let the meat come to Russia. As combat has shown Ukraine doesn't have all that much in terms of logistics. They are the ones sending meat in full frontal assault human wave assaults and getting mowed down.

    Will Putin do a call up and finish the war? He might but we are not yet there. Part of the reason however, is he is still getting enough troops experience to train that mucy larger force.

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    Post  ALAMO Mon Mar 25, 2024 2:45 pm

    It looks like script has been reloaded too early Laughing

    Kyiv Post wrote less than an hour after attack started, that it was targeting SBU high-rank officials.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Mar 25, 2024 3:25 pm

    ALAMO wrote:It looks like script has been reloaded too early Laughing

    Kyiv Post wrote less than an hour after attack started, that it was targeting SBU high-rank officials.

    Wonder if it will extend from SBU places of work to their expensive houses.

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    Post  Hole Mon Mar 25, 2024 4:27 pm

    Putin will need to call up about 3 or 4 times as many troops. 
    The number of troops depends on the number of enemy fighters.
    There is no need for extra troops if your opponent has barely any fighters left over.

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    Post  d_taddei2 Mon Mar 25, 2024 5:58 pm

    The British army use to work on the ratio of 3 to 1 so for example if we were facing a an enemy platoon they would send a company into to attack it. Obviously we never had such things as drones back then which is definitely a useful tool.

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:28 pm

    Last night Russia supposedly raised a huge bunch of bombers (well, ALCM carriers to be precise, as that's what Tu-95 and 160 are these days), but ultimately didn't launch anything.

    Today came a surprise attack with hypersonics, out of the blue. Then it was quiet for a while.

    Now it seems like a big strike is ongoing again though.

    A particular strategy seems quite evident here. Raise the alarm first, observe what happens, then...





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    Post  ALAMO Mon Mar 25, 2024 6:36 pm

    They have used this method multiple times.
    Cheap Gerans are unleashed on targets, and Uko choice is to pass them all through or try to do anything.
    And there are Iskanders and Tsirkons waiting for revealed emissions ...

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:09 pm

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/975289-amp.html

    Pavliuk: Russia building up group of 100,000 troops, might conduct summer offensive

    There is a possibility that Russia would build up a certain number of forces by the beginning of summer to launch an offensive in one of the axes, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk has said.

    "We do not fully know Russia's plans. We only know the data they have, what they are creating. They are building up a group of more than 100,000 troops. It won't necessarily be an offensive. Perhaps they will replenish their units that are losing combat effectiveness. But there is a possibility that by the beginning of summer they may have certain forces to carry out offensive operations in one of the axes," he said on the national telethon Friday.

    According to Pavliuk, "for now these are the worst forecasts that such an offensive will be held."

    "I think we will do everything to cause maximum losses to the enemy, that is what we are doing now, so that all their resources that they form are involved in the battle by this time. But we are preparing for possible different developments of the situation," the general said.

    For the Binkov analysts like Arrow

    Read it and weep

    And BTW, it's a lot more than 100,000 troops - that's all UA and western intelligence want to say

    But the truth is a lot scarier than that

    Macron wouldn't be shitting his pants over 100k troops

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:17 pm

    in Lvov there were 3 waves of attack on airport according to TG (Gonzo? Cassad?) First gerans and kh-555/101 . Then some hit some were destroyed then Kinzahl (SBU/Nato personnel) then some time some rescue teams start evec and helping then again kiznahl in the same place...

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    Post  ALAMO Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:24 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    Macron wouldn't be shitting his pants over 100k troops

    Rusian land forces numbers don't add up for a very long time.
    And this gap is only getting higher and higher.
    At the moment, there is a serious concern where are about half a mln men, heading steadily north of it.

    There is a dumb answer and a smart answer.
    The other is, they rotate.
    Just take a look where is the Chechen Rosgvardia.
    All over the place, including Belgorod region.

    Which is the most striking difference between Russkie and Ukrs.
    The others don't have this privilege, for a very long time.
    They don't have time for training, that is why a cannon fodder is being poured into cattle and melts faster than they can restock the meat.
    They really need 30-40k men a month, only to keep the numbers.
    This is a rate of the freshly recruited rookies being burnt out.
    And the number overall has nothing to do with Cocainsky's bullshit about a "million-strong army".
    I can bet a golden rubel to a nut, that the overall number is <600k including all the structures.
    There is only one reason why Russkie are proceeding so slow, and it is a politically motivated neglect for tricolor-covered coffins.
    They will just keep this meat grinder running, as long as needed.

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    Post  GunshipDemocracy Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:34 pm

    in short the new record in distance to take down Ukros...



    В кадре кстати Orsis-СТ20 под калибр .375 CheyTac, с такой же винтовки побили рекорд Лобаевского "Сумрака" и поразили цель на дистанции в 5117м.

    Below pic os Orsis ST-20

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #55 - Page 5 Kakbitsvintovkoi1

    In the frame, by the way, Orsis-ST20 for .375 CheyTac caliber, with the same rifle they broke the record of Lobaevsky’s “Twilight” and hit the target at a distance of 5117m.

    https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/154457

    respekt respekt respekt


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #55 - Page 5 ORSIS-ST20-5km








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    Post  JohninMK Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:35 pm

    Strikes could be no coincidence

    Masno
    @NovichokRossiya

    Direct information from my sources on the ground in Kiev:

    Expect heavy losses for the SBU today. It was some sort of "SBU day", like a celebration of some sorts, all the SBU hierarchy was in the offices today.

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    Post  JohninMK Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:46 pm

    Looks like the disruption at the Dnepro HPP dam is not just limited to power creation. The railway has gone too

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