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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53

    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Fri Feb 02, 2024 5:45 pm

    Russia estimates recent Ukrainian troop losses

    Kiev lost 23,000 troops and 3,000 pieces of military equipment last month, Moscow’s defense minister has said

    Ukraine lost more than 23,000 troops in January, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has said, claiming that Kiev had to deploy reserves to prevent a frontline collapse. In December, the minister revealed estimates that Ukrainian casualties since the start of the conflict with Russia in February 2022 had reached 383,000.

    Speaking to top Russian military commanders on Friday, Shoigu stated that after the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive – which began in early June but fizzled out in the autumn without any substantial gains – Moscow’s forces now “hold the strategic initiative along the entire line of contact.”

    According to the minister, Russian troops have also been advancing and improving their positions, capturing several settlements in the regions of Donetsk and Kharkov.

    Faced with these substantial losses, and “to prevent the collapse of the defense, the Ukrainian leadership is throwing its remaining reserves into battle and hastily carrying out the next waves of forced mobilization,” the minister said.

    Shoigu also said Moscow continues to launch high-precision strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure, including production and repair facilities, airfields, field depots, and bases housing Kiev’s troops and foreign mercenaries.

    Ukraine announced a general mobilization shortly after the start of the conflict, although the draft campaign has been marred by corruption and draft dodging. Officials in Kiev have been mulling a new mobilization bill to replenish battlefield losses since December, but it has yet to be passed.


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 6 Scree175

    Russia lost 600 troops in the entire period of January

    23,000 vs 600

    And you are talking about stalemate?

    Notice that Shoigu mentions "operational initiative"

    What it means, is that Russia holds advantages in every category at the operational level

    So much so that it allows for some tactical actions along the frontline

    But this does not mean that the shift to offensive operations has begun,

    I want to reiterate, guys we have not yet seen the army begin the offense

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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Fri Feb 02, 2024 6:10 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Russia estimates recent Ukrainian troop losses

    Kiev lost 23,000 troops and 3,000 pieces of military equipment last month, Moscow’s defense minister has said

    Ukraine lost more than 23,000 troops in January, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has said, claiming that Kiev had to deploy reserves to prevent a frontline collapse. In December, the minister revealed estimates that Ukrainian casualties since the start of the conflict with Russia in February 2022 had reached 383,000.

    Speaking to top Russian military commanders on Friday, Shoigu stated that after the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive – which began in early June but fizzled out in the autumn without any substantial gains – Moscow’s forces now “hold the strategic initiative along the entire line of contact.”

    According to the minister, Russian troops have also been advancing and improving their positions, capturing several settlements in the regions of Donetsk and Kharkov.

    Faced with these substantial losses, and “to prevent the collapse of the defense, the Ukrainian leadership is throwing its remaining reserves into battle and hastily carrying out the next waves of forced mobilization,” the minister said.

    Shoigu also said Moscow continues to launch high-precision strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure, including production and repair facilities, airfields, field depots, and bases housing Kiev’s troops and foreign mercenaries.

    Ukraine announced a general mobilization shortly after the start of the conflict, although the draft campaign has been marred by corruption and draft dodging. Officials in Kiev have been mulling a new mobilization bill to replenish battlefield losses since December, but it has yet to be passed.


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 6 Scree175

    Russia lost 600 troops in the entire period of January

    23,000 vs 600

    And you are talking about stalemate?

    Notice that Shoigu mentions "operational initiative"

    What it means, is that Russia holds advantages in every category at the operational level

    So much so that it allows for some tactical actions along the frontline

    But this does not mean that the shift to offensive operations has begun,

    I want to reiterate, guys we have not yet seen the army begin the offense

    38.3: 1 wow!! THat is approaching a turkey shoot.

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    Post  mnztr Fri Feb 02, 2024 6:18 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    mnztr wrote:

    With the evolution of drone tech, Crimea and Belgrod will never be out of range as long as there is a Ukraine. Drones will only become more capable. , you can easily have a sea drone that launches a flying drone. A flying drone that land and uses track get to its target ...etc etc,

    The general staff and Putin disagree with you

    He has already announced the creation of the DMZ

    You really believe there is a stalemate? Mobile defense operations with the odd DRG raid do not constitute an offensive posture or operations

    The Russian army is in a defensive posture throughout the frontline - meaning 0 offensive moves have been attempted

    The capture of these villages and towns, and the assault of Avdeevka, or position warfare around Bakhmut and Sinkovka/Kupyansk, and even the storming of Rabotino are not at all offensive operations

    This is where Arrow, Mnztr,  and most observers confuse things and are not versed in operational level warfare and buy into the western narrative of a "stalemate"

    Offensive operations are more similar to Gostomel raids, operations at Kharkov, and the crossing of the Dnieper at Kherson into Krivoy Rog

    These raids are perfectly available to be conducted- actually when we observe Gostomel note that Russia conducted it with less than 200,000 men throughout Ukraine

    The achievements were the encirclement of Kharkov and Kiev and Nikolayev

    Right now the Russian army has over 500,000 troops around the same area, or more than double the numbers since 24/02/22

    Do you understand what Putin is saying when he mentions a DMZ?

    He is referring to the resumption of large scale offensive and maneuver war

    You can dig your head in the sand, but as Naryshkin and Putin already stated

    The fate of Ukraine will be very sad... you can choose whatever you want to believe

    For example Budanov claims that the Russian offensive will fizzle out in spring

    If this is what they believe, then I am inclined to believe what Naryshkin is saying

    I didn't say anything about offensives, just that drones will be able to reach any distance as long as there is a state of war and Ukraine exists. Buffer zone will be useful to prevent attacks by heavy weapons, but drones will get heavier. It won't be long before you will be able to send a swarm of 10 drones that can each deliver a blow equal to a 152mm round.
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Fri Feb 02, 2024 6:30 pm

    mnztr wrote:

    I didn't say anything about offensives, just that drones will be able to reach any distance as long as there is a state of war and Ukraine exists. Buffer zone will be useful to prevent attacks by heavy weapons, but drones will get heavier. It won't be long before you will be able to send a swarm of 10 drones that can each deliver a blow equal to a 152mm round.

    The process is quite predictable

    After several new regions are captured, a referendum will be held and they will be adjoined to Russia

    PVO air defenses will move forward creating an expansion of the IADS

    Ground forces will also be positioned along a new contact line, with new defensive fortifications and engineering obstacles created

    SMERSH units will filter out the rear areas of the Russian army, and look for sabotage, terror cells, and other such units

    Once it is cleared of saboteurs, construction companies can begin works to restore those areas

    After that , Putin will give Kiev another chance to save itself from further losses of territory - maybe for another year

    If Ukraine continues to persist in strikes, then Russia will just keep going

    The main goal is to push back launch positions of HIMARS, GLSDB, Storm Shadow, Scalp, Patriot, and other such weapon systems

    At those ranges none of those weapons will be able to reach Belgorod, Donbass, Bryansk and so on

    I am Inclined to think that the main direction of the offensive will be to drive onto the northern Ukrainian territories

    I don't think the Russian army will cross the Dnieper at this time, as the main goal is to prevent further shelling of civilian areas, and prevent western SAMS from shooting down aircraft over Russian territory

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:54 pm

    Boris Rozhin and Colonel Cassad drops this bomb:

    BREAKTHROUGH ON ALL FRONTS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE

    When the General Staff have been discussing with President Vladimir Putin the timing of the Russian offensive to force the Kiev regime into capitulation, it has been agreed, understood, and repeated that the strategic reserves of the Ukrainian forces should be destroyed first, together with the supply lines for the weapons and ammunition crossing the border from the US and the NATO allies.

    This process, they also agreed, should take as long as required with least casualties on the Russian side, as determined by military intelligence. Also agreed and pre-conditional, there should be no repeat of the political intelligence failures of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) which precipitated the failed special forces operation known as the Battle of Antonov (Hostomel) Airport from February 24 to April 2, 2022.  

    Taking account of the mistakes made then by the SVR director, Sergei Naryshkin, and the subsequent mistakes of military officers around Yevgeny Prigozhin, the General Staff has also accepted that their tactical operations must run least risk of Russian casualties through March 17, the final day of the presidential election.

    “the Russian breakthrough is beginning to happen now. It’s being coordinated with strikes and raids along the northern border. The commitment of the ‘crack’ Ukrainian brigades at the expense of other sectors shows how desperate [General Valery] Zaluzhny is to plug the holes. He knows that the target is the isolation of Kharkov, the establishment of a demilitarized ‘buffer zone’, as well as the development of a situation whereby all Ukrainian forces east of the Dnieper are threatened with being cut off… and he’s quickly running out of ammunition, not to mention cannon fodder.”

    “By the end of the winter,” the source has added overnight, “the Ukrainians will barely be able to move along the roads they use to feed the front due to the Russian drone, missile, conventional air, and artillery strikes. Once they can no longer plug the gaps with mechanized units acting as fire-fighting brigades, it’s just a matter of time before the big breakthroughs and encirclements begin. At the current burn rate of Ukrainian forces, I imagine we’ll start seeing Russian tanks with fuel tanks fitted for extended range appearing and Russian airborne troops making air assaults in the Ukrainian rear within weeks.”

    In yesterday’s edition of the Moscow security analysis platform Vzglyad, Yevgeny Krutikov, a leading Russian military analyst with GRU service himself and GRU sources for his reporting since, published a report entitled “What does the offensive of Russian troops in the Kharkov region mean?” “Russia is creating a new strategic situation in the Kharkov region,” Krutikov concluded,    “threatening to dismember the Ukrainian defence up to the Donetsk agglomeration.” A verbatim English translation of this piece follows.

    “The settlement of Tabayevka in the Kharkov region has been liberated,” the Russian Defense Ministry says. We are not just facing the capture of a village: Russian troops are now hacking into the contact lines, which have not budged for a year. Russia is creating a new strategic situation in the Kharkov region, threatening to dismember the Ukrainian defence up to the Donetsk agglomeration.

    First, Krakhmalnoye, then Tabayevka – Russian troops have advanced in the Svatovo direction (Kharkov region), pushing the enemy to a new line of defence (to the village of Peschanoye). Slightly to the north, already close to Kupyansk, the enemy’s positions are also gradually moving to the west and southwest.

    Along the way, forests are being cleared, which the VSU [Ukrainian Armed Forces] is turning into fortified areas, even giving them names (“Alligator” and “Woodpecker”). The enemy is losing the old lines of trenches, the first line of contact has been destroyed. Something similar is happening directly near Kupyansk, but there the advanced fortified lines in Sinkovka are being held still by the VSU, though the positions on the flanks have gradually begun to sink.

    At first glance, we are looking at isolated episodes of positional warfare, since the big, iconic and recognizable geographical names do not appear in the information releases.  But this is not quite true.

    Firstly, even in this scenario as published so far,  strategic threats arise for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, in the possible drive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the Oskol River which has far-reaching prospects. Notwithstanding, it is still impossible to predict when this will become possible in practice.

    Secondly, the enemy has been demonstrating a systemic defence crisis in the Kupyansk direction during the past week. The defence of Kupyansk has been under construction by the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the spring of last year, when the decision was made in Kiev on a ‘counteroffensive’ in the southern direction. New brigades with western armoured vehicles were sent to the southern section of the contact line, and Kupyansk and the area around it were designated for defence with the rest of their forces.

    In Kiev, they were convinced that Russian troops were forming an offensive group in the Kupyansk direction, and so the VSU began to wait there for a frontal assault. However, as a result, the Russian Army did not undertake anything of the kind in this area. Instead, the Ukrainian units were gradually ground down by the Russian army in positional battles, while the Kupyansk group of the VSU had to be replenished with whatever troops were left.

    Now Ukrainian sources are complaining  that as a consequence, a combination of lines has formed in the sinkhole areas (that’s the same Krakhmalnoye and Tabayevka). Into these lines the VSU has herded separate battalions from different units, with the result that unified management and command have been lost, and the performance quality of the troops has left much to be desired.

    As a result, the VSU is considering the possibility of transferring the remnants of those forces which participated in the failed ‘counteroffensive”’ to Kupyansk from the southern direction. Before that, they had been sent in great haste sent to Avdeyevka.

    But this is already a systemic problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since there is trouble in the southern sector. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have gradually regained some of the positions which were left during the so-called counteroffensive, and these forces continue to move forward. We are even talking about possible threats to Orekhov, a rearguard city for the VSU, from which all the communications and command of the ‘counteroffensive’ had been carried out.

    Behind the defensive fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an open field for tens of kilometres opens up on a whole group of sites. Kiev’s military reserves are gradually being squandered, and there is practically no human materiel left to plug the holes. Related to these problems there are the panic campaigns in Kiev about total mobilization.

    There is another problem: the attrition of officers. Western military personnel cannot replace this crucial resource —  they can only be used to service technically complicated weapons systems such as air defence or long-range artillery. Along the line of contact, foreign officers are more likely to interfere due to their ignorance of the language and misunderstanding of the mentality of the [Ukrainian] subordinates.

    There are other factors weakening the Ukrainian defence, but they are not directly related to military operations. For example, the Western sponsors are really concerned about the corruption of the Ukrainian leadership. The inspections and audits which are taking place in Kiev on this issue right now are preventing Ukraine from building new defensive lines swiftly enough.

    Another non-military factor: political discord among the various factions of the Ukrainian authorities. The premonition of defeat is triggering a drop in morale, not only in the troops, but also in the elites.

    All this in general creates a strategic opportunity for Russia to seriously change the situation on the line of contact.

    Partial tactical successes must at some point turn into a major breakthrough in the enemy’s defence. Moreover, we are talking about such a breakthrough that will not stop in just two or three days at the next defensive line, but will lead inevitably, precisely,  to the collapse of the front. This is exactly what the efforts of the Russian Armed Forces are now aimed at, probing for the weaknesses in Ukrainian defensive positions.

    The liberation of Tabayevka is an example of just such an approach. Sooner or later, the VSU will not have time to create a new defensive line behind a particular settlement. And then we will see how the special operation will break the current positional deadlock.

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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:35 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    mnztr wrote:

    I didn't say anything about offensives, just that drones will be able to reach any distance as long as there is a state of war and Ukraine exists. Buffer zone will be useful to prevent attacks by heavy weapons, but drones will get heavier. It won't be long before you will be able to send a swarm of 10 drones that can each deliver a blow equal to a 152mm round.

    The process is quite predictable

    After several new regions are captured, a referendum will be held and they will be adjoined to Russia

    PVO air defenses will move forward creating an expansion of the IADS

    Ground forces will also be positioned along a new contact line, with new defensive fortifications and engineering obstacles created

    SMERSH units will filter out the rear areas of the Russian army, and look for sabotage, terror cells, and other such units

    Once it is cleared of saboteurs, construction companies can begin works to restore those areas

    After that , Putin will give Kiev another chance to save itself from further losses of territory - maybe for another year

    If Ukraine continues to persist in strikes, then Russia will just keep going

    The main goal is to push back launch positions of HIMARS, GLSDB, Storm Shadow,  Scalp, Patriot, and other such weapon systems

    At those ranges none of those weapons will be able to reach Belgorod, Donbass, Bryansk and so on

    I am Inclined to think that the main direction of the offensive will be to drive onto the northern Ukrainian territories

    I don't think the Russian army will cross the Dnieper at this time, as the main goal is to prevent further shelling of civilian areas, and prevent western SAMS from shooting down aircraft over Russian territory


    I think you miss the pattern of escalation. The US will send kits for Tomahawk like missiles eventually and they will be "made in Ukraine" that is coming as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow. So Russia needs to terminate this war and drive Ukraine to captulation ASAP. I don't get why they cannot just focus on stopping petroleum. Even if you get to 90% success the AFU will be massively weakened.
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    Post  Isos Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:41 pm

    Seems like many survived the ship attack. At least a good news.

    Those ships should be equiped with Active Protection System like a big afghanit to shot explosives at those naval drones to make them explode away of the ship.

    The ak-630 with a good thermal optical guidance would ve great too.


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    Post  TMA1 Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:48 pm

    They essentially gave reason why. They are waiting for elections as a sanction of the people to finish the war.

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    Post  Isos Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:15 pm

    mnztr wrote:

    I think you miss the pattern of escalation. The US will send kits for Tomahawk like missiles eventually and they will be "made in Ukraine" that is coming as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow. So Russia needs to terminate this war and drive Ukraine to captulation ASAP. I don't get why they cannot just focus on stopping petroleum. Even if you get to 90% success the AFU will be massively weakened.

    Quite hard but doable. First hit the big reserve and then the pumps in eastern ukraine.

    The military will be reloaded by trucks but the civilians will be impacted a lot.

    Second valuable target is electricity production. A bit radical but powerful.

    Last would be trains. According to wiki they have 1600 electrical loco and 300 diesel. Destroy the diesel ones and with electricity prod destroyed the 1600 others will be useless.

    Geran 2 is enough to destroy any of those targets.

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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:33 pm


    I didn't expect WSJ audience in the comment section to be so coherent and realistic, good on them:



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    Post  Hole Fri Feb 02, 2024 9:50 pm

    Yes the new Russian territories will be exposed to missiles and rockets, but it is the consequence of living close to the border
    The DMZ will expand gradually all the way to the Polish and Romanian borders.

    The US will send kits for Tomahawk like missiles eventually
    So what?
    See point above.
    If NATO dares it can launch "ukrainian" cruise missiles from Poland or Romania. Or Finland.


    They are waiting for elections as a sanction of the people to finish the war.
    I don´t know. The elections are such a big event. Possible that the Russians use it as a distraction
    and the big thing starts a few days earlier.

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    Post  mnztr Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:36 pm

    Isos wrote:
    mnztr wrote:

    I think you miss the pattern of escalation. The US will send kits for Tomahawk like missiles eventually and they will be "made in Ukraine" that is coming as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow. So Russia needs to terminate this war and drive Ukraine to captulation ASAP. I don't get why they cannot just focus on stopping petroleum. Even if you get to 90% success the AFU will be massively weakened.

    Quite hard but doable. First hit the big reserve and then the pumps in eastern ukraine.

    The military will be reloaded by trucks but the civilians will be impacted a lot.

    Second valuable target is electricity production. A bit radical but powerful.

    Last would be trains. According to wiki they have 1600 electrical loco and 300 diesel. Destroy the diesel ones and with electricity prod destroyed the 1600 others will be useless.

    Geran 2 is enough to destroy any of those targets.

    But they even allowed the refinaaries to start. How hard is it to dedicate one Geran every 2 weeks to each refinary.

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    Post  mnztr Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:38 pm

    Hole wrote:
    Yes the new Russian territories will be exposed to missiles and rockets, but it is the consequence of living close to the border
    The DMZ will expand gradually all the way to the Polish and Romanian borders.

    The US will send kits for Tomahawk like missiles eventually
    So what?
    See point above.
    If NATO dares it can launch "ukrainian" cruise missiles from Poland or Romania. Or Finland.


    They are waiting for elections as a sanction of the people to finish the war.
    I don´t know. The elections are such a big event. Possible that the Russians use it as a distraction
    and the big thing starts a few days earlier.

    Launching missiles from NATO nations will result in masssive retaliation. Maybe Putin is waiting for the US election as well. So he can shit on Bidens campaign
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Fri Feb 02, 2024 11:41 pm

    mnztr wrote:

    Launching missiles from NATO nations will result in masssive retaliation. Maybe Putin is waiting for  the US election as well. So he can shit on Bidens campaign

    Offensive operations cause casualties

    Casualties cause public discontent

    Public discontent can be harnessed without the support of oligarchs

    Arkady Volozh for example was cut out of the Yandex sale

    Oleg Tinkov renounced his citizenship and ran to the UK where they lifted sanctions on him

    There are disgruntled oligarchs who can cause serious harm - see Prigozhin

    So Putin can't afford these issues right now, everything must be carefully resolved so that when offensive operations begin, the economy can resist the west stealing those 300 billion euros and dollars which the oligarchs parked in Europe and US

    The good thing is, once this money is stolen, the west will lose the oligarchs forever

    They will flood into Russia with their grotesque billions, and invest into the domestic economy

    In exchange, Putin will give them low tax rates, and hand over the shares of nationalized western business for them to gain profits, and reinvest them into the economy

    The final touches are being worked on

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 6 Webpc-13

    The Novo Ogaryovo meeting went well, and most of the oligarchs are happy with the arrangements they made with Putin

    They will remain the economic managers of Russia, but they will invest in the country and help raise it higher

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Feb 03, 2024 2:53 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 6 Img_2337

    It seems the dachas have been captured

    Ukrainians are forced to retreat from the northern part of the reservoir

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 6 Img_2338

    Avdeevka. Start.
    Dill, like a sentence - special forces are already in the city

    Short front-line report on February 2, 2024 from journalist Marat Khairullin

    Dear friends, today is a significant day, or rather it was yesterday - February 1 can officially be called the beginning of urban fighting. Yesterday and today, fighters of the 114th and 30th brigades of the Russian Armed Forces bypassed the Avdeevsky Quarry (Blue Lakes) position on both sides and officially entered the city limits of Avdeevka from the north along Zheleznodorozhny Lane and Frunze Street. And now they are gaining a foothold in the area of ​​Sapronov Street.
    Special operations forces of the 115th brigade of the Russian Guard also entered the city. And, according to unofficial data, active traffic continues towards Donetskaya Street during these hours. If the dynamics continue, then by tomorrow morning we can expect our guys to consolidate at this most important milestone

    It also seems now from the south, guys are pushing on the air defense zone, cheburashka, and Spartak

    Lot of movement in Avdeevka

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    Post  GarryB Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:39 am

    Only need fast attack Boats for shallow water . These can intercept drones , avoid drones by speed alone , avoid mostly being hit by missiles by hiding at Port , under canopy . Or while moving Zig Zag . Go up Estuary . Land on beaches to intercept troop concentrations of inspect " Grain, " cargo ships .......And their loss is less expensive with only two crew each , most times . They can be made by Russia and be armoured too .

    The Ukrainian navy had fast attack boats too and they got obliterated very very quickly... the reason they use drones and cruise missiles is because they have nothing left and 95% of the cruise missiles and drones are destroyed before they do any damage at all.

    The Black Sea Navy has had its hands tied for the last two years but has still contributed to a lot of the targets in the Ukraine that were destroyed by cruise missile and anti ship missiles.

    If you created a data sheet of all the targets their missiles have hit and compare it to the assets they lost... with only the Moskva standing out as a cruise missile launching vessel then their kill loss ratio is actually even better than 10 to 1.

    With the evolution of drone tech, Crimea and Belgrod will never be out of range as long as there is a Ukraine. Drones will only become more capable. , you can easily have a sea drone that launches a flying drone. A flying drone that land and uses track get to its target ...etc etc,

    That is true, but any attacks from the west can be identified and any violation of the peace agreement moving forward can be punish by immediate missile strikes... perhaps economic targets could be focussed on... you launch a drone and kill some of our civilians and we will destroy your electricity generation capacity, or your gas storage containers...

    Or we will blow up critical bridges and road ways or food storage buildings or major rail yards... or we will use our own drones to destroy every truck and train you own.

    Yes the new Russian territories will be exposed to missiles and rockets, but it is the consequence of living close to the border

    The new territories he is talking about is a buffer zone that wont be Russian... it will just be cleared of the Orc military forces and left as a buffer zone.

    Of course the Orcs will continue to try to infiltrate this zone to launch attacks on Russian areas which will result in Russian strikes in the buffer zone, which will likely lead to the locals having a referendum and asking to join the Russian Federation, which will move Russian military forces forward and create the requirement for a new buffer zone to be extended further into Orc territory.... and more referendums... till they reach HATO country or hostile country, in which case they don't need to be so careful about what they hit because the local population is as hostile as the orcs fighting Russia from there... but the Orc military will have collapsed well before then.

    These raids are perfectly available to be conducted- actually when we observe Gostomel note that Russia conducted it with less than 200,000 men throughout Ukraine

    The achievements were the encirclement of Kharkov and Kiev and Nikolayev

    Right now the Russian army has over 500,000 troops around the same area, or more than double the numbers since 24/02/22

    Not only is the Russian force bigger, but the Orc force is smaller and less trained and equipped and running out of ammo... and the AD is pitiful.


    38.3: 1 wow!! THat is approaching a turkey shoot.

    Yes, but they are silly to use these tactics because everyone knows you win by killing the enemy and these tactics are evidence of a stalemate... the west tells you that so it must be true.

    It is not a stalemate it is a tactic to maximise enemy losses and minimise your own so as not to damage your home economy, and to really stretch your enemy.


    I didn't say anything about offensives, just that drones will be able to reach any distance as long as there is a state of war and Ukraine exists.

    Russian drones seem to be more effective and they are deploying defences and jammers and other systems to deal with enemy drones better than the Orcs are.

    I rather suspect the Orcs are getting drones from each of their HATO partners and are finding they are not compatible and that US jammers jam french drones and french jammers jam US drones etc etc... and no two drones use standard parts... even use different sized screws and bolts... and different charge cables.

    It won't be long before you will be able to send a swarm of 10 drones that can each deliver a blow equal to a 152mm round.

    And if they attack, then Russia can respond with actual missiles that can cross the buffer zone and destroy entire buildings in Orc land and kill lots of people.

    Once they have pushed them back it might be decided that the leadership of Kiev cannot be reasoned with so eliminating them might become the preferred option... and roll the dice to see who they come up with to replace them.

    A change you don't like is solved with another missile strike.

    I think you miss the pattern of escalation. The US will send kits for Tomahawk like missiles eventually and they will be "made in Ukraine" that is coming as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow.

    Even if they do Tomahawks are crap and would only be effective against unprotected civilian targets.

    There is nothing the US can send that will help Kiev win... even if they sent tactical nukes that would just result in the death of the Ukrainian government in Kiev and probably nuclear strikes in Lvov and other places Russia does not care about.

    So Russia needs to terminate this war and drive Ukraine to captulation ASAP. I don't get why they cannot just focus on stopping petroleum. Even if you get to 90% success the AFU will be massively weakened.

    You are not getting it. The longer this conflict continues the more destroyed the Ukraine will be... and I am talking about western backed nazi Ukraine, enemy of Russia.

    The more Ukraine is destroyed the less of a threat and a problem it will be in the future.

    The longer this conflict goes on the more damaged Kievs regime and the US regime and the German and UK and French and Polish regimes will be... the more money they will throw into this money pit the more of their own weapons they will throw away... the less of a threat they all become to Russia the country and Russia the people, who, at the end of this conflict are going to grow and develop by trading with the rest of the world and let the west stew in its own juices in the bed it has made for itself.

    Going on the offensive to finish this conflict quick would enable the EU and US to claim the Russians are attacking... Kiev needs emergency help now and they will send money and equipment, whereas now they claim it is a stalemate so lack of money and weapons and ammo is no problem for the west... they are only fooling themselves of course but it is useful for Russia.

    Just like it is useful for Russia that Ukrainians in Ukraine don't realise how bad they are losing and how many men they have lost.

    Also, the Ukrainans don't really have much choice because they don't control Zelensky... hitting petroleum centres and capacity doesn't matter to the US... the more damage to the EU with energy supplies the more the US will blame Putin for all of the EUs problems. That is why they blew up the NS pipes because they knew Germany would pussy out if things got hard and seek concessions with Russia to get gas flowing.

    The best place to hit Ukraine would be to powder down a lot of DU and spray it on their grain crops and their black soil and then wait a few months for the crops to be collected and shipped and then intercept it and show the world that western use of DU ammo has destroyed the valuable black soils of Ukraine so all those US companies making money shipping food supplies will go bust and the US will suddenly lose interest in the country because it is not worth anything to them any more.

    I would add a drone campaign to take out trucks of all types and their economy would grind to a halt...

    Hit the truck cabin and train locomotives rather than the contents in the back because they wont be able to replace them.

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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 6 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53

    Post  ALAMO Sat Feb 03, 2024 8:20 am

    JohninMK wrote:Iskander strike

    More likely, Tornado-S sniper

    mnztr wrote:

    38.3: 1 wow!! THat is approaching a turkey shoot.

    Shoigu addressed combined KIA/WIA number, so don't get to excited.
    It is still only 10+:1

    BTW, in our shitstream there is a "great story" emerging, how Poseidon "just flew there" and "a corvette sunk".
    Me thinks we are witnessing one more case when they have used P-8 for targeting/retranslation for those drones, just as they have tried a while ago in Syria with flying ones.
    Maybe the time is ripe enough to have some accidental collision of P-8 with some drone of unknown origin.

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    Post  GarryB Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:18 am

    I think Russia needs to set up and support a group of Ukrainian separatists... Ukrainians that don't want to joint the RF, but equally don't want to join HATO or the EU and don't like what Kiev has done to their country over the last 10 years or so.

    The logic is that the west can supply not just weapons and ammo and money to Kiev, but when Kiev uses them for terrorist attacks on civilian targets the west can claim they are not in control and while it is their long range weapons and likely their planning and their recon assets that found the gap in the air defences it is ultimately up to Kiev to use all this as it wishes.

    Basically HATO terrorism via a Kiev nazi proxy so the west can't be directly held accountable.

    For Russia to essentially do the same how about some ethnically Ukrainian military who want revenge on the west for pushing their country into war with Russia who was not the hostile neighbour the west claims it was... give them MiG-29SMTs with simple AAMs like R-27ET and R-27ER and R-73s and let them shoot down any recon platform operating over the Black Sea... manned or unmanned... It is not Russia that shot down all those US UAVs... they were Ukrainian nationalists who are fighting against the nazification of Ukraine and of HATO.

    I wouldn't use them to hit civilian targets in Ukraine but because of the precedent set by HATO, Russia can plan their missions and arm them and train them and give them all the support they need to get the job done...

    If they are dead serious you could mount a 1,500kg bomb down its centreline and if the aircraft gets shot down it could detonate the bomb so nothing gets captured that can be useful for the orcs.

    Of course they could just as easily say they have handed over 5,000 SS-N-2 Styx anti ship missiles modified to fly to a coordinate with a 600kg+ HE warhead... replace the rocket motor with a turbofan engine that gives it similar speed but massively increases the range (being more fuel efficient than a rocket motor).

    You could line up hundreds and fire them all off at targets all at once.... if some get shot down... who cares... they are cheap and they likely have more.
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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 6 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53

    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Feb 03, 2024 2:08 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 6 Scree176

    It seems Russia already had captured 4 project 1241 ships from Ukraine when they captured Crimea

    These ships are old, but it just shows that despite losing Ivanovets, Russia has at least 2 Ukrainian ships of this class serving in the border guard , while 2 others are hulked as some kind of barracks

    Anyway these old ships need to be replaced by karakurt
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    Post  franco Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:05 pm

    Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (for the period from January 27 to February 3, 2024)

    In the period from January 27 to February 3 of this year, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation carried out 37 group strikes with precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on decision-making centers, objects of the military-industrial complex, military airfield infrastructure, arsenals and fuel bases of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, the locations of units of the armed forces of Ukraine, formations of nationalists and foreign mercenaries were affected. All assigned objects are hit.

    In the Kupyansk direction, units of the Western Group of Troops liberated the settlement of Tabayevka in the Kharkiv region and continued to improve the situation along the front edge in some areas. During the week, Russian troops repelled 41 attacks by assault groups of the 30th, 32nd, 44th, 60th mechanized, 57th motorized Infantry, 25th Airborne, 95th airborne assault brigades and 103rd Air Defense Brigade in the areas of the settlements of Sinkovka, Tabayevka, Kharkiv regions, Novoselovskoye of the Luhansk People's Republic and Terny of the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy's losses amounted to over 750 military personnel, a tank, nine armored combat vehicles, 21 vehicles, as well as eight field artillery guns.

    In the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Center group of forces, with the support of aviation and artillery fire, occupied more advantageous positions and repelled 19 enemy attacks. Clusters of manpower and equipment of the 60th, 63rd mechanized brigades, the 12th special purpose Brigade and the 13th brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Kirovsk, Yampolovka of the Donetsk People's Republic, Chervonaya Dibrova, Kuzmino of the Luhansk People's Republic, as well as the Serebryansk forestry. The enemy lost up to 1,825 soldiers killed and wounded, six tanks, 13 armored combat vehicles, 36 vehicles and six field artillery guns.

    In the Donetsk direction, units of the Southern Group of Troops competently improved the situation along the front edge and repelled 22 enemy attacks. Air strikes, artillery fire and heavy flamethrower systems defeated the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Verkhnekamenskoye, Artemovskoye, Krasnoe, Kleshcheyevka, Kurdyumovka, Andreevka, Belogorovka, Perezdnoye and Georgievka of the Donetsk People's Republic. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the specified period amounted to more than 2,245 servicemen, five tanks, 19 armored combat vehicles, 63 vehicles, 28 field artillery guns and two MLRS Grad combat vehicles.

    In the South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok group of forces jointly repelled nine attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, in the areas of the settlements of Novomikhailovka, Konstantinovka, Ugledar, Staromayorskoye, Makarovka of the Donetsk People's Republic and Priyutnoye of the Zaporozhye region, units of the 58th, 72nd mechanized, 79th airborne assault brigades, as well as the 127th and 128th air defense brigades were defeated. The enemy's losses amounted to up to 735 soldiers, two tanks, six armored combat vehicles, 17 vehicles, 12 field artillery guns and two MLRS Grad combat vehicles.

    In the Zaporozhye direction, units of Russian troops repelled an attack by an assault group of the 108th Air Defense Brigade in the area of the settlement of Lugovskoye and defeated the manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of the settlements of Workino, Nesteryanka, Pyatikhatki, Kamenskoye, Malaya Tokmachka and Orekhov of the Zaporozhye region. The enemy lost more than 385 servicemen, a tank, 10 armored combat vehicles, 19 vehicles, 15 field artillery guns and a Grad MLRS combat vehicle.

    In the Kherson direction, as a result of preemptive actions by Russian troops, air strikes and artillery fire, the manpower and equipment of the 35th, 36th, 38th Marine brigades, 121st, 123rd and 124th air defense brigades were defeated in the areas of the settlements of Nikolaevka, Tyaginka, Ivanovka, Tokarevka, Antonovka, Yantarnoye, Kherson region. The enemy lost up to 290 soldiers killed and wounded, four tanks, two armored combat vehicles, 26 vehicles, 11 boats and 12 field artillery guns. During the week, 26 Ukrainian servicemen surrendered.

    Over the past week, seven launchers of anti-aircraft missile systems, including five S-300, SAMP-T made in France, as well as IRIS-T made in Germany, were hit by operational and tactical aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of groups of troops. In addition, three radar stations of the Norwegian-made NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system, two radars of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, one radar station of the IRIS-T anti-aircraft missile system manufactured by Germany, as well as six ammunition depots of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit.

    Aviation and air defense systems shot down 20 aircraft guided missiles during the week, including four HARM anti-radar missiles, a JDAM guided aerial bomb, 53 HIMARS, Uragan and Alder multiple launch rocket systems, as well as 423 unmanned aerial vehicles.

    In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 568 aircraft, 265 helicopters, 11,678 unmanned aerial vehicles, 462 anti-aircraft missile systems, 14,893 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,215 multiple rocket launchers, 7,952 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 18,179 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed.

    https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12498856@egNews

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    Post  Kiko Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:07 pm

    Moscow should immediately send Russian air defence systems to defend Iraqi soil!

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    Post  nomadski Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:10 pm

    ^

    Was thinking the same . Iran or Russia providing AD to Iraq and Syria and Yemen . The attack recently by the Yanks , not sure about it's nature . Important to see if truly the attack was by long range bombers , and if stand off cruise missiles were fired , from international airspace , say over Med Sea . Or glide bombs JDAM was released by jets , while over Iraq or Syria airspace . My guess is that it was cruise missile attack by long range bombers , while over Eastern Med Sea , international airspace . The reason is the small size of explosions ( cruise missile only a 500 kg warhead ) and number of confirmed attacks and TV reports ! Then again a night time attack , means Jets  overhead using laser guided  ? Advance Iranian or Russian AD , will reduce number of attacks , by forcing long distance attacks using expensive and sparse cruise missile platforms ?
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    Post  Isos Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:24 pm

    It has a crew of 40.


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    Post  Kiko Sat Feb 03, 2024 5:04 pm

    Western Ukraine should be partitioned between Hungary, Romania & Poland.
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    Post  thegopnik Sat Feb 03, 2024 5:13 pm

    Kiko wrote:Western Ukraine should be partitioned between Hungary, Romania & Poland.
    Maybe Hungary for their decently nice relationship with Russia, but surely not poland or romania deserve anything from it.

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