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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53

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    ALAMO


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    Post  ALAMO Thu Feb 01, 2024 3:38 pm

    Lapain wrote:Again, this is how Germany won the war by sinking every Soviet ship of the BSF...

    It is totally irrelevant discussion made because the ukro trolls lack any other means to fulfill the duty.
    They will wank to every single piece of junked steel that will fall into camera, because they have so few of those.
    Soon a grilled truck will be a sign of inevitable peremoga.
    They have no more than that.
    Dancing over every single terror attack made because they can't hit a serious military target.
    And put a pics of burning refinery as downed Su-34, because those have leaked, and something has to be done with that.
    I have said that already.
    Check the Norwegian campaign of Germany in 1940.
    Find out the losses, and combine that with the fact that Norway was a 4mln country.
    And a whole operation involved 1/5th of the forces that are fighting this war.
    Norwegian operation is being cited as a mastermind of German military planning&executing so frightening in the early 40s.

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Thu Feb 01, 2024 3:55 pm

    Lapain wrote:

    Well tough luck, expect many more of these provocation attacks; Kerch bridge, Belbek , Belgorod, Donetsk, Moscow, Mariupol, Saratov, you name it... All with the aim of destabilizing the Russian elections and hopefully its economy.

    Symbolic PR attacks with no consequence at all

    Ivanovets is a ship that can't even leave the EEZ zone  

    Same as attacks on a small refinery in the middle of nowhere

    This is for westerns to feel good about the fact their agro and industrial hubs are collapsing, so sinking a soviet dinghy makes em feel better about it

    As for the economy, the IMF itself revised growth figures, they are the best they have ever been  Laughing

    lapain wrote:
    But I speculate that these provocations actually feed into the calculated risk made by the Russian HQ. The red lines crossed by the NATO handlers aren't discouraging the Russian populace, they are providing material for payback. The more of those appear, the more the response expected will be harsh. Russia in Ukraine 2024 isn't the USA of the 1960s or the USSR of the 1980s fighting a nebulous war overseas, it is fighting for its existence against a treacherous vile enemy, allied with all what represents the death of the Russian nation. It won't cede but on the contrary, strengthen its resolve. And if the Kremlin is wise enough, it should take the opportunity in the Middle East to reciprocate asymmetrically.

    I'd hardly consider it a war of survival, Russia is pretty unaffected by this - in all its more of a sideshow

    Most Russians have never been to this place in Belgorod that got hit, it's like asking Americans if they ever went to the San Jacinto Border crossing

    Same for Crimea, and Donetsk, these places are Ukrainian since 2014 - now they are Russian, but again most Russians aren't there to experience or see these strikes

    So they know little about it, and for average Russians living in Peter, Moscow, Rostov, novogorod, Samara, Kazan, Novosibirsk, Chelyabinsk, Vladivostok aside from the common train with tanks rolling, you never really see much or hear much except what the news and Telegram have to show

    Ergo, most Russians are pretty disconnected from it, the closest we saw to war in our country was Wagner during the March for justice, and people were out taking pictures with the musicians lol


    lapain wrote:
    Take now what's happening on the opposite side. The war in Ukraine is certainly the most unpopular war of our generations. Foreign is being literally being handled to a foreign party of dubious integrity right in front of the hungry masses. Everything is being artificially articulated with money that shouldn't exist, for example the so called US GDP growth that is the product of propping up using three times the debt. Eventually the charade will have to crumble by itself it is not sustainable, either through a massive financial meltdown, inflation crisis or the less likely popular uprising.  

    More to the point, it's all self inflicted


    lapain wrote:
    The Russians will sure have to endure the tumultuous year of 2024 as this one will surely usher the turning point. When the moment is right, they could even strike NATO right at its heart with impunity as the discredited Western elites won't even be able to invoke WW3 at that point.  

    Tumultuous for who? The US has a lot more domestic issues than Russia right now - and that's probably why they are so active abroad - to distract from internal destabilization going on - and we haven't even reached November

    IMO you are all bitching about shit that Russians don't care about or even hear about

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    Post  mnztr Thu Feb 01, 2024 4:07 pm

    So the Russian navy is aware of these weapons and their solution is a manned HMG? No grenade launcher? It was a old ship but it was silly to send it out there TBH.

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    Post  Hole Thu Feb 01, 2024 5:08 pm

    Russia not having enough men in the field for an offensive
    Russia is on the offensive along the entire frontline, even if the military isn´t calling it that way.
    There are enough troops in reserve to lengthen the frontline by another 1.000km (Belgorod/Charkov area, Belarus).

    expect many more of these provocation attacks
    The NATO/Ukros tried to hit other targets in Crimea and Southern Russia and failed.
    The roughly 35 or so years old ship was a consolation prize. Something to show for the 50 Bill. from the EU.
    Sad for the lost sailors but the ship will be replaced soon with a new one, able to launch Kaliber, Onyx and Zircon missiles.

    Tumultuous for who?
    European politicians. Farmers got many pitchforks. lol1

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Thu Feb 01, 2024 6:35 pm

    hole wrote:
    Russia is on the offensive along the entire frontline, even if the military isn´t calling it that way.
    There are enough troops in reserve to lengthen the frontline by another 1.000km (Belgorod/Charkov area, Belarus).

    It's not even an offensive, it's an active defense which has just launched minor counter attacks

    Which resulted in taking Marinka, Tabaevka, Krakhmalnoye,  half of Georgievka, and other positions not to mention Avdeevka

    We can't call it an offensive yet, because no such large scale operations even got launched

    As I said, 1-10 guys are killed every day - it is sad, but you can look at the obituaries to prove it, the casualties are the lowest they ever have been since the war started

    If the Russian army went on the offensive, they can easily extend the DMZ to at least 150km past the current contact line,  the losses would go up to 150-200 per day, but how long would Russia have to sustain that before belgorod and Crimea are out of range? 30-60 days?

    In the worse case another 12,000-20,000 casualties

    In the eyes of Moscow,  it is acceptable and we would add another 5 to 7 million people to our population as well as large territory as a buffer zone

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Feb 01, 2024 8:16 pm

    Looks like bunker design needs a major rethink

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    Post  GarryB Thu Feb 01, 2024 11:15 pm

    Not now or even in a year. There is a long way to go for Russia to win this war. Russia does not have the strength to break the Ukrainian lines and Ukraine does not have the strength to break the Russian lines.

    Ahhh bullshit... that wasn't a Russian counter offensive, it was a small advance in an area to test the strength of defences.

    You make it sound like Ukraine put 200K men into their counteroffensive last year and lost most of them and all their gear and were stopped without getting through Russian first lines of defence and now the Russians have used their 300K called up forces and tried to attack and got stopped just as bad.

    That is not what happened. But of course the western media would love everyone to think this is a stalemate, but it clearly isn't.

    Putin is talking about buffer zones to protect Russian areas... those buffer zones wont just happen... the Russian military will have to push forward and create such zones so there is a lot left to do.... but equally some Orc general might have Zelensky knocked off for all the young ukrainian men he has sent to their deaths, and he might want to talk with the Russians about Russian terms to end this conflict to find something he can agree on.

    Immediate ceasefire and Ukrainian soldiers surrendering their weapons and being processed by Russian forces to find the criminals and then the bulk sent home to their families.

    Russian forces would then enforce the peace while local referendums are held like they did in the Crimea... you know... the civilised way for the people to decide instead of elections where the candidate talking about peace and negotiations with the Russians (Zelensky) beats the candidate wanting war with Russia (Poroshenko), yet they still got war with Russia... democracy NOT working.

    The front is concreted. With a greater attack, Russia also suffers large losses.

    Glide kits for heavy bombs that have precision and low cost will make short work of concrete bunkers without causing losses for the attackers... behind this front line there is an expanse of territory that would be rather hard to actually defend so breaking through in various points and surrounding the front line defences and then wait them out and use drones to attack them day and night and they wont last forever... many of the hardcore nutters are no longer breathing. Many of the current batch have more experience with a keyboard than a rifle.

    The stories about how UA is already collapsing, which I have been reading here since April 22, are fairy tales.

    That is what Kiev wants you to say, but on the actual front line areas are being broken and are being overrun.... all the movement is to the west.... and they are not really benefiting much from the shorter supply lines.

    The Russians are getting new weapons and new systems and are developing their tactics to deal with their enemy and their tactics.

    Funding from the west is difficult and unpopular in the west... European farmers now understand the price for this conflict and they are not happy and plenty of German industrialists are likely thinking about moving to the US or elsewhere.

    Yes, there are only disabled and old people in the Ukrainian army, and Russia loses a lot of people and equipment, etc. with every major action. It's amazing what the army of disabled and old people can do.

    They were going to win two years ago... they had the might of the entire western world behind them and they were going to get super western weapons which would rip through Russian lines like a hot knife through butter.... no negotiations... they were just going to take what was theirs.

    Now there are disabled and old people in their ranks, which means they have to change tactics to terrorism and drones.

    Emotionally weak people like most people in the west who lose it when a guy with a bomb in his shoe kills a couple of people at a sports event are obviously not going to like a real war where casualties are going to happen for both sides.

    It is about cost benefit analysis... are you suggesting Russia should surrender? Are you suggesting they should adopt the methods of their nazi enemies... and become nazis themselves?

    If Russia agrees to a ceasefire now what happened before will happen again... the west will use the ceasefire to build up Kievs forces and train them and equipment them and work out tactics that might succeed the next time. You wont save Russian lives, you condemn more to pay a higher price later on.

    If Russia decides to go hard core nazi then of course the Ukrainian people will suffer rather more and be more inclined to continue resistance for an extended period of time which isn't going to save Russian lives either.

    What Russia is doing is the most sensible and will lead to more Ukrainians realising their future is better with Russia than with the US who has largely already forgotten them anyway.


    Russia does not have and will not have the strength to launch any major offensive in this war.

    Most of Russias military force is not even being used in this conflict.

    It is the Ukrainians that are losing up to 1,000 men per day plus using ammo and weapons they can't replace, Russia using larger forces just puts more targets on the chess board for Kiev to find and attack... sending in a million men would require supplies and ammo and fuel for a million man army... lots of juicy targets for the enemy as well as all those support columns that would be vulnerable to attack...

    The west has already lost interest.

    In my humble opinion, Putins heart is still not hardened. I am Medvevist when it comes to this. Russians are called monsters already, maybe it would be time to live up to the expectations? Why Jews can and Russians can’t?

    Because the Russians are the bad guys and Israelies are only protecting themselves by kicking people off the land and building their own settlements in their place.... you know... ethnic cleansing and genocide and all the things the west called Serbia...

    The point is that Putin is not a bastard and could care less what western people think of him or Russia, that is not important.

    What is important is that the people on the ground that are not immersed in Kiev or western propaganda can see who the liars and murderers are... Kiev has been banning language and religion and burning people to death since 2014... Russia has come to the rescue and is rebuilding and developing when the fighting stops... Kiev just destroys.

    Dams in Ukraine - surely, it will help the grain harvest next year

    Actually... that grain harvest is not for Ukrainians to eat, it is for US companies to make a profit, so taking on their farm machinery and farm buildings and grain storage structures and of course the truck transport that moves everything around would be valuable use of munitions in my opinion.

    Wiping out their crops wont lead to any Ukrainians starving, but it will serious damage western 'investments' in the region.

    Let them grow them and just before it is time to harvest hit the tractors and vehicles and the sheds they keep them in and burn the crops with incendiary bombs...

    Properties of anti-Russian rada members- a little tap on the window, especially nice if they are at home

    Target the assets and resources of hostile oligarchs in the country...

    The outrage is all used up, what else can West do? They already prolapsed screaming

    Well the boy who cried wolf comes to mind... if they actually did hit a hospital or school... well according to western press they have been doing that all this time so now they will have to say that was all a lie but now they are actually doing it...

    You seem not to see the forest because trees all around spoil your eyesight.

    Yes.... Regular... just because the west has been calling Russia a censored all this time it is not a good reason to start acting like one because the west is a tiny minority of the worlds population... the rest of the world that receives free grain and fertiliser from Russia despite being at war with the entire west... a war against Nazism and colonialism that they can really relate to... they understand that Russia is not making the easy choices, but the hard choices that will pay off in the future because you wont lose the respect of the world.

    Russia has a chance to do the right thing or they can simply go with emotion and have a temper tantrum and kill a few million Ukrainians with fire bombing and other brutal measures the west has used when they could.

    If they do the right thing their future and the future of the people of the Ukraine will be much better than if they just turn out to be a non english speaking America clone that is going to get impatient and start screwing the rest of the world like the so called first world does every day.

    When fighting monsters, you have to become one.
    Moral superiority doesn’t win generational wars.

    You can win a war and still maintain your human dignity... since when did the west ever fight a war and be chivalrous and fair... when they butchered all the darkies in Africa over the last few centuries did they give them guns and artillery to make it fair?

    When the murdered Afghans for a land route to China for trade were they being fair?

    Moral superiority wins the propaganda war in the end when the truth can no longer be hidden from anyone and it wins the peace to come... which is often the most important thing.

    The west will go into a conflict just to reduce the price of oil, they have been monsters in the middle east and africa and asia and central and south america for centuries... the whole house of cards is built on the fear that they will smash you and your family if you oppose them in any way... but look at the world reaction to the conflict in Ukraine... the west has sanctions and the rest of the world remains neutral... in fact even Turkey and Hungary are trying to remain neutral.

    Talk about cracks forming...

    The western position is not sustainable and its is damaging itself and its own future...

    I can understand the Russians. They are simply delaying what needs to be done, it’s same hesitation one gets while putting down a rabid dog

    How about we put it this way... if they went full retard from day one the western sanctions might have been world sanctions and the world might have supported the west more than sitting on the fence of supporting Russia.

    Equally by not going full retard on day one with constant and repeated escalations by the west in this conflict it gives Russia leeway and options to escalate and do things they were not doing before to punish escalations and perhaps deter them.

    The threat of what Russia might do is probably what is stopping the west from stealing Russian foreign assets so far.

    If they went full retard on day one they problably would have nationalised all western foreign owned assets too... and then the west will be calling Russia the bad guys but with some substance for a change.

    There is a lot of sympathy for them, at least if someone is a sane human.
    War was brought to them, no matter their position.
    The people of Ukraine voted twice for peace and were fooled twice.

    Then they should welcome Russians as liberators again to get rid of the leadership and oligarchs who betrayed them and give them an opportunity to start over, but there seems to be no interest in anything but blaming Russia for everything.

    It seems as if much in this war is a sitting duck against increasing numbers of drones. Could have been hit in both stern and amidships. Was quite close to Ukraine.

    They need to improve their ability to engage water surface and aerial and underwater drones across the navy.... this is an important lesson and not the first time they have had this lesson, but solutions will take time.

    Perhaps they should start destroying every ship in every Ukrainian controlled port including up the Danube as a message to them that this was not OK.

    Last time they also said they hit the HQ of the Orc Navy where such attacks were planned... they could probably repeat that too.

    American specialists may have been part of the crew that operated the US-made Patriot air defense system that shot down a Russian military aircraft carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war last week, TASS news agency reports.

    I still think that US embassy in Kiev is a legitimate target and should be hit in the middle of the day when fully manned.

    Anyway we await Putin to get on with it

    Orc tactics will be to try to get Putin to do something prematurely or emotionally... the attack should be launched when it has the best chances to succeed and not before.... or after.


    Russia never retaliates. The US and UK are safe.

    And what are the economies of each of these countries like?

    Russia does retaliate, but unlike the US and the UK they don't just lash out with enormously expensive but ultimately useless displays of arrogance.

    Putin and Russia work out exactly what happened and how and target their revenge to hurt those involved the most.

    But not enough firepower ! In WW2 , the Americans hunted kamikaze that targeted ships with guns . They did well . Look at volume of fire ! Searching by modern torch at night effective . Light up the Sea !

    A modern ship would destroy those planes easily enough with missiles.

    Some sort of gun mount optimised for hitting drones is a good idea but they are not there yet.

    Well in general, Putin has taken a restrained and meek approach

    Bullshit. A meek restrained approach and there would be no conflict and Kiev would have crushed the Ukrainians in Donbass and Lugansk and would now be asking for money and weapons from HATO to get the Crimea back.

    And he took his time to get ready as far as gathering volunteers, increasing production, and creating a missile and rocket park reserve

    Yeah, he really fucked up because one side in this conflict has all the men and machines and weapons and aircraft and tanks and ammo and drones that they need to fight this conflict with a rather good win/loss ratio, and the other side he has no role to plan for them.

    To be clear Putin is the president of Russia and does not micro manage the Russian military... with two way communication he sets them tasks and they complete those tasks how they see fit within guidelines.


    So even if certain things are missing, I think at least until May this situation can keep going, but once the winter is done regardless of which smaller items remain pending - the offensive should begin and the vote in March will be all about that

    Would have to be late spring if you want your vehicles to move though...

    Those drones ise starlink. Destroy a bunch of their satelitte since they are used as a weapon.

    That's legitim defence.

    Russians need to stop being pussies.

    Musk disabled Starlink in Russian territory to prevent Russia from doing things to his satellites.... I am sure if Putin suggests it he will also turn it off over the Black Sea too.

    Or there are steps they could take in that regard.


    I don't think these Ships are needed to engage non-existent Ukrainian navy in Black Sea , discharging torpedo or AShM .

    They have updated their anti ship missiles to include land attack capacity and I would say that although the Moskit can only reach about 300km it would be a rather potent anti building weapon that would be difficult to stop.

    The Russians will sure have to endure the tumultuous year of 2024 as this one will surely usher the turning point. When the moment is right, they could even strike NATO right at its heart with impunity as the discredited Western elites won't even be able to invoke WW3 at that point.

    Will they even need to bother... the way they are treating Hungary for stopping them pissing more money into the Kiev hole, and the state the German economy is in... and when Trump gets elected and he withdraws from HATO and probably Europe too...

    Russia wont even need to kick the door in... the only point of conflict would be if HATO and EU countries conspired to block Russian land and Sea access to Kaliningrad... but blocking sea access would be an act of war that article 5 becomes meaningless.

    More to the point, it's all self inflicted

    And even funnier, their solution to the crippling debt is to raise the amount they are allowed to borrow at a time when interest rates are going up...

    So the Russian navy is aware of these weapons and their solution is a manned HMG? No grenade launcher? It was a old ship but it was silly to send it out there TBH.

    Actually those drones are probably armoured with a bit of protective sheeting so a HMG would probably do rather better than a grenade launcher.

    I would think some sort of light ATGM launcher might do OK too... something like Bulat... a smaller lighter Kornet.... they are certainly dodging and weaving on its approach to the target.

    The EM systems on the boat should have been listening and trying to jam them.

    I would also say the optics used should enable an EO system to be developed to blind the optical systems of incoming surface and aerial drones making them harder to control.

    Solutions of course will take time.

    It's not even an offensive, it's an active defense which has just launched minor counter attacks

    Which resulted in taking Marinka, Tabaevka, Krakhmalnoye, half of Georgievka, and other positions not to mention Avdeevka

    We can't call it an offensive yet, because no such large scale operations even got launched

    In comparison with the Orc offensive it is a rout...

    Looks like bunker design needs a major rethink

    When the enemy is short of men hitting men with drones is probably more effective than hitting tanks and vehicles and systems... but of course they will hit both... because why wouldn't you?

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    Post  lyle6 Fri Feb 02, 2024 2:58 am

    Arrow wrote:The Kremlin does not even have the balls to shoot down Western UAVs over the Black Sea, which often coordinate attacks on the fleet and Crimea.
    Because you don't interrupt an enemy when he's making a mistake.

    These pinprick attacks have no meaningful impact to military operations but they do incense and inflame the Russian population even further than possible. Every day 1000 Russians just say **** it and drop everything - career, relationships, all the trappings of comfy civilian life that Putler's Russia has built for them, and join the Russian military just to shut the mouths of cowards like you.

    More importantly, once Russia's military has completed all the preparations for annihilating the satanic west and its lapdogs once and for all, there would be zero compunctions whatsoever from the Russian people. The mistake of sparing Hitler's Germany will never be made again.

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    Post  ALAMO Fri Feb 02, 2024 3:15 am

    GarryB wrote:
    Then they should welcome Russians as liberators again to get rid of the leadership and oligarchs who betrayed them and give them an opportunity to start over, but there seems to be no interest in anything but blaming Russia for everything.

    And they did.
    Most of the population remained in occupied territories - doesn't it tell us something?
    Cities like Melitopol and Berdiansk are alive. Even places like Mariopol or Volnovakha returning to normal living.
    Those are not folks from Moscor who arrive there, but returning citizens in most of the cases.
    There was a zrada yesterday at ZDF2 German state TV. It's correspondent arrived in Mariopol from Moscow, via Kazan, by car.
    Without any issues.
    And just walked on the Mariopol streets talking to random people.
    Not only the face of the program host, but her questions proved how the western propaganda differs from the situation on the ground.
    When the reporter said that it is a normal, living city with visible signs of giant reconstruction in process, open restaurants, working wi-fi and people who are doing their daily things all around, her jaw just dropped.
    She couldn't believe that he was just wandering all around, with no police/military supervision, what spoiled the narrative clown

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    Post  GarryB Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:49 am

    These pinprick attacks have no meaningful impact to military operations but they do incense and inflame the Russian population even further than possible.

    It also destroys the arguments from the Russian fifth columnists and pro nazi Ukrainians that if Russia just gets rid of Putin then relations with the west will be wonderful...

    These terrorist attacks on Russian civilians show the west hates Russia and Russians and will take every opportunity to kill them... you think when the conflict ends that business will go back to normal between Russia and the west.

    Lots of companies in the west will hope so because they invested a lot of money in Russia and expected to get 10s or even 100s of times more money out... this was no charity.

    When Kiev and the west stoop to low blows and cowardly attacks it just reinforces to Putin and Russia that your future will be much better with the rest of the world that does not hate you, than the west who hates you with a passion, but will pretend to be nice to make money from you.

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    Post  kvs Fri Feb 02, 2024 6:11 am

    ALAMO wrote:
    And they did.
    Most of the population remained in occupied territories - doesn't it tell us something?
    Cities like Melitopol and Berdiansk are alive. Even places like Mariopol or Volnovakha returning to normal living.
    Those are not folks from Moscor who arrive there, but returning citizens in most of the cases.

    I expect Ukrs in Kanada and elsewhere in the future to revise history and claim that all these peoples are Moskal squatters who moved in after the indigenous
    Ukrs were ethnically cleansed. After all, that is what they claim about the ethnic Russians living there already. They delete the fact that the Bolsheviks
    gifted Ukria with vast tracts of land in the south and east inhabited by ethnic Russians. This is before any Holodomor, which is transmuted into a blood libel lie by
    Ukr swine.

    This sort of swine shit makes me support the full liberation of Ukria from itself and NATzO. If western true Ukrs aren't happy, they can bugger on off to Kanada
    and any other dream destination. I know this is ethnic cleansing, but f*ck these hater swine. They had it good in 2013, but their hate is the most precious
    thing to them. This sort of thing needs to be punished. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

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    Post  ALAMO Fri Feb 02, 2024 6:54 am

    It is quite interesting that it was not Russia who started this stupid game for a stupid prize.
    Russians have been deported from Pribaltic states for years, according to full-scale "European values" of course.
    Reasons were called different names, like "threat to security" etc.
    It has opened a Pandora's box, because of the same thing Russians started to do in newly absorbed territories.
    And that is only one step from formal ethnic cleansing, only served on a cold plate and in silence.
    As I said, a project of voluntary exchange of citizens organized at a state level would be quite an effective solution.
    A specially established fund in responsible to buy back immobilizes belonging to Ukrainian citizens who want to go to the Ukraine - if one still exists. At a fair price. To sell it back to loyal citizens, both living there and ones wanting to relocate. And for Ukrainian citizens who want to emigrate to Russia.

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:34 am

    It will still look good on Ukie videos as there will still be a big cloud of smoke, then CUT!

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:41 am

    MilitaryLand.net
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    📷Photos of M60 AVLB now officially published by Ukrainian 5th Tank Brigade. We reported about the delivery back in January.

    Loading on an ex German HX81 transporter

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    Stock photo

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 02, 2024 7:52 am

    GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --
    @GeromanAT
    Avdeevka.
    The soldiers of the 114th brigade advanced south to the Ivushka garden community. To the north of the sand pit, with a high degree of probability, AFU retreated.

    🇷🇺 Sofa General Staff
    (If RF can hold and expand 1km further SW - Avdeevka is cut off - map3)

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:01 am

    Iskander strike

    ayden
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    .
    21h
    A train was struck while stopped at one of the logistic/staging areas for the AFU in Avdeevka. This is about as close as trains can get to the front before everything is loaded on to trucks. Tornado-S is the likely weapon system being employed here.

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:17 am

    All ready for their spring offensive Laughing

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:27 am

    Good comments in the thread https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1753227886008631782

    Will Schryver
    @imetatronink
    ⚡ Has Russia's Black Sea Fleet Been Savaged by Ukraine?

    I stumbled upon the chart below, apparently prepared by a former Belgian naval officer who keeps track of the Russian navy.

    At first glance, one might consider it an awe-inspiring list. Only when you examine it in detail do you realize it is not an impressive war fleet — of which, as far as I can ascertain, only TWO warships were struck (and sunk) while at sea: the old cruiser Moskva and the old corvette Ivonovets. In fact, the Ivonovets was actually in Lake Donuzlav.

    Every other ship was struck in port or in dry dock — stationary targets.

    Now, there's nothing to be ashamed of by hitting a ship in port or dry dock. But none of these 11 ships, with the exception of the two warships sunk at sea, is meaningful in the context of the current war.

    (I should note that @KaptainLoma
    lists 12 ships, one of which — the Novocherkassk landing ship — was first damaged in one port, then sunk while under repair in a different port.)

    Of the other 9 listed, 3 were only damaged.

    Of those destroyed in port, 3 were landing ships, 1 was a corvette, and 1 an old Kilo-class sub in dry dock.

    1 tug boat is "presumed" to have been sunk.

    It should also be noted that every single ship hit since June 2022 was struck by NATO-provided surface drones or cruise missiles — all of which were wholly dependent on NATO ISR platforms, and very likely operated by NATO personnel.

    This is an important consideration to keep in mind.

    It speaks to the level of desperation at which the US and its European vassals have arrived in relation to this lost-cause war. They have long-since resorted to strategically meaningless strikes for propaganda purposes, and not to meaningfully degrade Russian war-making capabilities.

    Of course, I've argued for years that surface ships are highly susceptible to the asymmetric means now available to strike them.

    Even so, Russian naval losses over the course of the war against NATO in Ukraine war are militarily negligible.

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    Post  JohninMK Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:32 am

    What a total arrogant idiot. How to create and sign your own death warrant in one easy lesson. Shocked

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    Post  franco Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:51 am

    JohninMK wrote:Good comments in the thread https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1753227886008631782

    Will Schryver
    @imetatronink
    ⚡ Has Russia's Black Sea Fleet Been Savaged by Ukraine?

    I stumbled upon the chart below, apparently prepared by a former Belgian naval officer who keeps track of the Russian navy.

    At first glance, one might consider it an awe-inspiring list. Only when you examine it in detail do you realize it is not an impressive war fleet — of which, as far as I can ascertain, only TWO warships were struck (and sunk) while at sea: the old cruiser Moskva and the old corvette Ivonovets. In fact, the Ivonovets was actually in Lake Donuzlav.

    Every other ship was struck in port or in dry dock — stationary targets.

    Now, there's nothing to be ashamed of by hitting a ship in port or dry dock. But none of these 11 ships, with the exception of the two warships sunk at sea, is meaningful in the context of the current war.

    (I should note that @KaptainLoma
    lists 12 ships, one of which — the Novocherkassk landing ship — was first damaged in one port, then sunk while under repair in a different port.)

    Of the other 9 listed, 3 were only damaged.

    Of those destroyed in port, 3 were landing ships, 1 was a corvette, and 1 an old Kilo-class sub in dry dock.

    1 tug boat is "presumed" to have been sunk.

    It should also be noted that every single ship hit since June 2022 was struck by NATO-provided surface drones or cruise missiles — all of which were wholly dependent on NATO ISR platforms, and very likely operated by NATO personnel.

    This is an important consideration to keep in mind.

    It speaks to the level of desperation at which the US and its European vassals have arrived in relation to this lost-cause war. They have long-since resorted to strategically meaningless strikes for propaganda purposes, and not to meaningfully degrade Russian war-making capabilities.

    Of course, I've argued for years that surface ships are highly susceptible to the asymmetric means now available to strike them.

    Even so, Russian naval losses over the course of the war against NATO in Ukraine war are militarily negligible.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #53 - Page 5 GFSxHrZbkAAtCYA?format=jpg&name=medium

    The Russians announced last week that two of those described here (LST Minsk, SSK Rostov-Don) as destroyed are to be repaired.

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    Post  nomadski Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:17 am

    ^




    It was love at first ! What handsome smile or beautiful eyes ! Snoring was an " insignificant , " little fault ! But on the 7659 th night , of loud snoring , it triggered a psychotic episode and murder ! These lost Ships will NOT be " insignificant , " after 7659 th day of war . After 20 years of war , we are talking 100 lost Ships or Sub ! Therefore alternate tactic needed . As I said , no need for Ships in Black Sea . Only need fast attack Boats for shallow water . These can intercept drones , avoid drones by speed alone , avoid mostly being hit by missiles by hiding at Port , under canopy . Or while moving Zig Zag . Go up Estuary . Land on beaches to intercept troop concentrations of inspect " Grain, " cargo ships .......And their loss is less expensive with only two crew each , most times . They can be made by Russia and be armoured too .

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    Post  mnztr Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:32 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:
    hole wrote:
    Russia is on the offensive along the entire frontline, even if the military isn´t calling it that way.
    There are enough troops in reserve to lengthen the frontline by another 1.000km (Belgorod/Charkov area, Belarus).

    It's not even an offensive, it's an active defense which has just launched minor counter attacks

    Which resulted in taking Marinka, Tabaevka, Krakhmalnoye,  half of Georgievka, and other positions not to mention Avdeevka

    We can't call it an offensive yet, because no such large scale operations even got launched

    As I said, 1-10 guys are killed every day - it is sad, but you can look at the obituaries to prove it, the casualties are the lowest they ever have been since the war started

    If the Russian army went on the offensive, they can easily extend the DMZ to at least 150km past the current contact line,  the losses would go up to 150-200 per day, but how long would Russia have to sustain that before belgorod and Crimea are out of range? 30-60 days?

    In the worse case another 12,000-20,000 casualties

    In the eyes of Moscow,  it is acceptable and we would add another 5 to 7 million people to our population as well as large territory as a buffer zone

    With the evolution of drone tech, Crimea and Belgrod will never be out of range as long as there is a Ukraine. Drones will only become more capable. , you can easily have a sea drone that launches a flying drone. A flying drone that land and uses track get to its target ...etc etc,

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    Post  nomadski Fri Feb 02, 2024 10:50 am




    Good idea to make any vehicle now , operable both manually or remotely or by AI autopilot . Including interceptor fast attack Boats ........

    Wink

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Fri Feb 02, 2024 11:32 am

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-ato/3821148-isw-analyzes-putins-statements-on-demilitarized-zone-in-ukraine.html

    Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down on his maximalist and purposefully vague territorial objectives in Ukraine, voicing plans for setting up a so-called "demilitarized zone".

    That’s according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, seen by Ukrinform.

    "Putin’s stated goal of pushing the front line so that Russia’s claimed and actual territories are outside of Ukrainian firing range is a vague goal that is actually unattainable as long as there is an independent Ukraine with any ability to fight," the ISW emphasizes.

    Analysts suggest that Putin will most likely try to annex any new Ukrainian territories, but either way, should he succeed, those territories would still remain within reach of the weapons that Ukraine has at hand.

    "Putin’s January 31 statements do not represent significant inflections in Russia’s stated war aims or actual military capabilities but are rather likely intended to capitalize on existing narratives in Western media that could block short and long term Western military assistance to Ukraine and compel the West to negotiate with Russia on Russian terms," ISW analysts believe.

    ----

    The ISW already understands what is coming

    The massive Russian army will shift from mobile defense into active offensive operations

    Contrary to what Budanov stated, about Russian offensive fizzling in spring

    Offensive operations have not begun

    With minor losses of storm z units, the capable part of the Russian army has been maintained in a reserve, fighting at standoff range with the Tavrida group

    After probes at Tabaevka, Krakhmalnoye, Georgievka

    The general staff detects weaknesses at the line

    It will be easy to break Ukro lines and expand the zone of the DMZ to protect Belgorod, Crimea, Bryansk

    Yes the new Russian territories will be exposed to missiles and rockets, but it is the consequence of living close to the border

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Fri Feb 02, 2024 12:20 pm

    mnztr wrote:

    With the evolution of drone tech, Crimea and Belgrod will never be out of range as long as there is a Ukraine. Drones will only become more capable. , you can easily have a sea drone that launches a flying drone. A flying drone that land and uses track get to its target ...etc etc,

    The general staff and Putin disagree with you

    He has already announced the creation of the DMZ

    You really believe there is a stalemate? Mobile defense operations with the odd DRG raid do not constitute an offensive posture or operations

    The Russian army is in a defensive posture throughout the frontline - meaning 0 offensive moves have been attempted

    The capture of these villages and towns, and the assault of Avdeevka, or position warfare around Bakhmut and Sinkovka/Kupyansk, and even the storming of Rabotino are not at all offensive operations

    This is where Arrow, Mnztr,  and most observers confuse things and are not versed in operational level warfare and buy into the western narrative of a "stalemate"

    Offensive operations are more similar to Gostomel raids, operations at Kharkov, and the crossing of the Dnieper at Kherson into Krivoy Rog

    These raids are perfectly available to be conducted- actually when we observe Gostomel note that Russia conducted it with less than 200,000 men throughout Ukraine

    The achievements were the encirclement of Kharkov and Kiev and Nikolayev

    Right now the Russian army has over 500,000 troops around the same area, or more than double the numbers since 24/02/22

    Do you understand what Putin is saying when he mentions a DMZ?

    He is referring to the resumption of large scale offensive and maneuver war

    You can dig your head in the sand, but as Naryshkin and Putin already stated

    The fate of Ukraine will be very sad... you can choose whatever you want to believe

    For example Budanov claims that the Russian offensive will fizzle out in spring

    If this is what they believe, then I am inclined to believe what Naryshkin is saying

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