Not now or even in a year. There is a long way to go for Russia to win this war. Russia does not have the strength to break the Ukrainian lines and Ukraine does not have the strength to break the Russian lines.
Ahhh bullshit... that wasn't a Russian counter offensive, it was a small advance in an area to test the strength of defences.
You make it sound like Ukraine put 200K men into their counteroffensive last year and lost most of them and all their gear and were stopped without getting through Russian first lines of defence and now the Russians have used their 300K called up forces and tried to attack and got stopped just as bad.
That is not what happened. But of course the western media would love everyone to think this is a stalemate, but it clearly isn't.
Putin is talking about buffer zones to protect Russian areas... those buffer zones wont just happen... the Russian military will have to push forward and create such zones so there is a lot left to do.... but equally some Orc general might have Zelensky knocked off for all the young ukrainian men he has sent to their deaths, and he might want to talk with the Russians about Russian terms to end this conflict to find something he can agree on.
Immediate ceasefire and Ukrainian soldiers surrendering their weapons and being processed by Russian forces to find the criminals and then the bulk sent home to their families.
Russian forces would then enforce the peace while local referendums are held like they did in the Crimea... you know... the civilised way for the people to decide instead of elections where the candidate talking about peace and negotiations with the Russians (Zelensky) beats the candidate wanting war with Russia (Poroshenko), yet they still got war with Russia... democracy NOT working.
The front is concreted. With a greater attack, Russia also suffers large losses.
Glide kits for heavy bombs that have precision and low cost will make short work of concrete bunkers without causing losses for the attackers... behind this front line there is an expanse of territory that would be rather hard to actually defend so breaking through in various points and surrounding the front line defences and then wait them out and use drones to attack them day and night and they wont last forever... many of the hardcore nutters are no longer breathing. Many of the current batch have more experience with a keyboard than a rifle.
The stories about how UA is already collapsing, which I have been reading here since April 22, are fairy tales.
That is what Kiev wants you to say, but on the actual front line areas are being broken and are being overrun.... all the movement is to the west.... and they are not really benefiting much from the shorter supply lines.
The Russians are getting new weapons and new systems and are developing their tactics to deal with their enemy and their tactics.
Funding from the west is difficult and unpopular in the west... European farmers now understand the price for this conflict and they are not happy and plenty of German industrialists are likely thinking about moving to the US or elsewhere.
Yes, there are only disabled and old people in the Ukrainian army, and Russia loses a lot of people and equipment, etc. with every major action. It's amazing what the army of disabled and old people can do.
They were going to win two years ago... they had the might of the entire western world behind them and they were going to get super western weapons which would rip through Russian lines like a hot knife through butter.... no negotiations... they were just going to take what was theirs.
Now there are disabled and old people in their ranks, which means they have to change tactics to terrorism and drones.
Emotionally weak people like most people in the west who lose it when a guy with a bomb in his shoe kills a couple of people at a sports event are obviously not going to like a real war where casualties are going to happen for both sides.
It is about cost benefit analysis... are you suggesting Russia should surrender? Are you suggesting they should adopt the methods of their nazi enemies... and become nazis themselves?
If Russia agrees to a ceasefire now what happened before will happen again... the west will use the ceasefire to build up Kievs forces and train them and equipment them and work out tactics that might succeed the next time. You wont save Russian lives, you condemn more to pay a higher price later on.
If Russia decides to go hard core nazi then of course the Ukrainian people will suffer rather more and be more inclined to continue resistance for an extended period of time which isn't going to save Russian lives either.
What Russia is doing is the most sensible and will lead to more Ukrainians realising their future is better with Russia than with the US who has largely already forgotten them anyway.
Russia does not have and will not have the strength to launch any major offensive in this war.
Most of Russias military force is not even being used in this conflict.
It is the Ukrainians that are losing up to 1,000 men per day plus using ammo and weapons they can't replace, Russia using larger forces just puts more targets on the chess board for Kiev to find and attack... sending in a million men would require supplies and ammo and fuel for a million man army... lots of juicy targets for the enemy as well as all those support columns that would be vulnerable to attack...
The west has already lost interest.
In my humble opinion, Putins heart is still not hardened. I am Medvevist when it comes to this. Russians are called monsters already, maybe it would be time to live up to the expectations? Why Jews can and Russians can’t?
Because the Russians are the bad guys and Israelies are only protecting themselves by kicking people off the land and building their own settlements in their place.... you know... ethnic cleansing and genocide and all the things the west called Serbia...
The point is that Putin is not a bastard and could care less what western people think of him or Russia, that is not important.
What is important is that the people on the ground that are not immersed in Kiev or western propaganda can see who the liars and murderers are... Kiev has been banning language and religion and burning people to death since 2014... Russia has come to the rescue and is rebuilding and developing when the fighting stops... Kiev just destroys.
Dams in Ukraine - surely, it will help the grain harvest next year
Actually... that grain harvest is not for Ukrainians to eat, it is for US companies to make a profit, so taking on their farm machinery and farm buildings and grain storage structures and of course the truck transport that moves everything around would be valuable use of munitions in my opinion.
Wiping out their crops wont lead to any Ukrainians starving, but it will serious damage western 'investments' in the region.
Let them grow them and just before it is time to harvest hit the tractors and vehicles and the sheds they keep them in and burn the crops with incendiary bombs...
Properties of anti-Russian rada members- a little tap on the window, especially nice if they are at home
Target the assets and resources of hostile oligarchs in the country...
The outrage is all used up, what else can West do? They already prolapsed screaming
Well the boy who cried wolf comes to mind... if they actually did hit a hospital or school... well according to western press they have been doing that all this time so now they will have to say that was all a lie but now they are actually doing it...
You seem not to see the forest because trees all around spoil your eyesight.
Yes.... Regular... just because the west has been calling Russia a
all this time it is not a good reason to start acting like one because the west is a tiny minority of the worlds population... the rest of the world that receives free grain and fertiliser from Russia despite being at war with the entire west... a war against Nazism and colonialism that they can really relate to... they understand that Russia is not making the easy choices, but the hard choices that will pay off in the future because you wont lose the respect of the world.
Russia has a chance to do the right thing or they can simply go with emotion and have a temper tantrum and kill a few million Ukrainians with fire bombing and other brutal measures the west has used when they could.
If they do the right thing their future and the future of the people of the Ukraine will be much better than if they just turn out to be a non english speaking America clone that is going to get impatient and start screwing the rest of the world like the so called first world does every day.
When fighting monsters, you have to become one.
Moral superiority doesn’t win generational wars.
You can win a war and still maintain your human dignity... since when did the west ever fight a war and be chivalrous and fair... when they butchered all the darkies in Africa over the last few centuries did they give them guns and artillery to make it fair?
When the murdered Afghans for a land route to China for trade were they being fair?
Moral superiority wins the propaganda war in the end when the truth can no longer be hidden from anyone and it wins the peace to come... which is often the most important thing.
The west will go into a conflict just to reduce the price of oil, they have been monsters in the middle east and africa and asia and central and south america for centuries... the whole house of cards is built on the fear that they will smash you and your family if you oppose them in any way... but look at the world reaction to the conflict in Ukraine... the west has sanctions and the rest of the world remains neutral... in fact even Turkey and Hungary are trying to remain neutral.
Talk about cracks forming...
The western position is not sustainable and its is damaging itself and its own future...
I can understand the Russians. They are simply delaying what needs to be done, it’s same hesitation one gets while putting down a rabid dog
How about we put it this way... if they went full retard from day one the western sanctions might have been world sanctions and the world might have supported the west more than sitting on the fence of supporting Russia.
Equally by not going full retard on day one with constant and repeated escalations by the west in this conflict it gives Russia leeway and options to escalate and do things they were not doing before to punish escalations and perhaps deter them.
The threat of what Russia might do is probably what is stopping the west from stealing Russian foreign assets so far.
If they went full retard on day one they problably would have nationalised all western foreign owned assets too... and then the west will be calling Russia the bad guys but with some substance for a change.
There is a lot of sympathy for them, at least if someone is a sane human.
War was brought to them, no matter their position.
The people of Ukraine voted twice for peace and were fooled twice.
Then they should welcome Russians as liberators again to get rid of the leadership and oligarchs who betrayed them and give them an opportunity to start over, but there seems to be no interest in anything but blaming Russia for everything.
It seems as if much in this war is a sitting duck against increasing numbers of drones. Could have been hit in both stern and amidships. Was quite close to Ukraine.
They need to improve their ability to engage water surface and aerial and underwater drones across the navy.... this is an important lesson and not the first time they have had this lesson, but solutions will take time.
Perhaps they should start destroying every ship in every Ukrainian controlled port including up the Danube as a message to them that this was not OK.
Last time they also said they hit the HQ of the Orc Navy where such attacks were planned... they could probably repeat that too.
American specialists may have been part of the crew that operated the US-made Patriot air defense system that shot down a Russian military aircraft carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war last week, TASS news agency reports.
I still think that US embassy in Kiev is a legitimate target and should be hit in the middle of the day when fully manned.
Anyway we await Putin to get on with it
Orc tactics will be to try to get Putin to do something prematurely or emotionally... the attack should be launched when it has the best chances to succeed and not before.... or after.
Russia never retaliates. The US and UK are safe.
And what are the economies of each of these countries like?
Russia does retaliate, but unlike the US and the UK they don't just lash out with enormously expensive but ultimately useless displays of arrogance.
Putin and Russia work out exactly what happened and how and target their revenge to hurt those involved the most.
But not enough firepower ! In WW2 , the Americans hunted kamikaze that targeted ships with guns . They did well . Look at volume of fire ! Searching by modern torch at night effective . Light up the Sea !
A modern ship would destroy those planes easily enough with missiles.
Some sort of gun mount optimised for hitting drones is a good idea but they are not there yet.
Well in general, Putin has taken a restrained and meek approach
Bullshit. A meek restrained approach and there would be no conflict and Kiev would have crushed the Ukrainians in Donbass and Lugansk and would now be asking for money and weapons from HATO to get the Crimea back.
And he took his time to get ready as far as gathering volunteers, increasing production, and creating a missile and rocket park reserve
Yeah, he really fucked up because one side in this conflict has all the men and machines and weapons and aircraft and tanks and ammo and drones that they need to fight this conflict with a rather good win/loss ratio, and the other side he has no role to plan for them.
To be clear Putin is the president of Russia and does not micro manage the Russian military... with two way communication he sets them tasks and they complete those tasks how they see fit within guidelines.
So even if certain things are missing, I think at least until May this situation can keep going, but once the winter is done regardless of which smaller items remain pending - the offensive should begin and the vote in March will be all about that
Would have to be late spring if you want your vehicles to move though...
Those drones ise starlink. Destroy a bunch of their satelitte since they are used as a weapon.
That's legitim defence.
Russians need to stop being pussies.
Musk disabled Starlink in Russian territory to prevent Russia from doing things to his satellites.... I am sure if Putin suggests it he will also turn it off over the Black Sea too.
Or there are steps they could take in that regard.
I don't think these Ships are needed to engage non-existent Ukrainian navy in Black Sea , discharging torpedo or AShM .
They have updated their anti ship missiles to include land attack capacity and I would say that although the Moskit can only reach about 300km it would be a rather potent anti building weapon that would be difficult to stop.
The Russians will sure have to endure the tumultuous year of 2024 as this one will surely usher the turning point. When the moment is right, they could even strike NATO right at its heart with impunity as the discredited Western elites won't even be able to invoke WW3 at that point.
Will they even need to bother... the way they are treating Hungary for stopping them pissing more money into the Kiev hole, and the state the German economy is in... and when Trump gets elected and he withdraws from HATO and probably Europe too...
Russia wont even need to kick the door in... the only point of conflict would be if HATO and EU countries conspired to block Russian land and Sea access to Kaliningrad... but blocking sea access would be an act of war that article 5 becomes meaningless.
More to the point, it's all self inflicted
And even funnier, their solution to the crippling debt is to raise the amount they are allowed to borrow at a time when interest rates are going up...
So the Russian navy is aware of these weapons and their solution is a manned HMG? No grenade launcher? It was a old ship but it was silly to send it out there TBH.
Actually those drones are probably armoured with a bit of protective sheeting so a HMG would probably do rather better than a grenade launcher.
I would think some sort of light ATGM launcher might do OK too... something like Bulat... a smaller lighter Kornet.... they are certainly dodging and weaving on its approach to the target.
The EM systems on the boat should have been listening and trying to jam them.
I would also say the optics used should enable an EO system to be developed to blind the optical systems of incoming surface and aerial drones making them harder to control.
Solutions of course will take time.
It's not even an offensive, it's an active defense which has just launched minor counter attacks
Which resulted in taking Marinka, Tabaevka, Krakhmalnoye, half of Georgievka, and other positions not to mention Avdeevka
We can't call it an offensive yet, because no such large scale operations even got launched
In comparison with the Orc offensive it is a rout...
Looks like bunker design needs a major rethink
When the enemy is short of men hitting men with drones is probably more effective than hitting tanks and vehicles and systems... but of course they will hit both... because why wouldn't you?