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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    TMA1
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    Post  TMA1 Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:59 pm

    kvs wrote:

    It's all propaganda theater and the usual concern trolls are out polluting this thread.


    Yeah but an A-50u was still lost. I do not think you realize how angry and desperate western leaders are to force Russia's hand.  All this makes me convinced that Lloyd Austen was indeed hit. Russia needs to keep doing what they are doing. If Ukraine is holding back precious patriot missiles for stuff like this then Russia has ample opportunity to keep striking all of Ukrane at will. This is important.

    More a-50 aircraft need upgrading and the a-100 needs to be sped up as it undoubtedly is. They also should think of jerry rigging side looking warning and control aircraft using fighter radars or something similar. All in all Russian MIC needs boosted development even more than it is now.

    Edit: also fighterbomber is an important means of getting information out that just cannot be relayed via Russian MOD. This kind of indirect means of getting information out is vital. If you exact Russian MOD to be so blunt about stuff you are an idiot. Thry use side channels. That is why fighterbomber is allowed to say what his channels say.
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:22 pm

    TMA1 wrote:

    Yeah but an A-50u was still lost. I do not think you realize how angry and desperate western leaders are to force Russia's hand.  All this makes me convinced that Lloyd Austen was indeed hit. Russia needs to keep doing what they are doing. If Ukraine is holding back precious patriot missiles for stuff like this then Russia has ample opportunity to keep striking all of Ukrane at will. This is important.

    More a-50 aircraft need upgrading and the a-100 needs to be sped up as it undoubtedly is. They also should think of jerry rigging side looking warning and control aircraft using fighter radars or something similar. All in all Russian MIC needs boosted development even more than it is now.

    Edit: also fighterbomber is an important means of getting information out that just cannot be relayed via Russian MOD. This kind of indirect means of getting information out is vital. If you exact Russian MOD to be so blunt about stuff you are an idiot. Thry use side channels. That is why fighterbomber is allowed to say what his channels say.

    No need to speculate, more information will come out , but speculating is just gonna muddy the analysis

    Instead why not focus on the developments which are happening?

    Putin has said some pretty big things - about the statehood of Ukraine

    Believe that all of Russia is behind the military, and that society expects something

    That's why the elections are so important, not just as a bureaucratic process, but as a means of the Russian elite communicating with the Russian people

    Tactical nuance at this time is not so important, think of the current frontline events as event-shaping

    So the big moves are not happening yet, but all these minor things like shoot-down of aircraft, or villages changing hands are just a prelude of more defining events to come

    We are in a "download" phase

    It is winter, and everything is mostly narrative shaping, or event shaping at this point

    The big moves are coming in spring, and summer leading into 2025

    Just be patient and observe because we are in for a bumpy ride !


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    Post  JohninMK Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:23 pm

    Iran Observer
    @IranObserver0
    ⚡BREAKING

    Russia has signed a major arms deal with Iran for Iranian weapons

    According to RIA Novosti, the Russian Defence Ministry has signed a major contract with Iran for the purchase of a large quantity of Iranian weapons

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    Post  JohninMK Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:39 pm

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:52 pm

    In six years, Russia plans to produce 600  thumbsup civil aircraft. And part of the money will be allocated from the National Welfare Fund. Which planes should replace Boeing and Airbus, and are the factories ready to increase the production of domestic airliners so dramatically?

    The Government approved a comprehensive program to expand the production of aircraft, engines, instruments and assemblies and allowed the use of funds from the National Welfare Fund to finance it. On a return basis, it will be possible to attract more than 280 billion rubles for such purposes, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a meeting with deputy prime ministers on Monday.

    Last summer, the government approved a program for the development of the air transport industry, where it was planned to deliver as many as 1036 new domestic aircraft by 2030. However, there is no talk of reducing the program. When talking about more than 1,000 aircraft, this includes not only large airliners such as MS-21, SSJ-100, but also small aircraft such as TVRS-44 "Ladoga", L-410 and" Baikal " plus civilian helicopters.

    Mishustin also talks about 600 aircraft that should be produced by the United Aviation Corporation (UAC) by 2030. These are four types of aircraft: 270 MS-21 aircraft, 142 SSJ-100 aircraft, 115 Tu-214 aircraft and 70 IL-114-300 aircraft.

    It seems the loss of an old IL22 and A50U, is just tactical nuance

    On the operational level - 600 planes are going to he built in 6 years

    That is 100 aircraft a year

    That means A100, and Tu214R will be handed to the VKS like cakes because with any civil order a fraction is handed to the military

    THAT is real news!


    Last edited by Arkanghelsk on Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  SolidarityWithRussia Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:57 pm

    It looks like the A-50 was probably not shot down.  Smile

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    Post  kvs Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:17 pm

    Some bloggers claimed so it must be true. Rolling Eyes

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    Post  lancelot Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:39 pm

    SolidarityWithRussia wrote:Did Russia really loose its A-50 AWACS aircraft? That would be horrible news. I think even worse than the loss of the Moskwa.
    Do not be hyperbolic. Russia had three cruisers like the Moskva. They have like a dozen of these things.
    Right now they don't produce new AWACS aircraft. But they can probably produce like one or two a year.

    Compare this with the time it takes them to put any ship into service.

    Besides we have so far had zero credible evidence that any A-50U was damaged last week let alone lost.

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:02 pm

    lancelot wrote:
    Do not be hyperbolic. Russia had three cruisers like the Moskva. They have like a dozen of these things.
    Right now they don't produce new AWACS aircraft. But they can probably produce like one or two a year.

    Compare this with the time it takes them to put any ship into service.

    Besides we have so far had zero credible evidence that any A-50U was damaged last week let alone lost.

    600 planes will be built until 2030

    I'd wait for the production to begin to reassess what mass production capabilities exist

    If the figures put out by Mishustin are to be taken seriously

    We talk about 100 new airliners produced a year:

    1. 45 MS-21 / year
    2. 68 ssj-100 / year
    3. 19 tu214 / year
    4. 11 il 114-300 / year

    You get roughly 100 frames

    From that order, you can be certain the VKS will be given IL 114-300 as the basis for radiolocation planes, tu214 for ELINT, and more IL76MD90 for A100 (itself already in production)

    Only question is, what factories will focus on large frame aircraft?

    VASO-MIG - il114
    Irkut and KNAAPO - MS21

    VAPO - tu214 , aviastar too although they're busy with IL76

    KNAAPO - ssj-100



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    Post  Hole Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:28 pm

    They claimed that Ukraine shot down a Su-34
    Ukros claimed 5, then 7. Most "reliable" channels run with the story of 5 downed planes. Rolling Eyes

    I think it was a desperation attack with help from the west
    Using what exactly?
    Distance between the area and Ukro controlled territory is roughly 230km.

    detach their large payload then return.
    We need a drone now big enough to carry 250kg bombs.
    Or 500kg. drunken

    Some bloggers claimed so it must be true.
    Stop it.
    Most here can´t grasp irony. Very Happy

    That means A100
    A-100 is based on the Il-76MD-90A.
    All those new or import stuff exempt planes can be used by the military now.
    In the past the rejected the SSJ100 because of the foreign parts.

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    Post  Hole Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:30 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 24 24291410
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    Twisted Evil

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    Post  Isos Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:33 pm

    Il-114 is already ready for production and they proposed versions for awacs, maritime patrol, Elint, EW jammer, and maritime strike patrol.

    It's their fault they didn't buy at least 3 of each. A-50U is very good but also more of a strategical aicraft that should be kept in safe places.

    An awacs il-114 could very well track su-27 or su-24 and keep a eye above s-400 with datalink across all eastern ukraine. The Elint would hunt AD and jammer would be useful to blind radar when needed. The maritime strike version could be used from Tartous to keep an eye on US forces in the middle east and Med sea.


    Last edited by Isos on Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:36 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  JohninMK Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:35 pm

    For a moment I thought I had strayed into the civil aviation thread Laughing Laughing

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:38 pm

    Russia is currently producing like half a dozen Il-76MD-90A a year. The production facilities can produce like twice that amount.
    They upgrade like one A-50U a year. This basically involves replacing all the electronics inside the aircraft.

    So are there any doubts they could produce one AEW&C aircraft a year if they wanted to?

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:40 pm

    Isos wrote:Il-114 is already ready for production and they proposed versions for awacs, maritime patrol, Elint, EW jammer, and maritime strike patrol.

    It's their fault they didn't buy at least 3 of each. A-50U is very good but also more of a strategival aicraft that should be kept in safe pleces.

    An awacs il-114 could very well track su-27 or su-24 and keep a eye above s-400 with datalink across all eastern ukraine.

    Specifically the black sea fleet could use several of those IL114 in AWACS version

    They could even get some ASW planes as well

    Anyway I'm happy to hear that mass production will begin

    I don't think the first planes will be completely domestic, as I think as we saw with the auto industry, it's possible that Chinese and even western parts will find their way into the first planes by using the import corridor from Kazakhstan

    But it doesn't matter at this stage, what's important is getting the frames built and then later on you can update them with domestic replacement parts for whatever they need

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:40 pm

    It's good to see lads in charge for sanity while I'm busy on winter holidays Laughing Laughing
    I will take a glass of Gluhwein for you welcome Very Happy

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:44 pm

    lancelot wrote:Russia is currently producing like half a dozen Il-76MD-90A a year. The production facilities can produce like twice that amount.
    They upgrade like one A-50U a year. This basically involves replacing all the electronics inside the aircraft.

    So are there any doubts they could produce one AEW&C aircraft a year if they wanted to?

    I am not disagreeing with you, I'm just saying that if they're going to ramp up production by 600-1000 frames

    That they can easily put several AWACS into service every year

    Look at su57, a whole regiment is already there,

    So who knows? We might see a whole regiment of AWACS before 2030
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    Post  Isos Tue Jan 16, 2024 10:49 pm

    lancelot wrote:Russia is currently producing like half a dozen Il-76MD-90A a year. The production facilities can produce like twice that amount.
    They upgrade like one A-50U a year. This basically involves replacing all the electronics inside the aircraft.

    So are there any doubts they could produce one AEW&C aircraft a year if they wanted to?

    Not the same. Upgrading is far easier than building new ones.

    Also A-100 is way more advanced.

    They could build one or two per year easily if they wanted to but do they want to ?

    Awacs was never a major player for them. Now that they used it to guide s-400 missiles maybe they have more interest in them but ukraine showed it's pretty easy to destroy them on the ground with dumb drones.

    It also require a very trained crew.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Wed Jan 17, 2024 12:59 am

    lancelot wrote:Russia is currently producing like half a dozen Il-76MD-90A a year. The production facilities can produce like twice that amount.
    They upgrade like one A-50U a year. This basically involves replacing all the electronics inside the aircraft.

    So are there any doubts they could produce one AEW&C aircraft a year if they wanted to?
    From what I read previously, Aviastar should be capable of building up to 18 il-76 per year.
    I would like also to see new AEW&C planes based on the Tu-214.

    By the way, why the blogger "fighter bomber" is considered so reliable?

    Furthermore where should the aircraft be fallen? An il-76 (A-50) is that so small to disappear completely, without leaving a trace. Especially mentioning Azov sea does not make sense. It has very shallow depths.

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    Post  JohninMK Wed Jan 17, 2024 1:00 am

    Isos wrote:
    They could build one or two per year easily if they wanted to but do they want to ?

    Awacs was never a major player for them. Now that they used it to guide s-400 missiles maybe they have more interest in them but ukraine showed it's pretty easy to destroy them on the ground with dumb drones.

    It also require a very trained crew.

    Also they are probably well aware of how potentially vulnerable they would be in a fight against NATO.

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Wed Jan 17, 2024 3:14 am

    JohninMK wrote:

    Also they are probably well aware of how potentially vulnerable they would be in a fight against NATO.

    Not if used to supplant the IADS

    NATO uses AWACS to control combat air patrols and to attack enemy air defenses

    That in itself leaves the air group vulnerable to air defenses and Long range interceptors, missiles etc.

    But having a good amount of AWACS to patrol over your IADS basically ensures that coverage is 100%

    There will always be gaps in an IADS, but having multiple layers of awareness is only a good thing

    Especially if Su57 is flying in stealth mode within the coverage of A100 and S400, then you have a kill chain which is very difficult to defeat

    If you are a NATO CAP, and you fly towards this giant AWACS, you think it's defenseless, but at the last minute your RWR starts screaming, and before you even know it your dead because 40n6 swatted you down from above you

    Or, your buddies start going down because R37 is streaking at them from su57 that you never even knew were there

    AWACS has its uses, just like stealth, but only if used in conjunction with a multi layered IADS

    On it's own it would be vulnerable, but the way VKS would use it would make it much stronger as part of a group

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    Post  GarryB Wed Jan 17, 2024 9:08 am

    For what its worth. Why no picture of Austin in his bed with a thumbs up sign? Or no photo of him arriving home, I'm sure it is staked out with camera holding curious people?

    More importantly this is one of the guys with the nuke codes to launch WWIII and would be needed to do his bit to get US missiles in the air.... and for about 2 or 3 days Blinken and Biden didn't know he was off the job... supposedly in Hospital.

    Imagine the shit storm if that happened to North Korea or China or Russia... can't launch your nukes because one of the guys that has to punch his code into the nuclear football can't be found at the moment and no one knows where his is for 3 days.


    Well regardless on the upgrade on TELAR. Buk Battery should be operating together with an early warning/battle management radar. The job of IFF is delegated to 9S18 Radar. The Buk TELAR itself since its inception back in 70's already have a wireless datalink antenna which it can receive designation data. The feature is already there since the beginning.

    If something went wrong then it's either incorrect designation data was provided or the Buk just run loose.

    When a US AWACS aircraft sent two F-15s to investigate and eventually shoot down two American Blackhawk helicopters in Iraq because they thought they were Hinds, it was because the Blackhawks moved from one area to another area without changing their IFF codes which meant they were squawking the wrong signal to appear as friendlies.

    There is a level of complexity that amateurs like us probably don't understand.

    I remember the Israelis used the trick of IFF systems to find and track Arab aircraft... when you spot a target you send a signal and to be identified as friend or foe you respond with corresponding code... get the code right and you are friendly... get it wrong and you are not. The Israelis just squawked signals and used the responses from the enemy aircraft to locate them.

    Then you would have triggered the start of a war that would lead to nuclear war and you are more insane and deranged then any NATO person is.

    Aw come on.... you are claiming the bridges to Crimea are fair game but the HQ of Evil in Kiev cannot be touched because there are Americans in it?

    I would say that should be the first target... they can say they used old maps in the planning.... America would understand that one.


    Also, this is war any russian military assist is fair game and trying to say otherwise is pretty dam stupid.

    So Russian assets are fair game but US structures that created this conflict are off limits or WWIII will start?

    Why not? The US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. It would be fair game if Russia bombed the US embassy in Ukraine.

    More importantly the elimination of that hive of vipers would have more effect on the conflict than murdering some Chinese diplomats ever could.

    That embassy was destroyed because the US feared they might be collecting useful data on the use of US stealth aircraft... in comparison the thousands of people at the US embassy in Kiev seem to be running the country...

    Unlike the US, Russia does not have the balls to bomb the US embassy.

    The US are arseholes but I don't think they would bomb a US embassy... more than once.

    Do not be hyperbolic. Russia had three cruisers like the Moskva. They have like a dozen of these things.
    Right now they don't produce new AWACS aircraft. But they can probably produce like one or two a year.

    This was perhaps a good message for the Navy that old obsolete ships are not what they used to be so you don't save any money not upgrading them and keeping them modern if they can't be used because they are too vulnerable...

    This is an excellent lesson.

    600 planes will be built until 2030

    That is civil production... military production will be in addition to that.

    detach their large payload then return.

    FPV suicide drones are very useful but being able to reuse them over and over makes them vastly more efficient and useful... the difference between using a bomber and a cruise missile.

    Good to see they are using heavy bombs to ensure kills rather than injuries... drones flying over cover looking for targets and monitoring attacks with FPV drones that can chase the enemy everywhere they run...

    Il-114 is already ready for production and they proposed versions for awacs, maritime patrol, Elint, EW jammer, and maritime strike patrol.

    It has enormous potential as an affordable deployable AWACS aircraft, but I also suspect the use of M-55s for recon will expand too...

    No size of AWACS could be considered expendable, but platforms operating at 50km altitude is going to be safe from many things.

    On it's own it would be vulnerable, but the way VKS would use it would make it much stronger as part of a group

    And that is a good point... anything on its own is vulnerable, but a team without AWACS support is less capable and with a greater likelyhood of being surprised than a team with AWACS support.

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    Post  nomadski Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:03 am

    Good points about IFF codes etc . They can be hacked as you say . Therefore another system useful . I remember Iranians wanting to buy from Europe some encryption software for diplomatic communication ! But was it not obvious , that these would be hacked too ? So the suggestion was to conduct sensitive communication in first person only , in open area away from walls of buildings with listening devices and far away from Roads to stop sensitive microphone lasers and directional mics . They said even key press of computer can generate signal to be picked up at distance . One way they were able to hack Iranian computer codes at Nuclear sites ! All communication must be safe ! Prior to flight , safe zone allocated for each plane and escape zone low altitude and landing approach . You can't touch this ! Maybe do a Cuban Embassy " sickness, " microwave in Kiev !?

    Twisted Evil








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    Post  Hole Wed Jan 17, 2024 12:35 pm

    Furthermore where should the aircraft be fallen?
    Some true believers in the Ghost of Kiev active in this forum. lol1

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    Post  LMFS Wed Jan 17, 2024 1:02 pm

    TMA1 wrote:Yeah but an A-50u was still lost.

    Even if it was lost, it is still totally irrelevant. Compare single PR pricks vs strategic and systematic destruction of the industrial and military capabilities of Ukraine, but we are still talking about the former instead of the later, that is the issue...

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