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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:29 am

    If I were one of the shot callers in Russia I would make it clear that if another a-50 gets touched, even by "bird strike", then I would call for the destruction of western elint working for Ukraine even in natosphere countries.

    I think it makes sense to minimise the casualties of the average Ukrainian... except when they put on a uniform and start shooting back, but I think the time of professional courtesy is over and that any HATO advisors in an official or unofficial capacity should be priority targets... they created this war in the first place and their presence is prolonging it so why spare them? It is not like the west spares Russian troops or PMCs anywhere else on the planet.

    Personally I would have hit the US embassy years ago in the middle of the day to wipe out the US infrastructure keeping the Ukraine working and at the same time start the clearing of the rot that has ruined the place to start with... I am hoping they are waiting till the time is right to get all the people they want to get at once but I suspect they are just being nice... which I don't understand in this case because the west and the EU and the US have repeatedly done everything they could to escalate this conflict and to kill Russians and Ukrainians who don't hate Russians.

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    Post  d_taddei2 Tue Jan 16, 2024 9:38 am

    JohninMK wrote:Real desperation. It looks like the strikes hit the right factories.

    Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Mikhail Fedorov, has urged Ukrainians to assemble FPV drones for the Armed Forces of Ukraine at home. Authorities in Kiev believe this will kick-start the mass production of drones.

    The minister advised Ukrainians to undergo free training and assemble drones themselves. According to him, production is now developing, and while companies are gaining momentum, citizens "can personally lead Ukraine to victory, even on the home front". He spoke of one such initiative, the People's Drone project, which involves building 7-inch FPV drones at home.

    While the Ukrainian government steals foreign aid, citizens are encouraged to build drones at home. To each his own.


    @ukraine_watch

    Am waiting for them to tell Ukrainians to start making 152mm, 122mm, artillery shells in their homes. lol!

    Ukraine admitted that the strikes on the 13th destroyed facilities making 122mm, 152mm shells and 125mm tank rounds. Something the west struggles to supply them with.

    Currently it seems the west can now only supply very small quantities of arms and ammo and the largest thing they can supply is money. But even that is nothing more than a sticking plaster.

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:02 am

    Stealthflanker wrote:That's actually terrifying tho. Why that Buk run loose ? Does it not operate in conjunction with higher echelon (e.g 9S18 radar).  Tho also make sense for Buk as the TELAR have NO IFF whatsoever even the latest Buk dont have them.  Why ? emmission security, can't risk the battery being exposed just because it tries to interrogate.
    I don't think a lot of the Buk systems the Russians operate have had serious upgrades done to them. Probably basically operating with Soviet era capabilities. I doubt all of them were upgraded to the Buk M1-2 and M2 variants.

    As for the problem of being unable to interrogate the target that could basically be solved by sending the information on friendly aircraft on a one way encrypted channel which the Buk trailer would passively read without doing any emissions of its own. This would then be overlaid on the radar data and help with target classification.

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:53 am

    For what its worth. Why no picture of Austin in his bed with a thumbs up sign? Or no photo of him arriving home, I'm sure it is staked out with camera holding curious people?

    Peacemaker
    @peacemaket71
    Lloyd Austin...dead? conspiracy?

    According to an FSB agent, Russian intelligence has tracked up to 8 of Austin's trips from Poland to Ukraine since early 2023. “We knew Austin was in the Ukraine and discovered their meeting place.” Twenty cruise missiles, he said, destroyed buildings on the surface and collapsed a labyrinth of interconnected chambers underground. A battle damage assessment revealed that the impact destroyed structures and created craters, leaving only rubble. “Nothing on this earth will survive what we sent. Yes, he is dead. They must be dead," the FSB agent said, adding that the targets were Ukrainian army commanders and Austin was just a bonus.

    The American side described this information as absolute nonsense, since, according to them, Minister Austin is in a hospital in the USA, where he was hospitalized for a urinary tract infection. Even before that, he allegedly underwent prostate surgery.

    Without taking into account the claims of the Russian FSB about Austin's death, there are huge inconsistencies in the American claims and opinions, and suspicion is also raised by the stinginess of specific information, or perhaps a current photo from the hospital bed. For one thing, news of Austin's absence began to trickle out relatively late, with backdating and odd explanations such as that no one knew the US defense secretary was being treated for prostate cancer. From Telegram

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:21 pm

    I hope he is alive. That dude is so stupid. But like Obama he thinks he is the smartest guy in the room.
    His early departure would be a loss for Russia. lol1

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Tue Jan 16, 2024 1:33 pm

    Since there were and are no pictures of the A50, to the rescue of which (fire and smoke at the place), the IL-22 remains, which also came back again. Nevertheless, it should be warning enough and be learned from it.

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    Stealthflanker
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    Post  Stealthflanker Tue Jan 16, 2024 2:15 pm

    lancelot wrote:
    I don't think a lot of the Buk systems the Russians operate have had serious upgrades done to them. Probably basically operating with Soviet era capabilities. I doubt all of them were upgraded to the Buk M1-2 and M2 variants.

    As for the problem of being unable to interrogate the target that could basically be solved by sending the information on friendly aircraft on a one way encrypted channel which the Buk trailer would passively read without doing any emissions of its own. This would then be overlaid on the radar data and help with target classification.

    Well regardless on the upgrade on TELAR. Buk Battery should be operating together with an early warning/battle management radar. The job of IFF is delegated to 9S18 Radar. The Buk TELAR itself since its inception back in 70's already have a wireless datalink antenna which it can receive designation data. The feature is already there since the beginning.

    If something went wrong then it's either incorrect designation data was provided or the Buk just run loose.


    =======
    And regarding the A-50.. well fighterbomber telgram channel finally being open that it's lost. Some other channel claimed it landed but nothing concrete. The final confirmation would probably discovery of aircraft parts beached somewhere along the coast of Crimea or elsewhere.

    If it's really lost tho. it's kinda sign of serious incompetence, like how the hell people down there cant identify a lumbering A-50 which clearly have so much different signature than whatever Ukraine have. or did the VKS aerospace and air defense unit just dont talk to eachother, which itself is insanity of its own.
    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:19 pm

    If fighterbomber confirmed it, it's gone.
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:19 pm

    Stealthflanker wrote:


    =======
    And regarding the A-50.. well fighterbomber telgram channel finally being open that it's lost. Some other channel claimed it landed but nothing concrete.  The final confirmation would probably discovery of aircraft parts beached somewhere along the coast of Crimea or elsewhere.

    If it's really lost tho. it's kinda sign of serious incompetence, like how the hell people down there cant identify a lumbering A-50 which clearly have so much different signature than whatever Ukraine have. or did the VKS aerospace and air defense unit just dont talk to eachother, which itself is insanity of its own.

    Unfortunately it would seem so, although no evidence as of yet, but if it was shot down, I doubt the MOD wants any pictures made public

    Anyway it's sad, and there's a lot of speculation

    On one hand it is said to be a failure of unified commands of the PVO and the VKS which led to a friendly fire incident

    On the other, bold claims about Patriot and some kind of deceptive tactics used

    Without evidence , it's pointless to speculate, but it would be very very disappointing that these issues persist across the front
    thegopnik
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    Post  thegopnik Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:59 pm



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    Post  Karl Haushofer Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:19 pm

    TMA1 wrote:Do not trust it. Frankly if there was any natosphere involvement then missiles should hit at least two elint aircraft the west is flying bear the conflict zone. And no I do not mean a drone. I mean the top tier stuff. In fact it is time Russia poked NATO in both eyes.

    Then let them do what they want. Tit for that on any horseshit they pulled.

    Russian red lines have been crossed too many times already. The NATO knows Russia will not do anything no matter how many red lines are crossed.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:36 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    If I were one of the shot callers in Russia I would make it clear that if another a-50 gets touched, even by "bird strike", then I would call for the destruction of western elint working for Ukraine even in natosphere countries.

    I think it makes sense to minimise the casualties of the average Ukrainian... except when they put on a uniform and start shooting back, but I think the time of professional courtesy is over and that any HATO advisors in an official or unofficial capacity should be priority targets... they created this war in the first place and their presence is prolonging it so why spare them? It is not like the west spares Russian troops or PMCs anywhere else on the planet.

    Personally I would have hit the US embassy years ago in the middle of the day to wipe out the US infrastructure keeping the Ukraine working and at the same time start the clearing of the rot that has ruined the place to start with... I am hoping they are waiting till the time is right to get all the people they want to get at once but I suspect they are just being nice... which I don't understand in this case because the west and the EU and the US have repeatedly done everything they could to escalate this conflict and to kill Russians and Ukrainians who don't hate Russians.


    Then you would have triggered the start of a war that would lead to nuclear war and you are more insane and deranged then any NATO person is.

    Also, this is war any russian military assist is fair game and trying to say otherwise is pretty dam stupid.
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    Post  Belisarius Tue Jan 16, 2024 4:50 pm

    If fighterbomber confirmed it, it's gone.
    Fighterbomber exaggerated the scale of the damage from Ukraine's attack on the airfield near Rostov. They claimed that Ukraine shot down a Su-34 at the end of last year and so far no concrete evidence has been presented they even lied about a Russian pilot being killed in Voronezh, Fighterbomber confirmations prove nothing.

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    thegopnik
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    Post  thegopnik Tue Jan 16, 2024 5:04 pm

    damn it, it seems my post failed to segway the thread back to the war at hand then talking about the 2 aircrafts the entire time.

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    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Tue Jan 16, 2024 5:16 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Then you would have triggered the start of a war that would lead to nuclear war and you are more insane and deranged then any NATO person is.
    Also, this is war any russian military assist is fair game and trying to say otherwise is pretty dam stupid.
    Why not? The US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. It would be fair game if Russia bombed the US embassy in Ukraine.

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    Post  Arrow Tue Jan 16, 2024 5:18 pm

    Why not? The US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. It would be fair game if Russia bombed the US embassy. wrote:

    Unlike the US, Russia does not have the balls to bomb the US embassy.
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    Post  SolidarityWithRussia Tue Jan 16, 2024 5:45 pm

    Did Russia really loose its A-50 AWACS aircraft? That would be horrible news. I think even worse than the loss of the Moskwa.
    Yesterday I listened to Alexander Mercouris podcast. I did not pay too much attention when he talked about the claims that some Russian planes were shot down, because I did not know he was talking about high value targets, but afaik he doubts that the claims are true.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:03 pm

    Arrow wrote:

    Unlike the US, Russia does not have the balls to bomb the US embassy.

    Maybe they have out of date maps like NATO had of Belgrade, showing the Kiev embassy to be a warehouse and the main TV site to be a military repeater. Very Happy

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:34 pm

    Ukrainian statehood could soon suffer serious blow – Putin

    Kiev bears full responsibility for the situation in which it finds itself, the Russian president said

    The president said Kiev’s offensive had not only catastrophically failed, but all the initiative on the battlefield had also ended up with the Russian forces.

    “If things carry on this way, Ukrainian statehood could be dealt an irreparable and very serious blow,” warned Putin, arguing that Kiev was fully responsible for this situation, which was a direct consequence of its policies and decisions.

    ----

    There you go, the Czar announces the results of his victory come the March elections,

    There will most likely be another mobilization come March/April

    That would allow to station reserve armies from the current springboards of offensive operations

    Releasing the 1st GTA, 49th, 58th, and several other armies to commence the liberation of new Ukrainian regions  

    It just sucks we have to wait for the bureaucracy to finalize these undertakings, but better late than never

    Remember Putin said, we would conduct mobilization only if it was necessary to revisit Kiev

    It sounds like he is alluding to this near operation,

    And you have NATO screaming about renewed Russian offensives at exactly the same time

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    zorobabel
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    Post  zorobabel Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:39 pm

    Belisarius wrote:
    If fighterbomber confirmed it, it's gone.
    Fighterbomber exaggerated the scale of the damage from Ukraine's attack on the airfield near Rostov. They claimed that Ukraine shot down a Su-34 at the end of last year and so far no concrete evidence has been presented they even lied about a Russian pilot being killed in Voronezh, Fighterbomber confirmations prove nothing.
    What is your source for these refutations?

    As far as I know, not a single Fighterbomber claim has proven incorrect. Even more so, he and his sources have acknowledged every real (not dumb NATO claim) loss before Western satellite imagery confirmed it.
    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:58 pm

    Are you guys aware, of the Global Predictor?

    In Russia, we use the term Global Predictor as a catch all term for global elite

    The global Predictor, is who we understand , ultimately makes decisions for the world

    It is a united consensus of global elites

    No, these elites are not at Davos, or at western forums- these are only some of the GP, but we do not believe that GP is a monolith - some kind of united voice

    The reason most analysis of current politics is wrong, is because people are unaware of who the global Predictor really is

    They are German elites, Brazilians, Russians, Chinese, Indians, Africans, Latin Americans, American executives of industry, gas, oil, even Elon Musk himself is part of the GP

    It is these elites who are upsetting the goals of American country elites

    *Remember Musk is a South African multinational

    Please educate yourself on these factors, to better understand the trajectory of 2024
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:17 pm

    zorobabel wrote:
    Belisarius wrote:
    If fighterbomber confirmed it, it's gone.
    Fighterbomber exaggerated the scale of the damage from Ukraine's attack on the airfield near Rostov. They claimed that Ukraine shot down a Su-34 at the end of last year and so far no concrete evidence has been presented they even lied about a Russian pilot being killed in Voronezh, Fighterbomber confirmations prove nothing.
    What is your source for these refutations?

    As far as I know, not a single Fighterbomber claim has proven incorrect. Even more so, he and his sources have acknowledged every real (not dumb NATO claim) loss before Western satellite imagery confirmed it.

    Some schoolyard level "logic" there. Nobody has supplied any evidence but you are demanding that skeptics prove a negative.

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    Post  kvs Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:24 pm



    It's all propaganda theater and the usual concern trolls are out polluting this thread.

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    Odin of Ossetia
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    Post  Odin of Ossetia Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:48 pm

    Odin of Ossetia wrote:
    ArgentinaGuard wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:I think that there is around another 200k in the UK.

    EU hosts 4.27 million Ukrainian refugees - Eurostat.

    The largest number of Ukrainians in:

    Germany - 1,235,960 (28.9 per cent);
    Poland - 955 110 (22.3 per cent)
    Czech Republic - 369 330 (8.6 per cent).

    In fact, this is only half the truth. Most Ukrainians have fled to Russia. And there are 5.3 million of them!


    @ukraine_watch

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 23 GDyqTbRW4AAZyzR?format=jpg&name=small
    Have you seen any Ukrainians in England?



    The map is very misleading:


    1) The number of them in Poland is very under-reported. They have been coming to Poland in more significant numbers since at least 2014.

    2) There are more than a few of them in the U.K.

    3) And what about the Netherlands?





    There are 3.5 - 4.0 millions of foreigners living in Poland, 60-75% are Ukrainians.


    https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/9307688,liczba-imigrantow-w-polsce-to-ok-35-4-mln-z-czego-60-75-proc-stano.html


    Article is from late September of 2023.




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    Post  TMA1 Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:52 pm

    Dont think this was friendly fire. I think it was a desperation attack with help from the west in revenge for multiple things. When it comes to something like this, the west does need to be smacked in the face for it. The problem is that Russia is not yet ready to move in some bold stroke. So attacking western intelligence aircraft would be premature.

    Still I think it should happen. Make no mistake if the Ukrainians (obviously aided by the west) did this it was a desperation move. It worked. If Russia retaliates the west will symmetrically respond. The western leadership are full of women who only know power games like a 40yo wine mom escalating in bad behavior with her delinquent son. Our leaders over here are no different. They think true leadership is always being percieved as being on top. Note I said percieved. They only think in optics. They cannot empathize they can only react. They want Russia to reply to their moves rashly because they want an excuse to further the conflict. Again it is all power games to them. If you lived with them you would understand. Jan 6th, the Canadian truckers, now the German farmers. They silence the media on the truth, and use the media as their propaganda outlet for what they so want said. They then make it their personal business to attack those involved in any protests. Thry are petty, and will use and abuse to get their way.

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