Russia Defence Forum

Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Military Forum for Russian and Global Defence Issues


+58
Ned86
PhSt
Scorpius
The-thing-next-door
LMFS
SolidarityWithRussia
Stealthflanker
Karl Haushofer
marcellogo
calripson
Airbornewolf
franco
ArgentinaGuard
Odin of Ossetia
dionis
Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E
par far
lancelot
Firebird
mr_hd
Rasisuki Nebia
Big_Gazza
ucmvulcan
DerWolf
Rodion_Romanovic
TMA1
Lapain
RTN
Krepost
kvs
Backman
Belisarius
lyle6
teh_beard
d_taddei2
sepheronx
thegopnik
Isos
Pacense
Tolstoy
ALAMO
nomadski
Pincus Shain
Walther von Oldenburg
Regular
Arrow
Sujoy
Kiko
Hole
VARGR198
JohninMK
pavi
zorobabel
Mir
SeigSoloyvov
PapaDragon
mnztr
GarryB
62 posters

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    avatar
    calripson


    Posts : 743
    Points : 798
    Join date : 2013-10-26

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty You Don't Understand Bond Markets at All

    Post  calripson Sat Jan 13, 2024 12:54 pm

    mnztr wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:You know this issue with seizing funds of Russia is interesting

    In many ways it would be good if the west did it

    Imagine for a second that 300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserves denominated in euro and dollars are just seized by the west

    What reaction would it spark for China? Saudi Arabia? India?

    Imagine the Arab world now in this situation with Israel

    Imagine China and Taiwan or the Uyghurs

    Imagine India has some issue with Sikh minorities or is blamed for assassinating some Sikh living in Canada or the US like they are now

    So anytime the US presses its competitors geopolitically, can they just steal your money ?

    It would cause a panic to get your assets out of the west

    And this would be the next hammer to dollar hegemony


    When I look at this I realize people (including myself) did not have a good understanding of foreign reserves. If you wanted to move 100B of foreign reserves into an alternatve currency, its just simply NOT POSSIBLE. Foreign reserves are held mostly in treasury bills. Tbills represent an obligation of the US govt. i.e they are US debt. No other country has available that volume of debt that can replace Tbills. And TBILLs are time dated and cannot be converted to cash on demand. So they need to be sold on the secondary market. Plus the FED has 7.9T in tbills it absorbed during QE, so the fed can essentially block any Tbill liquidation by any nation by undercutting their sales.

    The average daily trading volume in US Treasuries is over $500 billion. They can easily be converted into cash on the secondary market. $100 billion could be liquidated in a week. Quantitative easing occurs via the Fed expanding its balance sheet meaning they are injecting liquidity via purchasing bonds making easier to get out of treasuries. 41% of existing global debt is US based but there are other large sovereign debt markets - China the equivalent of $11.5 trillion, India the equivalent of $1.8 trillion, ect.

    GarryB, franco, JohninMK and jon_deluxe like this post

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 39209
    Points : 39707
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  GarryB Sat Jan 13, 2024 3:04 pm

    I doubt that Iran and NK run climate controlled ammo dumps.

    If they were that stupid the US wouldn't have so many ongoing problems with both countries... climate controlled ammo dumps are not rocket science and anyway... both countries have plenty of rocket scientists.

    I would say the entire stories are designed to discredit Russia by pretending they are running out of shells, but also discredit Iran and North Korea by pretending they can't make decent weapons, or that they are not to be trusted and would double cross Russia in this day an age.

    (When Russian and British forces invaded Iran around WWII I could see them not being friendly with them of course).

    That stupid humanism can make you lose a war. Russia is to be feared. His name must strike terror into the minds of the West. And if the Ukrainians suffer, they should carry out a coup d'état against their government and sit down to negotiate with Putin.

    When this conflict is over most of the people most touched by this conflict will be living within the Russian Federation so murdering them all just to appear strong and tough like the west does would be very counterproductive.

    Of course if Poland or a Baltic state wants to have a go and cross into Ukrainian territory or try to blockade Kaliningrad then Russia can be brutally merciless...

    Their use on the front where AD can't survive very long and have radars off means 100% Pk for the bombs.

    The irony is that it wouldn't be terribly hard to add passive radar homing to the glide kits and fit them to FAB-20 because a direct hit on an AD radar you don't need a 1.5 ton bomb... you have C4ISTAR assets listening for signals and when you glide bombs take out the radar you mark the site and send a dozen heavy bombs to bracket that target area to get any missile launchers or support equipment.

    You could probably modify old model AAMs for the job and put them in some of your bigger drones... they probably have warehouses with R-3s and R-13s (ie AA-2 Atoll Sidewinder copies)... fit an anti radiation seeker in the nose or modify the radar homing sensor of the SARH models and every time a Gepard starts to fire you could launch a few AA-2s at them from high altitude for next to nothing... you are going to want high flying drones flying around the place watching anyway so putting a couple of small missiles on there would be useful... especially near Odessa or Kiev.

    It would cause a panic to get your assets out of the west

    And this would be the next hammer to dollar hegemony

    Very true but equally as importantly I am sure there are lots of western assets in Russia that Putin would like control of for the benefit of Russia and Russians and so in response Russia could seize useful stuff... they can pick and choose... and do the most damage to the right people if you know what I mean.

    Are you sure? the APU alone produces 450 KW.

    Which is .45 Megawatts. If the Growler can generate 10 Megawatts then screw wasting time with jammers... fit a damn laser to the thing... it would be awesome.

    That cockroach Magnitsky, the corrupt accountant working for criminal Browder, died in jail of heart complications.

    Actually I think Magnitsky was doing some investigating of his own and Browder probably had him killed so he didn't give away incriminating evidence against Browder because Magnitsky probably knew where all the bodies were buried... heart complications can be faked rather easily.... in fact they call it heart medication...

    Lira was an honest, independent commentator who was persecuted for his opinion.

    Indeed, his crime was being honest and forming views based on the information available to him after a bit of critical thinking. Something the western news media don't even understand any more let alone respect or try to protect.

    Which is why the west is broken and will not get better any time soon.

    The average daily trading volume in US Treasuries is over $500 billion.

    I am sure the US would be very happy if the G7 unanimously decided to help the Ukraine by putting all 300 billion US dollars worth of Russian assets into US debt... so in five years or 10 years it will be a gold mine (for someone else), or gone.

    kvs, JohninMK, jon_deluxe and Belisarius like this post

    avatar
    mnztr


    Posts : 2796
    Points : 2834
    Join date : 2018-01-22

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  mnztr Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:42 pm

    calripson wrote:
    mnztr wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:You know this issue with seizing funds of Russia is interesting

    In many ways it would be good if the west did it

    Imagine for a second that 300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserves denominated in euro and dollars are just seized by the west

    What reaction would it spark for China? Saudi Arabia? India?

    Imagine the Arab world now in this situation with Israel

    Imagine China and Taiwan or the Uyghurs

    Imagine India has some issue with Sikh minorities or is blamed for assassinating some Sikh living in Canada or the US like they are now

    So anytime the US presses its competitors geopolitically, can they just steal your money ?

    It would cause a panic to get your assets out of the west

    And this would be the next hammer to dollar hegemony


    When I look at this I realize people (including myself) did not have a good understanding of foreign reserves. If you wanted to move 100B of foreign reserves into an alternatve currency, its just simply NOT POSSIBLE. Foreign reserves are held mostly in treasury bills. Tbills represent an obligation of the US govt. i.e they are US debt. No other country has available that volume of debt that can replace Tbills. And TBILLs are time dated and cannot be converted to cash on demand. So they need to be sold on the secondary market. Plus the FED has 7.9T in tbills it absorbed during QE, so the fed can essentially block any Tbill liquidation by any nation by undercutting their sales.

    The average daily trading volume in US Treasuries is over $500 billion. They can easily be converted into cash on the secondary market. $100 billion could be liquidated in a week. Quantitative easing occurs via the Fed expanding its balance sheet meaning they are injecting liquidity via purchasing bonds making easier to get out of treasuries. 41% of existing global debt is US based but there are other large sovereign debt markets - China the equivalent of $11.5 trillion, India the equivalent of $1.8 trillion, ect.


    These are institutional exchanges and often the fed trading with fed proxies, primary dealers trading with the fed. Its not as liquid and transsparent as you think. Chinas external debt is only 2.4T USD. So you cannot replace hundreds of billions in reserves in RMB overnight, 1% of the RBM debt market is massive. many nations finance large of debt domestically to protect their markets. securities in large tranches are not just dumped on the market they are sold gradually. Typically through derivatives. you can dump them but that would crash the market and net you a poor price. If the treassury market was so liquid why does the Fed stil have 7.9T in bonds on its balance sheet and why does the market start to tank even when it tries to sell a few hundred billion over a few months?

    Big_Gazza likes this post

    avatar
    mnztr


    Posts : 2796
    Points : 2834
    Join date : 2018-01-22

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  mnztr Sat Jan 13, 2024 5:53 pm

    ArgentinaGuard wrote:
    mnztr wrote:
    ArgentinaGuard wrote:
    mnztr wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:I am watching the ICJ case against Israel presented by South Africa



    It's too late. By mid-2024, they should ask Biden for passports because Russia is going to occupy the country.


    there is that question for sure. And it will be interesting to see if there is any benefit for Russia when they occupy Ukraine. But hitstory has shown that bombing the crap out of the civvies only hardens resolve. That has almost always been the case. Just look at Staingrad.

    I can give you other examples like Cartago,Tenochtitlan, Hiroshima and Berlin

    It all depends on the strength of the people.
    I have no doubt that you will not defeat the Russians by bombing their cities, but you can subdue other inferior or decadent nations.

    Berlin fought to the last brick, nuclear attacks are not a viable option for Russia in this case so that is not relevant. Sieges do work if they are airtight. Shut of kievs water and they will surrender 2 weeks. ...but you will have to poison all the water bodies in the city. Politically not viable. For some reason the laws of war allow you to kill people outright but forbid depriving them of sustenance to obtain their peaceful surrender.

    GarryB likes this post

    GarryB
    GarryB


    Posts : 39209
    Points : 39707
    Join date : 2010-03-30
    Location : New Zealand

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  GarryB Sat Jan 13, 2024 7:32 pm

    People... can we stop posting entire conversations...

    It is not hard to delete extra quotes...

    Big_Gazza and Mir like this post

    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov


    Posts : 3724
    Points : 3704
    Join date : 2016-04-09

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:18 pm

    Realistically you would not need to poison the supply, They could never get enough food once encircled.


    You wound need to blast speakers and drop pamphlets inside basically saying "come here and surrender and you Will not be harmed"

    Then invite every foreign news outlet you can and show them you have setup corridors to allow people to leave.
    Rodion_Romanovic
    Rodion_Romanovic


    Posts : 2452
    Points : 2619
    Join date : 2015-12-31
    Location : Merkelland

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:30 pm

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Realistically you would not need to poison the supply, They could never get enough food once encircled.


    You wound need to blast speakers and drop pamphlets inside basically saying "come here and surrender and you Will not be harmed"

    Then invite every foreign news outlet you can and show them you have setup corridors to allow people to leave.
    And in this case having avoided large civilian casualties till now is a benefit. Furthermore since it is basically a russian civil war the majority of the people in the large Ukrainian cities (in the east and center) (except for a minority of neonazi and war criminals) know that the other army is made by people with similar culture and who speak the same language and that the russian army will not send them to the front to fight.

    This should be already a good incentive.

    Big_Gazza and kvs like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14864
    Points : 15003
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:35 pm

    mnztr wrote:

    When I look at this I realize people (including myself) did not have a good understanding of foreign reserves. If you wanted to move 100B of foreign reserves into an alternatve currency, its just simply NOT POSSIBLE. Foreign reserves are held mostly in treasury bills. Tbills represent an obligation of the US govt. i.e they are US debt. No other country has available that volume of debt that can replace Tbills. And TBILLs are time dated and cannot be converted to cash on demand. So they need to be sold on the secondary market. Plus the FED has 7.9T in tbills it absorbed during QE, so the fed can essentially block any Tbill liquidation by any nation by undercutting their sales.

    Surely the US Gov just cancels those 'Russian' T Bills eliminating that debt and issues new $ to use as required?
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14864
    Points : 15003
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:45 pm

    GarryB wrote:
    You could probably modify old model AAMs for the job and put them in some of your bigger drones... they probably have warehouses with R-3s and R-13s (ie AA-2 Atoll Sidewinder copies)... fit an anti radiation seeker in the nose or modify the radar homing sensor of the SARH models and every time a Gepard starts to fire you could launch a few AA-2s at them from high altitude for next to nothing... you are going to want high flying drones flying around the place watching anyway so putting a couple of small missiles on there would be useful... especially near Odessa or Kiev.

    In some ways a bit like the West (and Houtis) repurposing their AAM into a SAM.

    Its possible or probable? that a Gepard wasn't designed to allow rapid protection against incoming anti radiation missiles.
    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14864
    Points : 15003
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:48 pm

    Speaking truth to power is often fatal, as he expected.

    RIP

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 GDqUt8VXUAADHO-?format=jpg&name=small

    d_taddei2, Big_Gazza, kvs, VARGR198, LMFS, Hole and Mir like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14864
    Points : 15003
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:49 pm

    Summary of military operations in Ukraine from the Russian telegram channel “Two Majors” on the morning of January 13, 2024.

    In the evening, the Russian Armed Forces launched missile strikes and Geranium UAVs. Explosions were heard in Kyiv, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Sumy and Kherson regions. By morning, the enemy announced 10 of our Tu-95MS strategic bombers in the air in the area of the launch lines; after 6:00 they reported the launch of air-launched missiles. In addition to our strategic bombers already in the air, the enemy announces the takeoff of 5 Tu-22M3. Powerful explosions in Dnepropetrovsk. The use of hypersonic "Daggers" is reported. Explosions have already occurred in the Nikolaev region, Kremenchug and Poltava region. Explosions have now occurred in the Ivano-Frankivsk region. Chaos in enemy monitoring channels and reports of missiles flying in different directions may indicate the use of decoys by the Russian Army.

    In the Kherson direction, the movement of small enemy landing groups on boats on the water is hampered by freezing areas of the water surface. The Russian Armed Forces have concentrated their efforts on destroying enemy personnel and watercraft from the air; at subzero temperatures in the wind, it is almost impossible to survive in the water.

    On the Zaporozhye Front, combat operations took place in the Rabotino-Novoprokopovka-Verbovoe area, our aviation with FAB and UMPC were used. More and more frames are getting into the network with ready-to-use and already installed on FAB-1500 and ODAB-1500 aircraft. In the Nesteryanka area (west of Rabotino, a new direction in which offensive operations have been intensified), they report the tactical success of units of the Russian Armed Forces, which took the enemy’s positions in battle after artillery preparation.

    In the Marinka area, the Russian Armed Forces are conducting offensive operations in the direction of Kurakhovo in Georgievka, to the south our units have expanded the zone of control at the Zverinets fortified area, and the battle at Novomikhailovka continues.

    In the Avdeevsky direction, the Russian Armed Forces advanced to the southern ledge of the front near Pervomaisky. Fighting also continues near Stepovoye and east of the coke plant on the territory of gardening partnerships.

    https://t.me/vicktop55/20189

    d_taddei2, Big_Gazza, kvs, Hole and Mir like this post

    Arkanghelsk
    Arkanghelsk


    Posts : 3676
    Points : 3682
    Join date : 2021-12-09

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  Arkanghelsk Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:50 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    mnztr wrote:

    When I look at this I realize people (including myself) did not have a good understanding of foreign reserves. If you wanted to move 100B of foreign reserves into an alternatve currency, its just simply NOT POSSIBLE. Foreign reserves are held mostly in treasury bills. Tbills represent an obligation of the US govt. i.e they are US debt. No other country has available that volume of debt that can replace Tbills. And TBILLs are time dated and cannot be converted to cash on demand. So they need to be sold on the secondary market. Plus the FED has 7.9T in tbills it absorbed during QE, so the fed can essentially block any Tbill liquidation by any nation by undercutting their sales.

    Surely the US Gov just cancels those 'Russian' T Bills eliminating that debt and issues new $ to use as required?

    John noone holds Tbills, that guy mzntr doesn't make sense

    Foreign exchange reserves are liquid currency

    They don't get swapped, they are just foreign denominated currency held in a depository

    Not many states holds Tbills except for China and Japan,  which are US debt

    But Russia doesn't own US debt, it has currency denominated in USD, which is liquid and available to spend but the main holdings are in euros

    Thats the whole point of foreign exchange reserves

    If the US seizes the money held in the depositories of the Russian central bank

    Russia will seize western assets in Russia, like it did with Danone, Carlsberg, McDonald's, Nissan

    And all other plants which are western held but which got suspended in February

    Right now the juiciest assets to seize are the voter stake in all the LNG plants that have ownership by wintershall, energie, shell, exxon, money held in C accounts used by western investors that were speculating on the MICEX and OFZ bonds, Pepsi and other food retailer as well as their IP, and the list goes on

    Taking the euros of Russia wouldn't be so bad, it would hurt the dollar, and Russia would nationalize further remaining western assets in Russia
    lancelot
    lancelot


    Posts : 2720
    Points : 2718
    Join date : 2020-10-18

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  lancelot Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:04 pm

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Right now the juiciest assets to seize are the voter stake in all the LNG plants that have ownership by wintershall, energie, shell, exxon, money held in C accounts used by western investors that were speculating on the MICEX and OFZ bonds, Pepsi and other food retailer as well as their IP, and the list goes on
    Those natural gas power plants using gas turbines will basically be scrap iron in a couple years. Without parts and maintenance from Siemens and GE they will be worthless.

    But there is quite a lot of stuff that the Russian state can confiscate. From foreign shares in the oil & gas fields, to foreign shares in Gazprom and Rosneft, etc.

    kvs, JohninMK and Mir like this post

    triphosgene dislikes this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14864
    Points : 15003
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:07 pm

    d_taddei2, Big_Gazza, kvs, nomadski, LMFS, Hole, Mir and Belisarius like this post

    avatar
    ALAMO


    Posts : 6866
    Points : 6958
    Join date : 2014-11-26

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  ALAMO Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:15 pm

    So we have here a combination of microphones that are set to triangulate the location of enemy's artillery, combined with a command post that operates a mast mounted optical tracking system that locates blasts.

    Big_Gazza, kvs, JohninMK and Mir like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14864
    Points : 15003
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:30 pm

    The Russian aerial assault is just relentless.

    Zlatti71
    @djuric_zlatko
    Important news for Saturday morning, January 13:

    In the morning, a powerful missile attack was carried out against the Ukrainian Armed Forces' targets in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian resources, 6 TU-95ms aircraft, 6 TU-22M3 aircraft, 5 MiG-31K aircraft, ballistics from Crimea, and an unspecified number of SU-34/SU-35 aircraft were operating.

    d_taddei2, Big_Gazza, kvs, Hole and Mir like this post

    JohninMK
    JohninMK


    Posts : 14864
    Points : 15003
    Join date : 2015-06-16
    Location : England

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  JohninMK Sat Jan 13, 2024 10:38 pm

    NATO expects a protracted war in Ukraine, - Deputy Secretary General of the Alliance

    ▪ “We should prepare for the fact that the war between Russia and Ukraine will last for a long time and may not end even in 2025. We do not see military potential anywhere to be able to win a decisive victory in one way or another,” said the NATO Deputy Secretary General.
    ▪Mircea Joane explained that the Alliance expects a protracted war with small offensives, counter-offensives, conquest and loss of territory.
    ▪ “Under no circumstances do we see the conditions and will not be able to accept Russia returning to the Romanian border,” Joane concluded.
    - RVvoenkor

    kvs likes this post

    Kiko
    Kiko


    Posts : 2887
    Points : 2933
    Join date : 2020-11-12
    Age : 75
    Location : Brasilia

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  Kiko Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:04 pm

    Volodymir is a die-hard:

    Zelensky is not going to die, by Gevorg Mirzayan for VZGLYAD. 01.13.2024.

    If Zelensky remains in power in a conflict with everyone (as is now happening), then relations between the West and Ukraine will further deteriorate, and Europe and even the United States will continue to accumulate fatigue from the Kyiv regime. This means that it will be possible to achieve victory in the SVO faster.

    President of Ukraine Zelensky is greeting 2024, of course, in a surprising way. In complete contrast to the 2023 meeting. Then, after the successful actions of the Kyiv regime in the Kharkov and Kherson directions, Vladimir Zelensky basked in the rays of glory and recognition. The entire Western world applauded him, American and European journalists praised him for “defeating Russia,” but his domestic political opponents sat quietly and did not speak up.

    However, over the 12 months of 2023, a whole series of Zelensky’s mistakes (a failed counter-offensive, too aggressive rhetoric, an inability to properly manage Western money) and factors beyond his control (the distraction of the West’s attention to the Middle East, the fatigue of the American and European population from helping Ukraine, Moscow’s resistance to face of sanctions and President Putin’s readiness to go to the end in ensuring Russia’s security) seriously undermined the position of the leader of the Kyiv regime. Some even say that these mistakes and factors killed President Zelensky - naturally in a political sense.

    It would seem that rumors of political death (or at least a dying state) are not exaggerated. After all, the internal opponents of the Ukrainian president, who always know how to keep their nose to the wind, have already become more active. Former President Petro Poroshenko began lobbying his person before Western partners (claiming to be Zelensky’s successor). The leader of the Batkivshchyna party, Yulia Tymoshenko, came out of political retirement in order to score political points by opposing the law on mobilization. And the mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Klitschko, not only publicly supported commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny (who has a conflict with Zelensky), but also actually accused the current head of state of fraud. “Of course, we can lie to our people and our partners in euphoria. But you can’t do this forever,” he said.

    However, the problem is that it is too early to bury Zelensky. Yes, his situation is very difficult - but he does not intend to give up, much less resign. Partly based on their own ambitions (not a single actor, after such an impressive leading role in a global production, would want to voluntarily give it up - much less give it up to the previous star Petro Poroshenko, whom Zelensky beat with such pathos in the presidential elections), and partly because he has real tools to maintain power.

    Firstly, Zelensky is capable of blackmailing Western leaders. Taking advantage of his not completely faded image of a fighter for goodness and justice (which the Western media created for him), the head of the Kyiv regime can accuse Western leaders of betrayal, and thereby create internal political problems for them. After all, despite the growing fatigue of the Western electorate from the Ukrainian adventure, a significant part of the Western establishment still wants victory in Ukraine, where they have already invested so much money. And Zelensky can show them who will ruin their investments.

    At the same time, it will not be possible to completely de-heroise Zelensky. Information attacks on him, not to mention the release of compromising material, will lead to discrediting the entire image of a warring Ukraine (to which the Western media have again tied Zelensky).

    Secondly, Zelensky as a super-hawk (opposing any negotiations with Moscow) is of interest to part of the American and British elite. Those who fundamentally refuse any concessions to Russia and with fanatical tenacity are ready to hope that through Ukraine they will still be able to inflict a strategic defeat on Moscow. Well, or (as the same British think) through a protracted conflict and at the cost of the complete destruction of Ukraine, weaken both Russia and Europe as much as possible. Therefore, they will continue to bet on Zelensky and support him to the end.

    Thirdly, Zelensky and his team now control financial flows - money that flows into Ukraine - not only for military spending, but also for the provision of the social sphere (the Ukrainian budget deficit now exceeds 50%). Accordingly, the supply and kickback schemes (which Zelensky’s team pays to external sponsors) are well established, and changing them now would cause chaos and confusion.

    Fourthly, replacing Zelensky will now lead to chaos within the Ukrainian political elite. After all, there is no single opposition figure who can be taken and, with the consensus of the elites, transplanted into the presidential chair. Yes, Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny is popular among the people - but he has neither political experience nor relevant connections.

    Finally, fifthly, how can Zelensky be technically removed if he does not want to leave voluntarily? This can be done through elections - but he himself canceled them under the pretext that elections cannot be held during a war. This can be done through the liquidation of Zelensky (and then say that the evil Russians killed him) - however, there is no doubt that the Kiev leader calculated this option and made his murder inappropriate. For example, through the threat that in this case some serious dirt on Western partners will come to light.
    Therefore, with a high degree of probability, we can assume that Zelensky will not give up his post. That he will hold on to it until the last Ukrainian.

    As for Russia’s interests, Moscow benefits from Zelensky’s current political life. The funeral will lead to the fact that a more cunning politician will come in his place, who can seriously complicate the process of liberating Russian territories for us. And which, of course, will not have that foul-smelling political baggage that Zelensky is now burdened with.

    If Zelensky remains in power in a conflict with everyone (as is now happening), then relations between the West and Ukraine will further deteriorate, and Europe and even the United States will continue to accumulate fatigue from the Kyiv regime. This means it will be possible to achieve victory in the SVO faster.

    https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/1/13/1248241.html

    franco, Big_Gazza, Lapain, Hole and Mir like this post

    kvs
    kvs


    Posts : 15211
    Points : 15348
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Turdope's Kanada

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  kvs Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:26 pm

    ALAMO wrote:So we have here a combination of microphones that are set to triangulate the location of enemy's artillery, combined with a command post that operates a mast mounted optical tracking system that locates blasts.

    But according to NATzO propaganda, civilians subjected to Ukr shelling can't tell which direction shells come from and that it is the Russians shelling themselves.
    The Doppler effect does not exist in NATzO propaganda when needed.



    ALAMO, Hole and Mir like this post

    kvs
    kvs


    Posts : 15211
    Points : 15348
    Join date : 2014-09-11
    Location : Turdope's Kanada

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  kvs Sat Jan 13, 2024 11:27 pm

    JohninMK wrote:NATO expects a protracted war in Ukraine, - Deputy Secretary General of the Alliance

    ▪ “We should prepare for the fact that the war between Russia and Ukraine will last for a long time and may not end even in 2025. We do not see military potential anywhere to be able to win a decisive victory in one way or another,” said the NATO Deputy Secretary General.
    ▪Mircea Joane explained that the Alliance expects a protracted war with small offensives, counter-offensives, conquest and loss of territory.
    ▪ “Under no circumstances do we see the conditions and will not be able to accept Russia returning to the Romanian border,” Joane concluded.
    - RVvoenkor

    NATzO wants a protracted war. NATzO deciders have a hard time distinguishing between their wishes and reality.

    Big_Gazza, LMFS and Hole like this post

    SeigSoloyvov
    SeigSoloyvov


    Posts : 3724
    Points : 3704
    Join date : 2016-04-09

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:09 am

    I mean if the Russians keep going at this speed it won't end by 2025.

    The lengths of this war depends on them
    Rodion_Romanovic
    Rodion_Romanovic


    Posts : 2452
    Points : 2619
    Join date : 2015-12-31
    Location : Merkelland

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:22 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:I mean if the Russians keep going at this speed it won't end by 2025.

    The lengths of this war depends on them
    It depends if there will be a collapse or not at one point.
    Can Ukraine continue with this for 2 years?
    Russia can.
    I believe at a certain point there will be a quick collapse and/ or the same Ukrainian people will refuse to be sent to the meatgrinder.
    We just have not reached that "tipping point".

    d_taddei2, Big_Gazza, Hole and Mir like this post

    Arkanghelsk
    Arkanghelsk


    Posts : 3676
    Points : 3682
    Join date : 2021-12-09

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:30 am

    Mr. Rambo, calm down, noone launches offensives in the middle of winter

    Let us wait until Putins mandate after March 15 (the ides of March)

    Once the Czar receives the people's mandate - it's time for the tribute to be paid

    Everything must be procedured, February 22nd occurred after the ultimatum (a legal document)

    The upcoming offensives will take place after the mandate from the people (a new doctrine) will be announced in the victory speech

    In case you did not know, Putins victory speeches are usually indicative of what comes next

    His political campaign is not an economic based one, it is a military one (he announced his candidacy to a room of soldiers)

    It means his political life is oriented to a military campaign

    This is how the Kremlin does things now, like the bells that toll, new announcements come routinely, calmly, and planned

    All of Russia is waiting for it, and the world is too!



    Mir likes this post

    Kiko
    Kiko


    Posts : 2887
    Points : 2933
    Join date : 2020-11-12
    Age : 75
    Location : Brasilia

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  Kiko Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:51 am


    Let us wait until Putins mandate after March 15 (the ides of March)

    Mr. Arkanghelsk is a Marchist.
    Arkanghelsk
    Arkanghelsk


    Posts : 3676
    Points : 3682
    Join date : 2021-12-09

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun Jan 14, 2024 1:59 am

    Kiko wrote:
    Let us wait until Putins mandate after March 15 (the ides of March)

    Mr. Arkanghelsk is a Marchist.

    The ides of March, is really a tribute paying day

    Who will pay the tribute?

    Well, we know Putin will not be submitting legislative changes for taxation

    But we do know there is a special military operation, with victims, and who should pay tribute?

    Well, Ukraine should pay tribute

    And so the declaration of expansion of the special military operation is expected

    Some say he will use the word, you know that word?

    War?

    Kiko likes this post


    Sponsored content


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52 - Page 19 Empty Re: Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Post  Sponsored content


      Current date/time is Sun May 26, 2024 4:18 am