Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

mnztr wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:You know this issue with seizing funds of Russia is interesting

In many ways it would be good if the west did it

Imagine for a second that 300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserves denominated in euro and dollars are just seized by the west

What reaction would it spark for China? Saudi Arabia? India?

Imagine the Arab world now in this situation with Israel

Imagine China and Taiwan or the Uyghurs

Imagine India has some issue with Sikh minorities or is blamed for assassinating some Sikh living in Canada or the US like they are now

So anytime the US presses its competitors geopolitically, can they just steal your money ?

It would cause a panic to get your assets out of the west

And this would be the next hammer to dollar hegemony

When I look at this I realize people (including myself) did not have a good understanding of foreign reserves. If you wanted to move 100B of foreign reserves into an alternatve currency, its just simply NOT POSSIBLE. Foreign reserves are held mostly in treasury bills. Tbills represent an obligation of the US govt. i.e they are US debt. No other country has available that volume of debt that can replace Tbills. And TBILLs are time dated and cannot be converted to cash on demand. So they need to be sold on the secondary market. Plus the FED has 7.9T in tbills it absorbed during QE, so the fed can essentially block any Tbill liquidation by any nation by undercutting their sales.

calripson wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:You know this issue with seizing funds of Russia is interesting

In many ways it would be good if the west did it

Imagine for a second that 300 billion of Russian foreign exchange reserves denominated in euro and dollars are just seized by the west

What reaction would it spark for China? Saudi Arabia? India?

Imagine the Arab world now in this situation with Israel

Imagine China and Taiwan or the Uyghurs

Imagine India has some issue with Sikh minorities or is blamed for assassinating some Sikh living in Canada or the US like they are now

So anytime the US presses its competitors geopolitically, can they just steal your money ?

It would cause a panic to get your assets out of the west

And this would be the next hammer to dollar hegemony

When I look at this I realize people (including myself) did not have a good understanding of foreign reserves. If you wanted to move 100B of foreign reserves into an alternatve currency, its just simply NOT POSSIBLE. Foreign reserves are held mostly in treasury bills. Tbills represent an obligation of the US govt. i.e they are US debt. No other country has available that volume of debt that can replace Tbills. And TBILLs are time dated and cannot be converted to cash on demand. So they need to be sold on the secondary market. Plus the FED has 7.9T in tbills it absorbed during QE, so the fed can essentially block any Tbill liquidation by any nation by undercutting their sales.

The average daily trading volume in US Treasuries is over $500 billion. They can easily be converted into cash on the secondary market. $100 billion could be liquidated in a week. Quantitative easing occurs via the Fed expanding its balance sheet meaning they are injecting liquidity via purchasing bonds making easier to get out of treasuries. 41% of existing global debt is US based but there are other large sovereign debt markets - China the equivalent of $11.5 trillion, India the equivalent of $1.8 trillion, ect.

ArgentinaGuard wrote:

mnztr wrote:

ArgentinaGuard wrote:

mnztr wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:I am watching the ICJ case against Israel presented by South Africa



It's too late. By mid-2024, they should ask Biden for passports because Russia is going to occupy the country.

there is that question for sure. And it will be interesting to see if there is any benefit for Russia when they occupy Ukraine. But hitstory has shown that bombing the crap out of the civvies only hardens resolve. That has almost always been the case. Just look at Staingrad.

I can give you other examples like Cartago,Tenochtitlan, Hiroshima and Berlin

It all depends on the strength of the people.
I have no doubt that you will not defeat the Russians by bombing their cities, but you can subdue other inferior or decadent nations.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:Realistically you would not need to poison the supply, They could never get enough food once encircled.


You wound need to blast speakers and drop pamphlets inside basically saying "come here and surrender and you Will not be harmed"

Then invite every foreign news outlet you can and show them you have setup corridors to allow people to leave.

mnztr wrote:

When I look at this I realize people (including myself) did not have a good understanding of foreign reserves. If you wanted to move 100B of foreign reserves into an alternatve currency, its just simply NOT POSSIBLE. Foreign reserves are held mostly in treasury bills. Tbills represent an obligation of the US govt. i.e they are US debt. No other country has available that volume of debt that can replace Tbills. And TBILLs are time dated and cannot be converted to cash on demand. So they need to be sold on the secondary market. Plus the FED has 7.9T in tbills it absorbed during QE, so the fed can essentially block any Tbill liquidation by any nation by undercutting their sales.

GarryB wrote:
You could probably modify old model AAMs for the job and put them in some of your bigger drones... they probably have warehouses with R-3s and R-13s (ie AA-2 Atoll Sidewinder copies)... fit an anti radiation seeker in the nose or modify the radar homing sensor of the SARH models and every time a Gepard starts to fire you could launch a few AA-2s at them from high altitude for next to nothing... you are going to want high flying drones flying around the place watching anyway so putting a couple of small missiles on there would be useful... especially near Odessa or Kiev.

JohninMK wrote:

mnztr wrote:

When I look at this I realize people (including myself) did not have a good understanding of foreign reserves. If you wanted to move 100B of foreign reserves into an alternatve currency, its just simply NOT POSSIBLE. Foreign reserves are held mostly in treasury bills. Tbills represent an obligation of the US govt. i.e they are US debt. No other country has available that volume of debt that can replace Tbills. And TBILLs are time dated and cannot be converted to cash on demand. So they need to be sold on the secondary market. Plus the FED has 7.9T in tbills it absorbed during QE, so the fed can essentially block any Tbill liquidation by any nation by undercutting their sales.

Surely the US Gov just cancels those 'Russian' T Bills eliminating that debt and issues new $ to use as required?

Arkanghelsk wrote:Right now the juiciest assets to seize are the voter stake in all the LNG plants that have ownership by wintershall, energie, shell, exxon, money held in C accounts used by western investors that were speculating on the MICEX and OFZ bonds, Pepsi and other food retailer as well as their IP, and the list goes on

Zelensky is not going to die, by Gevorg Mirzayan for VZGLYAD. 01.13.2024.

If Zelensky remains in power in a conflict with everyone (as is now happening), then relations between the West and Ukraine will further deteriorate, and Europe and even the United States will continue to accumulate fatigue from the Kyiv regime. This means that it will be possible to achieve victory in the SVO faster.

President of Ukraine Zelensky is greeting 2024, of course, in a surprising way. In complete contrast to the 2023 meeting. Then, after the successful actions of the Kyiv regime in the Kharkov and Kherson directions, Vladimir Zelensky basked in the rays of glory and recognition. The entire Western world applauded him, American and European journalists praised him for “defeating Russia,” but his domestic political opponents sat quietly and did not speak up.

However, over the 12 months of 2023, a whole series of Zelensky’s mistakes (a failed counter-offensive, too aggressive rhetoric, an inability to properly manage Western money) and factors beyond his control (the distraction of the West’s attention to the Middle East, the fatigue of the American and European population from helping Ukraine, Moscow’s resistance to face of sanctions and President Putin’s readiness to go to the end in ensuring Russia’s security) seriously undermined the position of the leader of the Kyiv regime. Some even say that these mistakes and factors killed President Zelensky - naturally in a political sense.

It would seem that rumors of political death (or at least a dying state) are not exaggerated. After all, the internal opponents of the Ukrainian president, who always know how to keep their nose to the wind, have already become more active. Former President Petro Poroshenko began lobbying his person before Western partners (claiming to be Zelensky’s successor). The leader of the Batkivshchyna party, Yulia Tymoshenko, came out of political retirement in order to score political points by opposing the law on mobilization. And the mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Klitschko, not only publicly supported commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny (who has a conflict with Zelensky), but also actually accused the current head of state of fraud. “Of course, we can lie to our people and our partners in euphoria. But you can’t do this forever,” he said.

However, the problem is that it is too early to bury Zelensky. Yes, his situation is very difficult - but he does not intend to give up, much less resign. Partly based on their own ambitions (not a single actor, after such an impressive leading role in a global production, would want to voluntarily give it up - much less give it up to the previous star Petro Poroshenko, whom Zelensky beat with such pathos in the presidential elections), and partly because he has real tools to maintain power.

Firstly, Zelensky is capable of blackmailing Western leaders. Taking advantage of his not completely faded image of a fighter for goodness and justice (which the Western media created for him), the head of the Kyiv regime can accuse Western leaders of betrayal, and thereby create internal political problems for them. After all, despite the growing fatigue of the Western electorate from the Ukrainian adventure, a significant part of the Western establishment still wants victory in Ukraine, where they have already invested so much money. And Zelensky can show them who will ruin their investments.

At the same time, it will not be possible to completely de-heroise Zelensky. Information attacks on him, not to mention the release of compromising material, will lead to discrediting the entire image of a warring Ukraine (to which the Western media have again tied Zelensky).

Secondly, Zelensky as a super-hawk (opposing any negotiations with Moscow) is of interest to part of the American and British elite. Those who fundamentally refuse any concessions to Russia and with fanatical tenacity are ready to hope that through Ukraine they will still be able to inflict a strategic defeat on Moscow. Well, or (as the same British think) through a protracted conflict and at the cost of the complete destruction of Ukraine, weaken both Russia and Europe as much as possible. Therefore, they will continue to bet on Zelensky and support him to the end.

Thirdly, Zelensky and his team now control financial flows - money that flows into Ukraine - not only for military spending, but also for the provision of the social sphere (the Ukrainian budget deficit now exceeds 50%). Accordingly, the supply and kickback schemes (which Zelensky’s team pays to external sponsors) are well established, and changing them now would cause chaos and confusion.

Fourthly, replacing Zelensky will now lead to chaos within the Ukrainian political elite. After all, there is no single opposition figure who can be taken and, with the consensus of the elites, transplanted into the presidential chair. Yes, Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny is popular among the people - but he has neither political experience nor relevant connections.

Finally, fifthly, how can Zelensky be technically removed if he does not want to leave voluntarily? This can be done through elections - but he himself canceled them under the pretext that elections cannot be held during a war. This can be done through the liquidation of Zelensky (and then say that the evil Russians killed him) - however, there is no doubt that the Kiev leader calculated this option and made his murder inappropriate. For example, through the threat that in this case some serious dirt on Western partners will come to light.
Therefore, with a high degree of probability, we can assume that Zelensky will not give up his post. That he will hold on to it until the last Ukrainian.

As for Russia’s interests, Moscow benefits from Zelensky’s current political life. The funeral will lead to the fact that a more cunning politician will come in his place, who can seriously complicate the process of liberating Russian territories for us. And which, of course, will not have that foul-smelling political baggage that Zelensky is now burdened with.

If Zelensky remains in power in a conflict with everyone (as is now happening), then relations between the West and Ukraine will further deteriorate, and Europe and even the United States will continue to accumulate fatigue from the Kyiv regime. This means it will be possible to achieve victory in the SVO faster.

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/1/13/1248241.html

SeigSoloyvov wrote:I mean if the Russians keep going at this speed it won't end by 2025.

The lengths of this war depends on them

Kiko wrote:
Let us wait until Putins mandate after March 15 (the ides of March)

Mr. Arkanghelsk is a Marchist.