Commentary from a long serving Spanish military officer, one of the readers of my blog, giving a professional assesment of the fighting,
The Russians have repelled the Ukrainian attack to the south of Rabotino and to the north of Novoprokopivka, on the eastern flank they are containing, in Verbove, the Ukrainian and the attempt on the other flank, to the west, by Kopani barely 48 hours ago was a disaster for the small advanced Ukrainian units that made contact with the Russian defenders.
This is the situation on this front at 07:30 today Friday, September 1st Spanish time.
The fighting has been tough, many casualties and equipment losses in both contenders but the Ukrainians have taken the brunt of it in view of each other's reports.
The fact that you have broken in at one point of the defense does not imply the successful penetration of the opponent at all, at all, it is up to the defender to neutralize it and the attacker to exploit it in depth under some requirements. The commands of each other have to think fast and act with determination in one direction and in the other, comply with the plan and, as always, adapt it to the changing reality of combat, there is no more, no less, and during this process you have to minimize your casualties and maximize those of the opposite. That is, and in old Spanish, this is a continuous "give and take" except for sporadic pauses that everyone is grateful for…
Regarding the break of the Russian defensive line mentioned yesterday, yes but no, the Ukrainians had already broken the first line months ago, it took weeks to reach Rabotino and so many others to break the Russian defense north of Rabotino, so many others to "control" the village because Rabotino is a village without great value and south of Rabotino there is another defense line between this village and Novoprokopivka, the mess was here these past 24 hours where the Ukrainian managed to temporarily break it at several points, but from there to Tokmak there is a stretch and often a stretch, for now a defensive line denser than the previous ones mentioned and finally the main defense of Tokmak that include natural obstacles such as the Chingul River as I say natural barrier to the north of Tokmak and, in turn, this same locality is divided in two by the Tokmak River which is a tributary of the other Molochnaya River to the west of the city. The main defense of Tokmak has not been affected at all by yesterday's rupture and the panic of the pro-Russian social networks was not justified, another thing, and it is my perception of all this, is that the Russian should go thinking about a counteroffensive in this sector and drive the Ukrainians to Orikhiv.
I am aware that for most civilians the comments that I am putting mostly tactical may get a little boring with so many names, etc, etc but if they accompany it with a plan and they are placing symbos and arrows they will be able to better assess the real progress of the conflict on the ground and judge with a critical sense everything that is said out there by the so-called pro-Ukrainians.
Nervousness, like fear, is the property of everyone, there is little that can be done except to try to manage it as best as one can according to one's DNA, but the truth is that in the other sectors the Russian is advancing and recovering positions and lost ground and, for example, in Artemivsk fighting is taking place in Bohdanivka and this is important because for months this point was quiet under the absolute control of the Ukrainian.
I advise you, before giving an assessment of the battle, to contrast the plans of one and the other and draw consequences without unnecessary optimism or pessimism.
To this day, the Russian continues to literally erase the Ukrainian from the map, regardless of whether they score a goal here or there and that they are exponentially oversized by the Western media.
Another thing and I repeat again, is that for me, seeing all this and how it is going, the Russian should as soon as possible start taking the initiative in Zaporizhia because in the rest he already has it.
Can the Ukrainian get to Tokmak? I am not a prophet of war but in my humble opinion the maximum Ukrainian approach to Tokmak will be to the Chingul River in the best of scenarios. Entering the locality I see it as impracticable with what the Ukrainians have and seeing the Ukrainian progression, in the assumption of, it would be except capital surprise in a period of no less than 6 weeks. Along the way they would have to assume losses of men and equipment that they do not have unless they literally empty other sectors and this is counterproductive? no! the next worst thin . They have to make a new army with more mobilizations and the Western one with the USA at the head scratch their pocket and drop more of everything.
Last edited by Ispan on Fri Sep 01, 2023 10:59 am; edited 1 time in total