Russian special military operation in Ukraine #43

In Baltics, 40% of the Latvian population is Russian, specifically Riga, over 300,000 people have passports - and these are not Ukrainian "brothers" these are real Russians

Same for Tallinn, over a quarter of people in Tallinn are also Russians

Good luck to NATO there -

In Belarus you have a 100 thousand man army , and in Kaliningrad a little less than half in an area the size of Crimea

Closing the suwalki gap would not be in an issue here, it would look like Gostomel, on a large scale

As for who would resort to nuclear weapons use, I doubt losing some territory would cause Russia to resort to it, no reason to do it with Kherson or Kharkov so why would they do it in Kaliningrad?

Most likely they would carve out a corridor in Poland to Kaliningrad and start denazifying Lithuania

If NATO wants to fight an SMO style war over some unpopulated valleys, it's on them, although I doubt they will tolerate Bakhmut level casualties, but Wagner can put them to the test

And a no fly zone will be imposed, see the Ukrainian airforce for the story on that

our friends from NATO continue to say they have gigantic populations of 700 millions

I want to see who will mobilize 1 million men faster, in a war over Russian territory - the Swiss? Maybe the Portuguese? Don't make me laugh

300k were mobilized, and are held in reserve, and you mean to tell me that NATO will mobilize that number?

Maybe if you take Ukrainians out of Donbass and transplant them into Poland, but then it would be a whole other problem, Volyn style

If Ukraine and Belarus are absorbed into Russia, all the baltics are fucked. They will absorbe them too.

Well, Ukraine is 99% Russian and this didn’t mean much. NATO and Russia war is something both sides want to avoid. NATO still has Ukrainians to throw at Russia and Russians don’t need to shoot at NATO countries to inflict damage. All I can say, next US/NATO war will be nasty business, US lucky that they pulled out of Afghanistan, it would have been so much worse if suddenly talibs would have ATGMs and MANPADs

It's not about % of russians. Take a map, if Russia absorbs Belarus and Ukraine and move its forces closer there, Baltics will defacto be cut from Nato. They will be within Russia and easy to annexe.

Arkanghelsk wrote:In Baltics, 40% of the Latvian population is Russian, specifically Riga, over 300,000 people have passports - and these are not Ukrainian "brothers" these are real Russians

Same for Tallinn, over a quarter of people in Tallinn are also Russians...

More than 40% of Ukrainians were Russians until Russian Military went in and got lynched and castrated

There are no Russians in Baltics

JohninMK wrote:Not a smile today but a bloody good laugh

Imagine the potential ear damage from firing from this position.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1664760057861373952

Do they play a barry white tune during exercises?

ayden
@squatsons
·
35m

The new strike pattern appears to be as follows.

~00:00 local Geran 2s launch and head towards Kiev.

~01:30-02:00 missiles are launched over the Caspian by 4-6 Tu-95s

~03:30 missile and drones are in AD range around Kiev

~04:00 missiles and drones hit or are intercepted

~05:00 air raid turned off

We are at 00:46 local currently.

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
58m
At least 6 Tu-95MS Strategic Bombers most likely carrying Kh-55 Cruise Missiles and Kh-22 Anti-Ship Missiles are currently Airborne and heading towards their “Launch Zones” over the Caspian Sea; a Russian Missile Attack tonight against Ukraine appears Imminent.

The Airspace to Northwest of the Caspian Sea near the Tu-95s “Launch Zones” has been Closed with Commercial Aircraft redirecting to go around, this is usually the first sign that a Launch is preparing to occur.

Sujoy wrote:
Russian authorities need to investigate the role played by any foreign reporter based in Russia in facilitating these strikes. During Gulf War I & II, reporters from CNN and BBBC used to laze targets that allowed US warplanes to hit those targets

Then they are not journalists but dirty criminals and combatants and should not experience any mercy.

-Where Zaluzhny?
-Where Budyanov?
-Where Spring Offensive?

PapaDragon wrote:There are no Russians in Baltics

If NATO keeps playing stupid games and if Moscow does this thing right, one fine day there will be no Lithuanians, Estonians or Latvians in Baltics  

In the words of (John) Lenin:  Some say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...  Feel free to hum along  

JohninMK wrote:Imagine the potential ear damage from firing from this position.

I'd be more concerned about rear damage... but given the nature of NATO armies these days, that ship has probably sailed already.

Zelensky has more leverage than before, that's why the offensive doesn't begin

The west went all in and promised a victory, and right now it's more important for them to sell their citizens a victory, than it is for Zelensky

Zelensky keeps saying the offensive will start, but it will only start when he gets enough weapons

He's now threatening to boycott the NATO meeting.

Likely, he is using the leverage that western leaders destroyed their own economies for, to pressure them into finally giving larger weapons like f16s

Right now the onus is on the west for the offensive to begin, for Zelensky it really doesn't matter, the situation has killed and wounded 200k+ Ukrainians, and cost them 20 million citizens and more than 50% of their GDP - So Zelensky has very little to lose at this point, and we will probably see Zelensky push the line even further as this goes on

Meanwhile the Moscow Military District, and Leningrad Military District are being reconstituted-

Remember those districts existed before the reform which joined them all into 1 single western military district ,

3000 tanks were sent to the Finnish border, and 300,000 additional service members will make up both of those Army Corps

Then you have another grouping , the Azov Sea Corps, which will have 5 divisions, and 26 brigades

Moscow District will be a combined arms army, and Leningrad will be an Air Assault Army

Very interesting times ahead

Polands F-16s are C/D which is somewhat viable. The ones the others want to give are clapped out ancient F-16s that are much older versions. The last one was delivered in 1992. Probably cheaper then dismantling them. Better to spread F-16 fragments all over Ukraine.

The arming of Kiev is all about getting rid of ex Soviet equipment and weapons and ammo and also old tosh like Leopard 1 tanks and first gen F-16s for nice hard core replacements of modern stuff for their inventories.

This has nothing to do with helping Kiev and everything to do with recycling old trash into newer shit.

- it means nuclear war will not be a first resort, a conventional war is very possible

A conventional war with all of HATO is not desirable... the use of tactical nuclear weapons to wipe out large groupings of conventional forces as they form up to be used is a far more efficient way of dealing with a threat and importantly any retaliation from the west could be stopped by Russian air defences... not something the west can really claim...

Kinzhal delivered nuke that reaches the ideal detonation location and does the required damage either in western Ukraine or perhaps Poland depending on the situation (Poland if the troops are forming up to attack Kaliningrad and start moving to do so... then an Iskander from the territory of Kaliningrad is justified).

So Russians have more people who are willing to tolerate what a total war means, then the west has

Kiev has been shelling people for almost 10 years now so the Russian people know they are fighting evil on their doorstep.

For Americans... who cares about Russians fighting Russians, whether they call themselves Ukrainian or cut their own dicks off and staple them to their foreheads and call themselves girl unicorns...

Before this war is over, Poland is going to cross a big, fat, red line (attacking Russian troops, dropping B61's on Russian positions) and Russia is going to completely destroy their country in retaliation.

I hope not, but don't underestimate the stupidity of the west... Russia does not want to destroy anyone, but if it feels it needs it has to... well...

As for the EU Or US? good luck getting those kids to work at Raytheon, Boeing, or Norfolk, or to sign up for the military - there's no patriotism there, and the elite is so disconnected from the average person, they still think that sex changes and black representation is more important than Mechanical Engineering, Physics, or Math

Their problem is how to equate western patriotism with fighting a war in the Ukraine against Russia... what interest there is threatening the safety and security of the US?

They created the conflict in the first place... they should be happy now but they pretend to not be.

Poland has government that is using Russia as a threat to consolidate the power and some political independence in EU while still getting German and US money. They might act like rabid dogs, but they are pragmatic (unlike Baltic countries)

Putin has mentioned that there are parts of western ukraine that he does not consider Russian or ukrainian... imagine a deal that includes Poland getting some land... they will be over the moon... but of course it is a poison pill like the return of East Germany to Germany... the transition wont be easy because they learned to be different people when apart... how they learn to cooperate and cohabit will be difficult...

As for who would resort to nuclear weapons use, I doubt losing some territory would cause Russia to resort to it, no reason to do it with Kherson or Kharkov so why would they do it in Kaliningrad?

They wont if they think they can take it back like Kherson and Kharkov, but an invasion of Kaliningrad would be an outright declaration of war from the countries that did that, and if you let them take that then you will see the Japs take the Kuriles and possibly more and Finland look at territory it wants too... where would it end?

Then they are not journalists but dirty criminals and combatants and should not experience any mercy.

The journalists will be recognised journalists but the cameramen will be special forces with laser target markers amongst their camera equipment...

Help wanted, I am translating an article on tactics and this picture of a Wagner squad is interesting by the weapons mix and what can be deducted



Can anyone please identify the weapon of the third man from the right? it looks like some kind of 30 or 40 mm grenade launcher with perhaps a revolver magazine holding several rounds (not visible)

Oh, I thought I had seen it somewhere else and googled it, it's even more interesting


https://armamentresearch.com/russian-gm-94-thermobaric-grenade-launcher-documented-in-ukraine-2022/

GarryB wrote:
The arming of Kiev is all about getting rid of ex Soviet equipment and weapons and ammo and also old tosh like Leopard 1 tanks and first gen F-16s for nice hard core replacements of modern stuff for their inventories.

It is actually good, because America always spoke about the superiority of their equipment because the export version of Soviet weapon, with lack of support, maintenance and modernisation (including mig 29) that were used by middle east and African countries were defeated.

Now if ucraine gets the A/B Version of the F16 (not that the C/D will do much better) and they will fall down from the sky like flies I am curious to hear what they will say

Concerning the equipment, it is to be seen if they have money for it, because the modern fighter aircrafts (especially American ones that US puppets are forced to buy in at least certain quantities) are much more expensive to buy and operate (and some of them require also much more maintenance, reducing further the operability/availablity rate.

Actually, and we discussed it many times, a F35 is much less useful without the gigantic support that only the USAF can provide.

ALAMO wrote:
Bingo.
Keep in mind, that this trash is formally being "sold", so it is the best opportunity not only to save on disposal, but get some cash instead.
That's why this circus will be rolling.

Yeah but this is only financial, or bookkeeping "magic". It will only allow to fake not having horrible conditions for their economies for a couple of years more. Nothing more than that. Especially considering that country 404 is not going to pay.

Slowly but surely there is a move west.

Trollstoy
@Trollstoy88
·
1h
In Kupyansk raion, reports that the village of Novomlynsk has come under control of RuAF.

Russian Forces have crossed the Oskil River on a secondary axis.

This means further offensive operation on Kupyansk as RuAF are now capturing better tactical positions around the city.

Can anyone please identify the weapon of the third man from the right? it looks like some kind of 30 or 40 mm grenade launcher with perhaps a revolver magazine holding several rounds (not visible)

43mm...



Official information:

http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/Security%20systems/Counterterrorist%20assets/Close%20combat%20assets/GM-94/

Ammo information in this section... if you click the continue button at the bottom of the page and keep going down you find the ammo types...

http://roe.ru/eng/catalog/special-weapons-and-ammunitions/

Now if ucraine gets the A/B Version of the F16 (not that the C/D will do much better) and they will fall down from the sky like flies I am curious to hear what they will say

Well they have already said their pilots are good and picking things up quickly, so they can't claim bad pilots...

Concerning the equipment, it is to be seen if they have money for it, because the modern fighter aircrafts (especially American ones that US puppets are forced to buy in at least certain quantities) are much more expensive to buy and operate (and some of them require also much more maintenance, reducing further the operability/availablity rate.

And when a person used to operating cheap simple cars they fix themselves gets a brand new expensive car the high cost of maintenance often leads to them doing it themselves (badly) or not doing it... which has consequences of course.

Yeah but this is only financial, or bookkeeping "magic". It will only allow to fake not having horrible conditions for their economies for a couple of years more. Nothing more than that. Especially considering that country 404 is not going to pay.

The beautiful thing is that the west has seized Russian assets and funds and is in the process of siphoning as much as they can to Kiev which of course will all disappear, so when the conflict ends the west will no doubt demand Russia pay the bill, so they will expect Russia to follow international law when they did not.

There is something not quite right about this, like him saying his role is reduced (believable but why say it?) and why apologise to the Russian Federation (our people?) reference. Anyone seen the photo before?

After all the hype about the spring Ukr offensive, we have no noise how it is Russian missile attacks and Artyomovsk that have frustrated
this offensive. There is always hype about Russian "defeats" (e.g. Belgorod) and deafening silence when Russia wins.

The Khuiyiv regime can't mount its vaunted offensive. It does not have the munitions (destroyed by Russia) and the soldiers (they
squandered in Artyomovsk and elsewhere). Throwing green conscripts at Russian lines will not be an offensive, it will be a mass
suicide operation.

Scott Ritter says that Russia has honed its skills at surveillance over Ukraine and keep track of weapons supply movements. Given
the apparent facts on the ground, he is right.

This is today's smile moment.

The comment refers to the hand movements of the guy on the right of the group. An international sign

Another stupid fake. Regular bomb crater with some nonsense debris staged in it. It is physically impossible for such an intact amount of a missile to remain.
That is why the soil is removed to produce a crater. If it was a high velocity impact from an intact missile it would not produce such a large crater and it
would not be symmetric.

The Ukr mova overlay is touting this as some big success of the Ukr air defense systems.