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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #43

    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Sun May 21, 2023 2:58 am

    Be interesting to see where the next push will be

    After lisichansk and severodonetsk they pushed to Charlie Line

    Now the Charlie Line is gone , Bakhmut has fallen,

    Chasov Yar is a stones throw away

    Marinka and Avdeyevka are under heavy fire ,

    And seversk lies in a natural cauldron - you also have Ugledar which could be the site of a next push, although Ugledar is more of a strategic target rather than a city where Russia can bleed the VSU

    Mariupol and Bakhmut both served that purpose, where will the next one be?

    Backman
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    Post  Backman Sun May 21, 2023 7:10 am

    Bakmhut was a unique situation. At least we should hope so. It was the center of all logistics and operations in the Donbas wasn't it ?

    I'm just saying , I hope the next city is taken the way Mariupol was. And less so the way Bakmhut was.
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    Post  ALAMO Sun May 21, 2023 7:32 am

    Backman wrote:Bakmhut was a unique situation. At least we should hope so. It was the center of all logistics and operations in the Donbas wasn't it ?

    I'm just saying , I hope the next city is taken the way Mariupol was. And less so the way Bakmhut was.

    Both had totally different goals.
    If the numbers provided are true, Artemovsk constitutes 15% of the entire Ukrowehrmacht losses in this war.
    It is a more significant share than Stalingrad brought on Axis.
    Realizing the fact that it was brought on them by a private military company is objectively scary.
    Because I will repeat that again, Wagner does not possess the factor of strength of a Russian regular heavy army unit.

    Edit :
    And again a clue of what I have said a long time ago.
    The very best source of Ukroisis crimes is not Russian made, but the crap they provide voluntarily and all by them own.

    https://t.me/DDGeopolitics/64375

    Fuehrer of Ukrogestapo is openly calling for the physical termination of "certain people" from a list of "enemies".
    The footage is a part of longer material I can't find now, watched it yesterday. They have debated about 3 mln Crimeans, as most of them are considered traitors. And part of them is to be liquidated as a "solution".

    Nobody would believe in that if provided in Raussian news.

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    Post  GarryB Sun May 21, 2023 9:06 am

    Smartest thing Russia did in a long time and now you are telling me it's fake?

    Waiting till only 1% of the city you have been taking slowly room by room and building by building for quite some time before you deploy WP as a weapon would be stupid. It would be the sort of thing the Orcs would do in about 2015 or 2016 to intimidate the locals and get them to leave so they could occupy their houses to build more fortifications.

    Nothing but disappointments it seems...

    Nothing?

    It is now called Artyomovsk because those who hold the territory get to name that territory...

    The big problem now is, given the inability of common instruments to detect the dust (plus lack of will by Governments to do so), is to identify affected areas.

    Problem for whom?

    The UK refuses to take any responsibility and good luck getting compensation from Kiev.

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    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Sun May 21, 2023 10:34 am



    The Ukrs Air force launched Storm shadow to LDPR recently , then Mig29 and Su25 was shot down . If true then this means that F16 can be hidden and armed and get fuel and attack . F16 can use Roads to land and take off , but needs proper hanger for service and repair . This can be done in Poland or inside West Ukrs . Intercept from Belarus by S300-400 possible , but risks getting them involved . Hitting hanger in Poland by BM , not an option . So option left is to hit them on approach to Russia .

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Sun May 21, 2023 10:39 am

    With all those soviet AD in ukrainian service there will be no IFF working for those f-16.

    Russia will only need to launch some dummy kh-55 pretending to be su-34 when the f-16 are airborne and let ukrainians shoot on every target in the sky including the f-16.

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    Post  GarryB Sun May 21, 2023 11:10 am

    If true then this means that F16 can be hidden and armed and get fuel and attack . F16 can use Roads to land and take off , but needs proper hanger for service and repair .

    No.

    The F-16 needs pristine roads to operate from... hard motorway roads with no stones or bumps or rubbish on or nearby, and it needs regular service and repair which means it needs to operate close to a hangar.

    MiG-29s and Su-25s are designed for forward deployment... they have shorter periods between overhaul than the F-16 but between those overhauls you just fill up the fuel and oil and rearm it and send it on its way... Soviet airfields were not walked down by airfield service personnel ten times a day to pick up stones and bolts and nuts and other material that might have be left on them... the MiG-29 has intake doors or mesh screen doors to deflect FOD (foreign object damage) material... with an F-16 you lose an engine on your average road... especially the average road in the Ukraine.

    This can be done in Poland or inside West Ukrs .

    If the hangar is in western ukraine or Poland then that is where the roads for takeoff and landing have to be... so you might as well use the runways... and that US expert has already said there is too much crap on ex Soviet airfields for the F-16 to operate safely... they have never bothered to pick up stones or small metal parts lying around the place because their aircraft were not so fragile as to require that.

    The F-16 would need to operate from Poland which makes it part of the war and a legitimate target for the Russians.

    Article 5 would not matter if F-16s were operating from Polish airfields attacking targets in the Ukraine or Russia.

    Intercept from Belarus by S300-400 possible , but risks getting them involved

    If aircraft are operating from Poland then they are involved and legitimate targets.

    Hitting hanger in Poland by BM , not an option . So option left is to hit them on approach to Russia .

    If they were operating from Poland then hit them in Poland... it would be a great opportunity to tell them not to get involved like they are and back the censored up.

    With all those soviet AD in ukrainian service there will be no IFF working for those f-16.

    Good point... friendly Iglas will be just as much a threat as enemy ones...

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Sun May 21, 2023 11:28 am

    Gunship wrote:The International Criminal Court
    ICC not amused to receive the american treatment from Russia. lol1

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    Post  JohninMK Sun May 21, 2023 11:44 am

    A selection of views for your delectation Very Happy

    Make Peace Now; alternative news
    @AlternatNews
    ·
    4h
    The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense spokeswoman says Russia is "preparing an assassination attempt on Ukrainian army chief Zaluzhny". From this we have to deduce that he is already dead. He has not been seen for the longest time. There are rumours that he was injured in a Russian attack or, more likely, killed by Ukraine for advocating the surrender of Bakhmut.

    His opposition to Zelensky was detrimental to his health. Now, Ukraine is trying to put that dagger into a Russian hand.


    ZOKA
    @200_zoka
    ·
    4h
    Information about Zaluzhny being seriously injured during missile attack by Russian Forces on command posts of Armed Forces of Ukraine in Dnepropetrovsk region indirectly confirmed by post on Facebook page of employees of Ukrainian National Military Medical Clinical Center.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #43 - Page 6 FwoMq8oXsAAcr2G?format=jpg&name=small


    GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --
    @GeromanAT
    ·
    4h
    The regime in Kiev and their devoted pro NATO shills in the Western press are now spinning a new cover up story after the dispearance of the 2 highest ranking Ukranian generals...
    'Russia has plans for the assassination of Zirsky and Zalushny'
    You can't make this shit up

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #43 - Page 6 FwoJ-rhacAErV3w?format=png&name=small


    GEROMAN -- time will tell - 👀 --
    @GeromanAT
    ·
    3h
    "we do not appologize for the deeds of our Nazi Bandera Hero - because without him we have no national identity anymore - and so the whole modern history of Ukraine (written in Langley to make us hate all Russians) would fall appart"

    Theresa 🇷🇺 🇳🇬
    @tretter50001
    ·
    3h
    The demand of the representative of the Polish Foreign Ministry Lukasz Yasin to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to apologize for the Volyn massacre is unacceptable. This was stated by the Ukrainian Ambassador to Warsaw Vasily Zvarich.

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    Post  JohninMK Sun May 21, 2023 11:55 am

    Either he or his team are at the top of their game Laughing

    Patrick Henningsen
    @21WIRE
    ·
    May 19
    Medvedev responds to Ursula von der Leyen's rejection of any peace negotiations:

    "It's hard to disagree with a gynecologist who pretends to be the head of the EU. The lady stated that the negotiations between Russia and Kiev on an equal basis should be rejected.

    Of course they should be discarded. What kind of equal negotiations can there be with a Nazi state in semi-collapse and under foreign rule? You can only talk to their bosses. More precisely, only with Washington. There are no other interlocutors…

    And only about the conditions of the post-war world order. But it is still too early to talk about it.

    Therefore, there is no need for negotiations at all at this time.”

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Sun May 21, 2023 11:57 am

    The Kiev regime was already using Romanian airfields last year so Poland staging the F-16 would not make it a real target for Russian retaliation.
    Russia is avoiding engaging NATzO directly.

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    Post  JohninMK Sun May 21, 2023 12:06 pm

    On the Liberation of #Artyomovsk⚡

    🔹1. Zelensky's Regime called #Bakhmut - "Fortetsey Bakhmut". Today, this "fortress has fallen" despite all the efforts of more than 80 thousand groups that operated in this direction, not counting the transferred reserves from the #Kharkov, #Svatovo, Krasny #Liman, #Zaporozhye directions. The enemy resisted fiercely until the very end, despite heavy losses, but could not hold the city.

    🔹2. We also suffered significant losses during the battles for the city. And PMCs "Wagner" and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Despite the joy of victory, remember today about those who fell in these months in the city and around it, so that this victory became possible.

    🔹3. Despite all the Difficulties, problems, losses - the #Artyomovsk offensive operation ended with our victory. The enemy lost one of the key cities in the #Donbass, suffered terrible losses in manpower and equipment, was forced to adjust plans for other operations and at the same time received a powerful image blow.

    🔹4. Of course, the Wagner PMC played a decisive role in the liberation of #Artyomovsk, whose stormtroopers broke through the enemy's echeloned defences in the most difficult conditions and pressed the enemy out of the city until today.

    Now Wagner has 3 landmark victories - #Popasna, #Soledar and #Artyomovsk, not counting #Svetlodarsk, #Uglegorskaya TPP, etc. The case when powerful PR is supported by powerful deeds for which there is no shame.

    As everyone understands, now the Wagner PMC is No. 1 in the market of private military companies not only in our country, but also in the world. The state has a very serious tool and it would be very desirable that hardware friction or personal ambitions do not prevent its further use in the interests of achieving victory in the war.

    "Wagner" from 25 May go on vacation from #Artyomovsk - they fully deserve it.

    🔹5. According to the Laws of the DPR, #Bakhmut has gone down in history - since 20 May 2023, the city is already, in fact and legally, #Artyomovsk. After the war, residents will have the opportunity to return to discussing the name of the city, but for now we are celebrating the liberation of #Artyomovsk.

    No matter how banal it may sound, but the liberation of #Artyomovsk is the fulfillment of one of the constituent tasks of the 2nd stage of the SMO associated with the liberation of the LPR and the DPR. The task is still far from being solved - there are heavy battles ahead with the #NATO mercenary army, which will not give up other occupied Russian cities so easily.

    🔹6. For #Russia, the Battle of #Artyomovsk has become one of the bloodiest and longest since the Great Patriotic War. The more valuable is the victory achieved.

    🏵 Happy #Artyomovsk Liberation Day to Everyone!

    📜 Boris Rozhin; 20 May 2023, 16:25

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    Post  Hole Sun May 21, 2023 12:11 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #43 - Page 6 Fwnio-10

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    Post  Kiko Sun May 21, 2023 12:16 pm

    kvs wrote:The Kiev regime was already using Romanian airfields last year so Poland staging the F-16 would not make it a real target for Russian retaliation.
    Russia is avoiding engaging NATzO directly.

    Russia is already engaging NATO in Ukraine, don't be mistaken. All NATO countries, under the leadership of the Anglo-Americans are directly involved in the war against Russia, as if Zelenskii's Ukraine was already a NATO member and that in fact Article 5 was really operational.
    The NATO supply of F-16s to Kiev's war effort with the accompanying provision of pilots and maintenance staff from NATO countries opens the ground for direct Russian strikes on other Western targets.

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    Post  zare Sun May 21, 2023 1:00 pm

    And that's exactly the bait NATO is doing.

    The aircraft will be based over the border and it will be used to try to knock down Russian subsonic cruise missiles and drones the old school way. It's a last ditch AA attempt for Western Ukraine. They need something, or they're completely open for business. Without AA even Su-25 from Belarus can do damage to formations and depots in the western part of the country.

    There is no chance in hell Russians are going to target NATO territory. Everything is going to their favour. In year+ of warmongering and trying to scare the population into thinking Russians are going to hit EU, the only occasional strike on EU soil was done by Ukraine.

    If these were squads of F-15E properly armed and properly trained then there could be contingencies. F-16 is a joke.

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    Post  nomadski Sun May 21, 2023 1:35 pm


    Right ! HangAr ! My spelling mistake . The F16 must operate either by flying direct from bases in Poland / Romania with mid-air refuelling or fly from forward operating bases inside Ukr territory , say at 500 km from frontlines . If GarryB is right , and Ukrs Roads not suitable for F16 , then only option is fly from Poland etc , with refuelling . This makes big target and not possible . Since tanker easy target . No need to destroy HangAr in Poland with BM . Just destroy tanker at 500 km from Russia border .
    Right ?

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sun May 21, 2023 2:08 pm

    Right ! HangAr ! My spelling mistake .

    English can have local spellings... especially American English... I understood what you were talking about so no big deal.

    Sometimes the spelling can change the meaning of words when it is important but not in this case. Smile

    Maybe the solution is to declare all of Ukrainian airspace a no fly zone for civilian non Russian military aircraft and therefore as anything crosses into Uk airspace it can be shot down immediately... those F-16 wont last long because they will be flying very low and very fast and I doubt their old airframes will take much of that.

    I suspect what will end up happening is that these F-16s will operate in HATO airspace and use their radar and air to air missiles to try to shoot down Russian missiles aimed at Ukrainian targets in the west of the country with AWACS support...

    Russia will then just have to shoot them down anyway.

    The Kiev regime was already using Romanian airfields last year so Poland staging the F-16 would not make it a real target for Russian retaliation.
    Russia is avoiding engaging NATzO directly.

    There were lots of targets that were off limits before that stopped being off limits as Kiev escalated things with attacks on Crimea and inside Russian territory and Putin himself...

    Russia has changed tactics when it felt necessary to make a point... often missed by the west or they reacted by further escalations.

    Destroying western tanks and aircraft might be necessary for the west to realise a few things.

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    Post  Broski Sun May 21, 2023 2:20 pm

    I know that Poland thinks Russia would never attack them because of Article 5 so they'll most likely let the Ukraine operate F-16's from their territory. Anyone thinking that Russia won't send Kalibrs and Kinzhals to destroy Polish airbases as a response isn't paying attention.

    Tell me, which NATO members would be willing to declare war on Russia and risk a direct confrontation with the largest nuclear power in the world to defend Poland? dunno dunno dunno

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    Post  zare Sun May 21, 2023 2:31 pm

    I still presume none of that will happen because Poland has a big conventional army and if they push in while AFU is still a thing, it will create problems for the Russians.

    Poland could drag itself into a war and not evoke Article 5 but use "passive" support from NATO like Ukraine has.

    F-16 operating from abroad will have to be tackled in some other way than the easiest "just destroy it on the ground".
    There are many options. Further suppression of S2A sites and then MiG-31 high altitude patrol is probably what they're going to do. I'm quite interested to see effect of R-37 on them. Before this conflict I'd say they'd be used to mission kill them into returning to airfields, because a small fighter jet over long distance is just too maneuverable for such a missile, but given they had destroyed AFU fighter jets, anything is possible.

    Another option is PAKFA, if they've finished R-37 integration it can be used even closer.

    P.S. if you think RF would nuke Poland if it decides to involve itself, why they didn't do it to Ukraine then?
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    Post  sepheronx Sun May 21, 2023 2:38 pm

    Poland barely has an army. Belarus hasld a larger army until Poland said they will drum up 300,000 men
    I doubt they did but let's say they did. They already handed over most of its equipment to Ukraine so at best they will have a very large foot soldier force but not mechanized.

    Anyway, let's see happens.

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    Post  Isos Sun May 21, 2023 3:14 pm

    Poland attacking russian forces means bye bye article 5. Russia can level the country with nuks no one will move a finger.

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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun May 21, 2023 3:58 pm

    No it cannot only justification for using nukes is being nuked yourself, or if your capital is being marched on.

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sun May 21, 2023 4:11 pm

    zare wrote:I still presume none of that will happen because Poland has a big conventional army and if they push in while AFU is still a thing, it will create problems for the Russians.

    Poland could drag itself into a war and not evoke Article 5 but use "passive" support from NATO like Ukraine has.

    (...)

    P.S. if you think RF would nuke Poland if it decides to involve itself, why they didn't do it to Ukraine then?

    Russia would not nuke Poland, but it has a lot of different options that could cause incredible damage to it without going nuclear.

    With country 404 there was still the "pretense" of being a brotherly population, and furthermore it was based on historical russian lands.
    Poland not so much. In case Poland would hit russian forces first, Russia would not have issues in hitting were it creates big infrastructural problems for them, since it is not interested in the land (except maybe for a small land corridor to Kaliningrad).

    Actually if Poland would actually do something so suicidal, it would be a good moment to organise a half German half polish "Prussian" state in the nord of poland (but prohibiting it in the Constitution to join either country or the EU) and making the rest of it a landlocked country, to make People understand the price of bothering the bear, even if it is probably not worth the effort.

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    Post  flamming_python Sun May 21, 2023 4:20 pm

    I don't see how it's imaginable that Russia will not strike Polish territory if the later enters the war and starts engaging Russian troops. Of course command posts, radars, airfields, military industries, ammo depots, fuel depots, naval bases, rail junctions, etc.. will all be targeted - they will have to be as they're involved in direct hostilities against Russia. Or are they going to wait like gentlemen while cruise missiles are launched from Polish territory against Russian targets and agree to only shoot them down on their approach?
    There will be fighting on the border with Kaliningrad, there will be fighting on the border with Belarus. It will be total war and it cannot be contained to some 'battle royale' on exclusively Ukrainian territory.
    And I don't see how in this scenario NATO will not get involved either. This is a straight road to WW3. Which makes this prospect less realistic, IMO.

    The only way Poland can enter the war is if it pretends to be the Ukrainian army and doesn't use its own airforce from its own territory. Even then I'm skeptical.

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    Post  Mig-31BM2 Super Irbis-E Sun May 21, 2023 4:26 pm

    @AZgeopolitics
    Zelensky compared Hiroshima with Bakhmut
    “What happened in Hiroshima and the destruction that we have ... I will say frankly, I will say openly - the photos of the destruction of Hiroshima remind me of Bakhmut,” the NarcoFuhrer said.

    How perverted does one have to be to draw such a comparison? Killing thousands of civilians in one go and here soldiers against "soldiers is something completely different. A crime against humanity is put into perspective. Disgusting.

    GarryB, GunshipDemocracy, JohninMK, zardof, lancelot, Mir, Broski and Belisarius like this post


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