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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

    Ispan
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    Post  Ispan Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:16 pm

    Maybe somebody has read this and knows the source?

    I have read somewhere, perhaps in a Telegram channel, that at Artemovsk the Ukry are suffering many casualties not so much from the superiority of Russian artillery but because the Wagnerovs engage at smalls arms range, that much is certain because they are spending literally thousands of AK bullets per man per day. But what is killing the Ukrops is the firepower advantage Russians have in company support weapons, namely mortars and specifically AGS-17 grenade launchers.

    I have a pending report about autumn battles that somebody in the south (Tatarsky) complained that the infantry lack the 82mm mortars. Both in the Donbass war of 2014-2015 and this war they seem to have fallen by the wayside in preference to artillery and the heavier 120mm mortars. I believe the reason is that as infantry weapons, there is just not enough manpower to hadnle them and much less to carry the ammunition. the heavier mortars are paradoxically more mobile as they can be towed by a vehicle and they have their dedicated ammo carriers

    Found it!

    From our contributor Alcibiades,

    Alcibiades on the War. Truth in a sea of lies.

    In a rare moment of editorial clarity, last week the "Kyiv" Independent (a major Ukrainian state propaganda outlet) published a pessimistic story on Ukraine's situation in the town of Bakhmut. They made a very revealing observation: that Ukraine's front-line troops in Bakhmut are not actually being devastated by superior Russian artillery firing from long range. Ukraine is taking hundreds of casualties daily in that town due to Russian superiority in heavy infantry weapons like mortars and automatic grenade launchers (the article doesn't admit it, but I suspect direct fire from Russian armor as well), which are putting VSU positions under a hail of short-range fire they simply cannot respond to.

    It's very difficult to square this situation with the line we're constantly sold - even from otherwise levelheaded Russian sources - that the Ukrainians have masses of infantry that the Russians have trouble dealing with. If Ukraine could put adequate numbers of well-armed infantry into Bakhmut the situation would be reversed and Russian troops would not be able to close with and hammer away at VSU positions with impunity. This shows that regardless of the number of footsoldiers the Ukrainians are pushing into Bakhmut, the troops they have attempting to hold the line are not actually proper infantry but are really closer to militia armed only with light weapons - perhaps difficult to assault but practically helpless beyond the range of an assault rifle.

    In reality they are also probably outnumbered by attacking Russians at this point, regardless of Ukrainian efforts to reinforce the town. In the last couple days we've seen reports of 500 and then 800 Ukrainian conscripts pushed in without any accompanying heavy equipment, the latter group apparently raw conscripts with no real training. This reeks of desperation and is simply a waste of soldiers' lives. If you can even call some of these men soldiers at this point.


    Last edited by Ispan on Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Regular Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:19 pm

    At this point MOD would be doing damage assessment for UA. Best to do address the issues behind closed doors. As mentioned before, aerostats acting like AWACS sounds like brilliant solution to catch or warn for drone strikes.

    By the way, what’s up with that armoured URAL? Makes no sense, there are already Ural VPK and Typhoons in various configurations for mass deployment, not to mention more sophisticated Kamaz ones. Are they have nothing better to do in Ufa?

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    Post  GarryB Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:38 pm

    Never said any of that Garry and you should know better as you have known me for years.

    Demanding the Russians protect everything completely is unreasonable... the Orcs are not stupid and they have the resources of HATO to find targets and gaps where they can sneak through... ironically instead of saying Putin should be replaced like the doomsayers you should be commenting that all the resources and spy power of the west and they managed to lose some drones for the price of three Russian soldiers lives... how many months of planning and millions of dollars likely spent on that attack meanwhile every little attack by their forces in Ukraine costs them 20 times as many soldiers...

    Why should the Russian administration even care... with that level of incompetence on the other side Russia can continue for years.

    A single plane crash would cost them more than this so called successful attack by HATO led Orcs...

    But what is killing the Ukrops is the firepower advantage Russians have in company support weapons, namely mortars and specifically AGS-17 grenade launchers.

    Grenade launchers are devastating weapons that are horribly effective.

    At this point MOD would be doing damage assessment for UA. Best to do address the issues behind closed doors. As mentioned before, aerostats acting like AWACS sounds like brilliant solution to catch or warn for drone strikes.

    They sold several aerostats to China for use in the mountains... they are both radar and also radio repeating types that can detect low flying threats in mountains and also extend the range of ground radios in mountain areas... they are attached to vans by tethers and often operate at several thousand metres up with the van providing power supply and monitoring... they can operate autonomously for up to 3 months without resupply.

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    Post  sepheronx Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:44 pm

    Actually, please quote me where I said I wanted him gone. Not once did I say he needs to be replaced. You know that too so don't place words in my hands that I didn't type.

    In what I said is the authorities must be prepared that problems will arise with the locals if this isn't dealt with. A missile or drone flying such long distances and only being picked up by shorads then puts into question the air defense systems, or more like, the radar and detection systems.  Or the quality if personnel, or whatever that ultimately falls back on the federal government itself. And that is a real threat might I add.  Especially now that US is pumping even more billions into anti Russian activity within Russia itself.  You know what that means.
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    Post  sepheronx Mon Dec 26, 2022 10:49 pm

    https://t.me/CyberspecNews/14910

    Preliminary assessment of drone crash location at Engels airbase — from Donbas Devushka (edited)

    Also

    Here's your explanation for the drone strikes on Engels

    They're using civilian air corridors. It was also mentioned during the 1st attack

    ---

    ❗ Air defense cannot fully work when civilian aircraft are flying, — retired Colonel of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Mikhail Khodarenok.

    The peculiarity of the work of air defense on aircraft is that there should be no civil aviation in the sky for their full-fledged work.

    Combat aircraft have a "friend-foe" system, but not on civilian ones.

    We have restricted flights in the regions bordering Ukraine and where SMO is conducted. As we can see, the enemy has found a way to strike deep into our territory.

    Therefore, in order for air defense to work effectively, it is necessary to limit civil aviation flights not only in the border regions, but also further. Moreover, a Ukrainian drone could hit a civilian aircraft in the air.

    The situation is very serious," Khodarenok said on the radio.

    https://t.me/CyberspecNews/14921

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    Post  PhSt Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:38 pm

    civilian air corridor, im not an aviation expert but does that mean there are still flights that cross the Russian Pukrainian border? I don't understand how the drones can cross Russian border/ airspace undetected
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Dec 27, 2022 12:33 am

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    Post  PhSt Tue Dec 27, 2022 1:03 am

    NATzO propaganda media is having a field day making a big deal of the drone strike at Engels, Russia needs to BlTCH SLAP NATzO by launching 1000+ cruise missiles asap attack attack
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    Post  Big_Gazza Tue Dec 27, 2022 1:36 am

    PhSt wrote:NATzO propaganda media is having a field day making a big deal of the drone strike at Engels, Russia needs to BlTCH SLAP NATzO by launching 1000+ cruise missiles asap

    NATzO propaganda media have been having a field day since Feb, but their endless stupid BS isn't stopping Russia from working steadily to DISMANTLE their Ukropistan project, nor will it resurrect their 100K+ KIAs or restore health to their legion of permanently disabled WIAs Twisted Evil

    Ignore NAFO-esque media idiots. Don't let Ukropi provocations distract Russia from "the plan" (whatever it may be). Revenge for this shit will be delivered when the Kiev regime is finally CRUSHED and the Collective West is forced to publically choke on its failures.

    russia

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    Post  zorobabel Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:14 am

    A Ukrainian drone striking Engels again is a big deal in the sense that it proves nothing meaningful was apparently done along the Ukraine-Russia border or across the 600km of Russian territory since the last attack. Not the end of the world or anything, but of course embarrassing. We'll get satellite pictures soon but I suspect with nothing being released so far, it probably did no damage to aircraft. There are active production lines for the Tu-160 so even if one was hit, it can be replaced.

    If the problem truly is the 'civilian air corridor' explanation (are civilian aircraft flying across the border with Ukraine and Russia?), then it is a very poor explanation indeed. It means there is no defense, and Ukraine will continue such attacks and increase the volume. NATO no doubt planned and directed the attacks. The first was a 'feeler', sensing the Russian response, which was nothing. Now this is the second feeler. We'll see what the response is. If nothing, regular NATO attacks via Ukraine can be expected against a variety of strategic assets. The aim isn't necessarily destruction but even just an annoying disruption of strategic capability.

    We will have to see how this unfolds.
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Dec 27, 2022 5:16 am

    The biggest mistake of US intelligence , was to tell
    Biden and western leaders that Russia would run out of weapons and collapse internally

    Russia is running the #1 currency of 2022, Budget surplus, Cash surplus, trade with China and East soaring, and has parity with US interest rate

    Back in March and April, I really thought Putin fucked up and opened door for a revolt

    But witnessing the economic rebound, I can say Russia has indeed closed the window on revolution

    US has destroyed EU, but will never get to challenge China , without collapsing Russia, they cannot preserve their hegemony

    And Wang Yi said something many looked over days ago, he hailed "rock solid" ties with Russia

    The Chinese don't say that without reason, they themselves calculated Russian strength and are assured , Russia will maintain its global position and influence and due to it, China has a clean ride to global economic dominance

    The US needed to collapse Russia by proxy, and failed, and that is the fact they hate to admit

    Now they try to stir something in Balkans, to which Russia will respond in a way they don't expect, and if they are so desperate that they will light EU on fire in another direction, then it's clear they are beyond Desperation

    Some strike on Engels is a nothing burger, they sank Moskva, started fires, hit Rostov airbase, hit Saki airbase

    It's all a shame, but changes nothing

    It will not defeat Russia on the battlefield , and thats the main point of provoking the SMO

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    Post  zorobabel Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:11 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:The biggest mistake of US intelligence , was to tell
    Biden and western leaders that Russia would run out of weapons and collapse internally
    No policy makers right now in the US believe they have made a mistake. They all believe they have hit the jackpot. I know several guys who service B-1Bs via Boeing who can't believe their incredible luck.

    The US was running trillion dollar deficits before the war and still is. The US can easily provide $150b per year to Ukraine via budgetary support and weapons support indefinitely. Funding for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has mostly dried up, and that was about $300 billion per year. Someone has to get paid.
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    Post  higurashihougi Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:18 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34 - Page 38 Untitl14

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:19 am

    Air defense cannot fully work when civilian aircraft are flying, — retired Colonel of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Mikhail Khodarenok.

    The peculiarity of the work of air defense on aircraft is that there should be no civil aviation in the sky for their full-fledged work.

    Combat aircraft have a "friend-foe" system, but not on civilian ones.

    We have restricted flights in the regions bordering Ukraine and where SMO is conducted. As we can see, the enemy has found a way to strike deep into our territory.

    Therefore, in order for air defense to work effectively, it is necessary to limit civil aviation flights not only in the border regions, but also further. Moreover, a Ukrainian drone could hit a civilian aircraft in the air.

    The situation is very serious," Khodarenok said on the radio.

    https://t.me/CyberspecNews/14921

    Why didn't they take such a decision after the first attack?

    Dickheads

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    Post  Sujoy Tue Dec 27, 2022 10:01 am

    Reality is hitting home. 90% of Ukrainian drones knocked off by Russian EW. 90% is an incredible strike rate.

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:12 am

    Post  GarryB Yesterday at 10:38 pm

    Never said any of that Garry and you should know better as you have known me for years.

    Demanding the Russians protect everything completely is unreasonable...


    It is not "unreasonable" bro.
    It is impossible.
    Sometimes I really have a feeling that some of us really didn't get the vision of this war yet.
    It is a civil war.
    As easy as that.
    Another struggle that run havoc through the entire Soviet Union from the mid-80s.
    The biggest and most brutal one, because involves the biggest parts of the former SU.
    There is no language or cultural barrier among the opposing forces. They are the same people, mostly.
    You can't effectively fight sabotage units, because those are already well-established in Russian society.
    They can be just regular guys you are meeting each day in the metro. Or working with them for years. It can be your wife or a husband. A brother-in-law...
    We are discussing the case when someone simply drove a car next to the military airfield, take out, took a commercial drone he purchased on Aliexpress two days earlier, glued an IED to it, and flow it above the fence. The whole action took TWO MINUTES. Or something.
    An AWACS?
    A CAP?
    Seriously? scratch
    Did you think about that for more than two seconds?
    Yesterday another sabotage group was physically liquidated.
    Graphic warning : https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/38771
    FSB is taking those groups one by one. We talk about tens of liquidated SOF officers.
    Do you realize the number of investments and the level of motivation?
    Every single officer is a million-grade weapon. And they are spent on fertilizing some forests.
    Ukrs can't fight a war. This is a Russkie carried war from the very beginning. On the Russkie terms.
    But they can do sabotage. If a country is involved in sabotage  - sure they can succeed. They will do some damage. An incel fiesta can be carried out along the twitter.
    And who cares? Does it changes anything?

    It was yesterday when North Korea paraded four drones all the way to Seul. A perfectly well developed country covered by its own AD systems and American Patriots. A country on a wage of war, high alert. And out of four, one was able to fly back home ... Yet nobody is yapping about humiliation or something .. wonder why? dunno

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    Post  famschopman Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:30 am


    Why didn't they take such a decision after the first attack? Dickheads

    Because Russia recently realized that after WW2 they didn't had major escalations like this anymore and all processes need to be reevaluated and adjusted. The mobilization exposed various issues in process and execution, the logistics in the initial phase were a disaster with major material losses, decision making too slow and inefficient (was also adjusted with a new command structure), the use of drones were underestimated as they were still relying on older military doctrines. A lot of mistakes were made and will still be made moving forward but in the end, after applying adjustment after adjustment, you end up with a modernized, agile and efficient military organization.

    Trying to turn a big oil tanker takes time. Something seemingly simple as removing the civilian air traffic will probably need to go through multiple departments, channels with reports and recommendations being shared, discussed and approvals on various levels before the final decision is made. It's how big corporations, and big governments work. Sluggish, slow, risk aversive, trying to avoid accountability, etc.

    I think this is also why Putin recently emphasized removal of bureaucracy and formalization. Speed and agility is what matters.
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:41 am

    As I said above re the Russian advances against HIMARs, whilst the Ukies etc might crow about these airfield attacks they have woken up Russian AD, forcing them to re-evaluate the effectiveness of their procedures.

    I doubt that this is really what the US wanted to happen.

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    Post  GarryB Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:57 am

    A missile or drone flying such long distances and only being picked up by shorads then puts into question the air defense systems, or more like, the radar and detection systems.

    Bombers, drones, cruise missiles... all try to have small RCS and fly very low... do you think it is a coincidence... a mistake... a happy accident... do you think the west invested in drones because they can't afford anything better?

    Cruise missiles and drones are difficult targets... hense their popularity and widespread adoption... in comparison HATO air defences didn't even notice Tu-141 drones flying through its airspace through multiple countries...

    There are also tactics the operators can use to make their weapons even harder to deal with.

     Or the quality if personnel, or whatever that ultimately falls back on the federal government itself.

    Doomsayer panic right there.... fire everyone because a drone made it to an airfield... pathetic.

    What happens after you fire everyone and the same thing happens again... why do you think firing people solves such problems?

    Problems every country on the planet would struggle with...

    And that is a real threat might I add.  Especially now that US is pumping even more billions into anti Russian activity within Russia itself.  You know what that means.

    I know exactly what it means... the west is spending vastly more on this war than Russia is so Kiev should be winning right now if it can be accepted that the one that spends the most gets the best returns, and to be honest I am really not seeing three dead soldiers as something to fire the entire federal government over...

    Here's your explanation for the drone strikes on Engels

    They're using civilian air corridors. It was also mentioned during the 1st attack

    I mentioned that possibility after the first attack too if you would like to check... it would not surprise me if they used civilian aircraft TACAN signals to look like civilian traffic... the new guys that replace all the people you just fired will want to keep their jobs so presumably will start shooting down suspect civilian aircraft because they wont want to be fired too... how many people will that kill?

    Therefore, in order for air defense to work effectively, it is necessary to limit civil aviation flights not only in the border regions, but also further. Moreover, a Ukrainian drone could hit a civilian aircraft in the air.

    Another factor he does not mention is the low RCS of the drones, so when you tune your air defence to see targets that are that small all of a sudden you start getting birds on your display which would also complicate things...

    The US was running trillion dollar deficits before the war and still is. The US can easily provide $150b per year to Ukraine via budgetary support and weapons support indefinitely. Funding for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has mostly dried up, and that was about $300 billion per year. Someone has to get paid.

    Their problem is that they put Russia out of SWIFT, which was the defacto international banking system so now for anyone to buy the resources of Russia, whether it is energy or metals or food or fertiliser... they are going to have to use the alternative to SWIFT to pay for whatever they want to buy.

    This will lead to western pressure on those countries that continue to trade with Russia but that will just lead to those countries getting rid of trade in US dollars and Euros to avoid being sanctioned and losing their money in the hands of the west.

    Oil caps have led to Russia building its own oil tanker fleet... they have been buying old ships for the last few years that will fill the gaps while brand new ships are built and of course the western insurance companies and brokerage companies that dominated the world trade in Russian goods... most things Russia sold to the world had money going to Europe to facilitate is sale and delivery but now that is broken too... this is a real separation from Russia and the west so the west will no longer get a cut when Russia sells oil to some country for shipping or insurance... all this at a time when they are sending money and weapons to Ukraine... weapons and ammo they will have to pay top dollar to restock their own inventories, countries in eastern europe that kept soviet era vehicles and weapons because the ammo was cheaper will now buy HATO standard weapons and ammo that will cost them top dollar that they likely wont be allowed to make for themselves, not to mention the price of energy... and th expansion of countries joining BRICS who wont be using US dollars for anything... the west has just cut itself from a large chunk of the worlds resources and a significant chunk of their real income for a broken country they have no interest in really saving...

    Why didn't they take such a decision after the first attack?

    Dickheads

    They clearly thought restricting civilian aircraft near the combat area and adjacent areas would be enough... now they are extending the no fly zones further.

    It will be a case of necessity... if you don't have to do something then it is cheaper to not do it, but it is clear they now have to do it.

    It is not "unreasonable" bro.
    It is impossible.
    Sometimes I really have a feeling that some of us really didn't get the vision of this war yet.
    It is a civil war.
    As easy as that.

    The reality of any war is you take losses... if you don't want to lose a single piece in chess then don't bother playing.

    Kids play war games where their soldiers kill the bad guys soldiers without losing any of their own soldiers, which is why kids should learn about real wars and realise they are not fun, they are dangerous and dirty and deadly games.

    That video about that cocksucker training the Orcs who says they are fighting the good fight is hilarious... Putin is not fighting this war for domination of Europe, this is colonial western countries poking the bear to get him to react to try to destroy him... ooh your bear killed my poodle so now you need to put it down... well the Russian people understand why the Bear reacted the way it did... the west got the reaction they were trying to get and now they think the world should come together and condemn Putin for being some monster for starting this war when he is just finishing it... by letting the west damage the west.

    The mobilization exposed various issues in process and execution, the logistics in the initial phase were a disaster with major material losses,

    There was nothing perfect about the initial strike, but there was a potential for the Orcs to fold and surrender and for it all to be much less bloody than it has been, which is what Putin really wanted... for the Ukrainians to wake up and realise they were being used as cannon fodder and for them to stand up to their western masters and say no. Instead the didn't and the current situation is the result... it is not ideal but I think the initial attack was necessary to tie down their rather large force and also give them the option to make this a minor skirmish with low fatalities.

    As I said above re the Russian advances against HIMARs, whilst the Ukies etc might crow about these airfield attacks they have woken up Russian AD, forcing them to re-evaluate the effectiveness of their procedures.

    I doubt that this is really what the US wanted to happen.

    The HATO lack of IADS and its over reliance on air power and the ongoing threat that even cold war era Soviet air defence systems represent even after the network has been dismantled shows HATO is in serious trouble in WWIII and their abundance of over priced aircraft wont last for very long in that sort of environment.

    Their ambush tactics and mobile artillery strategies are more like pin prick attacks rather than the savage death of 1,000 cuts they are supposed to be... I actually think the real reason Finland is running to HATO is that they realise they don't have enough bodies to throw at the Russians to do what they thought they could do... the winter war requires a big slow clumsy Soviet force badly led and badly supported and this conflict shows that is not the case by a long shot...

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    Post  Hole Tue Dec 27, 2022 1:24 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34 - Page 38 Fk-j-e10

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    SolidarityWithRussia


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    Post  SolidarityWithRussia Tue Dec 27, 2022 1:37 pm

    Do the captured industrial capacities in the Donbass have any significant positive effects on the economy in Russia?
    Hole
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    Post  Hole Tue Dec 27, 2022 1:40 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34 - Page 38 Fk-xmz10
    Medvedev strikes again.  Laughing
    Break-up of the US in smaller states.

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    Post  Dr.Snufflebug Tue Dec 27, 2022 2:06 pm

    Medvedev was joking about the flurry of outrageous "predictions" stemming from the usual suspects, and provided some of his own.

    Naturally, the usual suspects didn't get it. "Medvedev is unhinged!" ...Humor.

    Musk got it though.

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    Post  PhSt Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:22 pm

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34 - Page 38 Fk-xmz10

    Since the US and its NATzO lackeys love to bitch about the lack of "Freedoms" in both Russia's and China's ethnic minority regions, why don't the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the rest of the West make an example to the world and start carving out Autonomous regions or republics of its ethnic minorities instead of putting them in disproportionately small "Reserves". Imagine the outrage in the west if Russia or China start putting their ethnic minorities in reserves, but when its done in the west apparently its No big deal and that minorities should even the thankful? This pathetic double standards needs to be exposed on a daily basis Rolling Eyes

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:34 pm

    SolidaritywithRussia wrote:Do the captured industrial capacities in the Donbass have any significant positive effects on the economy in Russia?

    They help with providing the republics with jobs, and with providing the militias with some equipment, but Russia still covers the budget of the republics

    zorobabel wrote: No policy makers right now in the US believe they have made a mistake. They all believe they have hit the jackpot. I know several guys who service B-1Bs via Boeing who can't believe their incredible luck.

    As I said as far as collapsing Russia, or even challenging China, the ship has sailed

    They can skim money from their own budgets, and get some kickbacks,

    But they know well, facing China in the next decade will be impossible without first collapsing Russia

    They can keep the money machine going, but they won't be leaders of oil trade in yuan, insurance and shipping on LNG and Asian regional trade, middle eastern oil flow, international payment system, and so on as the hegemony ends -

    Remember they can spend trillions, but this is not the same as 1941 where they produced tanks, ships, planes to outproduce axis

    Right now Russian industry produces more tu160, t90, su57, su34, while the US cannot replace lost equipment such as some artillery shells of 155mm calibre

    Without industrial base, it was foolish to enter into this proxy , and the worse part is, printing only solves temporary problems, but the civilian life started to suffer to maintain the money flow to the politicians

    But the US intelligence really bet on Russia collapsing by summer/fall , and that is a mistake on the level of GWOT

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