Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

On troop numbers, I suspect Putin was speaking in his politician not military capacity.

He's saying "very few of the mobilised are seeing battle".
Why? Because its true... and because its politics.

However, lets look at the numbers. 180k originally used in the Pukraine.
330k or so have been mobilised through volunteers and formal mobilisation.
Then you have Wagner/foreign ontop.

My belief is that the mobilised will take the place of troops eg defending the Kurils and Caususes etc.
Which will free under contract troops to move to the Pukraine.

Russia has high calibre troops, logistics and vast land arnaments.
What does the Pukraine have? A ragbag of forced conscripts, rusty GATO shit, Nazi scum and a bit of firewood.

@Hole There are missile barrages every week. Not an indication of anything.

An attack from the north will be problematic with all the recently introduced minefields. They first need to be cleared before putting infantry at risk.

Their real time intelligence sucks then.

If Ukrs are importing 155 mm shells and artillery , then this must mean they are , or should be running low on 152 mm shells . I doubt they still have production facility for these . Must have been hit by now , also no electricity for furnaces . And they seem to be conducting effective artillery duel against Russia . How many shells are the Russians firing ? How many are Ukrs firing ? How are they still managing to transport all this across Polish border ? Without being hit or observed ! All this ammo , must make a large cargo , visible from Jupiter ! No human Intel on the ground ? No attempt to destroy cargo ? Something does not make sense .

Can do it with a smartphone too.

Hole wrote " There were multiple hits against storage facilities closer to the frontline with huge losses of ammo that was brought in over 1.000+km. A lot of wasted fuel and manpower on the side of the NATO/UkroNazis. "  But why allow the cargo to come in 1000+km ? When cargo comes in , it must do so by a limited number of Road and Rail crossings by Poland . The cargo is not dispersed by carriage through many side Roads , or dispersed along the countryside or frontlines , into tiny packages . Why not hit the cargo , when it is assembled into small area on Roads and Rail near Poland ? Once cargo destroyed , then Road and Rail crossings also destroyed , but no choice in this . Come to think about it , Road and Rail will be destroyed anyhow , might as well destroy all Road and Rail crossings into Ukraine from all borders . This will stop all heavy traffic , but small arms can still come in by dirt Roads or Horses . It will change things a lot . Ukrs can still import civilian goods by Ships , but these can be inspected by Russia at Sea !

@ Alamo


......or madly following the orders of blind men .


Edit : If what Russia claims to be true , ie: the goal of uniting the four oblast only . Then it has no intention of capturing new territory to the West of the River , and therefore does not need the Bridges on Dnieper River , which only serve to supply Ukrs troops in the East . These must also be destroyed .

Good maps of potential winter offensive

РЕЙД operations termed by the general staff, would be to rapidly advance, and clear the zone of Ukrainian army, then leave sensors and mines across the region, as the cities are emptying of civilians

Then Russian army would withdraw back to the border , where defensive fortifications in voronezh and Belgorod are already being built

This way they can demilitarize the zone , and withdraw afterwards

РЕЙД operations are essentially like force recon, or recon in force how we saw in March, rapid movement, with massive bombardment to clear the AOR of ukros, then withdrawing behind pre-planned defenses and mining the zone between the so called "wagner line" and the acceptable nazi nest

Russian forces would only occupy the zones shown temporarily to give time to Ukrainian troops and civilians to exit from 2 corridors, the nazi one, or to Russia

The advances on Pavlovka, Opytnoye, Marinka, and Chasov Yar actually have a huge significance

If anyone has seen maps of Ukrainian reserves in this area, Ugledar-Gulyai-Pole,

It makes sense, in Kiev there is a delusion that western advisors have not been able to cull, that they can press an offensive from Ugledar to Mariupol

They cannot do this due to the capture of those settlements in donbass leading to Artemovsk, which is a vacuum of reserve units initially built up for na offensive on Mariupol

This is also further cementing the belief that an offensive in Chernigov, Sumy, and Kharkov is imminent, if not only to draw out forces from the south, but also to annihilate them in one go , while in the south the progressive warfare to Slavyansk continues

Hole wrote " The stuff comes in in hundreds of trucks, mostly civilian. Instead of bombing them Russia waits until the cargo is unloaded in some depot close to the front and then destroys hundreds of tons at once. Simpler. Cheaper. And the enemy waists a lot of energy on the transport. If we consider the reports from the Ukro side and their 24/7 complaints about a lack of artillery support, lack of equipment and the return of the famous pickle jars to their hideouts I would say that the russian approach
works rather good. "


If stuff coming in hundreds of Trucks , then best crater the Roads , then nothing comes through . Waiting until cargo is in ammo depot , is too late . They could be already using it . The forum reported artillery duels , so this indicated a like for like exchange , involving many rounds fired . Iran makes MRBM with cratering warhead . Also destroy all Bridges on Dnieper . If they hit Crimea Bridge again , so what ! Russia can repair , Ukraine can not .

Does it end well for the Russians ? They seem to be firing a lot of shells . Must be millions by now . Cheaper to destroy the Roads and Rail and Bridges . You can not repair a Road , under bombardment . All vehicles for repair are dust . And recovery vehicles to remove the wreckage are dust . Ad infinitum........