This number does not justify any serious modernization.
Conversely reduced numbers means navigation updates could be ad hoc and cheap... a modern cell phone could replace the entire navigation system using a US supplied military Navstar receiver...
I have already read some phantasmagoria on TG about equipping them with airliners transponders to fool the Russian AD systems and releasing them from "some other country".
You think they wouldn't do it?
The Israelis used Russian recon planes to hide behind while attacking targets in Syria, do you think they would draw a line that might get a civilian airliner shot down... over the UKRAINE.
People have a strange habit to overcomplicate the things that are bloody easy, or digging out some conspiracy theories.
Well technically it is what the hijackers did on 11/9.
They have few pcs left, will just attach FABs to it with glue and rope, and release in terrorist attacks hoping it will land anywhere to make some damage.
And that's it.
They disguised HE as rolls of material to hit the Crimean bridge, but they will just launch some old thing they had in storage and just hope... underestimating your enemy is why such things happen...
Biggest mistake is to not put enough Shorads around those strategic bases. They have 250+ Tunguska, 200+ pantsir and plenty of other igla 10, Osa akm and buks. The question is why they didn't deploy them around those bases. The military analysts underestimated the ukro ability and willingness to use long range drones despite them using such weapons in the last months. The AD command also underestimated them and didn't deploy enough system eventhough they have hundreds of them.
Those drones were shot down.
What if the recon drone had been packed with high level radioactive waste from one of Ukraine's reactors?
Except that would actually suit Russia better than Kiev or Washington, as it would expose the Orcs to being actual terrorists... the effect of such waste would be relatively limited and could be cleaned up over a period of time, while the reputation of the Orcs saving Europe from the Russian aggression would take a serious hit if they become nuclear terrorists... it would be a significant hit for PR, but it would be bad for the Orcs and the west and good for Russia and neutrals sitting on the fence.
Would you still be treating it as only burn marks?
Their level of success determines the Russian response... if that truck bomb on the Crimea bridge had just left scorch marks then their power network might have been left largely intact... but...
Conversely if they had filled the truck with nuclear waste as well as the bombs Zelensky might be dead along with as many of his like minded colleagues as possible, with the hope that the next group to replace them are not so suicidal.
If Zelensky became effective or just dangerous and unpredictable then he would be worth removing... currently... he isn't.
But the only reason Ukraine is even lasting this long is because Putin refuses to this day to reply the mass amount of men needed, so that forces the army to go at a snails pace because they are often going against heavily defended areas which insufficient numbers
The longer this thing takes the longer European airlines suffer from fuel costs and from having to fly around Russian air space, the longer this takes the more the west is destroying its stranglehold on the world... their Oil price cap has led to Russia buying up its own tanker fleet and forced them to set up insurance companies instead of using the ones in London like everyone else does... and anyone wanting to buy Russian oil will have to find different insurance companies too because Russia wont sell at the price cap to anyone, which means finding other transport options and other shipping insurance options from London for insurance and Greece and Cyprus and Germany for shipping... the next thing will be Russian sports shifting from European competitions to Asian ones, and such a cultural shift will be good for the Russian people.
There will be no major offensive in the foreseeable future!
The forces for a offensive would be too small. 150k is combat reserve and wouldn't be enough to take Kiev or western border of Ukraine. Could of course be some kind of Maskirovka...who knows?!
I do agree, but when they get around to offensives I would expect Orc defences to fold, plus I doubt they will be assaulting any big cities any time soon... by the time the offenses start large population centres will be encircled and given the chance to surrender, and if they don't then block off supplies and allow a humanitarian corridor or three for people to leave if they want to... after two months ask for a surrender again and continue... note those corridors are one way only.
A big offensive has only one simple advantage...ending the war very soon, but with high casualties on both sides. I don't know if this in the interest of Russia.
Exactly, though I am not so sure Russian casualties will be enormous because they wont be city fighting, but the longer this conflict takes the more damage and more cost to the west which is far more important than anything happening in Ukraine on the grand scale of things.
but remember Putin himself, for better or worse, said this war has no plans for territorial conquest so do not expect the map to be redrawn all that much.
EU, US, HATO out is the goal, they can all become Amish if they want.
There will be no offensive. There will be a slow bleeding of Ukrainian forces. More than 300k mobilized is probably far too little for a large offensive.
The current force has about 70K fighting men, and according to the post above more than twice that (150K) are in combat training... so when they join the fray that means they have three times more fighting men than they had when they surrounded Kiev, so if they want to mount offensives they certainly could and with improved gear and proper theatre specific training I would say they will do even better this time because I don't think the Orcs have the command and communication to organise and operate as large groups, which means the Russian forces will likely savage them in little bite sized packets... the level of Orc training will have dropped dramatically and their ability to move on the battlefield will be massively reduced too with a lack of military tracked vehicles.
russia voted in 4 new regions. It would be treason against the russian people not to fully liberate those oblasts.
Putin said to Japan that the Kurile Islands cannot be handed back because they are Russian territory, so I don't think he would think differently in those four new Russian regions... it was their choice to make and Putin could not have made it for them but equally he can't take that choice away from them either now they have spoken.
Putin never defined the real goals of that war. The very likely goal is to at least get half of Ukraine. Best scenario is to take the entire Ukraine.
Putin was very clear... people in the west pretend not to understand.
Ukraine needs to be a neutral country that is not controlled by the US or Germany or the EU or in HATO. They initially said joining the EU would be fine but then the EU started talking about an EU military force which torpedos that.
Russia wants a Ukraine that will not turn on them again, whether that is as part of Russia or as separate neutral regions is up to the Ukrainian people that survive to vote... Ukrainian acts to "defend" themselves... including the last 8 years defending themselves from a Russian invasion in 2014, have only made their own position worse as pro west Ukrainians get conscripted and killed or civilians leave for Europe...
Kiev will likely demand that Ukrainians around the world get a vote, but Russia wont let them stack the deck like that...
It will be funny because many fled the Ukraine because they committed war crimes.... if they try to flood back to vote they might get a tap on the shoulder and a nice new set of silver matching bracelets...
The Minsk agreements were a scam meant to stall time and allow Ukraine to build up defensive capabilities. Sadly Russia fell for it, and even today Donetsk, a Russian city, is being shelled daily without recourse.
Russia negotiated in good faith... the Ukraine could not have gotten away with it without the full support of German and France, so cutting off cheap energy sales to the EU and other cutting of relations and ties is a good result really, and now it is all out in the open Donetsk has a much brighter future than it did this time last year, as do other regions joining Russia... the remaining parts can remain stewing for a lot longer...
A quote from Angela Merkel
While that is very true... and that fucking bitch should be embarrassed at her own role in that deception, Russia was in no position to know, and was not really in a position to take on the entire west like they are doing right now. Without experience in Syria and extra work on weapons and drones and new engines and components for themselves they would have been rather more damaged by the actions of the western sanctions that would have been imposed.
When the EU starts enjoying power cuts later this winter hopefully she can reflect on the damage she helped to cause... there are going to be more dead German pensioners dying for Nazis again... deja vu.
Bakhmut is the gift that just keeps on giving. A constantly refreshed supply for the meat grinder. Any RA activity just leads to more on the way, A real honey trap.
Its almost as if Kiev is onside with the Russians demilitarisation plan.
They must be stark staring mad.
It is what Liman could have become if they had chosen to stay and fight for that useless town.
There are several reasons. Deteriorating weather, the need to increase production for mass use, plus perhaps there is an accumulation of drones for mass strikes that will accompany offensives in winter.
There is no data on the rate and volume of production of these drones in #Iran and #Russia, although Iranian military transport planes continue to fly to #Moscow with enviable regularity, so there is a flow of cargo. There is no intelligible information in the public domain about the operation of the Gerans in sub-zero temperatures.
After their use and experience in combat they might have some domestic upgrades of their own... perhaps adding optics and AI to hit moving targets in the terminal phase? Or maybe optical seeker so the targets can be marked with a coded laser beam to hit specific moving targets...
Meanwhile, the #ZNPP staff was finally cleaned up - those who did not sign a contract with Rosatom were removed from the plant + tipsters from the AFU were cleaned up.
Tipsters meaning moles...
Partly, as the capture of #Artemovsk will force the AFU to rebuild its defences in #Donbass, but it is important to understand that until #Maryinka and #Avdeyevka are captured, shelling from barrel artillery will continue in its current mode. Stopping the shelling of #Donetsk requires serious movement west of #Donetsk towards #Krasnoarmeysk, where #Krasnogorovka, #Selidovo, #Kurakhovo and so on must also be taken.
Which means the amount of territory the Russians are going to take if the boundaries of the districts that voted to join the Russian Federation, plus the range of Ukrainian artillery... let them have ATCMS... that is 300km...
As we can tell from the quote from Angela Merkel (probably the most influential EU figure in the last 40 years), the West sees the 8 years of frozen conflict as a major win.
Ukraine only losing 20% of its territory when half the population was pro-Rus in 2014 is definitely considered a win.
Win or not, the goal was supposed to be the fall of Putin and the economic and military collapse of Russia... Afghanistan 2 so to speak, and it has had the reverse effect and in fact has seriously damaged the wests position in a wide range of areas...
Ukraine is not over and if they get out of this just losing what they have already lost they will be very very lucky... I rather suspect Zelensky is going to push the right button and become worth eliminating by the Orc side and then things will be more interesting... but lets give it a year or two first...
If it was a dirty bomb, that would have disabled a key facility.
Bullshit, they train to operate in NBC equipment, operations could have carried on as normal no problem.