Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

According to the head of the Main Military Medical Administration of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation Dmitry Trishkin, the mortality rate of the wounded delivered to medical facilities is less than half a percent, but not all of them can return to the front because of serious injuries.

Thus, 97% of military personnel return to the combat zone after treatment.

https://twitter.com/Spriter0000/status/1604216696872607744?cxt=HHwWgIC9_cKlqcMsAAAA

I somewhat agree, I think the 300,000 are to do three things:

1. Liberate rest of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaprozhiye.

2. Capture Kharkov, Chernigov, Sumy, and maybe Odessa as is practicable (also when high ranking officials in Putin's government speak of referendum in these territories I think we can use that as proof that this is what the next stage of this war is going to be).

3. Dig in and hold the newly liberated territories. Errr mah gaw, Russia is building trenches and fortifications. Well yes, Ukraine does get new nasty toys from NATO every now and again, but they still lack the manpower, the tools, and the means to make significant breakthrough.

Again, Putin has said he has no desire to occupy Ukraine, and I think all things considered we can take him at his word because the actions of the Russian army have held to the reality of his statements. Zaprozhiye, and Kherson protect Crimea. Putin may well eventually cede some of Kherson and Zaprozhiye back to Ukraine but he will not cede the rivers and power plants that provide Crimea with electricity and water. As Crimea is part of Russia, securing the territories that supply Crimea with Water and electricity is a must. Kharkov, Sumy, and Chernigov will probably also be incorporated into Russia for the same reason. If these territories are liberated, or at least occupied then Ukraine cannot lob shells and rockets into Russian towns and cities in Belgorod and Kursk. Other than these, and maybe Odessa and Nikolayevsk, I don't see Russia taking too much territory in the next offensive.

As far as Kiev? No, Putin may launch a new feint on Kiev, but that is not going to be the new theater at least for a while. I think year by year, Ukraine gets progressively smaller. In 2022 it was parts or all of Donbass, Zaprozhiye, and Kherson. In 2023 its probably Kharkov, Chernigov, and Sumy, in 2024 its probably Poltava and at least half of Dnipro-Petrovsk. I think after each new territory is taken Putin will offer the Ukrainians one more chance to negotiate and have the good sense to declare neutrality.

Those who say but the Lolwaffle Wadafuqmach and Keinmarine are getting new wonderwaffles all the time and Russia is doomed or that Russia needs to hasten the end of the war are completely wrong. Russia has all the time in the world to drain Ukraine and the west of money, material, and manpower. This winter, Ukraine's power grid and rails go off line and by this summer Ukraine will be a third world nation on Europe's door step. In fact, in many ways it already is.

Western leaders are driven by greed. The United States ultimately quit Iraq because the oil revenue never allowed the project to pay for itself. The EU was hoping that Ukraine would offset some of their power needs and now the EU has to give Ukraine electricity. They hoped Ukraine could smash the Russian army. Instead one organically Ukrainian army and one organically NATO army have been crushed. They thought the sanctions would shatter Russia's economy, it was a clutching at straws type hope because if there is one country on this planet that is capable of autarky its Russia (large industrial base, vast amount of raw materials, technologically advanced populace [yes, there are doubtless people in the taiga who have to use an outhouse, but well get into the Appalachians about 100 miles from Pittsburgh and there are people with outhouses. West Virginia and Flint, MI have no access to safe drinking water, and this is in the heart of the alleged hyperpower]).

Sure, the EU leadership will be able to hang on to power for the near future, but the European people are already incensed by reduced standards of living, a refugee crisis, rolling blackouts, and economic decline and we are only a year into a project that will last 10 to 20 years.


By the way, I think the Zelensky government folds as soon as Ukrainians see how much better life is in Russia's new oblasts and republics than it is in Nazi Banderastan. If People in Kiev are freezing, have to stand in line for fresh water, and are generally miserable and they look across at Chernigov, Sumy and the like and see those towns and settlements have heat, electricity, water, freedom of religion, freedom of press, etc some will double down on their efforts to fight Russia, but a large segment will also decide the oligarchs should hang from lightpoles and that Zelensky should either seek peace or be saran wrapped to a lightpole, stripped naked, and flogged.