Carthage must be destroyed (Carthago delenda est)
In 150 BC, the destruction of Carthage for Rome no longer made much sense. Having won the first two Punic wars, he began to reign supreme in the Mediterranean, however , the prominent Roman politician Cato the Censor (Marcus Porcius Cato), who had an acute antipathy for the once powerful enemy, ended all his speeches in the Senate with just such words, as a result of which the idea became popular and led to the third war in a row, which destroyed Carthage. In our case we are talking, of course, not about the physical destruction of everything that is within the borders of today's Ukraine, but about the complete (once and for all) elimination of the existential military and terrorist threat that really hangs over Russia from the southwest. What has been started so resolutely should be completed by all means in the same manner, without turning off and not stopping halfway, casting aside doubts, not succumbing to any good promises. Oddly enough, words that were repeated like a spell by a warlike ancient Roman more than two thousand years ago can help in this.
Estimated map of Russia by 2024 ( author 's pic based on MapOfTheWorld.ru )
Why we cannot fail to win
1. According to Rosstat, as of January 1, 2022, the population of Russia was 145.5 million people. As of 01.03, a little more than 6 million lived in four new subjects. Due to the fact that part of our territory is occupied by Ukrainians, it is difficult to give an exact figure now, so we will focus on 150 million. It is much more difficult to estimate the population of Ukraine, but there is information that under the control of the Kiev regime is currently home to 27-29 million ( reference 1 ). Thus, our total mobilization potential, announced by the Minister of Defense (25 million - reference 2 ), is commensurate with the entire Ukrainian population, including infants. Taking into account the heavy losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (VFU) on the battlefield, the Ukronazis will not be able to defeat us purely physically.
2. We ourselves develop military equipment, weapons, ammunition and equipment, produce them in large quantities and are practically independent of imports. In the course of the NMD , the number of the latest models of weapons and military equipment will rapidly increase, and where it is necessary to replace what is in the troops - in fact, this will become a new (accelerated) stage in the rearmament of the army. Khokhols are almost completely dependent on imports, the volume of which does not cover all the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Kiev regime receives mainly obsolete weapons and military equipment removed from storage. Their reserves are already running out, and the West does not want to share the latest developments. In addition, the production capabilities of the Western military-industrial complex are limited. Even if a "green light" is given to the supply of something new, it will take years.
3. Thanks to the timely measures taken (those that the Government has been taking for eight years), our economy and financial system are working practically as usual . Certainly, there are some painful inconveniences from sanctions, but they are not of a fundamental and even more catastrophic nature, and, most likely, will be minimized in the foreseeable future. Ukraine, at the same time, finally became a beggar country, a dependent, a "professional beggar." A state with a collapsed economy and a state budget, two-thirds of whose revenues are formed by Western aid ( link 3 ), cannot win the war. Moreover, the generosity of sponsors is a very situational thing.
4. Our political system is strong and fairly democratic (so much so that it not only allows criticism, but often accepts it as a guide to action). The leader of the nation is resolute, firm in his convictions, cheerful and looks much younger than his years. The traditional values professed by him, the gathering of Russian lands, the emergence of Russia as one of the poles of the multipolar world, combined with a more or less stable economic situation in the country, provide him with a consistently high rating of trust in the Russian society. The Kyiv regime, in turn, became absolutely authoritarian, reactionary and inhuman. For some time he will still last (due to the general lies in the media field), but his days are already numbered.
What does it take to win
1. A tougher and clearer political stance towards Ukraine. Perhaps it is such, but for a limited circle of people. Society, however, is still not quite clear on the goals of the SMO, which gives rise to conjectures and doubts. Most annoying are the ongoing statements about readiness for negotiations, which, unfortunately, are heard even from the lips of the Supreme and Lavrov. I admit that this is just a diplomatic trick, since the time has not yet come for a frank statement of the issue. However, sooner or later, the leadership of the country must declare: NO NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE CRIMINAL Neo-Nazi regime CAN BE - only UNCONDITIONAL SURPRISE. Otherwise, the people simply will not understand the government. Any agreement signed by Kyiv or the West is not worth a penny. We are scientists. We don't need Khasavyurt-2 and we don't need a second SVO in Ukraine.
2. Less reverent (sparing) attitude towards any objects on the territory of Ukraine, except for buildings that may contain civilians (the term "civilians" does not apply to employees of Ukroboronprom). In other words, we must ruthlessly destroy enemy infrastructure that directly or indirectly helps the Nazis to fight. Three series of massive strikes with long-range missiles and strike UAVs (since 10.10) are certainly pleasing, but stop this is not possible. CHPs and TPPs should be maintained in a stably severe (non-operating or barely operating) condition. Darkness and cold must fall on Hochland this winter. But the most painful issue is the railway lines, through which reserves and Western equipment continue to flow to the front line without any problems. The theater of operations must be isolated by destroying the bridges in Western Ukraine and across the Dnieper.
3. Tougher methods of warfare based on the use of ammunition approaching tactical nuclear weapons in power, the use of aviation in the maximum damage regime (instead of the minimum risk regime currently practiced) and a multiple increase in the supply of drones to the troops - kamikaze and reconnaissance UAVs. This topic deserves to be devoted to a separate entry (or entries), but here it is worth clarifying that in the first case, we mean the thermobaric RS of the Tornado-S and Solntsepyok complexes, capable of folding buildings and burning entire fortified areas, in the second − classic bombardment of enemy positions and reserves on the march after complete suppression of air defense (except for MANPADS) with Kh-31PD missiles, in the third – flocks of drones, continuously "hanging" over the front and rear and attacking or transmitting the coordinates of targets as they advance.
4. Unofficial introduction of a no-fly zone over the territory of Ukraine, covering not only air, but also outer space. It's no secret that Kyiv does not have its own orbital constellation, and all the intelligence obtained by spy satellites, he receives from the United States and, possibly, from someone else. Without American satellite images, Ukrainians will turn into "blind kittens", which will give us the opportunity to quietly concentrate troops on one or another sector of the front and deliver unexpected blows. At the same time, we have a means capable of blinding and (temporarily?) incapacitating surveillance reconnaissance spacecraft - the Peresvet laser complex ( link 4 ) and the more powerful Zadira. Blinding spacecraft is a good thing, but it would be better to burn out their electronics, turning satellites into space junk. It will be impossible to prove Russia's involvement in this, but for us , in addition to benefiting the SMO, this will be a response to undermining the Nord Streams.
5. The transition from active defense to active offensive operations, the success of which should be facilitated by the factors set out in paragraphs. 2−4. The General Staff, in turn, is obliged to begin demonstrating what is called military art: distracting maneuvers, cutting blows, encirclements, boilers, air and sea landings - what you were taught in the academies, comrade generals. Positional confrontation, advancing three hundred meters a day in certain sectors of the front, and even more so retreat from previously occupied positions and leaving the liberated territories is not at all what society expects from you. SWO cannot last forever. Russians are a very patient people, but do not abuse their patience.
6. More active (real) business assistance to the army in the field. Business, of course, will not be able to increase the production of weapons and military equipment, since this is most often done by highly specialized single suppliers, but it can and should ease the burden on the state budget caused by additional military spending. To understand what is at stake, one must remember the donations that poured into the treasury in 1941-1945. - from citizens, collective farms, the Bolshoi Theater... A low bow to those who are doing the same now, and to volunteers who raise funds, purchase and send copters, thermal imagers, sleeping bags to the front line, but big Russian business is capable of more. For the sake of the victory of the country in which it is registered and earns a lot of money, its owners could easily pay for the public procurement of, say, a division"Coalition-SV", inscribed on their sides "Severstal (Lukoil, Norilsk Nickel ...) - to the front!".
The ultimate goal of the SMO is a world without Ukraine
Frankly speaking, the unconditional surrender mentioned above will not be enough as a result of the SMO. Even if only three regions remain from Ukraine, for example, they will continue to pose a threat to us. Khokhols will remain Khokhols, the West will remain the West (the days of its power are passing, but one should not expect the Western world to fade into the background in the near future). The Ukronazis will first hide, and then, still sponsored from abroad, will begin to create usproblems everywhere they can reach (remember the big troubles brought to Russia by a small Chechnya under the rule of nationalists and Wahhabis). Theoretically , it is possible, of course, to leave a network of military garrisons (bases) and "advisers" in power structures in Ukraine, that is, make it a supervised satellite state, but this is troublesome, unreliable, and this is not our style.
Sometimes they write that Western Ukraine can be given with a light heart to psheks who claim it, as well as to Hungarians and Romanians. I strongly disagree with this - our ancestors won it back from the Germans, restored and developed it after the war. At the end of the SMO, the entire territory of the former Ukrainian SSR should become under our controland only to us. There is no point in worrying about the population of Lvov and neighboring regions, which is supposedly alien and will never become one of its own - in a few generations, after living in a normal country in the absence of Bandera ideology (the task of the FSB), its consciousness will be reformatted in our direction. In general, it clearly follows from what was said in the previous paragraph that if we do not want to shift the solution of the Ukrainian issue onto the shoulders of our descendants, UKRAINE as a STATE should DISAPPEAR from the POLITICAL MAP of the WORLD and become part of Russia.
Carthage must be destroyed. ■