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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #20

    Backman
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    Post  Backman Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:36 am

    sepheronx wrote:Julian and the west in general always gloated over dead russian civilians. Nothing has changed.  Just keep those tweets for later to use against him or his cohorts and call him out for the racist pos him and his friends are.

    Honestly, a guided missile launched at him would spare the rest of the world of his stupidity.

    Long range missiles weren't being sent early in the war. It was about trying to win before. The propaganda was too. But now they are pivoting away from the war and hyping up these terror bombings. It is a good way to spoil the war. Russia said it started the war to end these shellings. And now Ukraine is getting longer range weapons and is going to use them to terror bomb along the border.
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    Post  Regular Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:39 am

    sepheronx wrote:Julian and the west in general always gloated over dead russian civilians. Nothing has changed.  Just keep those tweets for later to use against him or his cohorts and call him out for the racist pos him and his friends are.

    Honestly, a guided missile launched at him would spare the rest of the world of his stupidity.

    He’s a well known scumbag from Syrian conflict.

    Those who order these attacks have name and addresses, who cares about some twitter troll

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:47 am

    This thing about zaluzhny is a rumor, these assholes did no such "tactical retreat"
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:51 am

    Backman wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:Julian and the west in general always gloated over dead russian civilians. Nothing has changed.  Just keep those tweets for later to use against him or his cohorts and call him out for the racist pos him and his friends are.

    Honestly, a guided missile launched at him would spare the rest of the world of his stupidity.

    Long range missiles weren't being sent early in the war. It was about trying to win before. The propaganda was too. But now they are pivoting away from the war and hyping up these terror bombings. It is a good way to spoil the war. Russia said it started the war to end these shellings. And now Ukraine is getting longer range weapons and is going to use them to terror bomb along the border.

    Just means that Ukraine will lose more in the end anyway.

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    Post  Belisarius Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:54 am

    ‼🇺🇦 The major of the city of Slavyansk confirmed - Russian troops are 7-10 kilometers from the city
    https://t.me/TheEternalUkrainian2/10664

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    Post  JohninMK Tue Jul 05, 2022 12:58 am

    ELINT News
    @ELINTNews
    ·
    49m
    I mapped out 8 geolocated HIMARS strike locations (thanks to @COUPSURE
    for thread) and plotted them against a maximum range of 85km. If we take the Melitopol strike, the geolocated launch location (thanks to @War_cube_
    ) demonstrates how just close HIMARS can come to the front


    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #20 - Page 4 FW2qhWoWYAA-2zV?format=jpg&name=small

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #20 - Page 4 FW2qk0xXwAISVSf?format=jpg&name=small

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    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:13 am

    Belisarius wrote:‼🇺🇦 The major of the city of Slavyansk confirmed - Russian troops are 7-10 kilometers from the city
    https://t.me/TheEternalUkrainian2/10664

    Dima from Military Analysis confirmed this much:

    The fall of lisichansk has shortened the front line from 130km to about 55km

    This means 25 BTG can be reduced to about 10 BTG or around that number

    Where the other BTG will go is a good question

    Also Russia is finishing the summer draft, and the Ukaz was passed confirming that small businesses and other enterprises must adhere to military orders and prices, so a preparation is ongoing to secure supplies for a surge in numbers of troops deployed

    It is similar to the industrial mobilization orders of governments during COVID

    One thing is for sure, all hands will be called this winter

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    Post  d_taddei2 Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:16 am

    Slovakia sends four mi-17 helis to Ukraine. Won't being until they are shot down.

    https://gagadget.com/en/war/142917-slovakia-sent-four-mi-17-helicopters-to-ukraine/

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    Post  diabetus Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:30 am

    Backman wrote:Ukraine shill Twitter is elated about the HIMARS being used to kill civilians. They couldn't get an insurgency going inside any areas so they are going to use American supplied HIMARS to shell cities instead.

    This is the strategy. All the propaganda accounts are signal boosting this now. Russia has to respond.
    The US is sending more of these kinds of weapons right now.



    Why respond? Himars isn't really more effective than smerch or Uragan -1M.

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    Post  thegopnik Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:39 am

    they run out of kalibr missiles to kalibrate HIMARS or no?
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    Post  sepheronx Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:41 am

    thegopnik wrote:they run out of kalibr missiles to kalibrate HIMARS or no?

    Are you being dense for the sake of being dense?

    Its rather hard to understand how someone could be on this forum for so long without gaining any form of knowledge?

    I'll give you a hint - HIMARS are mobile and usually most of these systems dont sit after hitting.

    And Kalibr's were never used as far as I am aware against such targets.  The job was instead handed to fighter jets and helicopters to take them out.

    Edit: I am sorry if I was rather rude here but how you were able to make such an equation made me rather upset. I know you are far more smart than that. We all are.

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    Post  Regular Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:59 am

    Russians have shitloads of ears an eyes on the ground, Ukraine seems to love filming their launchers. At some stage they will be parked and then they will get a visit from Kalibr, Iskander or that new shiny missile with TV and UAV datalink that visited few warehouses recently (Yes, I will mention UAVs all the time)

    Hitting moving targets would be possible for aviation only, but Ukraine is not a small country


    Last edited by Regular on Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  sepheronx Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:00 am

    Regular wrote:Russians have shitloads of ears an eyes on the ground, Ukraine seems to love filming their launchers. At some stage they will be parked and then they will get a visit from Kalibr, Iskander or that new shiny missile with TV and UAV datalink (Yes, I will mention UAVs all the time)

    Hitting moving targets would be possible for aviation only, but Ukraine is not a small country

    Something we both can agree on.
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    Post  caveat emptor Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:06 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:

    Lol there was no directive to retreat from "zaluzhny"

    The ones that got out simply abandoned the area

    Kramatorsk is a question of blocking M-03

    Then it's over

    The Severdonetsk and Lisichansk operations were the most similar to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, with the main difference being it was easier to defend severodonetsk and lisichansk due to the river and bridges

    Once Bakhmut and Seversk are taken

    Kramatorsk is a matter of shelling them and storming the city from all sides

    M-03 is the only road of life for the city and it connects Bakhmut

    There is no other supply line behind kramatorsk

    Main defense line is Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka. By road they are supplied from Dobropolye and by train from Barvenkovo. Now, train line is almost cut, but road isn't. Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut are before that line to the east. Both Bakhmut and Seversk are hard to defend, due to geography. Seversk is practically surrounded from 3 sides and they will, sooner or later abandon it. There are unconfirmed reports that they already started. Bakhmut is in the river valley and hard to defend. I believe that Ukrainians will just use that line to buy some time and further fortify Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.
    I can't claim that the order from Zaluzhny came, but there was withdrawal. Much of the force managed to pull out, along with tanks and spgs.

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    Post  d_taddei2 Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:08 am

    After the Donbass liberation. In my opinion I think Kharkiv city will be cut off and contained. It a very large city urban fighting isn't easy and high casualties. Once contained let the civilian population add pressure to the army and Nazis. Kiev can't send reinforcements. When this has been done Zaporizhia taken, this puts them in good position to attack Dnipro from the south, they can effectively bypass Pavlograd by coming north from Zaporizhia and south from Kharkov creating a giant cauldron. With little in their way, you effectively let Ukraine harbour troops in Pavlograd only for it to be cut off. Once taken. Nikolayev and Odessa will be easy targets. The question after that where to next? Kirovohrad would be easy low population compared to it's size,Cherkasy? Further east Poltava? Sumy? Chernihiv all three are large areas with towns villages, no real big cities. All easy to take. Will they go as far as Kiev take the capital?  Vinnytsia taking large amount of various industries and thermal power plant? And Zhytomyr? I think if they got this far they would be doing great, but I think anything further and it would be a real headache and I believe even the latter three mentioned it would be a hard win due to civilian population. But further west from there your talking brain washed neo Nazi russophobia in full swing with very little decent industry. Vinnytsia Could be useful with the amount of various industries and thermal power plant. Zhytomyr would be a good buffer between the west and Kiev and it's granite industry is fairly well established. Kiev would of course be symbolic the capital being taken of any country at war is a powerful message. And of course transnistria and gaugazia will be absorbed into this new federation a bonus to special operation. The other oblasts mentioned all have good industries which a newly formed federation would need. While western Ukraine would collapse and be a constant drain and reminder to USA UK and Europe what happens when you meddle with Russia and use a puppet state as bait.
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    Post  thegopnik Tue Jul 05, 2022 2:53 am

    https://www.russiadefence.net/t4810p175-russian-mrls-grad-uragan-smerch-tornado-g-s one of the most useful tools specifically for this war is not being used since they care so much about not wanting to shell civilians but hit specific targets....MRLS launched drones.
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    Post  d_taddei2 Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:12 am

    Just been calculating. This is pretty crazy.

    To put into context how important various oblasts are to Ukraine GDP.
    (Figures taken in 2019)

    Ukrainian GDP €125.9 billion.

    1 Kiev city €30.0 billion
    2 Dnipropetrovsk Oblast €12.4 billion
    3 Kharkiv Oblast €7.8 billion
    4 Kyiv Oblast €6.9 billion
    5 Lviv Oblast billion €6.8 billion
    6 Donetsk Oblast €6.5 billion
    7 Odessa Oblast €6.2 billion
    8 Poltava Oblast billion €5.9 billion
    9 Zaporizhzhia Oblast €4.9 billion
    10 Vinnytsia Oblast €4.1 billion
    11 Cherkasy Oblast €3.3 billion
    12 Mykolaiv Oblast €2.9 billion
    13 Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast €2.7 billion
    14 Zhytomyr Oblast €2.7 billion
    15 Khmelnytskyi Oblast €2.6 billion
    16 Chernihiv Oblast €2.5 billion
    17 Sumy Oblast €2.4 billion
    18 Volyn Oblast €2.4 billion
    19 Kirovohrad Oblast €2.3 billion
    20 Rivne Oblast €2.1 billion
    21 Kherson Oblast €2.0 billion
    22 Zakarpattia Oblast €1.9 billion
    23 Ternopil Oblast €1.8 billion
    24 Chernivtsi Oblast €1.3 billion
    25 Luhansk Oblast €1.3 billion

    I would like to point out that Lugansk and Dontesk oblasts figures ONLY include Ukrainian held areas, we know prior to 2014 Lugansk and Dontesk are some of the most productive and money making industries in Ukraine. So therefore the figures for these areas will be higher than published.

    So if we take lugansk, Donetsk, Odessa, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovak, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv into account you will see these areas account for €44 billion or 35% of Ukrainian GDP. Now if we were to go further and include kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Kiev city and kiev oblast, we would be looking at a combined total of €104.1 billion or 83% of Ukrainian GDP and reminder this isn't including Pro Russian held areas of lugansk or Donetsk. So you can see the remainder of Ukraine would be left with around €20 billion GDP for an area of around 131,266km² roughly the size of Greece. Or twice the size of Lithuania. To put it into comparison. Lithuania GDP is around €54 billion for a country half the size of western Ukraine and western Ukraine with it's €20 billion would suffer massively. And it would cost the EU, USA, and UK a vast amount of billions to keep it a float for decades to come, or they may e just do what they normally do and the leave the country to a poverty stricken mess needing UN aid, multiple charities help.

    Now we will have to wait and see exactly how much pain Russia wants to cause the orcs and it's western masters.


    Last edited by d_taddei2 on Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Vann7 Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:58 am

    One of the best places on youtube discussing Ukraine battles.


    LYSYCHANSK HAS FALLEN


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    Post  Backman Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:11 am

    d_taddei2 wrote:Just been calculating. This is pretty crazy.

    To put into context how important various oblasts are to Ukraine GDP.
    (Figures taken in 2019)

    Ukrainian GDP €125.9 billion.

    1 Kiev city €30.0 billion
    2 Dnipropetrovsk Oblast €12.4 billion
    3 Kharkiv Oblast €7.8 billion
    4 Kyiv Oblast €6.9 billion
    5 Lviv Oblast billion €6.8 billion
    6 Donetsk Oblast €6.5 billion
    7.

    So the list of numbers is post 2014 GDP ? I am trying to find Ukraine's pre 2014, GDP in PPP terms. Which would include Crimea. Taking 80% of that number would indicate how much GDP Russia has gained from Ukraine since 2014.

    Russia's GDP/PPP will be ahead of Germany by the time its said and done. Germany has to be taught a lesson. This is what following the US into wars gets you.

    Speaking of which.

    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1543844756614258689?s=20&t=wG_UIdI9kdzwf37Kg6VTeg

    Code:
    https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1543844756614258689?s=20&t=wG_UIdI9kdzwf37Kg6VTeg

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    Post  kvs Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:30 am

    Ukraine lost about 30% of its GDP in 2014 going into 2015. Some people refused to believe these numbers but the whole reason
    that the Donbass was attached to Soviet Ukraine was because it was urbanized and industrialized. Western and central Ukraine
    are agrarian backwaters even today.

    Another thing is that the above GDP breakdown numbers show how misleading the GDP is. The money flow is not local but global.
    Remove key inputs and that 30 billion for Kiev disappears.

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    Post  PapaDragon Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:37 am

    Backman wrote:...Russia said it started the war to end these shellings. And now Ukraine is getting longer range weapons and is going to use them to terror bomb along the border.

    Just bomb them back and triple down on it, they are already accused of that bullshit so might as well get some use out of it

    What's the problem?


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    Post  PhSt Tue Jul 05, 2022 5:52 am

    PapaDragon wrote:

    What's the problem?


    Problem is Russia is not bombing them enough. I also wish that Russia will open a second front in the Finnish occupied part of the Fennoskandiya peninsula. attack

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    Post  Erk Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:18 am

    d_taddei2 wrote:Just been calculating. This is pretty crazy.

    To put into context how important various oblasts are to Ukraine GDP.
    (Figures taken in 2019)

    Ukrainian GDP €125.9 billion.

    1 Kiev city €30.0 billion
    2 Dnipropetrovsk Oblast €12.4 billion
    3 Kharkiv Oblast €7.8 billion
    4 Kyiv Oblast €6.9 billion
    5 Lviv Oblast billion €6.8 billion
    6 Donetsk Oblast €6.5 billion
    7 Odessa Oblast €6.2 billion
    8 Poltava Oblast billion €5.9 billion
    9 Zaporizhzhia Oblast €4.9 billion
    10 Vinnytsia Oblast €4.1 billion
    11 Cherkasy Oblast €3.3 billion
    12 Mykolaiv Oblast €2.9 billion
    13 Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast €2.7 billion
    14 Zhytomyr Oblast €2.7 billion
    15 Khmelnytskyi Oblast €2.6 billion
    16 Chernihiv Oblast €2.5 billion
    17 Sumy Oblast €2.4 billion
    18 Volyn Oblast €2.4 billion
    19 Kirovohrad Oblast €2.3 billion
    20 Rivne Oblast €2.1 billion
    21 Kherson Oblast €2.0 billion
    22 Zakarpattia Oblast €1.9 billion
    23 Ternopil Oblast €1.8 billion
    24 Chernivtsi Oblast €1.3 billion
    25 Luhansk Oblast €1.3 billion

    ...
    The point I would like to make is GDP is not a measure of Productivity as the name implies, it should be called GDS (Gross Domestic Spending) as it only considers the movement of money, not goods and services. As with most countries, some areas of Ukraine are far more productive than others, where as they might have much lower spending.

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    Post  par far Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:44 am

    "Bandera Club in Israel

    What no analytical history does to a MF."


    We all know the people/group, that Bandera was associated to and what they did to the Jews and now they have this in Israel(a Jewish country), this is pretty disgusting.


    https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/13493

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    Post  ALAMO Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:36 am

    d_taddei2 wrote:
    Now we will have to wait and see exactly how much pain Russia wants to cause the orcs and it's western masters.

    As much as they can.
    This is what I was pointing out for a while.
    When the Russkies finish, what would be left would be a minor agrarian country, habituated by 15 million people.
    No industry, landlocked, deprived of decent and skilled labor.
    All business connections lost, supply chain shattered to pieces, industrial base gone.
    It will be a shithole worse than Moldova, with no sight of getting better.
    Ukraine is gone already, the only thing that runs now is a program to fight a civil war until the last Ukr standing.

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