Russian special military operation in Ukraine #16

Ukrainians claim that they have already reached the border with Russia in the Kharkiv region. Maybe a fake. Currently, this operational direction is not important for Russia. It is a pity to keep soldiers there. The Ukrainians are selling it as always as a great success

https://vk.com/video-123538639_456282908

Sprut-B wrote:Exclusive footage from the Azovstal catacomb

https://t.me/intelslava/28866

Comparing Azov Nazis to pigs is an insult to pigs.

First update from the DNR

Levi
@Levi_godman
·
11m
Ukronazis demanded evacuation from Azovstal to a "third country".

Well, they were "evacuated" to a third country - Donetsk People's Republic


Leonid Ragozin
@leonidragozin
·
Commander of DNR’s Vostok unit claims an agreement has been reached with a group of Azovstal defenders about their surrender. He assumes they are going to release their wounded. Another source says this is expected to happen at 1730 local time.

Georgij Konstantinovič žukov
@ILRUSSO1
·
1h

Apparently, the evacuation of the wounded is being prepared. A group of parliamentarians from the enemy’s side, who left in the morning with white flags, and a counter group from our side determined the route for the removal of the wounded the enemy began clearing the rubble, we are observing and do not interfere.

Injured troops to be evacuated from Azovstal– Moscow

Evacuation from the Mariupol stronghold agreed, Russian military said.

Russian and allied troops blocking the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol will allow injured Ukrainian soldiers to leave the stronghold and go to hospital in Novoazovsk, the Russian defense ministry said on Monday. The evacuation is planned for later on Monday after an agreement was reached, the military said.

According to the Russian ministry, it has suspended hostilities at Azovstal to allow the humanitarian evacuation later in the day.

Novoazovsk is a small city about 40km east of Mariupol, which is controlled by the militia force of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The evacuated troops will apparently remain in the custody of the breakaway republic, which Russia recognized as an independent state before launching its attack against Ukraine in late February.

https://www.rt.com/russia/555560-injured-troops-evacuation-azovstal/

flamming_python wrote:Finland is not a threat to Russia as it fails to meet the criteria. It has no claims over Russian territory, does not oppress ethnic Russians on their own lands, does not host terrorist organizations plotting attacks in Russia, does not make belligerent statements or state its intention to attack civilian or military infrastructure in Russia, does not hint at any plans for a WMD program aimed at Russia, and does not consider the idea of hosting anyone else's nuclear missiles targeted against Russia on its own territory

Once member of NATO it has no more sovereignty of such things. Gladio bases are anti-russian and are operating with terrorist intentions across Europe. It is also conveniently geolocated in the flight path of Russia's strategic thermonuclear missiles. This fact alone should be motivation enough to the US to place more AEGIS shields across the country. Finnland maybe de-facto member of NATO but it has today in "theory" the possibility to say No to whatever the US requests. As a NATO member they lose their card for human rights and get handed a chainball which they voluntarily strap to their feet.

flamming_python wrote:
The Ukraine meanwhile fell down on all of these counts. It claimed the Crimea. It oppressed Russians in the Donbass and in wider Ukraine. It hosted and co-ordinated with all sorts of nationalist and Crimean Tatar Islamist extremists who were detained on occasion in the Crimea planning to carry out various attacks, or in some case actually carrying them out. It threatened to blow up the Crimean Bridge and other infrastructure in the Crimea. Zelensky voiced his preference for the Ukraine to restart its nuclear weapons program. And there was an accusation by Russia that the Ukraine was a potential hosting site for US missiles - presumably not an unfounded allegation.

Yes, all true but also the deciding factors are that it is not a souvereign country anymore, but infiltrated by foreign special agencies which are forming the policy further more an artificial country and ethnicity which never existed and was born for the sole purpose to divide and conquer easier.

flamming_python wrote:
We can qualify Finland as a comprador regime for the US and one that's about to join an expansionist military alliance - but it is ultimately their right to do so, including to ensure their own security as well if they feel it's at risk. It's their right to be a US client state.
If Finland joins NATO but does not before or after, act to become a threat to Russia - then I don't see a big problem

Unfortunately that decision is only up to Russia if they allow that to happen or not. Just like Cuba has no right to join or host Russia's military assets the same way Russia should treat any expansionistic plans of NATO or bordering countries.

Some footage from Azovstal today.

Looks like the first batch or 51 Nazis are on their way out
Reporters on scene at the awaiting transportation which will take them to Novoazovsk
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/48819

Great article from Gleb Bazov

The distortion of what the Western media says about the war and what is really happening

For Spanish speakers

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/05/16/mundos-para-lelos-y-la-horrible-realidad/

English speakers can read the original article on Telegram in this link

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/542

Arrow wrote:Ukrainians claim that they have already reached the border with Russia in the Kharkiv region. Maybe a fake. Currently, this operational direction is not important for Russia. It is a pity to keep soldiers there. The Ukrainians are selling it as always as a great success

https://vk.com/video-123538639_456282908

For Ukraine it is huge boost of confidence - they successfully defended second largest city, it will do miracles for their national consolidation.
Also coming to the border will force Russia to keep 20 battalions on their side in order to secure Belgorod and thus will have impact on number of Russian forces deployed in Ukraine too. Plus it allows Ukraine to disrupt supply lines from Belgorod to Donbass...

So nothing revolutionary but also not small things either.

At the same time M777 arrived on front in East and marks first time that Ukraine has weapon that is far more modern, precise and with longer range than anything they had ever before...

Russia is losing momentum of the second phase of the war btw.

New York is next!

mr_hd wrote:

Arrow wrote:Ukrainians claim that they have already reached the border with Russia in the Kharkiv region. Maybe a fake. Currently, this operational direction is not important for Russia. It is a pity to keep soldiers there. The Ukrainians are selling it as always as a great success

https://vk.com/video-123538639_456282908

For Ukraine it is huge boost of confidence - they successfully defended second largest city, it will do miracles for their national consolidation.
Also coming to the border will force Russia to keep 20 battalions on their side in order to secure Belgorod and thus will have impact on number of Russian forces deployed in Ukraine too. Plus it allows Ukraine to disrupt supply lines from Belgorod to Donbass...

So nothing revolutionary but also not small things either.

At the same time M777 arrived on front in East and marks first time that Ukraine has weapon that is far more modern, precise and with longer range than anything they had ever before...

Russia is losing momentum of the second phase of the war btw.

US howitzers they received came without digital fire correction control unit, so they won't be able to fire Excalibur rounds. They are just regular howitzers with range of up to 30km. They already have stuff like that in their arsenal.

After criticizing Russia for using antiquated weapons and tactics in Ukraine, U.S Army now says that Ukraine war "validates pursuing very long range artillery."

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-war-validates-pursuing-very-long-range-artillery-army-says

Ukrainian reaching the borders is a real defeat for Russia. They are loosing their time retaking a stupid factory in mariupol with 3 nazi inside instead of gaining the war on the front.

They hope for a propaganda win in Azovstal but it won't be one since no one care about it.

There is a vig issue in decsion making center in russian army. This war could have been very quick if they did it like real professionals.

The choice of not decapitating the ukrainian military and political staff, not destroying ukrainian media and internet and not using their air force to bomb airfields was a totally dumb choice that no one will be able to explain at the end. Instead they choosed to dig in in a position war like in WW1 that kills lots of people and destroys too much of their hardware with a front that move only if you loose thousands of troops.

Su-24 should be day and night in the air at 10km up now that ukrainians are left with only manpads.

There is no sign of soviet or russian modern doctrines being implemented during this war.

That's a war.

They are dumb to call it a special operation and not doing this war the proper way. That's some dumb propaganda move totally useless to try to not be seen as an agressor when in fact it's just a war.

Keeping doing what they are doing will just make tens of thousands deads more and destroy all the cities where they fight.

Russian losses are also huge. Manpower and hardware. Thry can't afford to continue this way.

Ispan wrote:Great article from Gleb Bazov

The distortion of what the Western media says about the war and what is really happening

For Spanish speakers

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/05/16/mundos-para-lelos-y-la-horrible-realidad/

English speakers can read the original article on Telegram in this link

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/542

Again, maps in the original but not here.

Parallel Worlds and the Horrible Reality
16 May, 2022 Zhukov

Gleb Bazov has published on his Telegram channel this interesting article that I reproduce, the title are my usual sarcastic phrases, to express the disconnect between the alternative reality published by Western propaganda and the facts.

English version

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/542

(13 May)

In Spanish

Reading the news: Try this little experiment: every time a fantastic claim is made in the sphere of the Ukrainian media or in the West about Russia, turn it around - put Ukraine in Russia's place, and vice versa. Everything will start to make sense.

1-Russia is not ready for a protracted war, a protracted war favors Ukraine.

Russia's economy is intact. Approximately 70-90% of the Ukrainian economy has collapsed, with the main industrial center of Mariupol, necessary for the military-industrial complex, in Russian hands. Ukraine is unable to collect taxes and finance its government and army. Russia has mobilized barely a single-digit percentage of its economy for this war; Ukraine has very little economy left to mobilize. Russia is planning to produce its largest harvest to date; Ukraine is exporting all its remaining grain stock and has mined its fields to such an extent that agricultural production on large tracts of arable land is impossible. Russia continues, on a daily basis, to produce the missiles it uses to attack Ukrainian military and infrastructure targets; Ukraine's Tochka-U repair and manufacturing workshops have been destroyed, putting a limit on the number of missiles it can deploy, and the launchers are slowly being decimated. Russia has deployed only part of its army, and, perhaps, not even the strongest part of its force of professional soldiers (possibly in anticipation of having to repel NATO aggression, but this is just speculation); most of Ukraine's combat brigades now have a 40-60% personnel ratio.

Russia is largely self-sufficient, is able to redirect the flow of its goods and resources to the East, and continues to make extraordinary profits from the premium for gas and oil created by Western sanctions; Ukraine survives by the grace of the West, which is not willing to even hand over, wholesale, the frozen reserves of the Russian Central Bank, let alone spend enough to finance Ukraine through this war, and where public attention is declining as economies experience inflation and a recession and the success of Ukrainian propaganda that Russia has already lost plays against those who spread it. Wars are won through economic force, and the West is neither willing nor able to bet its money to back up its words, and even if it were, what to spend on, a decimated Ukrainian army, increasingly composed of uneducated leva recruits?

2-Russia has suffered heavy casualties: Putin has to mobilize additional troops to continue the war.

Russia continues to use essentially the same military grouping that it used at the beginning, reinforced with some additional battle groups to confront Ukraine's toughest positions in Donbass. Ukraine is going through the fourth wave of mobilization, with rampant forced conscription and untutored territorial defense and Volkssturm battalions, which were hoping to spend the war in Galicia, but are now increasingly being sent to the front, deployed in the meat grinder on the Izyum front, where some of the most experienced allied troops break through the Ukrainian lines. Despite the manifestations of Western experts that Russia was about to declare a general mobilization, a partial one was not even announced, and Putin explicitly rejected the idea. Even the covert mobilization of volunteers is underway mainly (if not only) through the organizational channels in Chechnya (where volunteers from all over Russia and the post-Soviet space are gathering). The city of Mariupol was stormed and taken (not including the forces on the perimeter, which maintain the encirclement of the city) with initially fewer troops than the Ukrainian defenders had. Ukraine could not even conceive of trying to unblock its units, because Russia had immobilized Ukrainian forces throughout the north, in Kharkov, Sumy, Chernigov and Kiev.

By the time the forces carrying out the fixation were deployed elsewhere, the Mariupol saga was essentially over. By moving the units of the Northern Front, Russia was able to let them rest, but they did not take too long to be returned to the war, which indicates that there was no appreciable need to replenish casualties (confirming the relatively meager losses even in the confrontation of the Northern Front, the main casualties for Russia were always going to come from the Donbass confrontation). Ukraine cannot even relieve its brigades to rest - Ukrainian units are stuck at the front and have no choice but to fight non-stop (the avalanche of relatives increasingly begging the Ukrainian authorities to allow their men to rest and be relieved outside the hot zones is becoming very pronounced).

The numbers of prisoners of war tell their own story. It's been weeks (literally) since we last saw a video of Russian prisoners of war in Ukrainian hands. Videos of Ukrainians surrendering to Russian forces are, on the other hand, a daily phenomenon. They surrender individually, in groups and en masse. Some have even joined the DNR and LNR forces to fight the Ukrainian army. Others have decided to stay in Donbass forever. Some help in the allied military and civilian hospitals of Donbass. Others eat, rest, smoke, perfectly safe in Russian captivity. I estimate more than 6,000 Ukrainian prisoners of war, and possibly up to 8,000 in Russian hands. This says a lot, considering the Russian Defense Ministry's report that, once surrounded, the Ukrainian contingent from Mariupol numbered about 8,500 soldiers, and Russia attacked it with about the same number. Whatever the number of Russian casualties, the number of Ukrainian prisoners of war is probably greater than the entire group of Russian soldiers who died.

3-Russia has lost so many tanks and materiel that it has to stock up on new tanks from Iraq. Ukraine, on the contrary, has been capturing Russian armored vehicles in such numbers that it now has more than it had before the conflict. Even farmers plow the fields with Russian tanks.

Even the "Ukrainian Goebbels" Arestovich said on April 26: "We do not have heavy weapons. We need them. The West will help us and we will go on the offensive."The fairy tales of Ukrainian farmers towing Russian tanks and Ukrainian forces mass-capturing abandoned Russian armored and vehicles were always just that: fairy tales of the worst kind, the ones with no truth, morality or purpose, except to perpetuate a lie. The Russian army has not been flinched by the losses of any equipment (armored vehicles, specialized vehicles, rocket launchers, airplanes, helicopters, etc.) that may have suffered. On the contrary, their movements and deployments continue to be rapid, the pace of the offensive, considering the vast territory and the huge expanse of the front, remains exemplary. All this indicates that all Western and Ukrainian reports on the topic of Russian losses of any kind have been a big lie

The Ukrainian side, on the contrary, is in the most deplorable state, barely manages to put scrap metal into service here and there, precisely because it has lost a lot of material. Pleads aviation and tanks to the West. He sends his soldiers into battle without armored support. Even Tochka-U terrorist launches are becoming a rarity: only today (May 13) two were shot down by Russian air defenses over the northern outskirts of Kharkov, they clearly aimed at Russian territory, but there used to be days when Ukraine launched almost a dozen in one night

Ukrainian soldiers are left with only the use of anti-tank weapons such as the NLAW (disposable one-shot anti-tank) which is often a failure, Javelin missiles (which Ukrainians treat as equally disposable) and a cornucopia of anti-tank weapons from a variety of countries. These often fail, break, explode in the hands of soldiers. It is reported that the batteries of the Javelin often break down, so the Ukrainians make repairs with power supplies to give the devices electricity. The Russians, by contrast, have none of these problems with their own missiles. At the same time, every day I see (and I have been seeing for many weeks) reports that the Allied forces capture this or that Ukrainian armored or other vehicle as a trophy, take away weapons and anti-tank warehouses and generally benefit militarily from Ukraine's weapons stocks. The reason Ukraine is so desperate for arms deliveries from the West is because it has lost so much — the claim of Russian losses, on the other hand, has been another big lie



4-Ukraine forced Russian troops to leave the areas near Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov, but Ukraine withdrew, in an organized manner, from Severodonetsk, Popasnaya and Izyum.

This is simply lies and propaganda. Let's deal with the Ukrainians first. The Ukrainian forces have not, to date, carried out an organized withdrawal from anywhere, with the exception, possibly, of the withdrawal of a brigade from Lisichansk. This could be considered an organized retreat, but only if one ignores that the city was about to be encircled, and his desperate comrades, on the other side of the Seversky Donets River, in Severodonetsk, were abandoned to their fate by the Ukrainian General Staff. Popasnaya was a monumental defeat, and the 24th Ukrainian Brigade may cease to exist as a result, as it suffered heavy losses even in the retreat. Finally, Izyum, actually, is an example of the endurance and perseverance of the Ukrainian troops, who managed, for almost a month, if my memory serves me correctly, to defend themselves in the peninsula-like southern district of the city, across the Seversky Donets River, from advancing Russian forces. They also did not retreat from there, but died there.

As for the Russians, where is the evidence, photographic or otherwise, which the Ukrainians are so fond of, that they forced the Russians to leave Kiev, Chernigov, Sumy and Kharkov? It wasn't fights or battles. The best that Ukraine could hope for was to bombard Russian positions around it with artillery and rockets from inside these cities. In Kiev, Chernigov and Sumy, was only the second or third day after the Russian armies left in an organized manner, to be deployed in Donbass, the Ukrainian dared to poke your snout in the settlements around urban centers previously blocked. In Kharkov, the pattern of organized Russian movement is repeated—the allied forces retreated at the threat of encirclement, and the Ukrainians advanced without resistance to take the empty villages. The only examples of real fighting—an attempted assault on Kazachya Lopan, for example, cost the Ukrainians two villages and a total failure, and, perhaps, only Rubezhnoye stands as an example of pitched battle, but I have no more information about what happened there. The fight for Liptsy continues, as far as I can tell. In other words, we are dealing with the allied armies that do what they want, and the Ukrainians, what the Russian forces allow them to do. Why the Ukrainians are allowed to take back territory - that's a question of policy, tactics and strategy that is not suitable for this discussion and is better answered elsewhere.

Time and again, we see Russia implementing a strategy: to immobilize the Ukrainians in the north and then withdraw, once that mission has run its course, to redeploy the troops in the second phase of the operation in Donbass. Immobilizing the Ukrainians in Kharkov, while the new battle groups raze the eastern bank of the Oskol River and the Northern group of the Russian forces takes Izyum and spreads the tentacles of its units to Velikaya Kamyshevakha (hereinafter to Lozovaya and, possibly, Pavlograd, over time), Barvenkovo and Slavyansk. Breaking through the defenses around Rubezhnoye and drilling towards Yampol and Lyman. Taking Shandrigolovo and Novoselovka to split the Ukrainian side. Crushing Popasnaya, and then dividing the offensive to the west and north to Artyomovsk and Kamyshevakha. Ukrainians are reacting to this strategy, defensively, and largely dancing to the sound of the Russian violin (despite modest attempts on the island of Zmeiny and around Kharkov, however, they were allowed to embolden themselves, Ukrainian forces can take these germs of the strategy to the next level).

Turn the narrative upside down and the picture becomes clear.

Here's today briefing, it has summaries from different sources and myself to make sense of the events of the past week, seems as one say, we have reached a turning point

Added some maps to make it easier to follow each action

https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/05/16/parte-de-guerra-16-05-2022-informe-especial/

PS A request. The Donetsk Republic published somewhere their losses a week ago but I can't find, they admitted about 1.700 dead. Can anyone find the news item? doesn't matter if it's in Russian.

I can't do searches in Russian text so that's why I ask

Arrow wrote:Ukrainians claim that they have already reached the border with Russia in the Kharkiv region. Maybe a fake. Currently, this operational direction is not important for Russia. It is a pity to keep soldiers there. The Ukrainians are selling it as always as a great success

https://vk.com/video-123538639_456282908

Don't really get it. They were already at the border with Russia at the northern part of the Kharkov region, where there was no Russian presence since the withdrawal from Sumy/Chernigov/Kiev.

Where did they reach the border at here?

Likely just more Ukrainian BS. Taking back villages that were never captured, etc...

Even if Russia did seize an M777 and even if they are of limited value, I would say the fact they made it to the front is a failure. Honestly, if each gun kills 10 Russians before its is destroyed or runs out of ammo or breaks, that is 1000 dead. If a large, bulky item like an M777 can get to the front so quickly all I can say is W T F in regards to Russias interterdiction or lack thereoff. I have been harping on this for a while, and now the failure in this vital area is really going to hurt. If they cannot interdict these guns on predictable rails and roads, then I have reduced confidence in their ability to destory them in the field.

sepheronx wrote:

Isos wrote:That's a war.

They are dumb to call it a special operation and not doing this war the proper way. That's some dumb propaganda move totally useless to try to not be seen as an agressor when in fact it's just a war.

Keeping doing what they are doing will just make tens of thousands deads more and destroy all the cities where they fight.

Russian losses are also huge. Manpower and hardware. Thry can't afford to continue this way.

No it isn't. Their dead isn't huge nor equipment lost. Now you used to be rather rational but now becoming irrational using bombastic statements with no proof.

Yeah, they are at russias border, and have been for quite some time not just in one specific area.

So what?

If they went in Gung ho, there would far far more dead, even for Russia. That is what happened first. Slow and methodical is always better.

Let the Ukrainians go to russias border. There is a large force waiting for them right outside of Kharkov.

They aren't concentrating all their forces for azovstal either.  They are moving in and around Izyum towards Slavyansk.  It's a process of doing it slow but right.

If you feel that it's being done wrong, I suggest you tell that to Shoigu and also go volunteer and fight.

Losses are huge for Russia. Just look at the losses of the paratroopers around Kiev. Plenty of deads and vehicles desteoyed. They were their best troops. Tank losses are also big just like their naval losses.

I'm not saying Ukraine will win. Of course russians will. I'm saying they don't make war as they were teached to do and make it last for too long which increases deads on both side including civilian deads.

Some game changing move were not done. Airports not destroyed, power supply still runing, internet which is a major weapon for ukrainians who coordinate their troop with it still running, command staff in Kiev with Zelensky taking pictures day and night. Iskanders used against lonely vehicles in fields for propaganda.

The only reason I find for this is that Putin wants a long war and keep the sanctions that hit back at europe. But that can be dangerous and hit back at Russia too. Because russian generals could have done this war much shorter.


If you know russian and soviet doctrine you would know that they are designing their military for huge movement onto the enemy and attacks in the rear on the command posts and communications. It's the total opposite of what they are doing in Ukraine. Zelensky and co would have been killed the first day according to their military doctrines.

flamming_python wrote:

Arrow wrote:Ukrainians claim that they have already reached the border with Russia in the Kharkiv region. Maybe a fake. Currently, this operational direction is not important for Russia. It is a pity to keep soldiers there. The Ukrainians are selling it as always as a great success

https://vk.com/video-123538639_456282908

Don't really get it. They were already at the border with Russia at the northern part of the Kharkov region, where there was no Russian presence since the withdrawal from Sumy/Chernigov/Kiev.

Where did they reach the border at here?

Likely just more Ukrainian BS. Taking back villages that were never captured, etc...

Indeed, this entire thing just seems to be a group of UA larping in some nondescript forest somewhere, and they're on video carrying a "border post" with them, while claiming to make huge revolutionary gains, along a section of the border they've controlled since day one anyway.

Like, seriously, it just seems to be the laziest kind of propaganda, and if it's a "huge morale boost" then I guess their standards dropped significantly. Then again I don't blame them, the Snake debacle which on the other hand would have been a decent Tiktok boost at least (though largely militarily pointless) was, well, a debacle. A very costly one. So they're going for low hanging fruit now I guess.

As for foreign guns, there are a lot of assumptions here. How does anyone know none were interdicted, for instance? We don't even know where they are deployed, in what numbers, or what the significance, if any is.

Of course the Ukrainians and their supporters want to make it look like they're successfully reinforcing the entire front with heaps of western wunderwaffe and freshly educated super soldiers, but yeah... The way things are progressing suggests otherwise.

edit: The forest larping could, I suppose be an attempt to make Russia divert forces there. But the latter doesn't buy it anyway, so what gives.