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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #11

    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:11 am

    Use it or lose it

    And best cheap weapon are bombs

    Su24 should enter this fight in last hurrah

    Svp24 gefest with fab 250 and fab 500 is enough

    Su24 is perfect , low altitude fast strike craft

    It should not loiter aimlessly but fly targeted strike missions on Ukrainian personnel and supplies

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    littlerabbit
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    Post  littlerabbit Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:16 am

    par far wrote:There are rumors, that China is sending weapons to Serbia. According to rumors, there are 5-6 military transport aircraft full of weapons. This is just a rumor, my gut feeling is that it is not true but it is something we need to keep an eye on because US and its vassals are planning on opening another front.

    It could be the 1st batch of Chinese FK-3 AD systems, we bought 4 years ago. We will know for sure tomorrow or a day later. dunno
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    Post  Isos Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:16 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Use it or lose it

    And best cheap weapon are bombs

    Su24 should enter this fight in last hurrah

    Svp24 gefest with fab 250 and fab 500 is enough

    Su24 is perfect , low altitude fast strike craft

    It should not loiter aimlessly but fly targeted strike missions on Ukrainian personnel and supplies

    Actually flying high now would be safe since they lost their medium/long range systems and their radars. Above 10km they should be safe. Add some dummy targets to find remaining SAMs and hunt them with drones.

    However they still don't want to use big bombs. Even guided they make huge damages to civilians since nazi hide in their houses. They can't bomb the ones they came to rescue.

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    Post  littlerabbit Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:21 am

    Podlodka77 wrote:Some may think I'm crazy, but I would prefer rather Serbia to order and buy Chinese Chengdu J-10s instead of French Rafale planes. The Rafale is a good plane, but like any other weapon system from the West, it is overestimated and of questionable value.
    At least the Chinese will never blackmail us, while in the future, if Serbia bothers the West again, there could be another ban on the export of spare parts, modernization of airplanes, sale of missiles and bombs, etc. And after all, the J-10 in the latter variants also has AESA radars.

    Either way, I would love the Su-75 the most.  russia  But well, what can we do.
    The Rafale plane, like most fourth-generation planes, will be garbage in the next decade.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #11 - Page 13 Checkm10


    Agree, J-10C would be perfect for us...and much cheaper than Rafale. For a price of one, we could buy almost 3 squadrons with the same characteristics, maybe even better.


    Last edited by littlerabbit on Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:40 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:22 am

    Isos wrote:Missiles have an expiration date. You don't want your tu-160 to launch a missile that can badly launch and destroy your tu-160.

    Ability to produce missiles is what matters, not stocks. Russians have prepared this war for a long time now and since they figured out they will need to attack they have probably increased production.


    Concerning numbers, Ukraine in 1991 was left with around 60 tu-22M, 23-29 tu-95 and 19 Tu-160. They had around 1100 kh-55 of which 487 scrapped and 587 returned to Russia. They also scrapped 483 kh-22 missiles. They also sold some to Iran which suggests they lied on the numbers.

    Now you can imagine about what USSR kept in Russia. Total number of tu-22M in service was 497, 27 serial and 9 prototype of tu-160 and more than 500 tu-95 of all sort.

    I let you do the math. But again 30 years have passed since soviet time. If they didn't refurbished those missiles then they are useless.

    In my opinion they had 10 times more in Russia than in Ukraine. So 10 000 kh-55 and 5000 kh-22.

    Rocket/missile expiration depends on how it moves

    The Tochka and Kh-15 are both solid-propellant rockets, so they can be kept stored for a long time and still be functional ready for immediate use - around 30 years nominally.
    The Kh-15s were removed from service due to reaching their expiration date. They probably won't work too reliably now, come to think of it. A few should be tested, see how they hold up.
    The Tochkas in service in Belarus/Ukraine and in reserve in Russia, seem to be the 1989 versions for which missiles were produced starting from around that time. Which means they're all passing into their expiration period. As we can see though, Ukrainian Tochka rockets seem to work fine still for now. Belarussian ones may be kept around for another few years or so.

    The Kh-22 is a liquid propellant rocket. Liquid-fueled rockets can't be stored for too long in a ready to fire state; the propellant is often corrosive or spoils in some way or the other. However they can always be emptied, and then refueled later with fuel and oxidizer when you do need them; provided you have the facilities to do so.
    So the Kh-22 should in theory be good if they've been stored empty. However in practice, they are mostly getting upgraded to the Kh-32 anyway; keeping the case but with a smaller warhead, new seeker, engine and different propellant mix

    The Kh-55 is a jet-powered missile. All you need is to add fuel to it ahead of employment as you would to a jet-powered aircraft. If the fuel is good, and the engine, electronics haven't corroded out due to bad storage practice - the missile will work


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:05 am; edited 2 times in total

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    Post  Isos Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:28 am

    littlerabbit wrote:
    Podlodka77 wrote:Some may think I'm crazy, but I would prefer rather Serbia to order and buy Chinese Chengdu J-10s instead of French Rafale planes. The Rafale is a good plane, but like any other weapon system from the West, it is overestimated and of questionable value.
    At least the Chinese will never blackmail us, while in the future, if Serbia bothers the West again, there could be another ban on the export of spare parts, modernization of airplanes, sale of missiles and bombs, etc. And after all, the J-10 in the latter variants also has AESA radars.

    Either way, I would love the Su-75 the most.  russia  But well, what can we do.
    The Rafale plane, like most fourth-generation planes, will be garbage in the next decade.

    [][/url]


    Agree, J-10C would be perfect for us...and much cheaper than Rafale. For a price of one, we could by almost 3 squadrons with the same characteristics, maybe even better.

    Off topic but I saw they want 12 newly build Rafale as well as 12 used ones. They also are in talks for another 12 jets with a third country which could be China.

    At the end it is just to be friendly with everyone and would be a total mess for the small serbian air force. Just the procurement will eat all their money reserve. Maintaining so many is a just a wet dream.

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:32 am

    Isos wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:Use it or lose it

    And best cheap weapon are bombs

    Su24 should enter this fight in last hurrah

    Svp24 gefest with fab 250 and fab 500 is enough

    Su24 is perfect , low altitude fast strike craft

    It should not loiter aimlessly but fly targeted strike missions on Ukrainian personnel and supplies

    Actually flying high now would be safe since they lost their medium/long range systems and their radars. Above 10km they should be safe. Add some dummy targets to find remaining SAMs and hunt them with drones.

    However they still don't want to use big bombs. Even guided they make huge damages to civilians since nazi hide in their houses. They can't bomb the ones they came to rescue.

    I'd throw caution on that

    Ukrainian forces likely still have some Buks; they can hit high, up to 20km potentially. Although their range envelope won't be big at such a high altitude

    But I think it's possible to experiment with such high-altitude bombing with GLONASS guided bombs for sure. They'd still be cheaper than missiles.

    Would be missions for Su-34s with Su-35 escorts at the top of their service ceilings - 17-18km or so.


    Last edited by flamming_python on Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:43 am; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:41 am

    Yeah just start dropping the bombs

    The morale of the enemy is too high almost 50 days in

    It's impossible to win a war when the enemy has manpower and morale

    The nazis feel like they are doing a good job

    People saying they are doing a good job and they feel supported by " international community "

    It's not good to keep this pace and keep them thinking this

    It was a bad idea since day 1 to try a humanitarian war

    Such things don't exist

    At the end of the day we need to destroy these people and the ones who survive will be able to build the new Ukraine

    Every LDNR rebel killed, is a "Russian" at the end of the day

    And seeing the reports out of mariupol, they have killed many

    So bombing must commence, this is moving slowly
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    Post  Podlodka77 Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:45 am

    littlerabbit wrote:
    Podlodka77 wrote:Some may think I'm crazy, but I would prefer rather Serbia to order and buy Chinese Chengdu J-10s instead of French Rafale planes. The Rafale is a good plane, but like any other weapon system from the West, it is overestimated and of questionable value.
    At least the Chinese will never blackmail us, while in the future, if Serbia bothers the West again, there could be another ban on the export of spare parts, modernization of airplanes, sale of missiles and bombs, etc. And after all, the J-10 in the latter variants also has AESA radars.

    Either way, I would love the Su-75 the most.  russia  But well, what can we do.
    The Rafale plane, like most fourth-generation planes, will be garbage in the next decade.

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #11 - Page 13 Checkm10


    Agree, J-10C would be perfect for us...and much cheaper than Rafale. For a price of one, we could by almost 3 squadrons with the same characteristics, maybe even better.

    If I were to ask myself, I wouldn't even buy toilet paper from the EU, let alone airplanes, but what to do when you are conditioned.The EU is like a communist creation, only the orders do not come from the Central Committee but from Brussels.

    At the end of this decade, there will be far more fifth-generation operational aircraft, while in the middle of the next decade, Rafale will also be an obsolete aircraft. It is almost certain that Rafale is the last French plane, while all other future projects will be developed with other EU members.

    Overpriced, too expensive and of questionable value. Although it is true that the best western and best eastern planes did not collide directly in the air. The Chinese J-10 is even somewhat newer (the first flight of the J-10 protoype plane was made 12 years after the flight of the first Rafale), while there is NO doubt about what is French and what is a Chinese military-industrial complex. France is a dwarf in that comparison. The whole EU is a military dwarf compared to China. But again, we live in Europe and we are under tremendous pressure from the strongest weapon in the West - dirty propaganda.
    But it is France and a NATO country, so you pay for a "label" and something that may be worse than what was produced in China. The Chinese are working on several fifth-generation planes, which are already flying a lot, while in the entire EU, all that is still in the design phase.

    I don't believe anything in the West, everything is like an inflated balloon. How to trust the EU when no EU country has a statesman who represents the interests of his country (Orban is an exception), because all orders come from Brussels.

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    Post  Belisarius Tue Apr 12, 2022 2:01 am


    For Military Porn Fans Some (Warranted) Explanations...
    ... on military porn. We all know that Russian Army is totally demoralized and has collapsed (like two weeks ago, right?) and ran completely out of ammo and equipment. Who knows this better than UK's Defense Minister.


    Britain’s Defense Ministry reported Sunday that the Russian forces were trying to compensate for mounting casualties by recalling veterans discharged in the past decade.
    I am sure Sandhurst should be proud of its graduates, because this is the only thing they can be proud of in the last 50 years of being reduced to a joke of a military. But while Russia continues to lose and tries "to compensate" for, obviously, a disastrous defeat from annihilating VSU as a functioning real army reduced to a large cauldron in Donbass, and some forces tied around Kiev, fanboys (and not only) who watched too much Hollywood and US military propaganda videos, especially against Iraqi Army, they ask a question after watching this video (and many similar others) from The Sun tabloid:



    Actually, the question is legitimate when asked properly. What is the question? It's improper form is this: eew, Russian helicopters do not even use precision guided munitions, they use good ol' NURS S-8 and S-13 unguided rockets, while Western forces use PGMs all the time.
    Here is the answer:

    1. First, the fact that NATO forces use PGMs all time is a complete BS and 92% of ammunition used in the First Gulf War was good ol' artillery shelling and free falling bombs' flattening whatever could be found by "coalition" recon.


    The Gulf War in 1991 marked the first extensive use of precision-guided munitions in warfare. Eight percent of the munitions dropped were PGMs, compared to less than one percent in Vietnam.
    In the second campaign in Iraq the number was higher, but that were primarily guided bombs, including for the reason of Iraqi Army of 2003 having very little in terms of any valuable hardware. The birth of the PGMs, actually, goes as far back as Luftwaffe sinking Italian battleship Roma in 1943 by radio-controlled bomb, while Russians already in mid-50s started to deploy first genuine anti-shipping missile (as opposed to merely radio-controlled bomb), as well as fielding one of the first radio-controlled Anti-Tank Guided Missiles such as "Lotos" not to mention legendary 9M14 Malyutka, which still works to this day against many models of tanks.

    These all were and are PGMs (precision guided munitions) and it is not that the US was first in this filed, albeit many try to portray it this way. It is simply not true, in fact the United States didn't have indigenous ATGM until 1970, then did the US obtain a decent anti-tank weapon such as TOW, by which time USSR fielded an astounding variety of ATGMs with guidance ranging from wire to IR, to laser. In 1986 the CIA issued a secret report (declassified in 2000) of Russians developing and using artillery laser guided munitions since 1970, and then they were used in Afghanistan.

    So, you see, the US doesn't have monopoly on PGMs. And that is what many people still fail to recognize. After all, Russians used TV and laser guided bombs extensively in Afghanistan. So, what gives then? Very simple, tactics, economics and common sense.

    2. For anyone who is attentive, even The Sun's video shows that apart from those very deadly even today unguided S-8 (S-13) rocket pods, KA-52s carry (clearly attached) 9K121 Vikhr laser-guided anti-tank weapons, but especially this nasty thing called Ataka, as well as air-to-air Igla missiles. Needless to say then, when you have on-board such a lovely combat informational control system (battle management) as Argument-52 and a superb multi-channel targeting complex, the question is why would you waste a relatively expensive anti-tank missile on something which blows apart easily by S-8, especially when the infantry is present (most of the time) and area coverage matters? Right. Of course, both Mi-28 and Ka-52 are capable of carrying this thing and they do: Hermes.

    All of these PGM and even shoot-and-forget weapons have been used already in combat conditions and brand new Hermes has performed superbly. Evidently it is being carried presently in Ukraine too by both lines of combat helis. So, when you hear all those stories about Russian PGMs "performing poorly" anywhere (like Syria), know then--it is an excruciating butt-hurt of fanboys (primarily from the West) who still believe that Saddam's incompetent army was destroyed by PGMs. It was not.

    Here is good ol' Hind of Mi-24/35 variety wipes out Ukrainian Buk and its support vehicles by those very S-8 NURS.



    Absolutely no necessity to waste PGM on that. Against infantry it is altogether pure stupidity unless you want to "open" some bunker. S-8(S-13) do the job just fine. But, of course, if to believe western "experts" Russia is now down to one or two helicopters and a few tanks and has no personnel left, and VSU is about to mount massive counter-offensive and throw those Roosskies out of 404. I hear Rambo is on his way now, he just needs to arm his bow and arrows and the glorious victory for Ukraine will be at hand. But one has to ask inevitable question, it was more than 40 days of operation now, why so few (in fact very few--not counting CGI graphics from computer games presented as a combat footage by Kiev) shot down Russian helis and combat aircraft. There are some, very few. Where are those killing fields littered with burned Russian tanks. I heard Stinger and Javelin are those wunderwaffe, right? Nah, I am screwing with you.
    https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/04/for-military-porn-fans-some-warranted.html?m=1

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Apr 12, 2022 2:44 am

    Zelensky has ordered an attack on Belgorod

    There probably will be an attack here

    I hope our leadership doesn't make us look stupid here

    They hit our fuel depot

    And I hope these fuckers are not allowed into Russia

    General mobilization will be needed if this happens

    Flaming, you ready for war

    If these fuckers hit belgorod, expect the order

    On April 10, the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky ordered to attack the territory of Russian Federation. The video above shows the commander of the AFU unit setting the task to his subordinates to attack the territory of the Russian Federation, referring to the decree of the President of Ukraine Zelensky. The commander of the unit specifies the task for his fighters to advance to the territory of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, if possible.


    I'm ready to face these fuckers here

    Arkanghelsk
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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Apr 12, 2022 2:48 am

    I report to the personnel the decree of the President of Ukraine. The approval of the decision of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in connection with the ongoing large-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine on the basis of the proposal of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief in accordance with paragraphs 2, 17, part one, clause 116 of the Constitution of Ukraine the law of Ukraine on the legal regime of martial law i order the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine to prepare all personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Ground forces, Air Force of Ukraine, Naval Forces, Airborne assault troops, Special Operations Forces, Territorial Defense Forces to deter aggressor and conduct combat operations on its territory. To prepare units of the AFU for offensive actions in the directions of the city of Belgorod and the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation. Bring the order to the personnel and be ready for its implementation in a short time. Control over the implementation of the order shall be entrusted to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhnyi. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, 10.04.2022. Everyone understand?

    – Yes sir!

    – So, we kept our land, and now we are going (to war) against Russia! Are you ready?

    – Yes sir!


    Bring it pederast fuckers !

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 12, 2022 2:50 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Zelensky has ordered an attack on Belgorod

    There probably will be an attack here

    I hope our leadership doesn't make us look stupid here

    They hit our fuel depot

    And I hope these fuckers are not allowed into Russia

    General mobilization will be needed if this happens

    Flaming, you ready for war

    If these fuckers hit belgorod, expect the order

    On April 10, the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky ordered to attack the territory of Russian Federation. The video above shows the commander of the AFU unit setting the task to his subordinates to attack the territory of the Russian Federation, referring to the decree of the President of Ukraine Zelensky. The commander of the unit specifies the task for his fighters to advance to the territory of the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation, if possible.


    I'm ready to face these fuckers here


    Yeah I'm ready to fulfill my duty

    But if Putin has to call for mobilization over the hodgepodge of forces Zelensky gathered on the border, IMO it's already an admission of defeat, and will hit the civilian economy. Maybe that's the calculation.

    Rosgvardia and the Border Guards should be able to handle this

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    Post  Arkanghelsk Tue Apr 12, 2022 2:58 am

    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #11 - Page 13 Screen69


    I'm preparing, mentally and physically

    I am feeling nervous , but it is what it is

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:00 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Russian special military operation in Ukraine #11 - Page 13 Screen69


    I'm preparing, mentally and physically

    I am feeling nervous , but it is what it is


    That's the point of it

    Just another cheap psychological attack
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    Post  Broski Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:07 am

    Man, these Ukrops are getting more predictable by the day. Make a public declaration to attack Russian territory as a distraction, send a handful of conscripts to the border to get annihilated, engineer the false flag of "Rooskies killing innocent civilians", claim that Putin did it in retaliation for invading Ru territory.

    Did I miss anything?

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    Post  Big_Gazza Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:12 am

    Arkanghelsk wrote:Russian special military operation in Ukraine #11 - Page 13 Screen69


    I'm preparing, mentally and physically

    I am feeling nervous , but it is what it is


    So the Orcs are going to pour forth from the slave-pits of Gundabad (Kharkov) and assault the Free Peoples?

    Good. That means they will need to move in numbers in the open. Russian arty and CAS will have a field day.

    Bring it, little Orc maggots. Time to die... Razz

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    Post  ucmvulcan Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:27 am

    Big_Gazza wrote:
    Arkanghelsk wrote:Russian special military operation in Ukraine #11 - Page 13 Screen69


    I'm preparing, mentally and physically

    I am feeling nervous , but it is what it is


    So the Orcs are going to pour forth from the slave-pits of Gundabad (Kharkov) and assault the Free Peoples?

    Good.  That means they will need to move in numbers in the open.  Russian arty and CAS will have a field day.

    Bring it, little Orc maggots. Time to die...  Razz

    I don't know why I even bother looking at Twitter, but the top three I have seen today:

    1. Putin "purging" 150 intel agents

    2. Some Azov bastard is whining about chemical weapons being used against them in Marioupol

    3. Michael McFail, former ambassador to Russia (why the hell were his credentials ever accepted by the Kremlin?) celebrates Kiev as one of greatest defeats in Russian history.

    The western propaganda machine needs to have a devastating Ukrainian defeat. I hope the Donbass provides that.

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:31 am

    Strelkov is in a glum mood What a Face

    TGC "Evil Tongues" revealed the Plan of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, broken down into stages:

    Stage "A" - in the winter of 2022, with insufficient forces, invade Ukraine in the maximum number of directions, get bogged down in bloody battles in cities and on pre-fortified enemy lines, fail.
    (Not completed in the South direction, where it was possible to achieve success, and in the Donbass, where it was possible to achieve partial success. In other directions, it was completed).

    Stage "B" - unexpectedly withdraw troops from most of the occupied territory. Then try with the same forces to attack the significantly strengthened enemy in a separately taken and previously known to the enemy (as well as heavily fortified) region, waiting for the most inconvenient weather conditions for the onset. (Performed partly for reasons consisting in the incomplete implementation of Stage "A", as a result, the Commander of the Operation, General Surovikin, was replaced by an even more suitable General Dvornikov for the specified tasks).

    Stage "C" - by the fall of 2022, lure the triumphant enemy to your territory - near Moscow (surrender Moscow, as in 1812 and burn it together with the enemy) and Volgograd (destroy it in street battles), after which, finally, declare mobilization and military position.

    Stage "D" - after the enemy finally loses his forces and means in the vastness of the Russian Federation, conclude a truce with him on the terms of the status quo until February 24, 2022.

    Stage "E" - "our song is good, start over" - return to Stage "A".

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    Post  par far Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:34 am

    More Chechen forces headed to Ukraine.

    https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/1859

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    Post  par far Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:35 am

    flamming_python wrote:Strelkov is in a glum mood What a Face

    TGC "Evil Tongues" revealed the Plan of the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, broken down into stages:

    Stage "A" - in the winter of 2022, with insufficient forces, invade Ukraine in the maximum number of directions, get bogged down in bloody battles in cities and on pre-fortified enemy lines, fail.
    (Not completed in the South direction, where it was possible to achieve success, and in the Donbass, where it was possible to achieve partial success. In other directions, it was completed).

    Stage "B" - unexpectedly withdraw troops from most of the occupied territory. Then try with the same forces to attack the significantly strengthened enemy in a separately taken and previously known to the enemy (as well as heavily fortified) region, waiting for the most inconvenient weather conditions for the onset. (Performed partly for reasons consisting in the incomplete implementation of Stage "A", as a result, the Commander of the Operation, General Surovikin, was replaced by an even more suitable General Dvornikov for the specified tasks).

    Stage "C" - by the fall of 2022, lure the triumphant enemy to your territory - near Moscow (surrender Moscow, as in 1812 and burn it together with the enemy) and Volgograd (destroy it in street battles), after which, finally, declare mobilization and military position.

    Stage "D" - after the enemy finally loses his forces and means in the vastness of the Russian Federation, conclude a truce with him on the terms of the status quo until February 24, 2022.

    Stage "E" - "our song is good, start over" - return to Stage "A".



    Strelkov is a butthurt asshole who wanted a role similar to Kadyrov and was told off.

    Strelkov has no access to what is being planned.

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:40 am

    More from Strelkov

    My friend returned from a trip to Kherson on a humanitarian mission. On his return, he called me and said: "You know, your lyrics are even too optimistic." Based on the results of communication with residents, he wrote his observations:

    "one. People adapt to everything. The city is alive: people walk, cars drive, there is food in stores, private traders sell gasoline, sowing is underway. Utilities work, although most of the local officials were fired before the arrival of the Russian troops. There are no battles in Kherson itself, but arrivals in the surrounding area are regularly heard.

    2. The city itself is very dead. Worse than any of the Russian regional centers that I have been to. Little new construction, dead asphalt and houses. No new amenities. At the same time, everything is in Ukrainian flags everywhere (there is exactly one Russian flag for the whole city) and in advertising of how the Americans will make bike paths. The presence of foreign NGOs is strongly noticeable.

    3. There is no civil administration as such. Russian departments act inconsistently, no one has clear instructions on what to do. The FSB doesn't know about the army, the army doesn't know about the FSB. Not even the military agreed. Mess.

    4. The army itself is a terrible mess. The commanders are talking through Ukrainian SIM cards, no one understands anything, decisions are spontaneous. Logistics is a fat three with a minus. Everything rests on the junior officers in the field. Where were the budgets for 8 years?

    5. On the spot, after talking with the locals, you clearly understand that the ongoing war is civil. The choice of side is purely political. It doesn't even depend on the language.

    6. The Russian Federation is losing the war for the minds. Because it's not clear whether Russia will stay or leave. The local pro-Russians sit quietly. They left Ukrainian TV, they just cut off the news channels. Not everyone has Russian ones.

    7. As a result, the mood in society is dominated by pro-Ukrainian ones. Judging by the conversations, 30% are for Russia, 50% are for Ukraine, 20% do not care. In the villages, the attitude towards Russians is worse than in the city.

    The pro-Russian ones are very quiet. There is no certainty about the future, but there is fear and a sense of uncertainty. Russia does not give guarantees to anyone. Well, they are still a minority. Many activists were squeezed out after 2014.

    If the Russian Federation eventually leaves, everyone who has shown disloyalty, even if they were delivering humanitarian aid, will be killed. At the very least, they need to be evacuated. Everyone. At the very least, don't leave.

    8. Despite the pro-Ukrainian sentiments, the locals mostly go to Russia. But not everyone leaves - most just go for gasoline, food, medicine, and then return. Queues at the border for 24-48 hours towards Simferopol.

    9. The pro-Ukrainian part of the population is active and noisy. And not only because he is less afraid of the consequences. She is more motivated.

    Ukraine gives these people a clear image of the future. "We'll join the European Union, they'll give us money, we'll have a high standard of living, we'll be respected and loved by the whole West, the world is friendly and open to us." And it doesn’t even matter how feasible it is, the image itself is important. There is something to fight for. Both military and civilian.

    What future does the Russian Federation offer? "Even if we stay, but that's not certain, then... well... mmm... we'll celebrate May 9th like we used to." It seems that in 2022 this is not enough. The Ukrainian image of the future is at least understandable.

    10. No matter how the military part ends, we lose the cultural and political one. They say that the high offices laughed at "soft power". This war will show how important it was. And a lot depends on whether the Russian Federation will be able to create an attractive image of the future, to explain WHY IT ALL HAPPENED. And not only to create a "picture", but also to carry out real internal changes. Without them, no picture will work.

    11. The same civil war is going on on the territory of the Russian Federation. Only cold. The subject of this war is whether we will retain real sovereignty or become dependent on the West, we will finally rot.
    If there is no image of the future and changes, this war for the minds can be lost in the Russian Federation. Not right now. While the fighting is going on, people are united. Fermentation will start later, when everything is over. This struggle cannot be won by censorship and repression alone.

    The three main scourges of this war are no sensible bosses, no logistics, and no clear answer to the question "why?"

    And yes.

    Yes he is majorly butthurt and won't stop complaining.

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    Post  kvs Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:48 am

    The progress of the clearing of Mariupol by itself should put to rest all the chicken little drivel about Russia failing.
    Where was the mighty spirit of the Azov Nazis? I recall one of their ilk boasting that they were the only ones who
    could fight. The couldn't hold out even hiding behind civilians. The only reason that there is still fighting is because
    the Azov steel plant is a priority object for preservation.

    McFail can keep masturbating about Kiev being a defeat. A defeat does not involve withdrawal at one's leisure.
    There were no Ukr forces in hot pursuit of the "retreating" Russians. McFail is missing a critical mass of brain
    neurons. He posts gibberish such as the ruble forex rate being artificially maintained by the CBR. Naturally
    he does not explain how.

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    Post  Regular Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:58 am

    flamming_python wrote:More from Strelkov

    And yes.

    Yes he is majorly butthurt and won't stop complaining.

    Is he making this up? Some of the points are too pessimistic. But about the current situation, he is not known to lie and put his ass against even more dire situations during 2014. It's impossible not to be butthurt at this stage.

    Point 6... We discussed this weeks ago. And some other points. I think I am forming a similar opinion on some things about Ukrainians and their statehood.

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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 12, 2022 4:09 am

    Strelkov doesn't lie. Although I don't believe him when he said going to h Donbass was his own initiative. Did the border guards let him and his band through to the territory of another state also on their own initiative.

    But Strelkov is cynical and pessimistic down to a fault. He states facts, but uses them to construct and argue the most depressing conclusions.
    His political analysis of anything is bunk. I remember during the protests in Bashkiria, he was trying to put an accent on them as if a separatist conflict would start any day now. When there was a big protest in Ingushetia as a result of territorial swaps with Chechnya, he was also talking about blood being spilt any day now and the necessity of urgent measures

    Well neither situation went that way

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