Isos wrote:My opinion : Russia asked guarantees it knows very well US would never accept and they said they won't negociate. So they are very likely going to take ovee Ukraine or bomb the shit out of them to make it of no use for NATO.
As I said, Ukraine presents no asset for them other than human resources.
Those are already heavily depleted.
I know that some of you may not believe just hearing that, because it is something unbelievable to be honest, but they REALLY lost 1/3rd of the population in the just 7 years.
Everybody who has two hands and a head, and wants to work & live a normal life, is gone.
Even the eastern part of Ukr, the most pro-Russian, is still split in half. That was the situation when they pretended the 2014 referendums&votings, and that only deepened.
Even when Putin is addressing the closing of NATO to Moscow ... well, he has clue, but the clue is irrelevant.
It is all flexing the muscles, and a try to catch as much as they can, as long they have an obvious military edge.
Owning the Kaliningrad, they have the possibility to deploy striking means 1.5 min from Warsaw, 3 minutes from Berlin, and 5 minutes from London and Paris.
Iskanders are already there, who would forbid them to build "USKS Ashore" and fill it up with Cirkons?
The only real difference to them is the fact, that it won't change the potential of striking targets in the CONUS.
But they can keep in a safe distance a routine patrol of 885M soon enough not to bother.