flamming_python wrote:This article certainly connects some of the dots, but its main conclusion I object to
Hey, feel free to correct Ishchenko, he is just the deepest and most knowledgeable analyst out there
Russia is not raising the stakes for the US.
Of course they are raising the stakes. US is speculating about laying a trap for Russia and luring them (rather forcing them) to fall on it, Russia is answering by suggesting the possibility that they do fall in the trap, tear it apart and then have the hunter for lunch. That is why they are moving troops to Belarus, using the VMF and letting UKUS know in how many creative ways their pain points can be hit. The risk here is that this is exactly how world wars start, they are not a historical coincidence but the way military unbalances are sorted out on a global scale.
If it conducts a full-scale invasion, one way or the other that would be a win for the US-UK and pals, even if they suffer some collateral damage tactically. Russia on the other hand will have on its hands the illegal occupation of a massive territory and ensuing insurgency.
Let us don't fool ourselves, Russia cannot decide whether there will be a war, but they can indeed decide where to take it. Probably that is the reason why it is said that they don't start the wars, but they normally finish them. US will succeed if they manage to swamp Russia in a nasty conflict with their neighbours and force the EU on their side. But Russia can counterattack in a myriad of ways and ruin their cost-benefit calculations. Having to abandon Eastern Europe with the leg between their legs in front of the Russian military might will have a massive reputational cost for the US and attract many countries into the arms of Russia and China. US may get kicked out of the ME and SE Asia at the same time or as a consequence. Europe may see revolts that will not be handled with the customary propaganda, new internal elites can raise there too, as their economy is destroyed. US may finally get their naval dominance challenged with means they cannot counter and lose any chance to take advantage of the chaos created in Europa to loot the Global South (hence the AUKUS stunt). There are many possible outcomes once shit hits the fan.
The only Russian goal that makes sense is knocking sense into the Ukraine and Europeans, to disavow any such US plan and not go through with any provocations. Then on the contrary, the US will be left blue-faced over all its tall claims of imminent Russian aggression, and France/Germany will be able to distance the EU from Washington
Certainly that must be the first and main goal, but Russia's odds are much better once the ukies and the EU really feel their necks in the chop block. So Russian military threat must be overwhelming and must be REAL. Why would Russia be interested in being screwed and leaving untouched Europe for the US to loot it? Or to avoid bringing the heat to CONUS or any of their multiple interests in the world? What do they win with it? That Collective Security Russia continuously talks about means in plain terms that if you screw me, I will screw you. Without compassion.
There are early indications that Russia appears to be succeeding. Macron worked out some proposals with Putin. Zelensky appeared receptive. The 9-hour talks although they ended without agreement, did end up with the Ukrainians stating that the Minsk process must be adhered to (even if in somewhat their 'own' interpretation). There are more talks scheduled in 2 weeks from now. The contact line is quiet.
The US meanwhile has just called for all US citizens to leave the country, spreading panic about invasion again to put pressure on Kiev.
They are smart enough to sense the danger, but I am not sure they have the spine to draw a line and stand for it. Macron is a WEF boy, though very ambitious, will he raise up to the task? Never say never and I think people are slowly starting to wake up, bu if the best bets are him, Draghi and Scholz, (though US stupidity plays a huge role too), allow me not to be too optimistic. It may work, but it certainly may not.