The Situation in the Ukraine. #32

flamming_python wrote:

sundoesntrise wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

Well you can check out the press conference yourself and come to your own conclusions

Starts at 1:14:40



The dynamics of Europe are such that Russia and the UK, as periphery states, always come together when continental Europe becomes too 'united' so to speak.

I see it as plausible that the UK (US) agreed to manage Russian security concerns and increase their own ties, at the expense of France and Germany grabbing the initiative.
If France and Germany had the power to force Kiev to comply with Minsk, it would have been a different story.
But as Kozak's press conference after the 9-hour Normandy Format talks on Thursday night suggests, France and Germany did not put pressure on Kiev and allowed it to interpret Minsk in its own way.
1:33:20 Wallace answers a question about how he understands the Minsk document, where he answers that he interprets it as what is actually written there. Then he hints that the process can take years. Which on the one hand, is the US and UK playing for time and drawing out Russia's demands for a response on NATO expansion; but effectively it also means that the Ukraine is stuck in implementing Minsk, which was Russia's preferred solution in the first place and takes away the threat of it ever joining NATO.

As you can see, it's not about trust. It's about signed guarantees.

The only dynamic that matters is the rabiate dedication much of the 'Western partners' have to the destruction of Russia. A dynamic that has withstood the test of time and should be the main prisms through which this whole charade is viewed

Once that sinks in cheap words from interchangeable clowns in a suit suddenly become a lot less reassuring. Especially when these people are actually not saying anything new.

If Putin lets this slide and pulls his turd back in there'll be advanced NATO missile systems on Ukrainian territory within 12 months.

You can take that to the bank.

They're not taking this position because they want to, but because all the alternatives are worse

If they can't have Russia onside against China in exchange for the Ukraine back, then at least they want to discourage it from getting any closer to it than it already has, and to keep the Europeans from breaking out.

China is their main worry, not Russia.

Overall, not the most ideal deal for either the US/UK or Russia. But it strengthens the positions of both sides in Europe, and so it works.

This is quite frankly why I prefer not to get into arguments online. Before you know it you get sucked into time consuming back and forths with faceless anons. Mea culpa, i shouldn't have bitten in the first place.

I generally consider your posts well-informed and thought provoking. Unfortunately in this case your arguments have holes so big that you can drive entire Freedom Trucks through them. Reminds me of last summer when you predicted the end of Israel when Hamad launched a couple of firecrackers on sticks over the border

On this topic I will say that your assessment that 'China is their main foe' is flat out wrong. Very few people in the current administration think like that. In fact the entire US political class barring a few MAGA types is in bed with the Chinese business/political elite through shady dealings and other grift. BlackRock has recently amped up their Chinese investment portfolio by a couple of trillions. George Soros doesn't like Xi but Larry Fink certainly does.

As for the Europeans, they can start thinking about 'breaking out' when each and every US soldier has packed its bags and quietly left. I will only mention the economic dominance the US has through the petrodollar/world's reserve currency here due to time. Newsflash: US will only let go of Europe after a shooting war or a sudden domestic turn to isolationism. Both are extremely unlikely. I never understood the discussion on Germany/France blowing up NATO anyway. The last one that tried sometjing remotely similar was Chirac - you can look up how he ended. That stuff just isn't going to happen.

Even if your theories are taken at face value - the US giving up on Ukraine would not lead to Russia breaking up with China. That doesn't make any sense from whatever angle you look at it.

They've given up on turning Russia against China, at least for the moment baring an opportunity down the line to change the regime in Moscow. They've also given up on trying to pressure Russia through gearing up the Ukraine to break Minsk.. Moscow has made it clear it would end catastrophically for everyone, and it has China's economic backing.

But they don't want Russia and China to get any closer. They don't want Macron's "new security order in Europe" either. And as the only ones able to tell Kiev what to do, it does make sense for them to come to a deal with Moscow. Hoping, in time, that they can at least turn Russia to neutrality in the contest between the West and China.

We'll see if I'm correct soon enough.

Hey some of those maga types at least see the utter corruption and weakness we have in our inextricable ties to the chinese. Us maga types have pretty simple, populist desires but sadly we know that in order to meet those desires the world geopolitical/economic patchwork would fall apart in a conflagration of famine and war. Essentially we know we are screwed. But still we want out of the neoliberal world order and we want to be a nation again without total control of our government to private institutions and global combines. People might look at us as kooks but we reject "free trade" brutal hands off corporatism and tyrannical state controlled communism with their managed economy and control of production. Frankly though I am not a smart man, all I have learned as I've grown up is that almost every sociopolitical system from the industrial era is either become hopelessly corrupted or utter horseshit and must be disposed of.

Explosions have been heard in donetsk, denis pushilin assures that the situation is normal

At the same time a Virginia class submarine was detected near Kuril,  the kicker is that it was submerged and contacted in Russian and English to leave Russian territorial waters

They did not respond so Marshal Shaposhnikov painted them with sonar and the US sub left very quickly, maybe even warning of immediate launch of Kalibr PL the anti submarine version

What I wanna know is how Russia detected the virginia? This is incredible, perhaps the Garmony system is already online??

If Virginia's are detected , the US has just lost massive face , those submarines are easy to detect and destroy

https://sputniknews.com/20220212/us-submarine-was-discovered-in-russian-waters-near-kuril-islands-on-saturday-1092969719.html

https://www.rt.com/russia/549168-explosion-eastern-ukraine-pushilin/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/russia-says-u-s-submarine-violated-its-waters-in-far-east-ifx/wcm/cbaec222-2653-49af-82f1-73e0808b8c48/amp/

Appropriate methods... active sonar , that submarine captain shit himself

Putting military pressure might do more long term damage to Ukraine than short military incursion. And US and other Western countries are not doing them disservice in that regard. Put yourself in the shoes of the potential investor. After you see a panic and evacuation of foreigners and diplomats in last week, would you dare to invest in the country?
This, actually, might pressure Zelensky to do some kind of a deal. He already showed that he is aware of the repercussions of constant warmongering done by US/UK. Also, this might push more younger and affluent Ukrainians to decide and leave the country. Nobody wants to live in constant fear of war.

Further to my post yesterday, its action stations today.

1. Top US and Belarus Generals have talked

2. Miley and Gerosimov as well as (very rare) Austin and Shoigu have talked

3. Biden has talked to Putin

4. The Russian buildup continues, now very unusually large

5. US and UK trainers are leaving this weekend

6. US and UK embassy now down to skeleton staff levels. US burning documents and removing sensitive gear.7. £0 ships of Black Sea fleet now at sea for their NOTAM exercise


Pepe Escobar@RealPepeEscobar·12m
France - based on the latest Putin-Macron call - and Turkey - based on its own intel - inform that the never-ending Russian invasion of Ukraine will NOT happen on Tuesday or Wednesday, as guaranteed by the Moronic Inferno.

Mike Mihajlovic@MihajlovicMike·22h
If the OSCE mission is "depleted" of observers there will be no one to monitor the front line in Donbas, clearing the path for provocations on a large scale that may turn into large scale war. No records, no evidence that is all that "somebody" needs for blame. Depletion started.

It seems the Marshall Shaposhnikov has painted Virginia class with active sonar and detonated anti swimmer grenades

But in order to first detect the US submarine , I wonder if garmony, or Russian midget submarines are what initially detected the virginia

In any case this result is very good, the Virginia is supposed to be US #1 submarine,

The fact it was detected can only mean Russian ASW is at qualitatively entirely superior level

Arkanghelsk wrote:It seems the Marshall Shaposhnikov has painted Virginia class with active sonar and detonated anti swimmer grenades

But in order to first detect the US submarine , I wonder if garmony,  or Russian midget submarines are what initially detected the virginia

In any case this result is very good, the Virginia is supposed to be US #1 submarine,

The fact it was detected can only mean Russian ASW is at qualitatively entirely superior level

They did this before, like 6 years ago in Arctic waters.

sundoesntrise wrote:
If Putin lets this slide and pulls his turd back in there'll be advanced NATO missile systems on Ukrainian territory within 12 months. You can take that to the bank.

There will be 'advanced Nato missile systems in orcland' about the time you see Satan driving a Kenworth with a 10 foot Meyers blade on the front clearing the snow in Hades. You can take that to the bank.

Auslander

Kuril Islands , are far from Ukraine . What ? The Yanks see a " weakness " in the Eastern flank ? Now that forces are concentrated in the Black Sea ? Do they think that war against Russia , will be conventional ? With time to divide their forces ? Yes , war between America and Russia will be conventional for a day , no more . They still think in terms of WWII " over - extended supply lines and wars of attrition  " in the Atomic age . So they better put their forces on Defcon 4 .

About Ukraine side provocations , and OSCE leaving . Then evidence needs to be gathered about troop movements and  any actual attacks . Cameras hidden in the field can provide real-time video recordings . Identifying units and even individuals . Consequences for breaching Minsk .


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KM1u8osq_Bc

In reply to:
Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #32
Post  medo Today at 2:23 pm

quote: I have some questions for Auslander, who is better informed. I read in Yandex, that a lot of volunteers from other regions of Ukraine come to LDNR to fight together with LDNR army against US-nazi regime in Kiev, to liberate Ukraine. it also seems, that Harkov become a center of resistance against evil clown and that nazi radikals are leaving Harkov, as they don't believe Ukrainian army will succede in war in Donbass. That "patriotic marsh" in Harkov few days ago was done with nazi radical groups, which come in Harkov from western parts of Ukraine and that there were no citizens of Harkov.: quote

I have no contacts in Kharkov. Russia will NOT 'invade' orcland. Won't happen. However, I have no doubts that both the North Wind and the South Wind will blow, ergo Novorossiya is safe.

Local sitrep: I will write a small part of what I wrote early this morning to someone I trust with my life. Over the last few weeks VCO and I have stocked up for whatever may come. Main concern has been nonperishable canned staples and food for the children. We lost old Ruslan this Sunday past, he made it to within days of 18 years, truly ancient for a koli, and he's now to rest in the hills overlooking Inkerman with his mother and father and his sister Ella. This leaves us with four children, Sophia, her half sister Ye'katarina, huge young Aleksandr and our new baby blue girl Kristl'Yannah, 11 months and a nuclear power plant on four legs. Ye'katarina and Kristl'Yannah have a special diet, one for age with severe arthritis and one for growing like a weed youth. Food comes from Mainland near the east end of the bridge, ergo a goodly distance.

Tomorrow bright and early, read 07:00, our driver takes VCO to Bahxchisarai to stock up on sugar, more buckwheat, flour for bread baking, good meat and Tatari sausage. I go to top off everything, truck, diesel for generator and benzene for the Kamazik with an extra jug of benzene for the Kamazik (ancient minivan). She this morning ordered more special dog food for Ye'katarina and Krista and meds for Ye'katarina. We already have a month's supply of Russian field rations.

If nothing comes to a head we'll eat good for a long time. Field Rats we'll use this summer with Red Army on the FTX's. On the other hand I got an email at 05:30 this morning. "Polish your and her boots." Read in to that what you want but I know what it means, so boots are polished to mirror finish.

Auslander

auslander wrote:

sundoesntrise wrote:
If Putin lets this slide and pulls his turd back in there'll be advanced NATO missile systems on Ukrainian territory within 12 months. You can take that to the bank.

There will be 'advanced Nato missile systems in orcland' about the time you see Satan driving a Kenworth with a 10 foot Meyers blade on the front clearing the snow in Hades. You can take that to the bank.

Auslander

First question is what advanced NATO missile system?

Russian cargo ship on it´s way to the Black Sea. That´s it! These trailers are the missing parts for the invasion!

SeigSoloyvov wrote:A Russian invasion of Ukraine would be more costly than its worth, what type of fool would think they want to invade?.


Russia will not invade unless they feel there is truly no other choice,.

As far as preventing Ukraine from turning into Poland and Romania , there isn't any other choice.

Mark Sleboda mentioned a decapitation strike. Its not about occupation.

Are those field kitchens ?

Isos wrote:Are those field kitchens ?

Could be field kitchen, could be diesel agregate, could be simple cargo trailers. They are green, but this doesn't necessary mean, they are military ones. Could be civil ones imported from other country. I don't know, why would Russian army sail few trailers by a ship around Europe, when they could transport them from one part of Russia to another by train or trucks.

Arkanghelsk wrote:It seems the Marshall Shaposhnikov has painted Virginia class with active sonar and detonated anti swimmer grenades

But in order to first detect the US submarine , I wonder if garmony,  or Russian midget submarines are what initially detected the virginia

In any case this result is very good, the Virginia is supposed to be US #1 submarine,

The fact it was detected can only mean Russian ASW is at qualitatively entirely superior level

This is quite good result, considering, that whole NATO search for a Russian Kilo sub in Mediterranian sea for a week and could not find it.

It got the nickname black hole for a reason. Sitting on the thermocline it is invisible to all sonar.

Not only did they detect and track the Virginia, they also identified it as a Virginia.

Sorry Americans, the Russians did not know that the Virginias are so quiet that they are impossible to detect.

Krepost wrote:Not only did they detect and track the Virginia, they also identified it as a Virginia.

Sorry Americans, the Russians did not know that the Virginias are so quiet that they are impossible to detect.

This is like the 2nd time in 6 years, and the other time happened in the Arctic. BTW that reminds me of something!  

magnumcromagnon wrote:

Krepost wrote:Not only did they detect and track the Virginia, they also identified it as a Virginia.

Sorry Americans, the Russians did not know that the Virginias are so quiet that they are impossible to detect.

This is like the 2nd time in 6 years, and the other time happened in the Arctic. BTW that reminds me of something!  

Bombed into submission. They shot down a stealth bomber through pure luck because it had not jamming support that night and flew the same route over and over. Country destroyed. Their IADs was completely destroyed/suppressed incapable of hampering NATO air operation.

“We didn’t know it was invisible” while their country lays in ruins from the bombs and cruise missiles. Lmao.

This mindset is pitiful.

Yeah detecting a Virginia class sub as it was skulking around is a feather in the cap of russian asw capabilities. Nations will see this and eventually CAATSA will be worthless. So freaking awesome. I've read from multiple western sources over time in candid speech that russian submariners are at the very top calibre of their trade worldwide. Their professionalism and their mystique has stayed and may have even grown more than even during Soviet times.