flamming_python wrote:sundoesntrise wrote:flamming_python wrote:
Well you can check out the press conference yourself and come to your own conclusions
Starts at 1:14:40
The dynamics of Europe are such that Russia and the UK, as periphery states, always come together when continental Europe becomes too 'united' so to speak.
I see it as plausible that the UK (US) agreed to manage Russian security concerns and increase their own ties, at the expense of France and Germany grabbing the initiative.
If France and Germany had the power to force Kiev to comply with Minsk, it would have been a different story.
But as Kozak's press conference after the 9-hour Normandy Format talks on Thursday night suggests, France and Germany did not put pressure on Kiev and allowed it to interpret Minsk in its own way.
1:33:20 Wallace answers a question about how he understands the Minsk document, where he answers that he interprets it as what is actually written there. Then he hints that the process can take years. Which on the one hand, is the US and UK playing for time and drawing out Russia's demands for a response on NATO expansion; but effectively it also means that the Ukraine is stuck in implementing Minsk, which was Russia's preferred solution in the first place and takes away the threat of it ever joining NATO.
As you can see, it's not about trust. It's about signed guarantees.
The only dynamic that matters is the rabiate dedication much of the 'Western partners' have to the destruction of Russia. A dynamic that has withstood the test of time and should be the main prisms through which this whole charade is viewed
Once that sinks in cheap words from interchangeable clowns in a suit suddenly become a lot less reassuring. Especially when these people are actually not saying anything new.
If Putin lets this slide and pulls his turd back in there'll be advanced NATO missile systems on Ukrainian territory within 12 months.
You can take that to the bank.
They're not taking this position because they want to, but because all the alternatives are worse
If they can't have Russia onside against China in exchange for the Ukraine back, then at least they want to discourage it from getting any closer to it than it already has, and to keep the Europeans from breaking out.
China is their main worry, not Russia.
Overall, not the most ideal deal for either the US/UK or Russia. But it strengthens the positions of both sides in Europe, and so it works.
This is quite frankly why I prefer not to get into arguments online. Before you know it you get sucked into time consuming back and forths with faceless anons. Mea culpa, i shouldn't have bitten in the first place.
I generally consider your posts well-informed and thought provoking. Unfortunately in this case your arguments have holes so big that you can drive entire Freedom Trucks through them. Reminds me of last summer when you predicted the end of Israel when Hamad launched a couple of firecrackers on sticks over the border
On this topic I will say that your assessment that 'China is their main foe' is flat out wrong. Very few people in the current administration think like that. In fact the entire US political class barring a few MAGA types is in bed with the Chinese business/political elite through shady dealings and other grift. BlackRock has recently amped up their Chinese investment portfolio by a couple of trillions. George Soros doesn't like Xi but Larry Fink certainly does.
As for the Europeans, they can start thinking about 'breaking out' when each and every US soldier has packed its bags and quietly left. I will only mention the economic dominance the US has through the petrodollar/world's reserve currency here due to time. Newsflash: US will only let go of Europe after a shooting war or a sudden domestic turn to isolationism. Both are extremely unlikely. I never understood the discussion on Germany/France blowing up NATO anyway. The last one that tried sometjing remotely similar was Chirac - you can look up how he ended. That stuff just isn't going to happen.
Even if your theories are taken at face value - the US giving up on Ukraine would not lead to Russia breaking up with China. That doesn't make any sense from whatever angle you look at it.