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    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #3

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    par far

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    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #3 - Page 7 Empty Re: 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #3

    Post  par far Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:15 am

    Backman wrote:
    par far wrote:"Russian Service Member Found Dead In Armenia’s Gyumri"

    RIP.

    Hopefully they find out what happened.

    https://southfront.org/russian-service-member-found-dead-in-armenias-gyumri/

    The 102nd Military Base in Gyumri is the largest Russian military installation in Armenia. From 3,000 to 5,000 Russian service members, including border guards, are deployed in the country. About 2,000 additional troops will be carrying out the peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh.

    So it wasn't a soldier in the peace keeping effort. But the western media will spare that detail. And then the Russia pseudo experts will say "muh shades of Afghanistan"



    Who gives a fuck what the west media is saying, hopefully they find out what happened.
    KoTeMoRe
    KoTeMoRe

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    Post  KoTeMoRe Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:37 am

    medo wrote:https://vpk.name/news/465491_nam_ne_strashen_bairaktar.html

    Российские комплексы ПВО малой дальности надежны лишь в случае их правильной эксплуатации

    По результатам шестинедельной войны между Арменией и Азербайджаном военные эксперты чуть ли не единодушно заявляют о закате эпохи бронетехники. Танк превратился в этакого реликтового динозавра, который нещадно бьют беспилотники, «завоевавшие в новом веке господство в небе». Идут ссылки на эффектные видеопотоки, отображающие поражение танков высокоточными ракетами, запущенными турецкими ударно-разведывательными БЛА Bayraktar TB2. Более того, статистика черпается из турецких газет, которые изо всей силы рекламируют свои «Байрактары», чтобы они сместили бренд «Калашников» с первой позиции мирового рейтинга.

    То есть утверждается, что именно беспилотники уничтожили почти 130 армянских танков. Хоть на азербайджанской стороне в войне принимали участие и ствольная артиллерия, и реактивная, и ракетные комплексы, и бронетехника, и в конце концов пехотинцы с ПТРК.

    «Стрела» мимо цели

    Да, потери Армении в этой войне очень значительны. И если бы не перемирие с введением миротворцев, то к Азербайджану мог бы перейти весь Нагорный Карабах. Но порой можно услышать, что военную технику удалось бы сохранить, если бы Армения в свое время закупила зенитные ракетно-пушечные комплексы (ЗРПК) «Панцирь-С1». Однако это заблуждение, поскольку «Панцирь» – это средство, относящееся к Войскам ПВО и предназначенное для защиты от воздушных атак стационарных объектов. Танки и другую военную технику защищают в местах базирования, на марше и во время боевых действий войсковые зенитно-ракетные комплексы. Их отличительная особенность заключается в использовании гусеничных шасси для возможности передвижения по сильно пересеченной местности. А ЗРК на колесных шасси подгоняют к охраняемому объекту, где они встают на боевое дежурство.

    У Армении есть ЗРК, способные эффективно бороться с любыми беспилотниками, даже с куда более эффективными, чем «середнячок» «Байрактар». Они в войне не участвовали. Но вначале о тех ЗРК, которые воевали и провалили оборону, позволив турецким и израильским дронам громить армянскую военную технику. Хотя она в отличие от азербайджанской по большей части советская, то есть уже далеко не новая, и только слегка российская.

    Основная нагрузка по защите войск Армении и Нагорного Карабаха была возложена на ЗРК конца 60-х годов «Стрела-10» и «Оса-АКМ». И как ни странно, по результатам летних армяно-российских учений ПВО была дана высокая готовность Армении отражать воздушные налеты. Особо был отмечен ЗРК «Оса-АКМ».

    Но в первую же неделю войны турецкие беспилотники сильно проредили батареи обоих этих комплексов.

    Потому что они были не в состоянии бороться с «Байрактарами», потолок которых равен восьми тысячам метров, а ЭПР (то есть радиолокационная заметность) находится в районе 0,1 квадратного метра или даже ниже. Максимальная высота перехвата воздушных целей для «Стрелы-10» составляет всего лишь три тысячи метров. У «Осы-АКМ» этот параметр достигает пяти тысяч метров, но и она неспособна дотянуться до турецкого беспилотника.

    Правда, при реализации ударной функции дрону, конечно, приходится опускаться ниже своего потолка. Но и в этом случае шансы перехвата беспилотника у этих двух ЗРК невелики. Потому что оба этих комплекса создавались еще до того, как появились летательные аппараты со сниженной заметностью. Такие как беспилотники, крылатые ракеты и самолеты, построенные с применением стелс-технологий, у которых ЭПР от 0,1 квадратного метра и ниже.

    Без особых проблем разобравшись с войсковыми комплексами ПВО, беспилотники приступили к безнаказанному разгрому танков и прочей армянской военной техники.

    Армяне могли остановить турецкие дроны

    В то же время Армения обладает войсковыми комплексами, которые быстро поставили бы на место турок, которые по сути управляли «Байрактарами», находясь на территории Азербайджана. Была существенная помощь и с турецкой территории, где вдоль границы с Арменией барражировал самолет ДРЛО, передававший координаты обнаруженных целей азербайджанцам.

    Но войсковые ЗРК «Тор-М2КМ» (ближнего действия) и «Бук-М2Э» (средней дальности) были намертво привязаны к Еревану и Мецаморской атомной электростанции. Конечно, защите особо важных объектов и территорий необходимо уделять повышенное внимание. Однако при планировании действий сухопутных войск, лишенных эффективных средств отражения воздушных атак, можно было предвидеть катастрофу осени 2020 года.

    «Тор-М2КМ» – модификация ЗРК, принятая на вооружение в 2015 году. Оснащен восемью ЗУР с дальностью стрельбы до 15 километров и высотой перехвата до 10 километров. Способен обнаруживать и сбивать цели с ЭПР 0,02–0,05 квадратного метра. Ракета маневрирует с перегрузкой 30 g, максимальная перегрузочная способность перехватываемых целей – 12 g. Скорость – 2,4 Маха. Наведение радиокомандное. Одновременно обнаруживается 48 целей, сопровождается 10, обстреливается 4. Как видим, у «Байрактара» нет никаких шансов уцелеть, попав в зону действия этого ЗРК.

    За создание ЗРК «Бук-М2Э» разработчикам комплекса из НИИ приборостроения им. В. В. Тихомирова в 2013 году была присвоена премия Правительства РФ. Максимальная дальность стрельбы – 45 километров. Перехват осуществляется на высотах от 15 метров до 25 километров. Способен сбивать аэродинамические цели, имеющие скорость до 2,5 Маха, и баллистические – до 4 Махов. Одновременно обстреливает до 24 целей. ЭПР перехватываемых целей – 0,05–0,07.

    Когда эти два комплекса убирают подальше от театра военных действий, то тогда и начинаются разговоры о том, что беспилотники открыли новую эру в стратегии и тактике военных действий.

    ПЗРК на гусеничном ходу

    А между тем в России продолжается не только модификация уже существующих войсковых ЗРК ближнего действия и малой дальности, но и создание новых, которые наилучшим образом решали бы как классические, так и новые задачи противовоздушной и противоракетной обороны. Летом 2019 года на вооружение был принят ЗРК ближнего действия «Сосна», разработанный в КБ точного машиностроения им. А. Э. Нудельмана. Комплекс был создан на замену ЗРК «Стрела-10», о котором было сказано выше. У «Стрелы» есть свои достоинства. Ее ракета оснащена инфракрасной головкой наведения с предварительным охлаждением жидким азотом. На момент создания комплекса это было, можно сказать, революционно. Не требовалось радиокомандного наведения ракеты на цель, все работало по принципу «выстрелил – забыл».

    Но самым слабым местом «Стрелы-10» является примитивная система управления огнем, то есть определения координат цели. Наводчик высматривает цель в окуляр прицела, наводит на нее луч дальномера, и вычислительное устройство по положению оси прицела и дальности цели определяет ее координаты. Точнее – определяется область пространства, в которой находится цель. А дальше все делает ГСН, захватив цель и направляя на нее ракету. Но это работает на небольшом удалении от цели, а когда оно велико, то «голова» ракеты может и не обнаружить цель. Именно поэтому у «Стрелы-10» очень небольшой радиус перехвата даже в сравнении с другими ЗРК ближнего действия: дальность – пять километров, высота – три километра. Даже у ПЗРК, которые работают по такому же принципу, эти характеристики лучше. Например, у «Вербы» максимальная дальность стрельбы равна шести километрам, высота – 3,5 километра. В этом ряду следует упомянуть американский комплекс M1097 Avenger, созданный по принципу «Дешево и сердито». Он представляет собой бронированный армейский джип, на котором установлены восемь ракет ПЗРК «Стингер».

    «Сосна» до потолка

    У «Сосны» существенно улучшен механизм обнаружения и сопровождения цели. Для этого используется оптико-электронная система управления вооружением, имеющая один телевизионный канал и два тепловизионных, отличающихся длиной рабочей волны. Ракета на конечном участке маршрута после отделения маршевого двигателя наводится лазерным лучом. Вероятность поражения цели увеличивается за счет использования в боевой части как контактного, так и неконтактного взрывателя. Комплекс способен работать и в автоматическом режиме без участия экипажа, и в полуавтоматическом, когда некоторые процедуры исполняются оператором.

    Зона гарантированного перехвата по дальности – 1,3–10 километров, по высоте – 0,002–5 километров. Ракета 9М340 обладает прекрасной маневренностью, сохраняя все свои параметры при перегрузках до 40 g.

    Система управления вооружением, как утверждают разработчики, способна в равной степени работать не только в любое время суток, но и при любой погоде. То есть негативные атмосферные явления, конечно, снижают ее «зрение», но в незначительной степени.

    Самолеты обнаруживаются на расстоянии 30 километров, крылатые ракеты и беспилотники – 12 километров. «Сосна» может поражать и наземные цели, включая танки, для чего среди различных типов БЧ есть и бронебойные. Танк обнаруживается на расстоянии до восьми километров.

    Ракетный и приборный блоки установлены на гусеничном шасси – на многоцелевом тягаче легком бронированном МТ-ЛБ. Он способен не только перемещаться по сильно пересеченной местности, но и плавать. Этот вариант шасси применяется для вооружения Сухопутных войск России. При продаже за границу покупатель может подобрать нужное ему шасси. Экипаж – два человека. Боевая машина вооружена 12 ракетами в транспортно-пусковых контейнерах.

    «Сосна» выгодно отличается от тех комплексов, в которых поиск целей осуществляется при помощи радиолокации. РЛС демаскирует ЗРК, что чревато тем, что с расстояния, недосягаемого для ЗРК, прилетит противорадиолокационная ракета. И не одна, а несколько, отразить которые будет непросто. Оптическая система локации, использующаяся в «Сосне», никакие волны в пространство не посылает. При этом комплекс может получать целеуказание и от внешних источников.

    Комплекс в равной мере способен перехватывать низколетящие цели, идущие с огибанием рельефа местности, маневрирующие и сверхзвуковые. А также цели с низкой ЭПР, для оптической системы локации ее величина не имеет значения. За счет того, что ракета наводится по лазерному лучу, на нее не действуют средства радиоэлектронной борьбы противника. Также не реагирует она на тепловые ловушки.

    Перспективные комплексы

    А между тем в очереди за тем, чтобы внедриться в войсковые структуры ПВО, стоит перспективный ЗРК «Птицелов». ОКР по его созданию должна завершиться в 2022 году.

    Точнее – «Птицеловов» должно быть два. Первый – для ВДВ, и он разрабатывается авиадесантируемым. Его создают на гусеничном шасси боевой машины десанта БМД-4М. Второй – для Сухопутных войск. И он будет построен на гусеничном шасси БМП-3.

    А все, что располагается на шасси – пусковая установка, система управления огнем, ракеты, будет позаимствовано у ЗРК «Сосна». То есть принцип работы остается абсолютно таким же. КБ точного машиностроения, занятое в этих проектах, крайне скупо выдает информацию об облике обоих перспективных комплексов. Известно лишь, что боекомплект дополнят новой ракетой, обладающей большей дальностью и высотой перехвата. И нам только остается предположить, что помимо этого будут улучшены какие-то характеристики.

    В скором времени должна завершиться еще одна перспективная разработка. Но не ЗРК, а зенитного артиллерийского комплекса (ЗАК) «Деривация-ПВО». Он создан на базе гусеничного шасси БМП-3 с необитаемым модулем, в котором расположена пушка калибра 57 миллиметров и спаренный с ней пулемет калибра 7,62 миллиметра. Данный калибр танковых орудий времен Второй мировой войны в этом веке стал вновь востребован, постепенно вытесняя из обращения 30-мм пушки. У него существенно большее огневое могущество и дальность стрельбы, недоступная орудиям традиционных зенитных и авиационных калибров.

    Более того, этот калибр удалось приспособить под создание управляемых снарядов. Для «Деривации-ПВО» их создало КБ точного машиностроения, а саму скорострельную автоматическую пушку вместе с боевым модулем разработали в нижегородском ЦНИИ «Буревестник». У этих снарядов осуществляется управление не траекторией полета, а моментом подрыва. При дистанционном подрыве разлетающиеся осколки поражают цели в значительном объеме пространства. За счет этого результат приблизился к показателям зенитных ракет. Вероятность поражения двумя управляемыми снарядами малоразмерной цели, имеющей звуковую скорость, как крылатая ракета и беспилотник, равна 0,8.

    Боекомплект пушки – 148 выстрелов. Скорострельность – 120 выстрелов в минуту. Дальность стрельбы – 8–10 километров, высота – 4,5 километра.

    В «Деривации-ПВО», как и в ЗРК «Сосна», система управления огнем оптико-электронная. То есть комплекс не демаскирует себя никакими излучениями. И этим да, собственно, и всем остальным он отличается от ближайшего «родственника», точнее – «предка». В 1964 году на вооружение был принят ЗАК «Шилка», в котором для повышения точности стрельбы в прицельную систему ввели РЛС. Однако толку от этого было немного. Из четырех стволов «Шилка» выпускает в минуту 3400 снарядов калибра 23 миллиметра. Однако дальность стрельбы не превышает 2,5 километра, высота – 1,5 километра. С такой дальностью в современных условиях «Шилка» совершенно бесполезна. Однако она все еще продолжает оставаться в войсках.

    Все ждут прихода «Деривации-ПВО», повторяя, словно заклинание: вот она-то разберется с беспилотниками. Однако в Российской армии достаточно различных комплексов, чтобы уже сейчас разобраться с этим изрядно демонизированным летательным аппаратом.


    Владимир Тучков

    Газета "Военно-промышленный курьер", опубликовано в выпуске № 45 (858) за 24 ноября 2020 года

    Russian short-range air defense systems are reliable only if they are properly operated

    According to the results of the six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, military experts almost unanimously declare the decline of the era of armored vehicles. The tank has turned into a kind of relict dinosaur, which is mercilessly beaten by drones, "who have won dominance in the sky in the new century." There are links to spectacular video feeds depicting the defeat of tanks by high-precision missiles launched by the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 attack and reconnaissance UAVs. Moreover, the statistics are drawn from Turkish newspapers, which advertise their Bayraktars with all their might so that they displace the Kalashnikov brand from the first position in the world ranking.

    That is, it is argued that it was the drones that destroyed almost 130 Armenian tanks. Although on the Azerbaijani side, barrel artillery, and rocket artillery, and missile systems, and armored vehicles, and finally infantrymen with ATGMs took part in the war.

    Arrow misses the target

    Yes, Armenia's losses in this war are very significant. And if not for the truce with the introduction of peacekeepers, then the entire Nagorno-Karabakh could pass to Azerbaijan. But sometimes you can hear that the military equipment could have been preserved if Armenia had bought the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile-cannon systems (ZRPK). However, this is a delusion, since the "Shell" is a means related to the Air Defense Forces and is designed to protect stationary objects from air attacks. Tanks and other military equipment are defended by military anti-aircraft missile systems at their bases, on the march and during hostilities. Their distinctive feature lies in the use of tracked chassis for the ability to move over very rough terrain. And the air defense missile systems on wheeled chassis are adjusted to the guarded object, where they stand on alert.

    Armenia has air defense systems capable of effectively fighting any drones, even with much more effective than the "middle peasant" "Bayraktar". They did not participate in the war. But first, about those air defense systems that fought and failed the defense, allowing Turkish and Israeli drones to smash Armenian military equipment. Although, unlike Azerbaijan, it is mostly Soviet, that is, it is far from new, and only slightly Russian.

    The main burden of protecting the troops of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh was assigned to the air defense systems of the late 60s "Strela-10" and "Osa-AKM". And oddly enough, according to the results of the summer Armenian-Russian air defense exercises, Armenia was given a high readiness to repel air raids. The Osa-AKM air defense missile system was especially noted.

    But in the very first week of the war, Turkish drones severely thinned the batteries of both of these complexes.

    Because they were unable to fight the Bayraktar, whose ceiling is eight thousand meters, and the EPR (that is, radar signature) is in the area of ​​0.1 square meters or even lower. The maximum height for intercepting air targets for Strela-10 is only three thousand meters. At "Osa-AKM" this parameter reaches five thousand meters, but it is also unable to reach the Turkish drone.

    True, when implementing the shock function, the drone, of course, has to sink below its ceiling. But even in this case, the chances of intercepting the drone from these two air defense systems are small. Because both of these complexes were created even before there were aircraft with reduced visibility. Such as drones, cruise missiles and airplanes built using stealth technology, which have an RCS of 0.1 square meter and below.

    Having dealt with the military air defense systems without any problems, the drones proceeded to the unpunished destruction of tanks and other Armenian military equipment.

    Armenians could stop Turkish drones

    At the same time, Armenia possesses military complexes that would quickly put in place the Turks, who, in fact, ruled the Bayraktars from the territory of Azerbaijan. There was substantial assistance from Turkish territory, where an AWACS aircraft patrolled along the border with Armenia, transmitting the coordinates of the detected targets to the Azerbaijanis.

    But the military air defense systems "Tor-M2KM" (short-range) and "Buk-M2E" (medium-range) were tightly tied to Yerevan and the Metsamor nuclear power plant. Of course, special attention should be paid to the protection of especially important facilities and territories. However, when planning the actions of the ground forces, deprived of effective means of repelling air attacks, it was possible to foresee the catastrophe of the fall of 2020.

    Tor-M2KM is a modification of the air defense missile system, which was put into service in 2015. Equipped with eight missiles with a firing range of up to 15 kilometers and an interception height of up to 10 kilometers. Capable of detecting and shooting down targets with an RCS of 0.02–0.05 square meters. The missile maneuvers with an overload of 30 g, the maximum overload capacity of intercepted targets is 12 g. Speed ​​- Mach 2.4. Radio command guidance. At the same time 48 targets are detected, followed by 10, fired at 4. As we can see, "Bayraktar" has no chance of surviving, having fallen into the range of this air defense system.

    For the creation of the Buk-M2E air defense system to the developers of the complex from the Research Institute of Instrument Engineering named after V. V. Tikhomirov was awarded the prize of the Government of the Russian Federation in 2013. The maximum firing range is 45 kilometers. Interception is carried out at altitudes from 15 meters to 25 kilometers. It is capable of shooting down aerodynamic targets with speeds up to Mach 2.5, and ballistic targets up to Mach 4. Simultaneously fires up to 24 targets. EPR of intercepted targets - 0.05–0.07.

    When these two complexes are removed away from the theater of operations, then talk begins that drones have opened a new era in the strategy and tactics of military operations.

    Crawler-mounted MANPADS

    Meanwhile, Russia continues not only to modify the existing military short-range and short-range air defense systems, but also to create new ones that would best solve both classical and new tasks of air and missile defense. In the summer of 2019, the Sosna short-range air defense missile system, developed at the Precision Engineering Design Bureau named after V.I. A.E. Nudelman. The complex was created to replace the Strela-10 air defense system, which was mentioned above. Strela has its merits. Its rocket is equipped with an infrared guidance head pre-cooled with liquid nitrogen. At the time the complex was created, it was, one might say, revolutionary. There was no need for radio command guidance of the missile at the target, everything worked according to the principle "fire - forget".

    But the weakest point of Strela-10 is the primitive fire control system, that is, determining the coordinates of the target. The gunner looks out for the target through the sight eyepiece, directs the rangefinder beam at it, and the computing device determines its coordinates by the position of the sight axis and the target range. More precisely, the area of ​​space in which the target is located is determined. And then the GOS does everything, capturing the target and directing the rocket at it. But this works at a small distance from the target, and when it is large, the "head" of the rocket may not detect the target. That is why Strela-10 has a very small interception radius, even in comparison with other short-range air defense systems: range - five kilometers, height - three kilometers. Even MANPADS, which work on the same principle, have better characteristics. For example, the "Verba" has a maximum firing range of 6 kilometers and a height of 3.5 kilometers. In this series, mention should be made of the American complex M1097 Avenger, created according to the "Cheap and Merry" principle. It is an armored army jeep with eight Stinger MANPADS missiles.

    "Pine" to the ceiling

    Sosna has significantly improved target detection and tracking mechanism. For this, an optoelectronic weapon control system is used, which has one television channel and two thermal imaging channels, differing in the operating wavelength. The rocket on the final leg of the route after separation of the main engine is guided by a laser beam. The probability of hitting a target increases due to the use of both a contact and a proximity fuse in the warhead. The complex is capable of operating both in automatic mode without the participation of the crew, and in semi-automatic mode, when some procedures are performed by the operator.

    The guaranteed interception zone is 1.3–10 kilometers in range and 0.002–5 kilometers in height. The 9M340 rocket has excellent maneuverability, maintaining all its parameters at overloads up to 40 g.

    The weapons control system, according to the developers, is equally capable of working not only at any time of the day, but in any weather. That is, negative atmospheric phenomena, of course, reduce her "vision", but to an insignificant extent.

    Aircraft are detected at a distance of 30 kilometers, cruise missiles and drones - 12 kilometers. "Pine" can also hit ground targets, including tanks, for which among the various types of warheads there are also armor-piercing ones. The tank is detected at a distance of up to eight kilometers.

    The rocket and instrument units are mounted on a tracked chassis - on a multi-purpose light armored tractor MT-LB. He is able not only to move over very rough terrain, but also to swim. This chassis variant is used to arm the Russian Ground Forces. When selling overseas, the buyer can choose the chassis he needs. The crew is two people. The combat vehicle is armed with 12 missiles in transport and launch containers.

    "Sosna" compares favorably with those complexes in which the search for targets is carried out using radar. The radar unmasks the air defense missile system, which is fraught with the fact that an anti-radar missile will arrive from a distance unattainable for the air defense system. And not one, but several, which will be difficult to reflect. The optical locating system used in Pine does not send any waves into space. In this case, the complex can receive target designation from external sources.

    The complex is equally capable of intercepting low-flying targets, going around the terrain, maneuvering and supersonic. As well as targets with a low ESR, its value does not matter for the optical location system. Due to the fact that the missile is guided by a laser beam, the enemy's electronic warfare means do not act on it. It also does not react to heat traps.

    Promising complexes

    Meanwhile, a promising air defense system "Ptitselov" is in line to infiltrate the military air defense structures. R&D work on its creation should be completed in 2022.

    More precisely - there should be two "Birdies". The first is for the Airborne Forces, and it is being developed by airborne troops. It is created on the tracked chassis of the BMD-4M airborne combat vehicle. The second is for the Ground Forces. And it will be built on the BMP-3 tracked chassis.

    And everything that is located on the chassis - the launcher, the fire control system, missiles, will be borrowed from the Sosna air defense system. That is, the principle of operation remains exactly the same. The precision engineering design bureau, engaged in these projects, is extremely sparingly giving out information about the appearance of both promising complexes. It is only known that the ammunition load will be supplemented with a new missile with a greater range and interception height. And we can only assume that in addition to this, some characteristics will be improved.

    Another promising development should be completed soon. But not the air defense system, but the anti-aircraft artillery complex (ZAK) "Derivation-air defense" It was created on the basis of the BMP-3 tracked chassis with an uninhabited module, which houses a 57 mm cannon and a 7.62 mm machine gun paired with it. This caliber of tank guns of the Second World War in this century has become again in demand, gradually displacing the 30-mm cannon from circulation. It has significantly greater firepower and firing range, inaccessible to guns of traditional anti-aircraft and aviation calibers.

    Moreover, this caliber was adapted to the creation of guided projectiles. For "Derivation-Air Defense" they were created by the Design Bureau of Precision Engineering, and the rapid-fire automatic cannon itself, together with the combat module, was developed at the Nizhny Novgorod Central Research Institute "Burevestnik". These projectiles are not controlled by the flight path, but by the moment of detonation. With remote detonation, flying fragments hit targets in a significant amount of space. Due to this, the result came close to that of anti-aircraft missiles. The probability of hitting a small target with two guided missiles with a sonic speed, like a cruise missile and a drone, is 0.8.

    Gun ammunition - 148 rounds. Rate of fire - 120 rounds per minute. The firing range is 8-10 kilometers, the height is 4.5 kilometers.

    In "Derivation-PVO", as in the "Sosna" air defense missile system, the fire control system is optical-electronic. That is, the complex does not unmask itself with any radiation. And this yes, in fact, and everything else, he differs from the closest "relative", more precisely - the "ancestor". In 1964, the ZAK "Shilka" was adopted, in which a radar was introduced into the sighting system to improve the accuracy of shooting. However, this was of little use. From four barrels "Shilka" releases 3400 shells of 23 mm caliber per minute. However, the firing range does not exceed 2.5 kilometers, the height is 1.5 kilometers. With such a range in modern conditions, "Shilka" is completely useless. However, she still continues to be in the army.

    Everyone is waiting for the arrival of "Derivation-Air Defense", repeating, like a spell: here she will deal with the drones. However, the Russian army has enough different systems to deal with this pretty demonized aircraft now.

    Vladimir Tuchkov

    The newspaper "Military Industrial Courier", published in issue No. 45 (858) for November 24, 2020

    Interesting Russian analysis.

    While this states things that are known, it feels like it is missing three big issues.

    1. Most of the OSA's in the first week were NOT destroyed by TB's but by Harops.
    2. The integration of fires (Shilka/Strela10/OSA/TOR/BUK) was simply not there. Shilka which are supposed to be the close range protection for the rest of the SHORAD's was absolutely nowhere to be seen.
    3. The TB-2 was employed once SHORAD was out of the picture, but it is the intelligence exploitation from air/on the ground (by Turkey).
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Fri Nov 27, 2020 12:00 pm

    Backman wrote:
    par far wrote:"Turkey Set Up Offices In Afrin, For Turkmen Families To Register For Settling In Nagorno-Karabakh"


    https://southfront.org/turkey-set-up-offices-in-afrin-for-turkmen-families-to-register-for-settling-in-nagorno-karabakh/


    I am a bit hesitant about this story until some more evidence comes out. Its all hearsay from unnamed sources. I don't think Aliyev is reckless and stupid enough for this dirty business. He doesn't want there to be partisan/ethnic fighting in the area long term.  For Aliyev , it was just about getting the territories back. Now his main goal is to dial down the tension with Armenians.

    Aliyev isn't a stupid guy. He goes to all of the conferences and events that Russia invites him to (unlike Pashinyan) This would be totally unacceptable to Putin. Russia is not going to sit there holding the peace so that camps of terrorists can move in.

    What the fuck do I get to read?

    Alieyv is the dumbest motherfucker of the region. He won the Oil Lottery 30 years ago when the USSR collapsed and his dad grabbed power in AZ.
    This is the person who openly stated:

    -1. It was a counter attack against Armenia following Armenian assault.
    -2. Turkish planes and military was not in AZ.
    -3. Turkish planes and military were in AZ, but only to protect AZ from foreign internvention...
    -4. That Armenia used Smerch against civilians by showing Israeli DPCIM.
    -5. That Armenia violated the CF agreements while his own troops were sending footage of their advance in NK.
    -6. That Armenia was employing mercenaries, in the face of Shoigu, while his Turkish packages were also sending videos from NK.

    This person has an axe to grind with Russia which takes out a fair share of his oil through various instruments and who owns his little shitstain of a country. If he could he would absolutely start a war. The problem is that he cannot. He's as much of a cuck as Pashinyan now.
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    Post  LMFS Fri Nov 27, 2020 1:39 pm

    Since when is geopolitics a matter for vapid morality discussions? A good state policy must contain elements of legitimacy to be sustainable, that's all. Aliyev may be cunning but he was legitimated to do what he did, Pashinyan was neither cunning (considering the interests of his country, personally it is probably a different story) nor was he legitimate. Therefore Aliyev managed a significant victory for his country, while Pashinyan threw his people under the bus, it is not so difficult to understand.

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    Post  lyle6 Fri Nov 27, 2020 3:03 pm

    Backman wrote:

    So it wasn't a soldier in the peace keeping effort. But the western media will spare that detail. And then the Russia pseudo experts will say "muh shades of Afghanistan"


    How did the more melanated folk say it? I wish a n*gga would. Had the Russians went full on Afghan mode the Azeri leadership would've been decapitated by paratroopers and Azerbaijan proper occupied. Instead we have this retarded limbo until the Azeris inevitably chimp out when they scrounge up the required minimum of cojones to do so - or are duped by Turkey or even the West.

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    Post  PapaDragon Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:05 pm


    France struggles to retain Karabakh sway after Armenia defeat

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20201127-france-struggles-to-retain-karabakh-sway-after-armenia-defeat

    President Emmanuel Macron faces a major challenge to retain France's influence over resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, needing to take account of the large Armenian minority in his country and accused by Azerbaijan of bias.

    Macron has expressed discomfort over the Russia-brokered ceasefire this month that ended weeks of fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia and allowed Baku to consolidate significant military gains.

    France is, along with Russia and the United States, the co-chair of the Minsk Group of countries that for almost three decades have sought agreement on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-populated region of Azerbaijan which broke away from Baku in a war as the USSR collapsed.

    "We don't consider this ceasefire to be sufficient," Macron said in a meeting with French Armenians at the weekend.

    "It does not solve the political question and all the other issues," he added.

    Macron was a vocal critic of the military offensive launched by Baku in late September to regain control of Karabakh and in particular the backing of NATO member Turkey, which he accused of despatching Syrian jihadists to fight for Azerbaijan.

    He insisted that the resolution of the conflict should not be left to Russia and Turkey -- which has backed the ceasefire and wants its troops deployed in Azerbaijan -- saying it must remain in the hands of the Minsk Group.

    "There is a whole load of issues that cannot just be settled in a purely Turkish-Russian discussion," said Macron.

    - 'Minsk Group dead' -

    But with Yerevan defeated militarily and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan forced to accept the unfavourable terms of the deal overseen by Russian President Vladimir Putin, France is on the receiving end of a backlash.

    While Paris insisted it remained neutral in the conflict, calls have grown for it to surrender its position on the Minsk Group, a deeply unpalatable suggestion as France seeks to bolster its own international profile.

    The situation has not been helped by a purely symbolic resolution passed on Wednesday by France's upper house Senate -- controlled by right-wing opponents of Macron -- recognising Nagorno-Karabakh as independent, a step never taken even by Yerevan.

    "The Minsk Group, as it was created, is dead. Whether we like it or not, Vladimir Putin played a masterful game and the Turks also scored," said Didier Billion, deputy director at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS).

    He told AFP that France now finds itself "out of the game" after "taking up the cause" for Armenia, even though its status as mediator meant it was officially neutral.

    France's Armenian community is around 600,000 strong and also well represented in the higher echelons of politics.

    - 'Reconsider' -

    The French foreign ministry emphasised in a statement that the recognition of Karabakh by the Senate did not reflect French policy.

    But Baku summoned the French ambassador while Azerbaijani MPs adopted a resolution calling for Paris to be expelled from the Minsk Group.

    Some analysts have suggested it would be useful if France bowed out of its role, especially given its dire relations with Azerbaijan's ally Turkey.

    "France should seriously consider renouncing its co-chair position in favour of another European country or an EU-wide position," said Thomas de Waal.

    "It has held the position for 23 years, and a country like Germany or Sweden —- having more balanced relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan -—would almost certainly be able to deliver more."

    For now, France is seeking to use soft power, sending aid to Armenia with a second flight of humanitarian aid due to land on Friday after a first consignment arrived last Sunday.

    Macron will also be hoping that its fellow Minsk Group chair the United States will show more interest in the issue under incoming president Joe Biden than under Donald Trump.

    And analysts agree that while the ceasefire is holding, it has not solved the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh's long term status.

    Describing the deal as a "bitter pill for Armenia", analysts at the International Crisis Group (ICG) said:"Humiliation cannot be a strong basis for sustained peace."

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:05 pm

    That is just so funny. France did f*ck all to help Armenia when the fighting was in progress, but demands to have a seat at the
    table during any ceasefire and potential settlement. Even if Pussynian the EU bootlick invites France to the table does not mean
    that France has any role in the affair.

    Russia made a mistake engaging these bloody hypocrites and blood libelers.



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    Post  Backman Sat Nov 28, 2020 1:40 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    Backman wrote:
    par far wrote:"Turkey Set Up Offices In Afrin, For Turkmen Families To Register For Settling In Nagorno-Karabakh"


    https://southfront.org/turkey-set-up-offices-in-afrin-for-turkmen-families-to-register-for-settling-in-nagorno-karabakh/


    .

    What the fuck do I get to read?

    Alieyv is the dumbest motherfucker of the region. He won the Oil Lottery 30 years ago when the USSR collapsed and his dad grabbed power in AZ.
    This is the person who openly stated:

    -1. It was a counter attack against Armenia following Armenian assault.
    -2. Turkish planes and military was not in AZ.
    -3. Turkish planes and military were in AZ, but only to protect AZ from foreign internvention...
    -4. That Armenia used Smerch against civilians by showing Israeli DPCIM.
    -5. That Armenia violated the CF agreements while his own troops were sending footage of their advance in NK.
    -6. That Armenia was employing mercenaries, in the face of Shoigu, while his Turkish packages were also sending videos from NK.

    This person has an axe to grind with Russia which takes out a fair share of his oil through various instruments and who owns his little shitstain of a country. If he could he would absolutely start a war. The problem is that he cannot. He's as much of a cuck as Pashinyan now.

    I am not shilling for either side in this conflict.

    I am just saying, that there are Armenians in high places in the Russian and western media. They have the upper hand in the media vs Azerbaijan. There is fake news and propaganda coming from both sides. At this point, its not advisable to take some of these claims and face value.

    Is Alieyev stupid enough to settle whabbi terrorists around Nagorno Karabakh ? Azerbaijan is 85% Shi'a for one thing.

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    Post  GarryB Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:20 am

    While this states things that are known, it feels like it is missing three big issues.

    When you reply to such a long post you don't need to repeat it in full... it would be easy enough to at least remove the part in Russian, or just snip the article to an abbreviation... the original post is there so anyone wanting to reread it can, there is no need to repost it in its entirety...

    1. Most of the OSA's in the first week were NOT destroyed by TB's but by Harops.

    I think the point of the article was that while the OSA systems could shoot down drone targets they did not have the effective reach to get some of the types being used, and therefore could not be used to defend without the threat of being sniped from outside their effective range.

    2. The integration of fires (Shilka/Strela10/OSA/TOR/BUK) was simply not there. Shilka which are supposed to be the close range protection for the rest of the SHORAD's was absolutely nowhere to be seen.

    Shilka was never designed for use against drones, and of the systems you mention only TOR and BUK would have the range to be effective in this situation, but the cost of the latter would make its use against drones prohibitively expensive.

    Replacing BUK with Pantsir with a reach of 20km and ceiling of 15km with relatively cheap cost effective missiles for drones firing missiles at standoff ranges together with TOR shooting down those standoff weapons would probably be the best compromise in terms of air defence.

    New developments including reduced size missiles for both systems for use against drones would further make them more effective in the job and cost effective too.

    3. The TB-2 was employed once SHORAD was out of the picture, but it is the intelligence exploitation from air/on the ground (by Turkey).

    The problem was that effectively this was not just the Azeris vs Armenia... this was Turkey and Israel and the Azeris vs the forces in NK, which means rather less resources and manpower than Armenia.

    In such a situation the NK force could still have been effective but would need to be better equipped and trained and prepared for dealing with drones and also camouflage and disguise where traps set up to entice attacks could be used to engage enemy resources more efficiently.

    A fake signal appearing to be an OSA scanning for targets could be used to get the Turks to pass target data to the Azeris to attack something that is completely expendable, but because that attack is expected a defence set up that does not use radar... like the new Pine system for instance to take down as many enemy drones as possible could then be used to take out some of the enemies resources.

    Obviously the timing means they could not have done this this time, but for next time they need to be ready and train to deal with the next war... drones for themselves and realistic counter drone tactics they can use to negate the capacity their enemy has clearly acquired.

    Their drones will get better, but counter tactics and counter weapons will be useful for all sorts of other situations too.

    As mentioned in the article... Pine can come in an anti armour version, which means it becomes an interesting anti armour and anti drone weapon... using a cheap missile they can then buy it in huge numbers... perhaps even request a dual use warhead with proximity fuse and fragmentation for drones and aircraft and a shaped charge and fragmentation for use against armoured vehicles too.

    Learn from it and make it worth something.

    Had the Russians went full on Afghan mode the Azeri leadership would've been decapitated by paratroopers and Azerbaijan proper occupied. Instead we have this retarded limbo until the Azeris inevitably chimp out when they scrounge up the required minimum of cojones to do so - or are duped by Turkey or even the West.

    There is no value to Russia or Armenia to Russian paratroops attacking and regime changing Azerbaijan... the west would love it... whole new round of sanctions and punitive actions to help the poor innocent azeri freedom fighters... but seriously what would Russia get out of it?

    Even Armenia would not benefit... they want territory in NK, but AFAIK they don't want to take the whole region...

    He insisted that the resolution of the conflict should not be left to Russia and Turkey -- which has backed the ceasefire and wants its troops deployed in Azerbaijan -- saying it must remain in the hands of the Minsk Group.

    Woof woof woof... I am important too... I want to play and send my toy soldiers with the big boys.... Woof woof woof...

    Putin to Erdogan... do you hear dogs barking... no.

    That is just so funny. France did f*ck all to help Armenia when the fighting was in progress, but demands to have a seat at the
    table during any ceasefire and potential settlement. Even if Pussynian the EU bootlick invites France to the table does not mean
    that France has any role in the affair.

    Indeed, France seems more worried about France than Armenia or Azerbaijan or peace....

    Is Alieyev stupid enough to settle whabbi terrorists around Nagorno Karabakh ? Azerbaijan is 85% Shi'a for one thing.

    Very good question... and ironic because the main reason Turkey would want to resettle these guys in NK is because they want them further away from their border than Idlib... it seems no one wants these nutters for neighbours.... attack
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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:17 am

    LMFS wrote:Since when is geopolitics a matter for vapid morality discussions? A good state policy must contain elements of legitimacy to be sustainable, that's all. Aliyev may be cunning but he was legitimated to do what he did, Pashinyan was neither cunning (considering the interests of his country, personally it is probably a different story) nor was he legitimate. Therefore Aliyev managed a significant victory for his country, while Pashinyan threw his people under the bus, it is not so difficult to understand.

    Aliyev managed to fuck up a perfect situation by allowibg what his rather, despite losing the war, never allowed. Russians in AZ. This is how cunning this man is.

    However the question was. Is this man, smart enough to avoid steps like those aforementionned? Absolutely not. Right now he is trying to figure out a way to contain his own population within the next few years, once they realise the Shuravi are not going away.
    Ironically, it is the other cuck that is going to benefit from this in short term and Armenia in long term.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:27 am

    Aliev probably secretly welcomes the Russian presence since it prevents Erdogan from turning his nation into a Turkish province.

    Azerbaijani Leader Vows to Revive Region Ceded by Armenia
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #3 - Page 7 Mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdgxhtav2e25a8.cloudfront.net%2Fblkbullet1 Baku to Probe Alleged War Crimes by Both Azerbaijan, Armenia
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #3 - Page 7 Mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdgxhtav2e25a8.cloudfront.net%2Fblkbullet1 Azeris Call for France to Lose Nagorno-Karabakh Mediation Role
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    Post  Backman Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:21 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:
    LMFS wrote:S.

    Aliyev managed to fuck up a perfect situation by allowibg what his rather, despite losing the war, never allowed. Russians in AZ. This is how cunning this man is.

    However the question was. Is this man, smart enough to avoid steps like those aforementionned? Absolutely not. Right now he is trying to figure out a way to contain his own population within the next few years, once they realise  the Shuravi are not going away.
    Ironically, it is the other cuck that is going to benefit from this in short term and Armenia in long term.

    I disagree. He got the territories back. How else was he supposed to hold the gains ? If it was Armenians and Azeris facing each other, the war would never end. It would just be a bloodbath. He needed a 3rd party to come in and stand between the 2. What was he supposed to do ? Call the UN ? Turkish troops wouldn't have worked. lol1 French troops ? Nah. It was just a natural for Russian troops to do the peace keeping.

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    Post  LMFS Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:34 am

    KoTeMoRe wrote:Aliyev managed to fuck up a perfect situation by allowibg what his rather, despite losing the war, never allowed. Russians in AZ. This is how cunning this man is.

    However the question was. Is this man, smart enough to avoid steps like those aforementionned? Absolutely not. Right now he is trying to figure out a way to contain his own population within the next few years, once they realise  the Shuravi are not going away.
    Ironically, it is the other cuck that is going to benefit from this in short term and Armenia in long term.

    That is some convolute twisting of facts, very much the commie way. In the real world, Russians are just in a limited amount of territories of NK, AZ recovered most of their occupied lands and access to Nakhchivan so they celebrate victory. Armenia got screwed badly and it has taken US help to prevent Pashinyan getting screwed too. Seriously guys, wake up. It is better losing ideology than sanity...
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Nov 28, 2020 11:46 am

    Magomedov Mukhtar
    @Mukhtarr_MD
    ·
    45m
    Azerbaijani 120 mm 2S31 Vena amphibious self-propelled mortar system was seen in Karabakh.
    AZ has purchased 18 mortar systems from Russia.
    The 2S31 Vena is based on the BMP-3 platform.



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    Post  Hole Sat Nov 28, 2020 1:05 pm

    The missile of the Osa-AKM has a range of 10km, it could shoot down most of the drones used in the conflict. The Shilka could be used against loitering munitions, but for these both systems need input from external sources = radars. The NK forces had no IADS, just single radar systems and single AD systems with some guys trying to deliver information between them with the help of old radio sets. The "I" ist the most important part of IADS.
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    Post  kvs Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:49 pm

    Hole wrote:The missile of the Osa-AKM has a range of 10km, it could shoot down most of the drones used in the conflict. The Shilka could be used against loitering munitions, but for these both systems need input from external sources = radars. The NK forces had no IADS, just single radar systems and single AD systems with some guys trying to deliver information between them with the help of old radio sets. The "I" ist the most important part of IADS.

    Which reveals a serious weakness in these systems. It is nice if all the pieces are in place, but in the real world you will not have them
    all in place for all sorts of reasons. This applies to Russia and not just to NK defenders. So integrating "radars" into such systems
    would be smarter. The integration would be deeper and to reduce exposure these radars could be turned off if all the components in
    the larger system are available.
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    Post  kvs Sat Nov 28, 2020 4:53 pm

    LMFS wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Aliyev managed to fuck up a perfect situation by allowibg what his rather, despite losing the war, never allowed. Russians in AZ. This is how cunning this man is.

    However the question was. Is this man, smart enough to avoid steps like those aforementionned? Absolutely not. Right now he is trying to figure out a way to contain his own population within the next few years, once they realise  the Shuravi are not going away.
    Ironically, it is the other cuck that is going to benefit from this in short term and Armenia in long term.

    That is some convolute twisting of facts, very much the commie way. In the real world, Russians are just in a limited amount of territories of NK, AZ recovered most of their occupied lands and access to Nakhchivan so they celebrate victory. Armenia got screwed badly and it has taken US help to prevent Pashinyan getting screwed too. Seriously guys, wake up. It is better losing ideology than sanity...

    The yanquis had a win-win situation. If Russia intervened then it would have taken their bait. If not, they can leverage Russia
    "pulling a gangster move" to consolidate their quisling regime in Armenia. For Armenia it is of course a pure loss on a levels.

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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Nov 28, 2020 5:23 pm

    LMFS wrote:
    KoTeMoRe wrote:Aliyev managed to fuck up a perfect situation by allowibg what his rather, despite losing the war, never allowed. Russians in AZ. This is how cunning this man is.

    However the question was. Is this man, smart enough to avoid steps like those aforementionned? Absolutely not. Right now he is trying to figure out a way to contain his own population within the next few years, once they realise  the Shuravi are not going away.
    Ironically, it is the other cuck that is going to benefit from this in short term and Armenia in long term.

    That is some convolute twisting of facts, very much the commie way. In the real world, Russians are just in a limited amount of territories of NK, AZ recovered most of their occupied lands and access to Nakhchivan so they celebrate victory. Armenia got screwed badly and it has taken US help to prevent Pashinyan getting screwed too. Seriously guys, wake up. It is better losing ideology than sanity...

    Hilarous shit.

    This is why I keep being appalled when I see some comments in here.

    First of all current situation. 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #3 - Page 7 Mapkar10
    As you can see for yourself, whoever stopped the war, did it with a specific plan.
    The core control of the former NK Oblast is firmly within ARM/RUS hands. There is no way to reach Shusha through Laçin which is also in Armenian hands.
    Kelbajar and at least 5 AZ districts were always going to go back to AZ if there was to be an agreement :

    Madrid Principles wrote:The background for Putin’s recent proposal is a draft framework agreement tabled by the US, Russian, and French co-chairs of the OSCE’s Minsk Group in 2007. Known as the Madrid Document, it proposes the following package of elements as the framework for a political settlement:

    Armenia returns all seven territories it seized from Azerbaijan during their war in the early 1990s;
    Nagorno-Karabakh receives an “interim legal status,” which preserves the current political and economic realities governing the region’s Armenian residents until determination of the region’s “final legal status”;
    Nagorno-Karabakh’s “final legal status” will be determined by a vote of Nagorno-Karabakh’s population at a time still to be decided;
    A transit corridor will be established to link Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia;
    International peacekeepers will provide security to residents of Nagorno-Karabakh and villages along the line of contact; and
    Azerbaijan lifts all transit restrictions between Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the rest of Azerbaijan.
    These principles resulted from several years of negotiations among the presidents and foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Though this framework was never formally agreed upon, in January 2009, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsian did express optimism that they could eventually be accepted in principle.

    In late 2009, however, Sargsian walked back his position and accepted in principle the return of only five territories to Azerbaijan. This dispute over the return of five versus seven territories has been the core obstacle to progress in Minsk Group negotiations ever since.

    On June 20, Putin proposed a way to break this impasse during a meeting with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts. Putin apparently suggested moving incrementally forward, with Armenia returning just two territories in exchange for Azerbaijan resuming normal transit and economic connections to Armenia; all other aspects of the Madrid Principles, including the remaining five occupied territories, would be subject to further negotiations.

    Both sides had rejected parts of the agreement. ARM the 7/7 return and AZ the Peacekeepers and the legal status of the ARM population in AZ.

    Finally the AZ "corridor" to Nankhchevan was always part of the settlement given that there's only one axis of travel between them. Agarak/Meghri Soviet railway.

    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #3 - Page 7 Mapkar10
    2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war #3 - Page 7 Map-co10

    FFW: 2020 Pash sayd Artsakh is Armenia. Aliyev says he'll liberate 100% of Azerbaijan.

    We're the 28th of November and the situation is this.

    Russians occupy as PK forces 65% of the NKO, they are there for 5 years; however the ARM cuck hints (and this with RU approval) that he doesn't exclude a longer PK tenure from Russia

    Pash wrote:"True, five years may be enough to create guarantees of security and stability in the region. But the Karabakh conflict is a prolonged one, so I do not believe that the presence of Russian peacekeepers will be confined to one five-year period," Pashinyan told TASS in an interview.

    There's no "commie" BS here. Only facts. Facts are that Aliyev accepted all what his dad and himself rejected for 35% of NKO. Arm with this shit lost a large buffer zone, but also checked that Russian protection check. Any attempt to take the rest of NKO by force from AZ or Turkey will become a regional war with a reverse result to this one, only with far more destruction.

    The only mess is the current TSK deployment in AZ, but this is nothing too bad, unlike Russian forces in Syria, Turkey cannot reach Azerbaijan without getting pancaked in the process.
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    Post  Isos Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:13 pm

    Hole wrote:The missile of the Osa-AKM has a range of 10km, it could shoot down most of the drones used in the conflict. The Shilka could be used against loitering munitions, but for these both systems need input from external sources = radars. The NK forces had no IADS, just single radar systems and single AD systems with some guys trying to deliver information between them with the help of old radio sets. The "I" ist the most important part of IADS.

    They had p-18 radars. Their IADS sucks sure but even with better weapons thry woukd have been defeated because they still don't have enough of them.

    Azeri would have gone for less protected targets degrading their IADS slowly and making it less and less efective. And at the end they would have destroyed it.

    But also they don't have weapons to attack the azeri on their lands. Defensive weapons will always loose against attacking weapons. They should have bought some 24 mig-29SMT with another 24 su-24 with weapons like anti radar missiles kh-25P and laser guided kh-25.

    Using even 5 kh-25P and 20 r-77/73 would have been better than the use of half of the total grad and smerch rockets used during the war. They invest in the wrong weaponery.

    The kh-25P would have destroyed azeri small AD. The r-73/77 would have destroyed azeri TB2 that coordinated the azeri forces and their su-25 or mig-29s. Then azeri would have been facing su-24 with a weak AD/air force and they would have had no drones to track what's going on.

    The grad and smeŕch fell mostly on open touching nothing or no one.


    Last edited by Isos on Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  LMFS Sat Nov 28, 2020 6:18 pm

    kvs wrote:The yanquis had a win-win situation.   If Russia intervened then it would have taken their bait.   If not, they can leverage Russia
    "pulling a gangster move" to consolidate their quisling regime in Armenia.   For Armenia it is of course a pure loss on a levels.

    The only problem being that the "gangster move" narrative is some serious BS and everybody without an ideological obfuscation can see it.

    kotemore wrote:As you can see for yourself, whoever stopped the war, did it with a specific plan.

    What, are you saying Russians had a plan and that furthermore this plan was beneficial to them? But that is a gangster move...

    There's no "commie" BS here. Only facts. Facts are that Aliyev accepted all what his dad and himself rejected for 35% of NKO. Arm with this shit lost a large buffer zone, but also checked that Russian protection check. Any attempt to take the rest of NKO by force from AZ or Turkey will become a regional war with a reverse result to this one, only with far more destruction.

    The only mess is the current TSK deployment in AZ, but this is nothing too bad, unlike Russian forces in Syria, Turkey cannot reach Azerbaijan without getting pancaked in the process.

    Aliyev was smart enough to settle for a partial victory instead of being too ambitious and failing to consolidate the gains made, obviously none of us was sitting at the negotiations to know what the options offered were. In general, not bad for Russia, thanks for the summary. It is healthy that you acknowledge this after so much bitching about their incompetence, treason and imminent doom.You were wrong all along and now you keep bitching, only under other different pretexts, but you are still wrong in my opinion.

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    Post  PapaDragon Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:01 pm

    LMFS wrote:...
    kotemore wrote:As you can see for yourself, whoever stopped the war, did it with a specific plan.

    What, are you saying Russians had a plan and that furthermore this plan was beneficial to them? But that is a gangster move...

    And also a winning move which got them maximum payoff for minimum investment

    Nicely done thumbsup

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    Post  KoTeMoRe Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:06 pm

    LMFS wrote:
    kvs wrote:The yanquis had a win-win situation.   If Russia intervened then it would have taken their bait.   If not, they can leverage Russia
    "pulling a gangster move" to consolidate their quisling regime in Armenia.   For Armenia it is of course a pure loss on a levels.

    The only problem being that the "gangster move" narrative is some serious BS and everybody without an ideological obfuscation can see it.

    kotemore wrote:As you can see for yourself, whoever stopped the war, did it with a specific plan.

    What, are you saying Russians had a plan and that furthermore this plan was beneficial to them? But that is a gangster move...

    There's no "commie" BS here. Only facts. Facts are that Aliyev accepted all what his dad and himself rejected for 35% of NKO. Arm with this shit lost a large buffer zone, but also checked that Russian protection check. Any attempt to take the rest of NKO by force from AZ or Turkey will become a regional war with a reverse result to this one, only with far more destruction.

    The only mess is the current TSK deployment in AZ, but this is nothing too bad, unlike Russian forces in Syria, Turkey cannot reach Azerbaijan without getting pancaked in the process.

    Aliyev was smart enough to settle for a partial victory instead of being too ambitious and failing to consolidate the gains made, obviously none of us was sitting at the negotiations to know what the options offered were. In general, not bad for Russia, thanks for the summary. It is healthy that you acknowledge this after so much bitching about their incompetence, treason and imminent doom.You were wrong all along and now you keep bitching, only under other different pretexts, but you are still wrong in my opinion.

    Why is that a BS narrative. On one hand I hear from the resident Super-Bogatyrs that Russia doesn't owe anything to Armenia, this all what Russia does is a business move and cynical at that.
    On the other you accuse people, pointing out that Russian intervention in this war is to sustain its hegemon position in the Caucasus, as ideological obfuscation, while everyone understands that is has nothing to do with idelogical obfuscation, rather pure cold interest.

    I said, from day 1 of the conflict that Russia would intervene at some point, but not before punishing Pash. The problem is that the punishment went beyond what Pash can endure as a leader. This is why the damn Russian MTO was 50% faster to deploy troops in NK than deploy troops in its own maneuvers. It took exactly 4 days to prepare, ferry and deploy two battalions. This is American level speed. And the troops you see in NK weren't fresh from an EXO like the 31st VDV. They were called in and flown in NK.

    This level of quasi schizophrenic attitude, denotes that Russia's gambit was to get back to AZ without AZ tutelage but as part of an interposition force. This clearly underlines that Russian ambitions weren't only to help Armenia (quite the contrary) but to contain and return the favor of Turkey occupying territory of an ally/client state like Syria. Now the whole situation is almost mirrored. The Partial victory in Syria is mirrored by the Turkish and Azeri partial victory in NK. I do not think that Russia was expecting to have so little in NKO to work with. The loss of the Iranian border from the NKO (bar a small pocket) is probably what RU military is looking at right now.

    However, unlike the SNL in Syria, the NK Armenians are into a process of legitimation. This was underlined with the direct responsibility taken by the Russian forces within NKO. Turkey on the other hand, is only a buffer force mingled with Al Qaeda, Al Qaeda light and Daish in Idlibistan.

    I never said Russia was incompetent, I said they needed to intervene earlier so as the positions, which were refused by both sides could be saved without further bloodshed and baboon screeches from the usual suspects. Russia lost a chance halt Turkey in its way in. Russians know this and understand that they had no tripwire to enter the fray. Now they have it.

    Lastly; as I said, Aliyev has 5 years to do 3 things.

    1. Stay in the good graces of Russia with regards to the NKO final status (Russia will probably render anything else but quasi independence moot) as within 5 years VVP might be gone and the military wing of the Russian admin vomits Aliyev and Pashinyan. But HATES Turkey over both which makes Aliyev contender for the tie-eating record.
    2. Prepare for another type of war, possibly pulling Western powers in the fray in order to hurt Russia non-militarily, something he had already partially done with its protection money to BP and ENI.
    3. Bring as much civilians to the recently returned areas as possible in order to both hinder a potential Armenian come-back (beyond those 5 years) by creating an infrastructure for deployed troops (something Armenia failed to do which IMO cost them a lot) and pose a fare grayer deal in case the next war turns out negative for AZ. Basically what Armenia couldn't do now, despite massive (proportionally) flight from NKO.

    He has to do that to make forget that the initiative is gone from his hands and is utterly between Turkey an Russia.

    There are other issues for Aliyev albeit unrelated directly and strategically advantages for Pash or his successor.

    a. The infatuation of Turkey with "Crimea" and the open support it lends to Ukraine.
    b. The tactical issues of a Caucasus, Black Sea shift, ergo another Georgian run for Abkhazia and Ossetia or simply transit of "goods" through Georgian Airspace.
    c. The role AZ will be playing in the Iranian situation. For instance if yet another trace of transit between Iran and Azerbaijan is found for the Mossad team that killed Fakhrizadeh like in the past, Azeris might have to deal with a lot more shit than they did until now.

    So Aliyev at the end bungled a perfect plan by not accepting a more conciliatory tone and probably got the most out of the military option.
    Now he lost that card for a while and will have to focus on not losing anything domestically while attempting not to give to much to Russia on the NKO status.

    Seeing how Armenia just rolled over and let Russia deal with the NKO issue, Alieyv reached the limit of his wager. Now he'll have to fold or be folded.



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    Post  Hole Sat Nov 28, 2020 8:38 pm

    "American level speed" Laughing Laughing Laughing
    The americans would love to be that fast in deploying troops. It had took them at least a month to bring 100 guys in, without heavy equipment like Humvees.

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    Post  Hole Sat Nov 28, 2020 8:44 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Hole wrote:The missile of the Osa-AKM has a range of 10km, it could shoot down most of the drones used in the conflict. The Shilka could be used against loitering munitions, but for these both systems need input from external sources = radars. The NK forces had no IADS, just single radar systems and single AD systems with some guys trying to deliver information between them with the help of old radio sets. The "I" ist the most important part of IADS.

    Which reveals a serious weakness in these systems.   It is nice if all the pieces are in place, but in the real world you will not have them
    all in place for all sorts of reasons.   This applies to Russia and not just to NK defenders.   So integrating "radars" into such systems
    would be smarter.   The integration would be deeper and to reduce exposure these radars could be turned off if all the components in
    the larger system are available.  

    All these systems have radars (except the Strela-10). But you can´t integrate a Nebo-M radar on a tiny tracked vehicle. Therefore you need modern command systems to transmit the data collected from different sources (radars, elint and so on) from all around the battle area to the right defence system instantly. That is the advantage of the russian air defence network. There are so many different systems in place that that the whole thing wouldn´t break down even if some of them are destroyed.
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    Post  kvs Sat Nov 28, 2020 8:51 pm

    Hole wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Hole wrote:The missile of the Osa-AKM has a range of 10km, it could shoot down most of the drones used in the conflict. The Shilka could be used against loitering munitions, but for these both systems need input from external sources = radars. The NK forces had no IADS, just single radar systems and single AD systems with some guys trying to deliver information between them with the help of old radio sets. The "I" ist the most important part of IADS.

    Which reveals a serious weakness in these systems.   It is nice if all the pieces are in place, but in the real world you will not have them
    all in place for all sorts of reasons.   This applies to Russia and not just to NK defenders.   So integrating "radars" into such systems
    would be smarter.   The integration would be deeper and to reduce exposure these radars could be turned off if all the components in
    the larger system are available.  

    All these systems have radars (except the Strela-10). But you can´t integrate a Nebo-M radar on a tiny tracked vehicle. Therefore you need modern command systems to transmit the data collected from different sources (radars, elint and so on) from all around the battle area to the right defence system instantly. That is the advantage of the russian air defence network. There are so many different systems in place that that the whole thing wouldn´t break down even if some of them are destroyed.

    Yes, but it is clear that the NK defenders did not have the critical pieces. This is a weakness. Any bottleneck slows a process down no matter
    how fast the other pieces are. In this case the detection integration should be at the lowest level. And they can do better with AD systems
    with "radars". Just how primitive and massive do they need to be to detect drones. There is no excuse for this sort of design. Requiring
    the full network to be operational to be useful guarantees failure. The network has to function as various nodes are destroyed.


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