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    US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

    Isos
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    Post  Isos Mon Nov 23, 2020 11:13 pm

    There are rumours that Saudi will let Israel use their airspace to hit iranian nuks production before the end of the year to take advantage of Trump admistration before Biden comes in and forbid them to do so.

    It should happen in december if it happens
    crod
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    Post  crod Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:51 am

    Isos wrote:There are rumours that Saudi will let Israel use their airspace to hit iranian nuks production before the end of the year to take advantage of Trump admistration before Biden comes in and forbid them to do so.

    It should happen in december if it happens  

    perhaps that is what the secret meeting over the weekend was about.
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:04 am

    crod wrote:
    Isos wrote:There are rumours that Saudi will let Israel use their airspace to hit iranian nuks production before the end of the year to take advantage of Trump admistration before Biden comes in and forbid them to do so.

    It should happen in december if it happens  

    perhaps that is what the secret meeting over the weekend was about.

    How many US troops are pulled out of the ME as well as the location of the carrier task force (not in the Gulf atm) could be a pointer. Would set up Saudi as an easy revenge target but, regardless of what they tell the Saudis in advance, the US and Israelis wouldn't care about that.

    They have until Jan 21st when the new US regime starts.
    crod
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    Post  crod Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:38 am

    JohninMK wrote:
    crod wrote:
    Isos wrote:There are rumours that Saudi will let Israel use their airspace to hit iranian nuks production before the end of the year to take advantage of Trump admistration before Biden comes in and forbid them to do so.

    It should happen in december if it happens  

    perhaps that is what the secret meeting over the weekend was about.

    How many US troops are pulled out of the ME as well as the location of the carrier task force (not in the Gulf atm) could be a pointer. Would set up Saudi as an easy revenge target but, regardless of what they tell the Saudis in advance, the US and Israelis wouldn't care about that.

    They have until Jan 21st when the new US regime starts.

    i would have thought it was exactly the plan...2 birds with one stone and all that...but you'd have to think common sense will prevail here and no attack will take place. isreal wouldn't exactly walk away unhurt either.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:37 am

    i would have thought it was exactly the plan...2 birds with one stone and all that...but you'd have to think common sense will prevail here and no attack will take place. isreal wouldn't exactly walk away unhurt either.

    Quite the opposite actually.

    Israel will have no other chance to attack iran but now with arab states being for that and letting them pass.

    Trump is OK with that. The fiasco in US in january will cover the attack.

    Israel already attack such nuclear installations in Syria and Iraq.

    The sooner the better for israel because Iran keeps getting better and better weapons as time flies. Today they still don't have enough weapons to be a real threat (only hezbollah on the north gas some rockets but they could attack them in the same time as Iran to destroy their stocks).

    Iran embargo on weapons is finished and they will get better AD systems to protect their nuclear reactors in the future making it harder for an israeli attack to succeed.

    starman
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    Post  starman Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:30 am

    crod wrote:
    perhaps that is what the secret meeting over the weekend was about.

    Or maybe Pompeo and Bibi were just trying to talk MBS into accepting "normalization." I don't think Israel needs KSA airspace to strike at Iran.
    crod
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    Post  crod Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:59 am

    starman wrote:
    crod wrote:
    perhaps that is what the secret meeting over the weekend was about.

    Or maybe Pompeo and Bibi were just trying to talk MBS into accepting "normalization."  I don't think Israel needs KSA airspace to strike at Iran.

    Quite possible. The ksa have agreed for others to do so, hypocritical of them not to do so. The king is still in the way though...he’s a bit more Palestinian cause friendly than the prince.
    crod
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    Post  crod Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:04 pm

    Isos wrote:
    i would have thought it was exactly the plan...2 birds with one stone and all that...but you'd have to think common sense will prevail here and no attack will take place. isreal wouldn't exactly walk away unhurt either.

    Quite the opposite actually.

    Israel will have no other chance to attack iran but now with arab states being for that and letting them pass.

    Trump is OK with that. The fiasco in US in january will cover the attack.

    Israel already attack such nuclear installations in Syria and Iraq.

    The sooner the better for israel because Iran keeps getting better and better weapons as time flies. Today they still don't have enough weapons to be a real threat (only hezbollah on the north gas some rockets but they could attack them in the same time as Iran to destroy their stocks).

    Iran embargo on weapons is finished and they will get better AD systems to protect their nuclear reactors in the future making it harder for an israeli attack to succeed.


    I just don’t see it and Iran has missiles that can hit israel. I take your points on timing etc.
    But it’s way too risky for israel. Iran cannot and will not just allow it to happen and not respond imo. The potential to set the entire ME on fire from such action is very real. I’d be surprised. Very surprised.

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:56 pm

    It's risky and Iran will respond.

    But the more they wait, the bigger response will be.

    IMO we could see an attempt that will porbably fail. Russia will provide data concerning the attack with its radar in Syria and in south Russia. Iran will be ready and will intercept israeli planes.
    starman
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    Post  starman Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:13 pm

    Isos wrote:It's risky and Iran will respond.

    But the more they wait, the bigger response will be.

    Isn't it possible Iran will return to the terms of the JCPOA if Biden undoes what Trump did?

    IMO we could see an attempt that will porbably fail. Russia will provide data concerning the attack with its radar in Syria and in south Russia. Iran will be ready and will intercept israeli planes.


    I don't know about that, but an attack on Iran could mean war with hez too, and have economic repercussions if, for example, Iran holds KSA responsible. A clash in the gulf could send oil prices through the roof...


    Isos
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    Post  Isos Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:57 pm

    That's what Trump Netanyahou fear. Iran going back to the deal.

    That's why they will try to hit before it happens. That's why Trump is making all sort if sanctions to complicate the work for Biden to reach a peace agreement with Iran.

    Hezbollah isn't a threat for israel. Only their rockets are a dnger but israel has probably all the intel' to hit them the first hour before they can use them. Then they will just send the army at the border and keep hezbollah away untill it calms down.

    The political crisis in Lebanon is also playing against hezbollah.
    RTN
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    Post  RTN Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:08 pm

    If U.S and Israel decides to strike Iran later this year Russia won't be able to save Iran. Period.

    Most of these militia groups in Israel like Hamas and Hezbollah were all created by Israeli and British intelligence. IOW, these groups are run by Israel not by any Arab state.
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    Post  PapaDragon Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:53 pm

    RTN wrote:If U.S and Israel decides to strike Iran later this year Russia won't be able to save Iran. Period....

    Iran should be saving itself

    They have been bragging about it for decades and they supposedly know that something is coming

    Time to put their money where their mouth is

    crod
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    Post  crod Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:16 pm

    RTN wrote:If U.S and Israel decides to strike Iran later this year Russia won't be able to save Iran. Period.

    Most of these militia groups in Israel like Hamas and Hezbollah were all created by Israeli and British intelligence. IOW, these groups are run by Israel not by  any Arab state.

    I’m not convinced anything is coming...the US command will not allow Trump/Pompeo to do this. Isreal ain’t doing this on its own, let’s be realistic here.

    Also, those militia groups aren’t in isreal.

    Isos
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    Post  Isos Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:34 pm

    RTN wrote:If U.S and Israel decides to strike Iran later this year Russia won't be able to save Iran. Period.

    Most of these militia groups in Israel like Hamas and Hezbollah were all created by Israeli and British intelligence. IOW, these groups are run by Israel not by  any Arab state.

    US won't. Israel can just launch one attack. Russia will provide any early warning it can. But it won't fight for them.


    Hamas is barely a militia. They can't import anything to attack israel. Total blockade.

    Hezbollah is more powerfull but not enough to attack israel.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski Wed Nov 25, 2020 5:33 pm

    No need for Biden to strike Iran. Just make a few minor concessions to Iranian Liberals, visa free travel, favourable trade terms to benefit the few. Some imports of Persian carpets and pistachio nuts and lifting of a couple of sanctions. Photo opportunity  for Iranian politicians to take selfies and show the power of diplomacy !  Then they will pour more concrete into nuclear plant and hand over the stockpile of 5% Uranium and scrap Iran sattelite launching  and  Missile tech. Trump was much better for Iran, in the long run. He destroyed the Iranian-American lover's dreams. QED.
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    Post  par far Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:35 pm

    nomadski wrote:No need for Biden to strike Iran. Just make a few minor concessions to Iranian Liberals, visa free travel, favourable trade terms to benefit the few. Some imports of Persian carpets and pistachio nuts and lifting of a couple of sanctions. Photo opportunity  for Iranian politicians to take selfies and show the power of diplomacy !  Then they will pour more concrete into nuclear plant and hand over the stockpile of 5% Uranium and  scrap Iran sattelite launching  and  Missile tech. Trump was much better for Iran, in the long run. He destroyed the Iranian-American lover's dreams. QED.



    If that was this easy, than it would have been done. There is a reason Israel is singing all those agreements with the Arabs(this relationship is just in the open but Arab countries are vassals of US and Israel), Israel knows that Russia and China are going to start cooperation with Iran and there is nothing they can do with the sanctions.


    Last edited by par far on Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  par far Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:43 pm

    Isos wrote:
    i would have thought it was exactly the plan...2 birds with one stone and all that...but you'd have to think common sense will prevail here and no attack will take place. isreal wouldn't exactly walk away unhurt either.

    Quite the opposite actually.

    Israel will have no other chance to attack iran but now with arab states being for that and letting them pass.

    Trump is OK with that. The fiasco in US in january will cover the attack.

    Israel already attack such nuclear installations in Syria and Iraq.

    The sooner the better for israel because Iran keeps getting better and better weapons as time flies. Today they still don't have enough weapons to be a real threat (only hezbollah on the north gas some rockets but they could attack them in the same time as Iran to destroy their stocks).

    Iran embargo on weapons is finished and they will get better AD systems to protect their nuclear reactors in the future making it harder for an israeli attack to succeed.



    Iran is not Syria or Iraq though, they have air defenses and capability to strike back. The best time to attack Iran was between 2001-2010, it was a time when there was Russia and Russia were not as powerful and the US vassals would have went along with it.
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    Post  par far Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:46 pm

    RTN wrote:If U.S and Israel decides to strike Iran later this year Russia won't be able to save Iran. Period.

    Most of these militia groups in Israel like Hamas and Hezbollah were all created by Israeli and British intelligence. IOW, these groups are run by Israel not by  any Arab state.


    I don't think Iran will need Russia's help, Russia will provide Iran with data. The countries know the capabilities of each other and what kind of support they will get.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:52 pm

    Iran is not Syria or Iraq though, they have air defenses and capability to strike back. The best time to attack Iran was between 2001-2010, it was a time when there was Russia and Russia were not as powerful and the US vassals would have went along with it.

    I doubt Russia gibes a fuck about Iran being attack by Israel. It won't be an invasion but an attack on iranian nuclear program.

    Russia would welcome such move. Iran will depend evev more on them.

    Iranian air defence proved to be shitty when they downed a civilian aircraft. Good weapons with tors and S-300 but lack of training and not perfect IADS.

    BTW it's China who signed a military deal with Iran few months ago for oil. Not Russia. If they want Russian help they better buy very fast some 48 su-35 and a couple of S-400.
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    Post  par far Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:53 pm

    crod wrote:
    RTN wrote:If U.S and Israel decides to strike Iran later this year Russia won't be able to save Iran. Period.

    Most of these militia groups in Israel like Hamas and Hezbollah were all created by Israeli and British intelligence. IOW, these groups are run by Israel not by  any Arab state.

    I’m not convinced anything is coming...the US command will not allow Trump/Pompeo to do this. Isreal ain’t doing this on its own, let’s be realistic here.

    Also, those militia groups aren’t in isreal.  



    This is what I think as well, when Trump wanted the military parade, he could not convivence the military to send anything good, just old tanks. How is he going to convivence them to start a major war?

    That meeting was most likely because Jews in Israel and the Crypto Jewish leaders in Saudi crap land are not aware what Biden will do.
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    Post  par far Wed Nov 25, 2020 6:59 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Iran is not Syria or Iraq though, they have air defenses and capability to strike back. The best time to attack Iran was between 2001-2010, it was a time when there was Russia and Russia were not as powerful and the US vassals would have went along with it.

    I doubt Russia gibes a fuck about Iran being attack by Israel. It won't be an invasion but an attack on iranian nuclear program.

    Russia would welcome such move. Iran will depend evev more on them.

    Iranian air defence proved to be shitty when they downed a civilian aircraft. Good weapons with tors and S-300 but lack of training and not perfect IADS.

    BTW it's China who signed a military deal with Iran few months ago for oil. Not Russia. If they want Russian help they better buy very fast some 48 su-35 and a couple of S-400.


    Iran is already dependent on Russia and I don't think that Russia wants more conflicts close to its borders. Russia probably/may have early warning systems that cover some Iranian airspace, so they might get advance warning.

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    Post  GarryB Thu Nov 26, 2020 5:31 am

    Iranian air defence proved to be shitty when they downed a civilian aircraft. Good weapons with tors and S-300 but lack of training and not perfect IADS.

    I think you are reading that wrong... in times of tension mistakes can be made... and air defence system that shoots down the wrong plane is not shitty... or are you suggesting AEGIS cruisers are shitty for shooting down an Iranian Airbus in the 1980s?

    The definition of a shitty air defence is one that does not shoot down anything because it does not know it is under attack... like the air defence of Saudi Arabia... which uses western air defence equipment mostly.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:15 am

    GarryB wrote:
    Iranian air defence proved to be shitty when they downed a civilian aircraft. Good weapons with tors and S-300 but lack of training and not perfect IADS.

    I think you are reading that wrong... in times of tension mistakes can be made... and air defence system that shoots down the wrong plane is not shitty... or are you suggesting AEGIS cruisers are shitty for shooting down an Iranian Airbus in the 1980s?

    The definition of a shitty air defence is one that does not shoot down anything because it does not know it is under attack... like the air defence of Saudi Arabia... which uses western air defence equipment mostly.

    Shooting down civilian airplanes for an air defence is a proof to be good and is better than shooting down nothing ?

    Good to know.

    Detecting fake targets that are huge civilian planes and confusing it for a small fighter or a cruise missiles is worse than not detecting very small target flying at very low altitude and programed to follow a path with minimum risk of detection.

    Note: I don't say the tor and their radars were bad. But their AD in general is bad.
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:10 am

    I trust Iran militarily to handle itself. Their radar, while a mixture of old and new, had no issue detecting an RQ-170 which is much more stealthy than a F-35. Add to that, they hacked it and landed it in Iran.

    I would say they may have this more or less handled. Iran does produce its own AD systems so we will see as well.

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