There are no capable proxies on the Iranian border for the US to collaborate with. To realistically change anything with Iran we need the strategic and politically most important zones, which means Tehran, the political center of the Iranian Revolution. Tehran is far north, before reaching it, Bandar-e Abbas, Bushehr, Shiraz, Hamadan, and many other villages and cities lie between it. Realistically a force of over 100,000 will be needed with air support, artillery, ew weapons, advanced C2, and many assets. We have no way of assembling such a force. 1 carrier hardly provides for these solutions, the strike aspects might be covered, but with 0 boots on the ground, nothing will change in Tehran.
If we look at recent order of battles for major battles of last decade, at least 10 divisional sized units would need to be on the ground each of 10,000 troops. At battles of Gori, Tshkinvali, Ilovaisk, Debaltseve, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo, Palmyra, and so forth, 10,000-20,000 troops were needed for city wide fighting. This is about 2-4 reinforced brigades per city and village sometimes less, and all of the supporting assets which make these brigades effective.
IRGC is not Saddams republican guard or some rag tag militia, this fighting force will be fighting for every inch of urban and desert environment. In Fallujah Americans needed 20,000 to storm the city. Iran is a different beast, the Caspian sea provides strategic depth, as does its eastern Afghan border. Iran can also manage attacks on US bases outside of Iran.
To attack , we need a committed force which we do not have. Balochistanis are hardly controllable even by ISI, they are rogues. $ means nothing, we have tried paying them for years. They are hardcore islamists. In Iraq, the PMU is largely an Iranian invention. To the north, there is Russia, hardly an entry point.
There are no viable proxies, Saudis and UAE are gassed and bogged down. Kurds number very little to meaningfully force Tehran to surrender and make concessions. Israel will not fight for us. They have shown we are their proxies and they will fight Iran to the last American. Unfortunately, there is just no way to amass such a force again. Iran is safe from serious attacks, some pestering strikes will not change anything and will only make the situation worse for US forces in MENA region.
But overall it is just same old barking and cracked teeth for biting