US-Iran standoff 2019-

I open this new thread because it seems situation is going very hot out there.

Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
#Breaking: #IRGC Quds Force has transferred heavy weapons including artillery rockets to #Iraq to be used by its proxy forces against #US & Coalition Military Bases. #USAF's F-35As from 4th EFS will carry-out airstrike to destroy these weapons if #Iraq fails to stop them



Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
#Breaking: #IRGC Navy has transferred Khalije-Fars anti-ship and Hormuz-1 & 2 SEAD Ballistic missiles to #Yemen & several #Iranian Islands near #HormuzStrait & in #PersianGulf to use them against #USNavy USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft carrier group in case of war.


Babak Taghvaee
@BabakTaghvaee
·
22m
#Breaking: #IRGC will engage the #USNavy USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) Aircraft Carrier Group from #Yemen first. The #Houthi rebels have received Khalije-Fars Anti-ship ballistic missiles & also cruise missiles to use them against the #USNavy in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea

U.S CENTCOM Cheif General Kenneth McKenzie: "It sends a clear and unmistakable message to the Iranian regime, that any attack on US interests will be met with unrelenting force... If a fight is to be had, we'll be fully prepared to respond, and defend our interests. And it won't be a fair fight."



https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x77ux9a

In 2015 Iran signed a deal.. where they promised to stop their nuclear weapon ambitions, ..

They have the fatwa against possessing nukes, so there's no ambition on their part to develop & acquire them. The Grand Ayatollah won't renege on it unless the country is at all-out war. They can unleash 100s BMs across the Gulf on Saudi Arabia oil infrastructure &/ Israel Dimona,etc.  just like NK can on Seoul; that acts as a good deterrent.
It's the US policy of regime change that would drive Iran to getting nukes, just as it did NK, with excellent results.
To sway Trump, Bolton pitches defensive Iran war

The hawks want to bomb Iran, S. Arabia & Israel be damned, before it's too late- in their mind, if/when Iranians get nukes & ICBMs, Trump & his successor can focus on domestic problems & the MIC can calculate its lo$$e$.

Iran weighs options as US on war footing

'Thousands could die': Are US and Iran headed for war?

Russia needs to frustrate US imperialism on all fronts.

1) No UN sanction for any attack on Iran.

2) Military support for Iran in case the NATO hyena pack decides to work outside the law.

The March 1999 gang rape of Serbia by the rabid NATO animals should be prevented. These freaks have not provided a shred of justification for
attacking Iran. And that includes its nuclear program. Only brain dead NATO fanbois would swallow the excrement that an Iranian nuclear
program is some sort of aggression. It is pure defense against the nuclear armed Israel and nuclear armed NATO. No international law or
treaty prevents Iran from pursuing a nuclear program. The NPT is defunct since none of the nuclear powers disarmed. And it was not Iran
that was responsible for this.

Objectively speaking, to the West & Israel, Iran is ripe for partition, just like Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, & Sudan were.

Iran is a tough cookie for three main reasons:

1) We have lost Turkey as a compliant NATO member. Turkey is important for transfer of weapons and troops. Without them, USA has no way of moving the large amount of equipment needed to actually invade Iran. At most maybe some missiles will be launched in which case nothing will really change strategically or geopolitically. We have no way to safely move equipment through Iraq either with Shia Militias basically controlling the South of the country. Without Turkey there is no invasion. Gulf of Aden is brimming with Yemeni ASHM from Iran. Caspian border is unfriendly with Turkey realigning itself into triple entente with Russia Iran and Turkey. With Armenia aligned with Russia and Azerbaijan firmly between Russia and Turkey, the politics of the caspian, and levant currently do not bode well for American intervention.

2) Afghan flank is weakest its been in 20 years of occupation. With less than 20,000 troops in country, without adequate resupply from Central Asian bases Russia is denying us, and with talks with the Taliban, there is no way to shore up the Iranian eastern flank. American troops are allowed to stay in Afghanistan to make exit politically feasible for Washington. But if they wanted to, they could massacre our troops there. We have no way to sustain their deployment, the logistics are a nightmare and that is for supplying a small contingent currently not involved in high intensity combat. No-one is provoking each other, the Taliban reclaimed all the places we stopped patrolling, and we are basically contained to our bases and the immediate zones surrounding them. We have lost Afghanistan we just have to leave without inciting any violence to make it look like we won. Attacking Iran would expose that charade, and make it obvious we have an untenable position there that has been supported by regional actors to keep us spending our resources.

3) Our presence in Kurdistan is hanging by a thread. Attacking Iran would allow Kurdistan to be attacked and would expose our weak position there as well. Turkey understands the threat Idlib poses to Russia, it will lose arab support by offering token resistance to Russia, but on the other hand Turkish support would skyrocket if they attacked Kurdistan and eliminated the Kurdish threat.

1 aircraft carrier is not enough to do jack to Iran. It is psychological warfare made to exert pressure on the Iranian leadership. Trump gave a line to Iran to contact him and make a "deal". They rejected it. It will probably end with US throwing a temper tantrum and having to face the cold hard reality in Afghanistan and Kurdistan. That we are on the brink of being ejected from Levant and greater Mid East.

UAE ships attacked by saboteurs
This could be a false flag operation to blame Iran.
The US cut its teeth by invading Afghanistan & Iraq. They'll fight Iran with aviation, proxies like MEK, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Baluchis, mercenaries, & Israel. This may last a few years or decades.

ehhh Idk, Saudi Arabia and UAE are basically bogged down in Africa and Yemen and have resorted to murdering their own journalists. Oil supply is squeezing them, and they are in a tough situation. Basically they lost or are getting beat up by some dudes in sandals.

As for Baluchistan, they don't seem that threatening if India flies in and bombs them and shells them from time to time, don't seem like Pakistan can do much about it, except for perhaps nukes but they know how that ends for them.

Israel has a very big problem in Gaza. Israel has to show enough force in Gaza to keep Hamas from attacking, but not enough to start a full fledged war that would take resources away from northern border where Hezbollah and Iran are basically there with reinforced positions, missiles, and bridgeheads. In Gaza already rockets were fired killing many Israelis. Israel has a tough internal situation and I doubt they can wage a war against Iran. It is the other way around actually, Iran is on the Israeli border right now.

So I do not think any of those countries pose a serious threat to Iran. They have been a joke so far, and only embarrass themselves. Israel basically opted to attack Russians to save face from many defeats from Hezbollah and Iran. They know any serious actions would result in missile attacks across Israel. But they know they can attack Russia without serious resistance.

In addition, like I said, USA cannot seriously invade Iran at this point. Its just an attempt to pressure and psyche out the leadership, but that only works on American TV shows. Iran will probably tell USA to get stuffed, and begin testing ballistic missiles a la North Korea. Either way USA does not have much of a way to influence Iran anymore short of invading. Without Turkey and with defeat in Afghanland, its not really possible. Trump wanted to deal kurdistan too, but that don't seem to be working....Turkey is gonna invade Kurdland, and basically we will be embarrassed. We would probably kick Turkey from NATO although it would hurt us more than it hurt them. We are screwed and each decision goes from bad to worse. Its hilarious actually to see incompetence on par with Mr. Beans misadventures

FYI, the Israelis r very careful not to directly attack Russia in Syria. But they can assist the US in attacking Iran in various ways.
Bolton wants to bomb Iran day & night, even as he doesn't realize that it's not in the long-term US interests to do so.
This may be a warning not to mess with Iran:
https://www.segodnya.ua/world/wnews/v-portu-v-oae-progremelo-neskolko-moshchnyh-vzryvov-1267080.html

Iran has invested a lot in ballistic missile and cruise missile tech. Iran finally showcased a low altitude flying cruise missile.

So the capabilities of Iran is there.

Russia and Turkey will play a vital role in this and neither want another war in the middle East, especially against Iran. So they will assist Iran were they can.

The calculus is interesting. I don't think they'll entertain the idea of letting Iran get military hardware from Russia after 2020 and become an even harder nut to crack. So something has to happen.

I don't think Pompeo going to Russia is just to bring good news or for some diplomatic pep talk.... Prob the carrier of bad news with deal offers. Like any deal, appearing beneficial for Russia in some form... But americans don't present deals unless the benefit to them outweighs the cost in their strategic maneuvers. Russia should be very careful what it gives away in return for relief. Letting Iran hang to dry for some relief (whatever its form) is a poor trade off. Americans wouldn't offer a deal otherwise.

Nothing will happen, same as with Korea

Neither USA nor Iran have balls for this fight

This is just BS so they could both look tough for media

After Venezuela is Iran's turn?
https://regnum.ru/news/polit/2626784.html

So, this could be a diversion to help enable a regime change in Caracas. Russia won't allow the S. Caspian shore to become a potential base for the USN & will assist Iran to prevent that.

There are no capable proxies on the Iranian border for the US to collaborate with. To realistically change anything with Iran we need the strategic and politically most important zones, which means Tehran, the political center of the Iranian Revolution. Tehran is far north, before reaching it, Bandar-e Abbas, Bushehr, Shiraz, Hamadan, and many other villages and cities lie between it. Realistically a force of over 100,000 will be needed with air support, artillery, ew weapons, advanced C2, and many assets. We have no way of assembling such a force. 1 carrier hardly provides for these solutions, the strike aspects might be covered, but with 0 boots on the ground, nothing will change in Tehran.

If we look at recent order of battles for major battles of last decade, at least 10 divisional sized units would need to be on the ground each of 10,000 troops. At battles of Gori, Tshkinvali, Ilovaisk, Debaltseve, Deir Ez Zour, Aleppo, Palmyra, and so forth, 10,000-20,000 troops were needed for city wide fighting. This is about 2-4 reinforced brigades per city and village sometimes less, and all of the supporting assets which make these brigades effective.

IRGC is not Saddams republican guard or some rag tag militia, this fighting force will be fighting for every inch of urban and desert environment. In Fallujah Americans needed 20,000 to storm the city. Iran is a different beast, the Caspian sea provides strategic depth, as does its eastern Afghan border. Iran can also manage attacks on US bases outside of Iran.

To attack , we need a committed force which we do not have. Balochistanis are hardly controllable even by ISI, they are rogues. $ means nothing, we have tried paying them for years. They are hardcore islamists. In Iraq, the PMU is largely an Iranian invention. To the north, there is Russia, hardly an entry point.

There are no viable proxies, Saudis and UAE are gassed and bogged down. Kurds number very little to meaningfully force Tehran to surrender and make concessions. Israel will not fight for us. They have shown we are their proxies and they will fight Iran to the last American. Unfortunately, there is just no way to amass such a force again. Iran is safe from serious attacks, some pestering strikes will not change anything and will only make the situation worse for US forces in MENA region.

But overall it is just same old barking and cracked teeth for biting

Russia does not have any relations with Uncle Scumbag that need preserving. But it does have a direct Wahabbi threat originating
from a US protectorate that needs to be contained. Iran is much closer to Russia and Russia can fly over the Caspian Sea directly
to Iran with no need for permission from some US vassal state.

Americans are extremely deluded. Russia can render military aid to Iran in any form it wants. The US and some coalition of the
billing will be working outside the UN in any attack on Iran. Russia will thus not be violating any international law by
assisting Iran. And assisting Iran to retain its independence is of primary value for Russia. Letting some US quisling like
the Shah take over will facilitate anti-Russian operations by the USA in Central Asia.

The days of Russia bending over to please the US are over. Uncle Scumbag will soon discover how limited his carrier tub warfare really
is.

nomadski wrote:I think the Russians may help Iran . But not at cost of risking relations with America . The new economics  of the liberal capitalism . But we are not formal military allies . They may do , what they did in Syria or in Iran during WW2 . Partition Iran , or be ready to carve it up . North and south . But Iranians are independent and they will not accept foreign troops  on their ground . It is in their constitution . They are also well armed . And can get better arms . They may not need the Russians to get involved .

This latest " offer " by EU , Mogerini and Pompeo , is a false carrots and sticks approach . But they can keep their carrots and sticks for their own entertainment . Iran needs new nuclear arms . With it it can hardly be attacked . And it can insure economic prosperity , by being able to close down shipping in Persian Gulf .  It can have security and prosperity .

Without nukes , Iran has nothing . The yanks or others will attack . They will put blockade and starve our people  so The Iranian government must change course . A new direction . Not JCPOA .  Not pre JCPOA .  


Forget 60 day ultimatum and playing with a few oil tankers in the Persian Gulf . Get nukes and shove them down Trump throat . So he chokes . The same way he wants to choke Iranian nation . Or a future English would be president or prime minister , dreaming of the empire ! Great Britain !  Make America great !  Hitler also used the word " great " , a lot in his speeches !  The " great " German people ........

From where will this attack come from? What forces? This is a bunch of bullshit is what it is. We do not have the forces in the region to support an attack. Period. 1 aircraft carrier does nothing, an MEU is enough to attack one city, hardly enough to attack multiple iranian cities, and to get to Tehran in short time before dragging into extended conflict.

Washington has no real plan to attack Iran, this is some BS cooked up by Bolton who is on the verge of losing his job. Get serious, attack Iran with 1 carrier??? We needed 100,000 in Kuwait for Iraq. We could not maintain our presence it got costly and we ran away. How the eff are we going to return? We hoped ISIS would take over and then Iran built the PMU.

No attack will happen. In Iraq the PMU is firmly Iranian. What coalition? You think France will send more than 1 brigade? 1 Brigade for them is needed to fight 20 ISIS militants. How the eff will our "allies" help us to fight the hardened Iranians when they are accustomed to fighting a company or platoon sized rag tag unit in Mali/Niger with overwhelming air support?

In Iran there are no proxies we can use to legitimately overthrow Rouhani. Noone serious to work with on the ground, and no presence of our own to make good on those threats.

Its just the ramblings of bolton as hes fired. I hope the door slams on him on the way out

The US can play separatism card with Iranian Azerbaijanis, Arabs & Kurds. They could sustain an air war for weeks, just like over Yugoslavia & Iraq. Diego Garcia & bases in Europe r out of reach of Iranian BMs. Knocking out their electric grid & not letting it come back may result in Ks of civilian deaths & the Mullahs losing power.

Washington regime has no standing army. Nobody is willing to die for them, they are a paper tiger.
Any mistake they might do it will just lead to the faster liberation of american population by these tyrants.
But they will not do anything, they are too cowards, they just panicked because China struggle them completely economically.