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    US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:38 am

    Iran is a country full of smart people... it would make sense to have good relations with them.

    They do some things differently to us, but ultimately they want the same things everyone wants... to be safe and to earn a living in peace.

    There is potential for growth and development, which means there is money to be made too.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:43 pm

    Iran is full of smart people. But they are not always the ones in power. Now France released info on Ukraine plane crash. And  (  I am going to die from NOT - surprise) , they found and published the fact , if true , that planes electronics had been tampered with. And also that , there were information that they would not publish. And leave it to Iranians to publish !  Trump wished for black boxes to go to France.  ( And the defeatist appeasers in Iran agreed.) Because he knew they would cover up. And they have, but only partly. I guess he is not paying them enough!


    Now this give support to the idea that sabotage or electronic tampering or forced control or even a pilotless plane as drone was used, to divert course. But this does not explain why they still will not publish the other part , if it is in line with Iranian government version of shoot down by Iranian missiles?  Therefore plane not shot down by Iranian missile. As I suspected and appeared from YouTube video. ( Early YouTube video does not show bright rocket plume , later versions edited to correct this fault) This explains why Trump knew from sattelite, early on that TOR  missile was used ! Something almost impossible. But when they doubted Iran may not accept responsibility , they show video of shoot down by agent by MANPAD. And Iranians swallowed the bitter pill.

    I think it much smarter to tell the people the truth. Because if they are being attacked, then they must prepare for it. You don't have to declare war. As has been done recently. But simply say, that Iran will not leave unanswered. This is much much better than creating doubt among people and loose their confidence in leadership and army. You would do this if you were smart. But Iranian politics is dominated by the right wing ( sometimes they dress up as left wing or Hezbollah or......) . Concerned  more about the Dollar exchange rate , than the health of their own Volkswagon . Not smart people.


    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/07/ukraine-black-boxes-confirm-interference-jet-downed-iran-200724084336974.html


    https://youtu.be/wxlhyX-4qKI

    Edit : It is better in this case to tell the people. Because Iran faces a war situation. And the knowledge of attack, will have military and economic and political implications. All necessary to ready for war. If people don't know, then they can not prepare.

    And a minority with vested interests, try to strike a secret deal that suits them . Against the national interests of the nation. War is not small matter to be known and decided on by small number of people. So all details of attacks must be made clear. So Iranian people can choose right leaders, build right weapons and take emergency economic measures. The latest attack on Iranian plane, at least had the advantage of revealing the truth.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:44 pm

    Better to wait Trump out:
    https://www.juancole.com/2020/07/the-beginning-iran.html

    Now that Iran became more important to China, she'll be sending advisors & troops there, incl. via Pakistan.
    If Chinese get killed there, all hell will break loose in the SC Sea.
    Can the US fight 2 major wars at the same time?
    crod
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    Post  crod on Wed Jul 29, 2020 12:17 pm

    It’s interesting times for Iran...never a dull moment these days I guess.
    I truly hope decent weapons and systems form part of this agreement. I hope that if China goes the full monty, Russia won’t want to lose out by withholding certain goods because of israel.
    The hardline headbangers in Iran don’t appear pleased with any of this...short sighted in my view but that’s not to say i don’t see merit in some of their issues of course.
    Arm the hell out of them...ME requires a serious rebalancing in military terms. Would like Egypt on the other side stronger too, the more israel is squeezed the better, it has acted with impunity for far too long.
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    Post  par far on Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:50 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Better to wait Trump out:
    https://www.juancole.com/2020/07/the-beginning-iran.html

    Now that Iran became more important to China, she'll be sending advisors & troops there, incl. via Pakistan.
    If Chinese get killed there, all hell will break loose in the SC Sea.
    Can the US fight 2 major wars at the same time?


    I don't think China will send any troops or equipment to Iran. Chinese are business people and they will chase the money. If the US gives China something they like(where the Chinese can make money), than China will back down.

    If a full scale war happens with Iran(the US wants this but Iran does not), than Iran can expect limited help from Russia(I don't think Russia will do anything big) and they won't get any help from China.

    It does not matter what puppet is in the White House, they will always want war with Iran.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:41 pm

    True, but IMO troops will be sent to protect the BRI infrastructure there, help Iran operate Chinese weaponry, & to better defend itself.
    Iran can also give China strategic depth in case India or US cause trouble in Pakistan & Afghanistan, hurting her interests.
    https://www.pravdareport.com/opinion/144788-war_with_china/

    Meanwhile, https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29231/cluster-bomb-toting-f-15es-are-patrolling-the-persian-gulf-to-counter-small-boat-swarms for a year now.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:52 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    Cyberspec
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    Post  Cyberspec on Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:41 am

    Footage from the Iranian exercise...some pretty interesting stuff. First time I've seen their stealth drones being used
    Arrow https://vk.com/video-125982035_456241287

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    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Jul 30, 2020 9:48 am

    Would like Egypt on the other side stronger too, the more israel is squeezed the better, it has acted with impunity for far too long.

    The amusing thing is that if you asked a pro democracy zealot or just your average anti commie what life would be like in 2020 after having 30 years of the end of the Soviet Union with the west essentially unopposed and in charge, they would tell you about electric trains and cars and buses but also bases on the moon and mars, and world peace and prosperity and growth and development... you know... an end to world hunger and disease and real and lasting peace...

    But look at what both israel and the west have done with this opportunity... turned their former enemies into... enemies... turned former allies (China) into enemies too... enemies they made powerful and strong with their investments to make them direct rivals to the Soviets... got into bed with nasty terrorists because the enemy of my enemy is my friend... except that leads to cooperation with some real alien scumbags and that is going to bite you on the ass but some how it is your enemy that is at fault and not you...


    I don't think China will send any troops or equipment to Iran. Chinese are business people and they will chase the money. If the US gives China something they like(where the Chinese can make money), than China will back down.

    The Chinese are not stupid... they know they were used as an attack dog by the west to contain the and defeat the Soviets... western capitalist companies have chewed up and used up lots of countries before... the current generation see everything cheap made in China... it wasn't that many generations ago that the cheap crap was made in Japan and Malaysia and Taiwan and Singapore... and next it will likely be India and Bangledesh... I suspect Pakistan is too hostile for serious investment.

    The Chinese know their usefulness is over to the US and further special treatment will only make the baby bigger and stronger and much more dangerous.. What Japan did was go from cheap exports to quality and precision... something their culture supported... many other countries who went through this investment from western countries couldn't make the transition and wages increased so those western companies moved on, but they generally survived.

    China has been building a navy... lets see if she ever has the balls to actually use it.

    They don't need to sink the entire US Navy... or anything... but they do need to stand up and say no... when they need to.

    If a full scale war happens with Iran(the US wants this but Iran does not)

    The US deep state might want this, but the Average American is the one going to pay the real price... it will be amusing to see all the women demanding equal rights.... all women should be put on the draft right? Or is that a right they are not interested in?

    than Iran can expect limited help from Russia(I don't think Russia will do anything big) and they won't get any help from China.

    I am sure at the very least the Russians can block any shit the US and her bitches try to push through the UNSC and I would expect China will support them on that too.

    Footage from the Iranian exercise.

    Nice vid...
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:02 pm

    it will be amusing to see all the women demanding equal rights.... all women should be put on the draft right? Or is that a right they are not interested in?
    In the West, at east on paper & in many aspects in real life, they now have more rights than men; in the US with its all volunteer military, females can serve in combat units; in Russia & China, they volunteer, in Israel & NK, they r drafted- for them, it's not a right, but an obligation.



    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:37 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:52 pm

    US has now failed in the UNSC to get its resolution to extend the Iran arms embargo indefinitely from Oct 18th. It failed dismally with only 2 out of the 9 votes it needed.

    The rumours out there now is that Iran will push ahead with S-400 and Su-35 purchases for delivery as quickly as possible.

    It is now highly likely that the US will hit out in revenge. Especially given the increasing number of attacks in Iraq caused in the US's mind by Iran.

    In particular, links between Iran and Venezuela look vulnerable, as shown by the claimed, denied by Iran, capture of four tankers this week. Incidentally, those tankers were under half the size of the first batch so someone probably smelt a rat or, put another way, did some good risk analysis.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:03 am

    It's about time they build their own refineries so not only crude & tar can be exported. Iran was in the same situation earlier.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:19 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:It's about time they build their own refineries so not only crude & tar can be exported. Iran was in the same situation earlier.

    In due time, and will eventually happen by the sheer fact that Gazprom has a literal and figurative controlling stake in Venezuelan hydrocarbons.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:36 am

    Really stupid those Venezuelans. Economy based on oil but can't make their own.
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:49 am

    Don't you guys know?

    First, they do have refineries but they have ground to a virtual halt due to US sanctions. One of the first tankers from Iran was loaded with refinery related stuff.

    Second, their crude is too heavy to process, it needs a dilutant, from the US normally.

    Anyway this is O/T so no more on Venezuela here.

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    starman
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    Post  starman on Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:56 am

    JohninMK wrote:
    The rumours out there now is that Iran will push ahead with S-400 and Su-35 purchases for delivery as quickly as possible.

    To have a real fighting chance against zionists, Iran ought to get the SU-57 and T-14 Armata. But whatever Tehran seeks, it would be tough to pay for the quality and quantity needed. As part of the recent deal, isn't China supposed to help Iran develop its own weapons? That may be better economically but dunno if Iran can produce top of the line systems like those mentioned.
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:28 pm

    It looks clear that Iran is not going to use the capture of those tankers by the US as a US/Iran incident.

    They are saying that the fuel was sold FOB the Gulf and loaded onto not their ships under not their flag. What happened was their customers responsibility.
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:36 pm

    starman wrote:
    JohninMK wrote:
    The rumours out there now is that Iran will push ahead with S-400 and Su-35 purchases for delivery as quickly as possible.

    To have a real fighting chance against zionists, Iran ought to get the SU-57 and T-14 Armata. But whatever Tehran seeks, it would be tough to pay for the quality and quantity needed. As part of the recent deal, isn't China supposed to help Iran develop its own weapons? That may be better economically but dunno if Iran can produce top of the line systems like those mentioned.

    Are you in cloud cuckoo land? The Russian military doesn't have a single production Su-57 and only a few T-14 Amartas and you are suggesting that what there is goes to Iran? Get real.

    As to Iranian production, were you thinking of them ramping up their F-5 replica numbers? They will be buying in as much as they can get as quickly as they can get it, not dream of making it. Expect to see Russian products cross the Caspian and Russian branded oil flow out of the Gulf.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Aug 16, 2020 1:20 pm

    How many su-57 and S-400 could they buy ? 24-48 and maybe 2.

    Not enough.

    Better s-300VM/S-350 and lot of mig-35 + pantsirs.

    T-14 and tanks in general are useless for them against US/Israel. They won't see any merkava on their border.
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Aug 16, 2020 3:11 pm

    Isos wrote:How many su-57 and S-400 could they buy ? 24-48 and maybe 2.

    Not enough.

    Better s-300VM/S-350 and lot of mig-35 + pantsirs.

    T-14 and tanks in general are useless for them against US/Israel. They won't see any merkava on their border.

    Academic question. There are none to buy. Not many Mig-35 either.

    Given the geography tanks have limited use, especially for an invader.

    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Aug 16, 2020 3:19 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    Isos wrote:How many su-57 and S-400 could they buy ? 24-48 and maybe 2.

    Not enough.

    Better s-300VM/S-350 and lot of mig-35 + pantsirs.

    T-14 and tanks in general are useless for them against US/Israel. They won't see any merkava on their border.

    Academic question. There are none to buy. Not many Mig-35 either.

    Given the geography tanks have limited use, especially for an invader.


    You are quite wrong about the mig35. The production lines of Mig are empty but their worker are very qualified. Any order could be answered very fast. The 50 egyptian mig-29M or naval mig-29k were done pretty quickly. Pantsir and S-300 are also dispobible quickly. S-400 not really.

    I agree about tanks. Tanks have around 500km range which is nothing compared to the distances btw US bases there and all Iran. Supply lines would be horribly long and the stockage bases would be targeted by ballistic missiles all day.

    If war happen, Iran would need to face mainly air forces and navies. They already have enough subs to close the strait and enough ballistic missiles to target US bases so the only two thing they need is fighters/Awacs and air defence systems (mostly shorads to defend against missiles).
    starman
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    Post  starman on Sun Aug 16, 2020 4:12 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    The Russian military doesn't have a single production Su-57 and only a few T-14 Amartas and you are suggesting that what there is goes to Iran? Get real.

    I didn't mean now but whenever they're available for export. Russia wanted to sell the SU-57 to India. The Indians backed out of the deal but the point is, the SU-57 is for sale. Btw some time ago, Russia granted Iran a license to build T-72S tanks and Tehran produced 2,500.
    @Isos, I know Iran won't see a merkava on its border. I meant at some future date Iran, like Iraq in '73, may send a large expeditionary force to Syria.


    Last edited by starman on Sun Aug 16, 2020 9:25 pm; edited 2 times in total
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:40 pm

    Two points. First Iranian generals must decide what plane they want and place any contract now. And as important is training of pilots. Can this start now? So once planes arrive, they can start immediately operations. Can spare parts manufacture and Ammo manufacture also start now in Iran?  Before any war start ?


    Second point about oil shipment. Same as Syria, Russia and China can provide carriers and Tankers as well as Iran itself. But this time no private contractor. Must be state owned and operated. So threat of sanction useless. Also provide at least armed guards on Tankers. So they can not be taken over or diverted.


    I think the Americans, now or later will continue with sanction policy. Maintain pressure. So the chances of war are there. And without a detterent, Iran can not hold back the Americans, without much damage. I ask here the leaders of China and Russia to rethink policy of Nuclear non- proliferation.  As far as I know, Nukes in the world bring peace. So if Americans arm other nations with Nukes, in retaliation for say Iran going Nuke. Then this will only lead to peace among nations. In this case I think both Russia and China, should continue trade. Let Japan or Saudi or....... Go Nuke........ Good for all concerned.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:24 am


    https://www.juancole.com/2020/08/understanding-strategic-partnership.html


    https://inosmi.ru/politic/20200817/247939003.html?utm_source=24smi&utm_medium=referral&utm_term=2152&utm_content=3093293&utm_campaign=2261


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:27 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    Post  par far on Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:59 am

    If iran was smart, they would develop their economy and improve the lives of their citizens, they can do this by saying keep the arms embargo but remove all other sanctions.

    Iran already has a good deterrent and that is their missiles, they can hit anyone in the Middle East and even further.

    There is no point for Iran to get fighter jets or anything like that.
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    Post  Isos on Tue Aug 18, 2020 8:22 am

    par far wrote:If iran was smart, they would develop their economy and improve the lives of their citizens, they can do this by saying keep the arms embargo but remove all other sanctions.

    Iran already has a good deterrent and that is their missiles, they can hit anyone in the Middle East and even further.

    There is no point for Iran to get fighter jets or anything like that.

    Even UK, France and Germany didn't support US resolution. Iran respected the agreements and it is US/Iran that try to create even more tensions and they lost any credibility.

    Anyway China/Russia will arm them no matter what. Both are sick of US stupid actions and will do anything to remove them of their 1st place.

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