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    US-Iran standoff 2019- #2

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:07 am

    Yes agree KVS.  About MANPAD probably hitting. Even IRGC is hinting at this. But problem remains of yank prior knowledge of missile strike. They stated clearly of this fact, very early on. When no clear evidence existed. Taken together with statements by Canadians and IRGC and latest Ukraine statement , that they will compensate, looks like a big cover up.  

    Agree, political system weak and compromised. A minority government. Lack of political participation by greater number of public. And revolutionary forces. This leading to compromised security and defence. Leading to position of defeat. In a sense, Iran is normal country. You get same Liberal elite, creating disorder. In Iran they wear beards and this confuses folk !
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:45 am

    An other interesting fact is that the crew tried to contact their boss by radio and couldn't. Which could mean a Growler was jamming communications and radars. That would explain why they confused the airliner for a cruise missile.

    The downing happened few hours after the missile launch on the US air base. Then the iraqi airspace was full of US jets. And they were probably already jammig the airdefences waiting for the orders to bomb Teheran.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:04 am

    Isos wrote:An other interesting fact is that the crew tried to contact their boss by radio and couldn't. Which could mean a Growler was jamming communications and radars. That would explain why they confused the airliner for a cruise missile.

    The downing happened few hours after the missile launch on the US air base. Then the iraqi airspace was full of US jets. And they were probably already jammig the airdefences waiting for the orders to bomb Teheran.

    Show any proof a growler was jamming them then, please don't make such hairbrained excuses without facts.

    Cause there was no sign of a Growler and Russia nor Iran stated the coms where jammed, you can try and cover up Iran's fuck up all you want on their end but that just being low imo.

    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:07 am

    nomadski wrote:Yes agree KVS.  About MANPAD probably hitting. Even IRGC is hinting at this. But problem remains of yank prior knowledge of missile strike. They stated clearly of this fact, very early on. When no clear evidence existed. Taken together with statements by Canadians and IRGC and latest Ukraine statement , that they will compensate, looks like a big cover up.  

    Agree, political system weak and compromised. A minority government. Lack of political participation by greater number of public. And revolutionary forces. This leading to compromised security and defence. Leading to position of defeat. In a sense, Iran is normal country. You get same Liberal elite, creating disorder. In Iran they wear beards and this confuses folk !

    They knew this right away because Radar data showed the missile going at the plane and other data supported it, there is no grand conspiracy theory.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:00 pm

    I admit it, Iran is messed up. The clowns operating the MANPADs need to be shot. Summarily. Having these sorts of morons for defense renders
    the defense pointless. But their bosses are idiots too. They should provide them with information about targets and not have them fire off missiles
    at any random point of light in the sky. And such elements are easy to manipulate by foreign intelligence operations. Only a 3rd world toilet would
    use irregular units like MANPAD operators for national defense.

    IADS are expensive and complex... Europe doesn't have one... why would Iran?

    Even IRGC is hinting at this. But problem remains of yank prior knowledge of missile strike.

    Wouldn't surprise me if they had embedded agents in Iran equipped with MANPADS... they handed them out like lollies in the 1980s till a few got into the wrong hands and some airliners got shot down... oops...

    Show any proof a growler was jamming them then, please don't make such hairbrained excuses without facts.

    Why shouldn't he speculate... until it was confirmed by the Iranians the idea of the airliner being shot down was speculation too...

    Unless you did it...

    Cause there was no sign of a Growler and Russia nor Iran stated the coms where jammed, you can try and cover up Iran's fuck up all you want on their end but that just being low imo.

    The problem for the US is taht when you hands continuously drip with blood you tend to leave bloody hand prints every where.... now I am sure as a sipper of the Kool Aide you will believe teh blood comes from their wrists where the nails held them to the cross because America is jesus fucking christ and can do no wrong and how dare you think other wise... but the rest of us are old enough to know better...

    They knew this right away because Radar data showed the missile going at the plane and other data supported it, there is no grand conspiracy theory.

    Radar tracking tiny missiles but not tracking ballistic missiles that made it all the way to their targets... really don't believe anything trump says because ten minutes later he can say he misspoke and meant the opposite...
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    Arrow

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    Post  Arrow on Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:19 pm

    You are not getting it... PAC-3 and THAAD are fucking expensive... not every little HQ and base in the Middle East with US soldiers in it can have PAC-3 or THAAD defending them... PAC-3 has an effective radius against ballistic targets of less than 30km... the message it sent is that the US can't protect all its people in the Middle East. wrote:

    S-400s are also very expensive and their ABM radius is also about 40 km. Mindtorm often writes that Western anti-aircraft defense is very weak. Some US bases are not protected. The bases and infrastructure protected by PAC 3 and THAAD are very well protected at a similar or better level than the objects protected by S-400. So Western air and missile defense is not weak. There may be gaps and not everything is protected like in Russia.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:23 pm

    Here a photo taken by  yank special forces of assassinated General Soliemani. His burning body..........


    https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-special-operations-forces-soleimani-strike-aftermath-photos

    Soon they will start taking photo of their own burning body. Yank scumbag..........
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:39 pm

    nomadski wrote:Here a photo taken by  yank special forces of assassinated General Soliemani. His burning body..........


    https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-special-operations-forces-soleimani-strike-aftermath-photos

    Soon they will start taking photo of their own burning body. Yank scumbag..........

    US can easily expect 10 times more IED everywhere where they operate. Yesterday a US light vehicule exploded in afgghanistan from a IED attack.
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    Post  Mindstorm on Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:45 pm

    Arrow wrote:Mindstorm you are lying. How this attack could show the sensitivity of air defense. This US base was not protected by PAC 3 or THAAD. If PAC 3 and THAADs were there, most of the missiles would be intercept. This is how it looks. Many ballistic missiles were intercepted in Saudi Arabia, which shows that the US missile defense is in good shape.


    Arrow there is not chance for me or anyone to lie about the abyshmal-to-not-existing air defense capabilities of US and, most in general, western born military infrastructures and forces around the world:since 1990 up to the latest attack to the Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia last year US air defense have regularly and shockingly failed to provide even only a semblance of protection in theirs area of deployment often failing to achieve even only a single interception in the course of those attacks.

    What happened some day ago is simply the umpteenth confirmation of this rule about "air defense vulnerability" (sensitivity of air defense have no meaning in this context) of wide majority of US military structures around the world.

    I have more times stressed that military doctrine and struture of USA military forces is exclusively expeditionary and offensive in nature .

    From those fundamental ideas originate two "umbalanced" force composition and infrastructure needs : a full Air-Centric force structure (even in its naval component) and planetary-level widespread Military Bases

    Both those factors increase of several times the economic burden for the realization of the elementary concepts at the basis of theirs doctrine and obviously reduce at times the military cost-effectiveness (the "bang-for -the-bucks" in theirs slang) of theirs military budget , but remain the only option to wage in very short times wars/limited conflicts against inferior enemies anywhere in the world.

    The sub-products coming from those factors are: a fundamental underdevelopment of Ground Forces - because US Command was very aware that never the forces produced and transported from over-the-ocean could ever compete with the continental and vastly superior Soviet Ground Forces and relied on extensive nuclear escalation to stop theirs advance - a fundamental underdevelopment of Air Defense systems and coverage-.

    The assumptions of USA Doctrine is that theirs bases, in particular air bases with theirs weapon depots and command centers, would reamain relatively safe from enemy attacks because enemies sophisticated enough to be capable to destroy them (and in this way crumbling the same basis of theirs air-centric military structure) would be restrained by nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction while the others thanks to weapon treaties banning the exportation of offensive long range missiles, wouldn't be capable to destroy theirs aircraft and PGM depots in theirs widely dispoersed bases around the world.

    US in substance has never developed both the technology and doctrine for the constitution of a real IAD simply because it would be totally impossbile for the US to create and place IAD networks at defense of theirs bases and theirs expeditionary forces around the world.

    Even only a simple battery of Бук or even Панцирь-C (for not say С-300П/С-300В familes or С-400) could have neutralized an attack like the one executed by Iran some days ago with short range tactical ballistic missiles, but US simply has NONE of similar, exactly like it lack purposely designed EW domes or masking equipment for those assets.

    If anyone observe a typical US air base around the globe where gold-plated F-22s, F-35s and theirs equally gold-plated PGMs are stationed cannot avoid to remain shocked at the total lack of any layered air defense (often lacking even only a single layer even of theirs inferior systems !) EW defensive systems , and real hardening and masking elements ; practically they expose several dozen of billions and years of construction times to easy destruction in a matter of minutes by part of opponents using realtively low-cost and trivial attacking means simply because they are confident that international insulation with the aid of theirs "allies" ,economic pressure and action from the interior bu parts of theirs infiltrated and well-paid fifth column agents will prevent a similar attack from happening.

    That is theirs concept of "air defense".........

    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:05 pm

    Until today US had aerial superiority on any battlefield. Russian air force was not even 1/10 of USSR until Putin started to buy massively everything. China was a 3rd world country. None but US and its allies had real precise cruise missiles ...

    They didn't need air defence. Only need for their ships.

    Now everything changes. Poor country like Iran and north korea have ballistic missiles with less than 10m ECP. Russia has kalibr and other cruise missiles and iskander that will get greater range. China makes tens of different missiles every year. Non alligned countries like Algeria buy state of art sukhois and kalibr missiles like India too...

    The main issue for west will be cost becayse their doctrine is to have lot of planees and with f35 and other future 5th generation jets they won't have money for air defence to protect their jets on the ground from long range missiles.

    Russia has right now enough UKSK cells and iskanders to take out all the fighter jets in europe and the awacs. Then its bomber would be safe to bomb anything they want all day.


    Last edited by Isos on Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:10 pm

    Mindstorm, that's a very good analysis.

    It can be applied to us Brits and the French as well but to a lessor degree. Even here in the UK, where we invented IADS back in 1939/40, there is virtually nothing apart from good radars and C3. Its virtually fighter based defence or nothing and that's for our 'homeland'!
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:14 pm

    Isos wrote:

    The main issue for west will be cost becayse their doctrine is to have lot of planees and with f35 and other future 5th generation jets they won't have money for air defence to protect their jets on the ground from long range missiles.

    Russia has right now enough UKSK cells and iskanders to take out all the fighter jets in europe and the awacs. Then its bomber would be safe to bomb anything they want all day.
    Spot on.

    Once the airbases are gone SLBM are the only defence. Probably the only reason the UK is replacing, at vast cost, its submarines.
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    Post  par far on Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:50 pm

    "Qatari emir in Tehran to boost ties, discuss latest developments."

    Why would the Qatari Emir be in Iran? Maybe to clam things down?

    The drone that killed killed General Qassem Soleimani came from Qatar and the CENTCOM or whatever it is called is located in Qatar?

    Maybe he is there to tell the Iranians that Qatar had nothing do with this.

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/12/615987/Iran-Hassan-Rouhani-Qatar-emir
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:01 pm

    par far wrote:"Qatari emir in Tehran to boost ties, discuss latest developments."

    Why would the Qatari Emir be in Iran? Maybe to clam things down?

    The drone that killed killed General Qassem Soleimani came from Qatar and the CENTCOM or whatever it is called is located in Qatar?

    Maybe he is there to tell the Iranians that Qatar had nothing do with this.

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/12/615987/Iran-Hassan-Rouhani-Qatar-emir

    Saudia arabia and UAE made Quatar their enemy. Quatar is the one with the strongest ties with Iran in the gulf. They won't go at war with Iran even if US ask them.

    The drone came from the base that Iran bombed.
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    Post  par far on Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:13 pm

    Isos wrote:
    par far wrote:"Qatari emir in Tehran to boost ties, discuss latest developments."

    Why would the Qatari Emir be in Iran? Maybe to clam things down?

    The drone that killed killed General Qassem Soleimani came from Qatar and the CENTCOM or whatever it is called is located in Qatar?

    Maybe he is there to tell the Iranians that Qatar had nothing do with this.

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/12/615987/Iran-Hassan-Rouhani-Qatar-emir

    Saudia arabia and UAE made Quatar their enemy. Quatar is the one with the strongest ties with Iran in the gulf. They won't go at war with Iran even if US ask them.

    The drone came from the base that Iran bombed.

    Thanks for the information Isos, i had them mixed up, CENTCOM is in Qatar, I had them mixed up.
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Jan 12, 2020 4:50 pm

    Iranian protesters take to streets after Tehran admits Ukrainian plane was unintentionally shot down

    Boeing faces more trouble after crash of a Ukrainian 737 jet in Iran

    The troubled company can thank Trump & Pompeo for its future extra losses.
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    Post  franco on Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:30 pm

    par far wrote:"Qatari emir in Tehran to boost ties, discuss latest developments."

    Why would the Qatari Emir be in Iran? Maybe to clam things down?

    The drone that killed killed General Qassem Soleimani came from Qatar and the CENTCOM or whatever it is called is located in Qatar?

    Maybe he is there to tell the Iranians that Qatar had nothing do with this.

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/12/615987/Iran-Hassan-Rouhani-Qatar-emir

    Reports are that the Qatar Emir is being an intermediator for the USA.
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    par far

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    Post  par far on Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:08 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Iranian protesters take to streets after Tehran admits Ukrainian plane was unintentionally shot down

    Boeing faces more trouble after crash of a Ukrainian 737 jet in Iran

    The troubled company can thank Trump & Pompeo for its future extra losses.

    I don't think Boeing will have any problems, I think a message will be going out soon, buy aircraft from Boeing and if you don't, you face sanctions.
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    Post  par far on Sun Jan 12, 2020 6:09 pm

    franco wrote:
    par far wrote:"Qatari emir in Tehran to boost ties, discuss latest developments."

    Why would the Qatari Emir be in Iran? Maybe to clam things down?

    The drone that killed killed General Qassem Soleimani came from Qatar and the CENTCOM or whatever it is called is located in Qatar?

    Maybe he is there to tell the Iranians that Qatar had nothing do with this.

    https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/12/615987/Iran-Hassan-Rouhani-Qatar-emir

    Reports are that the Qatar Emir is being an intermediator for the USA.


    I hope he is careful, being a intermediator for the US can end badly for the intermediator.
    littlerabbit
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    Post  littlerabbit on Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:46 pm

    It looks there was another rocket attack, on military base Balad, in Iraq...there are some casualties.

    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/01/12/world/middleeast/12reuters-iraq-security-base.html
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:08 pm

    The rent-a-crowd is out in force in Iran demanding regime change over the Ukr jet downing. This is prima facie evidence that the
    whole jet downing was a USA psy op. Any Iranians that were involved in pulling the trigger are 100% stooges and not representative
    of Iran.

    Even if I was an Iranian and wanted the Ayatollahs to go, I would not use the jet downing as a pretext for demonstrating. There
    is no clear indication that this was an attrocity. Thus the theme of these protests is artificially injected as is the norm for rent-a-crowds.
    Since rent-a-crowds take a while to organize, the whole jet downing was planned well in advance. By Iran's enemies.

    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:41 pm

    @ KVS

    Agree. The conclusion we arrived at earlier in this topic. USA special ops team with MANPAD. Here is video showing exact moment first missile hit. Before plane engine was on fire, and not a public spectacle,  or visible at night to draw attention. How lucky must you be to capture this image by chance?

    https://youtu.be/TdvcKFtrjV0

    On another video, of sky news, the reporter said that Bellingcat (  MI6 ) had received and analysed YouTube video. Amazing how quickly they discover this YouTube clip. Here Trump knows something terrible happened. How does he know? Also he is happy black box going to Boeing or France. And that is OK!

    https://youtu.be/aBTzwMaGplQ

    American murderer.

    https://youtu.be/0d-hC-hG0d4
    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK on Sun Jan 12, 2020 10:48 pm

    Finally found the Iranian IRGC General's explanation of what happened and why with English subtitles.

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:07 pm



    Update: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/hassan-nasrallah-attacks-iraqi-bases-start-200112164659865.html
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    Post  ATLASCUB on Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:03 am

    There is nothing like a good crisis to stress test a nations leadership, its cohesion and unity. Iran has cracked open to show many dangerous holes leadership wise... its elites are split - compromised or useful idiots alike. Iran can not afford to be in that position, even if America shows the same cracks.

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