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    US-Iran standoff 2019-

    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:48 pm

    If conflict breaks out, the US will use bunker busters and precision weapons to destroy Iran’s missile and nuclear weapons centers

    China might take Iran’s side in a war with US



    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:08 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:00 pm

    Yes Aristide. But there are different forms of wealth. And Europe does not have to choose Iran. But they will, once yank looses so much, that they will retreat. Everyone then free. You choose say  yank. I choose China.

    BTW. This ruse to attack cultural sites, together with carriers retreating and previous recent F15 attack against PMU, indicates Yanks thinking of using Saudi Air bases for attack against Iran. But I say again priority is the offensive North. Posture to any Saudi / Usrael attack should be defensive at first. If possible.

    Also air defence should not be tricked into using main battle radar. Only passive optic or aircraft interception. Until large number of attack justify using main battle radar.

    Also what exactly are China goinq  to do in Iraq? Drive out yank? Or train Iraqi how to cook fried rice? Also British want to stay. Why? Too many cook, spoil the soup. Chances of skirmishes. Let Iranians clean out the Yanks. Then come in as trainers or cooks.....
    Dima
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    Post  Dima on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:03 pm

    JohninMK wrote:This guy is a pretty good commentator. How about his theory?


    Lozion@62 - Re: Your Magnier quote, "The US did not plan to kill the vice commander of the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi brigade Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes when it assassinated Iranian Brigadier General Qassem Soleiman"

    The light bulb above my chimpanzee brain just flickered (briefly). Somewhere on SST (maybe Lang?): something to the effect of 'Never underestimate US gov/mil incompetence'. Maybe it was the opposite of what Magnier thought really took place.

    Treasonous, dual-citizen chickenhawks of the US possibly targeted Hashd al-Shaabi vice-commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes. They were trying to kill him because they found out from some snitch that he just showed up at the airport for some reason. The all-seeing US didn't realize Soleimani was even there. I guess because the sneaky Soleimani flew commercial into Baghdad and probably carried his bags to the waiting SUVs. Who would have expected that? How devious!

    This seems entirely plausible to me. Soleimani was too expensive a target - end of the State of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE and all. But whacking a vice-commander of Hashd al-Shaabi with a quarter-million dollar JAGM? Hell YEAH! We live for this kind of preventative assassination heroism in the US. Especially if accompanied by colorful graphics.

    The awkward and delayed response of the usual US mil/gov mouthpieces makes this ridiculous scenario even more believable. I have thoroughly convinced myself that this was a US screw-up of EPIC proportions. In case the US government is reading MoA, this was all Lozion's doing. I'm an innocent conspiracy primate.

    Posted by: PavewayIV | Jan 5 2020 1:00 utc | 135


    ...................
    Or perhaps it is more the case that they didn't expect to have to launch a massive damage control operation this weekend? PavewayIV's speculation back @135, though evidence doesn't exist at the moment to prove it, fits what we do know surprisingly well. The outrageous incompetence, not just of the current administration in Washington but of the entire imperial establishment, is certainly extreme enough for them to not even know Gen. Suleimani was there. That and the casual attitude Americans have about murder such that they wouldn't bother checking who else they might be killing in their enthusiasm to spill blood easily explains why they didn't double check the target.

    Americans are convinced that they can wield violence like a sculptor wields a chisel, carving a pro-empire masterpiece out of the raw material that the world represents like Michelangelo working a block of marble. A sick blend of hubris and psychosis.

    Relying on low-skill second string spin management staff to cover the screw-up? The Tweeter-in-Chief's uncharacteristic silence after the deed was done? The US now trying to negotiate their way out of the the justified response that is inevitable? The US starting a war with not nearly enough troops and hardware in the theater to have any hope at success? I think the speculation by PavewayIV @135 might be right. The fools who think themselves to be artistes de violence shattered their "masterpiece" with an errant blow and now must change their adult incontinence garments.

    Posted by: William Gruff | Jan 5 2020 19:00 utc | 324

    https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/the-revenge-for-the-assassination-of-qassem-soleimani/comments/page/2/#comments
    I don't believe it was a case of mistaken identity!
    The usual suspects have been waiting to kill the General for long, but probably never got a chance or the situation never got to the level where Trump had no other choice other than to strike QS. Untill now.
    Last time, somehow DT withdrew striking Iran at the "last moment"...

    Initial thoughts always centred around a trap and Iraqi PM's address to parliament cleared any doubt regarding it...The airstrike killing few dozen Iraqi security men was the trap with the intend of getting QS into Iraq. (Or maybe it was actually the Saudi related de-escalation as mentioned by PM)

    So the question that arise is - Why now? - the Answer probably lies connected with the Idlib offensive and war on Syria. In recent weeks we have seen how the propaganda peaked in favour of the international terrorists and DT was barking loud in their support. It was to divert and disorient the fight against international terrorists inside Syria.
    In the war on Syria, QS was the one who spearheaded the initiative to help and save Syria and in the process dragged a reluctant Russia into the picture in 2015. Also, don't forget how the scum Medvedev ruled Russia behaved when the crisis began - they started withdrawing Russian personnel from Tartus when things started getting hot. A move which was cowardly and in a sense betrayal.

    So why in Iraq? Why not in Syria?
    The most probable reason is the Russian presence in Syria.

    As far as I gather, the only "unexpected" situation that popped up between the US strike on Iraqi security forces and the assassination of QS was the Iraqi protest which left the US ambassador run from Iraq and protesters stroming the US embassy.

    par far wrote:The US knew full well who was there, there were inside moles that gave the information(the same thing happened to Arsen Pavlov, Mikhail Tolstykh and Aleksandr Zakharchenko.)

    The US intelligence knew full well what they were doing. They were trying to get Iran into a war.
    I agree, but then the biggest insider is joogle and Android.
    Untill and unless Russia and China join hands to bring out a completely independent OS, there shall be no secrets. Every single world likely passes filtered through the usual suspects.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:06 pm

    No country even Israel (they are happy about that but they don't want to be targeted by hundred of Iranian missiles that are a different than the hezbollah's katyusha rockets) will take part in this confrontation. They will let US and Iran do whatever they want but there won't be support from EU to anyone.
    Dima
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    Post  Dima on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:08 pm

    PapaDragon wrote:Which interests?

    They have nothing to gain from helping Iran

    And they would gain a lot from petroleum prices skyrocketing as a result of massive war in Iran to say nothing of USA being busy there for several decades

    Russia deciding to follow their own interests here would be devastating for Iran

    It is exactly morons like these inside Russia that have plagued Russia's ability to see things with clarity and plan long term!
    Dima
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    Post  Dima on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:36 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Actually, one of Russia's biggest advantages to keeping Iran friendly is the Caspian sea.  Caspian sea is the last sea Russia has dominance in.  So keeping Iran friendly will prevent US and NATO getting in that area.  So covertly, helping Iran would benefit Russia greatly.
    Yes. Unfortunately, morons doesn't understand how important Iran is for the security of Russia.

    Its not Soviet days, its a Russia which is only a fraction of what USSR was in terms of military power. During Soviet period, the American poodles in Iran checked the Soviets, but they couldn't ingress the caspian or into the Russian heartland only coz Soviet Union was powerful and the republics along the caspian was firmly under control. But not anymore.

    Call its Gods grace that the poodles in Iran fell in 1979 and the current set up came. Even then the Islamic terrorists in the caucasus was not the handiwork of Iran, but was bred and unleashed by the western free world.

    Just think what would have happened if it was the same American poodles was in Iran after Soviet Union was dissolved. NATO would have sliced into Russian soft underbelly like hot knife through butter through Caspian.
    And this is exactly what will happen if Iran fall.
    Dima
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    Post  Dima on Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:45 pm

    kvs wrote:Time for Russia to feed the Iranians some high level intelligence as to the location of key US and Israeli intelligence assets and for some
    "Iranian terrorism" to happen.
    What Russia & China needs to do is transfer (sell/lease) some ships at the earliest, on an emergency basis, to the Iranians.
    This has to be kept below the nuclear level....


    I'm all in for Russia & China actively supporting Iran.
    Russia and China can make a big difference to the current situation by not not even directly indulging in a fight, but by giving emergency military aid. By military aid/hardware, I specifically mean two areas - Air Defence (more S-300/Buk/Tors etc) and Ships.

    What Iran needs now is the ability to strike and deter (w/o having N-weapons) the murican forces and in process (longer term) force the muricans to close down their bases in the Gulf.

    I would like Russia and China to transfer some ships on an urgent/emergency basis so that its operationally available in 3-6 months time or at the earliest.
    Russia - 6 x 21631 (RuN got 3 in Caspian fleet and 3 in Black sea fleet)
    China - 6 x Type-054A (PLAN has got 30 of them)

    21631 -  I don't mean to have it in an anti-shipping role, but change the 8 x VLS into 32 x 9M317ME or 9M96E/E2 and pair it with Type-054A.
    The intent is to put a no-fly zone, but not limited to, above the USAF base in Qatar from the seas.
    Dima
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    Post  Dima on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:02 pm

    kvs wrote:Iran needs to get real about its nuclear program.   We have the example of Libya and Qaddafi who stopped his program and got
    butchered by NATzO and its terrorist proxies.    There is a 100% guarantee that the yanquis and the Israelis will do precisely nothing
    if Iran gets sufficient nuclear weapons capability.    

    It was a mistake for Iran to impose any sort of delay on its nuclear program.   The lunatics in Washington and Tel Aviv are trying
    to start a war on Iran to bomb it back into the "stone age".   This is naked aggression by a collection of war criminal vermin.   Iran
    not only has the moral authority to defend itself with nuclear weapons it has the legal right.   All the bitching about the NPT when
    Israel is in gross violation of it and when the NPT is legally defunct since the key provisions pertaining to disarmament by the main
    nuclear powers were never implemented and never will be.
    Agree. But Nuclear program can wait a bit...I don't mean halting.

    But first things first.

    Get as much S-300/400 and medium and short-range AD system as possible from Russia. Does Russia have the balls to sell them is the real question.
    Hannibal Barca
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    Post  Hannibal Barca on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:10 pm

    Dima wrote:
    Agree. But Nuclear program can wait a bit...I don't mean halting.

    But first things first.

    Get as much S-300/400 and medium and short-range AD system as possible from Russia. Does Russia have the balls to sell them is the real question.


    That's why I believe that Putin (and I am a HUGE supporter of his all these years),
    run his historic purpose and should hand the leadership to a young lion that is less indirect and prosaic.
    Time to step up a gear, be active, dictate the terms, give no shit about the European vassals and spit western culture in the face.
    jhelb
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    Post  jhelb on Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:12 pm

    nomadski wrote:

    https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2020/01/06/2176058/us-troops-in-west-asia-awaiting-death-general-soleimani-s-daughter-says

    Soon.

    Iran should target corporate america. They are the ones who benefit the most from wars. Wipe out a few dozen big names of corporate america and us will get the message.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:01 pm

    @ Dima

    Agree about more of everything. But too late in six months. I think war is matter of days. Or weeks.
    Think fighter jets more urgent than SAM. IMHO.

    @ Jhleb

    Good idea. Identify corporate interests first in region. Non military sector. Put non military sector against military sector. If possible. And if enough targets. If not, hit what you can. War is blunt instrument.
    Isos
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    Post  Isos on Mon Jan 06, 2020 11:15 pm

    Anyway the crisis shows how the US are defenceless against cruise and ballistic missile threats.

    I wouldn't like to be at the place of a US soldier in one of those ME bases right now. They must be scared like never and most of them are sons of poor people while Trump's sons are playing golf.
    PapaDragon
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    Post  PapaDragon on Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:48 am

    Dima wrote:.....It is exactly morons like these inside Russia that have plagued Russia's ability to see things with clarity and plan long term!

    Like Soviets were sticking their dicks out for any clown on this planet and routinely got fu*ked as a thank you? Good plan, totally worked the first time

    And this is same Iran that refused to allow Russia to station bombers in their country to fight terrorists that were threatening Iran

    Top grade ally to throw yourself on the grenade for right there  lol1



    Dima wrote:.....Get as much S-300/400 and medium and short-range AD system as possible from Russia.

    Agreed

    Payment in advance and in full.

    US dollars or gold only, none of that oil, gas, loan or credit BS



    Dima wrote:....Does Russia have the balls to sell them is the real question.

    Of course... as soon as arms embargo expires in six months

    Naturally Iran could have bought those goodies before embargo but that would require actually planning to fight a war plus they didn't want to upset their preferred US and EU luxury merchandise providers



    jhelb wrote:....Iran should target corporate america...

    They should target many tings but they won't because they don't have the balls for it

    Usually they would send some unmarked nutjobs to blow themselves up somewhere and pretend they don't know nuffin

    But they can't do that now because they know that Orange Orangutan will light them up the moment something funny happens

    So they will just huff and puff and bend over and take it until things quiet down

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    ATLASCUB

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    Post  ATLASCUB on Tue Jan 07, 2020 12:59 am

    2 posters you should ignore for better reading: Papa and Ariste...

    The U.S doesn't want War with Iran but does not mind having War with Iran.

    The U.S wants to create new rules so that they can upset the current status quo. The current status quo is not working in America's favor. Iranian militias are not weakening... Iraq is not under their control.. they lost the Syrian game and Afghanistan as well...Yemen blew up in the Saudi's face. Time is not on the U.S side. In essence they're losing the M.E. Thus, by killing Soleimani, the U.S wants to force Iran into a hard choice: War or taking it up the ass. "Taking it up the ass" means that the U.S will go after all of Iranian's proxy networks with impunity - no red lines. This will contain Iran to its own borders, and solidify the U.S position in the Middle East as the absolute King. It will keep Russia a chimp, and the Chinese in check (over 50% of the oil China consumes comes from the M.E).

    Why now? Events presented the opportunity.

    Iran was on clear path to getting out of the Nuclear Deal and then getting the bomb. The U.S had no intention of dropping the sanctions so the impasse was never going to be resolved diplomatically. Thus, once you accept that fact, you strike Iran now.

    Also the clock is ticking on the U.N moratorium that bans Iran from buying weapons from Russia/China. Thus Iran was on a path to strengthening its deterrence and capabilities. Once you accept that fact, it beckons to strike Iran now.

    Iran right now is at its relative weakest vs. what it will be in the future. The Iranian economy will, like all sanctioned countries, find stability under duress over time... as Cuba, North Korea and other sanctioned states have in the past. Thus, once you accept that fact, it beckons to strike Iran now.

    If the enemy has time on their side - you strike them now . Better now before they become even stronger, and become a bigger headache.

    Naturally, not every strategist in the U.S government sees the picture like this, or is willing to contemplate actual war, even if they agree on this diagnosis.... but many others do prefer war as the solution, and influential ones. It seems they're winning that vote.

    As for Russia providing military aid expresso.... that ship sailed long ago. Russia should have foreseen that in the U.N when the vote came up - or when the U.S dropped the nuclear deal (used it as an excuse - what's the world gonna do about it except bitch). Kinda a tragedy how many great chess players Russia has produced yet they're always second or third fiddle in superpower power rankings. Ohh well, add it to one of Russia's many blunders. But you know that's why they're third on the power rankings at the moment and not first or second. Can't fix stupid.
    nomadski
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    Post  nomadski on Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:38 am


    @ Atlasclub

    Good analysis. The only point I add, is that Iran at this time was not at it's potential weakest point. But that this point would be reached in about a couple of years, with the blockade. Even if Russia / China provided arms, Iran wound not afford them and internal problems would increase.

    Therefore the Yanks made an error. This was probably an error by trump himself. Wanting diversion from internal political pressure. Evidence suggests the decision was his alone. The error was also about likely effect on consolidating unity in region, given General Soliemani / Mohandess popularity.

    Now Iran and Iraq have a window of opportunity given to them by this error, of a couple of years, when they can fight while under blockade. That is why they have to retaliate with full force. To defeat enemy. No chance to do a Vietnam mark two. Must be done more quickly.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:32 am

    giving a casus belli to bomb Iranian nuclear/oil cites, public gatherings & even cultural sites in retaliation:

    Trump has already said he was going to do that to Iran anyway.

    I think that Pompeo & those behind him r setting up Trump to get in more trouble so he can run for President himself.

    Even if that plan even worked the US is going to find itself hip deep in shit and no body will be wanting to go near them to help...

    BTW the problem with bunker buster bombs is that you actually have to know where the bunker is exactly, and whether the place you hit does what you think it does... because if you don't hit the right places you will only accelerate any nuclear programme they do have and give them every reason to use those damn nukes when they do get them.

    And an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities can only be responded to in kind... Israeli nuclear facilities...

    If Americans think they can just precisely take out Irans nuclear capabilites in a quick decisive stroke then you need to ask yourself... why haven't they done it before now? Why waste time with negotiations and deals that they break anyway... why not just steam roller your way in and do what you want... like Syria like Iraq like Afghanistan like Libya. Well have a look at those countries and be realistic in your assessment in how well these things have gone in the past. What are the chances of them getting it right in Iran?

    Iran is in the position of thorn in their side because of the results of their actions in the region destabilising and destroying countries creating a need for help... help offered and accepted willingly from Iran and a lesser extent from Russia (Russia has played an important role in Syria and to a much lessor extent in Afghanistan where their mediation seems to be the only chance of a solution there).

    It was US actions in the Middle East that thrust Iran into a position of influence and power in the region and now the US and Israel and Saudi Arabia are butt hurt about it...

    China has offered support... which is totally predictable... they don't normally interfere, but they are investing big money on land and sea based shipping routes from Asia to Europe and several of their routes go through Iran... and I wouldn't put it past the US to deliberately attack a port or other infrastructure project to damage that programme....
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion on Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:49 am

    Trump has already said he was going to do that to Iran anyway.
    It only a threat at this point, if Iran successfully retaliates for the general's killing.


    China ..investing big money on land and sea based shipping routes from Asia to Europe and several of their routes go through Iran...
    India & Russia also need Iranian ports & railroads as big $ & time saving shortcut in their trade with each other & N. Europe.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:50 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
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    Post  mnztr on Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:11 am

    So is there a good summary of Irans capabilities? WHat can they strike with ballistic missiles and also their KH-55 copies. Do they have enough of these? 500? 1000? What are the most likely targets? US Embassy in Israel?
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    Post  par far on Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:57 am

    PapaDragon wrote:
    Dima wrote:.....It is exactly morons like these inside Russia that have plagued Russia's ability to see things with clarity and plan long term!

    Like Soviets were sticking their dicks out for any clown on this planet and routinely got fu*ked as a thank you? Good plan, totally worked the first time

    And this is same Iran that refused to allow Russia to station bombers in their country to fight terrorists that were threatening Iran

    Top grade ally to throw yourself on the grenade for right there  lol1



    Dima wrote:.....Get as much S-300/400 and medium and short-range AD system as possible from Russia.

    Agreed

    Payment in advance and in full.

    US dollars or gold only, none of that oil, gas, loan or credit BS



    Dima wrote:....Does Russia have the balls to sell them is the real question.

    Of course... as soon as arms embargo expires in six months

    Naturally Iran could have bought those goodies before embargo but that would require actually planning to fight a war plus they didn't want to upset their preferred US and EU luxury merchandise providers



    jhelb wrote:....Iran should target corporate america...

    They should target many tings but they won't because they don't have the balls for it

    Usually they would send some unmarked nutjobs to blow themselves up somewhere and pretend they don't know nuffin

    But they can't do that now because they know that Orange Orangutan will light them up the moment something funny happens

    So they will just huff and puff and bend over and take it until things quiet down



    Why would Russia use the US dollar when, when the US is sanctioning Russia?

    It was the Russia that agreed to the oil for goods because it benefited Russia(Russia gets to sell its goods while it gave the middle finger to Uncle Scumbag), why would Russia stop it now when it is working well for both countries?

    If Russia wanted to trade in gold, Iran could do this as well because Iran and India have traded in gold before.

    As for trading in US dollar, why would Russia do that fuck Trump.


    Last edited by par far on Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:16 am; edited 1 time in total
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    Post  par far on Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:12 am

    ATLASCUB wrote:2 posters you should ignore for better reading: Papa and Ariste...

    The U.S doesn't want War with Iran but does not mind having War with Iran.

    The U.S wants to create new rules so that they can upset the current status quo. The current status quo is not working in America's favor. Iranian militias are not weakening... Iraq is not under their control.. they lost the Syrian game and Afghanistan as well...Yemen blew up in the Saudi's face. Time is not on the U.S side. In essence they're losing the M.E. Thus, by killing Soleimani, the U.S wants to force Iran into a hard choice: War or taking it up the ass. "Taking it up the ass" means that the U.S will go after all of Iranian's proxy networks with impunity - no red lines. This will contain Iran to its own borders, and solidify the U.S position in the Middle East as the absolute King. It will keep Russia a chimp, and the Chinese in check (over 50% of the oil China consumes comes from the M.E).

    Why now? Events presented the opportunity.

    Iran was on clear path to getting out of the Nuclear Deal and then getting the bomb. The U.S had no intention of dropping the sanctions so the impasse was never going to be resolved diplomatically. Thus, once you accept that fact, you strike Iran now.

    Also the clock is ticking on the U.N moratorium that bans Iran from buying weapons from Russia/China. Thus Iran was on a path to strengthening its deterrence and capabilities. Once you accept that fact, it beckons to strike Iran now.

    Iran right now is at its relative weakest vs. what it will be in the future. The Iranian economy will, like all sanctioned countries, find stability under duress over time... as Cuba, North Korea and other sanctioned states have in the past. Thus, once you accept that fact, it beckons to strike Iran now.

    If the enemy has time on their side - you strike them now . Better now before they become even stronger, and become a bigger headache.

    Naturally, not every strategist in the U.S government sees the picture like this, or is willing to contemplate actual war, even if they agree on this diagnosis.... but many others do prefer war as the solution, and influential ones. It seems they're winning that vote.

    As for Russia providing military aid expresso.... that ship sailed long ago. Russia should have foreseen that in the U.N when the vote came up - or when the U.S dropped the nuclear deal (used it as an excuse - what's the world gonna do about it except bitch). Kinda a tragedy how many great chess players Russia has produced yet they're always second or third fiddle in superpower power rankings. Ohh well, add it to one of Russia's many blunders. But you know that's why they're third on the power rankings at the moment and not first or second. Can't fix stupid.


    You are spot on ignoring the two specific posters.

    You are analysis is good but one think I don't agree on is the Russia part. Russia was already under sanctions herself.

    One of the main reasons I think that General Qassem Soleimani(may peace be upon him) was assassinated because the Saudis wanted out of the Yemen war.

    From the reports the Prime Minister of Iraq invited General Qassem Soleimani because the Saudis asked the Iraq prime Minister to do it for them. The Saudis most likely wanted to represent General Qassem Soleimani with a peace plan for Yemen but the Zionists did not want this and they had General Qassem Soleimani assassinated.

    After General Qassem Soleimani was assassinated, the Houthis pulled out of the peace talks with the Saudis (the Houthis had no choice). This was exactly what the Zionists wanted.

    I am getting this from all the research I have done online(it is online so we cannot be 100% sure.)

    As for what Iran should do now:

    The best thing that Iran can do and I mean the very best thing that Iran should do, is what General Qassem Soleimani went to Iraq to do when he was invited by the Iraqi Prime Minister by the request of the Saudis and that is reach out to the Saudis and see if they want peace. This would blow up in the Zionists face.

    General Qassem Soleimani would have loved for the war in Yemen to end so the suffering Yemeni people would end, hopefully of this was the case, than Iran makes it happen.

    If the Saudis do not agree than Iran should start arming all their proxies with the best weapons that Iran has but I think the Saudis want out of Yemen and they asked the Iraq prime Minister to help them and it was General Qassem Soleimani, that went to see the peace proposal.
    GarryB
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    US-Iran standoff 2019- - Page 38 Empty Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

    Post  GarryB on Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:48 am

    Iran is poor. USA is rich. If you believe any european country would chose Iran over UsA then you are naive.

    The US is rich for a reason and not because of its generosity to its trade partners.

    The EU are followers... sheeple... the US loves them because they do as they are told... just like Japan and Australia and New Zealand.

    Russia and China and Iran are different... they think independently and don't jump on command... they decide for themselves what is in their interests and then they act on those interests.

    That's why I believe that Putin (and I am a HUGE supporter of his all these years),
    run his historic purpose and should hand the leadership to a young lion that is less indirect and prosaic.
    Time to step up a gear, be active, dictate the terms, give no shit about the European vassals and spit western culture in the face.

    Why?

    Western culture is in the process of eating itself... pretty soon there is going to be a backlash... a reset... with all this going on in the west there is no reason for Russia to rock the boat... there is no benefit for them in a conflict with the west... military or economic... the US and EU have been wielding a sanction stick for the better part of the last decade or so... they got serious in 2014 when their plan for a coup in the Ukraine both worked in removing the existing government but failed in every other way in making ukraine a strong western ally sharing a border with Russia and providing them with a nice new NATO base in Sevastopol...

    Putins clever responses to actions from the west and the Ukraine have meant the economic effects have been felt just as much by the west as by Russia, and that despite some economic pain Russia has grown and developed because of this mess to be a stronger more stable country... now they grow a much larger portion of their own food and export food too, they now make their own drugs and essential medicines which will likely become a good export earner for them too.... the west was trying to cripple Russia and make her come crawling on hands and knees to beg for forgiveness and really it has made her stand up in a way she never could without western sanctions... WTO rules would have prevented tariffs to give local food growers a chance to compete with established mass production companies from the west, but sanctions have succeeded in making the difference.

    Iran needs to try to do the same... look at what they hoped to get from the west and look to India and China and Russia to get that... and develop their own capacity too so that they can help others in their current position... like Venezuela and Yemen.

    Iran should target corporate america. They are the ones who benefit the most from wars. Wipe out a few dozen big names of corporate america and us will get the message.

    They really can't win a military tit for tat conflict, they need to be smarter...

    Good idea. Identify corporate interests first in region. Non military sector. Put non military sector against military sector. If possible. And if enough targets. If not, hit what you can. War is blunt instrument.

    US contractors are making a lot of money in the region... Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, UAE... putting pressure on them... increasing their costs so it is no longer worth it being there and risking their lives represents potential success for Iran and for the local people because they are definitely not there to help anyone but themselves.

    Like Soviets were sticking their dicks out for any clown on this planet and routinely got fu*ked as a thank you? Good plan, totally worked the first time

    They can provide support without risking anything at all...

    It is in Russias interests for Iran to remain Iran as we know it now rather than the CIA puppet regime before 1979...

    And this is same Iran that refused to allow Russia to station bombers in their country to fight terrorists that were threatening Iran

    They have laws that prevent foreign powers from basing military forces on their territory... don't you wish Serbia had the same?

    Agreed

    Payment in advance and in full.

    US dollars or gold only, none of that oil, gas, loan or credit BS

    I would not accept US Dollars for anything, but Oil or gas should be fine and is readily convertible into any currency you want.

    US dollars are monopoly money... literally...

    They should target many tings but they won't because they don't have the balls for it

    Usually they would send some unmarked nutjobs to blow themselves up somewhere and pretend they don't know nuffin

    But they can't do that now because they know that Orange Orangutan will light them up the moment something funny happens

    So they will just huff and puff and bend over and take it until things quiet down

    Maybe the target should be the orange orangutan and half of the US will suddenly realise Iran is not so bad after all..... Hahahahahaha...

    The U.S doesn't want War with Iran but does not mind having War with Iran.

    I think the problem is that the US doesn't have a realistic understanding of what a war with a more significant power than Grenada or Haiti is like so they really don't want to avoid a war with Iran because they think if there is a war with Iran they will win and get everything their way and it wont spill out and spread and get totally out of control for all the forces they have based in the region.

    For Iran they don't want to fight a super power, but they really aren't being given too many choices here and one miscalculation on either side could end up setting off something neither side can finish or deal with in terms of consequences... was this assassination that miscalculation... has it happened already...

    The U.S wants to create new rules so that they can upset the current status quo. The current status quo is not working in America's favor. Iranian militias are not weakening... Iraq is not under their control.. they lost the Syrian game and Afghanistan as well...Yemen blew up in the Saudi's face. Time is not on the U.S side. In essence they're losing the M.E. Thus, by killing Soleimani, the U.S wants to force Iran into a hard choice: War or taking it up the ass. "Taking it up the ass" means that the U.S will go after all of Iranian's proxy networks with impunity - no red lines. This will contain Iran to its own borders, and solidify the U.S position in the Middle East as the absolute King. It will keep Russia a chimp, and the Chinese in check (over 50% of the oil China consumes comes from the M.E).

    I agree with your assessment and logic, but the obvious problem is the big elephant in the room... the US isn't in the position of superiority it thinks it has and US forces are strung out and vulnerable as hell... and a good muslim and anal sex gives but never receives if given the opportunity...

    Iran was on clear path to getting out of the Nuclear Deal and then getting the bomb. The U.S had no intention of dropping the sanctions so the impasse was never going to be resolved diplomatically. Thus, once you accept that fact, you strike Iran now.

    The only guarantee they had that Iran was not developing nuclear weapons was the deal the US tore up and pissed all over... striking now just before a US presidential election is going to tie their hands and lead to all sorts of shit that the US is simply not ready to deal with... this is going to seriously end in tears.... big orange crocodile tears...

    Also the clock is ticking on the U.N moratorium that bans Iran from buying weapons from Russia/China. Thus Iran was on a path to strengthening its deterrence and capabilities. Once you accept that fact, it beckons to strike Iran now.

    That moratorium is tied to the deal that the US has backed out of... If Iran backs out of it now it is null and void and Russia and China can sell what they choose to sell to Iran with no limits or ties...

    A US attack would be direct justification for Russia and China to supply Iran with weapons to defend itself from American aggression.

    Naturally, not every strategist in the U.S government sees the picture like this, or is willing to contemplate actual war, even if they agree on this diagnosis.... but many others do prefer war as the solution, and influential ones. It seems they're winning that vote.

    It doesn't matter that the best choice for the US and the world was for the US to just abide by the agreement they signed, but actually trying to attack Iran is the dumbest move they could make so of course it is also the most likely move they will make...

    Kinda a tragedy how many great chess players Russia has produced yet they're always second or third fiddle in superpower power rankings.

    Their problem is not that they don't know how to play... they only have a limited number of pieces, while the US spends three quarters of a trillion dollars every year on new pieces... they have so many most of the time they don't even have a quarter of them on the board, and they also don't abide by the rules of the game... they winge and moan if other players don't play to their moral rules, but they don't feel themselves to be limited by the rules of chess or their own rules of morality.

    Makes the game much harder, but as you say... they are skillful players in a much better position than other players playing against the entire western hemisphere...

    Ohh well, add it to one of Russia's many blunders. But you know that's why they're third on the power rankings at the moment and not first or second. Can't fix stupid.

    No you can't fix stupid but the western public keep voting them in to power... all Russia can do is bide its time and take its chances when they present... like saving Syria and the Crimea...

    It was the Russia that agreed to the oil for goods because it benefited Russia(Russia gets to sell its goods while it gave the middle finger to Uncle Scumbag), why would Russia stop it now when it is working well for both countries?

    Exactly... Oil and gas are valuable commodities that can be sold to anyone on the international market, while the US dollar is a promise to keep printing tokens that might suddenly become worthless... even big western companies are realising the value of the US dollar cannot remain as it is used as a weapon so countries stop using it to protect them selves from its misuse... and as their debt increases what are they going to do to pay it when newly printed US dollars are no longer accepted around the world... lets face it... they need a good war soon... China and Russia are too big and powerful... that means North Korea and Iran and North Korea has nukes...

    If the Saudis do not agree than Iran should start arming all their proxies with the best weapons that Iran has but I think the Saudis want out of Yemen and they asked the Iraq prime Minister to help them and it was General Qassem Soleimani, that went to see the peace proposal.

    If Iran can get good terms from the Saudis regarding Yemen then that is good news for the region, but while I don't like to see Yemen suffer I think it was good for the region all round for the Saudis to bleed so openly... they thought they could fix the problem easily with force... a bit like the US in Iran and the US in Iraq and the US in Afghanistan and the US in Syria and the US everywhere it sends troops...
    Isos
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    US-Iran standoff 2019- - Page 38 Empty Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

    Post  Isos on Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:47 am


    ELINT News
    @ELINTNews
    ·
    6 min
    #BREAKING: 35 Iranian killed after massive stampede at burial ceremony of assassinated Iranian general Soleimani
    JohninMK
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    US-Iran standoff 2019- - Page 38 Empty Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

    Post  JohninMK on Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:11 am

    Does this look like a man who is still convinced that he did the right thing?

    US-Iran standoff 2019- - Page 38 C

    http://thesaker.is/is-the-chairman-of-the-jcs-freaking-out-answer-he-should-and-he-is/
    jhelb
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    US-Iran standoff 2019- - Page 38 Empty Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

    Post  jhelb on Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:30 pm

    nomadski wrote:@ Jhleb

    Good idea. Identify corporate interests first in region. Non military sector. Put non military sector against military sector. If possible. And if enough targets. If not, hit what you can. War is blunt instrument.

    Zeinab Soleimani is a US citizen herself, isn't it ? She used to live in the US.

    https://twitter.com/ShukriyaBradost/status/1213881990640021506?s=20


    Last edited by jhelb on Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:49 pm; edited 1 time in total
    nomadski
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    US-Iran standoff 2019- - Page 38 Empty Re: US-Iran standoff 2019-

    Post  nomadski on Tue Jan 07, 2020 1:48 pm

    @ GarryB

    "......... They really can't win a military tit for tat conflict, they need to be smarter..." Why not? They may have superior air power, but they are outnumbered in Army and Navy useless. Can not come close. Even if they rely on bigger body count, still Iran can win. I realise if you are a soldier in yank Army, reality is very hard to accept.

    "......... US contractors are making a lot of money in the region... Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, UAE... putting pressure on them... increasing their costs so it is no longer worth it being there and risking their lives represents potential success for Iran and for the local people because they are definitely not there to help anyone but themselves......... "  Even if there were many fat cats we could sacrifice, still this political process in America  is unpredictable and takes a long time to cause the military industry to withdraw. There is no time for this.

    "........ miscalculation on either side could end up setting off something neither side can finish........ " Iran is closer to the finish line. Without ME oil, everything comes to a halt.

    "...... If Iran can get good terms from the Saudis regarding Yemen........ " If Yemen blockade not lifted. Iran should liberate them by direct land attack through Arabia. In the second southern phase of war.


    @ ISOS

    ".... 35 Iranian killed after massive stampede at burial ceremony of assassinated Iranian general......"  They should Bury him today in private. Only family to attend. Enough of parading body around. People then can attend grave later on to pay respects. Today is a good day to be buried. Has great significance.


    @ Jhleb


    "...... Zeinab Soleimani is a US citizen herself, isn't it ? She used to live in the US.......... " Even if true. Then she should renounce citizenship and burn passport.

    Since plans are being considered. I resubmit my plan. The war should start immediately. The first phase should aim to drive out Yanks bases from, Afghanistan, R. of. AZER, Iraq, Syria. To connect Iran to China to Europe. A physical safe area from yank attack. National forces and Iranian troops maintaining order. This first phase should be followed by a pause to allow the Yanks to remove blockade. If blockade not lifted, the second phase should target yank bases to the south of PG region and liberate Yemen. The entire operation not exceed one year.

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