GarryB wrote:Your list is interesting, but is more a list of all potential aircraft... ignoring what has a chance and what does not.
Instead of taking data from tables, you should be reading up about the planes as well and that would tell you what is a shot in the dark idea with no real chance of becoming a viable alternative, and what was very promising but still likely wont be made, and what is both viable and supported by the people who actually make planes and has actual contracts to be made.
More importantly you need to realise that politics and economics are just as important as performance.
Performance alone would mean the An-70 would already be in full production and in service with the Russian military... they took part in the design and it is pretty much exactly what they wanted... but politics has gotten in the way and now the solution is looking like it is going to be the upgraded Il-476... which was going to be replaced by the An-70.... as the 50 ton payload transport.
Personally I think the Il-476 is a much better aircraft so I don't think it is a bad thing overall, but for the people who were going to earn a living making the aircraft, it might not be such a good thing... but as many of them and those making the engines are Ukrainian and hate Russians, I am not losing sleep over the incompetence of their leadership and the consequences for their country.
No GarryB, no, I ignored not what aircraft has a chance and what not. I just analyzed it:
- Exposing the reality of the Russian Armed forces almost coincident with the successful Russia aircrafts: https://www.russiadefence.net/t4312p225-russian-transport-aircraft-fleet-vta#212784
- Exposing the recent and current reality of the Russian civil market and in which cathegories is the real demand: https://www.russiadefence.net/t7684p75-utility-auxilliary-aircrafts-in-ruaf#234643
- Exposing the reality of the size cathegories that are failing for the different roles, with references to the different cases that succeed not: https://www.russiadefence.net/t4312p75-russian-transport-aircraft-fleet-vta#189143
To note that most of these projects had nice plans that have not been becoming real, and to note that many of these projects are of companies included in the United Aricraft Corporation, but it made not them successfull.
- Exposing also the list of projects with good prospect, which development would be most important in order to complete the current new generation of Russian armament and equipment of the first quarter of the XXI century, in adition to the Mi-38, Yak-152 and the rest of successfull projects of the generation:https://www.russiadefence.net/t7032-state-armament-program-2018-2027#204557
eehnie wrote:Ka-60/62 (in the Che-22 10th size class with around 2.5 tons payload)
Tu-330 (in the Tu-204/214 5th size class with around 40 tons payload).
Mi-46/AHL (in the An-72/71/74 7th size class with around 15 tons payload).
Il-106/PTS Ermak 80 (in the An-22 3rd size class with around 80 tons payload).
Il-276 (in the An-10/12 6th size class with around 20 tons payload).
PTS Ermak 160 (in the An-124 2nd size class with around 160 tons payload).
Tu-304/Frigate Freejet (in the Il-62 4th size class for double configuration: 1 mid passenger capacity + long range, 2 high passenger capacity + mid range).
New Aircraft (in the Il-76/78 Be-A50 4th size class with around 60 tons payload).
CRAIC CR929 (in the Il-86/80/96 3rd size class for high passenger capacity + long range).
Ka-40 Minoga (in the Ka/27/28/29/31/32/35 9th size class with around 5 tons payload).
New Helicopter (in the Mi-26/27 6th size class with around 20 tons payload.
MS-21/Yak-242 (in the Tu-204/214 5th size class for mid passenger capacity + mid range).
- Exposing the list of projects of the successfull categories that would be redundant at this point, but have the option of becoming the basis for future developments of the future generation of Russian armament and equipment of the second quarter of the XXI Century:https://www.russiadefence.net/t7032p50-state-armament-program-2018-2027#213501
eehnie wrote:Tu-334 (airliner aircraft in the Su-SJ-100 6th size class)
Tu-230 (transport aircraft in the An-10/12 6th size class)
Ka-102 (helicopter in the Mi-6/10/22 7th size class
Ka-92 (helicopter in the Ka-27/28/29/31/32/35 9th size class
Ka-90 (helicopter in the Ka-27/28/29/31/32/35 9th size class
Mi-X1 (helicopter in the Ka-27/28/29/31/32/35 9th size class)
Mi-54 (helicopter in the Mi-Ansat 11th size class)
Ka-118 (helicopter in the Ka-226 12th size class)
At this point the alone aircraft in the successfull categories which development I do not consider conceptually oriented to a modern demand would be the Be A-40/42
. And as consequence, in my opinion, is the most likely to fail definitely.
The difference between the number of not successfull projects in the size categories marked as successfull and unsuccessfull for every main role is really big.
- And finally exposing the consequences of the weakest politically influenced contracts:https://www.russiadefence.net/t7032p125-state-armament-program-2018-2027#234248
Nothing of this is casual, and the Il-112
and the TVS 2DTS
have strong market trends against that the gouvernment of Russia is not forced to break entering very likely in economic loses, when they have at this point an alternative offer of competent helicopters that are prefered by the markets and by the Russian Armed Forces. The helicopters have their own flaws for combat purposes, but as small airliner or transport auxiliary aircrafts are stronger in overall terms.
Taking into account the new projects with good prospect, the gouvernment of Russia has also the option of placing the production of some new aircrafts and helicopters in the factories that today need better options to produce, without affecting to the natural replacement succession of the models produced in other factories (as example it would be logical to assign to VASO Voronezh the production of he CRAIC CR929 as successor of the Il-86/80/96):
- Beriev Taganrog (Aircrafts): Several options, Tu-330, Il-106/PTS Ermak 80, Il-276, Tu-304/Frigate Freejet.
- UZGA Yekaterinburg (Helicopters): Mi-46/AHL for Russian and other export markets.
- Aviakor Samara (Aircrafts): Several options, Tu-330, Il-106/PTS Ermak 80, Il-276, Tu-304/Frigate Freejet.
And very likely Russia will need to find new factories to produce UAVs (including combat UAVs).