GarryB, you try to argue against every real evidence. Nothing that agrees with the reality of market.
The argument of the crisis of the 1990s is not valid at this point, when we see some modern aircrafts also succeeding and surpassing clearly the 50 units produced completed even in early stages of its cycle of life. The Su-Superjet100, Yak-130, Mi-Ansat, Ka-226 and Il-103 surpassed this level of sales in this time of crisis. Other previous models like the Mi-8 family, Ka-27 family, Mi-26/27, Il-76, Tu-204/214 reached it, and even the Tu-154 (predecessor of the Tu-204/214) almost reached this level of 50 units produced completed since 1994, despite the competence of the Tu-204/214.
All them are included in this scheme, previously commented, and fit almost all the cathegories:
eehnie wrote:https://www.russiadefence.net/t4312p250-russian-transport-aircraft-fleet-vta#212784Between the 6 biggest cathegories aircrafts are dominant. Between the following 6 cathegories the helicopters would be dominant despite to be not present in all the cathegories, taking into account the success of the Mi-26/27 and the Mi-6/10 (bigger than the success of the An-72/71/74, with higher number of units produced). And in the smallest cathegory trainer aircrafts would be dominant. In the future I would expect:
- Transport aircrafts to be successful in the 2nd to 6th cathegories (since 20 tons payload).
- Airliner aircrafts to be successful in the 3rd to 6th cathegories (since 95-100 passengers + mid range >5000Km).
- Helicopters to be successful in the 6th to 12th cathegories (until 20 tons payload).
- Trainer aircrafts to be successful in the 9th and 13th cathegories.
The success is uncertain, even unlikely, for the rest of the options. As overall rule, I would avoid to invest on them.
I only miss from the list the Il-62, Il-86/80/96 and the An-124.
But then we can also look at the foreign aircrafts that have been most important for the Russian customers. Exposing the fleets of the most important Russian civil customers (airlines and air cargo companies), we see:
https://www.favt.ru/public/materials//e/b/8/9/5/eb89549831e6b870264709b135c089a7.pdf
https://www.favt.ru/public/materials//a/4/6/3/b/a463b5ebe5e2ef4c577c261652a38707.pdf
AEROFLOT (Russian stage): 1st Airliner, 2nd Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Aeroflot-Russian-Airlines + https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Aeroflot-Cargo + https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Aeroflot-Nord + https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Aeroflot-Don
Airbus A310: 14 always current+[recent]historic (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
Airbus А319: 15 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
Airbus A320: 93 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
Airbus A321: 51 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Airbus A330: 22 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
Boeing:737: 88 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 767: 13 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
Boeing 777: 19 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
McDonnell Douglas DC-10/MD-11: 11 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
(An-124: 3)
(Il-86/80/96: 10)
(Su-Superjet: 59)
(Tu-134: 1 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory))
(Tu-204/214: 3)
(Yak-42/142: 1 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory))
AIRBRIDGECARGO: 1st Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/AirBridgeCargo
Boeing 737: 1 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 747: 29 (in the An-124 size cathegory)
ROSSIYA: 2nd Airliner, 5th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Rossiya-Russian-Airlines
Airbus А319: 31 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
Airbus А320: 14 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 737: 28 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 747: 9 (in the An-124 size cathegory)
Boeing 767: 3 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
Boeing 777: 10 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
(An-124: 2)
(Il-62: 1)
(Il-86/80/96: 4)
(Tu-154: 1 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory))
(Tu-204/214:5 )
An-148/158/178: 6 (in the An-72/71/74
size cathegory) All historic after sale)
S7AIRLINES: 3rd Airliner, 4th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/S7-Siberia-Airlines
Airbus A310: 9 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
Airbus A319: 20 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
Airbus A320: 25 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Airbus A321: 8 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 737: 35 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 767: 2 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
(Tu-204/214: 2 )
Embraer ERJ-170: 17 (in the An-72/71/74
size cathegory)
VOLGA-DNEPR AIRLINES: 3rd Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Volga-Dnepr
(An-124: 14)
(Il-76: 6)
URAL AIRLINES: 4th Airliner, 9th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Ural-Airlines
Airbus A319: 7 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
Airbus A320: 28 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Airbus A321: 16 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
UTAIR: 5th Airliner, 6th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/UTair-Aviation
Airbus A321: 12 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 737: 56 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 757: 9 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 767: 9 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
(Tu-134: 1 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory))
(Tu-154: 2 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory))
ATR 42/72 30 (in the An-24/26/30/32
size cathegory)
Bombardier CRJ-100 Series: 15 (in the An-24/26/30/32
size cathegory)
POBEDA: 6th Airliner 17th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Pobeda
Boeing:737: 21 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
GLOBUS: 7th Airliner 10th Air-Cargo "Global Airline Guide 2017 (Part Two)". Airliner World (November 2017): 30.
Boeing:737: 21 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
(Tu-154: ? (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory))
ROYAL FLIGHT: 7th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Royal-Flight
Boeing:737: 2 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 757: 7 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 767: 3 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
AZUR AIR: 8th Airliner https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Azur-Air
Boeing:737: 6 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 757: 10 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 767: 9 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
Boeing 777: 1 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
AVIASTAR-TU: 8th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Aviastar
Boeing 757: 1 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
(An-124: 1)
(Tu-204/214: 11 )
NORDWIND AIRLINES: 9th Airliner 27th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Nordwind-Airlines
Airbus A320: 1 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
Airbus A321: 13 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Airbus A330: 4 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
Boeing:737: 15 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 757: 9 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 767: 13 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
Boeing 777: 9 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
VIM-AVIA: 10th Airliner 12th Air-Cargo https://www.planespotters.net/airline/VIM-Airlines
Airbus А319: 4 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
Airbus A330: 2 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
Boeing:737: 3 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 757: 15 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 767: 2 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
Boeing 777: 14 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
TOTAL: Top 10 Airliner + Top 10 Air-Cargo (2017: 83.36% Airliner + 90.99% Air-Cargo market share) Boeing:737: 276 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Airbus A320: 161 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
Airbus A321: 100 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Airbus А319: 77 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory)
(Su-Superjet: 59)
Boeing 767: 54 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
Boeing 777: 53 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
Boeing 757: 51 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory)
Boeing 747: 38 (in the An-124 size cathegory)
ATR 42/72 30 (in the An-24/26/30/32
size cathegory)
Airbus A330: 28 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
Airbus A310: 23 (in the Il-62 size cathegory)
(Tu-204/214: 21)
(An-124: 20)
Embraer ERJ-170: 17 (in the An-72/71/74
size cathegory)
Bombardier CRJ-100 Series: 15 (in the An-24/26/30/32
size cathegory)
(Il-86/80/96: 14)
McDonnell Douglas DC-10/MD-11: 11 (in the Il-86/80/96 size cathegory)
(Il-76: 6 (in the Il-62 size cathegory))
An-148/158/178: 6 (in the An-72/71/74
size cathegory) All historic after sale)
(Tu-154: 3 (in the Tu-204/214 size cathegory))
(Tu-134: 2 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory))
(Il-62: 1)
(Yak-42/142: 1 (in the Su-SuperJet100 size cathegory))
TOTAL BY SIZE CATHEGORY: Top 10 Airliner + Top 10 Air-Cargo (2017: 83.36% Airliner + 90.99% Air-Cargo market share)
5th Size Cathegory (Tu-204/214): 451
6th Size Cathegory (Su-Superject100): 300
3rd Size Cathegory (Il-86/80/96): 106
4th Size Cathegory (Il-62, Il-76): 84
2nd Size Cathegory (An-124): 58
8th Size Cathegory (An-24/26/30/32): 45
7th Size Cathegory (An-72/71/74): 23
1st zize Cathegory (An-225): 0
9th Size Cathegory (Yak-130): 0
10th Size Cathegory (Che-22, L-410): 0
11th Size Cathegory (An-2/4/6): 0
12th Size Cathegory (Ka-226): 0
13th Size Cathegory (Yak-52): 0This minimum research is enough to see which are the size cathegories with stronger demand and with bigger capability of generating revenues for the United Aircraft Corporation. This is a model that not only affects to Russia, is a model shared worldwide. The origin of this model of air transport is based in the costs and profitability, and the cost analysis in the auxiliary air transport is something that the Russian Armed Forces, share with civil companies. This is why analysis of priorities for the Russian Armed Forces agree with this reality:
eehnie wrote:According to it, this would be the order of priority for auxiliary aircrafts and helicopters:
0.- Su-SJ100 (I expect some order from the Russian Armed Forces in the short term).
1.- Ka-60/62 (in the Che-22 10th size class with around 2.5 tons payload)
2.- Tu-330 (in the Tu-204/214 5th size class with around 40 tons payload).
3.- Mi-46/AHL (in the An-72/71/74 7th size class with around 15 tons payload).
4.- Il-106/PTS Ermak 80 (in the An-22 3rd size class with around 80 tons payload).
5.- Il-276 (in the An-10/12 6th size class with around 20 tons payload).
6.- PTS Ermak 160 (in the An-124 2nd size class with around 160 tons payload).
7.- Tu-304/Frigate Freejet (in the Il-62 4th size class for double configuration: 1 mid passenger capacity + long range, 2 high passenger capacity + mid range).
8.- New Aircraft (in the Il-76/78 Be-A50 4th size class with around 60 tons payload).
9.- CRAIC CR929 (in the Il-86/80/96 3rd size class for high passenger capacity + long range).
10.- Ka-40 Minoga (in the Ka/27/28/29/31/32/35 9th size class with around 5 tons payload).
11.- New Helicopter (in the Mi-26/27 6th size class with around 20 tons payload.
12.- MS-21/Yak-242 (in the Tu-204/214 5th size class for mid passenger capacity + mid range).
In the previous data about leading companies, as example, you will see the reason of why the Ministry of Industry is giving high priority to the MS-21/Yak-242. It is a project of high civil interest despite to be of lower military interest (the Russian Armed Forces order still the Tu-204/214 unlike the civil customers that moved to foreign models). It is right, and the Russian Armed Forces need to do nothing to get the aircraft available.
In overall terms, the reality emerges easily, and this is the real problem of your argument, GarryB. The real data do not agree with your comments.
The crisis has been real for all, but some models of some cathegories resisted it better, and are exiting of the crisis stronger. The market is not like it was in 1990, and the recovery will not give as result a restoration of the situation of 1990. And this has been also a mistake in the words of Vladimir79, blaming of the weak demand of small aircrafts only to the crisis.
The data in support of the supposed demand of the Il-112 (8th Size Cathegory) is weak, because of its own demand and because of the demand in the cathegories around is still weaker. It is very difficult to make this aircraft a success.
And the case of the TVS 2DTS (10th Size Cathegory is weaker still. Do you want to know how many and which aircrafts reached 200 units produced completed in the Russian environment in the period 1994-2018 (both included)? In these 25 years, between the Russian aircrafts and helicopters only the Mi-8 family, that has also a combat component, reached 200. In the following years someone else will do, but is fairly difficult.
Instead of talking about the last village of Siberia in order to try to justify the development of marginal projects out of the interest of the main custormers, would be more interesting for the United Aircraft Corporation to be focused in the aircrafts used by most of the population, because these models also fit well the needs of air transport of the Russian Armed Forces in most of the cases.