The demand of this kind of aircrafts declined in the 1990s, but has been lower still in the 2000s and the 2010s. You can analize the sales of every case of aircraft that in Included, and you can see how all them failed commercially, not only in the size cathegory of the An-2/4/6, but in all the size cathegories between roughly 2.2 and 45,6 tons of Maximum Take-Off Weight. Not only that, we can see how the sales of some of the previously successful aricrafts, like the An-72/71/74 and the An-24/26/30/32, neither reached 50 aircrafts in the last 25 years.
Don't you think there could be other factors coming into play here... like the fact that since 1994 there was very little money to buy new aircraft, and in fact they probably only kept producing until 1994 is because they didn't have anything else to sell?
The workers in those factories probably didn't get their last 3 years worth of pay because they were making old designs with no updates and they were likely trying to sell them for as much as they could get for them... in a market with no money.
All the planes you are listing are Ukrainian... the Ukrainian market is tiny for such aircraft and they had even less money to buy planes with... why would an existing Russian customer buy a foreign plane (Ukrainian) when its technology was no better than the same model they bought ten or 30 years before?
All it means not only a rejection of some concrete models based on their features, it means a rejection of the whole concept. And this is not only a trend of the Russian market, is also a worldwide trend.
Poor analysis. Remote communities in Siberia aren't suddenly going to get helicopters to fly stuff in, and they wont suddenly need five times the load capacity they needed before...
If they have been using an AN-2 for the past 50 years they obviously don't have the money for a modern fully fitted airfield to support a western aircraft or a heavy aircraft...
You talk about the remaining units of the An-2 in service. The source gives reference of 1526+17 still fliying active, but also gives reference of other 13999 that are not flying active. What happened with them? Obviously a big majority of them have not been purchasing neither new units of the supposed successors, neither of the An-2/4/6 (new or used), neither of other aircrafts in the size cathegories around. The whole concept is declining strongly in these size cathegories.
You ask a question and then give an answer to suit your view.
Show us satellite imagery of tiny airstrips in backwater places being replaced by modern fully equipped airfields with paved runways and you might have a point...
You continue saying it has not been other alternative than to keep the old units running. This is not right. Here again, you have the list of local alternatives, but no-one succeeded
OK... if these planes are of no use and obsolete why are they still being used?
Why would so many companies try to make replacement aircraft if there was no future for the type?
Previous attempts to replace the An-2 have failed because there was a serious problem with them... the AN-3 failed because the turboprop engine was too expensive and complex and difficult to maintain in the field... lots of other types failed because they didn't match the performance, or were otherwise not suitable...
The fact that companies continue to try and that ancient An-2 aircraft continue to be used proves there is a role for such aircraft and every reason to make a replacement.
Also foreign options can be included:
Foreign options can certainly be included but all come up short too... as well as being prone to sanctions.
The production of the An-148/158/178 is being stopped in Russia by lack of orders:
No, production is being stopped because the Ukraine refuses to continue cooperation on production... why support the Ukraine?
All the successors of the An-24/26/30/32 have been unable to reach 50 units produced completed (this is also the Mi-38 size cathegory):
The Il-114 and Il-112 are both going into full production to replace the An-24 family in current operation in Russian military service and likely also Russian commercial service too.
All the successors of the Che-22 have been unable to reach 50 units produced completed (this is also the Ka-60/62 size cathegory), and a good number of units of the L-410 remain in stock without finding a customer that purchase them:
10th cathegory Trainer aircraft: MiG-AT http://www.airwar.ru/enc/attack/migat.html
10th cathegory Airliner aircraft: M-302 http://www.airwar.ru/enc/aliner/m302.html
10th cathegory Airliner aircraft: M-202 http://www.airwar.ru/enc/aliner/m202.html
10th cathegory Transport aircraft: TVS 2DTS https://ruslet.webnode.cz/technika/ruska-technika/letecka-technika/sibnia/tvs-2dts/
10th cathegory Transport aircraft: T-208 Eagle http://www.airwar.ru/enc/la/t208.html
The TVS-2DTS is going into production with 200 ordered aircraft to start with.... as mentioned in this thread.
All the successors of the An-2/4/6 have been unable to reach 50 units produced completed (this is also the Mi-Ansat size cathegory):
All for very good reasons... but the TVS-2DTS will be put into production and service...
Checking case per case the market reality that these models suffered and are suffering, my words are perfectly understandable.
To note that the far bigger and far more expensive An-124 surpassed 50 units produced completed.
50 years ago with Soviet aircraft all you saw were the aircraft that got into service and you never saw all the other prototypes that didn't make it... now you are seeing all the prototypes that don't make it.
Of course sometimes things make it because of political reasons instead of performance reasons... a non soviet producer of jet trainers was a purely political decision... just the same as the Mi-2 is a Russian design but was not made in the Soviet Union...
Any Ukrainian design will have no chance in the Russian military or civilian market... they simply can't be trusted for support and spares, so not only will new Ukrainian designs be eliminated from consideration, but existing Ukrainian designs will be a focus to get them out of service... or at least get them to use Russian components and engines etc.
Some people here still ignores the real data despite to have them in front of their face. They have their own narrative and nothing else matters.
The problem is that you are very selective in your data presentation, and sometimes you clearly misinterpret the data to suit your view.
A new model is emerging in a rough environment of failed bids in at least the last 25 years. The US engine is not the main problem of this model in order to succeed.
Previous failed bids are not relevant, but an American engine that could become sanctioned and unavailable really is the only actual problem for this new aircraft.
I said clearly before that both auxiliary aircrafts and helicopters must avoid contested areas. Not totally possible still, but achievable in the following 2 or 3 decades.
There is no reason why the Baikal cannot be fitted with a DIRCMS pod... in fact that could be its role flying around jamming IR guided anti aircraft missiles for UAVs to operate more safely...
I explained many times how I consider the concept of combat helicopter very likely will evolve toward unmanned technologies in order to avoid the high risks of the current use of manned combat helicopters.
Manned or unmanned wont change the risks... it just effects the potential outcomes... if you need to send a recon platform in to look at enemy forces... a manned aircraft with full self defence suite and flown with skill by a pilot protecting his own ass is more value than a straight and level flying UAV that gets shot down all the time because it is such a sitting target.
UAVs otherwise can be many times expendable material. It makes not them obsolete.
But there is the rub... to make them expendable they must be really cheap... so no DIRCMS... and no expensive equipment... which makes them less effective and less survivable.
I would expect in the future what they will actually do is use manned platforms sitting further back with long range sensors while UAVs go in... the manned platform can monitor the enemy fire and determine what system is where, while the UAVs get blown out of the sky... the data collected by the manned platform together with the close up visuals and data from the UAVs before they are destroyed can be used to launch standoff attacks and artillery attacks against positions that have revealed themselves...
The competence between aircrafts and helicopters (also aircrafts) is something like the competence between a PC and a MAC. Different systems to solve basically the same roles. In some cases aircrafts prove to be more effective, in other cases helicopters prove to be more effective. And this is the area where helicopters become dominators of the market.
No. That is totally wrong.
A better analogy would be a palm top computer and a desktop computer... a palm top computer can pretty much go anywhere you can (some models even for a swim), while desktop computers require more infrastructure... like a wall plug and a desk and chair to operate.
If you have to do hours of office work you don't use the palm top, but if you have to leave your office and go out to a client a palm top can often take the software you need without having to lug everything, or get your client to have to go to the office to see your pitch.
But my concerns on the engine and sanctions I hope that Rostec eventually fix this issue.
Perhaps the problem will fix itself... set up local production for the engine and then when the US slaps on the super heavy sanction package it keeps on harping on about you can nationalise the design and refuse to recognise US patents and copyright...
The market for these products has been and will always be there.
Which suggests production of these aircraft is long over due and will be very well received by the market... boosting transport link performance almost always boosts an economy... the Chinese had a period where they installed high speed trains in China for their internal transport needs and they found it greatly improved their internal economy...
But I think some of these projects will be put on hold till they come up with alternative engines to use cause many of them want to use western engines (For what ever god forsaken reason other than corruption) and now they wont be able to obtain them.
Licence production or steal the design... in the short term and Russian engine in 5 years time when the current engine design has been fully studied.
Super high fuel economy is not the biggest issue... even with a less efficient engine it still is better than the original...