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    Russia-Belarus Relationship

    magnumcromagnon
    magnumcromagnon

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    Post  magnumcromagnon Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:08 pm

    They we're going to regime change and assassinate Luka on May 9th! The idiot Lukashenko actually thought he could play footsie with Western snakes in the grass and not get bit?!?! Rolling Eyes

    Zenkovich: The task 1) us, it turns out, is to eliminate *#Lukashenko*; task 2) occupy, block the Internal Troops, block the riot police; task 3) to occupy several symbolic objects in the center of the city, including a radio station,TV and read an appel

    https://twitter.com/ivan8848/status/1383517726090530824

    Breaking! #Belarus' KGB and #Russia's FSB have jointly conducted a operation that led to the arrest of several opposition figures who planned to stage a violent coup to remove #Lukashenko from power and assassinate him on May 9th, CIA involved.

    https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status/1383477138393681925

    https://ria.ru/20210417/zaderzhanie-1728753029.html

    Putin in a conversation with Biden raised the issue of the preparation of an assassination attempt by the US special services on the President of Belarus, but did not receive an answer - Lukashenko

    https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1383471858985562117

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    JohninMK
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    Post  JohninMK Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:28 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    Putin in a conversation with Biden raised the issue of the preparation of an assassination attempt by the US special services on the President of Belarus, but did not receive an answer - Lukashenko

    https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1383471858985562117
    I bet he didn't get an answer. I somehow doubt that he had a briefing note on the subject. Smile
    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:03 am

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:Lukashenko commented on the results of the meeting with Putin.

    ▪ The loan to Belarus and the transfer of power were not discussed.

    ▪ It would be foolish to work on a "merger" in a unified state.

    "As an independent sovereign state we are able to build such a system of relations that this system will be stronger than even cooperation between individual regions of Russia," explained Lukashenko.

    ▪ Countries need to coordinate their actions in the economy to "not worry" about Western sanctions.

    ▪ Minsk will continue to coordinate defense and foreign policy with Moscow.

    ▪ Gazprom is invited to participate in the modernization of the company Grodno Azot.  https://t.me/sputniklive/16631


    Again he is trying to maintain his grasp to power... of course he does not want a merger, because he would be at max just a governor (probably to be kicked out at the next available election)...


    Of course it is only about power for him, that's his only concern. And about the assassination attempt, I wouldn't take anything he says too seriously. This time last year he was denying COVID.

    But by incidence I do agree with him, I don't see the need to have one superstate either and neither do most Belarussians these days. Economic and military integration, and political co-ordination is more than enough, without having a population of 10 million closely related but still distinct people from Russians, having their internal policies decided from Moscow without intermediaries.

    For those that don't know, Belarus right after the break-up of the USSR did briefly have a nationalist, anti-Russian government. It's rule was short, and Lukashenko won the only elections he ever fairly did a year or two later and put an end to it.
    But still it did happen. As far as nation-states go, Belarus and its people don't have much of a conception of one, but it's there nonetheless and should be respected.

    I remember going there back a couple years ago. A Belarussian girl I know told me that they live well, and at the very least in her view, don't have the Muslim migrant-workers that are everywhere in Russia.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Apr 18, 2021 1:53 am

    Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

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    calripson

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    Post  calripson Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:05 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:09 am

    calripson wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

    There is still time, but it is running out and fast. Enough of the older population is still alive.

    But you might be right in a sense with Luka against it. By the time he is out of power willingly, it will then be too late.

    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:39 am

    calripson wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

    Exactly. Back then there was at least the prospect of a union state, and earlier in the Gorbachev days, for a decentralized USSR.

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    calripson wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

    There is still time, but it is running out and fast. Enough of the older population is still alive.

    But you might be right in a sense with Luka against it. By the time he is out of power willingly, it will then be too late.


    It's still possible, but it can't be based on Russian nationalism; that ship sailed not 20 years ago, but in 1917.

    If Russia forms a proper Eurasian Union, then yes Belarus can be part of that same as Russia itself. But as for actually incorporating Belarus into Russia; it's simply too big a distinct population, even if only slightly distinct. They've had their own republic since the formation of the USSR, their own recognized language, literature, theaters, universities - they're not going to want to go back to being provinces directly controlled by Moscow (or St. Petersburg, as it was back then) without at least their own capital city and national institutes.
    Becoming a bunch of seperate oblasts grouped as a federal district with expanded powers would offer too little and would invite calls from other federal districts for the same amount of power.
    While retaining Belarus as a republic within Russia as a subject of the federation sounds a little silly; it's got way too big an economy and a large population spread over much territory to be one single administrative unit.
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    gbu48098

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    Post  gbu48098 Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:05 am

    calripson wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

    These things happen on a century/half of it scale time and opinions mean nothing more and more. Manipulation is the word rather that is interesting these days. At the moment Russia has better return with Belarus on its own rather than in. When the time comes as always they will repossess their lands going by historical data.

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    ATLASCUB

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    Post  ATLASCUB Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:25 pm

    Flaring up war in the Donbass while couping Belarus. A crisis for lil Putin on two fronts.

    Not a bad 1-2 punch combo by the Americans. Execution leaves a bit to be desired.

    Any way all of this settles... regardless of "ideal" success... they'll recalibrate and try again, and again, and again. Considering there is little deterrence done by Russia's leadership other than bitching to the sky why wouldn't they try again? You only got Detente when the Vietnam War was crippling the U.S internally. It's a really simple equation.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:33 pm

    flamming_python wrote:
    calripson wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

    Exactly. Back then there was at least the prospect of a union state, and earlier in the Gorbachev days, for a decentralized USSR.

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    calripson wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

    There is still time, but it is running out and fast. Enough of the older population is still alive.

    But you might be right in a sense with Luka against it. By the time he is out of power willingly, it will then be too late.


    It's still possible, but it can't be based on Russian nationalism; that ship sailed not 20 years ago, but in 1917.

    If Russia forms a proper Eurasian Union, then yes Belarus can be part of that same as Russia itself. But as for actually incorporating Belarus into Russia; it's simply too big a distinct population, even if only slightly distinct. They've had their own republic since the formation of the USSR, their own recognized language, literature, theaters, universities - they're not going to want to go back to being provinces directly controlled by Moscow (or St. Petersburg, as it was back then) without at least their own capital city and national institutes.
    Becoming a bunch of seperate oblasts grouped as a federal district with expanded powers would offer too little and would invite calls from other federal districts for the same amount of power.
    While retaining Belarus as a republic within Russia as a subject of the federation sounds a little silly; it's got way too big an economy and a large population spread over much territory to be one single administrative unit.
    i don't know, Bielorussians are way closer to a Russian from Moscow or Saint Petersburg than a resident of Kazan is to a Moscow resident. And Kazan is similar in inhabitants to Minsk (Tatarstan as a whole has about one half of the inhabitants of Bielorussia, btw). So if Russia was able to keep Tatarstan in the worse period in the 90s, I do not see why they should not be able to reintegrate Bielorussia. And by the way, yes Bielorussia was an "independent Republic" of the USSR, but all of the important decisions were taken in Moscow. Their independence until 1991 was no more then the one of Texas inside the US or the one of Bayern (Baviera) inside Germany. Yes now they had their sort of independent state for about 30 years, but it is not a self sustaining state. Either it is eventually reintegrated into Russia, or Russia will have to waste billions of dollars in propping their economy with minimal return (or it will become another anti Russian state like Poland)

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:52 pm

    Oh God, the drivel about precious ex-Soviet republics "without which Russia can't live" again.   We have the endless BS about how
    Ukraine is vital for Russia and now we have the same for Belorus.

    Having a festering cyst inside Russia is in no way healthy for Russia.   If Belorus feels that it is distinct and wants to rob Russia of
    its history, just like Ukraine, it can go ahead.   We already have an example of this Eastern European brain disease in the case of
    FYROM which thinks that Alexander the Great was a Slav.   A pathetic statelet that needs to steal somebody else's history to
    define itself.   Lukassranko does exactly the same thing with his ancient Belorus drivel.   Belorus did not even exist as an ethnic
    identity until the Bolsheviks faked it up.   If you are going to claim that a small dialectic variation in the language makes an
    ethnic group, then England (not Wales or Scotland) needs to be carved up into several smaller states.    

    Let Belorus become a NATzO burden.   The era of territorial control for major war is long gone.   Imposing a tight border with
    barbed wire and minefields is enough to isolate the infested zone from Russia.   The cyst can then proceed to rot to nothing.
    In response to NATzO missile deployments in these failed states, Russia can deploy more 100 megaton class Poseidons and
    other seabed nuclear missiles which are impossible to track and which can neutralize any territorial "advantage" that NATzO
    thinks it gets from its installations in Ukraine and Belorus.

    The damage to Russia's economy, and thus its military capacity, from having to wipe the smelly asses of these loser states
    cannot be offset with any military value they may have to keep NATzO farther from Moscow.

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    flamming_python
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    Post  flamming_python Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:25 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:
    calripson wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

    Exactly. Back then there was at least the prospect of a union state, and earlier in the Gorbachev days, for a decentralized USSR.

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    calripson wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Not absorbing Belarus is a mistake that will cost the Russians dearly.

    Let's see if they can work it out or if once again they made such an obvious mistake.

    Russia had its chance to reincorporate Belarus 20 years ago and blew it. There is no political desire among the under 30s in Belarus for union. That ship has sailed.

    There is still time, but it is running out and fast. Enough of the older population is still alive.

    But you might be right in a sense with Luka against it. By the time he is out of power willingly, it will then be too late.


    It's still possible, but it can't be based on Russian nationalism; that ship sailed not 20 years ago, but in 1917.

    If Russia forms a proper Eurasian Union, then yes Belarus can be part of that same as Russia itself. But as for actually incorporating Belarus into Russia; it's simply too big a distinct population, even if only slightly distinct. They've had their own republic since the formation of the USSR, their own recognized language, literature, theaters, universities - they're not going to want to go back to being provinces directly controlled by Moscow (or St. Petersburg, as it was back then) without at least their own capital city and national institutes.
    Becoming a bunch of seperate oblasts grouped as a federal district with expanded powers would offer too little and would invite calls from other federal districts for the same amount of power.
    While retaining Belarus as a republic within Russia as a subject of the federation sounds a little silly; it's got way too big an economy and a large population spread over much territory to be one single administrative unit.
    i don't know, Bielorussians are way closer to a Russian from Moscow or Saint Petersburg than a resident of Kazan is to a Moscow resident. And Kazan is similar in inhabitants to Minsk (Tatarstan as a whole has about one half of the inhabitants of Bielorussia, btw). So if Russia was able to keep Tatarstan in the worse period in the 90s, I do not see why they should not be able to reintegrate Bielorussia. And by the way, yes Bielorussia was an "independent Republic" of the USSR, but all of the important decisions were taken in Moscow. Their independence until 1991 was no more then the one of Texas inside the US or the one of Bayern (Baviera) inside Germany. Yes now they had their sort of independent state for about 30 years, but it is not a self sustaining state. Either it is eventually reintegrated into Russia, or Russia will have to waste billions of dollars in propping their economy with minimal return (or it will become another anti Russian state like Poland)

    Tatarstan is similar to Belarus in a some ways; it's got a lot of industry and a large urban population, mostly Russian-speaking (even among Tatars many of them prefer Russian in the cities).

    But there's one main difference - namely that it's in the middle of Russia and surrounded by Russia; it cannot possibly exist with any sort of independence outside the will of Moscow, and what's more it cannot prosper economically unless the rest of Russia does.

    Nevertheless even Tatarstan held a referendum about sovereignty in 1992 or 1993 or so and was ostensibly moving in the direction of seperation; albeit in actuality it was mostly just a power-play to leverage some autonomy from Moscow.

    It's not by accident that it was a defined as a republic of the RSFSR, and not as a Union republic that Belarus was defined as, that had the constitutional right to hold a referendum and seperate. It wasn't an independent republic; but it did have status, it had institutions and it had an identity; which was 'equal' to that of Russia (RSFSR), not part of it.
    Your analogy would make more sense if you were to imagine Texas being disbanded and its territory divided up into several smaller states or part of existing states. I doubt many Texans would be for that.

    Tatarstan's population is only half-Tatar BTW. Now imagine a republic with over twice its population, which is also homogeneous, and that actually borders the EU. It simply doesn't sound realistic, centrifugal forces will be present and if the economy faces trouble Moscow will inevitably get the blame. Too many headaches to deal with. It's better of as an independent country with close ties to Russia, or in the future as part of some economic union project with Russia.
    lancelot
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    Post  lancelot Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:48 pm

    kvs wrote:Oh God, the drivel about precious ex-Soviet republics "without which Russia can't live" again.   We have the endless BS about how
    Ukraine is vital for Russia and now we have the same for Belorus.
    ...
    Let Belorus become a NATzO burden.   The era of territorial control for major war is long gone.   Imposing a tight border with
    barbed wire and minefields is enough to isolate the infested zone from Russia.   The cyst can then proceed to rot to nothing.
    In response to NATzO missile deployments in these failed states, Russia can deploy more 100 megaton class Poseidons and
    other seabed nuclear missiles which are impossible to track and which can neutralize any territorial "advantage" that NATzO
    thinks it gets from its installations in Ukraine and Belorus.

    The damage to Russia's economy, and thus its military capacity, from having to wipe the smelly asses of these loser states
    cannot be offset with any military value they may have to keep NATzO farther from Moscow.

    Russia has already somewhat prepared for an outcome like this.
    This is why Nord Stream 2 is being built instead of Yamal-II.
    This is why they built Nord Stream.
    This is why they built Baltic Pipeline System-I/II as an alternative to the Druzhba pipeline.
    They are decoupling from all the port and transport infrastructure around that area.

    This is why Lukhashenko is complaining they can't fudge the oil and natural gas accounting anymore.
    They got those resources at ultra-low prices while stealthily reselling them to the EU.
    Well not as much anymore.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:00 pm

    kvs wrote:Oh God, the drivel about precious ex-Soviet republics "without which Russia can't live" again.   We have the endless BS about how
    Ukraine is vital for Russia and now we have the same for Belorus.

    Having a festering cyst inside Russia is in no way healthy for Russia.   If Belorus feels that it is distinct and wants to rob Russia of
    its history, just like Ukraine, it can go ahead.   We already have an example of this Eastern European brain disease in the case of
    FYROM which thinks that Alexander the Great was a Slav.   A pathetic statelet that needs to steal somebody else's history to
    define itself.   Lukassranko does exactly the same thing with his ancient Belorus drivel.   Belorus did not even exist as an ethnic
    identity until the Bolsheviks faked it up.   If you are going to claim that a small dialectic variation in the language makes an
    ethnic group, then England (not Wales or Scotland) needs to be carved up into several smaller states.    

    Let Belorus become a NATzO burden.   The era of territorial control for major war is long gone.   Imposing a tight border with
    barbed wire and minefields is enough to isolate the infested zone from Russia.   The cyst can then proceed to rot to nothing.
    In response to NATzO missile deployments in these failed states, Russia can deploy more 100 megaton class Poseidons and
    other seabed nuclear missiles which are impossible to track and which can neutralize any territorial "advantage" that NATzO
    thinks it gets from its installations in Ukraine and Belorus.

    The damage to Russia's economy, and thus its military capacity, from having to wipe the smelly asses of these loser states
    cannot be offset with any military value they may have to keep NATzO farther from Moscow.

    Yes, let the Russians lose and lose and lose and btw the Russian economy isn't nearly as good as people here make it out to be.

    The country would cease to exist if idiotic advice like this followed
    LMFS
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    Post  LMFS Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:25 am

    Minsk: the coup failed, but it's too early to relax

    Rostislav Ishchenko

    In order to understand that something is being prepared in Belarus, you didn't have to be a genius or have exclusive information. Banal logic suggested (and I have said and written about it) that in order to hope for success, the upcoming American operation against Russia should not have been limited to an attack by Ukraine on the Donbass

    The Americans may not be highly intelligent, but (unlike their Ukrainian charges) they are able to generalize the existing experience.

    Well, the experience of 2014-15 shows that, even without the direct participation of regular Russian formations (with the limited support of republican militias that were not yet very similar to a normal army with equipment and "vacationers"), the APU suffers catastrophic defeats at an enviable rate. Since Moscow had made it clear that it would not exercise restraint in the event of a Ukrainian attack, there was no point in throwing Ukraine alone into the fray — it would have been wiped out before the Americans could start implementing their plan.

    The plan was also no secret to anyone. It was necessary to organize not just a Ukrainian-Russian war, but a war involving at least some members of the EU and NATO.

    The Poles and Balts showed their willingness to take risks, but their participation had to be somehow legendary. The Balts do not even share borders with Ukraine, and it would be difficult for Poles to explain their campaign for help, while the participants of the" Normandy format " (France and Germany), who are also Poland's senior comrades in the EU, were going to limit themselves to expressing concern and appeals for mercy.

    So, it was necessary to solve a double task: to give the Polish-Baltic limitrophes time to get involved in the conflict, and also to provide them with a convenient platform and convincing motivation for this. The attempted coup in Belarus solved both problems.

    Russia was suddenly getting another front. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the conversation in the Moscow restaurant irrefutably indicates that the conspirators did not believe that after the murderBut the power itself will fall into their hands. We are talking about the blockade of Minsk, the internment of several dozen leading politicians, the "symbolic" seizure of several buildings and appeals on TV and radio. I do not think that everything would be limited to an appeal to the people of Belarus. In such cases, the conspirators always appeal to the international community and ask for help.

    The putschists had no doubt that a significant part of the security forces would provide them with armed resistance. That is, a civil war will begin. So they tried to immediately decapitate this resistance, removing all those who could centrally manage the resistance to the coup. In addition, it was important for them that while Russia would be aware of what had happened and create a new group of troops to help the Belarusians put down the coup, the limitrofs would receive an official invitation to intervene and send troops. That is, so that not Poles enter the country where the Russian army is already located, but Russia reacts to the appearance of Polish troops in Belarus.

    The military result would not have changed — the Russian army would have stopped where the Russian leadership saw fit. But the Americans would have gained a political advantage in putting pressure on their recalcitrant Western European partners. Their interpretation of events would be as follows:
    • the Belarusian people overthrew the bloody tyrant;
    • the accomplices of tyranny unleashed a war against the rebellious people;
    • the people asked the "civilized world" for help;
    • all the neighbors of Belarus (including Ukraine) immediately responded;
    * Russia alone sent an army to suppress a popular uprising, and at the same time began aggression against freedom-loving Balts and Ukrainians (in the confusion, no one would understand who attacked whom in the Donbass, Russia would be to blame).

    It would be very difficult for Western Europeans to "disbelieve" this interpretation. Moreover, the Americans were clearly preparing to involve Georgia in the war as well. In recent weeks, there has been a lot of talk in Tbilisi about the need to return Abkhazia and Ossetia by armed means.

    The plan itself was very good. Formally, no one encroaches on Russian territory. Military operations are unfolding in the territories of Belarus, Ukraine (Donbass) and Abkhazia and Ossetia, which the West recognizes as Georgia, and Russia as independent states. The Russian army, instead of a concentrated attack on the Ukraine that attacked the Donbass, is forced to operate in the entire space from the Baltic to the Caspian Sea, and it is not rubber. It is not Ukraine that is involved in the war with Russia, but a whole coalition of six or seven countries. And they all claim that Russia attacked them. To whom do Paris and Berlin have to "believe" in this case?

    Yes, Russia will win the war, but at the cost of a complete break with Europe, which is exactly what the Americans need. And the losses, including economic ones, will be significant. And America does not feel sorry for limitrophs.

    The conspiracy was discovered by the FSB. Although the Russian secret service claims that it worked in contact with Belarusian colleagues, I strongly doubt this. First, such cooperation should have been sanctioned by Lukashenka, and he is very unreliable in terms of information. He can go out to the journalists on emotions and blurt out anything. Moreover, no one knows when and what wave of emotions will cover it.

    Secondly, the story of the detention of Russian citizens accused of plotting the overthrow of Lukashenka on the eve of the Belarusian elections in the summer showed that the KGB of Belarus is not the most reliable partner. You can talk as much as you want about the Ukrainian provocation. I readily believe that the SBU participated in the operation. But the detentions were carried out by the Belarusian KGB, and it also informed Lukashenka that these people had come to overthrow him. There are only two possible explanations: betrayal and unprofessionalism. It doesn't matter what the real one is: it would be too reckless to entrust such partners with the fate of an operation on which the prevention of a European war depends.

    The FSB reported on the detention and transfer of American visitors Zenkovich and Feduta to Belarus. But the FSB report does not say anything about the fate of two Belarusian generals with whom the opposition was negotiating. This is logical. Americans don't need to know for sure whether the generals were real traitors or FSB bait.

    In principle, before sending its emissaries to negotiate (and even to Moscow), American intelligence should not just approach potential partners, but have a full dossier on them and be absolutely sure that they are exactly who they say they are. It is clear that the Americans did not run up to every Belarusian soldier with big stars shouting: "I am an American spy! I pay good money for the murder of Lukashenka! " At least in order to start a conversation, they had to have collected substantial dirt on the object under development. The organization of a military coup and the assassination of the head of state is too serious a matter for even a simple corrupt official to agree to it. Moreover, in Belarus, the death penalty has not been abolished and is applied.

    So the generals had to be real. But the Americans can't know for sure whether they were loyal to them before they were arrested, or whether they were recruited by the FSB long ago. While they do not know this, it is difficult for them to make a correct decision about the future of the prepared Belarusian putsch. They should have received a significant part of information about the mood in the Belarusian army from the same generals. I don't think that the United States has so many sources among high-ranking Belarusian military personnel. It is this information that is key to the preparation of the coup. After all, generals only give orders, colonels, captains and majors carry them out, and in the end — ordinary soldiers. And if the latter may not know where and why they are being led, then the officers need to more or less fully explain the task. Therefore, for the coup mechanism to work, the army must be seriously hit by a wormhole.

    The Americans believed that there would be the right number of traitors among the officers of the Belarusian army. Now they need to understand: was their information accurate or was it disinformation carefully prepared for them by the FSB to lure their emissaries to Moscow?

    Why is it important that the Americans do not know exactly about the role of the Belarusian generals?

    Because if a prepared coup fails, there are two main scenarios of action:

    1. Postpone the event for an indefinite period of time and start preparing it from scratch.
    2. To force the events by giving a start to the performance earlier than planned, before the authorities managed to unwind the whole tangle.

    Americans are interested in the second option. They don't have time to wait. They are already losing to Russia and China in all directions, and you can't prepare a new coup in a month.

    After the failure of the color scenario, which was implemented in Minsk in August-September 2020, the Americans needed more than six months to put the power scenario on standby. Now the underground asset will be partially knocked out, and some of the traitors in power who have managed to maintain Lukashenka's trust so far will come under attack. In general, Russia's position in Belarus will strengthen. Lukashenka, of course, will not give up hopes of maintaining full independence, but he will not forget the attempt of his (and his family's) physical elimination to the West. The space for maneuver was significantly limited. For him, Russia is now the guarantor of preserving not power, but life.

    Of course, all traitors will not be caught, and all underground assets will not be transplanted. This has never been done before in history. But the opportunities of Americans on the Belarusian territory will be significantly reduced. So they need to hurry.

    And there is evidence that they are trying to force things. In particular, in addition to attacking Russia along the entire perimeter of the western border, it was planned to destabilize the situation inside the country. It is not surprising that Navalny's supporters planned their actions on the same dates as the Belarusian putschists planned their coup. Moreover, on May 8-9, during the days of public festivities, it would be easier for them to overestimate their numbers: there are a lot of people everywhere — go figure out who is just out for a walk and who is an oppositionist. And it is more convenient to arrange provocations in such a crowd.

    But suddenly the opposition decides to postpone their speeches to April 21. We will not wait until half a million supporters gather, they say, but we will come out right now. And yet, apart from the exposure of the Belarusian conspiracy, nothing happened. But since the activities of all the conspirators were coordinated by the Americans, the caught Belarusians can also provide material on their Russian colleagues. In addition, it is clear that the FSB has already worked on them, and if it has already worked so much on Belarusians, one can only guess how much it has worked on its own.

    I would like to emphasize once again that the Americans were preparing simultaneous performances in Belarus, Ukraine, Russia and Georgia. Therefore, if the date of the Russian opposition's speech is shifted, there is a high probability that the United States has made a choice in favor of maximum acceleration of events. But without knowing exactly what they can expect in Belarus, they cannot adequately plan their actions. Meanwhile, it was precisely the synchronicity of the speeches that gave the United States hope for success. Russia's fragmented actions will be quickly suppressed without much consequence.

    Moreover, another catastrophic defeat of the American allies in Ukraine will seriously undermine the already fading credibility of the United States. I am not even sure that Washington will be able to get an open speech from Georgia under the current circumstances. StillSaakashvili now he is chewing ties in Kiev, and the current Georgian politicians do not want to try on his experience of 2008. After all, it is one thing to get involved in a European war against Russia with the hope of success, and quite another to decide to commit suicide along with Ukraine. Meanwhile, without Belarus, giving the conflict a European character is problematic, and the situation in Minsk, which the United States considered completely controlled as early as April 15, they now do not own.

    You can retreat, realizing that it will be difficult to gather forces for a second offensive. You can decide on an adventure that is almost guaranteed to end in a catastrophic defeat for Washington. Whether America will decide to raise rates again, we will find out in the next two weeks. Delaying until May 9 in the United States is now pointless and even harmful. The longer it takes for a conspiracy to be exposed, the less likely it is that significant forces of conspirators will be able to organize and speak out, avoiding the preventive measures of the special services.

    In addition, people react differently to danger: someone (a minority) begins to defend themselves, and someone runs to surrender. There are also those who oppose their colleagues in the conspiracy, hoping that the authorities will not find out about their role. All three psychological types of conspirators are clearly visible in the example of the plot against Hitler on July 20, 1944. As soon as the conspirators found out that Hitler was still alive, most of them simply deserted, even the formal head of the field marshalErwin von Witzleben went home. Some are the same as a field marshalGunther von Kluge, began to arrest their fellow conspirators.

    Nevertheless, the danger has not yet passed. The last days of April will be critical not only for Belarus and Russia, but also for Europe and the world as a whole. The US may still try to slam the door loudly.

    https://ukraina.ru/opinion/20210419/1031166247.html

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    Post  gbu48098 Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:29 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:

    Yes, let the Russians lose and lose and lose and btw the Russian economy isn't nearly as good as people here make it out to be.

    The country would cease to exist if idiotic advice like this followed

    I think they are fine, you can't stop someone from committing suicide out of stupidity. It is exhausting. Anyone aiming for west has to be hollow in the brain now with the way things are now....Russian economy is fine objectively speaking, as a man of west I can't say life is getting better here with taxes on the hard working to support goodies for leftists created mess, funny money generation, medical shit and so on and not to mention gender confusion and peoples sexual preferences as the #1 priority to teach kids...many poisons to last life time

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    Post  Backman Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:02 am

    If you see the fat sad bastards involved , it looks like a joke. But remember the dollar store bay of pigs ? The Venezuela failed coup ?  And failed drone assassination.

    Belarus can't join NATO or the EU. It's a province of Russia now basically.

    I disagree that Belarus statehood should be respected. The under 30's would be the first people moving to Moscow or St.Pete if the Belarus leadership forced Russia to strip it's economy down to nothing like they are doing in Ukraine.

    Putin should have overthrown Lukashenko for meeting with Mike Pompeo. That's what I would have done

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    Post  Backman Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:33 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    LMFS wrote:
    SeigSoloyvov wrote:Luka will not allow a merge this has been well known.

    if russia wants one they need to remove him and replace him with someone who will, that said it is unclear if the Belarus population supports joining the federation.

    it will be interesting to see if they do or don't.

    The really important thing is the current reinforcement of the common nationality by the progressive integration of the two countries, which is the underlying condition to every viable state. They are the same blood with the same culture, language and increasingly economy, laws, institutions... and common enemies. What sense does it make to have two different states? What does it matter if they have Lukashenko, when both countries walk together?

    That is your personal view, the population by at least a 51 percent margin would need to approve of it before both governments go forward with it and that is the choice of the Belarus people, not mines or anyone else's who doesn't live there.

    If russia tries to absorb Belarus when they are not willing then eventually Belarus will leave and they will become heavily anti-russian as russia would be viewed by the populice as the bad country who tried to take them over which will easily then push Belarus into the orbit of the west for protection.

    so its critical, Russia be sure the common folk want it.

    If they don't want it, they don't want it.

    If they do, then they do.

     But the US would happily overthrow the govt and put it into NATO even if 10% of the population supported it. 

    So Russia can't afford to be all egalitarian and let the population decide everything.
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    Post  flamming_python Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:08 am

    Belarus is fine as it is

    The problem is Lukashenko. The people are fed up with him. Russia is tired of him. But he has created a dependency of everyone on himself, and now with the situation heating up Russia can't afford any risks; he at least can be relied upon to button down the fort if for no other reason than self-preservation.

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:51 am

    flamming_python wrote:Belarus is fine as it is

    The problem is Lukashenko. The people are fed up with him. Russia is tired of him. But he has created a dependency of everyone on himself, and now with the situation heating up Russia can't afford any risks; he at least can be relied upon to button down the fort if for no other reason than self-preservation.
    As it is Russia is spending the equivalent of 10 billion dollars every year with minimal returns...
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    Post  gbu48098 Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:57 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Belarus is fine as it is

    The problem is Lukashenko. The people are fed up with him. Russia is tired of him. But he has created a dependency of everyone on himself, and now with the situation heating up Russia can't afford any risks; he at least can be relied upon to button down the fort if for no other reason than self-preservation.
    As it is Russia is spending the equivalent of 10 billion dollars every year with minimal returns...

    Spending 10 billion doing exactly what? Energy subsidies?
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    Post  GarryB Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:03 pm

    As it is Russia is spending the equivalent of 10 billion dollars every year with minimal returns...

    Less than they were paying for a port in the Crimea...
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    Post  Backman Tue Apr 20, 2021 5:23 pm

    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Belarus is fine as it is

    The problem is Lukashenko. The people are fed up with him. Russia is tired of him. But he has created a dependency of everyone on himself, and now with the situation heating up Russia can't afford any risks; he at least can be relied upon to button down the fort if for no other reason than self-preservation.
    As it is Russia is spending the equivalent of 10 billion dollars every year with minimal returns...
    Russia is a federation. You could argue that they spend x billion on Chechnya too. That doesn't mean it's ok to lose it.

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:42 pm

    Backman wrote:
    Rodion_Romanovic wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Belarus is fine as it is

    The problem is Lukashenko. The people are fed up with him. Russia is tired of him. But he has created a dependency of everyone on himself, and now with the situation heating up Russia can't afford any risks; he at least can be relied upon to button down the fort if for no other reason than self-preservation.
    As it is Russia is spending the equivalent of 10 billion dollars every year with minimal returns...
    Russia is a federation. You could argue that they spend x billion on Chechnya too. That doesn't mean it's ok to lose it.
    no, i meant that is they have to subside it it makes only sense to integrate it fully.

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    Post  Backman Tue Apr 20, 2021 6:51 pm

    https://gilbertdoctorow.com/

    By Gilbert Doctorow.

    Gilbert Doctorow is a professional Russia watcher going back to 1965. For twenty-five years he worked for US and European multinationals in marketing and general management with regional responsibility. In the year 2000, he closed his corporate career as General Director in Russia and the CIS for a UK based multinational.

    In his last book “War with Russia?” my friend and colleague Steve Cohen wrote about the flagrant censorship of news being carried on by The New York Times in support of its Russia-bashing editorial policies. Said Cohen, the newspaper’s century old slogan of “All the News That’s Fit to Print” has been turned into “All the News that Fits” when it comes to coverage of Russia.

    But the problem goes far deeper than the professional malpractice of one leading newspaper in America. The censorship of news carried by mainstream media by U.S. authorities covers not only the domestic press but also the mainstream of Allied countries. News blackouts are imposed when something ugly arises implicating the United States in violation of international norms of state behavior for which the State Department has no ready explanation or white wash.

    This very situation seems to have arisen over the weekend, when news broke in Moscow over the arrest of two conspirators plotting a coup d’état in Minsk, to be carried out by the Belarus armed forces tentatively during the 9 May parade celebrating victory over fascist Germany in the Second World War.

    Other leading English-speaking papers such as The Guardian and The Financial Times have front page reports on Alexei Navalny’s near death condition in a prison camp but not a word about Belarus. Ditto the Frankfurter Allgemeine and Le Figaro. Curious, n’est-ce pas? Warum? Let’s look into the story in its full dimension.

    Last night’s News of the Week program hosted by Dimitry Kiselyov, Russia’s top manager of state news programming, began with a 20 minute report on the extraordinary arrest of two conspirators plotting armed rebellion entailing the murder of Lukashenko and his family, abolition of the post of President, installation of a Committee of Concord such as previously had been headed by the opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya.

    But these were not empty allegations. The arrests followed on a meeting by the two conspirators with Belarus military officers held in a downtown Moscow restaurant which was filmed from start to finish by the Russian state security agency, the FSB. Lengthy segments of recordings from their meeting and discussion of their treasonous plans were aired on the Kiselyov program. Moreover, the accused are not some unknown pawns such as the British presented to the world press when they released their accusations against Russia over the Skripal poisoning. No, one of the two arrested was the former press secretary of Lukashenko, a person who would have had all the contacts necessary to organize such a rebellion. The other plotter has dual US-Belarus citizenship and was well known as a fighter against Lukashenko’s rule.

    The two were turned over to the Belarus KGB for interrogation in Minsk. Surely further information about the links of the plotters to Ukraine, to Poland and to the United States will come out in the next few days.

    What we have here is “very likely” (to use current Anglo-American political jargon) involvement of the United States in yet another regime change operation. The revolution from below in Belarus led by Tikhanovskaya with support from Poland and Lithuania failed. The anti-Lukashenko street demonstrations led to nothing. And now Plan B, a putsch from above, was being organized to achieve the objective of removing Lukashenko both politically and physically. We have not seen such openly murderous plans with “likely” U.S. backing since John Kennedy’s days when the assassination of Fidel Castro was the hot game in D.C.

    On the same “very likely” logic, I permit myself to take this all back to the door of the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Policy designate Victoria Nuland
    . The links to Warsaw and Kiev that appear present are all in line with what she was doing to precipitate the Maidan in 2013 and violent overthrow of the sitting President in Kiev amidst attempts to murder him as he made his escape to Russian territory in February 2014.

    From all of the foregoing, it looks as though U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s pledge several weeks ago that the US would no longer pursue “orange revolutions” was either an out and out lie or made without his knowing that control of foreign policy no longer is in his hands, but is being carried out by his nominal subordinate, Mme Nuland. No wonder that the U.S. has ordered “stop the presses” on this story until it can put together some plausible response.

    In the meantime, the same news program delivered the Kremlin’s response to the Czech action over the weekend to expel 18 diplomats from the Russian embassy in Prague over allegations that Russia was involved in blowing up an arms depot near the capital back in 2014, an event which previously the Czech authorities had blamed on the owners-managers of the depot. Per the Kremlin, these new and absurd Czech charges of Russia’s nefarious activities were agreed with Washington to direct attention away from the pending story about U.S. involvement in plans to murder the Belarus head of state.

    Are we headed to World War III? If the war machinery today were like what existed in August 1914, the answer would be unquestionably yes.
    It is our good fortune that until someone on either side of the East-West divide pushes the Red Button, there are ways back from the abyss. However, we are still heading in the wrong direction, towards the abyss, and the United States is the prime mover.

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