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    Russia-Belarus Relationship

    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:49 pm

    Hole wrote:Would be nice to see the reaction from western media if he had some sort of "accident". In one second he would turn from "evil dictator" to "poor victim of russian aggression/Putin".

    What this punk ass move deserves is for Russia to stop construction on the nuclear power plant in Belorus and to cut off military
    purchases. It is clear that Belorus is a write off and as long as no regime change occurs, it is pointless to collaborate with it.
    Russia is way too soft on all sorts of idiots.

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    Post  PapaDragon on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:20 pm


    El Presidente of Montenegro pulled this very same move just before elections couple of years ago but in that case it was 30 Russian and Serbian agents (even number is similar)

    He won elections but now only thing keeping him off the lamp post now is cornona pandemic

    Luka has been running that little feudal domain even longer than Capo of Montenegro did his but folks ain't too pleased these days and once shit hits the fan it will not be pro EU crowd measuring his rope

    Russia should have had the whole bench full of replacements ready and should have strangled that little maggot with his own intestines years ago but in their infinite stupidity they counted on friendship and diplomacy, absolute morons...



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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:25 pm

    According to most, since there is no way to leave Russia by plane, these guys were either returning or heading to Africa via Belarus. So they were there for other reasons and nothing to do with Elections. This is apparently (to some) revenge by Lukashenko for his oppositionist fleeing Belarus to Moscow as he was going to be arrested.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/27khv/status/1288565323424202754?cxt=HHwWhICwybTV8-EjAAAA

    American state-run media
    @Svoboda
    (a cut out of
    @RFERL
    ) says the Russians detained in Minsk were transiting through Belarus on their way to Sudan. Which would be a strange place to overthrow Lukashenko from.
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    Post  Cyberspec on Thu Jul 30, 2020 3:17 am

    I think this is mainly for internal consumption in Belorussia. Lukashenko is showing that he is tough on Russia to counter the pro west opposition.

    Apparently Minsk is a transit point for these PMC types on their way to the Middle East. There seems to have been a silent agreement for this sort of thing. Looks like these arrested guys were headed to Sudan as they had Sudanese money on them and tourist pamphlets from Sudan. They were there a week already in the hotel wearing cammo outfits and were unarmed. Hardly something you would do if you were planning something in Belorussia.

    Some people believe they will be released after the election when they won't be needed any longer.

    Also, the opposition will likely not recognise the elections as legitimate and will try to topple the government by force. Lukashenko is said to be planning some sort of crackdown if that occurs.

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    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:02 am

    Cyberspec wrote:I think this is mainly for internal consumption in Belorussia. Lukashenko is showing that he is tough on Russia to counter the pro west opposition.

    Apparently Minsk is a transit point for these PMC types on their way to the Middle East. There seems to have been a silent agreement for this sort of thing. Looks like these arrested guys were headed to Sudan as they had Sudanese money on them and tourist pamphlets from Sudan. They were there a week already in the hotel wearing cammo outfits and were unarmed. Hardly something you would do if you were planning something in Belorussia.

    Some people believe they will be released after the election when they won't be needed any longer.

    Also, the opposition will likely not recognise the elections as legitimate and will try to topple the government by force. Lukashenko is said to be planning some sort of crackdown if that occurs.

    I doubt there will be any violent coup attempt in Belarus, but in the event that does happen Russia better hurry and secure Belarus otherwise it will face another Ukraine situation and I am hoping they have learned their lesson the first time.
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    Post  GarryB on Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:32 am

    Its been known for a long time that Putin considers Lukashenko to be rather a wild and unpredictable ie irrational/dangerous character.

    Well to be fair most people consider him to have become a wild and unpredictable character... the old saying that power corrupts is apt here.

    I hope at the right time, Putin gets the right people onside and fixes Belarus ie as a part of Russia or whatever is the best solution.

    I suspect Putin will be consistent and point out to others complaining about his inaction that it really is not up to the president of Russia to impose regime change on a neighbour and that it is for the population of that neighbouring country to decide what they should be doing for themselves because they will have to live with the consequences...

    Like the Ukraine is for instance...

    Belorussians are being fed the same koolaid, but I doubt that the effects will be as potent. So there is room for Russia to engineer its
    own coup against Lukashenko's regime.

    If Putin pulls that sort of shit what makes Russia any different from the west? If the Belrussians can't work out from the simpering kool aide addict on their border crying for another hit from the IMF and willing to sell their morality to get one more, then perhaps that is their destiny too.

    From a Russian perspective if the west wins there it is one less state to carry... the Ukraine is no threat to Russia... certainly not a threat that couldn't be easily dealt with in war time...

    The irony is that the US offers them freedom... but it is the Russians that are allowing them the freedom to choose for themselves...

    So Belarus claims they arrested 30 Russians who work for "Wagner" (yeah, lol) because they were going to destabilize the elections.

    What a surprise.... Wagner is now the evidence you need to prove Putin ordered it personally... why did I even give it a second thought... Rolling Eyes

    Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
    The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
    the west are over.

    Time for Russia to realise they are enabling a junkie and if you want to help him you need to expose him to the real world...

    Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well. Something that will be a problem for Russia.

    Just a lot of stuff that Russia will need to reinvent on Russian soil... investing in it self is never a bad thing... though friendly relations with neighbours is important sometimes you can't control what you neighbours do and who they associate with.

    Russia really needs to put its foot down and deal with Belarus to get it in line.

    The risk then is interfering and getting caught and the result being either pushing them into HATO arms... or worse winning them back but with a built in 5th column of millions of unhappy people wanting revenge on Russia because everything now will be Russias fault.

    While Russia makes all the thermal imagers for their tanks and armored vehicles, they are all under Belarus assembly. Meaning Russia will have to move production of its armored vehicle imaging system assembly into Russia.

    Next major issue is Belarus holds a lot of Russian sensitive tech in the Electric warfare capabilities.

    If it is just assembly then move it to Russia anyway, and compromised technology is a good excuse to invest and upgrade....

    I agree that regime change in Belorus is fully justified. But I think that Belorussians will not hate Russia as much as
    the Banderite vermin in former Ukraine. There is no centuries long history of a separate identity. In fact, the
    slide of Belorus into the economic toilet will kill the whole anti-Russia project. Faced with a choice of drinking
    some koolaid about a mythical history and living well, the masses will choose the latter. In Banderastan that
    is not so easy since there are millions of hard core Banderites invested in the anti-Russian agenda.


    I suspect the best medicine if not to let them see what is happening to the Ukraine is to let Luka lead them to the west and the promise land and when they start cutting Russia off their lists of everything they might start to realise how closely integrated they are and how uninterested the west is to help fix those new problems they have... if there is no uprising there will at least be votes for opposing candidates next election time... by which time I suspect product substitution will be well underway...

    Chances are it's just Lukashenko using Wagner's name to get some brownie points, he has been stating recently Russia has been trying to discredit him. So it makes sense to use Wagner in this cause they are under the control of the GRU.

    But if it is true that Putin uses Wagner personally to do all his dirty work then are those not genuine and properly earned brownie points?

    Or is it just western propaganda bullshit as I was saying all along?

    IMO, if Putin cannot annex or force Belarus into the Federation soon (which he has been trying to do). That area is going to become a massive security risk to the Russians.

    It is not a gap that cannot be closed...

    Russia should have had the whole bench full of replacements ready and should have strangled that little maggot with his own intestines years ago but in their infinite stupidity they counted on friendship and diplomacy, absolute morons...

    You suggest Russia not acting like the west is a shortcoming.... I say it is a strength, because at the end of the day the world needs an actual alternative to western bullshit and if Russia starts play stupid western games it just becomes more of the same rather than a real viable alternative to what has been holding the whole world back in terms of development and growth...

    I doubt there will be any violent coup attempt in Belarus, but in the event that does happen Russia better hurry and secure Belarus otherwise it will face another Ukraine situation and I am hoping they have learned their lesson the first time.

    The lesson that the west are a bunch of censored , yes, I suspect they get that already... What I doubt is that they will interfere and try regime change... after all they are not American.

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    Post  GarryB on Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:40 am

    Well it could be interesting... these mercs are just being used as political pawns... but what if Luka wins the election in his usual manner and then of course these captives cost money to feed, so let them go... and then the people looking for a way out of their luka prison might offer these guys some money and weapons to do what they do best.

    I mean the US encouraged a merc group to kidnap Maduro in Venezuela... it would be much easier to get 32 trained professional guys to kill a dictator with the support of the people and likely a few inside the military who are not happy either...
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    Post  Regular on Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:06 pm

    Major opposition in Ukraine are pro russian, not pro west.

    And Luka wants to arrest them too.

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/07/24/barred-belarus-opposition-candidate-flees-to-moscow-a70975
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    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Jul 30, 2020 5:12 pm

    yeah, most of the opposition in Belarus are pro Russian it seems. Only one group is pro west and they are rather small too.

    So Lukashenko is more like an opportunist in all its glory.
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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Thu Jul 30, 2020 6:52 pm

    Apparently it wasn't Wagner but a different PMC outfit called 'MAR'.

    https://twitter.com/sbobkov/status/1288554689835888640
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    Post  Regular on Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:19 pm

    Maybe some of you guys are right. There's no such thing as Wagner PMC. If it did exist, it splintered very early. There are probably 5-8 PMC companies in Russia. There are the ones working with oilrig, anti-piracy protection, to VIP and personel training.

    By the way,

    I don't think socialism is that popular in Belarus anymore. Nevertheless, socialist or not, they need new government as soon as possible. Lukashenko is willing to backstab Russia just to survive. His people simply don't want him around, he can still leave without making too many enemies.. does he really want to become opposite Yanukovich or like Saakashvilli who can't even come back to his country, because sure as hell he will be unwelcome guest if he spills their blood. Russia will have all the rights to move in and oust him.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu Jul 30, 2020 8:23 pm

    Regular wrote:Maybe some of you guys are right. There's no such thing as Wagner PMC. If it did exist, it splintered very early. There are probably 5-8 PMC companies in Russia. There are the ones working with oilrig, anti-piracy protection, to VIP and personel training.

    By the way,

    I don't think socialism is that popular in Belarus anymore. Nevertheless, socialist or not, they need new government as soon as possible. Lukashenko is willing to backstab Russia just to survive. His people simply don't want him around, he can still leave without making too many enemies.. does he really want to become opposite Yanukovich or like Saakashvilli who can't even come back to his country, because sure as hell he will be unwelcome guest if he spills their blood. Russia will have all the rights to move in and oust him.

    That has been the issue with any system from day one. The theory is never implemented in practice.

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    Post  magnumcromagnon on Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:19 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Regular wrote:Maybe some of you guys are right. There's no such thing as Wagner PMC. If it did exist, it splintered very early. There are probably 5-8 PMC companies in Russia. There are the ones working with oilrig, anti-piracy protection, to VIP and personel training.

    By the way,

    I don't think socialism is that popular in Belarus anymore. Nevertheless, socialist or not, they need new government as soon as possible. Lukashenko is willing to backstab Russia just to survive. His people simply don't want him around, he can still leave without making too many enemies.. does he really want to become opposite Yanukovich or like Saakashvilli who can't even come back to his country, because sure as hell he will be unwelcome guest if he spills their blood. Russia will have all the rights to move in and oust him.

    That has been the issue with any system from day one.   The theory is never implemented in practice.


    To be fair capitalists don't believe in their own values (i.e. Free-Market) in actual practice either.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Thu Jul 30, 2020 11:56 pm

    magnumcromagnon wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    Regular wrote:Maybe some of you guys are right. There's no such thing as Wagner PMC. If it did exist, it splintered very early. There are probably 5-8 PMC companies in Russia. There are the ones working with oilrig, anti-piracy protection, to VIP and personel training.

    By the way,

    I don't think socialism is that popular in Belarus anymore. Nevertheless, socialist or not, they need new government as soon as possible. Lukashenko is willing to backstab Russia just to survive. His people simply don't want him around, he can still leave without making too many enemies.. does he really want to become opposite Yanukovich or like Saakashvilli who can't even come back to his country, because sure as hell he will be unwelcome guest if he spills their blood. Russia will have all the rights to move in and oust him.

    That has been the issue with any system from day one.   The theory is never implemented in practice.


    To be fair capitalists don't believe in their own values (i.e. Free-Market) in actual practice either.

    That was part of my point. Russia realized this around 1998. The "free market" in the west is a controlled
    oligopolistic market with star chambers deciding what happens with the economy. In 1991 Russians were
    hoodwinked that some self-regulating, self-organizing market system would just pop up. Instead they
    were on their way to being sold down the river.

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    Post  Cyberspec on Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:54 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    I doubt there will be any violent coup attempt in Belarus, but in the event that does happen Russia better hurry and secure Belarus otherwise it will face another Ukraine situation and I am hoping they have learned their lesson the first time.

    I think there's a good chance a coup will be attempted. They'll send "activists" from Ukraine to stir the pot and help organise the local groups
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    Post  GarryB on Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:46 am

    Maybe some of you guys are right. There's no such thing as Wagner PMC. If it did exist, it splintered very early. There are probably 5-8 PMC companies in Russia. There are the ones working with oilrig, anti-piracy protection, to VIP and personel training.

    Thinking there is just one PMC group in Russia is just consistent western crap... along the same lines as they think like us so anything bad we would do they are probably doing so even though we have no evidence we think it is highly likely.

    Blackwater was not proven to be involved in the recent attempt to kidnap Maduro.... it was a different group of ex military people wanting to earn that reward.... not every ex military person is ready to sit around and write books... a lot want excitement but being a merc on your own would be dangerous... our mercs are OK but their mercs are bad guys and easy targets on their own... and not everyone who has served gets along with everyone else who has served... it is only common sense that with all the danger and all the money there are going to be thousands of PMC type groups everywhere... and of course if you are sending troops into a country you don't already have people in you will seek out friendly PMCs to consult and maybe even hire for a few jobs...

    But all Russian mercs are loyal to Putin and working for him personally is a trap the western media wants to be able to use to blame Russia for things it has nothing to do with.

    If Russia wants to ensure peace in the Crimea to allow free and fair elections to take place they don't send in PMCs.

    The US uses PMCs to protect civilian contractors so US Army does not need to do that directly.... the US Army is essentially a big PMC for US companies who want a US presence in places with oil or lithium... but they can't make that too obvious... because actual PMCs are well paid.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Mon Aug 03, 2020 11:00 am

    According to this article on southfront.. the alleged mercenaries from Russia that were detained in Belarus were travelling from there to Istanbul (and most probably from there to some other locations in north africa or in the middle east)


    https://southfront.org/evidence-surfaces-that-russians-detained-in-belarus-were-in-fact-traveling-to-istanbul/


    I hope this farce of the elections in belarus finish as soon as possible, at least the old man will diminish a bit his propaganda ...

    Anyway, winning another election will not help him much if he continues on his path... Ceausescu was always reelected too...
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    Post  Regular on Tue Aug 04, 2020 12:11 am

    One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:31 am

    Regular wrote:One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...

    There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over
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    Post  LMFS on Tue Aug 04, 2020 3:22 am

    Regular wrote:One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...

    The power structures in Belarus have been already handed-in to the pro-West camp by the very Lukashenko in his stupid attempt to bargain with Putin and any pro-Russian public figure has long been removed from the scene, so who is going to organize that pro-Russian maidan? On the contrary, the notion that Russia is behind some kind of subversion is quite craftily being used to obfuscate the fact that a pro-western maidan along the lines of that in Ukraine is being blatantly prepared in Belarus, and I think you are right that Ukrainian nazis will make part of the menu... normal people in Ukraine never thought they were going to see events in their country like those in Georgia and then one good day they woke up living under an US-sponsored nazi government.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:36 am

    Probably Russia is trying not to overplay its hand and wait that US will destroy itself in the near future...

    After that all the pro west and pro america people in those countries will be as useful as the ex communists in ex eastern germany or poland... and maybe do another 180 turn...
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    Post  Regular on Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:12 am

    SeigSoloyvov wrote:
    Regular wrote:One Russian blogger wrote that it might be pro-russian maidan. Well I hope it will be bloodless, even for Luka and his guys. People in Belarus are not hotheaded and you won't see nazi revolutionaries brandishing weapons even amongst nationalist crowd. I am afraid that Luka can bring Ukrainian nazis to discredit protests...

    There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over

    I would say, even older people want independent country, but they want pro-russian one too with no EU integration. Viktar Babaryka, most popular and pro-russian candidate, who is now in jail said that unification with Russia if that happens, it should be beneficial for both, rather than one party and if it to happen, Belarus shouldn't loose their sovereignty.

    Young people want to have national identity and more dynamic government. All people want to get rid of irremovable president and deal with stagnation.
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    Post  Regular on Tue Aug 04, 2020 8:27 am

    LMFS wrote:

    The power structures in Belarus have been already handed-in to the pro-West camp by the very Lukashenko in his stupid attempt to bargain with Putin and any pro-Russian public figure has long been removed from the scene, so who is going to organize that pro-Russian maidan? On the contrary, the notion that Russia is behind some kind of subversion is quite craftily being used to obfuscate the fact that a pro-western maidan along the lines of that in Ukraine is being blatantly prepared in Belarus, and I think you are right that Ukrainian nazis will make part of the menu... normal people in Ukraine never thought they were going to see events in their country like those in Georgia and then one good day they woke up living under an US-sponsored nazi government.

    Sorry, but what is wrong in Georgia today? I was there last year, spoke Russian with older people and it was ok. Saakashvilli is not welcome there, there are no skirmishes or provocations that were daily occurance before 2008. It's safe and clean even without being rich. They did control their corruption. Their opposition is dumb and dangerous, probably US funded., but their country don't lick US ass and culturally they are not part of pedofilic globohomo. If they are Russian enemies, then I'm wishing all enemies were like that.

    I think Ukraine wish they were anything like Georgia, but I doubt they ever will. Ukrainian government is not Nazi, they were using them to get in power. Their government is clearly oligarchy that is only interested in robbing, Yeltsin looks good compared to them. They are interested in having never ending conflict in east, in so many years they didn't propose any solution.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:21 am

    The issue is also that Russia does not need Bielorussia on those conditions... Belorussia does not have much to offer to Russia... just some off hand ways to circumvent some of the mutual sanctions with the west, and production of stuff or reprocessing of goods that anyway originate from Russia... all of those are basically financial supports that russia gives to that country...

    In the past client states had to pay tributes and give military support to their patron state (that was the case how the superpower of the time... be it Rome, Carthage and for the Persian empire behaved with their clients)..

    However Belorussia is pretending to get Russian money, in exchange of nothing... just not to be too much aligned with the west...

    A friend like that is not needed... bielorussia does not even support russian policies at the UN and is recently openly creating problems... if so they should be treated like poland... and the money saved used on investing on poorer regions of russia... and if they produce some components needed for russian industries or military... now it is the time to move production and assembly in Russia...

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    Post  GarryB on Tue Aug 04, 2020 9:43 am


    There will be blood most of the young crowd in Belarus doesn't want to join Russia, I don't see them laying down and accepting the taking it over

    Hahaha.... hilarious.... Russia have not done anything but you are supporting those poor innocent young Belarus men and women in their struggle against the evil Russia...

    The conflict in Georgia he western narrative was that the Russians were invading Georgia... which suggests that Georgia not only held them back but pushed them back from the borders with South Ossetia to allow the capital city to be shelled before the Russians pushed them back... when we all know now there were no Russian invasions and it was Georgian troops invading South Ossetia and murdering Russian peacekeepers stationed there that kicked off the conflict.... and in the Ukraine the western narative was that the evil pro Russian leader of the Ukraine murdered innocent civilians during peaceful protests, yet we now know it was a US paid for coup where Georgian snipers were paid to shoot specific "freedom fighters" and police to stir up the protests... Yanukovych was never pro Russia, he was simply pragmatic and realised the obvious that the EU promise of 7.5 billion dollars in loans is not as good a deal as 15 billion dollars in investments in their economy... and for that he was overthrown with nazis taking power who have since asset stripped the country.

    But continue sipping the western kool aide... splitting Russia from Belarus will further damage Russia, but not in any long term way, and it will essentially remove a tick from Russias ass that has been drinking blood for three decades now without showing much promise of doing very much for itself except take advantage of cheap energy from Russia and its location in regard to being between Russia and the EU...

    Such friendships should not be kept at all costs.... just let them decide for themselves... if they want to wear blue jeans and listen to rock and roll records then let them... they wont understand until they grow up... but Russia is not going anywhere... let them have their fun.... the lesson will be painful but life is painful.

    miketheterrible and LMFS like this post


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      Current date/time is Tue Aug 11, 2020 8:57 am