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    Russia-Belarus Relationship

    Rodion_Romanovic
    Rodion_Romanovic

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sun Feb 23, 2020 12:09 pm

    A couple of articles from Rostislav Ishchenko


    https://ukraina.ru/news/20200221/1026801927.html

    https://ukraina.ru/news/20200222/1026801856.html


    Ishchenko described what will begin if the Belarusian elite overthrows Lukashenko

    02.21.2020

    The overthrow of Alexander Lukashenko from the post of president of Belarus means the beginning of a conflict within the Belarusian nomenclature. This was told by the columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko, answering questions from readers of the publication Ukraina.ru

    “Now Lukashenko is holding them back. It is for them a favorite, or hated, but the assemblage point. If he is removed from this scheme, then all the various elite groups (which united in love or hatred of Lukashenko) will begin to engage in the struggle for power, ”the expert explained.
    Given the fact that nationalists in Belarus have much less support than in Ukraine, the political scientist argues, they will have to build a much tougher regime, since they can only retain power by force and intimidation.
    And since the republic’s elites will not be united, Ishchenko pointed out, some part of it that will be removed from power will rely on anti-nationalist forces (including pro-Russian), which will lead to a civil war.
    Therefore, even the Belarusian elite should stop blackmailing Russia with their departure to the West, and accept the very good conditions of Moscow, since no one can offer them better, the expert concluded.



    Ishchenko explained what Russia would face if Belarus finally left for the West

    02/22/2020, 07:50



    The hypothetical departure of Belarus towards the West will inevitably lead to the collapse of all Belarusian statehood, which Russia will have to restore. This was told by the columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko, answering questions from readers of the publication Ukraina.ru

    “Russia will face the same problem of what to do with these territories later: how to equip them, how to solve the problem of restoring normal civilized life there,” the expert pointed out.
    In any case, the political scientist noted, the departure of Belarus towards the West will not change anything for Russia in terms of geopolitics, since it is already cut off from Western Europe by the unfriendly Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine.
    “From the Baltic to the Black Sea, everything is closed. This is also why Russia built bypass gas pipelines along the seabed in order not to deal with unfriendly regimes, ”Ischenko explained.
    At the same time, in his opinion, it is unlikely that the Belarusian leadership will openly declare their departure to the West, since they want to blame President Alexander Lukashenko for possible costs , as the Ukrainian elite put them on Viktor Yanukovych.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 23, 2020 5:39 pm



    The economy of Belorus is starting to swirl the toilet bowl. Investors are beginning to run for the border.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:22 pm

    https://m.lenta.ru/articles/2019/02/05/lukabestally/amp/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Apparently Belarus seeks to have NATO exercises in Belarus and stuff like that.

    Time to cut off Lukashenko. Let him drown.
    George1
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    Post  George1 on Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:28 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:https://m.lenta.ru/articles/2019/02/05/lukabestally/amp/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Apparently Belarus seeks to have NATO exercises in Belarus and stuff like that.

    Time to cut off Lukashenko. Let him drown.

    no way, Belarus is a CSTO member
    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:42 am

    Yet they are pulling this. As I said, time to make ultimatums back at Lukashenko. Tell him if he doesn't want to comply, best he start packing.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:07 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Yet they are pulling this. As I said, time to make ultimatums back at Lukashenko.  Tell him if he doesn't want to comply, best he start packing.

    Oh and whats Russia going to do Coup him?. Russia could apply economic sanctions but that would only push Belarus more towards the west.

    The west would be happy to give Belarus some money in exchange for troop placement.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:05 am

    The west would be happy to give Belarus some money in exchange for troop placement.

    But that is the point... they do initially, but after a while they make you pay to have their troops there...

    HATO troops in Belarus would be easier and cheaper to target. In this day an age having troops on the border is no advantage... in fact even during WWII most countries the Germans defeated quickly, they did so because all their forces rushed to the border and got encircled and captured... the Soviets initially made the same mistake and millions of trained soldiers walked straight in to captivity and their equipment and weapons were captured... what saved them was their population size which meant replacements could be sent in waves as the war dragged on.

    Not really going to be an issue with WWIII... the level of performance of Russian anti armour and anti aircraft equipment and its wide distribution throughout its military means any invading force is going to really struggle.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:59 am

    Conventional war is dead. No massed army is going to invade anything like it did 75 years ago. Any massing means total exposure
    to tactical nuking. The yanquis are hoping they can "decapitate" Russia's missile capability and roll in unopposed with an invading
    army. The yanquis are dreaming in Technicolor.

    Maybe one can envision small units skirmishing with essentially guerrilla tactics in border zones. But that is not a real invasion and
    some sort of attempt to bleed Russia conventionally. The body bag flow back to NATzO from this sort of warfare will be huge.
    It will not be as bad as WW I trench warfare, but it is essentially the same stalled Turkey shoot. And Russia can throw nuke
    at NATzO's logistical lines so I doubt this is an option viable for NATzO.

    WW III is an all or nothing nuke war. Escalation happening super-exponentially in the first 30 minutes. No limited nuclear engagement
    and other delusional NATzO plans will fly.


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    Post  Firebird on Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:07 pm

    Its been known for a long time that Putin considers Lukashenko to be rather a wild and unpredictable ie irrational/dangerous character. I can't help but feel there is a similarity with Turdogan in Turkey. I hope at the right time, Putin gets the right people onside and fixes Belarus ie as a part of Russia or whatever is the best solution.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:51 pm

    Firebird wrote:Its been known for a long time that Putin considers Lukashenko to be rather a wild and unpredictable ie irrational/dangerous character. I can't help but feel there is a similarity with Turdogan in Turkey. I hope at the right time, Putin gets the right people onside and fixes Belarus ie as a part of Russia or whatever is the best solution.

    I agree. After the 2014 farce in Ukraine, Russia is not going to give NATzO a cakewalk in Belorus. In spite of the Polish minority in Belorus,
    it is nothing like Pukeraine which was infested in Banderites and engaged in a rabid inferiority complex posing as nationalism against Russia.
    Belorussians are being fed the same koolaid, but I doubt that the effects will be as potent. So there is room for Russia to engineer its
    own coup against Lukashenko's regime.


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