Ishchenko described what will begin if the Belarusian elite overthrows Lukashenko
The overthrow of Alexander Lukashenko from the post of president of Belarus means the beginning of a conflict within the Belarusian nomenclature. This was told by the columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko, answering questions from readers of the publication Ukraina.ru
“Now Lukashenko is holding them back. It is for them a favorite, or hated, but the assemblage point. If he is removed from this scheme, then all the various elite groups (which united in love or hatred of Lukashenko) will begin to engage in the struggle for power, ”the expert explained.
Given the fact that nationalists in Belarus have much less support than in Ukraine, the political scientist argues, they will have to build a much tougher regime, since they can only retain power by force and intimidation.
And since the republic’s elites will not be united, Ishchenko pointed out, some part of it that will be removed from power will rely on anti-nationalist forces (including pro-Russian), which will lead to a civil war.
Therefore, even the Belarusian elite should stop blackmailing Russia with their departure to the West, and accept the very good conditions of Moscow, since no one can offer them better, the expert concluded.
Ishchenko explained what Russia would face if Belarus finally left for the West
The hypothetical departure of Belarus towards the West will inevitably lead to the collapse of all Belarusian statehood, which Russia will have to restore. This was told by the columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko, answering questions from readers of the publication Ukraina.ru
“Russia will face the same problem of what to do with these territories later: how to equip them, how to solve the problem of restoring normal civilized life there,” the expert pointed out.
In any case, the political scientist noted, the departure of Belarus towards the West will not change anything for Russia in terms of geopolitics, since it is already cut off from Western Europe by the unfriendly Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine.
“From the Baltic to the Black Sea, everything is closed. This is also why Russia built bypass gas pipelines along the seabed in order not to deal with unfriendly regimes, ”Ischenko explained.
At the same time, in his opinion, it is unlikely that the Belarusian leadership will openly declare their departure to the West, since they want to blame President Alexander Lukashenko for possible costs , as the Ukrainian elite put them on Viktor Yanukovych.