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    Russia-Belarus Relationship

    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:09 pm

    A couple of articles from Rostislav Ishchenko


    https://ukraina.ru/news/20200221/1026801927.html

    https://ukraina.ru/news/20200222/1026801856.html


    Ishchenko described what will begin if the Belarusian elite overthrows Lukashenko

    02.21.2020

    The overthrow of Alexander Lukashenko from the post of president of Belarus means the beginning of a conflict within the Belarusian nomenclature. This was told by the columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko, answering questions from readers of the publication Ukraina.ru

    “Now Lukashenko is holding them back. It is for them a favorite, or hated, but the assemblage point. If he is removed from this scheme, then all the various elite groups (which united in love or hatred of Lukashenko) will begin to engage in the struggle for power, ”the expert explained.
    Given the fact that nationalists in Belarus have much less support than in Ukraine, the political scientist argues, they will have to build a much tougher regime, since they can only retain power by force and intimidation.
    And since the republic’s elites will not be united, Ishchenko pointed out, some part of it that will be removed from power will rely on anti-nationalist forces (including pro-Russian), which will lead to a civil war.
    Therefore, even the Belarusian elite should stop blackmailing Russia with their departure to the West, and accept the very good conditions of Moscow, since no one can offer them better, the expert concluded.



    Ishchenko explained what Russia would face if Belarus finally left for the West

    02/22/2020, 07:50



    The hypothetical departure of Belarus towards the West will inevitably lead to the collapse of all Belarusian statehood, which Russia will have to restore. This was told by the columnist of the MIA “Russia Today” Rostislav Ishchenko, answering questions from readers of the publication Ukraina.ru

    “Russia will face the same problem of what to do with these territories later: how to equip them, how to solve the problem of restoring normal civilized life there,” the expert pointed out.
    In any case, the political scientist noted, the departure of Belarus towards the West will not change anything for Russia in terms of geopolitics, since it is already cut off from Western Europe by the unfriendly Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine.
    “From the Baltic to the Black Sea, everything is closed. This is also why Russia built bypass gas pipelines along the seabed in order not to deal with unfriendly regimes, ”Ischenko explained.
    At the same time, in his opinion, it is unlikely that the Belarusian leadership will openly declare their departure to the West, since they want to blame President Alexander Lukashenko for possible costs , as the Ukrainian elite put them on Viktor Yanukovych.
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    Post  kvs on Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:39 pm



    The economy of Belorus is starting to swirl the toilet bowl. Investors are beginning to run for the border.

    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:22 am

    https://m.lenta.ru/articles/2019/02/05/lukabestally/amp/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Apparently Belarus seeks to have NATO exercises in Belarus and stuff like that.

    Time to cut off Lukashenko. Let him drown.
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    Post  George1 on Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:28 am

    miketheterrible wrote:https://m.lenta.ru/articles/2019/02/05/lukabestally/amp/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

    Apparently Belarus seeks to have NATO exercises in Belarus and stuff like that.

    Time to cut off Lukashenko. Let him drown.

    no way, Belarus is a CSTO member
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    Post  miketheterrible on Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:42 am

    Yet they are pulling this. As I said, time to make ultimatums back at Lukashenko. Tell him if he doesn't want to comply, best he start packing.
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:07 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Yet they are pulling this. As I said, time to make ultimatums back at Lukashenko.  Tell him if he doesn't want to comply, best he start packing.

    Oh and whats Russia going to do Coup him?. Russia could apply economic sanctions but that would only push Belarus more towards the west.

    The west would be happy to give Belarus some money in exchange for troop placement.
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    Post  GarryB on Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:05 am

    The west would be happy to give Belarus some money in exchange for troop placement.

    But that is the point... they do initially, but after a while they make you pay to have their troops there...

    HATO troops in Belarus would be easier and cheaper to target. In this day an age having troops on the border is no advantage... in fact even during WWII most countries the Germans defeated quickly, they did so because all their forces rushed to the border and got encircled and captured... the Soviets initially made the same mistake and millions of trained soldiers walked straight in to captivity and their equipment and weapons were captured... what saved them was their population size which meant replacements could be sent in waves as the war dragged on.

    Not really going to be an issue with WWIII... the level of performance of Russian anti armour and anti aircraft equipment and its wide distribution throughout its military means any invading force is going to really struggle.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:59 am

    Conventional war is dead. No massed army is going to invade anything like it did 75 years ago. Any massing means total exposure
    to tactical nuking. The yanquis are hoping they can "decapitate" Russia's missile capability and roll in unopposed with an invading
    army. The yanquis are dreaming in Technicolor.

    Maybe one can envision small units skirmishing with essentially guerrilla tactics in border zones. But that is not a real invasion and
    some sort of attempt to bleed Russia conventionally. The body bag flow back to NATzO from this sort of warfare will be huge.
    It will not be as bad as WW I trench warfare, but it is essentially the same stalled Turkey shoot. And Russia can throw nuke
    at NATzO's logistical lines so I doubt this is an option viable for NATzO.

    WW III is an all or nothing nuke war. Escalation happening super-exponentially in the first 30 minutes. No limited nuclear engagement
    and other delusional NATzO plans will fly.


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    Post  Firebird on Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:07 am

    Its been known for a long time that Putin considers Lukashenko to be rather a wild and unpredictable ie irrational/dangerous character. I can't help but feel there is a similarity with Turdogan in Turkey. I hope at the right time, Putin gets the right people onside and fixes Belarus ie as a part of Russia or whatever is the best solution.
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    Post  kvs on Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:51 am

    Firebird wrote:Its been known for a long time that Putin considers Lukashenko to be rather a wild and unpredictable ie irrational/dangerous character. I can't help but feel there is a similarity with Turdogan in Turkey. I hope at the right time, Putin gets the right people onside and fixes Belarus ie as a part of Russia or whatever is the best solution.

    I agree. After the 2014 farce in Ukraine, Russia is not going to give NATzO a cakewalk in Belorus. In spite of the Polish minority in Belorus,
    it is nothing like Pukeraine which was infested in Banderites and engaged in a rabid inferiority complex posing as nationalism against Russia.
    Belorussians are being fed the same koolaid, but I doubt that the effects will be as potent. So there is room for Russia to engineer its
    own coup against Lukashenko's regime.

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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:56 pm

    So things are not going well in Belarus.

    So Belarus claims they arrested 30 Russians who work for "Wagner" (yeah, lol) because they were going to destabilize the elections.  Now, a Belarus opposition has fled Belarus to Moscow because he is being threatened and is banned from taking part in elections.

    Lukashenko is pushing his luck to the extreme.  Wants to damage ties with Russia for some reason.  He isn't that stupid and knows what happened in Ukraine.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1288467049791082496?cxt=HHwWgMC--ZD9xuEjAAAA
    https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1288460584409878528?cxt=HHwWgMC-jeaExOEjAAAA

    https://www.rt.com/news/496532-belarus-military-company-detention/

    Now look at the video closely. There is a document written in Arabic.
    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:05 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:So things are not going well in Belarus.

    So Belarus claims they arrested 30 Russians who work for "Wagner" (yeah, lol) because they were going to destabilize the elections.  Now, a Belarus opposition has fled Belarus to Moscow because he is being threatened and is banned from taking part in elections.

    Lukashenko is pushing his luck to the extreme.  Wants to damage ties with Russia for some reason.  He isn't that stupid and knows what happened in Ukraine.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1288467049791082496?cxt=HHwWgMC--ZD9xuEjAAAA
    https://mobile.twitter.com/O_Rich_/status/1288460584409878528?cxt=HHwWgMC-jeaExOEjAAAA

    https://www.rt.com/news/496532-belarus-military-company-detention/

    Now look at the video closely.  There is a document written in Arabic.

    I think that Lukashenko has a degraded intellect thanks to his years in power. We are judging him from the position of average
    citizens so we do not appreciate what bubble he has been living in for decades. Absolute power corrupts absolutely is not a
    vapid dictum, it is based on centuries of human experience. Lukashenko's thinking has been distorted by decades of getting
    his own way and not having to accept reality. He may have been more on the ball in 1990, but he was still some low-grade
    red director back then.

    Lukashenko is actually corrupt. His family owns several mansions unlike Putin who does not own one in spite of all the pathetic
    NATzO lies trying to claim that refurbished government palaces are his property. Lukashenko is also tied up with oligarchs like
    the one who was profiting from cheap Russian oil which was being reprocessed into more expensive goods like fuels and lubricants
    to sale to the west. So Lukashenko is literally a tin pot dictator in charge of a banana republic. His oppression of the opposition
    is real. Belorussians naturally want to be allied with Russia since they are ethnic Russians with a regional dialect. Lukashenko
    has sucked up to NATzO and is trying to concoct a fake history for Belorus. Like his claim that Belorus had nothing to do with
    the war between Stalin and Hitler. This inane BS is just like the Ukr claims to Russian history as their own.

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    Russia-Belarus Relationship - Page 6 Empty Belarus Claims It Detained 32 Mercenaries Near Minsk-Lukashenko says " It was Wagner."

    Post  par far on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:34 pm

    https://southfront.org/belarus-claims-it-detained-32-mercenaries-near-minsk/

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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:46 pm

    Lets wait to see what happens after elections. Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia. I dunno how this will play out to be honest. I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.
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    Post  kvs on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:47 pm

    par far wrote:https://southfront.org/belarus-claims-it-detained-32-mercenaries-near-minsk/


    Lukashenko is a NATzO stooge who is clearly using the services of the yanquis and the Brits. Why would 32 mercs
    be effective at staging a coup? You need way more people to coordinate a coup and most of them are civilians.
    These days you also need a massive rent-a-crowd like the on in 2013/14 in Ukraine.

    This cheesy propaganda is like the claim that Russia stole "western" vaccine research. A pathetic attempt
    to dilute the fact that Russia got to the trial stage much faster than the whole of NATzO. To the average
    sap the notion of vaccines being like some tech design is plausible, to people with knowledge it is pure intellectual
    insult.

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:49 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Lets wait to see what happens after elections.  Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia.  I dunno how this will play out to be honest.  I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.  

    Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
    The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
    the west are over.

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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:51 pm

    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Lets wait to see what happens after elections.  Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia.  I dunno how this will play out to be honest.  I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.  

    Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
    The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
    the west are over.


    Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well. Something that will be a problem for Russia.
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    Post  kvs on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:54 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Lets wait to see what happens after elections.  Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia.  I dunno how this will play out to be honest.  I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.  

    Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
    The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
    the west are over.


    Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well.  Something that will be a problem for Russia.

    That was true for Ukraine as well.

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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jul 29, 2020 9:57 pm

    That is true, but Russia doesn't need more enemies at its border.  5M more people to hate Russia and work against it isn't good.  Already many Ukrainian supporters of Navalny and such are working against Russia in other regions of Russia.

    Russia really needs to put its foot down and deal with Belarus to get it in line.

    then again, it isn't like India isn't surrounded by much bigger and stronger enemies than Russia is. So I guess in Russia's instance, they need to rely more on themselves and start clamping down on these 5th columnists from within while also working with bigger and stronger nations, while saving money from having to assist these smaller, pathetic nations like Belarus.
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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:18 pm

    https://mobile.twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1288480877656322050

    Belarus was being used as a transport hub by Wagner because Russian airports are closed to foreign travel, the Belarus KGB was appraised of it. The arrest of the 32 Wagnerites and publication of their identities is a very hostile move on Lukashenko's part.
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic on Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:37 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Lets wait to see what happens after elections.  Lukashenko may try to play it all up to try and get more concessions out of Russia.  I dunno how this will play out to be honest.  I am sick of Lukashenko and his bullshit and he is pushing Belarus to the arms of the west for no reason really.  

    Now that he has come out of the closet and openly allied with NATzO he will not be getting any concession out of Russia.
    The Russian government has been sending strong signals over the last few months that the days of accommodating and coddling
    the west are over.


    Yes but Belarus holds a lot of key Russian technology and industry as well.  Something that will be a problem for Russia.

    Which technologies?

    I thought they were mainly working on some reprocessing oil industry (basically a bone thrown by the Russian to them) and they did some decent trucks (MAZ) that in same cases were a bit better than the equivalent Russian, according to some people. There is also Abramovich aircraft repair plants, that is also working on repair and modernisation of some export model sukhoi...

    If there is something more important (like it was the case of Ukraine pre 2014) it would be more problematic...
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    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:58 pm

    While Russia makes all the thermal imagers for their tanks and armored vehicles, they are all under Belarus assembly. Meaning Russia will have to move production of its armored vehicle imaging system assembly into Russia.

    Next major issue is Belarus holds a lot of Russian sensitive tech in the Electric warfare capabilities.
    SeigSoloyvov
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    Post  SeigSoloyvov on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:03 pm

    Well, the word coup was never mentioned by anyone anywhere, so it's silly to use that term.

    That said, Wagner wouldn't make sense to use for any political disruption operation in Belarus. They simply don't do that kind of work.

    Chances are it's just Lukashenko using Wagner's name to get some brownie points, he has been stating recently Russia has been trying to discredit him. So it makes sense to use Wagner in this cause they are under the control of the GRU.

    That said Russia has been getting worried about Belarus recently with the way Luka has been acting, so it's not unthinkable Russia has some goal in mind with Belarus.

    IMO, if Putin cannot annex or force Belarus into the Federation soon (which he has been trying to do). That area is going to become a massive security risk to the Russians.
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    Post  Hole on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:44 pm

    Would be nice to see the reaction from western media if he had some sort of "accident". In one second he would turn from "evil dictator" to "poor victim of russian aggression/Putin".
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    Post  kvs on Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:55 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:That is true, but Russia doesn't need more enemies at its border.  5M more people to hate Russia and work against it isn't good.  Already many Ukrainian supporters of Navalny and such are working against Russia in other regions of Russia.

    Russia really needs to put its foot down and deal with Belarus to get it in line.

    then again, it isn't like India isn't surrounded by much bigger and stronger enemies than Russia is.  So I guess in Russia's instance, they need to rely more on themselves and start clamping down on these 5th columnists from within while also working with bigger and stronger nations, while saving money from having to assist these smaller, pathetic nations like Belarus.

    I agree that regime change in Belorus is fully justified. But I think that Belorussians will not hate Russia as much as
    the Banderite vermin in former Ukraine. There is no centuries long history of a separate identity. In fact, the
    slide of Belorus into the economic toilet will kill the whole anti-Russia project. Faced with a choice of drinking
    some koolaid about a mythical history and living well, the masses will choose the latter. In Banderastan that
    is not so easy since there are millions of hard core Banderites invested in the anti-Russian agenda.


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