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Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

GarryB

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Post n°251

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

GarryB Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:56 am

Turkey can still sell what components it already built for, & any F-35s delivered, if any, to other users.

Turkey has not had any F-35s delivered and the parts they have made wont fit any other type of aircraft... and I suspect the US would let any F-35 user know of the dire consequences if they decided to buy such parts from Turkey so Turkey could make some money on it... honestly that money is gone and even if they sold everything they had they likely wouldn't get a fraction of what they put in back.

Since they have 10 A-400Ms, new factory isn't needed, they can be in low rate production while other planes r built/repaired/upgraded.

According to Wiki they had 10 on order and have received 9... I have not seen any evidence that anyone has refused to supply parts for A-400Ms in Turkish service and I would doubt they would try that sort of shit. Turkey would probably leave HATO and their geographic location is just to valuable to HATO and the US for them to let that happen.

According to Antonov's estimates, the world market demand for An-70 aircraft for the period up to 2035 is 300 aircraft . With more orders, more factory spaces can be added.
Twin engine variant is also an option.

Yeah, they were going to buy 50 and they knew the Russian VDV was going to buy 250... its purpose was paratroop dropping at lower flight speeds than most aircraft that size can manage... everyone else would prefer it was faster because that means it gets to where it is going quicker.

It is a Paratroopers plane... how many paratroopers does Turkey have?

Ukraine might be a prosperous country with the best soil in this world and the industry of a superpower,

Saudi Arabia would be the same if they suddenly refused to sell oil to anyone...

More than anything Ukraine's aerospace industry now reminds me of Russia's in the 90s

Except that the Ukraine willfully did this to themselves... by choice...

it's sales in Western markets panned out to be disappointing anyway.

Like many promises from the west... give up communism and be welcomed back into the international community... that was right up there with no HATO expansion.... honest... and then it was... we made no such promises....

The Mi-38 and Ka-62 never panned out as joint projects and only now is Russia starting to field them in domestic versions; it lost a lot of time in the hope of co-operating with Europe.

Indeed but then Europeans wont even help each other and will stab each other in the back when it suits, so why expect them to be nice to Russia...

Of course the main problems with the Ka-62 and the Mi-38 is that they are not really urgent because the Mi-17 is still going strong, while some western helicopters have been adopted in place of the Ka-62 sized model...

Europe wont help fund a potential rival to compete for contracts around the world... they will actively destroy any cooperation that might be created with Turkey and China...

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°252

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Tsavo Lion Sun Nov 01, 2020 5:33 pm

It is a Paratroopers plane... how many paratroopers does Turkey have?

It cam lift 10T more than the A-400M; with 4 jets as the An-188, probably 13-15T more.
Even if Turkey keeps her A-400Ms flying, An-188s will add new capabilities & more flexibility; Turks had an interest in them since 2018.
Ukraine doesn't have many paratroopers either but she uses her 3 An-70s instead of selling them & building more smaller An-178s.

GarryB

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Post n°253

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

GarryB Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:00 am

With the three An-70s, no one would buy three one off planes with no chance of getting cheap spare parts for... everything for them will be custom made and eye wateringly expensive.

With the An-188s... well lets see when they get the first one built and flying before we even talk about production...

If they put PD-35s on it it could replace the An-22 and C-17 around the world... but if is the biggest two letter word in the English language...

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°254

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Tsavo Lion Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:13 am

They can reengine 1 or 2 modified An-70s to prove & test them- it should be a lot easier to build them than the heavier Y-20s that r in large part based on the An-70.
A stretched An-188 variant max load could even approach 55-60Ts. This plane can have its own family of variants.

Rodion_Romanovic

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Post n°255

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:27 pm

Tsavo Lion wrote:They can reengine 1 or 2 modified An-70s to prove & test them- it should be a lot easier to build them than the heavier Y-20s that r in large part based on the An-70.
A stretched An-188 variant max load could even approach 55-60Ts. This plane can have its own family of variants.

I thought the An70 existed only as a single aircraft.

Two prototypes were built, but the first one was lost in a crash in 1995.

Again, if Turkey is interested and want to waste a lot of money, they can get some An-178 (but their carring capacity is overstated).

Currently Antonov is not able to organize a serial production for them, but they can do a sort of single batch production.

Of course the aircraft will become more expensive if they have to replace all the russian systems, and it will probably need a couple of years of testing before it can be certified, but it is not an impossible task, just not practical.

There are alternatives already in productions, both in china and in the west, so the appeal of the An-178 will decrease (since it is not yet a ready product)

Maybe turkey could be interested in buying production rights and doing everything there, using Ukraine just as suppliers of some parts... it can be done, but it takes a lot of time and money (and since there are a lot of parts that country 404 does not produce, this will mean dependencies from the goodwill of the suppliers in the west).

As far as the An70... it is much more difficult.

It is too large to be seen as a replacement for an12 or c130, and too similar in size to the il76, that is already in production, especially if they want to convert it to jet engines.

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°256

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Tsavo Lion Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:31 pm

Yes, there r only 2 An-70s now.
Antonov [had] plans to produce a number of versions, including the An-70-100 with new avionics to reduce crew sizes; the An-70PS search and rescue version; An-70T commercial transport; and An-70TK convertible civil passenger/transport.
https://www.flightglobal.com/ilyushin-arrives-but-antonovwho-knows/2776.article

The An-170 could have ~60T payload.

IMO, to simplify things, they could design a stretched twin jet engine variant with 30-35-40T payload & IRP that will find more customers than the An-178.
Most new projects r risky & require gov. support in 1 way or the other.

Rodion_Romanovic

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Post n°257

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic Mon Nov 02, 2020 3:25 pm

Tsavo Lion wrote:Yes, there r only 2 An-70s now.
Antonov [had] plans to produce a number of versions, including the An-70-100 with new avionics to reduce crew sizes; the An-70PS search and rescue version; An-70T commercial transport; and An-70TK convertible civil passenger/transport.
https://www.flightglobal.com/ilyushin-arrives-but-antonovwho-knows/2776.article

The An-170 could have ~60T payload.

IMO, to simplify things, they could design a stretched twin jet engine variant with 30-35-40T payload & IRP that will find more customers than the An-178.
Most new projects r risky & require gov. support in 1 way or the other.

Yeah, but the article you posted was from 1997. Without Russia financing them and ensuring a significant initial order they make no sense. Furthermore if I am not mistaken, the An-170 variant was seen as a maritime patrol aircraft.

Russia will most probably develop a maritime patrol aircraft based on the Tu-204. (In addition they will possibly do a smaller MPA based on the Il-114 ), I do not see why they should be interested in another Antonov.

I would love, however, to see one based on a modernised Yak-44, ideally with a new propfan derived from the PD12V,... but again this thing has nothing to do with the Ukraine.

Even if from tomorrow a new government promising love and friendship to Russia would be installed in Kiev, it would not be worth to have a large project dependent on them. Use them as alternative suppliers of minor parts and possibly final assembly for a few (ilyushin) aircrafts destined for their own country maybe, but nothing more.

There will not be any new Antonov aircraft developed with Russian money or destined to Russian military or Russian civil aviation, unless Antonov itself becomes a Russian company headquartered in Russia.

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°258

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Tsavo Lion Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:24 pm

..the An-170 variant was seen as a maritime patrol aircraft.

it could still be reworked/purposed as a cargo plane. Turkey, Pakistan &/ China could buy some/all those designs & licence produce them in Ukraine &/ Turkey/Pakistan/China- Russia is out of it but there may be others to invest in the type. There must be something besides A-400Ms on the market that is better & more affordable, free of any sanctions.

Rodion_Romanovic

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Post n°259

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:28 pm

Tsavo Lion wrote:

..the An-170 variant was seen as a maritime patrol aircraft.

it could still be reworked/purposed as a cargo plane. Turkey, Pakistan &/ China could buy some/all those designs & licence produce them in Ukraine &/ Turkey/Pakistan/China- Russia is out of it but there may be others to invest in the type. There must be something besides A-400Ms on the market that is better & more affordable, free of any sanctions.

Why shouldn't thèse countries order il-76 from Russia, then?
It is already in production and apparently Aviastar completed the required work to increase production rate (up to 18 per year). The engines are reliable and produced in Russia (PS-90), as well as all the rest of the equipment, so no additional risk with other countries introducing sanctions or blocking the sale to any particular country.

If you want instead something a bit smaller than the il-76 (but with a slightly wider cargo area), then Russia developed its own response to the An70, the Tu330, which has almost the same payload of the A400M, but has 2 turbofan engines instead of 4 turboprops, and was probably better than the An70 in most aspect (except as paratroopers plane for the VDV).

Unfortunately the project was frozen indefinitely due to pro-Ukrainian lobbying, but may have a second chance now...

GarryB

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Post n°260

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

GarryB Tue Nov 03, 2020 3:42 am

I thought the An70 existed only as a single aircraft.

With just one aircraft there is nothing to talk about... the effort to reengine it would be enormous and probably cost several hundred million dollars... it would rapidly become the most expensive aircraft flying because essentially it will be a one off custom designed plane.

Of course the aircraft will become more expensive if they have to replace all the russian systems, and it will probably need a couple of years of testing before it can be certified, but it is not an impossible task, just not practical.

Turkey might buy 10 at most and the Ukraine can't afford any at all... even if Iran committed to buying 10 it would not even be cost effective to make a factory to build them... they would all be hand made and therefore enormously expensive... for a plane inferior to an Il-476 which they could buy for a fraction of the price and time delays assuming no problems with anything... which is unlikely.

Yes, there r only 2 An-70s now.
Antonov [had] plans to produce a number of versions, including the An-70-100 with new avionics to reduce crew sizes; the An-70PS search and rescue version; An-70T commercial transport; and An-70TK convertible civil passenger/transport.

I would not risk a single dollar on Antonov plans.

Most new projects r risky & require gov. support in 1 way or the other.

The problem for Antonov is that the Ukrainian government is dodgy and not reliable so their support or otherwise would mean nothing anyway...

Russia will most probably develop a maritime patrol aircraft based on the Tu-204. (In addition they will possibly do a smaller MPA based on the Il-114 ), I do not see why they should be interested in another Antonov.

I can say for sure they want to get rid of all their current holdings of Antonov aircraft.

Even if from tomorrow a new government promising love and friendship to Russia would be installed in Kiev, it would not be worth to have a large project dependent on them. Use them as alternative suppliers of minor parts and possibly final assembly for a few (ilyushin) aircrafts destined for their own country maybe, but nothing more.

They would have to offer to dissolve the Ukraine and become part of the Russian Federation and I can't see that happening, and the amount of money they would need to invest to get Antonov and Motor Sich up and working again would be mind blowing.... in the short term it would be a clever move from the west to slow down Russian growth and development, but they are too short sighted to see it.

it could still be reworked/purposed as a cargo plane. Turkey, Pakistan &/ China could buy some/all those designs & licence produce them in Ukraine &/ Turkey/Pakistan/China- Russia is out of it but there may be others to invest in the type. There must be something besides A-400Ms on the market that is better & more affordable, free of any sanctions.

Could and will are two very different things... you could put a rocket motor on a bus to make it fly but when it comes back down it will be totally destroyed... which is a complex and expensive way of destroying a bus... so you could but odds are you wont even if you need to destroy the bus.

China could make its own planes... it does not need to piss money into the Ukrainian money hole... I am sure they have already learned that lesson.

Turkey bought S-400 missiles from Russia and Pakistan bought Mi-17 helicopters from Russia... why do you think it would be so hard for them to buy Il-476 aircraft from Russia, and Il-276 aircraft... and even Tu-330s when the new engines become available....

Even if the new Russian engines take another 5 years it would still be faster than the Ukraine could make new planes with new engines put into serial production anywhere.

Unfortunately the project was frozen indefinitely due to pro-Ukrainian lobbying, but may have a second chance now...

Well that lobbying would have folded now... there is no need to support the An-70 in Russia now... in fact I would think a new project to use those propblades would be a valuable use for the development money spent to make them... try them on a Bear perhaps... an MPA version perhaps where speed is not the priority and endurance and efficiency is more important.

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°261

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Tsavo Lion Tue Nov 03, 2020 5:21 am

I doubt Putin will allow sale of IL-476s to Turks with current tense relations & pressing need for new transports in the VTA. The same with France & A-400Ms.
Turkey OTH wants to develop her own industry- hence her interest in the An-188 license production.

Rodion_Romanovic

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Post n°262

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:45 pm

https://ukraina.ru/news/20201105/1029514675.html

Kiev changes again the head of Antonov for the second time in a few months.

By the way, Dimitri Kiva, that held this post a few years ago, moved in 2016 in Azerbaijan (was he responsible for the Azeri UAV strategy? )

On another news, apparently Kiev wants to order 3 new An-178... will they manage to satisfy this order?

kvs

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Post n°263

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

kvs Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:39 am

Rodion_Romanovic wrote:https://ukraina.ru/news/20201105/1029514675.html

Kiev changes again the head of Antonov for the second time in a few months.

By the way, Dimitri Kiva, that held this post a few years ago, moved in 2016 in Azerbaijan (was he responsible for the Azeri UAV strategy? )

On another news, apparently Kiev wants to order 3 new An-178... will they manage to satisfy this order?

Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The Kiev regime typifies the svidomite retardation sweeping the ex-Soviet republics aside from
Russia. These clowns think that destroying all of their existing industries will open up the way for fresh NATzO friendly ones. This
level of retardation is simply stellar. We already see what happens when you get a makeover into a 4th world country, the only
jobs you have are sweatshop ones.

PapaDragon

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Post n°264

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

PapaDragon Mon Nov 09, 2020 2:26 am

Maybe they plan on launching brand new line of wood stoves so they need skilled management to supervise the cutting edge production process?

GarryB

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Post n°265

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

GarryB Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:19 am

I doubt Putin will allow sale of IL-476s to Turks with current tense relations & pressing need for new transports in the VTA.

AFAIK they are negotiating another batch of S-400 that may include domestic production of the missiles... why would Russia not sell transport planes to Turkey?

The same with France & A-400Ms.
Turkey OTH wants to develop her own industry- hence her interest in the An-188 license production.

You already said there was a Chinese plane in production that was essentially based on the An-70... why would Turkey not simply buy some of those?

BTW they ordered 10 A-400Ms and have 9 of them... what makes you think they need more?

On another news, apparently Kiev wants to order 3 new An-178... will they manage to satisfy this order?

Will be telling... if they actually make them then there is a chance Turkey and other countries might order some too... But I wont be holding my breath...

Isos

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Post n°266

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Isos Mon Nov 09, 2020 11:55 am

BTW they ordered 10 A-400Ms and have 9 of them... what makes you think they need more?

There are rumours that EU will sanction Turkey and forbid the sell of spare parts for their A-400M that was used to bring their syrian proxies in Libya.

Very soon they will have none flyable in service.

GarryB

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Post n°267

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

GarryB Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:24 am

Until the sanctions are applied they are meaningless.

If they are applied their simplest and cheapest option would be to buy those Chinese transports you say are modelled on the An-70... which would be very amusing because they could probably buy 50 for the price of the 10 A-400M aircraft... and with such a purchase they could probably justify replacing avionics and systems with Turkish systems and equipment and get into talks of international sales of a Turkish/Chinese version.

They could also buy Il-476 aircraft instead of A-400Ms and do the same... replace some Russian components with Turkish components and offer to sell such modified aircraft to countries that would not normally buy Russian aircraft but are friendly to Turkey like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and places like Malaysia and Indonesia etc etc.

When the US said Turkey couldn't have their F-35s because they bought S-400 I thought that was a lucky escape for Turkey because F-35 will just be too expensive to operate for such countries... and the S-400 is a very good system. But getting Il-476s or that Chinese transport instead of the A-400M might be another good deal for them to save money and get better aircraft for a better price...

I mean Turkey was making wing components for a fifth gen fighter... there will be parts of large transport aircraft they could probably easily make for themselves too...

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°268

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Tsavo Lion Tue Nov 10, 2020 9:50 pm

If they are applied their simplest and cheapest option would be to buy those Chinese transports you say are modelled on the An-70... which would be very amusing because they could probably buy 50 for the price of the 10 A-400M aircraft... and with such a purchase they could probably justify replacing avionics and systems with Turkish systems and equipment and get into talks of international sales of a Turkish/Chinese version.

I doubt they r at that level with the PRC; in any case, the PLAAF needs them more & it'll be a long time before any could be delivered. China could also sanction them later with parts sales &/ support ban.

They could also buy Il-476 aircraft instead of A-400Ms and do the same... replace some Russian components with Turkish components and offer to sell such modified aircraft to countries that would not normally buy Russian aircraft but are friendly to Turkey like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and places like Malaysia and Indonesia etc etc.

they r not in the same class, & Turkey doesn't need these heavy fuel guzzlers; the 2 last nations u posted already ordered A-400Ms; the others can get a few 2nd hand IL-76s from other operators & modify/modernize/upgrade them in Ukraine for le$$.
The An-188 is the safest & cheapest option for Turkey- Ukraine isn't in a position to sanction any1, & will be so for as long as she exists.

Rodion_Romanovic

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Post n°269

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:05 pm

Tsavo Lion wrote:

If they are applied their simplest and cheapest option would be to buy those Chinese transports you say are modelled on the An-70... which would be very amusing because they could probably buy 50 for the price of the 10 A-400M aircraft... and with such a purchase they could probably justify replacing avionics and systems with Turkish systems and equipment and get into talks of international sales of a Turkish/Chinese version.

I doubt they r at that level with the PRC; in any case, the PLAAF needs them more & it'll be a long time before any could be delivered. China could also sanction them later with parts sales &/ support ban.

They could also buy Il-476 aircraft instead of A-400Ms and do the same... replace some Russian components with Turkish components and offer to sell such modified aircraft to countries that would not normally buy Russian aircraft but are friendly to Turkey like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and places like Malaysia and Indonesia etc etc.

they r not in the same class, & Turkey doesn't need these heavy fuel guzzlers; the 2 last nations u posted already ordered A-400Ms; the others can get a few 2nd hand IL-76s from other operators & modify/modernize/upgrade them in Ukraine for le$$.
The An-188 is the safest & cheapest option for Turkey- Ukraine isn't in a position to sanction any1, & will be so for as long as she exists.

Tsavo, there is a big problem. The Ukraine is not able alone to produce an aircraft. It needs a lot of parts that have to be supplied by other states (and turkey cannot help on that either). They may only produce the airframe and possibly some 8 tons thrust engines (but those would be too small for the intended payload of the aircraft). All the other parts and systems have to be supplied by somebody else. They do not want to have to do with Russia, so it would be either a bunch of european states or the US. France and the US are not currently in the best relationship with Turkey, and even if they were they would not like to lose sales for their aircrafts. It remains China, but why should they supply parts to the Ukraine? They got from them what they wanted: a new design for their transport aircraft and engine technologies (while a bit obsolete, they are still better than what China had before).

Rodion_Romanovic

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Post n°270

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:12 pm

Has anybody heard of this UAV?

https://southfront.org/ukraine-unveils-its-indigenous-sokol-300-combat-uav/

The Kiev military-industrial design bureau “Luch” announced the unveiling of the layout of the combat unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) “Sokol-300”.

The model of the drone was presented today on November 6th at the premises of an aircraft building plant in Zhulyany, a suburb of Kiev, where the Igor Sikorsky international airport is located.

The company has been working on the model of the drone over the last year and a half, the idea of the project has been thought out and polished over several years.

The drone is based on the flight principle of cruise missiles, which are launched by the Ukrainian RK-360 missile used by the “Neptune” system. The rockets for Neptune are produced at the Luch KB. The Sokol-300 drone is capable of carrying 200-250 kilograms of payload.

I do not understand why they mention there the Neptune antiship missile, when the UAV may be propelled by either a rotax engine or a small.turboprop...

Probably they just mean the way of remote control and communication...

Anyway this kind of products is currently fully in the capabilities of the ukraine, even if its weapon systems and available missiles are not in the same league of those that US or Russia have.

EDIT:
Still it is a bit funny that they provide completely different speeds, range and endurance with uses of completely different engines. We are talking about 3 different UAV with very different characteristics.

Depending on the type of engine, the characteristics of the drone also differ.

Maximum speed:
AI-450T2 – 580 km/h;
MS-500V-05S/SE – 466 km/h;
Rotax 914 – 210 km/h.
Flight duration:
AI-450T2 – 5 hours;
MS-500V-05S/SE – 3 hours;
Rotax 914 – 2.6 hours.
Range of flight:
AI-450T2 – 1300 km;
MS-500V-05S/SE – 1000 km;
Rotax 914 – 3300 km.

It is like saying that a family car and a supercar are the same product. They just have different top speed and range because of the engines Rolling Eyes

Last edited by Rodion_Romanovic on Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:25 pm; edited 2 times in total

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°271

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Tsavo Lion Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:15 pm

Turkey won't need more than 10 An-188s; for those, Ukraine & Turkey would get parts (if not stockpiled already) before starting producing them. Some, like avionics could be cannibalized from their A-400Ms &/ C-130s.

Rodion_Romanovic

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Post n°272

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:23 pm

Tsavo Lion wrote:Turkey won't need more than 10 An-188s; for those, Ukraine & Turkey would get parts (if not stockpiled already) before starting producing them. Some, like avionics could be cannibalized from their A-400Ms &/ C-130s.

Avionics and control systems are among the most complex in a modern aircraft.

You cannot take from different aircrafts and put there without changes.

If you have a functioning industry, like the Chineses, you could think about investing time and money and try to use them as a starting point for your new products, but it is not worth to do it if you do not have a big enough market.

Of course for most of those aircrafts there are already existing Russian parts that could be delivered...since Russia was involved in their creation.

Or alternatively western firms will be happy to design and produce dedicated solutions, if Ukraine and or Turkey can pay of course... and hoping that no sanction will block the delivery after the parts will have been already paid, of course...

Tsavo Lion

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Post n°273

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Tsavo Lion Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:37 pm

Both Ukraine & Turkey knew of the danger of sanctions on parts, yet went ahead with mutual interest in the type. Either the ratio of foreign parts isn't big, or they expect to get them regardless, &/ find their substitutes.

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Post n°274

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

Rodion_Romanovic Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:56 pm

Tsavo Lion wrote:Both Ukraine & Turkey knew of the danger of sanctions on parts, yet went ahead with mutual interest in the type. Either the ratio of foreign parts isn't big, or they expect to get them regardless, &/ find their substitutes.

they are just talks. They even mentioned briefly An-124 production, and this is impossible without Russia (China could maybe achieve it in ten years time if the Ukraine sells them everything they have inherited from Soviet times)

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GarryB

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Post n°275

Re: Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

GarryB Wed Nov 11, 2020 12:40 am

I doubt they r at that level with the PRC; in any case, the PLAAF needs them more & it'll be a long time before any could be delivered. China could also sanction them later with parts sales &/ support ban.

First of all why would China impose sanctions on Turkey... that is a game the west plays... Russia and China generally only impose sanctions in response to sanctions.

Second it is not a big deal... if China does not want the sale then Il-476s will certainly be much cheaper than anything Ukraine could make and anything Turkey buys from the EU.

As I mentioned their biggest problem is volume... they likely only need 10-20 at most which is not really enough to justify too many changes and modifications.

operators & modify/modernize/upgrade them in Ukraine for le$$.

Ukraine doesn't have the capacity to upgrade anything, and would likely end up ripping Turkey off.

The Il-476 is a much more capable aircraft than the A-400M and is probably more fuel efficient as well.

The Il-76 is an excellent plane that is popular and widely used... the Il-476 is even better.

The An-188 is the safest & cheapest option for Turkey- Ukraine isn't in a position to sanction any1, & will be so for as long as she exists.

Wrong on so many levels. The An-188 is a suggestion... it does not exist and if Turkey can't afford to order 500 and pay for production facilities to be built then it is unlikely to ever be economically viable. The Ukraine is on a very short leash with the US at the other end... after picking S-400s over F-35s and now trying to buy non EU transports I really don't think the US will let the Ukraine bypass HATO weapons buying protocol.

The Ukraine isn't in a position to make car licence plates let alone a new transport plane design that is largely untested.

Turkey won't need more than 10 An-188s;

That is a bad thing... if they had orders for hundreds of An-188s then some investors might put up some money to create production facilities, but for an order of 10 for Turkey and perhaps 3 more for the Ukraine it simply would not be worth it...

for those, Ukraine & Turkey would get parts (if not stockpiled already) before starting producing them.

From where? Who has parts for An-188s?

Some, like avionics could be cannibalized from their A-400Ms &/ C-130s.

Which means their A-400Ms and now C-130s become unusable faster because parts are being stripped to make a new plane that will need a complete redesign if it is going to be fitted with A-400M and C-130 parts... and if the problem is that they can't get parts for their A-400M then why on earth would they include parts from the A-400M in their alternative replacement.... that is just stupid.

That is like Venezuela saying... hey we have American F-16s we can't use any more because they are not supplying parts and support any more... instead of just buying off the shelf equivalents that wont be sanctioned like MiG-29M aircraft, you would be suggesting they get Iran to make an F-5 variant that uses parts from their F-16s and F-4s to fly... a frankenstein piece of shit that would never fly... but the Iranians are suggesting it so it should be a good idea...

Turkey does not need to do anything at the moment because the EU has not imposed any sanctions on them and even if they did they could say they are leaving HATO and are going to close all HATO bases in Turkey and send all foreign troops home and the EU will drop all sanctions and be a good bitch for a change.

Of course for most of those aircrafts there are already existing Russian parts that could be delivered...since Russia was involved in their creation.

The Ukraine wont cooperate with Russia in their programme with Iran to produce An-140s... why would they cooperate with Russia in a programme to make An-188s for Turkey?

Ukraine would not be happy seeing Russia make money out of what they see as their plane even though they can't make it themselves.

Or alternatively western firms will be happy to design and produce dedicated solutions, if Ukraine and or Turkey can pay of course... and hoping that no sanction will block the delivery after the parts will have been already paid, of course...

The only countries in Europe that can make parts for a transport plane... already do... it is called the A-400M. Why would they help Turkey evade the sanctions their own countries are imposing on Turkey?

Both Ukraine & Turkey knew of the danger of sanctions on parts, yet went ahead with mutual interest in the type. Either the ratio of foreign parts isn't big, or they expect to get them regardless, &/ find their substitutes.

It is all just talk at the moment... most likely from Turkey to try to convince Europe not to impose sanctions on the A-400M.

The Ukraine has said a lot of things over the years... including that Russia is invading their country and trying to steal the Donbass region too...

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