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    Ukrainian Aviation Industry: Discussion

    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:37 pm

    Turkey may also get help from the UK- they work on the 5th gen fighter now .

    So how big will that market be... the UK and the Ukrainian air forces... they have started work on a 5th gen fighter now... in 10 years they might have something, but what will it be up against?

    Who else will want it?

    When was the last time Antonov made a fighter aircraft.... when was the last time the UK made a fighter on its own?

    When the EU shift their economic business out of London then the UK is going to be in a terrible situation.... a terrible situation that might make the Scots declare independence and perhaps even the Welsh to join them....

    The irony is that the English voted to leave the EU because essentially they were being told what to do by people they can't elect or remove... and the people of Scotland like the EU but don't like London for the same reasons England doesn't like Brussels.

    Crazy.

    Their real problem was they didn't actually have a good discussion about what they actually wanted and I think a lot of people there probably would have been happy to stay but to try to get some reform as to how the EU works.... perhaps make it an economic thing only and not so political and invasive and (ironically) so undemocratic...

    The Antonov plant will still be fixing & modifying planes, even if it doesn't build new 1s- I doubt they'll close it down completely any time soon.

    If it keeps screwing its customers then it wont have much future at all... I suspect if the Chinese get their money back they might already be going tits up because the Ukrainian government can't afford to save them...

    Even if they keep making spares for existing Antonov types... half their market was Russia... sorry... half their paying market was Russia, which has been cut off... they are sorting out their own sources for parts and also replacement aircraft types.

    Pretty soon they will start mass production of these replacement aircraft and to start selling them abroad to current operators of those very same obsolete aircraft.

    Certainly China has made their own replacements and they will be exporting as well.

    In such a situation what chance does Antonov really have?

    Their main problem is that their name means something in Russia and Russia dominated markets... burning their bridges with Russia has meant Russia is substituting and replacing and the material they are replacing it with is better and newer... how can the Antonov compete.

    Antonov could be saved but it would require dropping all sanctions against Russia and allowing all trade to open up... which is not going to happen and even if it did Russia has already committed big money and resources into replacements which will be ready very soon....

    In other words it is not going to happen... however much the UK or Turkey help.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Thu Nov 26, 2020 11:50 pm

    Qatar to Invest Billions of Dollars in Turkey Amid Currency Crisis

    Turkey doesn't want to be dependent on Russia & China for aviation related imports- hence her turn to Ukraine & UK. She has A-400Ms but will never get production help & rights for it. If it was that good & free of future sanctions, they wouldn't bother with An-188 (that would be cheaper to operate & be at least as capable) & focus just on UAVs, helos, & fighters instead. 
    Ukraine Forming Venture With Turkey to Produce 48 Bayraktar Tb2 Drones


    The UK hadn't built cargo planes in decades & can always buy C-130Js & A-400Ms. But who is to say that An-188s won't be useful to UK, Canada, & Australia, besides those in SE Asia, Africa & L. America that don't have transports in that niche? 
    Even the US been looking at A-400M as it can lift 17Ts more than their C-130J & could be useful. An-77/188s can lift 27-30Ts more.



    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:10 pm; edited 5 times in total (Reason for editing : add text, links)
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sat Dec 05, 2020 4:10 pm

    Breaking news: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3111322/chinese-military-testing-home-made-engines-y-20-transport

    These engines would enable much lighter An-188 to lift ~55-60Ts, if not more, & a twinjet variant ~35-40Ts.

    VSU will order 3 An-178s: https://www.unian.net/economics/transport/an-178-vpervye-za-29-let-v-ukraine-postroyat-tri-novyh-samoleta-an-178-novosti-ukraina-11245085.html
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Sat Dec 05, 2020 6:51 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Breaking news: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3111322/chinese-military-testing-home-made-engines-y-20-transport

    These engines would enable much lighter An-188 to lift ~55-60Ts, if not more, & a twinjet variant ~35-40Ts.

    VSU will order 3 An-178s: https://www.unian.net/economics/transport/an-178-vpervye-za-29-let-v-ukraine-postroyat-tri-novyh-samoleta-an-178-novosti-ukraina-11245085.html

    Good for China that they are making progress, but those new chinese engines are still quite worse than the 30 years old PS90.


    The source said the WS-20 engine is designed to give the planes a bigger lift and longer range and has been installed on one Y-20 for testing.
    “It will probably take three or more years to install such engines to other transport aircraft,” the source continued.


    Anyway even if the ukraine would be interested in buying them, it would take a while before those engines can receive a western type certificate.

    Furthermore adapt the engines to another airframe takes time and money. It is not something you would do for an aircraft without any tangible orderbook. And even if they agree to do that they need to redo quite a bit of the development work and testing of the An70.

    Concerning the news for the an178, i believe i posted it myself a couple of weeks ago, even if at that time it was not "official". Let's see what happens. At the moment the only thing that exists for that aircraft is a prototype for flight test. Are they going "Chinese" also for replacing the internal systems of the An178 previously provided by Russia? Because if they want to put western equipment the aircraft will lose the only good point that it had (being cheap).
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Sun Dec 06, 2020 4:17 am

    Another question that needs to be answered is... how keen will China be to cooperate with a company they invested billions of dollars in already and have had seized by the Ukrainian government?

    More investment dollars or euros or chinese currency could easily be seen as ripe for pinching by the Ukrainian government again if things get tight.... and all that risk for what?

    China makes its own engines and its own planes... selling engines to Ukraine so they can produce aircraft in direct competition to Chinese potential sales makes absolutely no sense for China.

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Dec 06, 2020 12:42 pm

    An-188s won't be directly competing with Y-20s or any other current Chinese made plane.
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    Post  PapaDragon Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:13 pm

    Tsavo Lion wrote:An-188s won't be directly competing with Y-20s or any other current Chinese made plane.

    Things that will never exist will not be competing with anything

    You just wasted some more server space repeating the obvious

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Sun Dec 06, 2020 1:52 pm

    Thanks for ur concern, but time will tell! I won't be surprised if China ordered a few dozen An-188s too- she doesn't have planes in that niche & has to rely on Y-8/9/20s & 2nd hand IL-76s; buying IL-476s will cost more & their Y-20s r better.
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:14 am

    If they think their Y-20s are better why on earth would they buy a second rate foreign alternative from a company and a country that is already cheating them out of billions of dollars they invested already?

    If it is so easy for China to make transport planes better than Russian transport planes why on earth would China or anyone waste time on Ukrainian promises?

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Dec 07, 2020 1:08 am

    The Y-20 is better than the IL-76, but An-188 has no Chinese counterpart. 
    They'll eventually get a settlement to recover the $ invested; then may resume business.
    Rodion_Romanovic
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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Mon Dec 07, 2020 5:02 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:The Y-20 is better than the IL-76, but An-188 has no Chinese counterpart. 
    They'll eventually get a settlement to recover the $ invested; then may resume business.
    the only thing of the y20 that is "better" is the fact that it has a wider cargo bay. As far as the max payload, with the existing engines (even the new ones), it is not better than the il-(4)76. Actually the PS90 engines are considerably better than the new chinese engines you were advertising in another post.

    Furthermore the An70 or  its derivative are in the same class.  It is an aircraft with 4mwide cargo bay and more than 40 tons of payload. If you want to equip it with 4 turbofan it becomes practically only a slightly shorter version of the Y20 (41 m vs 47).

    Actually, if we speak of absurd possibilities and just some fiction, the Tu330 would have been a much better fit for China, given their current transport aircrafts composition.
    Even if that is not fundamental, since they have a 25 tons payload turboprop (y9, the an12 modernised copy) and the Y20.

    The only Antonov plane currently of interest for china is the An-124, but Ukraine cannot really help with that.

    P.S. An70 included a few interesting concepts and was not at all a bad aircraft, however China already got everything they wanted from that project and included it in the Y20.
    The y 20 is basically a slightly longer An70 with 4 turbofan. Why should they need to buy from the Ukraine the same aircraft.

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Mon Dec 07, 2020 12:22 pm

    the only thing of the y20 that is "better" is the fact that it has a wider cargo bay. As far as the max payload, with the existing engines (even the new ones), it is not better than the il-(4)76.- true. Actually the PS90 engines are considerably better than the new chinese engines you were advertising in another post.- they may be as good, we don't know for sure. Actually, if we speak of absurd possibilities and just some fiction, the Tu330 would have been a much better fit for China, given their current transport aircrafts composition.- a twin jet An-188 variant with 30-35Ts payload would be available sooner, & for le$$. The Japanese C-2 can lift as much as A-400M. 
    Even if that is not fundamental, since they have a 25 tons payload turboprop (y9, the an12 modernised copy) and the Y20.- the An-70 isn't fundamental to Russia either, but it would make their VTA more balanced. The Europeans & the British could also keep flying only C-130s & C-17s but developed the An-70 influenced A-400M that suits them well.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:46 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add text)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Tue Dec 08, 2020 3:12 am

    Actually the PS90 engines are considerably better than the new chinese engines you were advertising in another post.- they may be as good, we don't know for sure.

    Even if we were in a generous (ie blind) mood and said they were, PS-90 engines are 25 year old plus engines on the verge of being replaced by the all new unified PD family of jet engines for a range of platforms.


    Actually, if we speak of absurd possibilities and just some fiction, the Tu330 would have been a much better fit for China, given their current transport aircrafts composition.- a twin engine An-188 variant with 30-35t payload would be available sooner, & for le$$

    With what engine?

    the An-70 isn't fundamental to Russia either, but it would make their VTA more balanced.

    The An-70 was funded and driven by the Russians because it was going to suit them, but Ukraine have made that impossible so they essentially separated their best new design from the only country likely to buy it in any numbers... which has totally killed the project.

    No amount of tantrums or complaints will change that... you talk about this or that as being possible and being talked about, but for everything that is talked about... there is only money for good ideas that will make lots of money... even just breaking even is not good enough.

    China might buy a Ukrainian design or take features from it but it makes no sense for them to get the Ukraine on board for joint production... the Ukraine are not their brothers and not their neighbours either... they want to make money and build aircraft... there is no need to save the Ukraine for anything... the Ukraine had a powerful and impressive aircraft design bureau, but that is gone and its capacity is fading and disappearing... even if they could make aircraft now you would have to pay for everything and they probably can't make 100% of any aircraft on their own anyway, which means expensive integration of parts from other sources which renders former designs moot.... you would need to restart testing etc... it is simply not worth it... the only country that would fund that was Russia and it was doing that, but now... they wont touch it with a barge pole because they got burned once, there is no value in doing it again for them.

    That is not to say Russia will actively work to break the Ukraine, but they have no reason to help them either when all they get from them is anger and spite.

    The Europeans & the British could also keep flying only C-130s & C-17s but developed the An-70 influenced A-400M that suits them well.

    The Soviet equivalent of the C-130 and C-17 are the An-12 and An-22... having a plane in the middle is useful for middle weight loads... for the Europeans it is the A-400M, and for the Russians the line up will be Il-276, Il-476, and Il-106...
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed Dec 09, 2020 11:04 pm

    having a plane in the middle is useful for middle weight loads... for the Europeans it is the A-400M, and for the Russians the line up will be Il-276, Il-476, and Il-106...

    That's a poor lineup, substituting a plane of 37T (or An-70 47T) payload with a plane of 60T payload. The Russians got screwed twice: losing $100M investment & now having to spend more on building & operating extra IL-476s. They could save more by building IL-112 size tilt-rotors or An-70 size quadrotors for the VDV!

    https://nv.ua/biz/markets/an-225-mriya-vozobnovlyaet-kommercheskie-polety-novosti-ukrainy-50129137.html

    It turned out to be useful again!
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:53 am

    Now it's official: https://112.ua/obshchestvo/vpervye-za-29-let-ukraina-zakazyvaet-u-antonova-tri-an-178-dlya-armii-562762.html

    https://president.gov.ua/news/vpershe-za-roki-nezalezhnosti-derzhava-zamovlyaye-u-antonova-65845
    kvs
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    Post  kvs Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:00 am

    Tsavo Lion wrote:Now it's official: https://112.ua/obshchestvo/vpervye-za-29-let-ukraina-zakazyvaet-u-antonova-tri-an-178-dlya-armii-562762.html

    https://president.gov.ua/news/vpershe-za-roki-nezalezhnosti-derzhava-zamovlyaye-u-antonova-65845

    Let us know when the order is delivered.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Wed Dec 30, 2020 3:59 am

    Especially now Antonov is gutted.

    Remember the T-84 Oplot order for Thailand? And the Kharkov plant was in better condition then.
    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Wed Dec 30, 2020 1:34 pm

    kvs wrote:
    Tsavo Lion wrote:Now it's official: https://112.ua/obshchestvo/vpervye-za-29-let-ukraina-zakazyvaet-u-antonova-tri-an-178-dlya-armii-562762.html

    https://president.gov.ua/news/vpershe-za-roki-nezalezhnosti-derzhava-zamovlyaye-u-antonova-65845

    Let us know when the order is delivered.
    they just need to finish the 1 Peru rejected & build 2 new planes. No need to rely on me- u can subscribe to AN-178 on Google News to stay up to date on it.


    Last edited by Tsavo Lion on Wed Dec 30, 2020 2:58 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : add link)
    GarryB
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    Post  GarryB Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:57 am

    That's a poor lineup, substituting a plane of 37T (or An-70 47T) payload with a plane of 60T payload.

    Don't think of the Il-476 as being a 60 ton payload aircraft... think of it as being a 47 ton payload aircraft with 13 tons of extra fuel and much much much better flight range than the An-70 and also better flight speed so it gets there faster.

    The Russians got screwed twice: losing $100M investment & now having to spend more on building & operating extra IL-476s. They could save more by building IL-112 size tilt-rotors or An-70 size quadrotors for the VDV!

    They got screwed by the Ukrainians once over a period of about 25 years but it stopped about 6 years ago... and they are filling the gaps and solving the problems created by relations with Ukraine.

    Producing Il-112s and Il-276s will fill the gaps the lighter antonovs created... An-24/26/32 and An-12, but for the VDV an upgraded Il-476 with propfan engines based on PD-18s would likely be a much better solution than any convertiplane that would be a serious money drain for very little real payoff.

    It turned out to be useful again!

    Distributing vaccines around the world hardly sounds like a practical payload for such an aircraft... suspect it is more political than economic.

    Now it's official

    Yeah, orders for the Ukrainian military so they can say they are ordering it in the hope that a foreign country will buy some now that the Ukrainian military use it... except orders are not production... can they even make them and even if they can will it be paid for or are they hoping export orders will pay for setting up production again... lets wait till they are delivered to the Ukrainian military for service shall we?

    they just need to finish the 1 Peru rejected & build 2 new planes.

    This is good.... money they spend on these planes is money they can't spend on artillery shells and bullets to kill their own people in the east...

    It will also answer the question... can they still build planes rather than museum or show pieces...
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    Post  owais.usmani Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:38 am

    I couldn't find a suitable thread for this news, so posting it here. Mods can move it to relevant thread if there is one

    https://ria.ru/20210205/nakazanie-1596104652.html

    Experts explained how China will "punish" Ukraine because of Motor Sich


    MOSCOW, February 5 - RIA Novosti. The Ukrainian newspaper " Business Capital " told how China will "punish" Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelensky because of the scandal over the purchase of the Motor Sich defense enterprise .
    Earlier, Zelensky put into effect the decision of the NSDC to impose sanctions against the shareholders of Motor Sich for three years. In particular, the sanctions affected four Chinese companies and one citizen of the PRC. The representative of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Wenbin, commenting on the decision Zelensky said that Beijing hopes to ensure Ukraine's legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies. The Chinese company Beijing Skyrizon Aviation Industry Investment Co., which is a shareholder of Motor Sich, considers the sanctions imposed by Kiev against it to be groundless. Chinese investors hired three international law firms to recover $ 3.5 billion in damages from Ukraine.

    The conflict may "backfire" by a serious cooling of relations with the authorities of the PRC and will have negative economic consequences, writes Delovaya Stolitsa. As the expert on international politics of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Iliya Kus told the publication, the result of the scandal will be an increase in mistrust between the parties. "It will be more difficult to communicate with China, and even more difficult to attract investors from there," he said.

    In addition, according to him, Ukraine will see a decline in cooperation with China within the framework of the New Silk Road initiative. Kusa pointed out that due to the conflict, Ukraine is expected to activate China in international courts.
    In turn, economist Aleksey Kushch said that the "One Belt, One Road" project, on which Kiev could earn 10-15% of its GDP, now "can be forgotten." According to him, because of the scandal, Ukraine has forever fallen off the radar of Chinese investors, and in the coming years may lose its market for goods. Thus, China, as one of the largest buyers of Ukrainian agricultural products, can reorient itself to the Russian market.
    Motor Sich is an enterprise in Zaporozhye that develops, manufactures, repairs and maintains aircraft gas turbine engines for airplanes and helicopters, as well as industrial gas turbine units. Motor Sich products are used on airplanes and helicopters in 120 countries. In August last year, then- US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expressed concern to the Ukrainian president in connection with China's plans to buy the plant.

    lol!

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    Post  Cyberspec Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:40 pm

    owais.usmani wrote:

    Experts explained how China will "punish" Ukraine because of Motor Sich


    They do seem to enjoy shooting themselves in the foot

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    kvs
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    Post  kvs Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:41 pm



    So the Ukrainian equivalent of the FAA has decertified the An-178 and An-132. Things must be really bad if the prestige
    projects touted in the Ukr propaganda media are flopping.

    I was surprised to learn that the An-178 has a serious design defect. It is unbalanced towards the rear end and requires
    1.5 tons of counterbalance behind the pilot's cabin.

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    miketheterrible
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    Post  miketheterrible Tue Feb 16, 2021 2:45 pm

    Didnt Tsavo keep projecting the need for this AN aircraft and how everyone and their dog will buy it?
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    Post  kvs Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:01 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:Didnt Tsavo keep projecting the need for this AN aircraft and how everyone and their dog will buy it?

    Tsavo troll-tard looks to be some yanqui with Ukr ties. Probably comes from the Nazis who ran away to the west at the end of WWII.

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    Tsavo Lion
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    Post  Tsavo Lion Tue Feb 16, 2021 3:49 pm

    FYI, I was born in 1966 in Odessa, a Russian port city built on earlier Turkish fortress Eni Dünya, to a Jewish family. During the Nazi occupation, my grand grand grand father was killed by his Ukrainian neighbors. Came to the US in 1988.
    Regarding the An-178, it could still be redesigned; like with most new planes, its later versions may get a lot better.
    The IL-112 also has weight problems & the IL-276 is still only on paper.

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