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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

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    kvs

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  kvs on Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:29 pm

    miketheterrible wrote:They won't win. And if they win in court, Russia will ignore it for good reason. These kangaroo courts mean nothing now days. West and Ukraine broke all laws regarding the WTO, so they set themselves up also for large amount of lawsuits.

    Anyway, Russia won't tear down it's bridge because some idiots in another country tell them too.

    Indeed. If the UN Convention is used to screw over Russia as with the Olympics, then Russia should withdraw from it. The US
    does not even abide by this Convention.

    par far

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  par far on Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:58 pm

    "What’s Brewing? British, American, Canadian Advisers Arrive in Donbass."


    https://www.globalresearch.ca/whats-brewing-british-american-canadian-advisers-arrive-in-donbass/5629652

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    Ispan

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Ispan on Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:25 am

    Very interesting analysis, one of the best I have seen. Sobering read

    http://antimaydan.info/2018/02/oleg_matvejchev_ukrainskaya_armiya_razbezhitsya_za_dva_dnya.html

    Oleg Matveychev: Ukrainian army will run up in two days


    iev prepares military provocations to disrupt the World Cup in Russia

    In an interview with the publication Ukrayina.ru well-known Russian political scientist and political consultant Oleg Matveichev assessed various scenarios for the development of the military conflict in eastern Ukraine

    - On the eve of the fourth anniversary of the so-called revolution of dignity, the Kiev regime has visibly intensified in its struggle against domestic political opponents. At the same time, it seems that Petro Poroshenko and his team stop paying attention to Western public opinion. Without special ceremony, for example, Mikhail Saakashvili was expelled from the country ...

    - Contradictions are exacerbated, because elections are approaching. President Poroshenko very clearly understands that he is not elected for a second term - neither from the first nor from the second round is it possible. And the best option for him is to cancel the elections altogether, declare a military or state of emergency.

    "Right on the level ground?"

    - We need a relatively small military provocation - either in the Transnistrian region, which is unlikely, or in the Donbas, which is likely. The script can be very simple. On a narrow section of the front, some forces are concentrated, which, as a result of a sudden offensive, capture five or six settlements of the People's Republic of China and the People's Republic of Germany. Naturally, there is a counteroffensive immediately, and those people who carried out the invasion, capture, start abruptly at the command to retreat to pre-prepared positions, releasing not only these five points that they seized, but also give them ten more. Naturally, the seizure of these ten items will be immediately interpreted by Poroshenko and the world community as Russia's aggression, the seizure of foreign territories by it. In the country, a state of emergency is introduced, while Poroshenko announces his victory - that is, he stopped the invasion, the valiant Ukrainian army stopped the hordes of the enemy. And thwarted Putin's plans to seize Kiev.

    Extreme position will mean the transfer of control to a large extent to the army and paramilitary structures, including every Nazi battalion. I will be imposed curfews and other restrictions - especially in the media, social networks and politics. Rallies and meetings will be banned.

    All this will make it almost impossible for opposition political activities. Everyone will crouch and be quiet, and they will not understand anything. And the president will become a dictator and will be an iron hand to guide the order he needs, presenting himself as the only subject of any possible agreements - with Americans, Russians, Europeans.

    "Can such things be accurately calculated?" Five villages to take, ten to give, a foothold ... And if something goes wrong with them, and if the troops of the republics - themselves or with the help of the Russian army, in kontnaspestenii accidentally grab not a dozen, but hundreds of settlements? And the main thing: it is in any case a lot of blood. Can Poroshenko make such a decision? And will the Americans allow?

    - To shed blood or to throw thousands of people to death is for Poroshenko and his colleagues already passed stage. It will be necessary - they will do it again. It's more difficult with Americans. The deportation of Saakashvili and other actions is just Poroshenko's struggle with the American project. He wants to get out of Washington's control, untie his hands. It removes people who disturb public opinion, increase its anti-rating, intensify protest moods in society, prepare the ground for its overthrow or defeat in elections. But some of his opponents are supported by Americans.

    - Well, it's clear, Americans lay eggs on different baskets. Petro Poroshenko does not need such competition. However, it seems to me that they will not refuse him support, as long as he is active on the anti-Russian front.

    "They will not refuse." And Poroshenko will try to convince the Americans to allow him big provocations against Russia. For example, to break the World Cup, which would be very much like Washington. If he holds a combination, which we have already described, on the eve of the championship, will expose Russia as an aggressor and invader, provoke a boycott. And under the noise and at his own martial law ...

    - So you admit the possibility of a sharp aggravation of the military situation in the Donbass in the spring? After all, the finals of the world football championship begin in May?

    - I am sure that Kiev is now doing everything to allow the Americans to approve, accept this adventure. Apparently, this approval will not be. Because Vladislav Surkov warned Kurt Volcker very clearly that any attempt to call on the LNR-DPR will end with the gigantic defeat of the entire Ukrainian army and the creation of Novorossia. And the whole Ukrainian project will fail. Of course, they are not very interested in this. Hence the theme with the international peacekeeping operation, which the Americans are actively promoting.

    - But if Washington does not allow Kiev to go on military provocations and, accordingly, to include an emergency regime, then Petro Poroshenko and his associates will have to go to the polls, with a high probability of losing them and withdrawing from the scene. The whole team - Yatsenyuk, Avakov, Turchinov, Parubiy, Lutsenko and others - is completely discredited, and the next government will definitely sue them.

    "We can expect a lot of things here, including major falsifications, intimidation, and eliminating competitors, including physical elimination, and links with the most radical nationalist forces. It is possible to declare martial law in certain regions, deprive electoral rights of residents of entire regions - on suspicion of pro-Russian sentiments. In any case, they will fight to the last, because otherwise they will have to flee the country - to the same America.

    ©️ Press Service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / Ruslan Linnik, Mykola Lazarenko

    - And if Kiev still does not listen to the Americans, how did the Georgian President Saakashvili not listen to and attack South Ossetia in 2008, fired Russian peacekeepers? But Ukraine is much more dangerous and stronger than Georgia.

    - They are already beginning to believe that they have a strong army. The fact that they are now actively armed, trained, receive all kinds of "Javelins", can turn a head and lead into temptation. In fact, of course, all this power is absolutely ridiculous. First, there is absolutely no aviation, there is still a lot of what is needed in modern warfare. All this power will end within two days, it will simply run up or be destroyed in boilers.

    "Is this an almost desirable option for us?"

    - No, our desirable option, Russian, strategic - full freezing of the conflict. All that is as it is now, let it remain. They are elected, re-elected, Poroshenko will remain or someone else will come to power, Trump will think of something - it does not matter. Let the whole situation last as long as it takes to digest this, go from the boiling point. It went away until Russia could otherwise look at this problem, and otherwise it would be solved - as a result of the growth of intra-Ukrainian, American, European problems, or something else. Life will prompt solutions.

    - So you think that time is working for us. And they think they are on them. Ukraine is rapidly militarizing, arming, new generations are being brought up in the spirit of anti-Russian jihad and revenge. In a few years, they and planes can appear, and everything else ...

    "They will not have airplanes." Yes, and "Javelins" - pure bluff. It is impossible to turn the Zaporozhye into a Mercedes. You can hang on it some spoilers, beautiful rainbow lanterns, something else, but it's impossible to do anything with this mythical Ukrainian army, which has lagged behind for two generations, and continues to lag behind.

    Poroshenko plays with fire, bluffs, but he does not need a real war. He understands no worse than Americans, and they explained to him that the war is fraught with the fact that he will lose everything. Imagine even the most beautiful dream of Ukrainian nationalists, that they took and captured Luhansk or Donetsk immediately. Does Poroshenko really fail to understand that in this situation he has put Moscow in a position of complete loss of face, while Russia has absolutely every means to return not only Lugansk and Donetsk, but Kiev as well. Well, Kiev is not needed, but it's easy to get to Odessa to connect with Transnistria, to make Novorossia.

    - Or maybe they believe that Putin will not do something that they can cause unacceptable damage to the Russian army during the operation?

    "The whole army will simply run away." We do not have the risk that there will be some military resistance - there is too much difference in the level of military technology. And the fact that we need to bear this territory for social and economic responsibility, to which we are not ready.

    ©️ RIA Novosti, Stringer | Go to the photobank

    "And at least for this reason, we must do everything possible to prevent a military scenario." And such things as diplomacy, information policy, impact on public opinion in Ukraine, all this "soft power" - are they already irrelevant?

    "For twenty years I have been saying that it is necessary to conduct active work with the people of Ukraine, to use" soft power ". I wrote several books on this topic.

    - Well, and how now can we influence public opinion in Ukraine - or is it impossible?

    "It's possible, but so far it's quite different." That is vice versa. This Ukraine is actively working for the Russian audience. Under the direction of the Ukrainian Ministry of Information Policy, more than 80,000 people work. On the Internet, they appear to be residents of Moscow, Crimea, Kaliningrad, other Russian cities and regions, tell how badly they live, criticize the Russian authorities, support and help spur all actions of our internal opposition. They are organized groups, they registered about 20 thousand accounts, and these are live accounts, not bots. This is mainly done by students and for very little money. Themes and tasks are obtained from a single content center. That is, they conduct a civilian information war in Russia, being economically much weaker.

    - And who hinders us?

    - Nobody interferes. We could act much more powerfully and effectively. Why is this not done? The answer is the same as ten and twenty years ago.

    Because Russia is engaged in itself, and proceeds from the fact that if we are rich, wonderful and successful, then Ukraine itself will reach out to us. And it is artificial to do something there - it's a waste of time. I do not agree with this position, because the losses of the same Gazprom as a result of all these gas wars are much greater than what we could spend on any PR actions. But even now the position is the same.

    However, if we talk about reducing the likelihood of a direct military conflict with Ukraine, we do not need to re-educate all the people, we need to give clear and unambiguous warning signals to the gang that now heads the country.

    Source: ukraina.ru
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    onwiththewar

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  onwiththewar on Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:43 pm

    Guys thanks for the replies re: peace keepers. A few updates:

    It's hilarious, Lukashenko has been bragging about sending "peace keepers" on a daily basis, Olena Zerkal said Ukraine won't allow them.


    MINSK, Feb 20 - Sputnik. Belarus can not participate in the UN peacekeeping mission in the Donbass, since it is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), said Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Olena Zerkal on the air of Channel 5 on Monday.

    https://sputnik.by/politics/20180220/1033760943/mid-ukrainy-zayavlenie-belarus-otpravka-mirotvorcev-donbass.html

    I posted earlier that Peskov said, Kiev and Novorossiya republics can discuss about "peace keepers" without Russia's involvement. I was worried that Ukraine might have the upper hand.

    However, Konstantin Eliseev (deputy head of the presidential administration) said: "We don't want to talk to them, we want to talk with Moscovites !!"


    "Of course, we are not going to conduct any dialogue and coordination with the militants, because everyone understands that behind the militants is Russia, and in this regard, the key challenge is to get consent to the deployment of such an operation from Moscow," said the official representative of the UG (Ukrainian State ).

    http://rusvesna.su/news/1519060650

    What he said was true though, just like you guys pointed out, that this whole UN mission is still ultimately up to Russia.

    Thank God, UN "peace keepers" project seems dead on its tracks now.





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    JohninMK

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK on Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:38 pm

    Much of the rest of the world showing in Munich that they really don't give a shit about Ukraine any more. No-one behind him and few in front this year.

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    TheArmenian

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  TheArmenian on Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:48 pm

    Much of the rest of the world showing in Munich that they really don't give a shit about Ukraine any more. No-one behind him and few in front this year. wrote:

    Indeed.

    And the few people attending his speech were mostly his team members from Ukraine including Klitchko etc.

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    miketheterrible

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  miketheterrible on Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:50 pm

    Apparently Ukraine signed into law the integration law, so it may very well lead to war very soon. Timing of it was obvious as well.

    But I think Poroshenko also realizes is that if it fails, his ass is grass.
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    The-thing-next-door

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  The-thing-next-door on Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:54 pm

    Will the NAF take Kharkov anytime soon? I would imagine that would be a strategic victroy for the NAF and put the ukrops at a serious dissadvantage.

    par far

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  par far on Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:34 pm

    With the World Cup and the Elections coming up, what are the chances that Moscow, does not back the NAF in a offensive operation? Moscow might want to wait until the World and the Elections are over, for any offensive from the NAF.
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    JohninMK

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:20 pm

    Eh? There isn't a bat in hells chance of any move out north/west/south by the forces of DNR/LPR. Russia wouldn't allow it as it would prove Russian aggression. The Ukrops have to strike first, then there will be a breakout.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:11 pm

    Exactly. Ball is in Ukraine's hand. If they attack first full on, it's on like Donkey Kong.
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    JohninMK

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:27 pm

    Interesting analysis from Kiev of DNR's military strength. LNR is additional.

    Kiev has been shocked with a new confession - despite the propaganda over the past four years about the war with "Russian aggression" - Ukraine is not at war with Russia.

    This was stated on air by the chief military prosecutor of Ukraine Anatoly Matios, who explained why the Ukrainian authorities are not able to give over 'captive Russians' who allegedly are fighting in the Donbass.

    "Five brigades, three separate regiments, eight separate battalions, two separate companies, five battalions of territorial defense. About 18,000 military men only in the Donetsk People's Republic; 320 tanks, 600 armored combat vehicles, 130 multiple launch rocket systems - this is the military establishment of the Donetsk region. This is just the Donetsk region - as there are others.

    We can see why there are so few Russians [from Russia itself]. We are not at war with Russia - we stand for the Minsk process, so that any encroachment on our sovereignty do not go further. Military potential, military power are extremely different between Russia and Ukraine," said Matios.


    https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/we-are-not-at-war-with-russia-in.html
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:59 pm

    Wasn't the forces of Donetsk about 30,000?
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    franco

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  franco on Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:29 am

    miketheterrible wrote:Wasn't the forces of Donetsk about 30,000?

    Combined Donetsk and Lugansk is around 35,000. The 1st Corps is the Donetsk forces and the 2nd Corps is the Lugansk force. Combined they are the Novorossiya Armed Forces.
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  miketheterrible on Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:41 am

    franco wrote:
    miketheterrible wrote:Wasn't the forces of Donetsk about 30,000?

    Combined Donetsk and Lugansk is around 35,000. The 1st Corps is the Donetsk forces and the 2nd Corps is the Lugansk force. Combined they are the Novorossiya Armed Forces.

    OK, that makes sense.

    Their reserves are also massive from my understanding. Didn't they have something like combined of reserves and volunteers of around 75K?
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    medo

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  medo on Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:32 am

    Combined active and reserve Novorussian army have around 100.000 soldiers.
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    Ispan

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Ispan on Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:16 pm

    Very interesting look on the orks, nothing that we didn't knew already, but useful to have

    http://antimaydan.info/2018/02/ukrainskaya_armiya_ot_kiborgov_k_avataram.html

    Not going to copypaste it entirely, just an excerpt

    But the opinion of Diana Makarova, a volunteer who helps Ukrainian troops in the Donbas - and who personally knows the situation at the front:
    - There is no contract army in Ukraine.
    All the contract units included in the ATU zone are understaffed. On paper people can and is missing, but really - no. If now, by rotation, battalions are coming out of the mobilized and contract soldiers in which there were 280 people each, then battalions of 120 people come to replace them. And they must keep the piece of the front in the same way as before holding a full-fledged battalion.
    At some zero positions instead of platoons, and this is 30 people, there are four or five fighters. That is, they were put up as cannon fodder. To say that the front is a holey one is to say nothing.
    Besides, who went to the contract? There are motivated fighters who linked their lives with the army. There are still many patriots who will stand up to the end. But, unfortunately, not all contractors are so motivated. Came "zarobitchane" - these are people who know that they will not find work at home, so they made an army with their work.
    Also came a lot of "avatars", which does not care where to drink - at home or on the front line.
    But the worst thing is that the contract took a lot of mobilized boys for 19-20 years. When they come to serve in the army, they are told that they will receive huge sums of money. Here they sign the contract. Then they are not trained, and sometimes not trained at all, to the front line. It is on these children that the front is now held. "
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    auslander

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  auslander on Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:03 am

    I'll just park this here for the time being. Enjoy!

    https://twitter.com/mali_inc/status/967083083106344960
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    flamming_python

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  flamming_python on Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:22 pm

    What exactly is wrong with peacekeepers from some neutral nation?

    If they actually separate the 2 sides and allow the Donbass republics to develop in relative peace; then I'm all for it.

    And if they don't succeed in that then the situation won't be any worse than it is now anyway.

    Vann7

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  Vann7 on Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:03 pm

    When Pictures speak better than words..
    Take a look of 2 very powerful reasons for Russia to not invade Ukraine ..


    Reason #1





    Reason #2



    The Pentagon have been raising bio-weapons of mass destruction Laboratories/that they could use as a mine field.. against Russia army.. Any place such laboratories exploded ,will be places Russia will be forced to clean,
    because Ukraine is broken and the west will not do it.


    and then there is more.. Not just that.. Russia enemies could start doing false flags in Ukraine
    using uniforms of Russian soldiers and start major genocide of Ukrainians and then CIA to blow up
    Ukraine nuclear reactors or biological ones and later with US media help ,claim Russia did it..
    that is using chemical weapons on Ukraine. It will be interesting to know in which directions
    winds blow in Ukraine.. because if they go towards Russia ,in any part of the year.. then basically
    Americans can attack Russia by proxy with radiation and biological weapons by just blowing up
    the storage places in Ukraine of those and later blaming it ,on Russian pro rebels artillery.
    So Russia  needs EU to help to solve the Ukraine conflict.. if Europe pressure Ukraine and (Americans too)
    to put an end to their hostilities against Russia and its backed fighters , then it can avoid a major catastrophe
    in Ukraine.. of major proportions..  Because the evil people who lead US policies ,will be capable of killing
    millions in Ukraine if they allowed it to do it ,by Europe..if they feel they are going to lose control of Ukraine..
    like ..if it will not be ours.. then it will be of no one.. and a terrorism of such level ,ie.. blowing up Ukraine reactors and biological labs ,the reasoning of that will be ,so that Russia is forced to take millions more and pay the cost of hospital for the wounded by radiation and biological attacks by the wester games.

    THen if Russia invade..it could provoke a major ethnic cleansing of ethnic Russians by Ukrainians.
    To provoke Russia to deploy a very large army in order to protect civilians in the entire country.

    So Ukraine is literary an entire nation ,hostage of US Unlawful actions , that only there to undermine Russia
    economy and cause damages to Russia military.

    For sure biological weapons will not win a war.. but they can be used for major scale economical damages to any
    nation tourism and olympics and it can wipe a big army if they are lured into a biological death trap. as i think
    Ukraine also is..  Europe have to be also worried ,because any war in Ukraine will mean millions of refugees into
    Europe and with radiation and biological weapons and major illness spreading through all Europe..

    If i was Putin ,i will warn Europeans of Americans path of destruction in Europe. and will encourage all European
    Major business and rich people, to have a back up place ,in Russia ,to move a major part of their business to Russia,so that if Europe is destroyed by muslims or biological weapons ,then they will have a place to move and continue
    their business in Russia. SOmething that will allow Russia to develop a major industrial revolution. something similar
    to what happened to China..thanks to western business deployed there.
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    JohninMK

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:28 pm

    flamming_python wrote:What exactly is wrong with peacekeepers from some neutral nation?

    If they actually separate the 2 sides and allow the Donbass republics to develop in relative peace; then I'm all for it.

    And if they don't succeed in that then the situation won't be any worse than it is now anyway.
    Hi FP, I don't think there is a problem with having peacekeepers, its who they are and especially where they are that is the big problem. Ukraine and the US want them all over Donbass including the Russian border, whilst Russia wants them limited to the ceasefire line and demilitarised area.

    Impasse.
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    littlerabbit

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  littlerabbit on Wed Feb 28, 2018 4:47 pm

    JohninMK wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:What exactly is wrong with peacekeepers from some neutral nation?

    If they actually separate the 2 sides and allow the Donbass republics to develop in relative peace; then I'm all for it.

    And if they don't succeed in that then the situation won't be any worse than it is now anyway.
    Hi FP, I don't think there is a problem with having peacekeepers, its who they are and especially where they are that is the big problem. Ukraine and the US want them all over Donbass including the Russian border, whilst Russia wants them limited to the ceasefire line and demilitarised area.

    Impasse.

    Imagine this scenario: 20.000 soldiers under the UN resolution come into Donbass and put it under 100% control...and let the weapons and ammo rot through few years. Meanwhile, Ukraine suddenly become stable country and in a very short procedure join NATO. Then NATO, with Kiev decides to UNILATERALLY remove forces under the UN resolution and move their troops in Donbass...what will Donbass and Russia do, fight NATO and UN troops?! Remember what happened to us in RS Krajina, Republika Srpska, Kosovo and Metohija...It's a win/win combination for Washington and NATO, full occupation, no peace and no prosperity in Donbass, game over. Exclamation Mad
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    miketheterrible

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  miketheterrible on Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:18 pm

    Exactly. And Russian authorities know this and not stupid to fall into this trap.
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    PapaDragon

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  PapaDragon on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:05 pm

    flamming_python wrote:What exactly is wrong with peacekeepers from some neutral nation?

    If they actually separate the 2 sides and allow the Donbass republics to develop in relative peace; then I'm all for it.

    And if they don't succeed in that then the situation won't be any worse than it is now anyway.


    I seen first hand how that ''neutral peacekeeper'' swindle works.

    If someone wants to get screwed over, then by all means, they should go for it. Razz
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    JohninMK

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #27

    Post  JohninMK on Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:17 pm

    Interesting analysis of the subject of peacekeepers.

    https://www.fort-russ.com/2018/02/un-peacekeepers-in-donbass-another-step.html

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