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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

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    Vann7
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    The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  Vann7 on Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:10 pm

    So where are now all the Russian political "experts" predicting an Euromaidan in RUssia? lol1

    The elections are over.. United Russia party wiped the floor with everyone and no single protest yet in ST petersburg
    for the "rigged elections" to overthrow Putin and provoke a civil war in RUssia.  Rolling Eyes  

    IS there is something good about all this is that we can finally put to an end the Doomsayers predictions who were saying Russia is doomed and will crease to exist as consequence of having PussyRIot and Euromaidan with American Ambassador who created the color revolution in Ukraine now in Russia.  As i told before the Russian society is very different to the Ukrainian one.. there is no brainwashing campaign from early school in Russia against Russia and overwhelming majority of people understand their nation is under attack by the west ,and that is based on envy and fear of Russia becoming a world leader ,replacing US in terms of leading the order and enforcing international laws.

    In RUssia is quite interesting that is the opposite of ukraine.. in Russia that most active "Activist" who organize dissent are old people , like "mothers of soldiers" and mothers of veterans.. while in Ukraine the white house target the young people.. clearly means Russia have done a very good job educating its society. There are a few exceptions however like PRiot , but they are a popular group only outside of Russia and the last protest they organized was no more than a dozen of people. lol1

    This is the reason why the endless Sanctions of the west..in hopes to break Russia economy. because they understand they cannot break Russia in parts as long the nation is having an Economy that works ,with Successful Sport events , a massive modernization of their nation cities and its army. And Medvedev supporting Putin Policy with Crimea and Ukraine and Russia refusing to go to war with Ukraine, even when provoked is like the last nail in the coffin to US hopes to divide Russian Society.  Soon there will be an Organized Protest in Moscow.. a "Protest for Peace" that could not come at a worse time ever.. Because looks like very *out of time* since there is peace in Russia and more peaceful foreign policy that the one Putin have is simply impossible. Is just a desperate western paid protest that had nothing of where to hold ,since Putin peaceful policy is at the moment holding. My guess is that any protest done in RUssia will be only an exercise to "Test" ,how is the Russian society mood with its government.

    kvs
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  kvs on Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:32 pm

    Over at the NATO butthurt forum (we all know the one) they are still fixated on the T-72B3 and supposed proof of direct Russian intervention.



    The above is supposed to be glorious Kiev regime success. But it is actually a T-72B from the USSR period as is evident from the photo of a real
    T-72B3:



    The Sosna-U sight does not have any bolts on top and is bigger than the structure on the turret of the destroyed tank.

    If NATO can act as the air force of the KLA in Kosovo and the jihadis in Libya, then Russia can help the people of the Donbas to express their
    right to self-determination. This right overrides national borders as determined by the International Court of Justice at the Hague:

    http://www.haguejusticeportal.net/index.php?id=9861

    In spite of all the hysterics, we have not seen a single photo or video of a Russian army column in Ukraine. According to the Kiev regime there were
    dozens of such invasions over the last few months. Yet not a single record of one, not even by US spy satellites! Yes, we have had grainy images
    purporting to prove Russian artillery pieces on Russian soil firing into Ukraine, and supposedly a case of such pieces being situated in Ukraine (how do
    they know these are not rebel artillery?) but not a single image of Russian armored columns. This is actually evidence there never were any.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:42 pm

    Excellent and humurous analysis of the whole situation. Basically matches my own thoughts exactly:

    http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/ukraine-sitrep-september-20-2334.html

    Ukraine SITREP September 20, 23:34 UTC/Zulu: War or Peace?

    [Quick note: I want to begin this SITREP with a correction to something which I mentioned in the last SITREP abouy General Bezler: even though his signature did appear to figure on the infamous statement of the four commanders declaring their loyalty to "General" Korsun, the information that he had been arrested is, according so sources qualified as "solid" by Colonel Cassad, not true. Since I have no reason to doubt Cassad's sources, I assume that this is true. I have no idea why/how Bezler's signature was found on this document, maybe it was a fake? Either way, Bezler even made a short video today making fun of Ukie not-so-special forces. In contrast, Korsun's arrest is apparently confirmed. Now let's turn to the SITREP proper - The Saker]

    War?

    The big event of the week was, I think, Poroshenko's speech to what I call the Imperial Senate (aka Joint Session of Congress). I have made the full transcript available here and here. I don't think that it is worth carefully parsing this text, so I will just mention the few elements which are absolutely obvious to me:

    1) This text was written by a US Neocon. It even included such typical US-propaganda gimmicks as the "personal story" to give a human touch and moment carefully crafted to generate applause. So no only what the author of this rant American, but he/she was for sure a diehard Neocon.

    2) This text was a lame attempt at copying Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech, except that Poroshenko is no Churchill, Putin no Stalin and Novorussia no Soviet Union. Nonetheless, the message was clear: Russia represents a planetary threat to freedom, democracy, liberty, human right, free speech, etc. In fact, according to Poroshenko the choice is not between two civilizations but between civilization and barbaric darkness.

    3) The US deep state is by now clearly aware of the immense challenge presented to it by Putin's "Eurasian Sovereignist" Russia and the movement it leads (BRICS+SCO+etc.). The fact that it has to use such absolutely over the top rhetoric is a clear sign of fear and the Neocons are now freaking out. The danger for them is becoming very real (more about that below).

    4) More than anything else, this speech proved to me that the only viable goal for Russia is regime change in Kiev. This is a message I will hammer in over and over again - regime change in Kiev is a vital, arguable existential, priority for Russia.

    5) Far from being any kind of patriots or nationalists, the Ukie "nationalists" are subservient puppets of the West, willing to service AngloZionist interests with less shame then a old prostitute services her clients. For all the "Glory to the Ukraine, to the Heroes Glory!" slogans, the Ukies are the cheapest prostitutes on the planet with no self-respect whatsoever.

    The entire speech had a Disney-like feel to it: on one side, the forces of Light, lead by the USA in white shining armor and on the other, the forces of Darkness, lead by Russia crawling out of the Asian steppes like Lovecraft's Chtuhlu. Infantile to the extreme, the purpose of the speech was to induce a planetary war against Russia and her allies or, at the very least, to contain that 21st century Mordor. Poroshenko went as far as referring to now completely disproved lies (such as Russia invading Georgia in 2008) and hinting that Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria. could/would be next. Clearly the main can lie with an ease which any used car salesman would envy.

    Then there is the issue of the standing ovations. Less than Obama and less than Netanyahu, but still a lot (12 I think). The Imperial Senators appeared to stand longer and clap harder each time Poroshenko drifted off into some kind of crazy nonsense. A scary sight, really.

    Now we all know who runs the US Congress (AIPAC) so what this is, really, is a declaration of war by AIPAC and the Zionist faction of the AngloZionist Empire. The Anglos are far less enthusiastic as shown by Obama's refusal to send weapons to the Ukies. Just like in 2008 and that other lunatic - Saakashvili - I get the feeling that there might be a lot of behind the scenes Neocon "parallel diplomacy" going on. If not, why would Obama's bosses tell Poroshenko to ask for weapons they don't want to give him in the first place? My guess is that there is a lot of reluctance in the Pentagon and possibly in the intelligence community to get the USA fully committed behind a regime which might not be around in a few months.

    Whatever may be the case, Poroshenko's speech felt like an infantile but nasty declaration of war. Clearly, there are those who are very concerned that peace might break out

    Peace?

    Version 1:

    On the "peace front" a number of interesting things happened. First, on September 14th sixteen business representatives from the USA, Russia, Germany and the Ukraine met for a private meeting with the Chairmen of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab. In attendance were some very big player including the hyper-notorious Anatolii Chubais (for a complete list or participants, see here). They adopted the following document:



    (You can also download the document from here.) The publication of this document resulted in something as predictable as it was amazing. The "Putin is selling out Novorussia" choir immediately denounced this document as a total betrayal of Novorussia and a victory for the oligarchs. I said that this was a predictable reaction because by now it is pretty clear that these folks will denounce any and all negotiated documents (Agreement, Memoranda, Treaty or any other type) as a "sellout of Novorussia", "victory for the oligarchs" and "capitulation by Putin". Still, what was absolutely amazing to me that apparently they seem to notice #6:

    Guarantee the security and sovereignty of Ukraine by the international community. Recognize the supremacy of international law above national interests. Recognize the right of self-determination but encourage to consider a policy of military non-alignment for Ukraine, comparable to the status of other European countries (i.e. Finland, Sweden, Switzerland). Amazingly, but the nay-sayers managed to completely miss the fact that 1) Ukie laws which contravene the EU Convention on Human Rights (including Protocol 12 on minority rights) and the UN Charter (whose Article 1 and others specifically uphold the right of self-determination) could be overruled 2) that the Ukies were told to recognize the right of self-determination (not just federation, but open-ended self determination) and 3) that the Ukies were told that they will have to remain neutral and non-aligned.
    And that, coming form Chubais & Co!


    Now, I understand that the Ukies broke every single document they signed so far, and this one will be no exception. But what is crucial here is that the message from "top finance" is not Poroshenko's hysterical call to arms before the Imperial Senate, but "no crazy laws, self-determination, no NATO". This is a HUGE victory for Russia who sees a Ukrainian membership in NATO as a major threat. Conversely, this WEF Initiative is a nightmare come true for the Neocons as it finalizes, if it is applied of course, the non-NATO status for the Ukraine.

    True, this document speaks of a unitary Ukrainian state (apparently unless and until the right of self-determination trumps that) and it is full with well-meaning generalities. But point #6 is absolutely amazing coming, as it does, from the trans-national plutocrats which signed it. And yes, will Chubais' friend recommend an non-block status for the Ukraine, the Ukie Rada is abrogating its nonaligned while Timoshenko demands and entry into NATO.

    Finally, keep in mind that this is an "initiative" which does not commit the Ukraine or Russia to anything. At most, this is a declaration of desirable principles, a basis for negotiation if you want.

    Version 2:

    The other big event of the week is signing of the Minsk Memorandum. Here is the full text:



    Unlike the vague and, frankly, un-implementable Minsk cease-fire agreement, this Memorandum provides some perfect reasonable standards by which to measure compliance by both parties. Some points are politically correct nonsense (#9) but most of this text can be summarized as following: a "freezing" of the conflict along the line of contact. Is that good or bad?

    Depends whom you ask.

    Strelkov immediately denounced that Memorandum in the strongest possible terms. According to Strelkov, this is a victory for the "betrayal" camp lead by Surkov who has deceived Putin and is now pushing him into a Milosevic-type of scenario. In contrast, Zakharchenko, obviously, full backs the plan. So let's look a bit closer to this Memorandum.

    For one thing, and that is important, it contains exactly zero political provisions. None. So the first rather obvious point that I would like to make is that this plan is very limited in scope: all it does is provide the basis for a mechanism to achieve a more or less verifiable ceasefire. Period. So if the Minks Ceasefire Agreement was list of vague and unenforceable (I would even argue undefined) general political statements, this document is the extreme opposite: a purely technical tool which really codifies the current situation on the ground.

    So what is the political context in which this ceasefire will have to be observed? What is the point of the ceasefire?

    Well, again, that depends whom you ask.

    According to Poroshenko and other Ukrainian officials it is to give time to the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) to regroup, reorganize and prepare for a counter-attack. Strelkov would agree. Zakharchenko and Lavrov disagree. While they observe and denounce the Ukie preparations for a possible (likely? inevitable?) counter-attack, their official position is that the Agreement and the Memorandum are now binding documents useful in preparation for a final status negotiations. At this point Zakharchanko speaks of a completely independent Ukraine and Lavrov of a neutral Ukraine respectful of all its citizens.

    I suggest we take it step by step.

    First, long before we got to this point, we used to have heated debates on this blog about whether time was on the Russia, Novorussian or Ukie side. At the time, most commentators, including myself, were of the opinion that time was most definitely on Russia's side, but the question was if Novorussia could survive long enough. Basically, we wondered if Novorussia could stay alive long enough for Banderastan to collapse, or whether the only way to save Novorussia from a Nazi takeover was an overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass. Some of us even spoke of weeks.

    Now, several months later, we see that not only did Novorussia not collapse under a Nazi takeover, but that the Novorussian Armed Forces gave a magnificent thrashing to the JRF and instead of getting encircled in Donetsk and Lugkans, the NAF pushed the JRF all the way out to Mariupol. At the very least, this proves that

    1) Those who said that a Russian military intervention was the only way to save Novorussia were wrong: Novorussia survived.
    2) Those who said that there was no Russian covert aid or that this aid was insufficient were wrong again: Voentorg is thriving (named after a military store, "voentorg", which literally means "military trade", here refers to the Russian covert aid to Novorussia)

    Furthermore, at the time everybody agreed that things could only get worse for Banderastan, especially when the Fall and Winter would begin. As far as I know, there is still nobody predicting a miraculous turn-around in the Ukie economy so we can assume that all that Banderastan did was get so much closer to the inevitable economic and social cliff. And, indeed, the cracks are visible all over, AngloZionist aid or not.

    I think that basic logic tells us that time is still on Russia's side and that the Ceasefire Agreement, this time supported by a Memorandum, solves the time problem for Novorussia: with aid from Russia freely flowing in (both over humanitarian aid and covert, "voentorg", aid) Novorussia can now sit tight and wait. The cold season will not only exacerbate the economic-social tensions in Banderastan, it will also make offensive operations much harder.

    What about the opportunity costs?

    In economics there the notion of "opportunity costs". These are the costs you do not incur directly (you don't have to pay anything), but these are the "costs" resulting from missed opportunities. Income you could have made, but did not.

    Is Novorussia incurring such opportunity costs as the result of this peace?

    That depends on your hypothesis.

    There are those who believe that the NAF could if not make it to Kiev, then at least liberate Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and other cities. I agree that Mariupol was about to fall, but only at great risk of envelopment from the north. As for other cities, I personally don't believe that is true. Even Slaviansk is quite out of reach, at least for the time being. Some say that a collapse of the JRF would have left the road open to Kiev. While true in one sense (some units might have used to panic to make it that far), this is a typically civilian idea of warfare. "Getting there" can be easy, of course, but it's *staying* there typically turns into a nightmare. I do not believe that by early September the NAF had the capabilities to breakout much beyond their current areas of deployment and to successfully liberate much more territory.

    Furthermore, I do not believe that a purely military solution is achievable, especially not one which has Novorussians "liberating" central or, even less so, western Ukraine. I know that my hatemail will go through the roof, but I will say that I think that freezing the frontline on September 19th is a pretty good deal, especially since that removes the single biggest "distraction" in internal Ukie politics: the so-called "Russian invasion".

    There are also those who say that the Russian military could liberate most, or even, all of the Ukraine. I agree. Militarily, this is a no-brainer. But by doing so Russia would provide the Neocons with their ultimate dream: a Cold War v2 for many decades to come. Pragmatically, this would be a disastrous decision. But the moral aspect is even more important here. As far as I am concerned, and setting aside all my sympathy for the people of Novorussia who have fought for their freedom and, I am now convinced of it, will get it, Russia owes the Ukraine absolutely nothing. Not gas, not loans and most definitely not the lives of Russian soldiers. There is no reason I can think of why a young man from Moscow, Tobolsk or Makhachkala has to sacrifice is life liberating Banderastan from the local Nazis. No, sorry, the Ukrainians have to free themselves. It is the hight of hypocrisy to spend decades whining about the Moskals and then expect them to come a liberate you from your own Nazi freaks.

    The people of Donetsk and Lugansk have shown that they, like the folks of Crimea or South Ossetia, are truly deserving of Russian help, even if that means that Russian young men should die, as happened in South Ossetia. And I would note here that South Ossetian man are now fighting as volunteers for Novorussia, so the Ossetians have proven beyond any doubt that they were fighting for.

    But the folks in the rest of (historical) Novorussia?

    Did you hear about the uprising in Mariupol? Right. Neither did I. What about the partisans around Zaporozhie or Chernigov? Same thing. Well, in reality, this is not quite true and not really fair. First, the Nazis are using terror to subdue the locals in these cities and, second, there have been a few actions here and there. But if Strelkov was speaking the truth when he said that most young men in Donetsk and Luganks were quite happy to sip beer and watch the events on their idiot-boxes, this is even much more true of the rest of the Ukraine. Even senior NAF commander admitted that their strength was in the fact that the NAF were liberators, but that the further they would go west, the more they would be seen not as liberators but as occupiers (and, believe me, the propaganda on Ukie TV is nothing short of unimaginable: according the Ukie officials who speak on Ukie TV on a daily basis, Russia is already occupying the Ukraine with, last time I heard, 19 battalion tactical groups!)

    Every one is free to have his/her opinion and I cannot prove that I am right simply because hypotheticals are, by definition, unprovable. But my personal belief is that freezing the line of contact on the 19th is reasonable and that the ceasefire benefits everybody more than the regime in Kiev (which is why I expect it to be broken even more than it already is). Furthermore, I submit that these are the fundamental objectives of the key parties to this civil war:

    1) Russia: regime change in Kiev (long term goal: years)
    2) Novorussia: de-facto full independence from Kiev (short term goal: months)
    3) rest of the Ukraine: liberation and full de-Nazificaton (long term goal: years)

    The current situation is favorable for #1 and #2.

    What about the warning from Strelkov: that this ceasefire agreement is like the one reached in Croatia which gave the Croats time to prepare a counter-attack with their NATO masters and (illegally) occupy the Serbian Krajinas?

    For all my sympathy and admiration for Strelkov, I think that he is plain wrong.

    For one thing, the Serbs in the Krajinas had their heavy weapons under UN guard and when the Croats and their NATO masters attacked, UNPROFOR was ordered by the US to get the hell out of the way and UPROFOR meekly complied (trust me, I followed that situation minute-by-minute, literally). Furthermore, Milosevic also betrayed the Croatian Serbs and he did not provide support from Bosnia were the Federal Army had several brigades (who later also dumped the Bosnian Serbs). Crimea is protected by the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet and by the most powerful single landforce in Eurasia. Unlike the Serbian Krajinas, Crimea is ideal to defend (as history shows). The notion of the Ukies coming from the land, sea or air to occupy Crimea is ludicrous to the extreme. A JRF which got comprehensively defeated by the NAF cannot take on the Russian military. As for the USN, it can show the flag all over the Black Sea, but every USN officer knows that the Black Sea is one big trap from which you don't want to fight Russia.

    What about Novorussia then? Could the JRF in theory rearm and successfully attack Donetsk and Lugansk? In theory yes, but in practice as long as Putin is in the Kremlin, Russia will never allow the Ukie to take over these two republics. If they tried, the "voentorg" (which, by the way, has not been stopped by the Agreement or Memorandum) will go through the roof and "volunteers" from Russia would come streaming in. And yes, if left no other choice, and facing a "do it or lose it" situation, the Kremlin will order the Russian military to initiate what will, no doubt, be presented as a "temporary and limited peace-enforcement operation to restore the mutually agree upon line of demarcation of September 19th, 2014" or some equally inane formula which, in practical terms, will simply mean "you got 48 hours to smash the Ukie forces". It will probably take less than 24. Then the Russians will go right back across the border and ask that the OSCE attest to that withdrawal. The West will choke with rage, but it shall be too late. Just like Russia basically disarmed Saakashvili in 3 days of combat, Russia can, and will, disarm Poroshenko, Iarosh, Timoshenko or any other Ukie freak who will try to capture Donetsk or Lugansk.

    So is there a conspiracy? A behind-the-scenes secret deal?

    Probably not. But I bet you that there is a mutual understanding. The US tells Russia "don't you dare take Kiev" and Russia replies "don't you dare take the Donetsk and Luganks Republics". Neither side commits to anything, but it "just so happens" that neither dare is called. Having said that, both sides also see that short of these red lines the rest is fair game. Hence, the US props up Kiev and Russia props up Novorussia. Sure, the Neocons in the USA are absolutely incensed, and the "hurray-patriots" (there is such a Russian term) in Russia are also furious. The armchair generals on both sides (Liashko, Dugin) offer many "simple" plans on how they would win it all if they were in the White House or the Kremlin. In the meantime, the military commanders in the Pentagon and in the Russian General Staff quietly try to make sure that this war stays local and does not force the "Big Guys" into a real world war.

    The main risk is that there is a faction inside the US deep state which correctly identifies the political threat posed by Russia's overt and unapologetic defiance of US policies as an existential threat for the AngloZionist Empire. These guys, Neocons or old Anglo Imperialists, want to play a game of chicken with Russia and they are convincing themselves that Russia must, and will, blink at the last second and back down. The Russian response is very complex one: to give the appearance of backing down without really giving up anything. Like when the Russians had to "cave in" to US threats and disarm Syria form its chemical arsenals. At the time, the Putin is selling out Syria" choir immediately denounced this document as a a betrayal and as a proof that Putin and Obama are, in reality, working hand in hand. Some even continue to clamor today that "if Assad had chemical weapons" the US would never dare to attack him (forgetting that Saddam also had chemical weapons and that this did not help him at all). Now, in hindsight, we know that these nay-sayers (I am being nice and polite here) were wrong, 100% wrong, but at the time their laments and outraged denunciations sounded credible.

    To be truly honest, I can understand their feelings. I even wrote on this blog that my biggest fear is that Putin would turn out to be yet another Milosevic. In fact, I had predicted that the Russians would intervene and I was quite surprised and, frankly, appalled when they did not. That was when Donetsk and Lugansk were almost surrounded and their fall looked likely. My brain told met that this would not happen, but I had a knot in my stomach and I could barely think of anything at all besides the tragic events in Novorussia. Yet, this time again, just as with Syria, Putin did "deliver": Russia's covert aid turned the tide and what looked like an imminent collapse of all of Novorussia (especially after the retreat of Strelkov from Slaviansk!) turned into a unbelievable defeat for the Ukie forces. Again, those who seriously believe that this amazing turn of events happened by itself rather then as the direct result of a strategic decision taken in Moscow just don't understand warfare, sorry. Russia's covert aid (weapons, men, intelligence, advisors) made this NAF counter-offensive possible and if Putin wanted to "sell out" Novorussia all he had to do is nothing at all. That would have done the trick just fine. Instead Russia embarked on a remarkable and highly effective to achieve two apparently mutually exclusive results: to deny the AngloZionists the war they so badly wanted and to deny the Ukies the victory they so badly wanted.

    No wonder they so passionately hate Putin and Russia :-)

    So where do we go from here?

    As usual, I will simply admit that I don't know (which is not bad, considering that many folks seem not to even know where we currently are). There are too many variables. Those who tried the MH17 false flag might come up with something just as disgusting and as crazy. So far, on the US side, it look like the Pentagon is successful in preventing the Neocons from seriously committing the US behind Poroshenko. Speaking of Poroshenko, he is much safer in the US than at home. For him, things are about to get much tougher and much uglier. Right now, literally anything can happen in Banderastan, I cannot call that one at all.

    Assuming the Ukies don't launch a Fall or Winter offensive (how crazy would that be?! but then they are pretty crazy...), Novorussia will be fine, courtesy of a strong NAF and plenty of Russian aid. Hopefully, the crazy infighting amongst the Novorussian elites will eventually stop. In Russia proper, Strelkov can be the perfect spokesman to 1) hold Putin's feet to the fire and 2) help Putin further gradually suppress the Atlantic Sovereignists. Crimea's future looks as bright as can be.

    Which leaves Russia under sanctions. Short term - the sanctions are definitely going to hurt Russia. Mid-term, Russia will do just fine as long as these sanctions are used as an opportunity to finally embark on some much needed reforms. There is no risk of a "nationalist Maidan against Putin" (there never was), but the fight against the oligarchs will continue (not only were there rumors, later denied, that Evtushekov had been free, but so far the investigation of the corruption scandal under Serdiukov and his mistress Evgenia Vassilievna has gone nowhere). There are still plenty of pro-Western Atlantic Sovereignists in Moscow and even inside the Kremlin and it will take a lot of time and effort to suppress their constantly subversive and, frankly, sabotaging efforts.

    That's it for today folks, I hope that this was useful. Sorry for the long post. All I can say in my defense is that I barely scratched the surface of it all (I good, solid Ukrainian SITREP could easily be 30-50 pages long, though in real life politicians want their reduced to 3-4 paragraphs on one sheet of paper; no wonder they then take stupid decisions!).

    Kind regards to all and have a wonderful week-end!

    The Saker

    PS: a friend just emailed me to let me know that Russia, China plan sign new 30 year gas deal via 2nd route! So much for the "isolation" of Russia :-)

    kvs
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  kvs on Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:46 pm

    @Vann7

    There is no ground for a Maidan in Russia. Russia is not a divided society like Ukraine. In Ukraine, the orange forces did not accept the fact
    that they lost the 2010 election. To them, the 50% of Ukraine that does not want to join NATO (see the Pew and Gallup polling results over the
    last three years) and supported Yanukovich is an object of hate. Nothing like this exists in Russia. The so-called liberals (aka neoliberal bootlicks
    of foreign powers) are at best 5% of the population. And most of these are just people who have formed the idiotic opinion that Russians
    are genetically deficient when it comes to democracy. These clowns should go and live in the west for a few decades and perhaps they will
    wise up. Anyway, they are a historical sideshow.

    There is also no split in Russia as to the legitimacy of the current political system. Putin is genuinely popular and has no serious competitors. So people
    will not go out onto the streets to bring the system down. The western media is hoping its 24/7 hate propaganda campaign will somehow infiltrate
    Russia like during the USSR era. But they are deluded. The west had serious points to make against the Soviet system. Today it is flailing about
    with tin foil hat conspiracy theories and trying to argue against common sense and against the actual experience of people living in Russia. In other
    words, the western media message to Russia today is like the inanity spewed by North Korea.

    All these dissident marches serve to undermine their own cause. They are clearly aligned to the NATO agenda. So when these dissidents march
    in support of the Kiev regime, most people in Russia are correct to perceive them as a 5th column. Peace marches are about peace and not about
    pushing some propaganda narratives. If they were so worried about the war they would have come out months ago and denounced the slaughter
    of civilians by indiscriminate artillery and MLRS bombardment by Kiev regime forces. Now that the situation has frozen in the Donbas these clowns
    crawl out of the woodwork. They are clearly a rent-a-crowd.

    sepheronx
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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:47 pm

    Vann7 wrote:So where are now all the Russian political "experts" predicting an Euromaidan in RUssia? lol1

    The elections are over.. United Russia party wiped the floor with everyone and no single protest yet in ST petersburg
    for the "rigged elections" to overthrow Putin and provoke a civil war in RUssia.  Rolling Eyes  

    IS there is something good about all this is that we can finally put to an end the Doomsayers predictions who were saying Russia is doomed and will crease to exist as consequence of having PussyRIot and Euromaidan with American Ambassador who created the color revolution in Ukraine now in Russia.  As i told before the Russian society is very different to the Ukrainian one.. there is no brainwashing campaign from early school in Russia against Russia and overwhelming majority of people understand their nation is under attack by the west ,and that is based on envy and fear of Russia becoming a world leader ,replacing US in terms of leading the order and enforcing international laws.

    In RUssia is quite interesting that is the opposite of ukraine.. in Russia that most active "Activist" who organize dissent are old people , like "mothers of soldiers" and mothers of veterans.. while in Ukraine the white house target the young people.. clearly means Russia have done a very good job educating its society. There are a few exceptions however like PRiot , but they are a popular group only outside of Russia and the last protest they organized was no more than a dozen of people. lol1

    This is the reason why the endless Sanctions of the west..in hopes to break Russia economy. because they understand they cannot break Russia in parts as long the nation is having an Economy that works ,with Successful Sport events , a massive modernization of their nation cities and its army. And Medvedev supporting Putin Policy with Crimea and Ukraine and Russia refusing to go to war with Ukraine, even when provoked is like the last nail in the coffin to US hopes to divide Russian Society.  Soon there will be an Organized Protest in Moscow.. a "Protest for Peace" that could not come at a worse time ever.. Because looks like very *out of time* since there is peace in Russia and more peaceful foreign policy that the one Putin have is simply impossible. Is just a desperate western paid protest that had nothing of where to hold ,since Putin peaceful policy is at the moment holding. My guess is that any protest done in RUssia will be only an exercise to "Test" ,how is the Russian society mood with its government.

    There is going to be a organized protest in Moscow?

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  Vann7 on Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:50 pm

    @KVS

    Go post there this video..



    Shows some of the casualties of Abrahms M1A2 in IRAQ, they lost tanks in the hundreds. They didn't suffered more casualties because IRAQ was just a third world nation with outdated weapons mostly ,only with very few RPG-29s here and there if any. Ukraine have infinite better weapons than IRAQ ever had and they have kornets and also NATO supplied anti tank weapons that can pose a challenge not only to Russian tanks but also to their own ones.
    The question you need to ask them. is .. IF NATO is so strong why they do not fight in eastern ukraine? and if their tanks are so amazing.. why none of US or European tanks have ever have faced modern conflict against modern weapons? Why NATO do not equip their Ukraine ally with Leopard A2 tanks? or M1a3's? and only give them soviet tanks? What are they afraid to give Ukraine the same assistance they give to IRAQ vs ISIS war? that NATO conduct air strikes directly.. but in eastern ukraine nothing.. ? Simply NATO do not send their best hardware ie Tanks or COmbat jets to Ukraine because they know it will be destroyed and it will look very bad for their image and their business if hundreds of latest Leopards and Abrahms tanks are totally destroyed in Ukraine by the rebels.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  kvs on Sun Sep 21, 2014 4:52 pm

    http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2014/09/21_a_6229661.shtml

    The "march of peace" organized by Nmetsov and the rest of the usual suspects.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  Vann7 on Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:01 pm

    sepheronx wrote:

    There is going to be a organized protest in Moscow?

    http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/750565

    Yes.. a protest for "peace"...
    As if Russia was seeking to start a major war with anyone. Rolling Eyes
    Protest are easy to organize in any nation ,it can be made of actors , no one will reject easy money.. but they will show up ,get the money and then leave ..but real Unrest and anti government protest is a different thing.

    IN syria for example most of the anti-government peaceful protest were only for TV cameras.. they show up for 30 minutes and when cameras turned off, they leave. lol1 And not even they deny they were paid . about $20 dollars each one to show up... there are videos on youtube of the Former US ambassador to Syria.. directly urging people to protest their government.. when the conflict was starting. A real protest for peace will only be done in Ukraine or in RUssia borders with Ukraine.. so the ukrainians are the ones that needs to be convinced of peace.. not Russia.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  flamming_python on Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:07 pm

    Anti-war marches are a good thing, on all sides. Doesn't matter who it's organized by or what the aims are.

    Some of your guys rhetoric sounds like the sort of thing Ukrainian nationalist and Maidanists are saying about their own anti-war movements.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  kvs on Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:09 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Anti-war marches are a good thing, on all sides. Doesn't matter who it's organized by or what the aims are.

    Some of your guys rhetoric sounds like the sort of thing Ukrainian nationalist and Maidanists are saying about their own anti-war movements.


    You are correct only if these are really anti-war marches and not marches to accuse Russia of invading Ukraine and causing all
    the bloodshed with its GRU "rebels". You know damned well that the latter is the case when it comes to the liberast NATO
    echo chamber in Russia.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:20 pm

    kvs wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Anti-war marches are a good thing, on all sides. Doesn't matter who it's organized by or what the aims are.

    Some of your guys rhetoric sounds like the sort of thing Ukrainian nationalist and Maidanists are saying about their own anti-war movements.


    You are correct only if these are really anti-war marches and not marches to accuse Russia of invading Ukraine and causing all
    the bloodshed with its GRU "rebels".   You know damned well that the latter is the case when it comes to the liberast NATO
    echo chamber in Russia.

    Easy thing to counter though. Just ask the protesters to provide evidence and then they can continue on. Talk is cheap. Ask for evidence and then disperse them. The other thing to to ask, outright, is why they are accepting finances from the west. Doing so will just insult them in from of everyone and they will leave early as they know they were caught being shills.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  kvs on Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:21 pm

    http://www.kp.ru/daily/26285.7/3162451/



    One of the leading liberasts, Yvgenia Albats, goes full retard at the US Embassy when she sees a guy wearing a St. George ribbon at a
    reception for the new ambassador. The new US ambassador to Russia decided to invite more than just US fellow travelers.

    Here is another crone that recently croaked and her liberast opinion:

    http://www.kavkazcenter.com/eng/content/2014/07/13/19342.shtml

    “Ukrainians are doing everything by the book. It’s a dazzling and humane victory. Definitely, Ukrainians discouraged Putin to send his troops to Ukraine, and, if Kyiv makes short work of the separatists in Luhansk and Donetsk, you will be a free nation.

    And those Europeans who were chiding you will stop their lecturing,” G. Novodvorskaya said.

    The memory of OUN and UPA (Ukrainian clandestine Resistance movement and its military branch - KC) helps to fight the oppressors today, she said.

    The jubilant mood in Russia is dwindling. “The Russians are angered, and they will hate you for taking your own way, the dissident said.

    “The Russians are telling more and more lies about their victories in Donbas. It appears that to flee from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk was a victory. Moscow will have to lump new Ukraine but it will always trip Ukraine wherever it can,” she said.

    People need to realize that this is not the mainstream opposition in Russia, this is the lunatic fringe.


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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:29 pm

    I can barely read the Gazeta article as it keeps auto updating itself so it screws up for me.

    So what is happening, people from all sides are participating in this?  Pro Novorussians, Pro Russians, and Anti Russian batshit insaners?  St.Petersburg looks like it is full.  How do these opposition people get so many people to attend?  Or is it not all opposition?

    And how are there such retarded people in Russia? I mean, these people are so far out, it seems like there is something really wrong with them mentally. We do not even have that crazy people here and we have a mayor in a major city who smoked crack.

    So what the fuck is going on in Russia? This shit does not look good, especially if they can gather this many people in St.Petersburg.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Sep 21, 2014 5:36 pm

    http://ria.ru/society/20140921/1025012853.html

    So it was 5000 people, not 50,000? And it was semi highjacked by pro Ukrainians?

    Go figure. What was the outcome in St.Petersburg then?

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  Werewolf on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:01 pm

    sepheronx wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Anti-war marches are a good thing, on all sides. Doesn't matter who it's organized by or what the aims are.

    Some of your guys rhetoric sounds like the sort of thing Ukrainian nationalist and Maidanists are saying about their own anti-war movements.


    You are correct only if these are really anti-war marches and not marches to accuse Russia of invading Ukraine and causing all
    the bloodshed with its GRU "rebels".   You know damned well that the latter is the case when it comes to the liberast NATO
    echo chamber in Russia.

    Easy thing to counter though.  Just ask the protesters to provide evidence and then they can continue on.  Talk is cheap.  Ask for evidence and then disperse them.  The other thing to to ask, outright, is why they are accepting finances from the west.  Doing so will just insult them in from of everyone and they will leave early as they know they were caught being shills.

    I said and demanded it before and i will do it in future, too.

    Countries especially Russia needs laws, when anyone is found guilty of recieving money for going on "demonstrations" should be filed for treason and enemy of the state and jailed for 20 years, rich people should immidiatley not frozen of bank accounts but federalized into state budget to compensate the costs and image damage such fabricated "demonstrations" create.

    The problem is this exact scenario happend in last 20 years far to often and still no law to prohibit this treason acts.
    If you have a problem with a government and you want genuine changes you don't go to demonstrations because some NGO pays you but because you want actual change and everyone should be educated from small on, to be very offended if someone tries to buy your vote or your presence and alliance for political reasons. I also demand that all those politican oligarchs who have been spotted going in and out of US embassy in Russia should be sentenced for 4 decades as treason, if they further found guilty with direct instructions to how politically to act against current government should recieve death penalty for 5th columnistic enemies of russian population.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:06 pm

    I kid you not, some of the Pro-US/NATO 5th-column opposition in Russia are literally veterans of mental health institutions! Female craptivst  Valeria Novodvorskaya who's apart of the Pro-NATO 5th-column, who died recently and who spent many of her years in a mental health hospital! Similarly Gary Kasparov's main backer is Edward Limonov, a violent neo-nazi crackpot! Pussy Riot is also dominated by crackpots, there members are on record stealing frozen chickens in open markets and using them to have explicit sexual acts in public...while the kneejerk reactions spontaneously erupt from the extremely political correct ultra-leftwingers in America, Canada, and the European Union, who explode in to outrage at Russia for having public indecency laws!Rolling Eyes

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:11 pm

    Werewolf wrote:
    sepheronx wrote:
    kvs wrote:
    flamming_python wrote:Anti-war marches are a good thing, on all sides. Doesn't matter who it's organized by or what the aims are.

    Some of your guys rhetoric sounds like the sort of thing Ukrainian nationalist and Maidanists are saying about their own anti-war movements.


    You are correct only if these are really anti-war marches and not marches to accuse Russia of invading Ukraine and causing all
    the bloodshed with its GRU "rebels".   You know damned well that the latter is the case when it comes to the liberast NATO
    echo chamber in Russia.

    Easy thing to counter though.  Just ask the protesters to provide evidence and then they can continue on.  Talk is cheap.  Ask for evidence and then disperse them.  The other thing to to ask, outright, is why they are accepting finances from the west.  Doing so will just insult them in from of everyone and they will leave early as they know they were caught being shills.

    I said and demanded it before and i will do it in future, too.

    Countries especially Russia needs laws, when anyone is found guilty of recieving money for going on "demonstrations" should be filed for treason and enemy of the state and jailed for 20 years, rich people should immidiatley not frozen of bank accounts but federalized into state budget to compensate the costs and image damage such fabricated "demonstrations" create.

    The problem is this exact scenario happend in last 20 years far to often and still no law to prohibit this treason acts.
    If you have a problem with a government and you want genuine changes you don't go to demonstrations because some NGO pays you but because you want actual change and everyone should be educated from small on, to be very offended if someone tries to buy your vote or your presence and alliance for political reasons. I also demand that all those politican oligarchs who have been spotted going in and out of US embassy in Russia should be sentenced for 4 decades as treason, if they further found guilty with direct instructions to how politically to act against current government should recieve death penalty for 5th columnistic enemies of russian population.

    I completely agree.  These people should be dealt with because they are trying to create a problem in Russia.  They want to break that nation apart.  I mean, why protest in Russia, at Russian government about Ukraine?  Why not protest in Kiev about it.  It is them shelling the east.  Not Russia.  Shills didn't even have any photos with them.  Just slogans.

    Thing is, people actually believe them.  So yes, I agree, these people should be instantly labelled as traitor.  Especially if they are caught with getting finances from foreign NGO.

    But judging on the Gazeta article, only about 5,000 people attended the march. I am not sure if this is total amount of people marching or just the supporters of Ukraine. Because there were also supporters of the DNR and Anarchists as well.


    Last edited by sepheronx on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:17 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  Werewolf on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:17 pm

    Any NGO should be registered and monitored same as their funders. If anyone in this line between NGO or their funders is linked to foreign countries or establishments which are in direct responsibility of a government they should be arrested for 4 decades at least and all money directed into state budget and invested in health care and education.

    If you label yourself as a NGO and recieve money from a government that leads only to one conclusion that you are acting on behalf of the funding country and surely not for something of interest of the country this NGO is currently in. If countries want to something change in other countries they can openly contact the countries government but by this shady treasonous actions it is very conclusive what purpose they have.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  magnumcromagnon on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:17 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Anti-war marches are a good thing, on all sides. Doesn't matter who it's organized by or what the aims are.

    Well your'e your wrong to believe that, during WW2 there were pro-Hitler, pro-Mussolini, anti-war and anti-FDR political activists on the far-right such as Father Coughlin, there was also far-left activists who were virtually on the same page such as the American Communist Party, which wasn't actually backed by the USSR nor the Maoists, they were revealed to be actually a astro-turfed front for the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI), to spy on left-wing activists and activities. The mere fact that the FBI was sponsoring the American Communist Party's anti-war and anti-FDR stance was a clear-cut Prima Faci case of treason, against the last Pro-Russian U.S. president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  Werewolf on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:21 pm

    flamming_python wrote:Anti-war marches are a good thing, on all sides. Doesn't matter who it's organized by or what the aims are.

    That part reminds me of 9/11 commission, were they stated it is low to no interest who financed the "attack".

    That tells you alot of who had what intensions.

    It always matters who organized and financed what things and for what purposes because this knowledge of money and what they are used for is direct conclusion of the cause.
    That is one of the most important things in shady covered up political games to know who is actually behind this.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  kvs on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:45 pm

    sepheronx wrote:http://ria.ru/society/20140921/1025012853.html

    So it was 5000 people, not 50,000?  And it was semi highjacked by pro Ukrainians?

    Go figure.  What was the outcome in St.Petersburg then?

    This is the routine BS where the numbers of protestors are inflated by a factor of 10. The New York Times and
    the western media did the same thing during the Maidan protests in Kiev. They claimed there were up to 1 million
    people demonstrating. This is complete nonsense. The physical capacity of the Maidan square is 180,000 with
    people crammed like sardines. If you leave some normal space around yourself (i.e. about one and half feet radius)
    then you instantly have only less than 1/6th this amount or 30,000. I will be generous and concede to 60,000
    in the Maidan square and 40,000-60,000 spread onto the surrounding streets. The figure of 100,000 to 120,000
    is consistent with all the photographs and video of the Maidan demonstration at its peak. So you see the magical
    factor of 10.

    BTW, the number of KIA that the Kiev regime admits to is around 1/10th of the realistic figures I have seen. They
    had lost about 8,000 when they were claiming around 800 until late August.

    Never trust any official figures. Apply your own analysis to filter the BS.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Sep 21, 2014 6:47 pm

    Well, Moscow is saying 5,000. Some idiot in RT is claiming 25,000. The numbers are just to far out there and makes this whole thing just a joke.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  Firebird on Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:09 pm

    What the fuck does a "peace" rally mean anyway?

    Donbass never declared war. It defended itself. RUssia hasnt declared war. All it is is a protest of sentiment. Albeit a fairly vague one.
    The only ones who disagreed with peace were the hohol Nazi scum from Lvov and some parts of NATO etc.

    I dont think it can be considered to be anti Putin in any way. Whatever some loonies on the march might say.

    Reminds me of the protests in Wales at the time of the NATO summit. Some pricks pretending to be Ukrainians refused to march with the anti NATO lot. Because anti NATO ie anti war was considered pro Russia and anti the Ukraine.

    Many contradictions occur. For instance that shiteater Kolomoisky siding with Shite Sektor.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  sepheronx on Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:11 pm

    Your right firebird.

    BTW, the protests in St.Petersburg was only able to muster up around 500 - 600 people. Pathetic really.

    Guess Vann was right, so much for Hilary Clinton's attempt at funding opposition group for change has not come to fruition.

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    Re: The Situation in the Ukraine. #9

    Post  etaepsilonk on Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:12 pm

    sepheronx wrote:Well, Moscow is saying 5,000.  Some idiot in RT is claiming 25,000.  The numbers are just to far out there and makes this whole thing just a joke.

    The estimates vary depending on whether or not journalists and policemen were also counted Wink


    And, according to nemtsov, up to 100 thousand may have taken part.

    Dunno how that was counted, probably includes people who wanted to go, but were prevented by secret services.


    Last edited by etaepsilonk on Sun Sep 21, 2014 8:20 pm; edited 1 time in total

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