The Situation in the Ukraine. #11

How do you see the peace agreement in the future? The Rebels should not have to give up any territory to the fascist Kiev regime. The fascists just saved some of their trapped solider but if the agreement goes into effect on February 15, then hopefully the Rebels kill as many fascist solider they can.

How do you see the peace agreement in the future? The Rebels should not have to give up any territory to the fascist Kiev regime. The fascists just saved some of their trapped solider but if the agreement goes into effect on February 15, then hopefully the Rebels kill as many fascist solider they can.

Regular wrote:So those poor ukr chaps will leave cauldron unharmed, ty putin:D

Sure.. but they will need to remove their heavy weapons from there..
So their presence there will be meaningless because they will be only armed with light weapons that will no
longer able to bomb donetsk and lugansk.. and as a bonus OSCE will be monitoring the positions of all forces..

So essentially this peace deal.. what it do.. is Freeze the war , with the condition that poroshenko support full
autonomy for Donetsk and Lugansk..

the entire peace deal is quite clever the way it was worded.. because it was done in a way that Poroshenko
will be able to sell it to kiev. Since he can now say that Ukraine will take control again of DOnetsk a lugansk
without firing a shot.. and as "proof" all he needs to do is show how they control a line in the borders with
their amazing ak-47s rifles... The Rebels can also create check points near the borders to monitor what happens in the zone controlled by kiev.

Poroshenko can now say that Ukraine officially won the war ,because did not lost Ukraine and Donetsk..
and will control the borders.. but it will be a symbolic victory ,because the rebels will not disarm and all heavy
weapons from Kiev and rebels will have to be removed completely from Donetsk and Lugansk or at least 70km to 90km beyond the actual lines of fighting.

The key here will be if Poroshenko will be able to sell this new peace plan..and is not sabotaged by USA.
So people should relax..this new cease of fire is more good for the rebels than for Kiev..because the control
kiev will have will be a symbolic border so that no new "Russian army" enter. A border that the rebels will easily
overrun in 15 minutes if kiev start the war again.

Here listen what Donetsk and Lugansk leaders say about the peace plan.. they both believe is worth of trying..



So officially the agreement freeze the war.. but at the same time could be seen as a victory for poroshenko (and a defeat for ultra nationals) ,or a victory for the Rebels.. is all just perpective the way you see it.. IN real Practice the negotiations give the upper hand to the rebels. In the long term if kiev breaks the cease of fire.. it will be their end.

Minsk 2.0 ceasefire is a abject failure, both Kiev and Novo forces have already denounced the so called 'agreement'.

magnumcromagnon wrote:Minsk 2.0 ceasefire is a abject failure, both Kiev and Novo forces have already denounced the so called 'agreement'.

They don't agree on certain points that there doesn't seem to have been an agreement on in the end, and the things they do agree upon - they both seem to have their own interpretations as what the printed words mean.

So yeah, I'm not optimistic. Just a speedbump really, I really do not believe that peace can be made with these people in Kiev; they are not following Ukrainian interests nor do they seem to realise that they are driving their own country and society to the brink. They just have to be fought and defeated.

Nevertheless, the last ceasefire really did look like more of a 'breather' and the EU and US were all aboard for continuing to support Kiev's military operations even then.
That's no longer the case, at the very least the EU is starting to get cold feet about supporting Ukraine's war in the east.
For this reason, I will expect the ceasefire to last longer. But ultimately, like I said - there is no peace to be made here. Unrest will continue in the bordering regions too where sympathy for the rebels is high. Ukraine will continue reinterpreting agreements and attempting to ascert control over the border, surround the militias, reposition its own units. It will soon come to low-level skirmishes, and then soon war again.

I think this is inevitable. One side just needs to win. And of course it won't be, nor should it be - Kiev, the rebels need to win this one when the fight kicks off.

meanwhile Kiev parliament is now discussing the cease fire what they think about it..




well not really.. the disagreement was with an anti corruption law.

magnumcromagnon wrote:Minsk 2.0 ceasefire is a abject failure, both Kiev and Novo forces have already denounced the so called 'agreement'.

I am hoping it never gets established and the rebels kick regime forces well back from the major population centers.
Any ceasefire with a minimum 100 km DMZ with enforcement by international peace-keepers is pure nonsense.

Also, the OSCE was given excessive supervisory status in this "deal". They were going to oversee the departure of
the phantom Russian troops from the Donbas and the re-establishment of Kiev's control over the border. This is
total rubbish as well, since the OSCE is a NATO tool and NATO backs Kiev.

flamming_python wrote:
I think this is inevitable. One side just needs to win. And of course it won't be, nor should it be - Kiev, the rebels need to win this one when the fight kicks off.

The problem is that you cannot really win in Ukraine and end the violence with a military victory..
not even Russia can. Ukraine is not Georgia. Ukraine is a split nation in half.. between Pro Russians and
Pro Europeans and neutrals.. and if Russia or the Rebels invade with their tanks kiev and take power there..
it will mean nothing.. Because Obama and Poland and baltic states could continue arming mercenaries and financing
civilians to provoke unrest..for decades.. Road side bombs , rocket attacks.. etc.. it will be like a foreign invasion in middle east. it will be impossible to fully control Kiev without a political process and peace
negotiations.  Look at US army.. took control of bagdad in just 2 weeks with their tanks to remove sadam. and had
to leave because the insurrection against them was too much and the so called puppet Maliki that they placed in power , betrayed them. and became closer to IRAN and Russia.

If the Rebels push for only solving things militarily they will discover that Ukrainians will continue  shelling them..
from farther distance. Because Obama and the Republicans will continue financing kiev war. and when the rebels capture slavyansk.. kiev will shell them from farther distance..and when the rebels capture that farther distance.. they will move even more and continue shelling them.. this can go for decades this war if they do not understand how important is to having public opinion on their side. Rebels if invade mariopol at the wrong moment.. ie that kiev
is still seen as an option for nation future.. the rebels will find themselves fighting civilians women and children pro Kiev. think about an Israeli like occupation.

And what kind of future Novorosiya will have with an isolated Russia from Europe and they depending for everything
of Russia? without europe support? is worth to remember that most Ukrainians do welcome joining europe. So if Russia or Rebels capture kiev.. they will end with a new chechenia with half of the countries cities that they cannot enter. Then if Russia economy default ,then Russia will risk to disbanding itself . Best thing to do is for Russia and Rebels to show they are ready for peace but that will fight back if attacked..and that they are only seeking their rights and security to be respected.  

After this new agreement.. now the pressure will be on kiev because rebels signed the agreement of peace. and are ready for greater special status and remain withing kiev (they know kiev will collapse anyway) . So essentially is a tactic to gain their independence by combining their military with their politics and wining the world opinion.


IF kiev breaks the cease of fire again..and really annoys Europe..as they are slowly doing. they will risk to become isolated from Europe and Europe declared that the sanctions on Russia are wrong and that is kiev the one sabotaging the process.. then Europe could recognize Russia position in public as the correct one. and this is when the real fun
will start.. because if kiev continues not listening Europe and continues to ignore their demands ,a breaking point will happen in relations and sanctions on Russia lifted. and the Free trade zone with Europe and Russia could start.  

No real victory can happen in ukraine until kiev disband by its own.. or the rebels wins the Europans support.
What will happen if Rebels clean devalsevo? they will discover they will need to clean hundreds of others more cities.. because Obama can continue fueling the violence with mercenaries if they get the European support.

So the way to win the conflict is a combination of strong military Defense and political/moral support from Europe. This is true because Russia is not a mega economy like USA or CHINA.. and they cannot handle 20millions or 40 millions more ukrainians into their budget.. their welfare on top of European sanctions and low oil prices.. no chance. The "liberated zones" will be third world nations " with most of its budget depending on Russia. So unrest will be
difficult to control even in pro Russian zones if the economy really bad.

So Russia needs to help rebels hold while at the same time do things in a way that they get majority of European support..
This is already happening..at some small level.. by not including Obama in the Minsk negotiations. and Europe
opposing Obama lethal weapons.

#Debaltseve boiler still closed according to #Ukraine sources. Situation fluid.
h/t @MarQs__

https://twitter.com/ArmedResearch/status/565899531616006144

Hisroyalhighness wrote:

#Debaltseve boiler still closed according to #Ukraine sources. Situation fluid.
h/t @MarQs__

https://twitter.com/ArmedResearch/status/565899531616006144

it seems that now the ukies are trying to do the last push to reinforce better their positions
before the cease of fire start in 48hours.

DPR artillery destroys UAF convoys attempting to break in and out of the "cauldron"

It is said that Ukie facist had tried 4 times to break out, but failed.

Novo response: if you want to get out, give your weapons to us.

http://www.romandie.com/news/Les-soldats-ukrainiens-encercles-par-les-separatistes-a-Debaltseve_RP/565207.rom

This comment from MP.net's Ukrainian Thread made me facepalm so hard I had to respond to it here:

When is Ukraine going to fight Russia and get Crimea back? It's almost a year since the annexation.

The Ukrainian Army has shown its incompetence against the NAF, the Russian Army will mop the floor with them, actually Russia's SSO unit can easily hold their own against a Ukrainian ground invasion of Crimea if paired with artillery, airstrikes, and naval bombardment.

You guys want to see a really pathetic politician? Like even more pathetic than Porky?

New photographs exclusively obtained by the Washington Free Beacon reveal that Russian military forces have been more involved in the arming and training of Ukrainian separatist forces than previously disclosed.
.........
Members of the Senate Armed Services Committee first viewed the graphic pictures in December. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R., Okla.) then obtained the photos and worked to independently verify and confirm the authenticity of the photos, before providing them exclusively to the Free Beacon.

Inhofe said he hopes the images act as a wake up call to the Obama administration and American people, who largely have been spared from seeing the graphic violence inflicted upon Ukraine by the Russian-backed separatists.

“Putin has specifically said he’s not supplying the tanks and all the equipment, so we wanted to bring back to America the actual pictures that prove those are T-72 Russian tanks and they were over there,” Inhofe told the Free Beacon in an interview on Thursday.

Proof of Russia’s deep involvement in the conflict could spur members of Congress to back Inhofe’s bill to provide the Ukrainians with lethal aid.

“These pictures showing the decomposed bodies, their heads chopped off, hanging upside down, show that the separatists under the support of Putin are just as bad as what’s happening with ISIS,” or the Islamic State (IS), Inhofe said.

Oh dear, that is problematic.

UPDATE 3:11 P.M.: Following publication of this story, serious questions have been raised about the authenticity of some of the photographs provided by Sen. Jim Inhofe (R., Okla.). Several images of the Russian convoys appear to have been taken in 2008, during Russia’s conflict with Georgia. Given the similarities between the earlier images and those provided by the senator’s office, the Washington Free Beacon is investigating further and will update as necessary.

.....What?

UPDATE 7:10 P.M.: Sen. Inhofe said in a statement: “The Ukrainian parliament members who gave us these photos in print form as if it came directly from a camera really did themselves a disservice. We felt confident to release these photos because the images match the reporting of what is going on in the region. I was furious to learn one of the photos provided now appears to be falsified from an AP photo taken in 2008. This doesn’t change the fact that there is plenty of evidence Russia has made advances into the country with T-72 tanks and that pro-Russian separatists have been killing Ukrainians in cold blood.”

"Just because I don't have evidence doesn't mean the evidence is not out there."

Brilliant fallacy, also those T-72s are gifts to the Freedom Fighters.

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/exclusive-photos-show-russian-military-in-ukraine-arming-separatists/

Utterly pathetic politician.

Hisroyalhighness wrote:This comment from MP.net's Ukrainian Thread made me facepalm so hard I had to respond to it here:

When is Ukraine going to fight Russia and get Crimea back? It's almost a year since the annexation.

The Ukrainian Army has shown its incompetence against the NAF, the Russian Army will mop the floor with them, actually Russia's SSO unit can easily hold their own against a Ukrainian ground invasion of Crimea if paired with artillery, airstrikes, and naval bombardment.

The most vital problem here is that much of the Ukie troops do not really have a will and a goal to fight for. Sensible Ukrainian people understand that such bloodshed is meaningless for them.

BTW, fighting at the pocket

higurashihougi wrote:

The most vital problem here is that much of the Ukie troops do not really have a will and a goal to fight for. Sensible Ukrainian people understand that such bloodshed is meaningless for them.

BTW, fighting at the pocket

That is correct as shown by the failure of the 4th mobilization.

It's funny Western Ukraine, the one that is gunho about fighting the seps, has the lowest recruitment and mobilization rates.

Hisroyalhighness wrote:This comment from MP.net's Ukrainian Thread made me facepalm so hard I had to respond to it here:

When is Ukraine going to fight Russia and get Crimea back? It's almost a year since the annexation.

The Ukrainian Army has shown its incompetence against the NAF, the Russian Army will mop the floor with them, actually Russia's SSO unit can easily hold their own against a Ukrainian ground invasion of Crimea if paired with artillery, airstrikes, and naval bombardment.

The best comments are those that demand (evil!) "Russians" (probably meaning all Russian speakers) to leave eastern Ukraine. And western mainstream media should actually tell people that most Crimeans want to be part of Russia. There's no Russian "occupation", it simple as that. (But who would want to join Mordor!?) How long can they keep lying/hiding it? Forever?

Yeah... evil Russia stole the Crimea... that explains all the protests and the enormous terrorist rebel force that requires local government forces blowing up innocent civilians with artillery and air power in the Crimea....

I bet the people of East Ukraine wished there were more polite people there and they could have avoided all this...

Vann7 wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
I think this is inevitable. One side just needs to win. And of course it won't be, nor should it be - Kiev, the rebels need to win this one when the fight kicks off.

The problem is that you cannot really win in Ukraine and end the violence with a military victory..
not even Russia can. Ukraine is not Georgia. Ukraine is a split nation in half.. between Pro Russians and
Pro Europeans and neutrals.. and if Russia or the Rebels invade with their tanks kiev and take power there..
it will mean nothing.. Because Obama and Poland and baltic states could continue arming mercenaries and financing
civilians to provoke unrest..for decades.. Road side bombs , rocket attacks.. etc.. it will be like a foreign invasion in middle east. it will be impossible to fully control Kiev without a political process and peace
negotiations.  Look at US army.. took control of bagdad in just 2 weeks with their tanks to remove sadam. and had
to leave because the insurrection against them was too much and the so called puppet Maliki that they placed in power , betrayed them. and became closer to IRAN and Russia.

If the Rebels push for only solving things militarily they will discover that Ukrainians will continue  shelling them..
from farther distance. Because Obama and the Republicans will continue financing kiev war. and when the rebels capture slavyansk.. kiev will shell them from farther distance..and when the rebels capture that farther distance.. they will move even more and continue shelling them.. this can go for decades this war if they do not understand how important is to having public opinion on their side. Rebels if invade mariopol at the wrong moment.. ie that kiev
is still seen as an option for nation future.. the rebels will find themselves fighting civilians women and children pro Kiev. think about an Israeli like occupation.

And what kind of future Novorosiya will have with an isolated Russia from Europe and they depending for everything
of Russia? without europe support? is worth to remember that most Ukrainians do welcome joining europe. So if Russia or Rebels capture kiev.. they will end with a new chechenia with half of the countries cities that they cannot enter. Then if Russia economy default ,then Russia will risk to disbanding itself . Best thing to do is for Russia and Rebels to show they are ready for peace but that will fight back if attacked..and that they are only seeking their rights and security to be respected.  

After this new agreement.. now the pressure will be on kiev because rebels signed the agreement of peace. and are ready for greater special status and remain withing kiev (they know kiev will collapse anyway) . So essentially is a tactic to gain their independence by combining their military with their politics and wining the world opinion.


IF kiev breaks the cease of fire again..and really annoys Europe..as they are slowly doing. they will risk to become isolated from Europe and Europe declared that the sanctions on Russia are wrong and that is kiev the one sabotaging the process.. then Europe could recognize Russia position in public as the correct one. and this is when the real fun
will start.. because if kiev continues not listening Europe and continues to ignore their demands ,a breaking point will happen in relations and sanctions on Russia lifted. and the Free trade zone with Europe and Russia could start.  

No real victory can happen in ukraine until kiev disband by its own.. or the rebels wins the Europans support.
What will happen if Rebels clean devalsevo? they will discover they will need to clean hundreds of others more cities.. because Obama can continue fueling the violence with mercenaries if they get the European support.

So the way to win the conflict is a combination of strong military Defense and political/moral support from Europe. This is true because Russia is not a mega economy like USA or CHINA.. and they cannot handle 20millions or 40 millions more ukrainians into their budget.. their welfare on top of European sanctions and low oil prices.. no chance. The "liberated zones" will be third world nations " with most of its budget depending on Russia. So unrest will be
difficult to control even in pro Russian zones if the economy really bad.

So Russia needs to help rebels hold while at the same time do things in a way that they get majority of European support..
This is already happening..at some small level.. by not including Obama in the Minsk negotiations. and Europe
opposing Obama lethal weapons.

I was kind of upset with this ceasefire but after reading your post vann, it makes sense now. I think Putin played his cards well, what this does is it puts the ball in Kiev's court. If the cease fire is broken(which it likely will be) then the fascist regime in Kiev will break it because the US put their puppet government in Ukraine to make war not peace. If/when the ceasefire is broken, then Russia/the Rebels and hopefully Europe will point the finger at the fascist regime in Kiev and all the Ukrainians and the world will see that it is the fascist Kiev regime that does not want peace. Mean while Russia can collect the debt that is owed by Ukraine and hopefully have some of the sanctions lifted because this meeting in Minsk proves that Russia wants peace, while the US wants war. The fascist Kiev regime will collapse sooner or later because they are set up to fail, the fascist Kiev regime is just killing innocent Ukrainian, while looting their country and the Ukrainians will not let this happen forever.

There cannot be a real victory in Donetsk and Lugansk without money and European support.
The European support is important because is the only thing that can stop the americans to continue
fueling the conflict ,which they can do for decades. USA can completely destroy Donetsk and Lugansk easily..
(ie.. if it is not mine it will be of noone)  , using their proven tactics of provoking unrest in already stable nations..
They bribe politicians with big $$ , they smuggle drugs to create a problem with Russia , they can continue giving weapons to kiev to continue endlessly shelling Donetsk and Luganks from other cities , terrorism.. how about biological terrorism? how about Ukraine nuclear reactors? watch those nuclear reactors.. they will be news if the Right Sector takes control of kiev and RUssia is forced to invade. There is no limit for the sabotage Donetsk and Luganks will experience it will be like a new Palestine . There will be no peace ,just never ending violence..  This is why is really important the support of Neighboring nations of Ukraine too.. or else they will continue fueling the conflict. But for sure Russia will never get the support of Poland and Romania or USA.. but the European Union united can pressure them to stop fueling or else their relations will break.. by just threatening to abandon NATO alone nations like Germany or France ,it will scare the hell of Americans Globalist elite. Panic will be the best word.. because other nations will also follow.. It will be like what happened in South America.. that once Venezuela and Colombia rebel against Europe ,the others followed.


This is why the complete victory for Donetsk and Lugansk will never happen with tanks alone. political support in Europe major economies is also necessary otherwise it will only sink Russia economy with them and make it easier for Americans to divide Russia if they are bankrupt ..Russia had made the mistake of becoming dependent of Europe Business for their prosperity so their actions will have to be measured versus european relations.

So this is why for RUssia is on their interest that Poroshenko is not kicked from Power and that they maintain
good relations with most of Europe... Otherwise it will be total chaos in Ukraine and the anglozionist elite can continue endlessly fueling the violence there. as they are doing in IRAQ and Syria.

Poroshenko throws 800 people and three battalion groups into battle to deblock the Debaltsevo
cauldron and save himself

My friends, in short, the situation is this: from the early morning until almost 17 o'clock there was intense fighting for Logvinovo. Ukry threw all of their reserves for a breakthrough - no less than three battalion tactical groups numbering up to eight hundred people, with the support of not less than forty tanks. According to the militia, fresh, well-armed and well-trained battalions went in the battle.

Despite the fact that they had to advance practically in the open, in full view of the heights held by the militia, under crossfire, they rushed forward with exceptional persistence, ignoring the losses, skillfully using terrain folds and maintaining tactical order.

According to intelligence, these were shock battalions, which the Ukrainian command was saving for a decisive offensive. These battalions have completed a full course of study under the guidance of American and Polish instructors on Yavorovsky base and were recently covertly relocated to the area of the ATO.

But despite the surprise attack, and its strength, the Ukrainian storm-troopers failed to break through the defense of the militia. Having suffered huge losses at the stage of advance and deployment, the attackers failed to break into Logvinovo and the attack chocked on the approaches to the village. The last two tanks were burned just a few hundred meters from the positions of the militia.

But the defenders of the village also suffered heavy casualties from enemy artillery fire. The second attack was repulsed by militia counter tank attack, whose tanks, moving to the village, immediately joined the battle with the advancing enemy.

Advancing across open countryside, Ukrainian infantry suffered heavy losses and was forced to retreat, then the fight turned into an artillery duel. Simultaneously with the attack on Logvinovo, the Ukrainian divisions tried to attack the positions of the militia in the area of Donetsk airport under Chernukhino, Redkodub, and the key heights.

It is obvious that the high command of the armed forces of Ukraine received the strictest orders for the two days remaining until the ceasefire at all costs to turn the tide and to achieve significant tactical victories, recording a victorious termination of another stage of the armed conflict.

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/poroshenko-throws-800-people-and-thee.html

VIDEO: @lifenews_ru reports #NAF have entered outskirts of #Debaltseve. Heavy fighting & casualties on both sides.

Vann7 wrote:

Poroshenko throws 800 people and three battalion groups into battle to deblock the Debaltsevo
cauldron and save himself

My friends, in short, the situation is this: from the early morning until almost 17 o'clock there was intense fighting for Logvinovo. Ukry threw all of their reserves for a breakthrough - no less than three battalion tactical groups numbering up to eight hundred people, with the support of not less than forty tanks. According to the militia, fresh, well-armed and well-trained battalions went in the battle.

Despite the fact that they had to advance practically in the open, in full view of the heights held by the militia, under crossfire, they rushed forward with exceptional persistence, ignoring the losses, skillfully using terrain folds and maintaining tactical order.

According to intelligence, these were shock battalions, which the Ukrainian command was saving for a decisive offensive. These battalions have completed a full course of study under the guidance of American and Polish instructors on Yavorovsky base and were recently covertly relocated to the area of the ATO.

But despite the surprise attack, and its strength, the Ukrainian storm-troopers failed to break through the defense of the militia. Having suffered huge losses at the stage of advance and deployment, the attackers failed to break into Logvinovo and the attack chocked on the approaches to the village. The last two tanks were burned just a few hundred meters from the positions of the militia.

But the defenders of the village also suffered heavy casualties from enemy artillery fire. The second attack was repulsed by militia counter tank attack, whose tanks, moving to the village, immediately joined the battle with the advancing enemy.

Advancing across open countryside, Ukrainian infantry suffered heavy losses and was forced to retreat, then the fight turned into an artillery duel. Simultaneously with the attack on Logvinovo, the Ukrainian divisions tried to attack the positions of the militia in the area of Donetsk airport under Chernukhino, Redkodub, and the key heights.

It is obvious that the high command of the armed forces of Ukraine received the strictest orders for the two days remaining until the ceasefire at all costs to turn the tide and to achieve significant tactical victories, recording a victorious termination of another stage of the armed conflict.

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/poroshenko-throws-800-people-and-thee.html

The fascists were going to do this and I am pretty sure the Rebels knew of this and prepared accordingly. Please keep us updated on whats happening on the ground guys.

All #Ukie attempts 2 break out of #Debaltsevo cauldron were defeated. #NAF in turn went on the offensive in #Debaltsevo street-to-street war
https://twitter.com/revsoc99/status/566318370799501312

The Economist basically concludes that #Ukraine is a failed state - pleads for West to bankroll #Kiev so it can "build a state"
https://twitter.com/revsoc99/status/566327667168133120

Some trophies #NAF captured in the #Debaltsevo pocket #Ukraine
https://twitter.com/Steiner1776/status/566278440522088450

Anti-tank gun, two T-64s, BTR and boxes of mortar shells.