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    Russian special military operation in Ukraine #52

    Kiko
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    Post  Kiko Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:02 pm

    The Russian Armed Forces destroyed the expectations of British intelligence in Ukraine, by Alena Zadorozhnaya for VZGLYAD. 01.03.2024.

    British military intelligence has noticed changes in Russia's approach to long-range strikes. London expected Moscow to launch a series of attacks on the energy sector of Ukraine, but instead, the Russian Armed Forces have been striking military-industrial facilities since the end of December. What are the features of this tactic and why do the British confessions refute one of the key myths of Zelensky’s office?

    British military intelligence  believes that since December 29, 2023, Russia has increased the intensity of long-range strikes on military targets in Ukraine, which may indicate a change in Moscow’s military approaches.

    Recent strikes by the Russian Armed Forces were primarily directed against the defense industry of Ukraine. This, according to British military intelligence, contrasts with last year's major attacks, which primarily concerned the energy sector.

    London expected a repeat of the tried-and-true scenario, but the new operations suggest that Russia may have, at least temporarily, changed its approach to the use of long-range strikes.

    British intelligence also believes that the Russian military is “certainly aware of the growing importance of defense-industrial potential,” so they are preparing for a long conflict. This is stated in  the department’s publication  on the social network X (formerly the social network Twitter, blocked in Russia).

    Let us recall that in the period from December 23 to 29, the Russian Armed Forces carried out 50 group strikes, as well as one massive strike against military-industrial complex facilities, airfield infrastructure and arsenals of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian side claimed that on December 29 alone, 122 missiles and 36 UAVs were fired at five regions of the country. “We haven’t seen so much red (targets) on our monitors for a very long time,”  complained  Yuri Ignat, a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force.

    Against this background, the Ukrainian Armed Forces tried to compensate for  the powerlessness  of their own air defense and mistakes at the front with terror, committing several terrorist attacks in Donetsk and Belgorod. The enemy carried out indiscriminate attacks on civilian infrastructure and places where peaceful Russians were resting on the occasion of the New Year holidays.

    Later, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a conversation with the military, asked: “Should we respond in this way?” “Of course, we can, we can hit squares in Kyiv and in any other city. Denis, there are children walking there, mothers with strollers. I understand, everything is boiling inside me, I want to ask you: do we need to do this, hit the squares?” said the Russian leader.

    “No, I’m not saying that this should [be] for the civilian population, but specifically for the military infrastructure,” Sergeant Denis Shamalyuk answered the president. “And that’s what we do. We hit with high-precision weapons at the places where they make decisions, at places where military personnel gather, and above all at military facilities. That's what we'll do. You probably noticed that literally the next day such attacks were carried out. And today, in my opinion, they are being applied, and tomorrow we will do so,”  Putin said  on January 1.

    Then, on January 2, the Russian Armed Forces actually continued to strike military targets, as  the newspaper VZGLYAD wrote about in detail  . Poland also  drew  attention to these attacks, considering them successful, especially in terms of overcoming enemy air defense systems with Kinzhal missiles. At the same time, the media reported that the Russian army  fired  a record number of Kinzhal missiles at military targets in Kiev.

    Such increased attention to such objects has its own logic.

    For a long time, the West has been pushing Zelensky’s office to somehow establish military-industrial production inside Ukraine. To implement this idea, local specialists had to concentrate the remaining production capacity in Kyiv, since the capital is best protected by air defence systems.

    This, in particular, is indicated by the statements of former People's Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Igor Mosiychuk, who said that the bulk of Russian attacks on Kyiv fell on the Artem plant and the Luch design bureau. “There were a lot of people killed there and all of Kyiv knows it, all the public pages write about it,” added the ex-deputy.

    VGTRK TV journalist Alexander Rogatkin writes in his  Telegram channel  that Luch produces Stugna ATGMs and Neptune anti-ship missiles. In addition, after modernization, the Artem plant could begin production of shells for all artillery systems of various calibers.

    Over the past year and a half, the Russian Armed Forces have already struck the Artem plant several times, but Soviet-built enterprises, as is known, have a serious margin of safety. Therefore, it is not surprising that over time, Ukrainian specialists one way or another restore production lines and repair shops.

    It is also noteworthy that at the turn of December and January, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a series of attacks on large warehouses in the Podolsk, Shevchenkovsky and Solomensky districts of the capital. This, in particular, is indicated by numerous videos that pop up from time to time in the Ukrainian segment of social networks.

    Against this background, the statement by British military intelligence turned out to be an admission of the obvious: the Russian Armed Forces continue to deprive the enemy of military-industrial potential. It is also interesting that with its recognition, London dispelled the myth of Ukrainian propagandists that the Russian military allegedly strikes civilian infrastructure.

    “According to open data, Ukraine previously decided to develop several projects to locate defense enterprises in the country. The statements of Western politicians played a role in this, who persistently suggested that Zelensky’s office independently produce ammunition and at least partially cover the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” says military expert Yuri Knutov.

    “In addition, air defense systems were supplied to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a significant part of which Zelensky brought to Kyiv. Therefore, it is much more reasonable for the Russian military to strike directly at enterprises of the military-industrial complex, and also to deplete the enemy’s air defense,” the interlocutor continues.

    “We are now striking warehouses, drone assembly and production sites, as well as repair facilities. Firstly, it will make the enemy’s position more difficult, given the reduction in supplies of equipment and ammunition from the West. Secondly, Russia strikes in waves. This is a tactical move that allows you to distract the enemy’s air defense systems and wear them out,” the speaker emphasizes.

    “When a series of attacks comes in waves, the equipment does not “rest”, the personnel are not replaced, the enemy has to expend a lot of missiles to repel the attack. To further wear down the enemy, we use several types of weapons at once, including drones, high-precision missiles and so-called decoy missiles,” adds Knutov. –

    It is especially important that with the help of distracting targets we are forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to waste already scarce and rather expensive missiles. And the West’s ability to supply this type of weapons is limited. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have to save missiles and miss some of our strikes.”

    “British intelligence essentially refuted all of Zelensky’s accusations against Moscow about alleged strikes on purely civilian targets. Now it’s even more difficult for him to lie, although this myth was one of the key ones for Zelensky. It is also important that we are increasingly attacking the enemy’s military-industrial complex in Kyiv, although the British themselves write that they did not expect this,” said military expert Alexey Leonkov.

    “This suggests that recently our intelligence has made a qualitative leap forward. We are able to accurately determine which Ukrainian Armed Forces facilities are used as warehouses, where production and assembly of equipment are located, and where enemy manpower is stationed. And thanks to reconnaissance work, we can deliver precise local and effective strikes even in dense urban areas,” Leonkov concluded.

    https://vz.ru/politics/2024/1/3/1247187.html

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    DerWolf


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    Post  DerWolf Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:03 pm

    Fronlime hasnt change much and the advancement are minor, wonder if there would be any big push in near future.
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    Post  ucmvulcan Wed Jan 03, 2024 11:54 pm

    DerWolf wrote:Fronlime hasnt change much and the advancement are minor, wonder if there would be any big push in near future.

    Russia will advance when the time is right. There is currently very little advantage to advancing as the aukrainians are smashing themselves against well prepared Russian positions. Russia is continuing to kill Ukrainians at 2 to 300 thousand a year. Will Russia eventually take the offensive? Perhaps, but its going to be a while. Remember, the west wants Russia to fight a certain way, a heavy fisted operation with all sorts of terrible attrocities that fund an endless guerilla war. Russia has spent the past several months eliminatijg that guerilla army by forcing it to fight the war that Russia is content to fight.

    Secondly, while I would absolutely love for Putin to drive on the Dniepr as I think that's a solid and strong line, this war is what Putin long said it would be, to demilitarize Ukraine, to protect Russian sovereignty, and denazify the country. Nazi ideology is deeply entrenched in Ukraine. He also said that he had no territorial aims. So really, if you see an offensive in the near future don't expect too much more than Kherson and Zaprozhiye, and the rest of Donbass. Ultimately, I think he wants to make the Ukrainian populace sick of war. Another glorious summer offensive by Ukraine probably gets them back to the talks table as they don't have the people left for this war.

    Now if there is a Russian offensive, I think it could happen in August or September right around the time of the Democratic National Convention. It would upend the Biden regime and show that despite all that money, Ukraine lost anyways. Outside of a window of late summer and fall I don't see a Russian operation this year because what's in it for them considering how they are gutting Ukraine with the current strategy?

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    VARGR198
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    Post  VARGR198 Thu Jan 04, 2024 12:10 am



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    Post  kvs Thu Jan 04, 2024 12:24 am



    I am calling BS on the Israeli AESA giving Ukria a 15% hit chance on Kinzhal missiles. Any f*cking radar can detect this missile. The problem
    is having the missiles to intercept it. No species of radar will upgrade the characteristics of any of the existing crop of Patriot missiles.

    If we are going to invoke luck, then where the hell is 15% coming from? Luck is intermittent and perhaps they have a 1.5% chance of interception
    by cluster launches of Patriot missiles. For sure not 2 as they claim is needed. We do not have a single case of interception. All we have
    is retarded claims and camera posing with shell casings.

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    Post  kvs Thu Jan 04, 2024 12:28 am

    A consideration for Russia in this war of attrition is the psychological state of the Ukrian population. There is evidence of growing awareness of
    reality in the brainwashed population. If this can be leveraged to destroy the regime, it is worth pacing the war accordingly. Making big moves to
    satisfy the internet peanut gallery would be moronic.

    The argument that NATzO will supply its Kiev puppets with enough support to justify rapid moves is nonsense. NATzO support has only lubricated
    the self-annihilation of the Kiev regime forces.

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    mnztr


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    Post  mnztr Thu Jan 04, 2024 3:17 am


    The problem with intercepting Kinzhal is essentially the same as KH-22 and 32. They travel so high and fast, the SAM cannot effectively manuver at that altitude as the air is so thin, even a slight manuver by the misslie is enough to avoid interception. When it goes into terminal dive, the window is very short. We are talking 30-40 seconds at M7. And if you hit it you will still get showered with high mach debris.

    kvs wrote:
    I am calling BS on the Israeli AESA giving Ukria a 15% hit chance on Kinzhal missiles.   Any f*cking radar can detect this missile.   The problem
    is having the missiles to intercept it.   No species of radar will upgrade the characteristics of any of the existing crop of Patriot missiles.

    If we are going to invoke luck, then where the hell is 15% coming from?   Luck is intermittent and perhaps they have a 1.5% chance of interception
    by cluster launches of Patriot missiles.    For sure not 2 as they claim is needed.    We do not have a single case of interception.   All we have
    is retarded claims and camera posing with shell casings.  

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    d_taddei2
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    Post  d_taddei2 Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:24 am

    mnztr wrote:
    The problem with intercepting Kinzhal is essentially the same as KH-22 and 32. They travel so high and fast, the SAM cannot effectively manuver at that altitude as the air is so thin, even a slight manuver by the misslie is enough to avoid interception. When it goes into terminal dive, the window is very short. We are talking 30-40 seconds at M7. And if you hit it you will still get showered with high mach debris

    Patriot has a range of 40-60km against ballistic missiles, a kinzhal flying at Mach 7 would only give them 17-25 seconds, if kinzhal flew at advertised speed in terminal which some suggest as Mach 10 they would only have between 12-17 seconds. That's if the terminal phase was start at the range of patriots range limit of BM, we don't know how the terminal phase is calculated when it gets to a certain distance or a certain time to target, but if we used time it could easily be last 30 seconds of flight to target. It's one thing tracking the missile it's another thing hitting it. I strongly believe Ukraine has nothing that can take it down. Even old crusty Biden openly stated it was almost impossible to take down, and they was from a USA perspective. So I highly doubt anything Ukraine has can do it. And with Hodge Podge air defence network Ukraine has it's even worse.

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    Post  Arrow Thu Jan 04, 2024 6:29 am

    Kinzhal in the terminal phase does not fly 10M, but probably at a speed below 5M.

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    Hole
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    Post  Hole Thu Jan 04, 2024 12:19 pm

    You are aware of the fact that the Kinzhal missile is diving onto the target from a height of 20+km and is therefore accelerating? Suspect

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    Post  franco Thu Jan 04, 2024 12:22 pm

    Engineering troops are carrying out a continuous cleaning of the territory of the liberated areas

    Engineering units of the Russian Armed Forces continue to work on demining the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.

    The complete cleaning of the territory of the regions from explosive objects is a task on which the further restoration of socially significant facilities and infrastructure necessary for the establishment of peaceful life and economic activity in the region depends.

    Three representative offices of the International Mine Action Center of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have been formed to organize work in these territories.

    The main purpose of the representative offices is to organize the clearance of terrain and facilities in the territories, coordinate the actions of departments and organizations involved in mine clearance, compile a register of cleared territories, as well as train local specialists.

    Currently, more than 48 thousand hectares of territory, 600 km of roads, 240 km of a water pipeline, 770 km of power lines, 125 km of a gas pipeline, about 4,300 buildings have been cleared by engineering units in the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, more than 1 million 264 thousand explosive objects have been discovered and destroyed, including Large industrial and energy facilities have been cleared of explosive objects, such as the Lugansk Thermal Power plant, the Azovmash plant, the Ilyich and Azovstal plants.

    Mine clearance teams are equipped with the latest means of reconnaissance and search for explosive objects. Their equipment includes multifunctional robotic complexes "Uran-6". To protect the personnel, each sapper is wearing protective suits OVR–2-02, as well as a heavier protection class - Armor-KP-M.

    A feature of the tasks of cleaning the area and facilities from explosive objects is the parallel implementation of work, which includes the clearance of important life support facilities, such as gas pipelines, power lines and communication lines, roads, destroyed bridge structures, as well as the coast and the adjacent water area of the city of Mariupol.

    Another feature of mine clearance in the liberated territories is the presence of a large number of minefields. Minefields are particularly dangerous, since the mining step when installing anti-personnel minefields is chaotic, some ammunition is installed on the ground singly or in pairs in places such as slopes, ditches, roadsides. A large number of mines have been set to be unrecoverable using booby traps and improvised explosive devices.

    For the clearance of anti-personnel minefields, the Uran-6 robotic complexes are actively used, which have shown their high efficiency and made it possible to ensure the safety of personnel.

    PFM-1 anti-personnel mines (Petal) pose a particular danger to civilians, with which the armed forces of Ukraine intentionally mine populated areas, which leads to serious injuries and deaths.

    Simultaneously with the tasks of cleaning from explosive objects, explanatory work is being carried out with the population of cities and suburban areas with the organization of exhibitions of samples of defused explosive objects and improvised explosive devices.

    https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12494399@egNews

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    Isos
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    Post  Isos Thu Jan 04, 2024 1:39 pm

    Hole wrote:You are aware of the fact that the Kinzhal missile is diving onto the target from a height of 20+km and is therefore accelerating? Suspect

    Air friction makes it slow down since it enters the atmosphere at mach 10.

    Generally gravity makes you fall while air makes you slow down and you end up at 200km/h.

    If you enter the atmosphere at 100km/h you will accelerate but if you enter at mach 10 you will slow down.

    Quite wrong here Hole. I thought you were smarter than this No Basic physics.
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    Post  Big_Gazza Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:13 pm

    Isos wrote:
    Hole wrote:You are aware of the fact that the Kinzhal missile is diving onto the target from a height of 20+km and is therefore accelerating? Suspect

    Air friction makes it slow down since it enters the atmosphere at mach 10.

    Generally gravity makes you fall while air makes you slow down and you end up at 200km/h.

    If you enter the atmosphere at 100km/h you will accelerate but if you enter at mach 10 you will slow down.

    Quite wrong here Hole. I thought you were smarter than this No Basic physics.

    Khinzhal, like the Iskander-M on which it is based, continues to run its solid fuel booster as a sustainer engine, and is able to maneourve in its terminal descent phase. The question really is how well the sustainer and gravitational acceleration is able to compensate for increasing friction as air density rises.

    Sounds like you might the one who skipped Physics class? I know I sure didn't... Razz

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    Post  Big_Gazza Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:27 pm

    kvs wrote:I am calling BS on the Israeli AESA giving Ukria a 15% hit chance on Kinzhal missiles.   Any f*cking radar can detect this missile.   The problem
    is having the missiles to intercept it.   No species of radar will upgrade the characteristics of any of the existing crop of Patriot missiles.

    Quite frankly, I suspect that Khinzhal has an effective plasma screen due to its extreme speed, and the plasma is effective as absorbing incident EM radiation (ie radar waves), similar to a re-entering space capsule returning to earth.  Plenty of reports that Ukies (and their NATO leash holders) are unable to track the missiles once launched from the MiG-31Ks and this is entirely consistent with such a screen.  The first use of Khinzhal (the destruction of the NATO facilities in West Ukria) was apparently a complete surprise, no warning raised.  The 1st Patriot battery destroyed last year in Kiev fired off ~30 missiles in a last ditch effort to intercept the incoming missile yet they failed and the battery was taken down.  IMHO these examples lends more credence that Khinzhal has plasma stealth and it severely degrades the performance of (already shitty) Western AD complexes.

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    Post  Isos Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:35 pm

    Big_Gazza wrote:
    Isos wrote:
    Hole wrote:You are aware of the fact that the Kinzhal missile is diving onto the target from a height of 20+km and is therefore accelerating? Suspect

    Air friction makes it slow down since it enters the atmosphere at mach 10.

    Generally gravity makes you fall while air makes you slow down and you end up at 200km/h.

    If you enter the atmosphere at 100km/h you will accelerate but if you enter at mach 10 you will slow down.

    Quite wrong here Hole. I thought you were smarter than this No Basic physics.

    Khinzhal, like the Iskander-M on which it is based, continues to run its solid fuel booster as a sustainer engine, and is able to maneourve in its terminal descent phase.  The question really is how well the sustainer and gravitational acceleration is able to compensate for increasing friction as air density rises.

    Sounds like you might the one who skipped Physics class?  I know I sure didn't...   Razz

    I was talking about free fall and air friction impact.

    Even if it is powered it will loose speed. If it can achieve mach 10 where there is no air then it can't accelerate above mach 10 in the air.

    It can still run its engine but that will be to limit the speed dicrease and not to accelerate. Achieving mach 10 in dense air is not easy and burns a lot of fuel.

    Manouevring can be done without any engine when entering the atmosphere.

    The missile is quite small. I doubt it has enough fuel for having propulsion all the way. More likely it is using a system that turns it off and on when needed.

    In the very last 10km I suspect it speed dicrease a lot. Mach 5 would be still very good.
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    Post  kvs Thu Jan 04, 2024 2:36 pm

    The drag increase is only from the air density increase. The air density e-folding scale is about 10 km in the troposphere. So the drag goes up
    by a factor of e^2 over a 20 km depth which is a factor of 7.4. We are talking about a propelled vertical dive. Suppose the Mach 5 was a real
    and not internet fantasy, then that is only near the surface and not over the 20 km depth. The average speed over the 20 km is over Mach 8.

    20000 m / (8 x 343 m/s) = 7.3 s

    No f*cking way some Patriot missile can hit the Kinzhal in a 7 second window when the Kinzhal is maneuvering. Any interception is dumb luck from
    a sufficient number of Patriot missiles launched into a sufficiently large volume intersecting the potential paths of the Kinzhal.

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    Post  JohninMK Thu Jan 04, 2024 3:10 pm

    The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the new Malva and Phlox artillery guns are already being used in the special military operation (SVO) zone in Ukraine.

    "Malva" is a promising 152-mm self-propelled artillery gun on a BAZ vehicle chassis. It was developed as part of the “Sketch” development work, the Uralvagonzavod concern reported.

    "Phlox" is a 120-mm self-propelled wheeled artillery gun, mounted on the basis of the Ural army vehicle.

    🇷🇺 Sofa General Staff

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    Post  Mir Thu Jan 04, 2024 3:33 pm

    @Isos

    An ICBM warhead free falls from about 100km and hits the earth (impact speed) at about 7km/s Shocked

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    Post  Rodion_Romanovic Thu Jan 04, 2024 3:41 pm

    JohninMK wrote:The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the new Malva and Phlox artillery guns are already being used in the special military operation (SVO) zone in Ukraine.

    "Malva" is a promising 152-mm self-propelled artillery gun on a BAZ vehicle chassis. It was developed as part of the “Sketch” development work, the Uralvagonzavod concern reported.

    "Phlox" is a 120-mm self-propelled wheeled artillery gun, mounted on the basis of the Ural army vehicle.

    🇷🇺 Sofa General Staff
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    Well, even if wars are bad, one of the advantages of this military operation is that many new weapon systems can be used and tested in real combat conditions...

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    Post  Arrow Thu Jan 04, 2024 3:57 pm

    Mir wrote:@Isos

    An ICBM warhead free falls from about 100km and hits the earth (impact speed) at about 7km/s Shocked

    The ICBM warhead reaches 7 km/s before entering the atmosphere. It slows down in the atmosphere and is smaller near the ground.
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    Post  Hole Thu Jan 04, 2024 4:19 pm

    Generally gravity makes you fall while air makes you slow down and you end up at 200km/h.
    True for unpropelled objects like humans.
    While planes tend to go faster in a dive.

    Quote:
    A dive is characterized by high speed and usually by a strongly increasing airspeed in the course of the dive.


    Last edited by Hole on Thu Jan 04, 2024 4:24 pm; edited 1 time in total

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    Post  Isos Thu Jan 04, 2024 4:20 pm

    Mir wrote:@Isos

    An ICBM warhead free falls from about 100km and hits the earth (impact speed) at about 7km/s Shocked

    ICBM enters the atmosphere at mach 20-24.

    The dense atmosphere is 0-10km in altitude. It doesn't have time to slow down too much. It goes through those 10km in matter of few seconds.

    At mach 10 Kinzhal takes just few second more to go through the atmosphere and impact the target. It ks however manoeuvring so pre-launching your patriot to get it near a future position of the kinzhal is impossible. That would be possible if it was a purely ballistic missile, you can calculate the flight sebd a patriot and hope the onboard active radar sees the missile.

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    Post  Arrow Thu Jan 04, 2024 4:26 pm

    possible if it was a purely ballistic missile, you can calculate the flight sebd a patriot and hope the onboard active radar sees the missile. wrote:

    In addition, Kinzhal must slow down so that the active radar can clearly see the target. At a speed of 10M in the atmosphere, the plasma can disrupt the radar signal.
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    Post  Mir Thu Jan 04, 2024 4:26 pm

    Arrow wrote:
    Mir wrote:@Isos

    An ICBM warhead free falls from about 100km and hits the earth (impact speed) at about 7km/s Shocked

    The ICBM warhead reaches 7 km/s before entering the atmosphere.  It slows down in the atmosphere and is smaller near the ground.

    From Wikipedia but I'm sure other sources would corroborate:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intercontinental_ballistic_missile

    Reentry/Terminal phase, which lasts two minutes starting at an altitude of 100 km; 62 mi. At the end of this phase, the missile's payload will impact the target, with impact at a speed of up to 7 km/s

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    Post  Hole Thu Jan 04, 2024 4:26 pm

    The thing about Kinzhal just like the Kh-22/-32 is that they dive down onto their target
    from above the radar (so to say). The radar can detect them far away at a large height (maybe)
    but when the missile is closer your usual radar can´t track it anymore.

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