Russian special military operation in Ukraine #42

As a Finn I'm not quite sure that would the best option. It would be better to do what must done in secret without any public announcements.

The people that control your government and your media have decided that Russia is the enemy, and I don't think anything Russia could possibly say would change their minds, so there is nothing to discuss or argue about.

Separating and breaking all ties is the most sensible thing to do for now because any interaction is likely to be used by the Finnish side to prove they are right and that Russia is the problem and not their own policies and frankly Russia is better off focusing on boosting trade ties with the rest of the world instead of wasting time on countries keen to remain part of the west or to suck up to the US like good little poodles.

That is not to say in some future time that the border can't be reopened and some ties restored and neighbourly relations established, but right now Finland and the Finnish people need to realise that joining HATO and telling Russia they are the aggressors and are evil and that Putin is Stalin is not something Russia can ignore and accept.

There is an English saying... if you can't say anything nice then don't say anything at all... so basically Russia cannot expect Finland to say anything nice about Russia because they are so focussed on impressing their new masters in Brussels and Washington, so why even listen?

Russia can close everything and leave, or they can wait for Finland to seize property and kick them out... I would think leaving is better.

When Russian force withdrew from Eastern Europe they expected US forces to leave Europe too, but that didn't happen either and most of Europes current problems stem from US force in Europe manipulating Europe into doing things that are really not in their interests.

Our Eastern border is closing no matter what Russia does or does not.

So rather than wait to be kicked out they should just leave on their terms.

If there are any ties of value to Finland they wont cut them themselves, so Russia needs to cut all ties and let Finland find out what difference that makes to their lives...
for better or for worse...

I totally understand what Finland is doing, they are a victim of you are with us or you are with the terrorists attitude of the west and I can understand Finland banking on the collapse of Russia being cut off from the entire west over the west collapsing after cutting itself from Russia, but after a year I think Russia is doing rather better than anyone in the west deciding on these sanctions ever thought was possible... but Finland has picked its side.

Think you are missing the point of my question. If they are using a G & T type aiming system alone, why does the bomb need a guidance kit when just the glide part would suffice?

Because the glide kit can steer and after flying for 40 or 50km from altitude down through various layers of weather crosswinds and different temperatures means even an advanced ballistic computing system would be inaccurate at more than 10km or so.

For simple iron bombs and unguided rockets the G&T system can release weapons from standoff ranges and get close to the target from 10km altitude or above, but a gliding weapon that flies dozens of kms or more needs guidance and the glide kits for iron bombs they use have guidance kits included in their design to steer towards specific targets.

They still need something like G&T to work out based on the known glide performance of that bomb whether it could reach the target or not from that height and speed and location, but they are not using the G&T system for accuracy.

It is like the 80mm rockets fired in a lofted flight profile... angled at 30 degrees upwards the ballistic range of the 80mm rockets is fixed and known... say it is 8km... so when the navigation computer says you are 8km away from the forest the enemy troops are moving forward through you raise your nose to 30 degrees and fire off a volley of 40 x 80mm rockets which are going to spread out and cover that forest with splinters and fragments with a good spread out coverage... different angles will reach different distances so depending on the distance to the known area the enemy occupy you can fire from different distances at different angles... the G&T system will calculate it in real time and indicate what angle to hold when you launch your rockets.

You will still be moving forward as you launch and of course there will be a natural spread of rockets over such distances so you get a good spread which is what you want with weapons with HE warheads that kill over an area.

Either way, my question remains, how do the target co-ordinates get into the kit? Do Russian aircraft have the ability to 'talk' to their weapons?

Of course they do.

The Iron bombs are just hung from the attachment points but when used with glide kits the iron bombs are attached to the glide kits which are plugged into the aircraft avionics and receive target information before release... including target data, but also probably flight profiles to reach said target.

With inexpensive correction sets? I doubt that.

I suspect he means pass on target data and perhaps flight profile before launch... rather than digital two way datalink.

It may use Gefest to release the bombs in the "window" It would not surprise me if the bombs are programmed wirelessly.

Iron bombs are not wired in to the aircraft... there is usually a wire attached to the fuse so when the bomb drops the wire pulls the safety pin to arm the bomb as it falls, but with guidance kits I would expect the bomb is attached to the guidance kit and the guidance kit is wired in to the avionics of the aircraft to get target data before launch.

Obviously no communication after launch.

For some reason Russian airforce has been unable to properly neutralize Ukrainian air defense, quite baffling considering that it was nothing but leftovers to begin with and hand-me-downs​ and pittance now and all operated by apes

They had rather better AD equipment than Serbia did... they had enormous numbers of S-300P and S-300V and BUK as well as older types like OSA and Strela-10 and even Tunguska and some TOR... they were better equipped for air defence than most current member countries of HATO.

The most important thing is that HATO has a few systems the post near HQs, whereas the Ukraine had thousands of systems they could place anywhere they liked because they are mobile...

This is one of several reasons why I cannot understand why Russia took EIGHT long years to properly intervene in its homeland of much of the past 1100 years, which was ridiculously called the "Ukraine" for a tiny part of that time.

Ukraine became a separate country in 1991, it was not Putins problem and it took them 8 years to make it his problem of course but that is a different matter.

BTW it is funny those claiming the VKS is useless for not acting like western powers who almost exclusively use air power to solve their problems.

What makes it funny is that this conflict shows that air power alone would be too costly to try to solve this problem and that if the West was trying to deal with Russian forces using only their air power they would get their arses handed to them on a plate.

Russia never relied on air power to solve military problems and the fact that they are not trying now is just normal and sensible continuation of their common sense tactics.

In fact what is interesting is that they have taken air defence from the Army and given it all to the Aerospace defence forces, which suggests that a few of the Russian losses were probably over active Army air defence mistakes rather than enemy action.

If you think about it the Aerospace forces both protecting ground forces on the ground with SAMs and guns but also attacking enemy SAMs and guns makes sense because it would be better able to hit enemy air defence while knowing friendly air defence and hitting enemy air power because it is working with friendly air power and in the same chain of command network.

Again nothing could be further from the truth - all the Sukhois - including the Su-35 have been very active and effective. It doesn't mean you have to fly directly over enemy positions to have an devastating effect on the battlefield.

And the use of glide kits will improve their ability to deliver large amounts of HE to targets from standoff ranges.

A glide kit on a 500kg bomb is devastating, and the Kh-38 is a 250kg bomb with a rocket motor attached to reach targets 40km plus away too.

The navy is an afterthought and always will be

They have had their belief that artillery is king confirmed because it is always available and so they had large amounts of artillery with their forces from the beginning... enhanced and made even more powerful with drones to find targets and assess damage and the need for follow up attacks.

Air power is important, but not more important than the Army, but the need for the Navy is going to increase... but not SSNs and SSGNs... surface patrol ships... the Buyans will be rather more than a 6 ship fleet I suspect because of their range and low cost they will be very useful around the world for policing duties making sure pirates like the US Navy and UK Navy and French Navy don't do what they normally do... piracy on the high seas.

Funny, not long ago when I said su-34 is outdated and can't face modern threats vecause of its huge RCS uou were the one saying it was a fantastic aircraft used all over Ukraine.

The air situation over Ukraine is actually more dangerous than the air situation over most HATO countries, and the biggest threat to attack aircraft over HATO countries would probably be a dozen or so fighter planes depending on the country... the first few Su-34s could carry 12 AAMs and clean out the aircraft while hypersonic missiles take down airfields and SAM and radar sites as well as HQs.

There might be a few nuclear power plants or dams the Su-34s will go after but they will go low and fast and probably have Su-35s and Su-57s and S-70s flying top cover eliminating threats as they pop up.

Of course tactical nuclear missiles will have leveled local airfields and cities nearby so it might just be a question what are they needed for...

I doubt it's that many actually. They are very precise gliding bombs thus having 20 hits per day would bring significant results.

Why would they lie?

Glide bombs hit a coordinate, they are no good for moving targets so things like fuel dumps and ammo dumps where a powerful bomb (500kgs) can penetrate a few layers of soil to get the ammo and fuel underneath make sense and you might target four bombs per ammo or fuel dump because anyone building an ammo dump will spread it out with fire gaps in the hope that one hit wont destroy it all, so hitting it in different locations at different times would make sense.

Even if the enemy air defence shot down two or three... the glide kits are not super expensive or complex... it probably has the aerodynamic components of a cheap drone and the intelligence and processing power of a cheap phone with GLONASS receiver, so we are likely talking about a guidance kit for less than 1K dollars with a cheap iron bomb... this is amazing value for money.

If you monitor enemy air defences and spot some launches you can send some drones to investigate and take out those SAMs as well...

They don't seem to help grab land since the front don't really move.

This isn't about Russia moving forward and grabbing more territory, this is about hitting all the fuel and ammo and troops they are building up for their offensive and destroying as much as they can... if they can get enough they can then decide whether they want to go on their own offensive or just keep whittling down the enemy forces.

Land grab will change when more troops are committed to the fight

No point moving forward now... destroy the enemy counter offensive force first as they form up for their attacks and then once they are gone you will be able to advance in multiple places that they wont be able to defend all at once.

they keep using the fat kh-29 from soviet times.

The Kh-29 is rather accurate and with a 320kg HE warhead it packs a serious punch...

It may not be 20 per day. I don't know. As for lack of advances, the only place Russia seems to be pushing is around Bakhmut. Lots of forces seem to be preparing for the AFU counter-offensive. AFU is only holding 5% of Bakhmut now.

Glide bombs are for fixed locations so smashing fixed locations while the other side is trying to build up forces and concentrate forces for an offensive makes sense.

For goodness sake a single Su-25 could carry 8 glide bombs in one sortie if it wanted to... one Tu-22M3 could carry 30.

Breaking through at Bakhmut could have an interesting effect, though. Could see Russian forces spilling out west and north of the city, forcing another AFU diversion.

Once the ammo and fuel and new vehicles and a large portion of the troops the Orcs are gathering for their attack get taken out Russia will be able to attack in lots of different areas at one time... with most of their offensive reserves destroyed the Orcs wont have the forces remaining to cover lots of lines of attack at one time and would be overwhelmed, and in lots of places will collapse...

Backman wrote:I know this guy has his critics. His assumptions have always been more realistic than Military Summary. He rarely over estimates Ukraine the way MS does.
he makes an interesting analogy about Egypt and Suez. He also says that Russia is light on troops in Kherson. Russia is a big country. Id like to think they aren't light on troops anywhere. There's no reason to be 

How do they plan to do an offensive without air superiority or artillery superiority? Or logistics?

Backman wrote:

How do they plan to do an offensive without air superiority or artillery superiority? Or logistics?

They are going to try and make it all up with numbers. Big numbers and big risks. Ukrainian retards will seemingly do anything regardless how transparently suicidal it is. They will take advantage of that.  The US has the entire country imprisoned. There is still probably a million more men to send to the front. How do they have logistics all the way to the front now?

Just sounds like a way to throw away a lot of lives, gain a few miles, maybe a settlement or two and theb wind up on the losing end of a Russian counterstroke