Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

Saw a post on TG that Rogozin's injuries were serious. Not sure if true or just Khokhol NATzO propaganda

Word to the wise - it's a war-zone, not a place for posing in front of the cameras or celebrating in restaurants

With more resources . The smaller economy , has to fight smart , not hard . The smaller economy is exhausted first . 

Russia is the side with more ressources. With much cheaper energy. And it´s real economy is not smaller than that of
NATO countries. Virtual economy looks great on charts but doesn´t help in a war.

Ukro AD has trouble hitting a drone. Anyone can ID the drone ?

I don't believe the economy has such a massive impact. It's all about behavior, mindset and how you chose to lead. Like Putin said in one of his earlier speeches; you need to make sure to avoid bureaucracy and formalism and he is absolutely right. That statement is maybe one of the most important key things people need to recognize.

The US has a multi multi multi billion budget for defense that far exceeds the Russian budget. But a lot of that budget is wasted on bureaucracy, political games, assessments, analysis, adjustments and so on. Every actor in the process takes a piece of the pie and will do everything they can to stretch their assignment as long as they can make money from it. The budget is a political game by senators for their constituents; "see my appointment and my ability to secure budget for our state made sure you all have jobs".

If you are able to spend your budget efficiently, trying to reduce the bureaucracy and process creep, operate with high agility. Then you can get much more value from a much smaller budget and with more agility also comes more ability to innovate and try out things on the battlefield. It doesn't work, adjust, retry.

Ukro AD has trouble hitting a drone. Anyone can ID the drone ?

https://twitter.com/ZaTritsa/status/1606255674702368768?s=20&t=VJRI4Bky5l3GCsYKTwPNZA

Zala 421-12

Still to much hot spots.

After 2 weeks, wagner has failed to make any progress in opytnoe. The suburb is 200wid and 450m long. Its just a few dacha houses, a few blocks and a store. Thats it. Yet wagner has been "advancing" there for the past week with 0 progress, and celebrating that it took 300m there in 3 months.


Kleshcheevka wont be taken until maybe march 2023. Its far too heavily fortified. Its surrounded by hilltops with large underground bunker networks, and the troops there are supported with at least 30 western artillery pieces(40km+ range) and several  M270 launchers, because its such a critical village.  And wagner doesnt use thermobarics 99.5% of the time. Wagner doesnt use airburst artillery either There will also be no russian air support in the for of heavy bombs. This means they will use shitty contact fuze 120, 122 and a little 152mm shells to inaccuratebombard the hilltops, doing barely any damage. Just like zaitsevo and veselaya dolina, it will take 3 more months at least before kleshcheevka is taken.

As far as I understand, Wagner doesn’t their own artillery per se, their purpose is to inflict casualties on Ukrainians, probe and soften the likes. Think of them as endless waves of DRGs.

I believe main punch will come from Russian army itself

Recently so many footage with a lot of tanks in telegam and twitter.

The primary purpose of war is the destruction of the enemy’s ability to resist. That is a long process – weapons and ammunition destroyed, supply routes blocked, war production stopped, political will broken. And it’s a bloody process – the enemy’s soldiers must be killed or maimed. Clausewitz –
https://sonar21.com/ukraine-war-what-next-by-helmholtz-smith/

PhSt wrote:Saw a post on TG that Rogozin's injuries were serious. Not sure if true or just Khokhol NATzO propaganda

The splinter in the back, a centimeter from the spine, they did not dare to operate on the spot, since the operation is complicated. They can't transport him to Moscow yet, because of the weather conditions. At least, he continues to post messages on social networks.

As far as I understand, Wagner doesn’t their own artillery per se, their purpose is to inflict casualties on Ukrainians, probe and soften the likes. Think of them as endless waves of DRGs.

I believe main punch will come from Russian army itself

Pretty sure both Wagner and the Chechen guys are used for the ultra high risk job.. aka storming the enemy positions on foot.

Given the types of people that end up in those groups, they are less likely to cause a stir if they die.

I have been sick yet again, the cold at the office is killing me.

I am feeling a bit better, for those in the know, how many Ukro brigades have gone through the Artemovsk meat grinder already?

According to the latest reports

24th, 57th, 30th and 71st Jaeger brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Bakhmut,



128th Mountain Assault in Soledar


The casualties are mounting, judging by this item, so where was the 92th Brigade fighting to suffer 700 dead and likely twice that in wounded? That's likely 50% losses (I believemost brigades average strength is 3.000)


https://antimaydan.info/2022/12/istochnik_krematorij_harkova_zanizhaet_statistiku_po_poteryam_vsu.html

"Yesterday," Sent to Ukraine " [another Telegram channel-Ed.] reported that the relatives of the AFU militants cannot find their relatives who last contacted them in the area of the settlement of Novoselovskoye. We managed to contact a subscriber from Chuguev, who confirmed that all local hospitals and morgues are filled with the bodies of AFU militants. Russian military officers reported that only from December 1 to December 10, 346 bodies of the dead were delivered to the Chuguev morgue (32 Stadionnaya Street). The subscriber not only confirmed this information, but also updated it: over the past 10 days, about 350 more bodies were delivered there, 80 of which are from Novoselovsky district. Basically, these are the bodies of those destroyed from the Kharkiv 92nd separate mechanized brigade, " the channel reports.

I have seen somewhere but I can't find it that the 92 Brigade has been rotated out and replaced by a 120 Brigade of Volkssturm

EDIT:

"The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost more than 250 officers in Bakhmut during the month due to NATO tactics: details

Since the end of November, the death rate of junior and senior officers in the AFU units deployed to Bakhmut has been exploding"

"According to the Military Chronicle, the largest losses among platoon and company commanders were recorded in the 57th motorized infantry, 60th infantry, 46th airmobile and 59th motorized infantry brigades of the Ukrainian army, which arrived in Bakhmut to strengthen the defense and strengthen the front."




Data on the dead soldiers and officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine according to the analysis of the media and social networks for the day on December 22-23, 2022.
Artemovsk (Bakhmut) - 327 people.

In total, there are about 700 people on the Donbass front.

The main parts of the bearing losses near Bakhmut:
- 10 mountain brigade
- 97 brigade
- 79 brigade (other reports claim this suffered heavy losses in Maryinka, the brigade might have been split in two sectors, and  I recall I wrote something about this, about "dowry" units, but to err in the side of caution I am not counting it)
- 57 brigade

The rotation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Bakhmut military conglomerate is more than 2,000 people per day.


So summing it up, these are the identified formations:

Brigades

10 mountain brigade
24
30
46 airmobile
57 motorized infantry
59 motorized infantry
60 infantry
71 Jaeger
79 brigade (part of it)
93
97 brigade
120 Territorial (replaced 92)
128 Mountain Assault

That's a dozen (!) brigades, the previous report I read from a few weeks ago was that 4 were out, so the sector around Artemovsk is sucking even more forces than I thought

Ukrainian Army's 128th Mountain Assault Brigade is at least partially composed of the ethnic Rusins from the Trans-Carpathian Rus?

Any defections from them?


https://asaland.proboards.com/thread/278/transcarpathian-rus-demands-independence



They did not want to take up arms to fight for their own independence, now they are used by the Ukrainians as cannon fodder.

@Ispan
I have seen somewhere but I can't find it that the 92 Brigade has been rotated out and replaced by a 120 Brigade of Volkssturm

That's correct. There is a video from 120th brigade in Bakhmut. I believe that it is not 92nd, but 93rd brigade that was rotated out. They are shipped back to Chernigov oblast.

I am feeling a bit better, for those in the know, how many Ukro brigades have gone through the Artemovsk meat grinder already?

I have the feeling they have no such things as brigades or regiments or any other form of structure.

They just send as much people as they find on the front giving them the order to shoot at any russian they see.

VVP in Tula.

That's a dozen (!) brigades, the previous report I read from a few weeks ago was that 4 were out, so the sector around Artemovsk is sucking even more forces than I thought

According to some "former" american officer most of these units lost around 70% of their personnel in the last days/weeks.

@Isos

They still maintain structure and try their best to rotate, what is going with teroborona is other discussion. It seems they only rotate them in bodybags.

It's not a feeling, you are right. I wrote about it recently, but all the Serbian "Vinjak" (brandy) I drank to heal my sickness obliterated my memory


https://guerraenucrania.wordpress.com/2022/11/16/ofensivas-y-tacticas-de-ataque-y-defensa-de-ambos-bandos-iv/

Excerpt:

Organization, or lack of it: what are the "donation" units?


In fact, the command of the Ukrainian army, when forming any offensive group, is forced to be content with units of various formations, since there are practically no brigades left in the army structure that have retained their organic integrity.

The fact is that for various reasons, almost all Ukronazi formations are forced to disperse into companies and battalions in different parts of the front. For example, units of the 14th Mechanized Brigade may have been identified simultaneously in Ugledar, Bakhmut, Kherson, Svatovo and in the temporary cantonment in Dnepropetrovsk. And this is not an intelligence error, but quite reliable information. Since the headquarters of this 14th Brigade, according to the combat orders received, was forced to send, for example, a mechanized battalion to Ugledar, a tank company to Svatovo, an artillery group to the Kherson direction and a reconnaissance company to Bakhmut, and at the same time, the headquarters and the remaining units are in Dnepropetrovsk to instruct and frame replacements. This state of affairs is present in almost all brigades of the Ukrainian army. Of course, this excludes the use of whole brigades or divisions.

At the front, separate battalions of the brigades are placed under the command of several temporary groups. At the same time, they remain in the status of "donations" ("dowry", like that of the bride, in the original), and the brigade commander often does not even know what his battalion is doing. Accordingly, the brigade commander loses the ability to regularly provide supplies and replacements to a unit separate from the parent unit. And in the group to which the battalion is transferred, this unit remains in the form of a "dowry" or "donation" - this is like someone from outside the family. And when it comes to providing supplies, the "dowry" units are the last, because the commanders give priority to their own units over temporarily attached units that can be withdrawn and sent elsewhere at any time.

It seems they only rotate them in bodybags.

Rotation is rotation.