Russian special military operation in Ukraine #34

Nice they will test in real their kh-58 and kh-31, as well as Kinzhal against Patriots and Aster missiles since Macron said they will send them some.

Miss Low Def, the Patriot Missile is a lot like the NFL's Patriots after Brady. It lives on reputation alone but against the better teams of professional gridiron football it doesn't mean much. Looking forward to the 50,000 dollar drones taking out yet another useless multi million dollar weapons system. As far as the war Ms. Low Def, how goes Bakhmut. I understand a lot of your friends are ending up in garbage bags.

Navy Lookout
@NavyLookout
THREAD:

Ukrainian sources provide more detail on the sinking of the Russian cruiser RFS Moskva in April 2022

First Ukrainian-made Neptune Anti-Ship Missiles delivered to just days before invasion on 20th Feb mounted on Transporter erector launchers (TEL).

Neptune missiles launched at Russian amphibious ships in February were shot down but provided some deterrent effect

Missiles fired subsequently did no damage. Investigation by manufacturer (Kiev Design Bureau Luch) discovered a fault with warhead fuses (possibly sabotage) this was quickly rectified.

Moskva was detected by shore based by radar on April 13th about 120km off coast - radar range unusually extended by cloud conditions.

Western ISR support was not involved in the attack.

At 4pm two missiles were launched from TEL (Report claims this is photo of actual launch)

Bayraktar UAVs unable to be launched to verify if the missiles had hit due to very low cloud.

Ships rushing to aid of sticken Moskva from Crimea and other directions were the first indications of a hit.

A sudden storm hampered rescue of sailors from the sinking cruiser.

In terms of AD, what Ukraine needs is tons of Pantsir and the like. Cheap, highly mobile and effective SHORAD with no strings attached, that is. But yeah...

........................................

Exactly. They need short range missiles which are much more efficient to fight especially drones . Patriots are not suitable for this type of target. In addition, to be effective, the necessary amount to be used would be enormous, which I think does not even exist.
The question is that the West needs to give some response to the current situation, since the old systems of Soviet origin are practically destroyed, with no possibility of replacement, and Ukraine is without effective air defense, except MANPADS.
This brings me to the question of how far the West is willing to put its most sophisticated weapons to fight Russia.
So far they have been reluctant, but the exhaustion of Soviet armament may force them to have recourse to them.
But if I were a Russian general, I would make the Patriots a priority target. The psychological blow of defeat would shatter the morale not only of Ukraine, but of its western sponsors.

Patriot is worse than useless. Into the trash it goes.

Patriot will suck in a lot of manpower and energy for nothing. 

I put this here because I´m lazy:

The Russian Finance Ministry stated that the budget surplus was 557bn rubles in the first 11 months of the year.

Western reaction: 

mr_hd wrote:so patriot missiles are coming to Ukraine, Russia will have more and more failures there, war is lost basically

Shit if you can call 300,000 Ukrainian losses, depopulation of 10+ Million, de-electrification, massive territorial losses, and continued manhandling by some mercenaries a victory

I pray I never see what you term a defeat

Well Archangel, that would be mushroom clouds and a cloud of radioactive dust spreading around the world with deaths in the upper 9 or lower ten digits.

Retarded Fuckwit wrote:so patriot missiles are coming to Ukraine, Russia will have more and more failures there, war is lost basically.

The retardation is strong with this one...

I am not sure how Patriot missiles would be effective in Ukraine, unless Kiev intends to deploy them near the frontlines. They could cause problems there but would be more vulnerable to attack. But in terms of defending against drone and missile swarms? Useless.

18+ full video of the DPR battle for Pervomaisky

NSFW for killed Ukrainian troops after the 12:55 minute mark.



18+, Bakhmut Meat Grinder

!NSFW! for injured troops, body mutilation. extreme violence

klick here for video:

I tought Kherson was bad for the Ukrainians, but Bakhmut became a whole new level on its own.

Mike Mihajlovic
@MihajlovicMike
·
5h
NATO Patriots in very close to the border with active radar emission are perfect to stage provocation: MiG-29/Su-27 with the old Soviet antiradar missile fly nearby, detect the radar emission, lock and launch, score hit and Article 5 mongers scream as a attack...

Journalite
@journaIite
·
9h
According to reports, Germany plans to deploy Patriots on Polish-Ukrainian border in order to create a more-protected air space over Western Ukraine. The plan is to engage on incoming Russian missiles over Western Ukraine, by firing air defence missiles from Polish territories.



Rob Lee
@RALee85
·
6h
“The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official”
https://cnn.com/2022/12/13/pol

Kiev is starting to feel the shortage of anti-air capabilities with no adequate restocking in sight, a senior Ukrainian official told the outlet

Ukraine running out of vital weapons – Financial Times

Ukraine is exhausting its supplies of munitions and spare parts for the Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defense systems used to counter Russian strikes on the nation’s energy infrastructure, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing a senior Ukrainian military official.

The Ukrainian Air Force’s chief spokesperson, Colonel Yury Ignat, told the outlet that his air defense units usually fire two S-300 or Buk missiles at every Russian projectile to raise the chances of interception . This poses certain challenges, however, since it is impossible for Ukraine to procure additional missiles for these systems, which are produced in Russia. Meanwhile, finding the available stocks elsewhere has proven difficult, the report says.

Ignat went on to state that while Kiev is receiving modern air defense systems from its Western backers, Ukraine would need “hundreds” of such weapons to replace its aging arsenal.

“We have no other choice but to switch to these types of weapons since the Soviet weapons of the [19]70s and [19]80s are both… obsolete and the enemy is exhausting them every day,” he said.

https://www.rt.com/russia/568165-ukraine-shortage-air-defense/

@Rybar on the Need for Strikes on General Control Points (GCPs) and their Impact on Ukraine's Energy System

Colleagues from the @cat0news channel responded to our post and disagreed the need to hit the GCPs, the destruction would not disable substations (PS) and it would be easy to deal with the consequences.

Hitting the GCPs is useless?

It would indeed not instantly shut down the PS. Power will flow through transformers, circuit breakers and disconnectors for some time.

But you can't manage all the power distribution manually without the GCP, cause the auxiliary equipment and PS drives require power from the auxiliary transformers. And these are most often located just in the GCP building.

What happens if they are destroyed?

The fan and oil circulation pumps in the autotransformers will stop working, without the units will overheat and simply fail.

The operating current, which is used to power the relay protections of the auxiliary transformers, will disappear. This is obtained from the rectifier units and is backed up by batteries installed in the GCP building.

Theoretically new rectifiers could be installed and everything can be powered by diesel generators. But in practice it's more complicated.

Problem 1 Cable Network:

There are control cables with a total length of tens of kilometres all over the GCP. There is no way to reconstruct the entire network fast. The lack of cable logs, even if they are marked, makes it impossible to find out fast where exactly the cables are going.

Problem 2 Emergency Protection:

When the GCP is destroyed, all outgoing lines from the PS automatically lose their protection functions. Redundancies at neighbouring PSs will not help. By the time they are triggered, the equipment will have already been damaged.

Even before, such a situation was extremely risky, although short-circuits on 330 kV lines are extremely rare under normal conditions. But now the Ukrainian power system is in a critical state, with overloads and short circuits occurring all the time.

Without protection and emergency automation, PS equipment will not last long and will also fail.

Are there any Solutions?

At first glance, replacing the destroyed elements of the GCP can be replaced with counterparts made from improvised materials. And really, what's the problem with using an ordinary domestic controller instead of microprocessor protection terminals?

But it isn't.

Even with such equipment, the problem of rebuilding a cable network, where all lines will have to be rewired and unplugged, does not go anywhere. This is a time-consuming process and will require disconnecting the devices for the duration of the work.

Once a circuit has been assembled "on the spot" and wires have been connected to the I/O blocks, there is no guarantee that it will function correctly. A program is also needed to provide the basic functions of the fault interlocks and relay protection. This will take several months to write.

What is the result?

Dispatchers and operations staff still won't know where and how much current is flowing, how active and reactive power is flowing, what is the status of the network and voltage on buses.

The protective functions of load limitation, overload control and frequency drop protection will disappear. A huge segment of the network would simply fall out of control and monitoring.

As a result, the PS simply cannot be controlled without an GCP. And no amount of "on the fly" work will remedy the situation.

🩸 And if we imagine that the number of facilities with destroyed PSs will grow every week? How can you manage the power system without understanding consumption capacity and the nature of flows? You can't.

That's why strikes on the GCP will multiply the effect of taking autotransformers that were damaged during previous attacks by the RF Armed Forces. It will be more productive than taking out only the power equipment and will prevent the Kiev regime from restoring the system.


https://t.me/sitreports/2041

think Putin stated they will be rebuilding kherson as well.

Seems that Nazis in Kiev are receiving Christmas care packages courtesy of Surovikin.  They'll say its santa, but nah its Surovikin.  Those little bastards are all on Santa's naughty list. . . . Surovikin's too. . . .

https://twitter.com/TheHumanFund5/status/1602884571174952961?s=20&t=hRKJtlUcPNEQeNFneec02Q

https://twitter.com/runews/status/1602903054319239168?s=20&t=hRKJtlUcPNEQeNFneec02Q

By the way what is the latest from the Donbas?

@ucmvulcan
I took a few weeks break from the smo, just finished viewing an unhealthy amount of TG posts, and nothing has changed , so the latest is … whatever it was last time you checked.

The one good thing I like about Russia is their restraint. They know their place. There have been attack on Russian military bases and infrastructure INSIDE Russia. With NATO supplied Intel and weapons and they have not retaliated.

When Saudis and Pakistanis destroyed the World Trade Centre and also seriously damaged the Pentagon building... the US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan... they got Osama Bin Laden ten years ago... he was in Pakistan.

It seems instant retaliation serves a goal... the US MIC made trillions on those conflicts, but they didn't really make the US much safer really... showy and expensive, but largely ineffective.

Russia attacking HATO would start WWIII and that would damage the Russian economy.

Current western sanctions are forcing Russian companies to stop selling to the rest of the world through western companies via western ports and shipping companies using western insurance agencies... the increase in energy prices and the Russians putting extra taxes on energy exports because they are making so much money means the Russians are making billions off this situation... the longer it continues the better off they will be because they will make more of the money their products and resource sales generate around the world...

I don't believe that such ongoing topics like Saloreich and phoney Minsk agreements are touched by Merkel and alike out of the blue. It hints more to a subtle initialization of changing politics. This isn't going to last forever in favor of Saloreich nor their backers and they realized that quite some time ago. Now they need to change the rhetoric to safe face. Maybe they will come up with "we were fooled" by these agreements or some other nonsense.

Merkel was thought of with great respect in the west, her admission of this duplicity is giving her memory a real hit, this will really damage her legasy... so we have to ask why... and I suspect the EU if not the US are realising that continuing down the road of demonising Russia can only lead to WWIII in which everyone loses... if they are looking for a way to pull back from that by recognising that Russia did have good reason to do what it did and that the west was partially to blame even if they will claim it was for the right reasons, then compromises will be more possible and this conflict could end and they hope their energy prices will go back to what they were which will solve a lot of their problems.

Their real problem is that they have caused some real damage and lots of people died and they were total about this, and with this admission how can Russia ever trust them again... why would they?

So the solution for Russia is to take all of the Ukraine and for HATO and the EU and US to not be part of the process of rebuilding the country... let the pro west Ukrainians flee to the EU and not come back, and Russia can sort things out on their own without western interference.

If the west wants to continue an insurgency the locals will get sick of that BS pretty quick, especially if regions where the terrorists can roam free and get local support will be cordoned off and left to fend for themselves... no rebuilding for them.

The Mig-29s are going to replaced with crappy used F-16/18s. These eastern European outposts of NATzO can't afford the F-35
wunderwaffen.

Nobody can afford the F-35, that is the point, but they will be pressured to buy them anyway... once it is clear that they are eye wateringly expensive to operate too, then they will look at used F-16s (even used F-18s are expensive), but that market will be thin too... Maybe Venezuela could sell them with US permission... or Egypt or Turkey...

Open sources say there were 3 version, A, P and S for nuclear, antiradar and antiship.

Open sources are just assuming the same versions as for the Kh-22M which is the much larger missile used for similar purposes on the Tu-22M3... the Tu-22M3 could carry three Kh-22M missiles at one time, but could carry 10 of the much smaller and more compact solid rocket powered Kh-15s.

There was no anti ship Kh-15, that was just western speculation. The only model Kh-15 was a nuclear armed short range attack missile used by strategic and theatre bombers to clear a path through air defences... interceptor aircraft and major SAM sites on the ground with this mach 5, 300-400km range solid rocket powered missile.

It was retired early because there was no conventionally armed model.

so patriot missiles are coming to Ukraine, Russia will have more and more failures there, war is lost basically.

A patriot battery that targeted an F-16 in the Gulf war was destroyed with a HARM easily enough... good chance to test themselves against such a system... their ELINT aircraft will locate them and they can send drones and missiles to destroy them easy enough... Patriot is not as mobile as Soviet SAMs.

War is closer to the end with the west getting this desperate... all they gave the Afghans in the 1980s were MANPADS and ATGMs... now they are handing out the family silverware and they are still losing.

Patriot is fine. But as with any other system the weaknesses begin to show when stuff gets real hot. It hasn't really performed all that well anywhere, to be frank, and AD always has to be competently layered anyway.

Patriot in itself is not the problem... the problem is that they don't have any smaller more numerous systems to place near it to defend it from attack so the first time is launches and reveals its position it will get hammered.

Positioning S-400 without TOR or Pantsir or S-350 would have the same problems... even though that is a much more capable system.

The only thing that sounds logical to me is when I look at it from a corrupt economical perspective. The MIC has its political lobbyists, all working to enable them to sell more to keep business going. Depleting stock is brilliant, and even better - the newer models that will have to be ordered to replenish the domestic arsenal are more expensive. Very lucrative.

In terms of AD, what Ukraine needs is tons of Pantsir and the like. Cheap, highly mobile and effective SHORAD with no strings attached, that is. But yeah...

So perhaps the plan is to expose how bad Patriot actually is to get funding for a new replacement... perhaps based on S-400 or its equivalent... their real problem is a lack of systems like TOR and Pantsir and now Pine and even Kornet in the 10km range HE model that would be excellent for anti drone use.

Ukrainian sources provide more detail on the sinking of the Russian cruiser RFS Moskva in April 2022

Took them this long to make these details up?

Sounds like consolidation... making sure the west can't be blamed, while claiming the success for themselves with still no evidence at all those missiles hit anything.

As I said at the time, this fire and then explosion sounds more like an S-300F launch failure than a hit from anti ship missiles.

This claim says their missiles fired at amphibious ships were shot down, but missiles fired at a cruiser got through they believe?

They lie and they lie.... so if they were successful against a cruiser, why did they stop using these effective weapons?

Why have they not used them since?

I am not sure how Patriot missiles would be effective in Ukraine, unless Kiev intends to deploy them near the frontlines. They could cause problems there but would be more vulnerable to attack. But in terms of defending against drone and missile swarms? Useless.

They will most likely put them around Kiev to try to protect the electricity grid while they try to fix it... with one or two systems venturing forward in the hope of getting some easy kills for propaganda purposes.

According to reports, Germany plans to deploy Patriots on Polish-Ukrainian border in order to create a more-protected air space over Western Ukraine. The plan is to engage on incoming Russian missiles over Western Ukraine, by firing air defence missiles from Polish territories.

They want to launch missiles from Poland at Russian missiles hitting targets in western ukraine then that is an act of war and article 5 is nullified because destroying Patriot batteries in Poland that are engaging Russian assets in the Ukraine is becoming party to the war.

“The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official”

Anti radiation missiles don't care about lines of a border on a map.

I took a few weeks break from the smo, just finished viewing an unhealthy amount of TG posts, and nothing has changed , so the latest is … whatever it was last time you checked.

What has changed is that a few weeks ago you doomsayers claimed the sky was falling because the Russians pulled back in a few places... claims the Orcs would be in Moscow by Christmas... or at least the Crimea... but it seems that the pull back was a good idea. In several places they are moving forward and are killing lots and lots of enemy forces with minimal losses of their own... they now seem to have enough troops to hold the ground they hold and move forward in places.

Go on and tell us how it was still the wrong thing to do and they should have pushed forward into enemy lines despite being outnumbered 20 to one because obviously the loss of thousands of Russian troops killed or captured is better than the humiliation of withdrawing to easier to defend positions while you rearm and regroup for when the ground gets hard...

Just for the records.
When this circus started, Ukrs had 250 pcs of much more potent S-300PT/PS, about 70 pcs of equally effective Buk-M, and some 40 stationary, yet modernized S-125. So more or less 25 times more systems than it is speculated to be supplied to them, and less effective than bulk of Ukro air defense as it was.
Oh yeah, that will be a gamechanger Laughing Laughing

Most of that was not even operational.

Patriot won't be any better because they lack training and will lack support for them.

In terms of effectiveness, Patriot can easily shot down any target that is seen by its radars. It's not a bad system. But for it to find a kalibr flying very low will be a hard task. They will also get the minimum, no bigger radars in option or command and control vehicles with other systems to help for the detection.

They will also lack protection by smaller systems like pantsir or tor.

Russia can test 2 attack on them. I guess 2 is the max number of system Nato can send. So obe with a swarm of geran-2 and the other one with kh-58 or kh-31. Or they can just keep sending 1 or 2 drones high so that it keep using its expensive missiles.

Patriot will be very effective like the Buk-M1, because it wont need to turn on its radar almost all. NATO AWACS will allow it to stage ambushes, and russian aircraft will find it almost impossible to detect them because their radar's never turned on. BTW 0 NASAMS or crotale have been confirmed lost so far.